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NewsTranscript
00:00Will Nifty hit 25,000 mark by December 31, 2024 or will it hit back to 24,000?
00:09Is another correction necessary for the stock market at this time?
00:14And which sector will be important for Nibesh next year in 2025?
00:21Hello and welcome viewers, my name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching Good Returns.
00:31And today we have Dr. Vikas Gupta from Omni Science Capital.
00:36Hello Dr. Gupta.
00:37Hello, how are you?
00:39I am good, how are you?
00:41Excellent.
00:42So, we have been seeing that there is a lot of boom in the market for a few days.
00:46However, this year so far Nifty and Sensex are both over 12%.
00:52Quick question for you Dr. Gupta to start with.
00:55What is your outlook for Nifty and Sensex?
00:58What is your forecast for 2025?
01:002025 should be much better earning season, first of all.
01:05So, when we say calendar 25, it's nearly FY26, there is only a quarter difference.
01:13So, for FY26 and calendar 25, the earnings should be very good.
01:18Especially, this year there has been a bit of a downturn, so chances are much better.
01:23Second, there are two more factors in this, why we expect that.
01:26That interest rates are also getting cut.
01:29So, there is a better effect on the economy, which means purchasing power of people increases,
01:35the investing power of companies increases, the government will also invest this time.
01:41The RBI of India will also cut interest rates and the Fed will also cut interest rates.
01:47So, because of both, there is a benefit on earnings and there will be a benefit on multiples too.
01:53So, according to that, we expect a 15-20% gain in earnings.
02:01Do you have any recommendations for the sectors or the stocks that investors should look out for?
02:09According to you, it will be better to invest in them.
02:12So, according to us, there are two sectors which are very promising to us as a firm.
02:19Banking is the most exciting sector for us, whether you talk about private banks or public sector banks.
02:27Both are amazingly well placed in our opinion.
02:34So, it is best to mix them.
02:36There is no need to take a position that we want public sector or private sector.
02:41Both have good opportunities.
02:43We can take a mix of both.
02:45We can explore.
02:47Secondly, and it is 35% of Nifty.
02:50So, it is no small sector.
02:53It is the most important sector according to the economy.
02:56You will see the credit growth of 15-16%.
03:01When you translate it to earnings, it should be even better.
03:05That is because the lending capacity has not been utilized yet.
03:10So, as the lending capacity of banks is utilized, their ROE improves.
03:15And by improving ROE, earnings will grow faster than the lending credit growth.
03:23So, we think this is the most juicy sector.
03:27We have made a portfolio.
03:29I am not talking about the portfolio.
03:31My point is that by creating a mix, you are getting a PE of 10.
03:35So, it is so cheap.
03:37The market of Nifty is 35% and Nifty is at 23 or 22 PE.
03:42And this is at a PE of 10.
03:44So, you can understand how good the opportunity is.
03:48And I have already told you about the growth.
03:50The lending credit growth of 15-16%.
03:53So, this is one opportunity.
03:55The second opportunity is in the power sector.
03:58Where again, you have to be careful.
04:01You have to look for the appropriate companies whose growth will be high.
04:07It will be more than double digits.
04:09It will be above 15.
04:11And which are cheap.
04:13So, again, just to give you a feel of what can happen.
04:17We have made a portfolio which has a PE of 11.
04:20Okay.
04:21So, this is again extremely favorable.
04:24Sorry, not 11.
04:27It has a PE of 14-15.
04:29So, which is again compared to the market.
04:31Much more attractive.
04:33While having growth rates higher than Nifty.
04:36So, these two sectors are looking very attractive to us.
04:40For the next year.
04:42Very insightful.
04:44Moving forward.
04:45For general people.
04:47People who are not into financial markets.
04:50Or are not following the stock market seriously.
04:54If there is a question for them.
04:56Many viewers also message me.
04:59That it will be right to invest in SIP.
05:02Or we should choose mutual funds.
05:04What's your thought in this?
05:06SIP means Systematic Investment Plan.
05:11So, whatever amount we can spare every month.
05:15We have to invest.
05:16We have to do it in the market.
05:18How to do it in the market?
05:19There are two methods.
05:20You can either do small case.
05:22Or you can do mutual funds.
05:24Or you can put your own in a set of stocks.
05:27These are all options.
05:29The point is to do it systematically.
05:31Or we can do it together.
05:33Okay.
05:34So, the market like India is going up on a long run basis.
05:40Economy is going to do much better 10 years from now.
05:44And if economy is going to do better.
05:46Then markets are also going to do much better 10 years from now.
05:49So, if you are talking about a young person.
05:52He is a layman.
05:53He has to invest for many years.
05:55So, whatever amount we can spare every month.
05:59We have to invest.
06:00So, that is the systematic part.
06:02But many people have not started investing in the market yet.
06:06So, they have 1 lakh, 5 lakh, 10 lakh.
06:09Whatever it is.
06:10Numbers don't matter.
06:11You have deposited it.
06:13But you are thinking of investing it.
06:15Now, what to do with that?
06:17There is no doubt in the monthly extra.
06:19As soon as it comes.
06:20You have to invest it systematically every month.
06:23The old one you have kept.
06:25But you have to take a risk on it.
06:27Equity market.
06:28You don't have any liabilities on it.
06:33You don't have any dependencies on it.
06:35Your risk profile is good.
06:37You can take a risk easily.
06:39You have to invest long term.
06:41So, I personally think of investing it all at once.
06:45At this time.
06:46Because the market is down at this time.
06:48Yes.
06:49Okay.
06:50And the upswing has started.
06:52We have been saying this for a long time.
06:55From November 15th to January 15th.
06:57As soon as the US elections get settled.
06:59The market will catch a clear trend.
07:01On the upside.
07:02And it seems that it has started.
07:04So, we will say that.
07:06When the long term market is up.
07:08And even now.
07:10It has started.
07:12So, this is a good point.
07:14When you can deploy it completely.
07:16Still, many people have these ifs and buts.
07:18No, no.
07:19Then.
07:20Year end tax.
07:22Loss.
07:23Harvesting.
07:24What will happen if the US does FIS?
07:26Then.
07:27What will happen if the budget of India comes?
07:29What will happen if the Fed says something?
07:31War will start somewhere.
07:33So, you don't know how the earnings of March will come.
07:36Right.
07:37So, if you have these certainties.
07:39The risk profile is a little lower.
07:42Means it is conservative.
07:43So, I will say.
07:45Somewhere between 3-6.
07:47If it is really conservative.
07:49Then in 12 tranches.
07:50The lump sum that has been kept.
07:52The old corpus.
07:54You can deploy it in 12 months.
07:57Slowly, slowly, slowly.
07:58Right.
07:59Right.
08:00Worst case.
08:01If you can do it, do it together.
08:03If you can't do it.
08:04Then in 3-4 tranches.
08:05Complete it in the next 3-4 months.
08:08Because once it will go up.
08:10Then you will feel that I missed the opportunity.
08:12Otherwise, it can go down too.
08:14No one can say this.
08:15Correct.
08:16You have to put a minimum of 5 years.
08:18Right.
08:19Nice.
08:20So, I hope the concept is clear.
08:22Yes.
08:23Yes.
08:24For me, I am sure that the viewers are also feeling the same.
08:28Before I let you go.
08:30Dr. Gupta.
08:31We have a huge social media following also.
08:35And our youngsters.
08:36Gen Z.
08:37Who are going to new offices.
08:39And you know.
08:40They have a lot of.
08:41They are getting to know new things.
08:43That invest money in stocks.
08:45Or what to do.
08:46What will happen in the long term.
08:47Open NPS.
08:48So, you know.
08:49They do earn.
08:51But they have responsibilities too.
08:54They have a commitment too.
08:55But they have a lot of savings too.
08:57So, there are a lot of questions.
08:59That you know.
09:00We are thinking about investments.
09:03But there is not a lot of money.
09:05In less money.
09:06In which there is more return.
09:08What advice do you have?
09:10So, you know.
09:11I want to forward this question to you.
09:13Saying.
09:14What would you advise for youngsters.
09:15Probably.
09:16Who are going to college.
09:17Doing part-time jobs.
09:18Or just have.
09:19They are like freshers.
09:20In a company.
09:21So, there are two things in this too.
09:23Like I said.
09:24Small case is one option.
09:26In small case.
09:27There are a lot of low ticket options.
09:29Like you have 1-2 lakhs.
09:31You have 50,000.
09:32So, there is an option.
09:33And you have less than that too.
09:36Let's say.
09:37I say.
09:38There is even 500 rupees.
09:39So, I will advise.
09:41That you see ETFs.
09:44Okay.
09:45So, basket of ETFs.
09:47In small case.
09:48You already get preformed.
09:49In which 4-5 ETFs are mixed.
09:51You are not understanding.
09:52You have to do it yourself.
09:54So, you can start with any Nifty ETF.
09:57Especially, this is true for today.
09:59Today.
10:00The large cap that I am seeing.
10:02Large cap is actually.
10:04It is cheaper than what it looks like.
10:06Like Nifty 22 has PE.
10:08But it is actually cheaper than that.
10:10I am saying this.
10:11Because the earnings of the banks.
10:13Are not actual earnings.
10:14Actual earnings.
10:15If you say normalized.
10:16Then higher than that.
10:17So, according to that.
10:18It comes around 20 or below that.
10:21So, if you start with Nifty ETF.
10:23Then there is no problem.
10:25And slowly.
10:26Other options of Nifty come in it.
10:29Nifty 50.
10:30Junior.
10:31Or next 50.
10:32Which is called.
10:33Below that.
10:34There is a mid cap.
10:35Below that.
10:36Small cap.
10:37Then.
10:38Nifty.
10:39Value.
10:40By doing this.
10:41Many types of ETFs.
10:43Are available today.
10:44And ETFs.
10:45Normally.
10:46You know.
10:47In 50 rupees.
10:48100 rupees.
10:49You can take a unit of one ETF.
10:50Some have such pricing.
10:51So, even.
10:52500,000.
10:535000 rupees.
10:54You can easily.
10:55Invest in a well diversified portfolio.
10:59Through the mechanism of ETFs.
11:02Or baskets of ETFs.
11:04So, that was very.
11:06Simply explained by you.
11:08Thank you Dr. Gupta.
11:09So much for.
11:10You know.
11:11Talking to us today.
11:12And viewers.
11:13Thank you for.
11:14Watching us.
11:15Thank you Dr. Gupta.