MEDI1TV Afrique : Questions d'Actu: zoom sur la guerre commerciale entre les USA et la Chine - 02/12/2024
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00:00Ladies and gentlemen, good evening and welcome to Questions d'Actu.
00:18Donald Trump is already announcing his first economic measures after his investiture in
00:24January.
00:25The White House Secretary of State is planning to increase the 25% customs rights on products
00:30coming from Canada and Mexico, however linked by a free trade agreement.
00:35China is also in the limelight with a 10% increase.
00:39These are the three largest commercial partners of the United States.
00:44In reaction, China has stated that no one will win a trade war.
00:50The German Minister of Economy, Robert Abeck, called on Europe to prepare for similar announcements,
01:07saying that the European Union should react in a united way and clearly show that everyone
01:13was losing.
01:14Let's witness the return of trade wars, we'll talk about it tonight with you, Mr. Mustapha
01:21El-Jey, you are a professor of economics at the Hassan II University.
01:25Good evening, thank you for being with us.
01:27Yes, good evening, Mrs. Fidesci, very happy to be among you tonight.
01:31With us also, Mr. Hicham Mouattadid, you are an expert in political strategy.
01:37Thank you for accepting our invitation.
01:39Thank you for the invitation as well.
01:43So, gentlemen, we are going to talk about these announcements, these measures announced by
01:48Donald Trump, the increase in customs taxes.
01:52So, what is the reaction in relation to Mexico, Canada and China, Mr. El-Jey?
02:00So, as you said in your preamble, indeed, and we already knew it in the first mandate,
02:06President Trump's policy is openly protectionist.
02:11So, he has, as you know, in his intentions, he is going to increase customs rights for
02:20partner countries, his first partners, that is, Canada, Mexico and China, by 25%.
02:28He is going to add 10% more of the taxes that he had taken before, which I think the
02:33Biden administration has maintained, 10% more, all this for, as he said, America first,
02:40to make America great again, to protect his economy and show his protectionist will.
02:49This, of course, will have consequences on a loss of GDP worldwide.
02:57It will also give a new redeployment of global trade and, of course, as has been said, now,
03:06I think that China was very wise in saying that no one is interested in this trade war,
03:12in the interest of no one.
03:14But we will see, in fact, in January, when things like the mandate,
03:19when Mr. Trump will start his mandate.
03:22So, a redeployment of global trade.
03:26Mr. Muath said, as I said, Mexico and Canada are also concerned,
03:30knowing that these two countries already have free trade agreements with the United States.
03:35What does this imply?
03:36What does Europe have to expect today to be imposed in its turn?
03:41First of all, to answer the first part of the question concerning the relations between the United States
03:50or the impact of this Trump decision regarding Canada and Mexico,
03:56we saw quickly how the Canadians and even the Mexicans really quickly got together at their level,
04:04each at their level, to prepare to face these serious economic threats.
04:10Why? Because they understand, in fact, in the culture,
04:14they understand that Trump, when he made these decisions,
04:18in his mind, it is the fact of imposing himself as a negotiator.
04:25He did not really move forward in order to destabilize, in fact,
04:29the economic relations between the United States, Ottawa and Mexico,
04:33but it is much more, in fact, in the fact of opening the ground for a new negotiation
04:40to these agreements between the United States, Canada and Mexico.
04:44Now, as far as the Europeans are concerned, I think the Europeans have understood it so quickly,
04:50they are already preparing to really sit down at the table with Trump's team
04:57and especially to really prepare their economy to adapt to the new energy of the White House.
05:04So, renegotiating the agreements already in place today,
05:09and then a Europe that is preparing to any measure as well.
05:13Mr. Le Gea, you were saying earlier,
05:16so China, there was this response from China that said
05:19that the war was not in the interest of anyone, the trade war, of course.
05:23Why today would Donald Trump impose taxes that,
05:28perhaps in the short term, could favor the American economy,
05:30but in the medium and long term, could prove to be harmful?
05:36Well, listen, I think, as he said, it is to protect his local industry.
05:42He talked about the automotive industry, he talked about several types of industries,
05:48he even talked about localization.
05:50So the idea, as you know, China is a bit of a world factory,
05:55and I think its first client is the United States.
05:58And that's why Trump would like to punish, so to speak, China.
06:05Because there are even readings where we see that Trump blames China for the entry of drugs.
06:17There were no punishments when it was planned for certain activities.
06:21And even if there were a number of drugs coming in,
06:24for Mexico, he said that they should stop everything that is illegal immigration.
06:30And so I think, as your guest said, it is to give time,
06:35and perhaps to have weapons, to better negotiate a partnership
06:40that first favors the American industry,
06:45since Trump made a lot of promises to make the United States great again,
06:52and create employment and re-energize a little bit of growth in the United States.
06:58Several promises that Donald Trump intends to keep.
07:01Mr. Muathiadi, is it that today, with this re-election of Trump,
07:05we find ourselves in a new phase when we talk about geopolitics, world economy?
07:10Can we today dissociate geopolitics and economy with Trump's return?
07:20I don't think we can dissociate geopolitics and economy,
07:23because, quite simply, the economy is a factor in the international geopolitical dynamic.
07:29Now, it is a new culture that will return to the White House.
07:34We already experienced a pre-Trump culture during his first term,
07:39but now, with his return, he knows very well that it is his last term,
07:43but also with a very large political majority within the various American institutions,
07:51which will really try to push him to impose,
07:54especially during the first two years before the partial elections,
07:58to impose as much Republican culture as possible,
08:03whether within the United States, but also internationally,
08:07on the files that interest him the most.
08:10Because we know very well that Trump is much more interested in the United States and the American economy
08:16than in positioning himself or losing his political time
08:19in positioning the United States or repositioning the United States internationally.
08:25It is true that today we are witnessing a certain return of strong regionalization,
08:31a certain return of geopolitical regionalization
08:36that will really be in favor of international multipolarity.
08:41But will Trump's return accelerate this regionalization or weaken it?
08:47That is the question.
08:48Why? Because despite the fact that Trump will try to militate towards what we call American policies
08:57that will favor the American economy,
08:59but at the same time, we are witnessing another American force
09:03that does not want to lose influence at the international level,
09:06because it does not want the American interests at the international level,
09:09it actually protects the international economy of the United States.
09:13What about today, Mr. Muathiadid, sorry to interrupt you,
09:17but what about the conflicts and the impact they could have on the world economy,
09:23but also American?
09:24I am talking about what is happening today in the Middle East and also in Ukraine.
09:28Will it influence the economic uncertainty we are living in today?
09:33Will it influence in the same way with Trump in front of the stage
09:38as President of the United States, the world, as it has been under Biden?
09:44Well, I think that, as I said, for the Republicans,
09:48it is much more the economic issues or the economic dynamics
09:52that interest them more in international geopolitics
09:54than American diplomacy or American policy at the international level.
09:58Now, as for the wars, I think that, as Trump promised,
10:03and we expect that, that among his first decisions, his first actions,
10:07is that he will try to close or close as quickly as possible
10:11this war between Russia and Ukraine,
10:14but also to put pressure on Israel to stop the war in the Middle East.
10:19Why? Because quite simply, regarding geopolitics in the Middle East,
10:23Trump wants to revive his Abraham Accords, which the Republicans are proud of,
10:28and to revive them, we really need to stop the war
10:32so that we can bring in as many actors as possible in this region.
10:36As for the war between Russia and Ukraine,
10:42they know very well that relations between Trump and Vladimir Putin's administration
10:51are much closer than they were under President Biden.
10:56And that's why today I think that the Trump administration
11:01will try to remove the military presence, but also political,
11:06as much as possible from international affairs
11:09to give a new economic breath,
11:13whether in the United States,
11:16but also in the presence of the Americans in several international economic fields.
11:23Mr. El-Jaye, the FMI predicts a global growth of about 3.2% in 2025,
11:31the same figure as in 2024,
11:33so we expect that the growth will remain unchanged
11:37despite the new dynamic that is being triggered.
11:43The latest report of the FMI, even of the World Bank,
11:48speaks of an atony at the level of global growth.
11:52There will be practically a stagnation for growth,
11:57and this rate will affect practically 60 countries worldwide,
12:06that is, 60 countries out of the 690 concerned.
12:13They explain all this by several phenomena.
12:16First, there is a lack of visibility,
12:18tensions between the strategists are still there in the Middle East,
12:24we see that this war between Ukraine and Russia is smooth,
12:29and there is hope, as you said and as you indicated,
12:33that one of Trump's commitments is to try to stop these two wars that are disturbing the world.
12:39There are also very important consequences and climate damage that have been mentioned.
12:45There are droughts, floods.
12:48So I think that 2025, according to the forecasts at the global level,
12:54is a year when growth is not on the agenda.
12:59They will detail zone by zone, by country by country.
13:03Globally, perhaps we will come back to the MENA zone,
13:06where we are part of.
13:09There is an unexplained, perhaps we will have the opportunity to speak
13:12and enter a little bit into the Moroccan communities.
13:14Mr. El-Jaye, to stay in the growth of Morocco today,
13:19how do you place yourself in this geopolitical and international economic context?
13:24We are talking about a growth of 4.5%, an optimistic figure today.
13:32The FMI report highlights that Morocco is doing much better,
13:38its economy is more resilient compared to its environment.
13:41And we can see that, because Morocco, as you know,
13:44has long-term structural challenges that await it by 2030.
13:49Yes, 4.5% seems ambitious.
13:53To be honest, all of this will unfortunately depend on the climatic conditions.
13:58We are still working on the PLF, on a year when we will have an average of 70 million hectares.
14:07I hope we will do it.
14:10Now you can see that there is some delay,
14:13there are some small concerns that are settling in.
14:15There is also, outside the agricultural sector,
14:18there are many sectors that have shown dynamism,
14:21such as the manufacturing industry, the automobile industry,
14:25the tourism sector, public investments.
14:29The state will commit around 345 to 350 billion dirhams.
14:36So, there is a will to have reached this growth rate.
14:42Unfortunately, there is a big delay,
14:44there is a big unknown, which is therefore the climatic conditions,
14:47which, unfortunately, for several decades,
14:50we will have to seriously think about how to deal with it,
14:53given our GDP.
14:55The climatic conditions, therefore a difficulty that we have been facing for a few years,
14:59already in Morocco, as you just said.
15:01Donald Trump, who is climate-skeptical,
15:03by the way, to come back to the President.
15:05Which does not fix things.
15:07But we will see, in any case, what will happen in 2025.
15:12We are just discussing it with you, Mr. Mohamed Sadid.
15:16You said it earlier,
15:18we hope, in any case, that with the re-election of Donald Trump,
15:21maybe we will succeed.
15:23We have hope, in any case, for the end of the wars,
15:26whether in the Middle East or perhaps in Ukraine,
15:28where he had promised to be able to resolve these conflicts.
15:32Precisely, as regards inflation in general,
15:38the inflation that is also imported to Morocco,
15:40can we expect a stabilization that remains,
15:44whether in Morocco or elsewhere?
15:47I don't think that the world population,
15:51whether in the United States, in Europe, in Africa,
15:53expects that the leaders put a lot more policies
15:58that slow down this inflation.
16:00But all of this depends on political instability
16:03and also on geopolitical dynamics,
16:05whether at the level of the United States
16:07as the world's leading power,
16:09but also at the regional level.
16:11As you know, the world population has really experienced
16:13a lot of events since the pandemic
16:15that have impacted this factor of inflation.
16:22But today, I think that with global geopolitics
16:27and with Trump's return to the United States,
16:29and especially with his protectionist vision,
16:31it could have a negative impact
16:33up to a certain point
16:35on a certain number of regions internationally
16:37that depend on the American economy.
16:39Now, is Trump going to go as far as possible
16:41from his protectionist economic policy
16:43to negatively impact a certain number of regions
16:45internationally,
16:47or was it just what we call a speech
16:49for the electoral campaign
16:51and once in the White House,
16:53we become much more pragmatic,
16:55much more concrete,
16:57and above all,
16:59much more in the political realm,
17:01as we say.
17:03I think that Trump and the Trump administration
17:06know very well
17:08that there is a difference
17:10between the context
17:12of the electoral campaign
17:14and the international reality.
17:16In fact, we can set up
17:18a certain number of programs
17:20that can be seen as protectionist,
17:22but not really
17:24to the point
17:26where we are going to lock ourselves
17:28or they are going to put walls
17:30around the American economy
17:32and disconnect it completely
17:34as he repeated
17:36during the electoral campaign.
17:38I certainly think
17:40that there is going to be
17:42a positive economic boost
17:44as we have already seen
17:46during his first term
17:48and several economic indicators
17:50have shown it,
17:52but the United States
17:54remains an international economic regulator.
17:56It is very important
17:58that the Americans keep their place
18:00as an economic power
18:02and as a balance factor
18:04of the international geopolitical economy.
18:06I don't think
18:08that the Trump administration
18:10is going to go so far
18:12as to value
18:14the promises
18:16of the electoral campaign
18:18because there is clearly
18:20a difference between
18:22the context of the electoral campaign
18:24and the reality of the international
18:26geopolitical economy.
18:28That's why I said
18:30that Trump would like
18:32to impose 25%
18:34for Ottawa or Mexico.
18:36It is much more
18:38in his mind
18:40as a negotiator
18:42and the Canadians and Mexicans
18:44know it very well.
18:46That's why they organized themselves
18:48to say that we have to give
18:50positive signals
18:52to the new Trump administration
18:54so that he can't really go forward
18:56with his promise of 25%.
18:58He wanted to see
19:00these exchanges between
19:02these two neighbors
19:04to give even more
19:06privileges to the Americans.
19:08Give the tone
19:10in terms of negotiations
19:12of measures
19:14that could impact
19:16the neighboring regions
19:18negatively,
19:20economic measures
19:22that could also impact
19:24the United States in the long term
19:26We are talking about a protectionist regime
19:28with Donald Trump.
19:30Let's remember that Donald Trump
19:32also promised to devalue the dollar
19:34to boost exports
19:36which could be good in the short term
19:38but in the medium and long term
19:40it could be dangerous
19:42for the American economy.
19:44In this context, Mr. Jay,
19:46if we were to talk
19:48about these measures that have been announced
19:50about interest rates
19:52and how all this could evolve
19:54Let's remember that at the end of the term
19:56with Biden
19:58interest rates dropped
20:00and there was an announcement
20:02of a new future decrease.
20:04In Morocco, we remained cautious
20:06in terms of interest rates.
20:08How could this evolve?
20:10As far as interest rates are concerned
20:12we start
20:14with what is happening
20:16in the global context.
20:18There are indeed some decisions
20:20with downward trends
20:22as we have seen
20:24in the United States
20:26and also in the BCE
20:28in Frankfurt
20:30because interest rates
20:32started to calm down a bit.
20:34As far as Morocco is concerned
20:36there has been a lot of caution
20:38so we still have
20:40interest rates before
20:42dropped from 25.2 to 75.
20:44And we stayed there
20:46because the White House
20:48had said
20:50that inflationary tensions
20:52are still there.
20:54So the war is on the horizon
20:56the conflict in the Middle East
20:58at some point
21:00we were very worried
21:02I think all the decisions yesterday
21:04to stop what is happening in Lebanon
21:06I hope that with the arrival of Trump
21:08or even before, Biden did his best
21:10to find a solution
21:12also in Gaza
21:14and stop these tensions.
21:16So geostrategic tensions are still there
21:18and to be honest
21:20the lack of visibility is still there
21:22and Ban Ki-moon has rightly said
21:24we are maintaining but we are observing.
21:26We are following very closely
21:28we will see the decision in December.
21:30In my opinion
21:32I think that rates
21:34for 2025
21:36if they don't drop
21:38they will be maintained at this level.
21:40Now we will see
21:42how these geostrategic tensions
21:44will evolve at the beginning of the year
21:46and we all hope that
21:48the conflict will stop
21:50the conflict also
21:52in Ukraine with Russia
21:54will stop.
21:56I think that inflationary tensions
21:58will calm down
22:00and of course the central banks
22:02will drop more
22:04for a real economic recovery
22:06because in Morocco, as I said at the beginning
22:08we are doing better
22:10than the neighbouring countries
22:12we have big structuring projects
22:14there is an investment chart
22:16there is a will
22:18with big royal structuring projects
22:20to boost the economy
22:22and I think that there will be
22:24a global context
22:26that will support these big structuring projects
22:28in Morocco.
22:30From my personal point of view.
22:32We will see
22:34for me it will stay the same
22:36we will see how
22:38at the beginning of the year with Trump's arrival
22:40things will evolve.
22:42A geopolitical tension
22:44that persists.
22:46A global economic uncertainty
22:48that is still floating
22:50and continues to float.
22:52In this context,
22:54how does Europe place itself?
22:56Some analysts talk about
22:58a Europe that is starting to weaken
23:00economically speaking.
23:02A Euro that is also weakening
23:04compared to the dollar.
23:06A Europe that is an important
23:08commercial partner for Morocco.
23:11What could impact
23:13the Moroccan economy?
23:15Yes, of course.
23:17In fact,
23:19Europe and Morocco have
23:21close economic, political
23:23and cultural ties.
23:25I think that the two economies
23:27are very linked
23:29and that whether it is Morocco or Europe
23:31one needs the other
23:33in this new dynamic
23:35around the Mediterranean.
23:37What worries Europe today
23:39is the security problems
23:41and the cultural hegemony
23:43that is trying
23:45to work again
23:47because that is what is
23:49weakening internationally.
23:51Today, the Europeans
23:53know that if they can't
23:55build a cultural,
23:57homogeneous,
23:59economic and cultural
24:01security bloc
24:03they can't impose themselves
24:05as a regional power
24:07that can guarantee
24:09and protect
24:11the interests of its citizens.
24:13Today, Europe needs
24:15Morocco more than ever.
24:17Why?
24:19Because with the return
24:21of the African powers
24:23this continuum
24:25that has been forgotten
24:27in global geopolitics
24:29we see that today
24:31Africa is taking
24:33more and more strategic
24:35positions in geopolitics
24:37whether it is the Americans,
24:39the Russians, the Chinese
24:41and even the Europeans.
24:43I think that at this level
24:45Morocco has a big role to play
24:47the Europeans know that
24:49and that is why there is
24:51this return to Rabat
24:53so that they can build
24:55and solidify their economic
24:57and political ties
24:59in order to work together
25:01on the African market.
25:03I think that the Europeans
25:05in Brussels need Rabat
25:07much more than
25:09they do today.
25:11Why?
25:13Because, as I mentioned,
25:15Africa will take
25:17a strategic place
25:19in the geopolitics of tomorrow
25:21and the regional power
25:23that will settle
25:25rationally, economically
25:27and politically in Africa
25:29is the one that will take
25:31advantage of the other powers
25:33including the Chinese,
25:35Washington and Brussels.
25:37That is why Rabat
25:39is in a strong position
25:41and a platform
25:43to enter Africa
25:45and the big capitals
25:47like France.
25:49Thank you Mr. Hicham.
25:51I remind you that you are an expert
25:53in political strategy.
25:55It was a pleasure to have you
25:57with us tonight.
25:59Mr. Mustafa El-Jaye,
26:01you are a professor of economics
26:03at the Hassan II University in Casablanca.
26:05It was a pleasure to have you with us tonight.
26:07It was a pleasure to share.
26:09Thank you for the invitation.
26:11This is the end of this evening's Q&A.
26:13Thank you for your loyalty.
26:15See you tomorrow
26:17with a new episode.
26:29www.aclu.org