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Today's Weather, 5 A.M. | Nov. 15, 2024

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Transcript
00:00Good morning from the Pag-asa Weather Forecasting Center.
00:04This is our update on the typhoons that we are watching inside our Philippine Area of Responsibility.
00:11Earlier this morning at 4am, the last thing we saw was the center of the Pepito Typhoon
00:18at a distance of 795 kilometers east of Guiwan, Eastern Samar.
00:23This is still another severe tropical storm.
00:25Part of it was strong in the last few hours.
00:27There was a strong gust of wind near the center reaching 110 kilometers per hour
00:33and when it opened, it reached 135 kilometers per hour.
00:37Its movement continued generally westward or downstream at a speed of 25 kilometers per hour.
00:43For now, there is no direct effect on any part of our country.
00:47We can see here in our latest satellite images,
00:50these thick clouds continue to affect a large part of Northern Luzon.
00:56This is still the effect of the Typhoon Ophel.
00:59This is still a typhoon and our latest location as of 4am today
01:05is at a distance of 100 kilometers northwest of Calayan, Cagayan.
01:09There was a strong gust of wind near the center reaching 120 kilometers per hour
01:14and when it opened, it reached 150 kilometers per hour.
01:18Its movement continues north-northwestward at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour
01:22and it is already starting to move towards the extreme northern Luzon area.
01:28A large part of Northern Luzon is still affected.
01:30Today, we can still expect strong winds and strong winds,
01:36particularly in the extreme northern Luzon for the rest of Northern Luzon in the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera, and Cagayan Valley.
01:43In the Cagayan Valley, there is still a chance of heavy rainfall.
01:48The rainfall will gradually decrease for the rest of Luzon.
01:52The fair weather conditions for Visayas and Mindanao will continue
01:56apart from the localized thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
02:02This is the latest track and intensity forecast for the Typhoon Ophel.
02:07This is the tropical cyclone bulletin that we issued as of 5am today.
02:12The generally north-northwestward movement of the typhoon will continue.
02:16We expect that later in the afternoon, it will continue to move away from our land,
02:22possibly leaving our Philippine area of responsibility,
02:26but we also expect the possible entry or re-entry of the Typhoon Ophel here at the boundary of our PAR
02:33before it hits or landfalls here in the Taiwan area.
02:39Throughout the remainder of the forecast period,
02:42due to the continuous interaction of the Typhoon Ophel in the land,
02:47in the areas of the extreme northern Luzon,
02:49and after that interaction in the landmass of the Taiwan area,
02:53we expect continuous weakening.
02:55The environment is no longer favorable.
02:57The environment where the Typhoon Ophel will go,
03:02we expect possible downgrading into a severe tropical storm.
03:06Prior to landfall, this will only be a tropical storm
03:10towards the remnant low.
03:12We expect that while the Philippine area of responsibility is inside,
03:17the Typhoon Ophel will be possible to reach early next week.
03:23This is our latest track and intensity forecast for the Typhoon Pepito.
03:28We expect the generally westward or west-northwestward movement of the typhoon.
03:35The Typhoon Pepito will continue to intensify
03:40and this could be a typhoon within the next 12 hours.
03:44Within the day, we expect this afternoon to be a typhoon category.
03:50The intensification or intensification of the typhoon,
03:54possible by tomorrow,
03:55will be a super typhoon category prior to landfall
03:59here in the northern part of Luzon or Visayas.
04:02We need to give this confidence cone.
04:07It covers a large part of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Eastern Visayas.
04:12This means that these are the areas that could be affected
04:18by landfall or the direct impact of the typhoon's center.
04:22We will see over the weekend, this is the critical period,
04:26this is the time when the Typhoon Pepito's center is closest to our land.
04:31Again, these are the areas of our most likely scenario.
04:35Possible landfall over Central Luzon,
04:38here in the eastern coast of Central Luzon or Southern Luzon,
04:41but we are not removing the possibility of a more southward shift of the typhoon's track.
04:46This is still a part of the eastern coast of Eastern Visayas.
04:51We will be with the succeeding issuance of tropical cyclone bulletins
04:56for this typhoon if there are significant changes in our track scenario.
05:01We expect the landfall of Typhoon Pepito to be peak intensity
05:06or this is the strongest wind brought by the typhoon.
05:11We expect that after landfall over Sakalopaan,
05:19this mainland Luzon will continue to change.
05:22It is possible that there will be a slight weakening of this typhoon
05:26and it will continue to come out of the West Philippine Sea.
05:29It is possible that it will come out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility Monday next week.
05:34And for Typhoon Ophel, even though it is already starting to move away from our country,
05:38we will still experience strong winds in some parts of northern Luzon.
05:43As of 5 a.m. today, we still have Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 3 above us
05:49here in the western portion of Babuyan Islands,
05:52in the northwesternmost portion of Mainland Cagayan,
05:56and here in the northernmost portion of Ilocos Norte in the town of Pagudbud.
06:01And we have Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 in the rest of Babuyan Islands,
06:05here in the northwestern portion of Mainland Cagayan,
06:08northern portion of Apayao, and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte.
06:14Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 in Batanes,
06:16in the northwestern portion of Cagayan,
06:19the northern portion of Isabela,
06:21the northwestern portion of Apayao,
06:24here in the area of Calinga,
06:28northern and central portions of Abra,
06:31in the northwestern portion of Ilocos Norte,
06:33and the northern portion of Ilocos Sur.
06:35In these areas, a large portion of northern Luzon,
06:38we are still prepared, even if this typhoon Ophel is about to leave,
06:42we are still anticipating the wind to open up,
06:44especially in the areas under Wind Signal No. 3,
06:48if possible, the wind we are expecting will still be able to move in the next few hours.
06:53And in anticipation of the approaching typhoon Pepito,
06:57there are still more areas with Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal,
07:01so as of 5 a.m. today,
07:04Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1,
07:06because of the approaching typhoon Pepito,
07:09is already high in the area of Catanduanes,
07:12in the eastern portion of Camarines Norte,
07:15here in the eastern portion of Camarines Sur.
07:18There is also Signal No. 1 here in the eastern portion of Albay,
07:22and here in the eastern and southern portions of Sorsocon.
07:26In the area of Visayas, Signal No. 1,
07:29here in the northern portion of Eastern Samar,
07:32and in the northeastern portion of Samar.
07:35In these areas, we are already prepared,
07:38Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 has a warning or warning lead time.
07:42We are still anticipating, we haven't experienced a strong wind yet.
07:45We expect that within the next 36 hours,
07:48because of the approaching typhoon Pepito,
07:50we will start experiencing the opening of the wind in the next few hours,
07:55or at least in the next few days.
07:57Because of the approaching typhoon,
07:59we hope that Pepito will possibly grow into a super typhoon category.
08:05The highest Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
08:08that we can issue for the typhoon Pepito,
08:11is Wind Signal No. 5.
08:12So as the typhoon Pepito approaches,
08:14we hope that we will experience more areas,
08:18or we will issue a warning signal or wind signal,
08:21possibly the wind signals will increase in some areas,
08:24especially these areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
08:28So let's stay with the succeeding issuances of our Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
08:32for the typhoon Pepito.
08:35In terms of heavy rainfall,
08:36or the strong rains brought by the typhoon,
08:39the rainfall here in the northern Luzon has gradually decreased or decreased.
08:43Moderate to heavy rains are still expected,
08:45but in the areas of Batanes, Baboyan Islands, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte.
08:51However, since we have witnessed widespread flooding in some areas of Cagayan Valley,
08:57in the past few days,
08:59even if the rainfall decreased or decreased,
09:02we should still be prepared,
09:03because the land in these areas is already saturated,
09:05it is still possible for floods and landslides to occur
09:09even if the rainfall we will experience is weak.
09:14In anticipation of the approaching typhoon Pepito,
09:19we hope that as early as tomorrow,
09:22we will experience heavy rainfall in a large part of the southern Luzon,
09:26the Bicol Region, as well as the Eastern Visayas.
09:30The areas shaded in red are intense torrential rains.
09:34More than 200 mm of rainfall is expected in the area of Catanduanes.
09:39Heavy to intense rains in the areas shaded in orange
09:42are in the provinces of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar.
09:50Moderate to heavy rains in the areas shaded in yellow
09:53are in the provinces of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Samar, Biliran, and Salite.
10:00So in these areas, we still hope that due to the approaching typhoon Pepito,
10:06we will have more areas affected by the recent rainfall.
10:09When Sunday comes, this is the peak of rainfall,
10:12or this is the time period when Pepito is closest to our land.
10:18A large part of Central Luzon, some parts of Northern Luzon,
10:24Southern Luzon, as well as Eastern Visayas, will continue to experience rainfalls here.
10:30Rainfalls will be stronger in a large part of the Southern Luzon area.
10:33We still expect intense torrential rains.
10:36Again, these are the areas shaded in red in the provinces of Aurora, Quezon Province,
10:41Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
10:44Heavy to intense rains in the areas shaded in orange
10:47in the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Marinduque, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar.
10:56Moderate to heavy rains in areas shaded in yellow in the provinces of Nueva Vizcaya,
11:01Quirino, Pangasinan, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila,
11:08Cavite, Batangas, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Masbate, Samar, and Eastern Samar.
11:15So in these areas, especially the areas shaded in red and orange,
11:20these are the torrential rains.
11:22We also expect heavy to intense rains in these areas.
11:25These are the areas that will experience the strongest rainfall due to the nearby Baguio-Pepito.
11:30For now, let's prepare for possible floods and landslides
11:35because we expect that over the weekend, heavy rains will start in these areas.
11:40We will start with precautionary measures, especially here in the Bicol region and Eastern Visayas.
11:48And as of 2 a.m., this is the storm surge warning that was issued.
11:53This is the storm surge, especially in the low-lying areas and coastal communities along these coastlines.
12:00So we expect 2.1 to 3 meters of wave height or storm surge height in the areas or coastlines of Batanes,
12:09here in Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.
12:12We expect 1 to 2 meters of storm surge height in the areas or coastlines of Cagayan and Isabela.
12:20This is for the storm surge warning for Baguio-Ofel.
12:24And in anticipation of the nearby Baguio-Pepito, we also issued a storm surge warning for the next 48 hours.
12:34We expect a moderate risk of storm surge here in the areas of Camarines Sur or the coastlines of Camarines Sur as well as Catanduanes.
12:45So 1 to 2 meters of storm surge that we expect in the coastlines of Albay, here in Camarines Sur,
12:53here in the area of Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, and also here in the area of Sorsogon.
13:00So in these areas, let's be prepared, especially in the low-lying areas,
13:03the coastal communities near the coastline of Baybayin, for a possible storm surge.
13:10As of 5 a.m. today, we still have a gale warning.
13:15It is still high in Baguio-Ofel, in the seaboards of Batanes, here in Cagayan, including Baboyan Islands, and the northern coast of Ilocos Norte.
13:25For the fishermen and those who own small sea vehicles in these areas,
13:29if possible, let's not go too far because we can still experience a high sea level caused by the storm.
13:38These are the areas without a gale warning that are high.
13:43We still have a high sea level in the eastern seaboard of Minang Cagayan,
13:47the seaboard of Isabela, in the eastern seaboards of Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands,
13:53Surigao del Norte, including Siargao and Bocas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
13:58So in these areas, our fishermen and fishermen should still be careful.
14:05Because we hope that because of the upcoming storm Pepito,
14:08the stormy sea will start in most of eastern Visayas, as well as the Caraga region.
14:17The next Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Issue 1 for the storm Ophel and Pepito will be later at 11am.
14:27For more information on the weather, especially on heavy rainfall warnings or rainfall advisories
14:33on possible issues of our regional centers and localities,
14:37follow us on our social media accounts at DOST underscore Pag-asa.
14:41Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at DOST Pag-asa Weather Report
14:45and visit our official website at pag-asa.dost.gov.ph.
14:51That's all for the latest from the Pag-asa Weather Forecasting Center.
14:55Good morning to all of you. I am Dan Villamil, reporting for NAGULAT.
15:11For more information, please visit our website at www.nagulat.gov.

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