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MEDI1TV Afrique : Présidentielle américaine 2024 - Guerre en Ukraine : Décryptage - 09/03/2024

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01:46 of security and defence.
01:48 Good evening.
01:50 Thank you for being with us.
01:52 You are the CEO of the Political Sciences Institute
01:54 of the University of Mondiapolis.
01:56 Good evening.
01:58 Good evening.
02:00 You are an international relations professor
02:02 at the University of Mohamed San Joraba.
02:04 Thank you.
02:06 We will start with the US elections.
02:08 In November, there will be elections
02:10 with huge stakes
02:12 but also with a new fragmentation
02:14 of the world, facing the problems
02:16 that are happening in almost all the parts of the world.
02:18 The world will have its eyes on the US
02:20 to find out who will be the 47th
02:22 president of the US.
02:24 I start with you, Zakaria Abou-Tahab.
02:26 Donald Trump and Joe Biden,
02:28 can we really consider that they are the champions
02:30 in their respective parties,
02:32 knowing that one and the other
02:34 are quite contested by a part
02:36 of their base.
02:38 Both the Republicans are divided
02:40 on Trump's side
02:42 and the question of Israel
02:44 which creates some problems for Joe Biden.
02:46 Are they truly representative of their party?
02:48 At least if we believe
02:50 the results of the big Tuesday,
02:52 it was before yesterday,
02:54 which allowed Donald Trump
02:56 to win 11 states out of 12
02:58 compared to his rival,
03:00 who was thus
03:02 ruled out.
03:04 And so, Mr. Joe Biden
03:06 also won the primaries
03:08 against competitors
03:10 but who were not
03:12 truly visible.
03:14 What seems today,
03:16 and by the way, it's the comment
03:18 of most of the mass media
03:20 in the world,
03:22 is that it's an electrified political field
03:24 and it's clear that
03:26 we are embarking on a duel
03:28 once again from the next
03:30 scrutin. Normally, the elections
03:32 are on November 5, 2024,
03:34 but it seems more and more that today
03:36 the American political field is structured
03:38 by two major trends,
03:40 the conservative trend and the
03:42 democratic trend. And so, it's
03:44 Mr. Donald Trump versus
03:46 Joe Biden, unless there is
03:48 something exceptional. But we have to say,
03:50 we will come back to the fact that
03:52 the Supreme Court of the United States
03:54 once again "whitened"
03:56 Mr. Donald Trump. He will have other
03:58 concerns, but they have nothing to do
04:00 with his ability to present himself
04:02 at the presidential elections. And so,
04:04 what seems today is almost a kind of
04:06 consensus that we will witness a duel
04:08 truly between Donald Trump
04:10 and Mr. Joe Biden.
04:12 And you think, Colonel Serreault,
04:14 that it will happen like that? And if
04:16 it happens like that, how, in your opinion,
04:18 could it be, how could it
04:20 happen? Because, again,
04:22 they may be the champions
04:24 or the representatives of their party,
04:26 but they do not bring the support of all the members of their party,
04:28 which will not be a phenomenon. Joe Biden,
04:30 just a clarification, Joe Biden
04:32 had, at the beginning of the week,
04:34 invited the Republican voters
04:36 of Nicaragua
04:38 to join the Democratic camp.
04:40 How do you see things at this level?
04:42 You spoke just now of "remake".
04:44 Yes, "remake"
04:46 in terms of
04:48 what will be
04:50 the candidates
04:54 at the elections.
04:56 But the difference with
04:58 the presidential election is that we have
05:00 a geopolitical landscape
05:02 that is upset,
05:04 not like in 2020.
05:06 We have,
05:08 of course, the Russian-Ukrainian war,
05:10 we have just had
05:12 the Israeli-Palestinian problem,
05:14 the Karabakh issue,
05:16 the problems
05:18 in the Indo-Pacific.
05:20 So I think the situation is not the same.
05:22 And it may be these elements
05:24 that will be,
05:26 that will have a part
05:28 in determining who will
05:30 win.
05:32 We are now
05:34 in the primaries,
05:36 they are not finished.
05:38 The candidate Trump
05:42 has today
05:44 1,031 delegates.
05:46 He will need
05:48 1,215, and
05:50 visibly by the end of March
05:52 he will be able to fill them.
05:54 So we are on our way to this duo.
05:58 In reality,
06:00 the Americans don't want it.
06:02 Except that they have to
06:04 accommodate the polls.
06:06 The polls say
06:08 that we don't want it,
06:10 but it is still a problem.
06:12 The emancipation
06:14 of political elites in the United States
06:16 is a problem.
06:18 The polls today
06:20 give 43% for Biden,
06:22 48% for Trump,
06:24 but it is
06:26 a photo
06:28 that will be attempted
06:30 by June,
06:32 to confirm
06:34 the decision.
06:36 And by November 5,
06:38 there will certainly be a lot
06:40 to discuss.
06:42 There will be a lot of elements.
06:44 Biden's health,
06:46 as my friend Zakaria said,
06:48 Trump's
06:50 burps,
06:54 the judicial leaflet,
06:56 even if
06:58 his eligibility has been canceled,
07:00 but by then, a lot of things
07:02 can happen.
07:04 A lot of things can happen.
07:06 I will push you a little further.
07:08 We are at the beginning of March.
07:10 Do you think that on November 5,
07:12 it will be this duo that will present?
07:14 Don't you think that there
07:16 could be something else?
07:18 Donald Trump has several criminal
07:20 or tax cases
07:22 on his back.
07:24 Joe Biden's health
07:26 is declining.
07:28 Do you think
07:30 that this configuration will last
07:32 until November 5?
07:34 Today,
07:36 that's what we'll have
07:38 by November 5.
07:40 As my colleague Zakaria said,
07:42 after this Tuesday,
07:44 this big Tuesday,
07:46 it has become clear.
07:48 Even Nikki Haley
07:50 has been vaccinated.
07:52 Trump is alone,
07:54 representing the Republicans.
07:56 Biden is the only one
07:58 who represents, after the primaries,
08:00 the Democrats who represent
08:02 the Democrats.
08:04 Now we think of the colistier.
08:06 Who will be the colistier?
08:08 In case there are some
08:10 fluctuations or changes,
08:12 maybe health,
08:14 or other judicial problems,
08:16 although his eligibility
08:18 has been revoked by the Supreme Court.
08:20 He has been cut off.
08:22 That's clear.
08:24 So, we're talking about
08:26 who will be the colistier
08:28 of one or the other.
08:30 But this duo will
08:32 make this path towards November 5
08:34 to face, once again,
08:36 as it was done
08:38 four years ago.
08:40 Now, the American political field
08:42 is calling us,
08:44 as scientists, to analyze these elections.
08:46 These elections,
08:48 our colonel
08:50 talked about geopolitics,
08:52 which is also part of the electoral issue.
08:54 But there is also an internal political field
08:56 where there is a cleavage
08:58 that is expressed in a very clear way
09:00 today, very clear.
09:02 It is a progressive
09:04 and conservative cleavage.
09:06 And the sociological variables,
09:08 that is,
09:10 of these elections,
09:12 are quite clear today.
09:14 When we see for the conservative field
09:16 the variable, for example,
09:18 religion.
09:20 When we see serious articles,
09:22 the Republicans,
09:24 more attached to Christianity,
09:26 will vote for the Republicans.
09:28 The Democrats are more in the laicization.
09:30 There is another variable
09:32 in relation to
09:34 the sexual education
09:36 of children.
09:38 This is a variable
09:40 of children at school level.
09:42 The Republicans are against,
09:44 the Democrats are for.
09:46 We have the variable
09:48 of the white vote.
09:50 There are figures.
09:52 The Republicans...
09:54 - The white vote, you mean
09:56 the zero vote or the large vote?
09:58 - No, the racial vote.
10:00 We are talking about the white electorate.
10:02 When we talk about figures,
10:04 one of the latest studies that was done,
10:06 for example, for the Democrats,
10:08 it is only 40%.
10:10 For the Republicans,
10:12 it is 58%.
10:14 For the blacks, it is 86%.
10:16 For the Democrats, it is 13%.
10:18 For the Spanish and Latinos, it is 60%.
10:20 It is a recent study,
10:22 a scientific study
10:24 in an indexed magazine.
10:26 These are the latest figures
10:28 that have just been published.
10:30 There is also the age variable
10:32 and the electoral vote.
10:34 We will see, for example,
10:36 the white electorate's vote.
10:38 The older they get,
10:40 the more they will vote for the Republicans.
10:42 We are talking about what we called
10:44 - because we are also presenting
10:46 the determinism -
10:48 in the Lazerfeld School.
10:50 Is there indeterminism?
10:52 When he says,
10:54 "We think socially, politically,
10:56 as we think socially,
10:58 and the vote is an act of faith."
11:00 We put these two schools,
11:02 or rather these two clans,
11:04 right and left,
11:06 conservative and progressive,
11:08 in this analysis
11:10 to understand
11:12 how the Americans vote.
11:14 There is also the educational variable.
11:16 For men and women,
11:18 they will vote more for the Democrats.
11:20 There are also figures.
11:22 With this determinism,
11:24 we think that the electoral stake
11:26 in the United States
11:28 is very important.
11:30 Of course, we will also talk
11:32 about the economic stake.
11:34 America is first.
11:36 All of this is happening,
11:38 while Biden also played
11:40 on this by making
11:42 public denials,
11:44 by helping investors
11:46 to try to get into this.
11:48 Well, friends,
11:50 you are all going a little too far.
11:52 There are still lawsuits
11:54 that will be held against
11:56 Donald Trump for rebellion.
11:58 You all referred to the 14th amendment,
12:00 the third line, to be precise.
12:02 It is a law in a state
12:04 that pronounces this rebellion.
12:06 I say that it is possible.
12:08 It was pronounced in Colorado
12:10 and the Supreme Court
12:12 did not pronounce the rebellion,
12:14 but it simply prevented
12:16 Trump from presenting himself.
12:18 Clearly, with evidence
12:20 and facts,
12:22 pronouncing a rebellion is very serious,
12:24 it is very important.
12:26 If it happens, we will see.
12:28 We will follow the news.
12:30 Joe Biden, a Democrat,
12:32 presents Donald Trump's election
12:34 as a danger to democracy
12:36 and in fact, when a president,
12:38 in his own way, was asked
12:40 "Are you a dictator?"
12:42 he answered, I see you smiling,
12:44 "Except the first day."
12:46 The first day,
12:48 which means that he is
12:50 driven by a desire for revenge,
12:52 he wants to dismantle what he and his
12:54 supporters call the deep state,
12:56 that is, the great administration.
12:58 He wants to send people to trial,
13:00 he wants the Democrats to make
13:02 the choice between Biden and Trump
13:04 as the choice between democracy
13:06 and political chaos.
13:08 I don't know if it works or not
13:10 in the United States today,
13:12 since Biden himself is criticized
13:14 for the management of a number
13:16 of files, we may come back to it,
13:18 whether it is the question
13:20 of Gaza and then
13:22 the position of Mr. Biden
13:24 from the first day or the day
13:26 after the offensive on the side of Netanyahu,
13:28 I'm not talking about the Israeli state,
13:30 and so that has taken a lot of weight
13:32 off him and has added
13:34 in terms of unpopularity
13:36 with the American electorate,
13:38 as Ali and Hassan said,
13:40 who is not a dupe,
13:42 he himself is conditioned and determined
13:44 by considerations,
13:46 certainly of electoral sociology,
13:48 but also of psychology.
13:50 And then we must not forget that
13:52 the generational change, those who will be
13:54 soon, at most I think
13:56 on November 5, 2024,
13:58 will participate in the vote, etc.
14:00 Without forgetting, of course,
14:02 its inefficiency in relation to the question
14:04 of the war between Russia
14:06 and Ukraine. So that said,
14:08 we must make the difference
14:10 between reality, perhaps, and the psychological war,
14:12 the war of information.
14:14 But what seems today, because I've
14:16 gone around a bit, if you like, I've been
14:18 zapping about channels, whether
14:20 American, French or other,
14:22 that today Trump is not the one
14:24 who was in the presidential race
14:26 in 2017.
14:28 He has learned his lesson, so he knows
14:30 how to do things, and so
14:32 he knows how to avoid
14:34 a certain number of traps. I say this
14:36 because apparently he is
14:38 better surrounded today by a team
14:40 of experts, especially lawyers,
14:42 you know, lawyers in the United States
14:44 occupy an extremely important place, it is a think tank
14:46 called Heritage Foundation.
14:48 And today, I think,
14:50 he will be very careful
14:52 in his approach. Of course,
14:54 there are fears, I know, in relation to the
14:56 detangling of a number of multilateral agreements,
14:58 the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement,
15:00 once again, the position in relation
15:02 to nuclear weapons vis-à-vis Iran, etc.
15:04 But don't you think that, beyond
15:06 the questions of internal management
15:08 of the political conflict between Mr. Biden
15:10 and Mr. Trump,
15:12 but also the Democrats and Republicans,
15:14 wouldn't Trump be
15:16 perhaps the man of the situation today?
15:18 In relation to a void, which,
15:20 unfortunately, has been left,
15:22 it must be stressed, by an America
15:24 which may need
15:26 a man a little stronger,
15:28 more able to
15:30 do what he says.
15:32 This is not a criticism of Mr. Biden.
15:34 No, we are our objective, etc.
15:36 What we see today,
15:38 it is true that Mr. Trump
15:40 is gaining ground, and that probably,
15:42 probably, in relation to the traps
15:44 that are being set on him,
15:46 he will do better
15:48 to avoid the traps, or the mistakes,
15:50 or the mistakes of the past,
15:52 and he will be, as good as bad,
15:54 I think, better prepared
15:56 for the duel, the famous duel.
15:58 It is true that Mr. Biden has in his assets
16:00 2%, if not 3% of economic growth,
16:02 unemployment, but when we talk to Americans,
16:04 they say, "Buff!"
16:06 You know,
16:08 they minimize more or less
16:10 Mr. Biden's economic and social balance.
16:12 So, today,
16:14 it is certainly difficult to conjecture,
16:16 but we can draw up some probable scenarios
16:18 of a certain victory,
16:20 perhaps a little too tight,
16:22 of Trump on Mr. Biden.
16:24 There are others,
16:26 in other words, Hassan Saoud.
16:28 Zakaria Boudaib tells us that Trump
16:30 has learned from his first mandate,
16:32 and therefore he knows how to react.
16:34 Do you think, first, that he really learned?
16:36 That is, in what he says, it is simply
16:38 to draw a certain number of votes,
16:40 circles of votes that are a bit
16:42 more than the total number.
16:44 Do you think it will be like that?
16:46 And how do you see this famous
16:48 debate that will take place if we continue
16:50 like this, with Donald Trump's tornado
16:52 against Joe Biden, which,
16:54 we can say, is still not
16:56 in the best of its form?
16:58 You know, the foundation
17:00 that Zakaria mentioned
17:02 produced a report on a few
17:04 elements that have been leaked.
17:06 In particular,
17:08 he has surrounded himself with experts.
17:10 He said,
17:12 "In the first election,
17:14 I was surrounded by inexperienced people."
17:16 Now, he has surrounded himself
17:18 with a few hundred
17:20 experts
17:22 by this conservative
17:24 foundation of the rest.
17:26 And among the cardinal elements
17:28 that have been leaked,
17:30 it is the radical change
17:32 at the White House.
17:34 4,000 staff will be swept away.
17:36 But he added
17:38 that
17:40 the dictator,
17:42 on the first day,
17:44 will sweep away more than 50,000
17:46 staff from the American
17:48 public services.
17:50 What he calls the "deep state".
17:52 There you go.
17:54 He also said, "I will try
17:56 to change the Constitution so that
17:58 the executive is strengthened
18:00 at the expense of
18:02 democratic institutions such as
18:04 the House of Representatives and the Senate."
18:06 Last point.
18:08 The President
18:10 must
18:12 control
18:14 what we call
18:16 the federal agencies.
18:18 The CIA,
18:20 the FBI, etc.
18:22 The famous information community
18:24 with its 17 agencies.
18:26 Yes, with the NSA and all that.
18:28 I think that
18:30 if in his campaign
18:32 or in the debate
18:34 he says that the Americans
18:36 are jealous of their
18:38 democracy and their balance,
18:40 even if they are not balanced.
18:42 He is wrong
18:44 because, in my opinion,
18:46 the President of the United States
18:48 is not as strong as he thinks inside.
18:50 There are crazy guards.
18:52 Experts
18:54 talk about a French president
18:56 with much more
18:58 contributions than
19:00 the French.
19:02 This will be a problem
19:04 on the democratic side.
19:06 It is true, as colleagues say,
19:08 the Gaza war
19:10 went through there.
19:12 You have the black community, the Latinos.
19:14 You have the left wing
19:16 of democracy, Sanders.
19:18 He called for a vote
19:20 against him
19:22 at the time of the
19:24 designation of the Senate
19:26 or the House of Representatives.
19:28 And you have the Arab and Muslim
19:30 parties.
19:32 In a state
19:34 that I forgot the name of,
19:36 100,000 votes, white.
19:38 And we know
19:40 where it comes from.
19:42 So there are these problems.
19:44 But, at the end of the day,
19:46 the Americans
19:48 ask themselves the following question.
19:50 Will you entrust
19:52 our country
19:54 to this candidate or that candidate?
19:56 So there is a problem of
19:58 responsibility and above all
20:00 of the State
20:02 that will be put at the end.
20:04 And so the choice belongs to them.
20:06 Even if there is an
20:08 electoral paradox,
20:10 you can win the popular vote
20:12 and lose
20:14 the big voters.
20:16 As has happened often in recent years.
20:18 It happened with Mrs. Clinton.
20:20 With Bush, Gore,
20:22 with everyone. The State you were talking about
20:24 was Michigan, where there are a lot of Arab Muslims.
20:26 And the coming months
20:28 will certainly bring
20:30 much more clarification.
20:32 Wow.
20:34 Mr. Al-Halashy, do you agree
20:36 with that? That the counter-powers,
20:38 that the mad guards
20:40 will really serve, knowing that
20:42 one of the great counter-powers, one of the great
20:44 mad guards is called the Supreme Court.
20:46 The Supreme Court is six conservatives
20:48 against three Democrats.
20:50 And among the six conservatives,
20:52 there are two or three, I think,
20:54 who are supported by Donald Trump himself.
20:56 Do you think these mad guards will really
20:58 keep them?
21:00 Or will Trump be able to
21:02 surpass them? Because when he says he will change
21:04 the Constitution, it means that he knows
21:06 that he has enough. We call it, you are more
21:08 English-speaking than me, "check and balances".
21:10 So do you think it will
21:12 continue to work? Do you think that Trump
21:14 will have the constitutional,
21:16 institutional means to change the Constitution?
21:18 Maybe not to change the
21:20 Constitution, it is necessary to clarify
21:22 that the United States of America
21:24 is a country where there is a
21:26 very clear separation
21:28 of power.
21:30 And there, when
21:32 Bill wrote "Democracy
21:34 in America",
21:36 it is a book that is
21:38 a reference today, and which even
21:40 demonstrated, at the time of the elections
21:42 where there were problems, the results,
21:44 that in the United States,
21:46 the judicial power...
21:48 In the 19th century, we agree.
21:50 In 1830.
21:52 But what is extraordinary
21:54 is that he worked on the American elections,
21:56 on the separation of power,
21:58 and the value of the judicial power
22:00 that allows
22:02 to guarantee
22:04 the sincerity of the elections.
22:06 Whatever it is,
22:08 even if it was written a century ago,
22:10 it shows us
22:12 how this separation is translated,
22:14 and we have seen it, moreover,
22:16 with the Supreme Court,
22:18 with everything that happened
22:20 in the United States.
22:22 Now, because... Why am I saying this?
22:24 It helps us to answer
22:26 your question. Does it have
22:28 counter-powers? There are
22:30 counter-powers, but in my opinion,
22:32 the President also has powers
22:34 that he holds. That is to say,
22:36 the separation of powers
22:38 allows each institution
22:40 in the United States
22:42 to express the skills
22:44 that it attributes.
22:46 And this is very important.
22:48 The fact that
22:50 Mr. Trump
22:52 wants to change the Constitution,
22:54 if he has the skills
22:56 and the attributions, and
22:58 this does not go against
23:00 the other institutions,
23:02 which are the institutions,
23:04 that is, the legislative ones,
23:06 representing the super executive,
23:08 it will be possible,
23:10 but there is always a balance.
23:12 The United States has
23:14 an extraordinary balance of power
23:16 with diversity.
23:18 It is a federal state, not
23:20 a unitary state, and that is why
23:22 justice plays a very important role,
23:24 whether it is conservative,
23:26 and I come back to this, because he named,
23:28 you mentioned that he named
23:30 conservative judges in the Supreme Court,
23:32 but there is a separation
23:34 of powers
23:36 that is very important,
23:38 and there is a balance in power.
23:40 In my opinion,
23:42 always for these elections,
23:44 which are still exciting,
23:46 because with Trump, Biden,
23:48 will they reach the age,
23:50 whatever the candidate
23:52 or the two candidates
23:54 or the pollsters who will be with them,
23:56 it is this division that will determine
23:58 the election.
24:00 There are always 40% who vote like that,
24:02 and 40, and you have 20% of the undecided
24:04 who will play
24:06 on this rational voter
24:08 with all these variables
24:10 that I mentioned earlier.
24:12 But there is also the geopolitical variable
24:14 which is very important.
24:16 We can see Trump's mandate.
24:18 Trump did not have a war during his mandate.
24:20 He sold a lot of...
24:22 We will come back to the geopolitical question,
24:24 if you allow me,
24:26 but once again, I would like to come back
24:28 with you on this question.
24:30 It is good to have counterpowers,
24:32 but we have seen that for the Supreme Court,
24:34 it was this week,
24:36 it gave
24:38 four cases to Trump.
24:40 I understood.
24:42 Because it considered
24:44 that the 14th amendment
24:46 was not touched,
24:48 that is to say...
24:50 It was not characterized.
24:52 It was not characterized in a judicial way,
24:54 that is to say that the one who
24:56 swore did not bring
24:58 harm to the institutions.
25:00 What happened in the Capitol,
25:02 they considered it as
25:04 not bringing harm
25:06 to the institutions
25:08 and to the Constitution.
25:10 Unlike...
25:12 I am coming back to the 19th century,
25:14 what happened, since the 14th amendment
25:16 came after the war of secession.
25:18 Just after, in 1868.
25:20 And because they considered
25:22 that the secessionists had brought harm,
25:24 that is to say,
25:26 previously...
25:28 It is true that there was a murderous war
25:30 that lasted four years.
25:32 We said that last time.
25:34 It guaranteed justice.
25:36 They were sworn in before.
25:38 Of course.
25:40 They swore in this case
25:42 before being sworn in.
25:44 So I think that what happened
25:46 was that they considered
25:48 that the 14th amendment was not applied.
25:50 OK, so we continue.
25:52 I stay with you, Colonel Saoud.
25:54 We will now move on to...
25:56 When I call you Colonel,
25:58 I ask a military question.
26:00 And that is military.
26:02 Let's imagine that it is Donald Trump.
26:04 We saw Joe Biden's reaction
26:06 to Ukraine.
26:08 Almost unconditional aid,
26:10 even when the Congress slows down,
26:12 and it is still pushing.
26:14 We are at the turn of this Ukrainian war.
26:16 We will talk about it in the second part.
26:18 But if it is Trump who is passing,
26:20 how do you see things?
26:22 We are back to the balance of aid.
26:24 You see, today,
26:26 Biden wants to give 60 billion to Ukraine.
26:28 The Congress,
26:30 the Congress is blocking.
26:32 Will the Congress be able to block Biden
26:34 for a decision that does not suit them?
26:36 That is precisely what he intends to break.
26:38 And I think he will not succeed.
26:40 Do I know Trump or Biden?
26:42 No, no, Trump.
26:44 Trump.
26:46 But Trump, we know the relations
26:48 he had with Vladimir Putin.
26:50 You know, to answer you,
26:52 we are in the campaign.
26:54 We talk about Trump
26:56 as someone who does what he says.
26:58 But I think the exception
27:00 Ukraine-Russia
27:02 is not easy for him to manage
27:04 in the way he would like.
27:06 That is to say,
27:08 cutting aid to Ukraine,
27:10 I think he could not.
27:12 I say well, I think he could not.
27:14 Given the geopolitical issues,
27:16 the West against Russia,
27:18 NATO,
27:20 Europe and the United States.
27:22 I think it is a slogan
27:24 of the United States.
27:26 I think it is a slogan
27:28 of the campaign.
27:30 Everything he said about NATO
27:32 was, in my opinion,
27:34 out of date.
27:36 Because he managed to revive
27:38 NATO.
27:40 So,
27:42 I do not know how it will turn out.
27:44 The content or the amount
27:46 of aid that could be.
27:48 I do not know.
27:50 But I think he will not be able
27:52 at some point.
27:54 To modify the force ratio.
27:56 To act on that.
27:58 By the way, Biden will relaunch
28:00 the deal with the Congress
28:02 in a few days
28:04 to try.
28:06 And there will certainly be,
28:08 with the discussions he had
28:10 with the opposition,
28:12 there will certainly be
28:14 some arrangements.
28:16 Because Ukraine
28:18 is in a critical situation.
28:20 The situation on the ground
28:22 is very difficult.
28:24 The Russian counteroffensive
28:26 wins on the ground.
28:28 Even if it is not decisive.
28:30 These are battles.
28:32 And regarding this military situation,
28:34 I think that
28:36 Advivka was taken.
28:38 It was a trophy for
28:40 Vladimir Putin.
28:42 Putin's electoral campaign.
28:44 By the way, you saw how
28:46 we managed the affair
28:48 in terms of communication.
28:50 And the Russians,
28:52 the Ukrainians are on the defensive.
28:54 Unbalanced force ratio.
28:56 Unbalanced fire ratio.
28:58 They need
29:00 ammunition,
29:02 missiles,
29:04 cartridges,
29:06 they need equipment.
29:08 But they never asked
29:10 for men.
29:12 And so,
29:14 it is a situation that is quite complicated.
29:16 And I think that
29:18 the European Council,
29:20 if it ever happens,
29:22 could rebalance
29:24 the situation.
29:26 Even if you want to develop
29:28 the situation on the ground,
29:30 on the sea,
29:32 to build.
29:34 The situation at sea,
29:36 Russia is losing
29:38 a lot of its warships.
29:40 And yesterday,
29:42 or the day before yesterday,
29:44 there were French patrols,
29:46 the "Démirage 2000",
29:48 in normal patrols,
29:50 in the international waters.
29:52 In the international airspace.
29:54 And yes, there was a Russian alert.
29:56 There were summits.
29:58 And then it was...
30:00 There is a risk of escalation.
30:02 If there is ever a beauty,
30:06 it may degenerate.
30:08 We will talk about this in the second part.
30:10 In your answers, dear friends,
30:12 you may have forgotten something.
30:14 On November 5th,
30:16 the Americans will not vote for the president alone.
30:18 They will also elect a congress.
30:20 We know that traditionally,
30:22 most often,
30:24 when a president is elected,
30:26 he is given a majority.
30:28 And it is in midterm elections
30:30 that it changes.
30:32 So if Trump is president,
30:34 if Biden is president,
30:36 each one will normally have
30:38 his majority.
30:40 And so the congress may see things
30:42 differently.
30:44 I will pass to you, Zakaria Boutahab,
30:46 the Middle East.
30:48 What is currently happening
30:50 in Rza.
30:52 We know that Trump is
30:54 a friend of Israel,
30:56 but Trump is a friend of himself.
30:58 This is what is said by the great Trump specialists,
31:00 who are friends of themselves,
31:02 and must see according to their interests.
31:04 For Joe Biden, you know that
31:06 Jewish Judaism is
31:08 extremely active.
31:10 So there are more and more
31:12 young Jews,
31:14 Democrats,
31:16 who are against Biden's policy.
31:18 But if Biden is re-elected,
31:20 he will have his second mandate.
31:22 So you know that in the second mandate,
31:24 we don't react like in the first.
31:26 How do you see the future of politics
31:28 in light of these elements,
31:30 the American future of politics
31:32 with regard to Israel?
31:34 What a question!
31:36 I have put the time to develop it.
31:38 First of all, we must say that
31:40 even Mr. Biden's policy
31:42 in light of the Middle East in general
31:44 has not changed things.
31:46 We must say that his position
31:48 from day one, we said,
31:50 has not favoured it.
31:52 When we know today,
31:54 in American universities,
31:56 the mass of protesters,
31:58 precisely when Biden
32:00 pronounces or intervenes,
32:02 whether it is Mr. Blinken, etc.,
32:04 always the same speech,
32:06 "Fire now!"
32:08 We must decree to cease fire now.
32:10 So it is not in his interest.
32:12 It is clear.
32:14 And he has not revived
32:16 Abraham's agreements,
32:18 which at one point we said
32:20 could be the prelude
32:22 or the gateway
32:24 to restart
32:26 the talks.
32:28 I am not talking about peace.
32:30 It is very complicated today on the ground
32:32 the situation, how it is.
32:34 Mr. Trump also said at one point,
32:36 I think after his departure,
32:38 that Mr. Netanyahu had betrayed him.
32:40 And so, I think the personal relationship
32:42 is a little bit muddy.
32:44 It is not as it was before.
32:46 It is a little bit damaged.
32:48 He is first of all a friend to himself.
32:50 He is a friend to himself, absolutely.
32:52 So now, it is difficult because
32:54 we must say, in case Trump returns to business,
32:56 what would be his policy
32:58 in relation to this Near East,
33:00 as De Gaulle said, very complicated,
33:02 with a scene that is also
33:04 muddy.
33:06 The resumption of diplomatic relations
33:08 between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
33:10 Today, the political infantry,
33:12 otherwise the fall
33:14 to the abyss of Mr. Netanyahu.
33:16 The question, I do not know today
33:18 if this ceasefire
33:20 would intervene at least the day before Ramadan.
33:22 Will it last
33:24 six weeks or not?
33:26 But what we can say, roughly,
33:28 is that the Sucha in Israel is a heavy trend
33:30 in the international American policy of the country.
33:32 Whether it is the conservatives,
33:34 or whatever, do not forget that Mr. Donald Trump
33:36 had taken the decision
33:38 that was enacted by the American Congress
33:40 in 1995 to move
33:42 the American embassy in the United States
33:44 of Tel Aviv to Jerusalem
33:46 for the Americans.
33:48 You said what date? In 2017?
33:50 1995, it was the decision.
33:52 Ah, it was the decision that had been
33:54 thrown by all the presidents.
33:56 But all the presidents did not want precisely
33:58 to open the embassy in Jerusalem.
34:00 They had a decision to open the embassy in Jerusalem.
34:02 They did not do it for almost 20 years
34:04 before Trump decided to do it.
34:06 I also remind you that in 1991,
34:08 after the First Gulf War,
34:10 there was the conference of Madrid
34:12 with Jacques Chamille at the time.
34:14 It had been imposed
34:16 by George Bush, father, at the time.
34:18 So when it goes really too far,
34:20 the Americans, well now ...
34:22 But the situation has changed
34:24 on the geopolitical level anyway.
34:26 The Soviet Union was dislocating.
34:28 It was the era of geoeconomy
34:30 with the World Trade Organization.
34:32 And Casablanca had hosted
34:34 the first summit of the
34:36 Middle East Partnership Initiative.
34:38 Besides, it was in Casablanca
34:40 in October 1944.
34:42 The idea was, after the Oslo Accords,
34:44 to reach ...
34:46 It was the Jericho Accords,
34:48 that is, the land in counterpart of peace.
34:50 But with the assassination
34:52 of Ishaq Rabin
34:54 and the appearance of a man
34:56 called Netanyahu, everything was decimated.
34:58 Everything was practically abolished.
35:00 And especially after
35:02 the previous esplanade of the mosques
35:04 by Ariel Sharon
35:06 and the launch of the Second Intifada.
35:08 It's very complicated,
35:10 this situation,
35:12 and maybe
35:14 we will win by having
35:16 an American president,
35:18 whether Republican or Democrat,
35:20 to revive hope, to have a calm.
35:22 But it's not a definitive solution
35:24 because we must not forget that you have Israel,
35:26 who is there, who is looking for security,
35:28 for survival, too, compared to ...
35:30 Yes, of course, an environment that is dangerous,
35:32 seen from the Israeli side.
35:34 So what it does,
35:36 in my opinion, it will not
35:38 really make things move.
35:40 Probably, maybe, come back,
35:42 revive the Abraham Accords,
35:44 although even today we see
35:46 that the situation is no longer what it was
35:48 in September 2020, with the start,
35:50 with the Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
35:52 The Saudi Arabia, which was also looking
35:54 to rally,
35:56 let's say, the coalition, but today ...
35:58 I am unable
36:00 to give you complete answers.
36:02 I was not expecting anything else, Zakaria,
36:04 because it's very complicated.
36:06 The election will take place in eight months,
36:08 a lot will happen. Everyone hopes, of course,
36:10 that the elections will be stopped,
36:12 but in eight months a lot will happen.
36:14 Ariel Harishon continues to expand
36:16 the world. We have seen Joe Biden's policy
36:18 of a great openness,
36:20 a great proximity,
36:22 a certain form of humility
36:24 in Africa,
36:26 or with the Gulf Cooperation Council,
36:28 a form of aggressive resignation
36:30 with the Chinese,
36:32 with the European
36:34 NATO, a form of indifference.
36:36 That's Joe Biden.
36:38 For Trump, he has always said things clearly.
36:40 With the Chinese, he was firm.
36:42 Fiscally, he paid
36:44 and the Chinese paid.
36:46 It's special because they went
36:48 to the place where Trump's election
36:50 is taking place.
36:52 With the Africans, well, things happened.
36:54 With the Gulf Cooperation Council.
36:56 Also, how do you see Trump's policy
36:58 in this world that has changed a lot in four years?
37:00 How do you see Trump's policy
37:02 once he has possibly returned to business?
37:04 Well, as we said,
37:06 Trump is surrounded
37:08 by a new team
37:10 who have experience.
37:12 Certainly, they are conservatives.
37:14 He belongs to a conservative party too.
37:16 But the vision will be different.
37:18 Different, but always
37:20 because of American foreign policy,
37:22 there are,
37:24 let's say, some things
37:26 that don't change.
37:28 Let's say that they are unchangeable,
37:30 certain positions.
37:32 In relation to the Middle East,
37:34 whatever the Republican or Democrat president is,
37:36 he will look for a solution,
37:38 a form of solution, perhaps not peace,
37:40 because with what is happening today,
37:42 we said, in eight months,
37:44 let's hope that things will calm down
37:46 for a population that is suffering today.
37:48 In relation to China,
37:52 we saw,
37:54 you mentioned China,
37:56 there was taxation and taxes
37:58 in relation to Chinese products,
38:00 but the Chinese have returned in the same way.
38:02 So it was with Trump.
38:04 So the Chinese
38:06 remain
38:08 the rivals,
38:10 but there is an interdependence
38:12 between the Chinese and the Americans,
38:14 697 billion dollars
38:16 of exchange per year,
38:18 with a very favorable balance
38:20 to the Chinese.
38:22 A form of dependence and interdependence.
38:24 And interdependence, of course.
38:26 Now, the position
38:28 in relation to the Gulf countries,
38:30 it also depends on what is happening in the Middle East.
38:32 Because the Gulf countries,
38:34 we just saw a few days ago,
38:36 they condemned what is happening
38:38 in Palestine and Gaza.
38:40 So, today,
38:42 Trump will not go and sell,
38:44 as he did the last time,
38:46 we remember this great check,
38:48 with the Saudis,
38:50 sell weapons.
38:52 Now, we have to try to find solutions.
38:54 Because the Gulf countries,
38:56 they have a position,
38:58 they have signed,
39:00 in many Gulf countries,
39:02 the Abraham Accords,
39:04 and we were only talking about Saudi Arabia,
39:06 to the point of entering
39:08 this Abraham Accords.
39:10 Of course, there is another actor,
39:12 called Iran, we must not forget.
39:14 Iran, which is spinning like a wheel.
39:16 We saw them recently
39:18 with the neighbors of the East.
39:20 Maybe for Gaza,
39:22 but there are a lot of things
39:24 that they are seeing together.
39:26 So,
39:28 we must see
39:30 Iran.
39:32 Trump, who left the agreement
39:34 with the Iranians.
39:36 Biden, what did he do?
39:38 In 4 years, Biden did not do anything.
39:40 He did not come back to what he did with Obama.
39:42 He was the vice president with Obama,
39:44 he did not come back to that.
39:46 So, there are a lot of things
39:48 that have changed in the world.
39:50 And these gentlemen,
39:52 these presidents,
39:54 have also changed,
39:56 either by experience,
39:58 or by...
40:00 Nobody expected it,
40:02 even we, as analysts,
40:04 thought that we were saying Raymond Aran.
40:06 Even Putin said
40:08 we could not, Raymond Aran,
40:10 "Improbable war"
40:12 in a famous book in 1948.
40:14 And yet,
40:16 we thought it was a week or a month,
40:18 now it lasts 2 years and so on.
40:20 So, in the end,
40:22 the world geopolitics
40:24 is open
40:26 to all
40:28 assumptions,
40:30 but the United States
40:32 remains very stable
40:34 in relation to certain
40:36 policies, whatever the...
40:38 I do not know,
40:40 because I do not know to what extent,
40:42 I see you laughing, Hassan Saoud,
40:44 I do not know to what extent
40:46 the world politics is still readable for someone,
40:48 because it evolves so fast,
40:50 with actors who change so fast,
40:52 and conditions that change even faster,
40:54 that finally, very clever,
40:56 the one who could read,
40:58 I cannot answer you to that,
41:00 because there are a lot of things.
41:02 So, let's go to Ukraine.
41:04 There was Bahramut,
41:06 not a big deal, everyone says,
41:08 but it is a city that is falling,
41:10 and then there was Avdivka,
41:12 not a big deal, but it is a city that is falling.
41:14 So, Ukrainians, it is a lack of ammunition,
41:16 it is a lack of men, of soldiers,
41:18 it is also struggles
41:20 at the top of power,
41:22 and it is, in contrast,
41:24 a Russia more sure of itself,
41:26 more triumphant, more conquering,
41:28 more dominating.
41:30 So, I do not have a map to propose to you,
41:32 but in three minutes,
41:34 can you make a situation,
41:36 on the military and operational level?
41:38 You started earlier,
41:40 that is why I stopped you.
41:42 It is in favor of Russia,
41:44 today.
41:46 On the ground,
41:48 in Donbass,
41:50 it is a reality,
41:52 the defensive position,
41:54 the Ukrainian position,
41:56 and there you see
41:58 the ditch that was built
42:00 to delay
42:02 the famous
42:04 counter-offensive.
42:06 There is another thing
42:08 that is, in my opinion,
42:10 important,
42:12 it is yesterday,
42:14 when the Ukrainian president,
42:16 accompanied by the Czech Prime Minister,
42:18 was in Donbass,
42:20 and the Ukrainian president
42:22 was in Donbass,
42:24 it was three days,
42:26 he visited Odessa,
42:28 there was an attack
42:30 by Iskander,
42:32 and that is still
42:34 an important escalation.
42:36 Why?
42:38 Because it is still a visit
42:40 of a president,
42:42 and then of a Prime Minister
42:44 from the North.
42:46 It must be underlined.
42:48 And the drone did not happen to fall
42:50 at the height of the Russian airspace.
42:52 I think it was at 50 or something like that.
42:54 The Russians said
42:56 that they had targeted a depot
42:58 where there were drones,
43:00 because the scarecrow for Russia
43:02 is the drones,
43:04 the aerial drones,
43:06 the naval drones,
43:08 and the submarine drones,
43:10 and Ukrainian technology.
43:12 It is very important,
43:14 because they are still engineers.
43:16 There was obviously this debate
43:18 between the French and the Russians
43:20 about buying it,
43:22 and you said it,
43:24 it was perhaps to boost
43:26 a little commitment,
43:28 but it was a little abandoned
43:30 by everyone.
43:32 The Westerners did not follow NATO.
43:34 But at the level of ammunition,
43:36 there is not so much ammunition,
43:38 when I say ammunition,
43:40 it is ammunition, it is shells,
43:42 it is artillery, it is everything.
43:44 And it is of course the Western bloc
43:46 that has to maintain for itself.
43:48 Absolutely. You are right.
43:50 You know, the delay of Europe
43:52 since the disintegration of Russia,
43:54 Europe believed
43:56 that we were in a world
43:58 of teddy bears,
44:00 and the war was over.
44:02 Even the Yugoslavian sequence
44:04 did not attract attention.
44:06 And so they are very late.
44:08 That is why the French president
44:10 spoke of a
44:14 coalition
44:16 in relation to ammunition,
44:18 shells, missiles,
44:20 cartridges, etc.
44:22 To try to synergize
44:24 for a rapid production,
44:26 given that
44:28 today
44:30 Europeans think
44:32 of the possibility of the failure
44:34 of Biden.
44:36 It is in the drawers.
44:38 What would we do
44:40 if ever
44:42 President Trump
44:44 was elected,
44:46 and if ever
44:48 he made his promises?
44:50 There is also a problem, the German problem.
44:52 The German problem,
44:54 you remember, in Singapore
44:56 there was a meeting of the
44:58 Air Force's
45:00 Chief of Staff,
45:02 of the Air Force
45:04 who was in Singapore,
45:06 and there was a discussion
45:08 where they talked about
45:10 the Taurus.
45:12 The Taurus is a
45:14 German performance missile,
45:16 a Germanos,
45:18 if you will,
45:20 and it has much more
45:22 important capabilities than the Scalp.
45:24 And Russia
45:26 was listening,
45:28 because the General,
45:30 the Chief of the Air Force,
45:32 took the hotel's Wi-Fi in Singapore.
45:34 It was a German scandal.
45:38 Now, the Ukrainians
45:40 need the Taurus.
45:42 Why?
45:44 It is for the Kerch Bridge.
45:46 Because this missile...
45:48 For the bridge that connects continental Russia to Crimea.
45:50 Absolutely.
45:52 It is called the Pudin Bridge.
45:54 The Pudin Bridge because this missile
45:56 has extraordinary capabilities
45:58 of penetration and explosion.
46:00 And so it aims at the Kerch Bridge
46:02 to try to cut
46:04 all Russian supply.
46:06 So the situation
46:08 is not very clear.
46:10 But we can say that globally,
46:12 Ukraine is in trouble.
46:14 Internally, how is the situation
46:16 in Ukraine?
46:18 You know that
46:20 General Valuzhny was replaced
46:22 by another Sersky who had
46:24 Soviet training.
46:26 You know that the election
46:28 that was scheduled for the end of March
46:30 was postponed.
46:32 All this happens at a time
46:34 when there is no international environment
46:36 that can make Ukraine go to the background.
46:38 It is the Houthis, it is RZA,
46:40 it is something else.
46:42 Do you think that in Ukraine
46:44 there is no kind of
46:46 Ralbol that is being established
46:48 and that we are seeing as a fight
46:50 at the top of the state?
46:52 Yes, because I think that
46:54 even the change of the head of the State Major
46:56 is an expression
46:58 in the face of the Ralbol of the Ukrainians.
47:00 The State Major
47:02 is very popular.
47:04 Yes, because there are elections,
47:06 he was very popular
47:08 and there was the possibility
47:10 that he would present himself
47:12 in the elections against Zelensky.
47:14 So there is a Ralbol
47:16 because this head of the State Major
47:18 was replaced
47:20 by someone
47:22 who is a "Vatanger".
47:24 You said that he is
47:26 what we call a Soviet
47:28 or Soviet training.
47:30 I always quote him
47:32 because I am sitting next to you.
47:34 Boucher.
47:36 Yes, Boucher, but I quote Tolstoy.
47:38 Now it is not a war between nations,
47:40 but peace and war.
47:42 And these are populations
47:44 that when they go to war
47:46 they don't count the number of deaths.
47:48 This is the Soviet doctrine.
47:50 Yes, so here is the Soviet.
47:52 But Ukraine,
47:54 do it have the means
47:56 of its ambitions?
47:58 The Americans,
48:00 can they still support
48:02 as they have done
48:04 for two years
48:06 with Ukraine?
48:08 Biden,
48:10 will he play on this?
48:12 Because at a certain point,
48:14 yes, he supports Ukraine,
48:16 but we saw that there was
48:18 a shutdown
48:20 in relation to the budget
48:22 dedicated to the war in Ukraine.
48:24 Will he still play on this line?
48:26 Even though Trump
48:28 says he will come and
48:30 quickly settle things.
48:32 This is a challenge.
48:34 Ukraine is not independent
48:36 in its decision-making.
48:38 We have also talked about
48:40 the Europeans,
48:42 what happened with the German officers,
48:44 the declaration of the French president.
48:46 Can Europe
48:48 really
48:50 replace the United States
48:52 or
48:54 participate in this war
48:56 more than it has already done?
48:58 Does it have the means?
49:00 There are elections
49:02 of the European Parliament.
49:04 We know that it is the right,
49:06 or the extreme right,
49:08 that is prevalent today
49:10 in Europe and that is not
49:12 for the war with Russia.
49:14 There are other electoral issues
49:16 that are happening in Europe.
49:18 Ukraine is not independent.
49:20 It does not have the means
49:22 to win the war.
49:24 It is not independent of the war effort.
49:26 We will continue after the lassitude
49:28 of Zakaria Butaev.
49:30 We will finish with you
49:32 because the time has already passed.
49:34 After the Ukrainian lassitude
49:36 on which Ali El-Khareshi just answered,
49:38 the Western public opinions.
49:40 After two years,
49:42 we start the third year.
49:44 There is a sort of lassitude
49:46 that is beginning to take place
49:48 both in the United States
49:50 and in Europe.
49:52 It is a fundamental thing
49:54 to change the course of the war.
49:56 The Western leaders
49:58 are more interested
50:00 in agriculture
50:02 and the strike of agricultural unions
50:04 than in what is happening today.
50:06 The public opinions
50:08 say that you invest a lot of money
50:10 in the war
50:12 while we have nothing.
50:14 I think that the war
50:16 between Israel and Hamas
50:18 and Russia and Ukraine
50:20 took advantage of Mr. Putin.
50:22 He made some tactical advances.
50:24 He did not win the war yet
50:26 but he won a lot of battles.
50:28 But it is a conflict
50:30 that is almost forgotten.
50:32 Except if there will be
50:34 humanitarian tragedies.
50:36 We do not know yet
50:38 because there are still questions
50:40 that are hidden or veiled.
50:42 Mr. Putin said
50:44 that if there will be
50:46 direct involvement of the Western countries
50:48 he would not hesitate
50:50 to mobilize
50:52 the nuclear arsenal
50:54 and attack.
50:56 When we know that Mr. Macron
50:58 even proposed the sending of troops
51:00 if Hassan said that troops
51:02 is a generic term
51:04 but I understood that it is military troops.
51:06 I do not know if it is only
51:08 rhetoric but Mr. Macron
51:10 is known for loving
51:12 concepts.
51:14 I think that
51:16 the situation must stop.
51:18 The international economy suffered.
51:20 Today, in addition to what happened
51:22 since February 2022
51:24 the issue of the Houthis,
51:26 the cargo attack,
51:28 the economic and commercial crisis
51:30 even the last ministerial conference
51:32 of the WTO took place in Dubai.
51:34 I do not remember.
51:36 Today, there must be a solution.
51:38 And as the subject of today
51:40 is the link
51:42 between the US presidential election
51:44 and the situation in Ukraine
51:46 probably
51:48 there will be a turn
51:50 or a change
51:52 of the world in case
51:54 Mr. Trump will return to business.
51:56 We will see.
51:58 A political addition to this
52:00 is the problem of the Transnistria.
52:02 The region
52:04 east of Moldova
52:06 which is next to the West.
52:08 They just asked
52:10 for the support
52:12 of Russia as was done
52:14 in Donbass.
52:16 It will certainly be
52:18 granted. It is an escalation
52:20 of more. Especially
52:22 on the supply plan
52:24 Odessa plays an important role.
52:26 And Sweden which becomes a member of NATO.
52:28 Officially, for two days.
52:30 There are additional risks
52:32 for this region.
52:34 After 52 minutes, it is the flow for the US elections
52:36 and it is also the flow for the war in Ukraine.
52:38 I hope that all this will be arranged.
52:40 Thank you Zakaria Boudaha.
52:42 Thank you Colonel Hassan Saoud.
52:44 Thank you for being with us
52:46 throughout this show.
52:48 Ramadan Mubarak Said.
52:50 See you next week.
52:52 [Music]