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00:00More headlines around the National Football League as we set the stage for week 13 on the horizon.
00:06Joe, we touched on this rather briefly in the opening segment of our opening hour.
00:11The New York Jets retaining the guidance of the 33rd team, an NFL organization that is also
00:18involved in media that features former executives, former head coaches around the NFL, even some
00:25breaking news guys, to really kind of have a pulse of the NFL. And the Jets are using the 33rd team
00:32to help them in the search for a new general manager and head coach. A member, by the way,
00:38of the 33rd team, that's former Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum. Nothing like using the
00:44guy that you had to fire to get the new guy that you had to fire to help you get the next guy.
00:49Again, none of this makes any sense, but I do think it's a reflection on the Jets' ownership.
00:57And Woody Johnson here. Woody Johnson is not a new owner, Ben. He is not, you know, recently in the NFL
01:06owning a team like we saw with David Tepper in Carolina. This is a guy that has been in the NFL
01:12for decades. And the fact that you need an organization to tell you and point to you who
01:18the right football people are to have in the NFL is a little mind-numbing to me. But I think it just
01:25reflects, once again, on the problem with the Jets organization. It starts at the top and it starts
01:32with ownership making decisions like they made this year on coaches and a GM midseason and hiring
01:38a group headed by the guy that buried your franchise last time he was there.
01:45Again, there are a lot of reports about what has happened for this gangrene organization in this
01:51very tumultuous 2024 season, where Woody Johnson, the owner, exerting his influence despite the
01:58actual football decision makers telling him to be cautious. And Woody Johnson even going against
02:05the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers. Sometimes the hubris and pride of owners because they are rich
02:12or because daddy was rich and they inherited all of the wealth can stand in the way of good
02:19football decision making. What we do know though, the New York Jets and the optimism as a 3-8
02:27football team has dwindled away. The New York Jets are going to miss the postseason for a 14th
02:33consecutive year. It is by far the longest active drought in the National Football League and it
02:38doesn't just stop, Joe, at the NFL. Also including the NBA, MLB and the NHL. It is the
02:45longest active playoff drought in any of the four major men's professional sports leagues in North
02:53America. So good job, Woody. Yeah, and you can't figure out why there is a new logo coming with
03:03just a picture of a dumpster fire. And that's the reason why, once again, decisions continue to be
03:09made that are head-scratching with this organization. And my goodness, how much longer can the fans
03:16stay around, Ben? I just don't, I just don't get it. And I have said, Joe, right, that you invested so
03:23much into Aaron Rodgers. You let him call a lot of the shots for your organization. Your head coach
03:29is gone. Your general manager is gone. And you have a 40-year-old quarterback who does not seem
03:34fully committed to playing in the National Football League as he approaches year number 41 of his life
03:41in year number 21 of his NFL career. Fine. You're going to have to rebuild once again. What exactly
03:48are you rebuilding? You are a franchise, as I just expressed, that will not make the postseason for
03:5414 straight seasons. But you are again rebuilding. And the track record of rebuilding success as of
04:03late for New York has not been very successful here for the Jets. Some positive quarterback news
04:11elsewhere around the NFL, also for two incredibly disappointing teams this season. Brock Purdy back
04:17at practice, or at least throwing without issue on Monday. Trevor Lawrence returns to practice for the
04:23Jacksonville Jaguars. I was looking forward to more Matt Jones this week. But unfortunately, it
04:30looks like maybe just maybe Trevor Lawrence will be back. And well, there's really no difference
04:35between those two anyway, statistically. Yeah. Two-way football team Jacksonville. It's a five
04:41and a half point home dog against the Texans. Houston desperately needs it. So too does San
04:47Francisco. Sunday night in Buffalo, six and a half point underdog currently. Let's set the stage
04:53for Turkey Day. This is a week of football and family. Thanksgiving is just two days away.
05:01And of course, to celebrate in the National Football League, it's turkey legs, and it's a
05:07triple header. Three games that begin bright and early on Thursday in Detroit with the NFL's best
05:15team. There was a time, Joe, when growing up for me out on the West Coast to wake up around nine,
05:22nine 30am, especially maybe in my high school or college years, when the libations started to flow
05:29on the night before Thanksgiving known as blackout Wednesday, you get back with the people you're
05:34having a fun time. It was a little bit difficult to wake up for that 930am Pacific time start
05:42with the Lions, right? Not anymore. Not the same old lions. It's appointment television. Anytime
05:51the 10 and one Detroit Lions take the football field and an NFC North dual to start off Thanksgiving
05:59hosting the Chicago Bears. It is though a rather large spread to start off Turkey Day, a 10 and a
06:05half point number in favor of Detroit total at 48 and a half. What can we expect for the first
06:12course on Thanksgiving? Yeah, well, a blowout on Thanksgiving has told us over the years, Ben,
06:21that the chalk is really dominated these games in Thanksgiving. In fact, I believe since 2004,
06:29favorites on Thanksgiving been 48, nine straight up 3819 against the spread. And if you're a
06:36double digit favorite, well, those are nine and all against the number on Thanksgiving since 2005
06:43and 11 and oh, since the wildcard era back in 1990. So it has always been profitable to back
06:50the chalk on Thanksgiving here, even the double digit kind. And when that chalk is the best cover
06:58team in the National Football League in the last three and a half years, you can feel even a tad
07:03more confident Detroit since the start of 2023 19 and seven against the spread this year in their
07:1010 victories. They have covered nine times. Meanwhile, Chicago to covers in a row or at least
07:17a push depending on where you got that closing number on Sunday against the Vikings. But anytime
07:23Chicago has covered a number or not lost against the spread, a pure non cover Joe, they have been
07:31at home short week, early start on the road in Detroit, not necessarily a recipe for success.
07:41The Bears have lost five straight games. They had gone under in their first four of these five
07:47straight losses. They went over of course against Minnesota in a large way even before over time
07:54with that rally down by two touchdowns in the fourth and final quarter. So we know that the
08:00favorites are generally going to win rather comfortably and maybe even cover as a double
08:06digit favorite on Thanksgiving just so many benefits of being at home being there on a
08:13short week and it's not short week prime time those additional hours crucial. This is short
08:18week 1230 p.m. local time start in the Motor City. But Joe what does that mean then for points
08:2548 and a half is a lot for a short week Thursday night game especially a short week Thursday game
08:33that kicks a little bit after lunch. Yeah and another one of these situations man where
08:39yeah the overs have actually been uh not a bad look in these uh in these games here a little less
08:45defense a little more offense especially when we're talking about a team band that has already
08:50dropped 50 plus points how many times this year and should not have a problem doing it a again
08:58I don't think uh they are in jeopardy of losing like we saw Green Bay beat them uh with Detroit
09:04being a favorite a year ago which ruined the hopes and dreams of a lot of people that were in
09:09a survivor pool last Thanksgiving. I don't see that happening again this year with Detroit.
09:15I do think a lot of points could very well be coming in this game. I mean how many had Minnesota
09:22lighten them up last week against that defense. And so again when you look at these numbers
09:28Detroit as a double-digit favorite twice this year against other teams that were sub 500 as
09:35Chicago is. Tennessee at home they scored 52. Cover the number winning 52 to 14 easily over
09:4445 and a hook. Who else were they a double-digit favorite against in fact the largest favorite of
09:49the year so far against Jacksonville two Sundays ago we know the score 52 points 52 to 6 the final
09:58score a cover and an over for Detroit. Now I don't think Chicago is as bad despite what the record
10:05says as a Jacksonville as a Tennessee right now but we know the Lions like to beat up on bad teams
10:13we could see some points. Now let's talk Lions in general. Ten and one many people feel Detroit is
10:20the best team in the National Football League. It's hard to argue that the Super Bowl favorites
10:25at a three to one number two dollars in front now of Kansas City the short favorites to win
10:30the NFC a minus 600 favorite to win the division for a second consecutive year after going three
10:37decades without a divisional championship and a minus 250 favorite to be that one seed in the NFC.
10:44Are there any of those categories Joe any of those four betting markets that you believe
10:50Detroit is not worthy of the price associated? No they're not I mean what else do you want from
10:57them at this point the schedule still remains extremely favorable for them the ability to play
11:04indoors once again favors them. The only thing I'm worried about with this Detroit team is as
11:11you know how many more injuries can they sustain certainly on the defensive side of the ball before
11:16it starts to catch up with them but I'm not exactly sure that the Chicago Bears are a team
11:22that are going to be able to take advantage of any of the deficiencies they have defensively
11:27right now. So I'm not worried about it in the immediate future but once we get to January
11:35it may come into play but as of right now all those numbers very worthy of a ten and one team.
11:42I bet the Detroit Lions to win Super Bowl 59 at a six to one number now double what it is now
11:48just about a month ago so we have seen that price grow shorter and shorter week over week as
11:53Detroit's dominance continues to grow. Of course the Lions have won an NFL championship but that
12:00was before the Super Bowl era and before the merger way back in 1957. The Lions have not just
12:06failed to ever win a Lombardi trophy Joe they have never played in the big game they have never
12:13played in a Super Bowl so to be the short Super Bowl favorites this is very new territory in the
12:20Motor City. First course the Lions and the Bears a divisional duel on Thanksgiving a ten and a half
12:27point spread maybe you're thinking ten and a half points how close is this game gonna be is it even
12:31good I'd actually rather watch the first course than the second course because the Cowboys will
12:37host the New York Giants at the star. Dallas a three and a half point favorite against the G-men
12:43the total 37 and a half it was 36 and a hook earlier in the week I actually think this could
12:50get a little helter skelter if albeit in an ugly fashion maybe we just hope for points in the second
12:56course of the turkey day triple header. You know in the last 20 years Ben only three games on
13:03Thanksgiving have closed with a total below 40 and that'll be well this will be the fourth right
13:10because this is not getting up at over 37 and a half it's not even going to sniff 40. Two and one
13:16to the over Ben in those previous three I just can't see well I mean who are we kidding the
13:23Giants defense pretty much rolled over at home against Tampa maybe we get a ton of points in this
13:29game here. They allowed 30 right and then the Cowboys played in a game where 31 points were
13:37scored in the final three minutes of regulation so maybe just maybe everybody get ready to learn
13:44Cooper Rush versus Tommy DeVito. Tommy Cutlets in his first game back starting with the New York
13:52Giants barely over that number but not to 180 did utilize his legs more than 30 rushing yards
13:59Cooper Rush there are the prices look at those numbers to throw three plus touchdowns yeah I
14:06don't see that happening even if we get some offense on Thanksgiving. The turkey day nightcap
14:13though it's a good one at Lambeau. All right so the first course of our Thanksgiving triple header
14:19in the NFL at least features the best team in the National Football League that's the Detroit Lions
14:24at 10 and one and a three to one price as the Super Bowl 59 favorites. We'll see if Chicago can
14:32keep the game close because it is a 10 and a half point spread in favor of the home team of the
14:37Motor City that being the Lions. The second game is between two teams that are well under 500 at
14:45this moment it's the four and seven Dallas Cowboys and the two and nine New York Giants it's Cooper
14:53Rush against Tommy DeVito. Three and a half point spread in favor of Dallas at home in the start
15:00if neither of those first two courses seem all that appetizing we'll just wait until the nightcap
15:06because the third course is going to be a feast a great game to cap off turkey day at Lambeau
15:14Field. The Green Bay Packers an eight and three football team and a three and a half point favorite
15:19against a Miami Dolphins team that is trying to fight its way back into playoff positioning. The
15:25Dolphins have won three straight and covered in four in a row with the return of Tua Tungavailoa
15:32in a five-game span since his return from injured reserve. Three and a half point spread in favor
15:39of Lambeau. How competitive will the nightcap on Thanksgiving be?
15:45Well and what is more importantly right what's the temperature of the nightcap here since we have
15:50Tua showing up and Miami and that's currently it looks like the average temperature at Lambeau
15:58on Thursday night for this time of year will be just about 30 degrees or maybe just under what
16:05about 7 to 10 miles per hour. We already know Tua has played in 40 sub 40 temperatures uh four
16:12times with the Dolphins Ben and he is oh and four straight up in one and three against the number
16:18even worse he fails to cover those spreads by 18 points a game. So we've got an issue here if you
16:25think the weather the coldness is going to be what hampers Tua. I don't happen to think so in this
16:32particular spot. I don't think it's going to be double digit wins uh you know cold is cold but
16:38after having played in that what minus four degree Kansas City game last year this should seem like
16:44a vacation for Tua and Miami. I do think uh I don't like Jordan Love as a favorite. It's not
16:51been a profitable endeavor in his uh short career. I do think Miami is certainly playing well enough
16:58to be able to keep this game within a field goal even win it outright but we also know night games
17:05on Thanksgiving Ben you know what they tend to do they tend to go under the total and they have
17:11for quite a while now so uh that might be a lofty number for these two teams offensively to hit
17:17might all be about the defenses here on a short week. And maybe it will be Joe despite the fact
17:23in the five games since Tunga Bailoa's return the Dolphins have scored at least 23 points in
17:29all five games. They had not scored more than 20 in the first six games of the year. They're
17:35averaging 29 points per game and they have gone over the total in four of the five with Tua back.
17:41Again they have covered in four straight. They have won three in a row. They have won and covered
17:48in all three of those games including outright as an underdog once. That was the game in LA on a
17:55Monday night albeit indoors inside SoFi Stadium. In fact Joe they have been an underdog only four
18:02times this year. Twice without Tua Tunga Bailoa and twice with they've actually covered in both
18:10games as a dog with Tunga Bailoa as the starting quarterback. Why do I highlight that? Because what
18:16has been the knock against the Finns with Mike McDaniel with Tua? Their inability to even keep
18:23games competitive when not expected to win said game. As a favorite since the start of last year
18:31the Miami Dolphins and a couple of these losses without Tua Tunga Bailoa in the lineup two to be
18:37exact. But as a favorite since the start of last year the Miami Dolphins are 14 and four straight
18:43up. They are 13 and five against the number. That is pretty good or excuse me 12 and 6 against the
18:51number but still a really good cover team. As an underdog since the start of last year three and
18:59nine ATS. Two of those three covers coming this year with Tua under center and just two outright
19:07wins and that's what Miami is looking for because of the injury to Tua Tunga Bailoa earlier in the
19:14year and dropping the first two games despite looking better in his return. The Dolphins are
19:19still sub 500 Joe with a five and six record. They need to stack up wins even unlikely games on a
19:27short week in the cold at a place known as the frozen tundra. We'll see if they can do that on
19:33Thursday night. Yeah and listen again I think that this is all going to come down to the both of
19:41these defenses being able to slow uh the other team. When we have gotten totals of 43 or more
19:48on Thanksgiving night eight and three to the under in that span here. Short week of rest LaFleur has
19:55not been great on short rest there especially as a favorite. His numbers of one and six I believe is
20:01what we're looking at there against the number. Yeah that hook as long as it's available it looks
20:07to me like Miami's got the value here. Again it's going to be cold but it's not going to be what we
20:14saw against Kansas City last year. So yeah I think Miami would be fine from that opportunity.
20:20That was the fourth coldest game on record in the history of the NFL. Even I think colder than the
20:26ice ball but I'm not even entirely sure on that. It's supposed to be around 33 uh 33 degrees
20:33for most of Thursday in Green Bay on Thanksgiving. The wind's not especially terrible so the feels
20:40like temperature probably not going to be all that much worse than 30 degrees Fahrenheit. A seven
20:46percent chance of snow as we get into those evening hours. Again the Dolphins right now plus 250 price
20:54to see the postseason. The Packers are eight and three straight up. One of those three teams in the
20:59NFC North. Five games above 500 or better and a minus 2,000 favorite Joe to see the playoffs.
21:07Yeah uh they have a shot. They have a legit shot here because the schedule favors them. If they can
21:13win this one Ben yeah uh take the 250 now because it's not going to be available there Friday that's
21:22for sure. Yeah that being for the Miami Dolphins for sure. The Packers still the third best price
21:28to win the NFC championship. It hasn't looked overly optimistic at times despite an 8-3 record
21:35with Jordan Love under center. Black Friday football next. Not just a turkey day triple
21:40header around Thanksgiving and the holiday weekend in the National Football League but Black Friday
21:45football as well and not just in the NFL because I am a college football guy. Black Friday is
21:51normally a day reserved for college football. Not the last few years as the NFL encroaches on
21:57everything but regardless let's talk some Black Friday football. Friday 3 p.m eastern time. Kick
22:02inside arrowhead between the Chiefs and the Raiders who played last year on Christmas and it
22:09was Las Vegas pulling off an outright upset as a double digit dog inside arrowhead. Could the
22:18holidays bring more joy for a Las Vegas team Joe that has dropped seven consecutive games and has
22:25covered just once in the seven game skid. They are a 13 that being the Raiders a 13 and a half point
22:34underdog in KCMO on Friday afternoon. Ben listen it's well documented Kansas City is not to be
22:43trusted to cover big spreads. Certainly not trusted to go double digit wise here in this
22:51game. I don't care who they're playing. I just think that you're better off looking for team
22:57totals with Kansas City if you're going to go that route. Maybe fade Desmond Ritter and the Raiders
23:03their team total. I would avoid laying 13 and a half points with Kansas City who continues to
23:11burn money for people who bet them thinking there's a blowout written all over it. That's
23:17not who this Kansas City team is this year. You'd be foolish at this point to think this is the game.
23:23They're going to actually blow somebody out. Not going to happen for me. Their team total would be
23:28the only way I'd look. And listen I did misspeak slightly. The Raiders have covered twice in this
23:34seven game skid including in a game against the Chiefs just about a month ago in Las Vegas.
23:42I think there's going to be another coaching change in Las Vegas at the end of this year.
23:46I'm not sure Antonio Pierce has what it takes at this moment to be the head coach of this Raiders
23:52organization. But in terms of buy-in and mentality led by Antonio Pierce we know that the Raiders
23:59circle these games against the Chiefs. Viral clips over the summer talking about the Jordan
24:06rules for Mahomes when the Raiders play the Chiefs. Alluding back to the Pistons and the
24:11Bulls of the 80s and the 90s and the bad boys of Motown trying to rough up Michael Jordan. Now
24:18the Raiders did not come close to winning that football game just about a month ago
24:22at Allegiant Stadium. But they did end up covering because of a late touchdown pass
24:27from Gardner Minshew around two minutes remaining in regulation. It was a game where the Chiefs were
24:32laying more than a touchdown. In fact as a six and a half point favorite or greater this year
24:37Kansas City is just one and five against the spread. In four of those five non-covers the games
24:44have gone over. In six of the seven consecutive L's for Las Vegas at this moment the game has
24:51gone over. So perhaps it is either an absolute clunker that Kansas City wins 13 to 7 or the
24:58Chiefs do understand how much the Raiders have invested into this game and light up the scoreboard
25:05but the Raiders do enough to keep pace and we go over 42 and a half. But Joe to your point this
25:12would not be the time that I look at myself and say this Kansas City team is going to finally blow
25:20somebody out because the Chiefs are making history in the NFL. The first team in NFL history to win
25:26eight of their first 11 games by only a single score seven points or less. I don't know if this
25:34is the time that Casey wins by two scores in fact two touchdowns. Yeah no I don't and we also have
25:42to keep in mind I know O'Connell who broke his thumb uh right it did practice uh yesterday they
25:50he could very well be available for this game so while it's uh they have Desmond Ritter penciled
25:56in I would not be shocked uh if O'Connell is also available to go under center in this one
26:03and then it's really potluck at that point what you're going to get offensively for the Raiders.
26:08And again when you looked at Patrick Mahomes starting off this season not great in terms of
26:14the touchdown to INT ratio. Six TDs to eight INTs entering that final Sunday in October
26:20in Las Vegas. He threw multiple touchdowns he did throw a pick but he started to clean up the
26:25interceptions after that. In fact in four of the last five Patrick Mahomes has thrown multiple
26:32touchdowns. So there are different ways to approach this if you think the Chiefs might
26:36win comfortably or at least score enough points to be out in front of Las Vegas early. Mahomes to
26:43throw one and a half touchdowns has the juice on the over at minus 140. All right that does it for
26:50hour number two. Hour number three on the horizon up next on the early line.