Budget 2025: केंद्रीय बजट 1 फरवरी को पेश होगा. संसद में वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण (FM Nirmala Sitharaman) बजट को पेश करेंगी. शेयर बाजार की नजर भी बजट पर है, जिसमें ऐलानों का असर सेक्टर और शेयरों पर भी देखने को मिल सकता है. ऐसे में निवेशकों की नजर कैपिटल गेन टैक्स में बदलाव समेत अन्य मार्केट से जुड़े ऐलानों पर रहेगी. गुडरिटर्न्स की बजट स्पेशल सीरीज FUTURE FOCUS: BUDGET 2025 के नए एपिसोड में एडिटर श्रुति सरकार ने Bajaj Finserv के इक्विटीज के सीनियर फंड मैनेजर सोर्भ गुप्ता से बातचीत की. इसमें मार्केट सेंटीमेंट और इनवेस्टमेंट ट्रेंड समेत टॉप पिक और सेक्टर्स पर भी चर्चा हुई.
#budget2025, #investmenttrends, #marketsentiment, #budgetimpact, #prebudget2025, #sectorstowatch, #economicgrowth, #taxreforms, #stockmarket2025, #fiscalpolicy, #governmentspending, #budgetanalysis, #financialmarkets, #budgetexpectations, #budgetpredictions
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#budget2025, #investmenttrends, #marketsentiment, #budgetimpact, #prebudget2025, #sectorstowatch, #economicgrowth, #taxreforms, #stockmarket2025, #fiscalpolicy, #governmentspending, #budgetanalysis, #financialmarkets, #budgetexpectations, #budgetpredictions
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NewsTranscript
00:00Budget 2025 is one of the most important events of this year and on 1st February, Finance
00:14Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget in the Parliament.
00:17There is a lot of confusion in the stock market and investors are hoping to get some good
00:22news for some key sectors.
00:24Hello and welcome.
00:25My name is Shruti Sarkar and you are watching GoodReturns and in this future-focused Budget
00:312025 episode, we will talk to Saur Gupta, Senior Fund Manager, Equities Bajaj FinServ.
00:39Hello, Saur.
00:40Hi, Shruti.
00:41Everyone wants to know what are the expectations of the budget, but the question for you is
00:47what are the top sectors that we should watch ahead of the budget 2025?
00:54Sure, Shruti.
00:55First of all, I would like to thank you for inviting me to the show.
01:00This budget is very important because it will be the first full budget of this government
01:07which has been selected for the third time.
01:10So, it will set a lot of things for what the government's plans will be in the next five
01:15years.
01:16As you said, there has been a slight slowdown in the economy.
01:21So, everyone's eyes are on what the government is doing to tackle this slowdown.
01:26This will be the most important thing.
01:28Till now, in the last 10 years, the focus of the union government has always been towards
01:33CAPEX, towards capital expenditure.
01:36And they are safe from demand and social spending, which is very good for the long term.
01:41But this time, because there is a slight slowdown in the near term, we will have to see what
01:46the government is doing for the consumption push in the budget.
01:50So, there are two sectors that we think you need to pay a lot of attention to, on which
01:54some things will come.
01:56One is capital expenditure, how much the government grows its CAPEX.
02:00So, there is a need to pay attention to order book driven businesses.
02:03And on the other hand, if the government tries to boost consumption, then we like consumption
02:07as a pack very much.
02:09So, there we need to see where the allocations are good and which companies can benefit from
02:14government support.
02:16So, these two things are the primary focus of the two sectors.
02:19And the rest, event specific, news specific, different sectors will react differently.
02:24I would want to know that what do you think that the market sentiment is about the budget?
02:29Usually, we make some presumptions that the budget will be like this or like that.
02:34But what is the situation in the market?
02:36What impact can the budget have in the market?
02:38Last time, when the budget came in July, the market was a little surprised because the
02:43capital gains tax was increased.
02:45And the government did not allocate as much to spend on capital expenditure as the market
02:50expected.
02:51Now, the main expectation of the market is that how the government finances will move
02:58is very important, as I responded to you in the previous question.
03:02I think that will set the tone of the market.
03:05So, the expectation of the market is quite high because the near-term slowdown in consumption
03:11and the companies have highlighted that there is a sluggishness in the urban slowdown,
03:16while the rural is doing very well.
03:18So, government spending is such a thing that determines a lot of things in our country.
03:23So, if the government's spending comes towards consumption, then the revival will come soon
03:27and markets will love that.
03:29There is a lot of focus on taxes.
03:31There is a lot of fuss about income tax, especially on social media.
03:37Government has to take care of finances.
03:39So, it is a sure thing that the government cannot make everyone happy.
03:43But yes, if spending is on the consumption side, then growth will pick up soon in the
03:47near term.
03:48You talked about sluggish growth and also about tax relief, which is expected.
03:54What is the expectation that what kind of relief can we get for the middle-class corporate
04:03people, according to you?
04:05So, if you look at urban inflation, there are anecdotals.
04:12I am not talking about CPI data.
04:14But according to the anecdotals, the rental cost, food cost has increased rapidly in the
04:19last 6 months and a year.
04:21And because there is no relief in taxes and wages, high growth has also been low,
04:27there is clearly pressure on household budgets and you can see that in the consumption patterns.
04:32So, if there is relief in the income tax, the slabs of the income tax, the government
04:37thinks that they should be increased so that more money comes into the hands of the people
04:41and the government can spend, people can spend, then that will be an immediate relief.
04:46And staple companies, consumer companies or low-ticket consumption items, those companies
04:54should benefit from the immediate effect as soon as more money comes into the hands of
04:57the people.
04:58So, the ultimate aim is that if the government decides that people should have more money
05:02in their hands, especially urban middle-class salaried, then that will push the economy
05:08on the consumption side and should be helpful.
05:10Coming back again to the stock market, are small-cap and mid-cap stocks poised for growth
05:16post-budget 2025, in your view?
05:18Budget is essentially a journey, a direction.
05:22So, we should pay more attention to direction than allocation in the budget.
05:27In the last 3 years, especially till last June and in the previous 3 years, clearly,
05:33the spending pattern of the government was such that a lot of capital goods, defense
05:38and all these sectors' companies did very well.
05:40Their orders book grew very well in mid-caps and small-caps.
05:44Solar, windmill power and all these were the focus of the government.
05:47So, now we will have to see how the announcements of the government will be in the next 3-5 years.
05:52If I talk purely about mid- and small-cap, then the valuation comfort is less there.
05:58A lot of good news has been factored.
06:01A lot of stocks have run.
06:03Those stocks have outperformed large-caps.
06:05In a slowing economy, generally, mid-cap and small-cap is not a very safe place to be.
06:11But we will have to see if the government can bring back growth very quickly.
06:15Or the government's plan to revive growth through CAPEX is a bit back-ended.
06:21So, in the near term, it will be a bit sluggish.
06:23In such an environment, mid-cap and small-cap may not do so well.
06:26But if the government takes some steps to revive growth quickly,
06:30nominal GDP growth rate quickly crosses the double digit,
06:34then you will see that the earnings of mid-cap and small-cap will be upgraded and may not be good again.
06:38So, we will have to see that.
06:40But overall, if I consider the budget to be neutral,
06:45then large-caps are better placed than mid-cap and small-cap given the risk-reward.
06:50Sir, you spoke about capital gain tax changes in the previous budget.
06:57What is the expectation for this budget on that?
07:01The expectation is always that the government should not increase taxes.
07:05But the fact is that the government will have to take care of its finances.
07:10The government gets money from one side and has to spend it on the other.
07:14So, we will have to see what the government views on taxes.
07:18In July, they increased it.
07:20So, we will have to see if they increase it again or not.
07:23I feel that if not this time, then...
07:26Directionally, capital gains tax will gradually increase in our country.
07:31Maybe not this time.
07:32But we need to see that.
07:34The government can also make changes in STT.
07:37If you see, a large part of the government's revenue pool has started coming from capital gains and STT.
07:42So, the government will ensure that their collection pool remains.
07:46Because they have to spend a lot for public welfare.
07:49So, I am not expecting a relief at least.
07:52There will definitely not be a cut.
07:54Maybe they should not increase it this time.
07:56Because people's market returns are not high.
07:59And maybe there will be a little pressure that people have made a lot of noise on taxes.
08:03The expectation is that taxes should not be increased anymore.
08:06Right. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
08:09Moving on to FDIs.
08:12Guys, any boost to the FDIs you expect after the budget is announced?
08:17Shruti, the budget has become such that a lot of decisions are outside the budget.
08:25Like changing the norms of FDI.
08:28Or announcing a reform for FDI.
08:31For that matter, even the rates of GST.
08:33Now, they are not decided in the union budget.
08:35So, I don't think there will be any changes in FDI due to the budget.
08:40If the levels of FDIs are to change in any sector.
08:44So, that will not be part of the finance bill.
08:47I think it will be presented separately.
08:49And it will be discussed separately in the parliament.
08:52But it will not be part of the budget.
08:54A lot of things are outside the budget.
08:56We spoke about the stock market.
08:58We also spoke about capital gains, tax, etc.
09:01I have one question for you which is slightly different.
09:05Our inflation is slightly above 5%.
09:09Relatively high.
09:10Growth is slowing, like you said.
09:12And our repo rate is also above 6.5%.
09:16So, overall in this cycle.
09:20What do you think the government will push so that there is a balance to it?
09:28Because we are expecting that Trump is taking the oath today.
09:34His inauguration day.
09:36And maybe a lot of tariffs are coming on China.
09:40Things may or may not go well.
09:43So, for this, is India as a country ready?
09:47There is no problem of being ready.
09:51I think we are very well ready.
09:53And the good thing is that India's positioning is not like China.
09:58It seems that China will hit Mexico more.
10:01We export more services than goods.
10:04So, we don't think India has a big problem in all this.
10:07We need to add one more variable.
10:11There is a lot of strength in the US dollar.
10:14Because of which there is a lot of pressure in the currency.
10:16So, the monetary policy which is due in February.
10:19And the budget which will decide the fiscal policy.
10:22Both these things become very important.
10:24I think there is a very tightrope walk.
10:27That the government and the new governor of the RBI have to do.
10:31They have to balance inflation.
10:33They have to balance growth.
10:35And third, they have to balance the rupee also.
10:37So, this is a trilemma which they have to resolve together.
10:41I think they will be saved from spending a lot.
10:44I don't think they will give a lot of headroom in the fiscal.
10:47They will go in the direction of the Fiscal Tightness Responsibility Bill, FRBM.
10:52So, they won't leave a lot of room in the fiscal.
10:54They will do the expansion as soon as the economic growth comes.
10:58Because it can put pressure on the rupee.
11:00So, we think there will be a reallocation of resources in those things.
11:04Maybe the government will try to cut the long-term spending and boost the near-term demand.
11:09As much as there is headroom.
11:11But it won't be a good thing to do a lot of fiscal expansion and grow.
11:15And maybe the government won't do that.
11:16Before I let you go, I have one final question.
11:20What are your pre-budget 2025 stock picks?
11:25And which sectors will likely benefit the most post-budget according to you?
11:32Shruti, our sector positioning is a little longer term.
11:38Maybe it is not related to the budget.
11:41Yes, we are quite positive on consumption as a space.
11:45Because we feel that the levels have reached a point where the government will have to help in consumption.
11:52Especially in the urban consumption side.
11:54Rural consumption, mind you, is picking up very well in the last 3 years.
11:59For the first time, there is a good cyclical uptick.
12:01And consumption stocks are available at valuations which we have not seen in the last 5 years.
12:07Attractive valuation plus triggers coming.
12:09So, the budget can be a trigger where the consumption stocks get a boost if the government spends.
12:14So, we are positive on that sector.
12:16The second sector we are positive on is pharma.
12:19Pharma is not affected by the budget of India or US tariffs.
12:25Some strong demand scenarios are being built for some Indian companies in pharma.
12:30So, we like the pharma sector a lot.
12:33We feel that things are fine there.
12:35The third sector where we are slowly becoming more constructive is IT services.
12:40The way things are happening in the US, the demand for Indian IT companies will increase.
12:46And their margins will get support from the rupee depreciation.
12:49So, that is also a sector that we are liking.
12:51So, for now, we feel that these 3 sectors are fine.
12:54And then we will have to see what is the positioning of China in the tariff war.
12:58What happens to the metal stocks because of that.
13:00But we expect that the call on consumption of overweight should get a boost from the pure pure budget.
13:07And that is a sector one should watch.
13:09And consumption is a very wide sector.
13:11There are staples, autos, QSR, food, everything.
13:16So, I feel that the budget should help in that space.
13:20Very nice, Saurabh.
13:21It was amazing talking to you today.
13:23That was Saurabh Gupta, Senior Fund Manager, Equities, Bajaj Pinsar.
13:28Thank you viewers for watching us.
13:30Thank you, Saurabh.
13:32Thank you, Shruti.