Asosiasi Pengusaha Pusat Belanja Indonesia (APPBI) menilai, naiknya tarif PPN menjadi 12% tahun depan akan mengakibatkan harga produk di pusat-pusat perbelanjaan ikut terkerek. “Ini akan memberatkan masyarakat terutama untuk kelas menengah bawah yang saat ini masih mengalami kesulitan dalam hal daya beli,” kata Alphonzus Widjaja, Ketua Umum APPBI.
Menurutnya, tarif PPN yang berlaku saat ini termasuk dalam kategori yang tidak rendah, jika dibanding dengan tarif yang berlaku di beberapa negara tetangga. Oleh karena itu, dia melihat tidak ada alasan mendesak untuk mengerek tarif PPN tahun depan.
Meskipun pemerintah tetap bersikeras untuk memberlakukan kenaikan tarif PPN menjadi 12%, APPBI berharap kebijakan tersebut diimbangi dengan berbagai stimulus untuk masyarakat. Hal itu agar daya beli masyarakat kelas menengah bawah tidak semakin terpuruk.
Alphonzus khawatir, pertumbuhan sektor ritel tahun depan hanya di bawah 10%, jika penerapan PPN 12% tidak diiringi dengan adanya stimulus bagi masyarakat kelas menengah bawah.
Menurutnya, tarif PPN yang berlaku saat ini termasuk dalam kategori yang tidak rendah, jika dibanding dengan tarif yang berlaku di beberapa negara tetangga. Oleh karena itu, dia melihat tidak ada alasan mendesak untuk mengerek tarif PPN tahun depan.
Meskipun pemerintah tetap bersikeras untuk memberlakukan kenaikan tarif PPN menjadi 12%, APPBI berharap kebijakan tersebut diimbangi dengan berbagai stimulus untuk masyarakat. Hal itu agar daya beli masyarakat kelas menengah bawah tidak semakin terpuruk.
Alphonzus khawatir, pertumbuhan sektor ritel tahun depan hanya di bawah 10%, jika penerapan PPN 12% tidak diiringi dengan adanya stimulus bagi masyarakat kelas menengah bawah.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Growth and Innovation
00:05Indonesia's Growth and Innovation
00:13The government has ensured that the GDP growth rate will remain at 12%
00:18since the beginning of 2025.
00:21The Association for the Management of the Indonesian Shopping Center
00:25has decided to balance the GDP growth rate with stimulus to increase the people's purchasing power.
00:35The Ministry of Finance has ensured that the GDP growth rate will remain at 12%
00:42in accordance with the Harmonization Law of the Tax Administration or HPP.
00:48Therefore, the GDP growth rate of 12% will begin to occur on January 1, 2025.
00:58The Ministry of Finance said that increasing the GDP growth rate to 12% is a step to maintain the condition of the APBN
01:05which functions as an economic barrier, including when there is a crisis at a global level.
01:13So here we have discussed with you, there is already a law.
01:18We need to prepare it so that it can be implemented, but with a good explanation.
01:24So that we can still, not blindly, but the APBN must continue to maintain its health.
01:31However, at other times, the APBN must function and be able to respond
01:37as we have seen in episodes such as the global financial crisis,
01:42when there was a pandemic, we used the APBN.
01:49However, Sri Mulyani insisted that there will be a number of goods and services
01:53that will be charged a lower PPN rate of 12%, even charged a PPN of 0%.
02:01Implementing the APBN plan, the Indonesian Shopping Center Administration Association or APBBI hopes
02:09The Indonesian Government has considered re-adopting the PPN rate of 12% starting early 2025.
02:19The APBBI Chairperson Alphonso Swijaya estimates that increasing the PPN rate to 12% will have a negative impact
02:26on consumers, although the visiting rate will not decline.
02:33Therefore, if the government continues to increase the PPN rate from 11% to 12% in early 2025,
02:42Alphonsus calls for the policy to be accompanied by various stimulus
02:47so that the purchasing power of lower-middle class people is not getting worse.
02:52From Jakarta, IDX Channel coverage team.
03:22We are also joined by Mas Yusuf Rendi, Manilat Peneliti Ekonomi Korp Indonesia.
03:25Hello Mas Yusuf, how are you?
03:28Good evening, Mas Prakas.
03:29Thank you for the opportunity.
03:32Good evening, Pak Alphonso.
03:34Pak Alphonso, we will first update on the condition of the Indonesian Shopping Center
03:39before we discuss the plan to increase the PPN rate of 12% in early next year.
03:46Yes, I think in 2024, the Shopping Center will face challenges,
03:53especially those in lower-middle class because of the purchasing power problem.
03:58Actually, this has been felt since the beginning of 2024.
04:03But in the first semester, we were a little helped by some important moments,
04:11such as the New Year, the Pilpres, Pilpres Relative Conducive,
04:18then Imlek, Ramadan, and Idul Fitri are all in the first semester of 2024.
04:25So, the purchasing power of lower-middle class people is a little supported
04:30by various moments.
04:33Moreover, Eid is the peak of retail sales in Indonesia.
04:38Entering the second semester or after Idul Fitri,
04:42the trend in Indonesia is always low season.
04:46In various situations and conditions, the trend is like that.
04:50However, this year, the low season is very deep.
04:55Because of the impact of the purchasing power of lower-middle class people.
05:02So, that's what happened.
05:04Actually, in terms of the visiting rate,
05:07there is no significant decrease compared to last year.
05:14There is still an increase, but it's relatively single-digit.
05:19It's not significant.
05:21But what has changed is the trend of people's shopping.
05:24So, they still come to the shopping center,
05:27but especially those in lower-middle class,
05:30the shopping pattern has changed.
05:32So, they now choose products
05:36whose unit price is low or cheap.
05:41That's what happened.
05:43That's why some retailers
05:46who are in the product category
05:48are still aggressive in opening new stores.
05:52Because people are heading there.
05:55So, I think that's what's happening right now.
05:58Well, we do have a hope
06:01that in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025,
06:06the purchasing power will be a little better.
06:08Why?
06:09Because in Q4 2024,
06:12there will be an election.
06:14Then, December will be Christmas.
06:17As we know, Christmas and New Year
06:19are the second peak of Indonesian retail sales
06:22after Eid al-Fitr.
06:24Then, in Q1, there will be New Year.
06:27Then, there will be Eid al-Fitr.
06:29Then, there will be Ramadhan.
06:31Ramadhan and Eid al-Fitr.
06:32Because Ramadhan and Eid al-Fitr will be more advanced next year.
06:35So, Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
06:41should be a little better.
06:44It can solve the problem of people's purchasing power,
06:47especially those in lower-middle class.
06:49Because of those moments in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.
06:55However, we are a little worried.
06:58Maybe, what you said earlier,
07:00the problem of people's purchasing power.
07:02Maybe, we will discuss it later.
07:04But, that's the situation.
07:06That's it.
07:07Thank you, Mr. Fonsus, for the update.
07:10Mr. Yusuf Randy Manilet,
07:12what do you think about Indonesia's core
07:14related to the implementation of people's purchasing power 12%
07:17compared to 11% before?
07:19Do you think this will have an impact
07:21on the domestic industry sectors,
07:23including shopping and retail sectors?
07:27Yes, I think this will have an impact.
07:29Because we know that
07:31people's purchasing power is regressive.
07:34Then, it is affected by several components
07:38of goods and services groups.
07:41So, this will have an effect
07:45on the price change.
07:47So, the price can change
07:50because there are additional costs
07:52that are incurred, especially by the producer,
07:55for example, because there is a change in the PPN rate
07:58imposed by the government.
08:00Unfortunately, if we talk about momentum,
08:03the price change that will happen
08:06when the government imposes the PPN rate
08:09to become 12%,
08:11it must be seen more clearly.
08:14Because, if we look at the macro indicator data,
08:19there are several components,
08:21especially those related to the people's purchasing power indicator.
08:24In the second semester this year,
08:28it relatively hasn't shown any improvement.
08:30Data such as consumer trust,
08:33then also retail sales,
08:35the condition is not better
08:38compared to the same period last year.
08:41I think if this trend continues
08:47until the end of the year,
08:49then also at the beginning of next year,
08:51this will then have an impact.
08:54Indeed, the potential for household consumption to continue to grow
09:01is still there.
09:02Because if we look at the first quarter,
09:06even the second quarter of this year,
09:08although there is a weakness in the people's purchasing power indicator,
09:12it still grows.
09:13But, the growth indicator is relatively slow.
09:17So, the one that could reach 5.0%
09:21then slowed down to around 4.9%.
09:25And this will eventually have a wider effect
09:29on the target of economic growth
09:31that the government wants to achieve
09:33which will be set next year,
09:37as big as 5.2%.
09:38So this will have a snowball effect
09:41that the previous government did not expect.
09:45That's the preparation stage for businessmen,
09:48especially from shopping centers.
09:50What will it be like?
09:51We will discuss it in the next segment.
09:53Mr. Alfonso, Mr. Rizkof, we will take a short break.
09:56We will be right back after the next break.
10:12MarketReview
10:14You are still watching MarketReview.
10:16In the next segment,
10:17we will share data for you
10:18related to PPN in a number of countries in Asia.
10:21For 2024, we will discuss together
10:23the Philippines, which has the highest position, 12%.
10:26Then Indonesia, 11% for 2024.
10:29Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, each 10%.
10:33Then Singapore, 9%.
10:35Thailand, 7%.
10:36Myanmar, 5%.
10:37And Timor-Leste, 2.5%.
10:40Next, the goal of PPN's increase to 12% in 2025.
10:44What is it?
10:46You can see it in the next slide.
10:48It is related to the goal of PPN's increase.
10:51First, to accelerate economic recovery.
10:53Then, to boost economic growth,
10:55to improve budget deficit,
10:57and to increase the tax ratio.
11:00Next, we will discuss the country's income
11:03from 2018 to 2024 and 2025 projections.
11:09As you can see, the trend continues to increase
11:11for the country's income in Indonesia.
11:14Let's continue our discussion
11:15with Mr. Fonsus Widjaya
11:17and Mr. Yusuf Remy Manilet.
11:21Mr. Fonsus, what is the plan or determination
11:25that has been announced
11:26when 1st of January 2025 comes,
11:28to become 12%?
11:30What is the mitigation and anticipation
11:33that has been prepared?
11:34As you said, there is a good momentum
11:36in quarter 4, 2024.
11:38There is Nataru.
11:39Then, there is a new year in quarter 1.
11:42Then, there is also Eid there.
11:44Please.
11:46Yes, Mr. Fonsus.
11:47Actually, we do not agree
11:50with this PPN's increase.
11:52So, there is a reason.
11:54First, this PPN's increase
11:56will boost the price of goods,
11:58the price of products.
11:59So, I think businessmen
12:01will definitely increase the price
12:04because of this PPN's increase.
12:06This will have an impact on
12:08the price of goods to increase
12:10and have a direct impact
12:12on the lower-middle class
12:14that is currently experiencing
12:16a decrease in purchasing power.
12:18As I have explained earlier.
12:20So, that is the first reason.
12:22I think this will burden
12:24the lower-middle class.
12:26The second reason,
12:28as we have seen the data,
12:32Indonesia's PPN's level
12:34is not that low.
12:36So, I think
12:38in some ASEAN countries,
12:40we are the second highest.
12:42So, there is no urgency
12:44in my opinion
12:46to immediately increase
12:48this PPN's rate.
12:50To increase this PPN's rate again.
12:52So, if we compare it
12:54with other countries,
12:56we are not in a very low position.
12:58The third reason is
13:00the economic growth
13:02or the economic growth
13:04especially in the retail sector
13:06is not optimal yet.
13:08Why don't we
13:10push the transaction
13:12to the maximum
13:14or the growth
13:16to the maximum
13:18and then play with the rate?
13:20Don't do the opposite.
13:22Where at the moment,
13:24the condition of the community,
13:26especially the lower-middle class,
13:28is not good.
13:30Especially in terms of purchasing power.
13:32The government once said
13:34that this is not a sudden thing.
13:36There is a law that was set up
13:38a few years ago and so on.
13:40Yes, it's true.
13:42But when the law was made,
13:44the condition is different from now.
13:46So, I think that's what needs to be changed.
13:48I think there is nothing wrong
13:50to postpone
13:52this condition
13:54because I think the timing is not right.
13:56So, those are some of the reasons
13:58that we told the government
14:00why we
14:02hope
14:04this can be postponed
14:06because the situation and condition
14:08are quite serious.
14:10Actually, there is an example
14:12that I mentioned in the last number
14:14that
14:16at the beginning of 2024,
14:18the government lowered
14:20some regional taxes
14:22such as parking taxes,
14:24entertainment taxes, and so on.
14:26But before that,
14:28the regional governments
14:30were competing to raise the rates.
14:32There were 25% and 35%.
14:34Then, at the beginning of 2024,
14:36based on the labor law,
14:38it was maximized to only 10%.
14:40What happened?
14:42The transaction increased.
14:44The business activities
14:46went up.
14:48So, it's amazing.
14:50For example,
14:52the film industry,
14:54it's amazing.
14:56The players increased.
14:58The number of shops
15:00increased.
15:02The impact was
15:04very positive.
15:06In the end,
15:08even though the rate was lowered
15:10to a maximum of 10%,
15:12the government received
15:14more from the government.
15:16If it was raised first,
15:18it can't stimulate the business.
15:20It can even reduce
15:22the business.
15:24That's what we're worried about.
15:26Then, there was Q4 2024,
15:28Q1 2025.
15:30This is the moment
15:32to increase the purchasing power of the society.
15:34It's an important moment.
15:36We're worried that this is
15:38a hindrance, it won't work
15:40because the government
15:42planned to raise the PPN
15:44at the beginning of 2025, in January,
15:46to 12%.
15:48So, the activities that were
15:50good, optimistic,
15:52can be hindered.
15:54This is interesting.
15:56What do you think?
15:58Even the businessman himself said
16:00it's better to lower it.
16:02And not only the PBI,
16:04almost all sectors have the same condition.
16:06But we know
16:08there are several goals
16:10to raise the PPN at 12%.
16:12To speed up economic recovery,
16:14to boost economic growth,
16:16to improve budget deficit,
16:18to reduce the tax ratio.
16:20Will it be counterproductive
16:22if it's implemented in the future?
16:24Yes, so,
16:26let's go back to the goal
16:28that was mentioned by Mr. Pras,
16:30to speed up economic recovery,
16:32to boost economic growth.
16:34I think if the government
16:36wants to boost
16:38economic growth,
16:40one of the scenarios that can be taken
16:42by the government is to delay
16:44the time to not raise the PPN
16:46to 12%.
16:48Because, as I said before,
16:50the weakening of the people's ability
16:52is relatively still visible.
16:54I'm worried that if it's implemented
16:56in the future,
16:58it can have a bigger effect
17:00on the people's ability
17:02especially for the middle and lower classes.
17:04Okay.
17:06Especially if we know that the middle class
17:08doesn't have stimulus
17:10like the lower class.
17:12So, when there's a price change,
17:14whether they want it or not,
17:16they have to adjust their consumption patterns.
17:18I think Mr. Alfonso has already
17:20mentioned it a little bit.
17:22They buy things at a relatively
17:24lower price.
17:26And if we pay attention
17:28to how
17:30this can
17:32provide a minimum solution
17:34to the government
17:36to continue to boost income.
17:38I think the income
17:40is also affected by economic growth.
17:42So, when the economic growth
17:44can be boosted,
17:46one of them is through household consumption,
17:48then the government
17:50should be able to
17:52boost tax receivables
17:54not only through PPN,
17:56but also through other posts.
17:58For example,
18:00income tax,
18:02or at the regional level,
18:04there is a tax on
18:06vehicles and so on.
18:08So,
18:10this tax can actually
18:12compensate
18:14the potential loss
18:16that the government can get if
18:18they don't increase PPN by 12%.
18:20Then, I also need to
18:22mention one thing about
18:24the potential price change
18:26that can happen next year.
18:28Because we have been discussing
18:30the effects of PPN itself.
18:32But let's not forget
18:34that price change can also be affected
18:36by changes in the global
18:38market.
18:40For example,
18:42Trump has just won the US presidential election,
18:44and the conditions related to
18:46the value of the rupee exchange can change.
18:48Especially if Trump
18:50implements some of his policies.
18:52These conditions will certainly
18:54have a potential effect
18:56on depreciation of the value of the rupee exchange,
18:58which unfortunately
19:00is not very good
19:02for the condition of the industry in the country
19:04because our raw material imports
19:06are still relatively large in proportion.
19:08If the value of these imports
19:10increases because there was
19:12a depreciation of the value of the rupee exchange,
19:14it will also eventually
19:16push business
19:18or producers
19:20to make price adjustments.
19:22So, there are two pushes.
19:24So, there is PPN in the country,
19:26and there is a price change
19:28in the global market
19:30as a result of the value of the exchange.
19:32So, I think this gives a reason
19:34why the government must delay
19:36the time for this increase.
19:38Now, if you look at the portion
19:40that has been done by the government,
19:42are there other sources of income
19:44that can push for the acceptance of the country
19:46so that the target continues to increase?
19:48Is it possible,
19:50because the mechanism
19:52is already structured,
19:54that PPN is the most appropriate
19:56if we increase it in 2025?
19:58Or maybe there are other pushes
20:00that we can increase again,
20:02depending on the economic conditions
20:04and the purchasing power of the people.
20:06Yes, the first point is actually
20:08that when the economic growth
20:10can be pushed,
20:12then the position
20:14besides PPN can be increased.
20:18In addition, the government
20:20can also open options
20:22to make adjustments
20:24to the budget deficit.
20:26So, there will be consequences
20:28related to
20:30the PPN's increase
20:32in the budget deficit.
20:34But in my opinion,
20:36the adjustments related to the budget deficit
20:38can be communicated
20:40as an effort
20:42or a form of the government
20:44to stimulate economic growth
20:46in the country.
20:48In addition,
20:50the government can also play
20:52an instrument such as
20:54export tax,
20:56or import tax,
20:58where when the price
21:00of the middle-class community increases,
21:02it can be adjusted to the tariff
21:04which can help
21:06the purchasing power
21:08as a whole.
21:10So, the government can play
21:12several options to increase
21:14the purchasing power without increasing the PPN.
21:16Okay, that's it. Lastly, just briefly,
21:18Mr. Fonsus, what is your hope?
21:20Is 12% really necessary to be postponed or how?
21:22Yes, we still ask
21:24for the first option
21:26to be canceled or postponed.
21:28But because of
21:30various reasons that I have mentioned earlier,
21:32but if... Because of what?
21:34There is one more thing.
21:36So, Q1 2025,
21:38as I mentioned earlier,
21:40the possibility is optimistic.
21:42But the problem is,
21:44as I have mentioned earlier, after Idulfitri,
21:46it always enters the low season.
21:48That's always the trend in Indonesia.
21:50Now, next year,
21:52Idulfitri's Eid,
21:54what does it mean?
21:56It means that after Eid,
21:58until the end of the year,
22:00it will be very long.
22:02So, the low season will be very long.
22:04So, this is what will
22:06disturb, which is quite
22:08worrying because
22:10the low season next year will be quite long.
22:12So, if the government
22:14is forced to
22:16increase the PPN,
22:18I think it must be accompanied by various stimulus.
22:20Remember,
22:22during the pandemic,
22:24the government gave a lot of stimulus
22:26in a very difficult condition.
22:28So, I think if it's not accompanied by stimulus,
22:30this will be worrying.
22:32Because the low season will be very long next year.
22:34That's the option.
22:36If it's still applied, there are other options
22:38related to the stimulus given to maintain
22:40the purchasing power of the people, of course.
22:42It must be done. Otherwise, it will be difficult.
22:44Okay, Mr. Fonsus. Thank you very much
22:46for the sharing and update that you have
22:48delivered to the audience today.
22:50Mr. Fonsus, thank you for the analysis
22:52that you have delivered to the audience today.
22:54Congratulations on continuing your activity again.
22:56Stay healthy. Mr. Fonsus.
23:00Thank you, Mr. Fonsus.
23:02Thank you, Mr. Fonsus.
23:04Okay, audience. I have accompanied you for an hour
23:06in the market review and continue to share your information
23:08only on IDX channel.
23:10Jotras Worthy and Comprehensive Investment Reference.
23:12Because the matter of the future must move forward.
23:14I am investor Saham.
23:16Yes, I am Prasetyo Wibo
23:18and all staff who are on duty.
23:20Goodbye.
23:22Thank you. See you.