Budget 2025: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman देश का बजट पेश करेंगी. बजट को 1 फरवरी को संसद में पेश किया जाएगा. आम से लेकर खास तक सभी को वित्त मंत्री से काफी उम्मीदें हैं. खासकर टैक्स के लिहाज से कई डिमांड हैं. Share Market में Capital Gain Tax हो या फिर 80C के तहत टैक्स छूट को बढ़ाने की बात. बजट की उम्मीदों को लेकर GoodReturns की Senior Editor-Shrutee Sarkar ने इनवेस्टमेंट टेक प्लेटफॉर्म Hedged.in के CEO Rahul Ghose से खास बातचीत की, जिसमें बजट से पहले फोकस में रहने वाले सेक्टर्स समेत Sensex-Nifty के लिए अहम लेवल्स पर चर्चा हुई.
#Budget2025 #SensexResistance #NiftySupport #CapitalGainsTax #BudgetImpact2025 #StockMarketAnalysis #InvestorUpdates
#TopSectors2025 #FinancialPlanning #BudgetDayIndia
~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~HT.96~
#Budget2025 #SensexResistance #NiftySupport #CapitalGainsTax #BudgetImpact2025 #StockMarketAnalysis #InvestorUpdates
#TopSectors2025 #FinancialPlanning #BudgetDayIndia
~PR.147~ED.148~GR.124~HT.96~
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NewsTranscript
00:00The most awaited event of 2025, Budget 2025 is on February 1st.
00:12Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget in the parliament.
00:16From CAPEX to spending to income tax, investors are anxiously waiting for some kind of good
00:23news.
00:24Market has been very cautious.
00:26Hello and welcome.
00:27My name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns.
00:31Future-focused Budget 2025, in this episode, we are joined by Rahul Ghosh, CEO of Hedge.in.
00:38Hello Rahul.
00:39Hi, thank you for having me.
00:43Rahul, I'll go straight to the point.
00:47What is your overall expectations from the budget?
00:53So at the outset, let me tell you that every year we have so much of expectations from
00:58the budget.
00:59But unfortunately, it is more or less status quo that happens every year, barring few sectors.
01:05And I don't expect this year to be any different.
01:08The same pushes in terms of infrastructure, same push with respect to renewal energy,
01:13which was the flavor of last year as well, will continue this year.
01:17I also expect some kind of benefit to also come to electric vehicles, although renewable
01:23energy is a little broad.
01:25Electric vehicles, I expect some kind of benefits to come to.
01:29And FMCG as a sector, I believe, can benefit with respect to the current budget.
01:36But looking at the current market trajectory, no matter any populist measures that come
01:41about, unfortunately, every data pattern or indicator suggests that it won't be well
01:47received, unfortunately.
01:48Hopefully, I'm wrong on this one.
01:50Right.
01:51Moving on to markets, market has been very volatile.
01:56What is your expectations, overall expectations on the market before the budget on the day?
02:03What will be the support resistance of Sensex and Nifty on Feb 1st?
02:07As we all know, the market is going to be open on Feb 1st.
02:10So currently markets, as we speak, is trading somewhere around 23, 100, 23, 150 levels.
02:17And if you look at open interest data, which is a very popular data, people of India or
02:21people of multiple geographies look at, he's saying that the 23,000 is going to be a support
02:27owing to put writing happening over there.
02:29I come from a contrarian view.
02:31I don't expect 23,000 to be a support.
02:35On the contrary, if you see markets below 22, 900, there will be a far big slurry of
02:42investors which will get trapped, which will lead markets to another 500 points down.
02:47I expect the pause to not come at 23,000, but to come between 22, 300 and 23, 500.
02:54That is the level where there is an area of demand and I expect markets to pause there.
02:59Now, the unfortunate thing is if markets don't pause over there, that is if this band of
03:0522, 300 to 22, 500 is taken out, it's a 1400 point free fall to 21,000.
03:12So on the downside, we don't expect 23,000 to hold out.
03:16We expect another 500 point slide.
03:19When will this view get negated?
03:21Now this view will only get negated if there are two positive closings above 24,000, which
03:29is quite a way on the upside because it's almost 8, 900 points on the upside.
03:33If you see a bounce back to 23, 500 or 23, 600, one shouldn't get very excited.
03:43Why one more hypothesis paves way for what I'm saying is, if you look at texture, 2-3
03:49days markets are going up and one single day 300 points markets are falling.
03:53So saw point or 100 points, it's going up 1-2-3 days and on a single day, it takes it
03:58out with a single candle.
04:00So the texture broadly is very weak because every little inch you're trying to move up,
04:05there are heavy battle of sellers and of course, everybody knows how the FIIs are relentlessly
04:11selling as well.
04:12So unless we have two positive closings, that is strong candles over 24,000, we would continue
04:19to be in this downtrend.
04:20Got it.
04:21A follow up question on that, what are the top sectors, top stops to watch just before
04:28the budget?
04:30So before budget normally has a very same plateau like you will see railway stocks bouncing
04:37before the budget.
04:38And this will happen time and again, if you check any budget, railway stocks start buzzing
04:43towards before budget.
04:44But as a whole on 2025, one name which most of your viewers might get surprised me saying,
04:51I expect 2025 to be the year of HDFC Bank.
04:55I know the charts don't suggest so.
04:57I know I'll have five people fundamentally telling no, how is this possible?
05:02But four years of underperformance, I expect 2025 to outweigh and I expect HDFC Bank to
05:10do well.
05:11I also expect the FMCG sector like Hindustan Unilever and the likes of them to do well.
05:17In terms of the new age companies, I expect Zomato to do well.
05:20In fact, around 200 levels could be an attractive buy for Zomato as well.
05:27Purely from budget, again, EV, a sector that is very fastly developing.
05:33And because the intervention in batteries is scaling rapidly all over the world.
05:39Why was there so much scarcity around EV?
05:41Even today, if you notice, there is still a little resistance towards EV.
05:46And primarily that happens because people say that the battery lasts for four hours
05:50or five hours or six hours or 10 hours.
05:53It's a headache to charge.
05:54Now, because the runway for the battery is now moving out to be 1000 kilometers, moving
06:00out to be two weeks and three weeks, because battery manufacturers are springing up with
06:06new technology, EV's time, I would say is now and not in the last two years.
06:12People have been talking about it for two years, but I'm again a contrarian and I would
06:16say the next two, three years is what is going to do well for the EV segment, which is also
06:21something that I expect budgets to do well, give some leeway to that sector as well.
06:27Right.
06:28Right.
06:29Interesting.
06:30Very interesting.
06:31Before I let you go, Rahul, one more question.
06:34Do you expect any relief in taxation of capital gains that is expected in the budget?
06:40I mean, and if that happens, how will it impact investors?
06:46I highly doubt something like that would come.
06:48But if it does, it would definitely be a very, very positive supplies.
06:53And if you notice, I've used the word very two times.
06:57I would say that the trajectory of how the government has moved towards taxation, they
07:02went from zero to 10, they went from 10 to 12 and a half, 12 and a half to 15 for short
07:07term and so on and so forth.
07:09So the trajectory once on the upward has already been accepted by the people.
07:14Now, if there was a lot of backlash, they should have done it then and there.
07:19But now that it is an accepted norm and government or the exchequer is getting revenue out of
07:24it, which is an acceptable norm already for a year now, I highly doubt they would do away
07:30with it.
07:31I think there are some talks on to give a small on the way they calculate capital gains.
07:37I think that is doing the rounds.
07:39But that also I would be surprised if that comes about.
07:43In fact, I expect going forward in the next two, three years, capital gains to be at 15
07:48and 20% with respect to short and long equity minimum, I'm saying on the minimum side.
07:56So I don't expect that to happen really.
07:58Now, we spoke about markets, we spoke about tax, capital gains.
08:03I have one last question to ask you.
08:08Do you think, do you really think that we are heading towards Mixed Bharat and we can
08:14achieve it by 2047?
08:17I don't see any reason why not.
08:21If your viewers and all of you just track news, you will see there are so many companies
08:26that are porting back to India, their head offices, which are in, let's say a Singapore
08:31or the US, they're all coming back to India.
08:34And Modiji, our Prime Minister, even in an interview just recently said, and with great
08:42conviction, I must say that all those people who are not going to be in India are bachtane
08:47wale hain.
08:48So that kind of conviction, looking at the trajectory of what things are happening, looking
08:52at the growth of earnings over the years, if you see the growth of earnings over the
08:56years has also been quite, if I can use the word encouraging of that sorts.
09:02And India has always been in the land of innovation.
09:05So I don't foresee any challenges.
09:08In fact, I will stick my neck out and say that 2025 might not be a great year for the
09:12Nifty, but in let's say 2027, that is three calendar years from now, you should see Nifty
09:19at at least 70 to 80% higher than where we are right now.
09:24So about 40,000 levels.
09:26And this is me being conservative, by the way.
09:29Right, right.
09:30Very interesting insights Rahul.
09:33Thank you so much for joining us.
09:35That was Rahul Goswami, CEO Hedge.in.
09:38Thank you for watching and thank you for joining us Rahul again.
09:42Pleasure.
09:43Thank you so much.