MEDI1TV Afrique : Zoom sur l'exercice démocratique dans le monde en 2024 - 31/12/2024
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00:00This programme contains strong language and adult humour.
00:16Good evening, ladies and gentlemen.
00:18Welcome to this new episode of the special retrospective series
00:22on the democratic exercise in the world in 2024 in the United States.
00:26It is Donald Trump's great return to the White House.
00:30Will he be able to give back his letters of nobility to America as he promised?
00:35And what does the return of the nationalist mean on geopolitics and the world economy?
00:40And then in France, a key year in the political history of the Fifth Republic.
00:45What prospects after a year of tug-of-war between the Elysée and the National Assembly?
00:512024, the year of all elections, has seen the birth of a new ruling class in Africa,
00:55notably the example of the duo Diomafi-Franco at the head of Senegal
01:00and the implications of their neo-Pan-Africanist policies.
01:03In short, a retrospective of one of the biggest electoral years in modern history with our guests.
01:09First, from Paris, I have the pleasure of welcoming editorialist and political analyst Mustafa Tosa.
01:14Good evening, Mustafa. Thank you for joining us.
01:17Good evening, Khadija. Thank you for the invitation.
01:19Thank you for accepting it.
01:21And with us from Quito in Ecuador, the expert in political strategy Hicham Moet.
01:28Good evening and welcome to this show as well.
01:32Thank you for the invitation, Mrs. Mehsen.
01:342024 is the year when almost half of the world's population was called to the polls.
01:43But the election, or at least the scrutiny that attracted the most attention,
01:50was of course the presidential elections in the United States.
01:54And this certainly had an impact on, first of all, the economy, but also on global geopolitics.
02:04Mustafa Tosa, is Washington's place today in global diplomacy after the re-election of Donald Trump?
02:12Yes, it is true that we can call it the queen election.
02:16It is this American election that everyone followed because it impacts the whole planet.
02:22Africa, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, all corners of the world followed this election
02:32because, depending on the winner, they would be impacted.
02:36And indeed, the return of Donald Trump was not acquired on paper.
02:42It was said that the Democrats could have re-embarked through Kamala Harris,
02:48but in the end, the Republicans and Donald Trump in person managed to fold the match in an extraordinary way,
02:57which gives us an America that is self-confident, dominant, and capable of acting on major events.
03:06Moreover, this is Donald Trump's candidacy promise,
03:10and this is what was confirmed by Donald Trump when he was elected to the White House.
03:16He is going to make a number of decisions that are going to put an end to a number of conflicts,
03:23including the major conflict that is currently at the heart of Europe,
03:28which is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
03:30So, we are waiting…
03:32Is this still a campaign promise, or does Trump have the tools to realize these promises,
03:44to put an end to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict?
03:51Do you think he can do it today?
03:54I don't think it's just a promise in the air,
03:57because Donald Trump has the means to weigh on this conflict,
04:02to force his war partners to go to a negotiating table,
04:08and these means are truly American.
04:12He has threatened several times to drastically reduce American military aid to Ukraine,
04:20as well as his economic aid,
04:22to force Vladimir Zelensky to reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin.
04:26And we must remember that even before Donald Trump's victory,
04:31when the White House was…
04:34when America was fully managed by the Republicans,
04:40by the Democrats,
04:42the Republicans were stuck,
04:44they were putting a stop to their military aid to Ukraine.
04:49So, for Donald Trump, he believes,
04:52and his entourage firmly believes,
04:55that by speaking a language of truth about military and economic aid,
04:59this will cool down the enthusiasm,
05:02and will force Kiev and Moscow to agree and go to a political solution.
05:08The whole point is to know if the European Union
05:11can replace this possible absence of aid from America.
05:17But everything indicates that nothing will be the same as before,
05:21and that anyway, in one way or another,
05:23this war has tired everyone,
05:26economically and geostrategically,
05:29and it is time to put an end to it.
05:31Donald Trump's Republican administration has promised to do so,
05:35and by the way, everyone is preparing for this phase and this sequence
05:40where America will be able to withdraw little by little
05:45to let Kiev and Moscow speak a diplomatic language,
05:50to seek a political compromise,
05:53with the help of the Europeans or not,
05:56this is the question that arises today.
05:59So, it is certain that today, Donald Trump, Hisham Wachadid,
06:04I want to say, the road is paved for all the decisions that Donald Trump would make,
06:09because let's remember that he was the third winner in these elections,
06:13it's really unprecedented,
06:16in any case, it's been a very long time,
06:18it's since Per Bush that the Republicans have not had so many wins in one election,
06:24so the two chambers of the American Parliament,
06:27moreover the Oval Office,
06:30and moreover a Trump cabinet that is not the most anticipated,
06:35well, very anticipated in the sense of decisions,
06:38but in any case, we did not expect the list of the composition of Donald Trump's government.
06:44How is this going to change the game for the international scene,
06:51for the role of the United States on the international scene,
06:53and also to make America great again?
06:58As you mentioned, Mrs. Ehsan,
07:00Trump's return destabilized the international geopolitical map
07:07because the decision-makers or the international leadership know very well
07:11that this return from Trump will really be a return that will rethink the dynamics of the Americans
07:18or the United States on the international scene.
07:21Now let's really come back to the political architecture that will reign after January 20,
07:27or after Trump will officially be the president of the Americans.
07:33There are three dimensions.
07:35There is Trump the character,
07:37there is also the Republican Party,
07:39but there is also the real American politics.
07:42These are the three dimensions,
07:44the three lenses that will govern during the Trump mandate.
07:51And I think that these three dimensions
07:55will really be part of an international dynamic
07:58that will be guided by a certain personification of American politics
08:04as desired by Trump.
08:06But at this level, you have to be very careful.
08:08There is not really only the Trump vision
08:11that will be dominant during his mandate,
08:14because there is behind the whole machine of the Republicans,
08:18but there are also the strategic commitments of the American state
08:21that are part of a strategic continuity of the Americans on the international scene.
08:26Yes, but even Trump said that he was going to put an end to the ambitions of this establishment
08:32that you just mentioned without naming it.
08:34But he said that he was going to put an end to that.
08:37Are these promises that only those who believe in it commit?
08:41I think that at this level,
08:43we have to distinguish between promises in an electoral context
08:47and speeches in an electoral context,
08:49but also what we call the political reality of international issues.
08:53I think that at this level, Trump knows very well
08:56that we really have to play on two levels,
09:00what we call a seller's speech,
09:02which is really elaborated properly for the period of the electoral campaign.
09:07But once he is officially president of the United States,
09:11you will see that he will really adjust his speech
09:14according to the commitments of the United States on the international scene,
09:19but also according to this balance of power relations
09:22within the United States, even within the United States.
09:27Now, as far as the second part of your question is concerned,
09:31regarding Trump's nominations,
09:33he has already mentioned that there is only the criterion of fidelity
09:37that was really behind his nominations.
09:40Trump really wants to be surrounded by people who are faithful to him,
09:44and not only the political competence that is behind his nominations.
09:48Why? Because he wants to avoid certain balance of power
09:53that was during his first term
09:55and that cost him, in terms of time,
09:58to rename a number of leaders around him during his term,
10:04which really pushed him to lose a lot of political weight within the Americans,
10:10but also a certain political instability for the Americans.
10:15Including this famous Mike Pence, certainly, but he is not the only one.
10:21From the United States, we move on to France.
10:24France, a new year, 2024, Mustapha Tosa,
10:28dissolution of the National Assembly,
10:31legislative elections that followed the dissolution,
10:34naturally and logically,
10:36and then a lot of prime ministers in one year.
10:41Yes, it is true that, if we can use the British expression,
10:47it was an anus horribilis for Emmanuel Macron.
10:52It is a year where he lost all his charm, all his power,
10:58where he dragged the country into a kind of political crisis
11:03that we do not know how to get out of until now.
11:06So, it all starts with a defeat in the European elections.
11:11A defeat in the European elections that had direct consequences,
11:17that the President of the Republic disappointed the Assembly
11:21to call for a legislative election.
11:24This legislative election, he already had no majority,
11:28he lost the little majority he had.
11:31And so, we have a national assembly that enters massively into parliament
11:36and a more and more powerful radical left.
11:39He refuses to respond favorably to the request of the left,
11:46to govern because he had the largest alliance in parliament.
11:53He entrusts the government to a former right-wing politician,
11:58Michel Barnier, who had a lot of trouble forming this government.
12:02And once he formed this government,
12:04the first time he wanted to pass the budget, he used 49-3.
12:08And at that moment, the two extremes, left and right,
12:13vote dissolution and the government falls.
12:16And Emmanuel Macron finds himself looking for another Prime Minister.
12:20Another Prime Minister that he wanted to name Sébastien Lecornu
12:25or at the limit someone else.
12:27A centrist arrives, François Bayrou, who imposes himself on the Elysée,
12:31who blackmails him.
12:33Either you name me Prime Minister or I leave the central bloc
12:36and I participate in the regime crisis in general.
12:39And here is Emmanuel Macron, who finds himself forced to name François Bayrou,
12:45who has just named a government,
12:47and who knows pertinently that he will not have a majority in parliament
12:51and that at the slightest shake-up he could fall.
12:54So this is a year when Emmanuel Macron was completely wrong on the internal level.
12:59And we have a government that can fall at any time.
13:04And if François Bayrou's government falls,
13:06I don't know, in a month, two months or three months,
13:09we enter full-foot into what can be called a regime crisis.
13:15What does a regime crisis mean?
13:17It means that there are voices that will rise all over France
13:22to ask that Emmanuel Macron, the one who caused this crisis,
13:28can unsew it himself.
13:30Namely, resign and organize anticipated presidential elections.
13:35So we are really in this tunnel.
13:38And for Emmanuel Macron, things are not easy.
13:41And for the French, there is a suspense
13:44and an unprecedented political activity for many years.
13:49Yes, but there is a regime crisis,
13:51but the regime crisis is not just a political crisis, Moustapha Tossa.
13:54There are the premises of a regime crisis
13:57that was announced long before the dissolution of the National Assembly.
14:03Yes, so the regime crisis was accentuated
14:08from the moment when Emmanuel Macron
14:11did not fully respect the will of the French during the legislative elections.
14:17For example, if he had...
14:19No, but if the legislative elections gave the winning left,
14:23it is also because the French today are afraid of the economic crisis
14:29and of losing the social advantages they have thanks to the left.
14:34Yes, absolutely.
14:36So we are in a political crisis.
14:39We are not yet in the regime crisis.
14:41The regime crisis is likely to come.
14:43There is a threat of a regime crisis.
14:45The regime crisis is the impasse.
14:47We are reaching a point where there is no solution.
14:50We are still trying recipes and methods.
14:55But the contradiction in which Emmanuel Macron fell,
15:01and this is what the French, a large part of them, blame him for,
15:05is that he called on the French to vote
15:08and did not take into consideration their vote
15:12by entrusting a personality of this left alliance
15:16that came first to Parliament,
15:19which did not give them the possibility to form a government
15:24and to occupy Matignon.
15:27And here we have the impression that Emmanuel Macron
15:31is driving the French boat against the current.
15:35Towards a sixth republic.
15:37What would that mean, concretely?
15:40What would this sixth republic be?
15:45Unfortunately, for the sixth republic,
15:47there is only a small part of the radical left,
15:51especially the France Insoumise,
15:53which speaks of the sixth republic.
15:55We do not find the sixth republic on the right.
15:57The right is very attached to the fifth republic
15:59and to the work and fruits of General de Gaulle.
16:02The far right also does not speak of the sixth republic.
16:09And the left of the government,
16:11what we call the socialists, the socialist party,
16:14nor the communist parties, nor the green parties,
16:16do not speak of the sixth republic.
16:18So the sixth republic would be
16:20to get out a little bit of this very vertical presidential regime
16:25to reach a kind of balance of powers
16:28that does not depend on the will of a man.
16:32And what we blame Macron for
16:34is that he concentrated all his powers in his hands
16:38and that's why it's blocking.
16:40So speaking of republics,
16:42there are many comments that say
16:44that the situation we are currently experiencing
16:47with these contradictions between parliamentary groups,
16:50with these paralyses
16:52and this sudden change of government,
16:57we have returned to the fourth republic.
16:59The fourth republic where instability was the rule.
17:02To have a prime minister,
17:06there must be groups that coalesce,
17:08that make agreements,
17:10that make parliamentary bisbis to arrive.
17:12Today we have a prime minister
17:14who can fall the next day
17:16if the agreement between the parliamentary groups falls.
17:19So there is this debate there.
17:21Unfortunately for what we can call the sixth republic,
17:23it is not very widespread
17:25and that there is only Jean-Luc Mélenchon
17:27and his friends from La France Insoumise
17:29who promote and propagate it.
17:33And this idea of the sixth republic
17:35has not yet won all minds,
17:37not all political wills,
17:39not all major political states
17:41so that one day we can imagine people going out
17:43to call for the entry of France into the sixth republic.
17:48A comment from Hicham Mouadjadid on this question.
17:52What signal does this send to the international community?
17:55For France, especially since,
17:57we must remember, 2024 is also the year
17:59when the French Republic has wiped out the most checks,
18:02especially in Africa.
18:04Yes, you are right,
18:07the real problem in France
18:10is what we call this French political culture
18:13that has not been able to follow the political movement,
18:16whether at the level of its European geopolitical region
18:19but also at the international level.
18:21I think that the lenses
18:23that the French political leadership wears
18:25must be changed
18:27so that they can be able to understand
18:29the new dynamic of international multipolarization
18:32at the political level.
18:34I think that a certain axis in France
18:37wants to keep a certain traditional political orientation
18:42through which it reads the political dynamics
18:46at the European or international level.
18:48Whereas today, the speed of change
18:51at the international level,
18:53whether at the political or economic level,
18:56exceeds the speed
18:58through which France reads its political issues.
19:03I think that this French political culture
19:06must dare to change its reading
19:10in relation to what is happening around France
19:13but also at the level of international geopolitics.
19:16Being conservative in its way of reading the issues
19:21pushes France to lose,
19:23whether at the level of political value
19:25but also at the level of its geopolitical weight.
19:28We have noticed and observed in Africa,
19:31how the value of France,
19:35whether at the political level
19:37but also at the economic level,
19:39begins to lose weight and ground.
19:41This is due to this lack of daring
19:45to change the lenses
19:47through which we can read
19:49this new dynamic that is taking place,
19:51whether in Africa or in its geopolitical basin.
19:55I think that from the moment
19:57when the forces in France
20:00can dare to change this culture
20:04of how we read this dynamic
20:06that is taking place around France,
20:08I think that from that moment on,
20:10France will understand
20:12that we must change our way of reading
20:15or of absorbing this dynamic
20:18that is taking place,
20:20whether in France as a state
20:22but also within France
20:24with this youth
20:26who wants to live in a France
20:28where there is hope to build a life
20:30that meets their needs.
20:32And this is the case with these elections.
20:35In Senegal, despite the tensions,
20:37the country still maintained
20:39its electoral calendar
20:41and brought to power
20:44a young opponent
20:46to the former president,
20:48Macky Sall,
20:50the person of Bassirou Dioumaifai.
20:53And this is the flagship event,
20:55not only for Senegal,
20:57but for the whole of West Africa.
21:00And this is a decisive turning point
21:02for Senegal.
21:04A word on these elections
21:06and also on the legislative elections
21:08where the party of the president
21:11and of his prime minister, of course,
21:13has blown up the absolute majority
21:16of the seats of the Senegalese Assembly.
21:19Yes, it is true that Senegal
21:21gave a very, very beautiful image
21:23of the democratic and electoral experience
21:25in Africa,
21:27while seen from Paris or seen elsewhere,
21:29these regions were used
21:31to coups d'état
21:33and coups de force
21:35and they were allergic
21:37to democratic exercise
21:39and to universal suffrage.
21:41And this is what Senegal,
21:43with all its youth,
21:45with all its fervor,
21:47with all its will,
21:49has just given an extremely important
21:51presidential election
21:53to a young man who came to power
21:55with his party also
21:57who won the presidential elections
21:59and who sent
22:01a very, very positive
22:03message
22:05to the whole of the African region
22:07that we can live
22:09in these African countries
22:11and have the capacity
22:13to organize democratically
22:15and civilly
22:17and politically, in a peaceful way,
22:19a political transition.
22:21And so,
22:23for me, this Senegalese experience
22:25had reverberations
22:27not only
22:29at the African level,
22:31but it also forced the admiration
22:33of many European capitals.
22:35So, for me personally,
22:37what would also interest me
22:39much more about this experience
22:41is that the new team
22:43in power has maintained
22:45excellent relations with Morocco
22:47and we know how much Senegal
22:49is a very important country
22:51for the entire Moroccan
22:53geo-strategy towards
22:55West Africa.
22:57There are only the structural
22:59and gigantic projects in which
23:01both Mauritania and Senegal
23:03are involved under the leadership of Morocco.
23:05So, for me,
23:07it is an experience that must be encouraged,
23:09that must be followed,
23:11and it gives a very, very beautiful image
23:13of what could be a peaceful transition
23:15in an African country.
23:17Hicham Ouachadi,
23:19a final word on
23:21the implications of
23:23this left-wing
23:25Pan-Africanism
23:27defended by
23:29Sonko
23:31or Dioumaïfai
23:33for a new vision
23:35of tomorrow's Africa.
23:37I think that,
23:39as you mentioned,
23:41this example of democratic exercise
23:43that our brothers in Senegal
23:45have demonstrated,
23:47for all the countries of the Mitrof,
23:49but also for the African continent,
23:51shows that Africans
23:53can create their own model
23:55that responds to their
23:57democratic culture,
23:59but above all respects
24:01their own trajectory
24:03in this exercise.
24:05Because, as you know,
24:07each region or each political culture
24:09has its own characteristics
24:11in terms of its political trajectory
24:13and the Senegalese have demonstrated this well.
24:15And I think that through
24:17this respect they have
24:19for their trajectory,
24:21they have also imposed a certain respect
24:23around them, but also at the international level.
24:25And we have observed it
24:27at the level of
24:29these movements,
24:31of the new Senegalese president
24:33who has imposed a certain respect,
24:35but also who has established
24:37a certain Senegalese political culture
24:39at the reception
24:41of the president at the international level.
24:43Also, what must be mentioned is that
24:45despite this change at the institutional level
24:47and despite the fact that
24:49the Senegalese could reach
24:51their democratic trajectory,
24:53there is always this link
24:55that is much stronger than
24:57this exercise, this trajectory,
24:59which connects the two countries,
25:01namely Rabat and Dakar,
25:03and which is much more connected
25:05because there are other links
25:07that go beyond this democratic exercise
25:09Why? Because there are links
25:11that carry much more on all these spiritual,
25:13religious dimensions, but also
25:15civil and civil support
25:17and also all these
25:19citizen relations between the two peoples
25:21that go far beyond
25:23this only link
25:25that can be reduced
25:27to this democratic exercise.
25:29But this, in fact,
25:31does not spare, does not dispel
25:33this success of the Senegalese model
25:35which inspires
25:37certainly a number of countries
25:39in the African continent.
25:41Thank you very much.
25:43Thank you Hicham, thank you for being with us.
25:45It is with pleasure.
25:47Thank you very much for the reception.
25:49And best wishes for this new year.
25:51This is the last of the season,
25:53so this is the last edition of 2024
25:55and I also reiterate my thanks
25:57to Simstafatosa. Thank you too.
25:59And my best wishes to you as well and to your family.
26:01To you too, thank you.
26:03That was the last episode of 2024.
26:05Let's meet again
26:07in 2025
26:09with our wishes
26:11on behalf of the entire Media TV team.
26:13Best wishes, health,
26:15happiness for this new year
26:17that is about to begin.
26:19And thank you for your loyalty.
26:21Have a good evening.