AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva are monitoring the Caribbean where a risk of tropical development is favorable from Nov. 2-5. Florida is cautioned to keep an eye out on this development.
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00:00Alex, not much has changed in the last 24 hours as we continue to hone in on the Caribbean
00:08for development.
00:09The only change is, you know, we were thinking that we could see development late this week
00:13over the upcoming weekend.
00:15We've kind of pushed that back a little bit here, a day or two, and the concern is mostly
00:20next week.
00:21Yeah, it has been.
00:23Things sometimes develop a little bit slower in the Caribbean, and so it's going to take
00:26this a little bit of time, I think, to develop.
00:29We still think it's going to develop as we head into November here, but yes, we did push
00:32the dates back on a little bit, calling for it now November 2nd through the 5th there
00:37in the central Caribbean.
00:38And then the area to the northeast of Hispaniola there, that yellow area there, I really don't
00:43think that's going to develop.
00:44There's a lot of wind shear out there, but even if it does, that should not be a threat
00:48to the United States.
00:49All right, already this morning, we have a frontal boundary stalled across the southern
00:53Gulf of Mexico.
00:54This is the pattern that we saw last week, already showers and thunderstorms beginning
00:59to develop here.
01:01And as we go through the ingredients, Alex, let's start with this.
01:06I mean, water temperatures typically aren't a concern in this area.
01:11This time of year, they never are, but they're even a little warmer than normal, those water
01:15temperatures.
01:16Yeah, normal in the Caribbean this time of the year would be in the low 80s for water
01:19temperatures.
01:20We're seeing temperatures in the middle 80s, so plenty of juice, plenty of energy.
01:25So this is the warmest part of the basin right there where we're expecting development.
01:28But the wind shear, that is going to be the ingredient that is, let's say, missing as
01:35we head toward the rest of this week.
01:37It's not low wind shear, it's high wind shear.
01:39Yeah, and that's why we think nothing's going to really develop here for the next couple
01:42of days.
01:43You can see that dark purple across pretty much the entirety of the Atlantic Basin.
01:47But we are going to see a change.
01:49That wind shear is going to lift to the north, but you can see those hostile winds.
01:52You can see, look how fast those clouds are moving across your screen there.
01:55This is the water vapor.
01:56It also gives you an idea about the wind shear as well.
01:59So it's a very hostile environment.
02:00We don't expect anything to develop for the next several days.
02:03But you also notice here in the Caribbean, you don't see a whole lot of orange or red
02:07areas.
02:08That would indicate dry air.
02:09So there's not a whole lot of dry air.
02:11So it's really just the wind shear right now that's holding things back.
02:15And this is why we're so confident.
02:17Once we lose this wind shear, and we think we will lose the wind shear next week, that's
02:23when things really start to organize.
02:25Yeah, most of that wind shear will shift to the north of the Caribbean here.
02:29And so it's going to basically create a pocket.
02:31You're going to have that warm ocean temperatures.
02:33You're going to have plenty of moisture, and you're going to have very low wind shear.
02:36All right.
02:37We talked about this yesterday.
02:38All week we've been talking about scenarios.
02:40The one change we made, Alex, and you and I talked about this yesterday.
02:45Once we push back the development time from late this week to next week, that means there's
02:52no window for this area of development to get into the southwest Atlantic.
02:56Yeah, it looks like a big area of high pressure will develop to the north.
02:59It will push this to the west, we think.
03:02And so then the question becomes, is it strong enough to just push it into Central America?
03:06Or is there a path that can turn it into the eastern Gulf?
03:10And when you look at history of where these storms go in this basin during the month of
03:15November, this is where they can go, either west or towards South Florida.
03:20So we're going to continue to tell South Floridians, keep an eye on this as we get into probably
03:25the latter half of next week.