AccuWeather's Jon Porter warns of another tropical threat developing in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to target Florida, bringing more torrential rain, flooding and storm surge.
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00:00We continue to keep an eye on a growing threat. We're going to keep you updated with the recovery
00:06efforts from Helene, but we're also always looking forward here, John. Now, the National
00:10Hurricane Center has lowered their probability in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche.
00:16Our experts have decided not yet we're going to keep that high risk for development.
00:22Now, AccuWeather experts are the only source to highlight a high risk for development.
00:26Trouble brewing in this same general area that Helene came out of. It's going to be a far
00:32different setup this time around, but we still think that time period between October 7th and
00:3710th, there can be a tropical storm that develops. All right, hot off the presses, John. You know,
00:42we've been so focused on the rain that's coming in Florida. We thought it was important,
00:47even though we are almost, what, about four to five days away from the actual event. We want
00:53to let Floridians know how much rain is going to fall and where are the areas that are going to be
00:59susceptible to flash flooding. That's right. Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists working
01:04together, pouring over all the data. We saw enough here this morning in terms of all of the signs
01:10pointing to a heavy rain and a flash flooding concern, especially from I-4 southbound across
01:17the Florida peninsula here starting Sunday and especially into early next week as well. And look
01:22at some of these totals, eight to 12 inches from Tampa down toward Miami. AccuWeather local storm
01:28max, I mentioned this about an hour ago, of 30 inches. So if there are persistent bands of rain
01:34in the same areas, we're going to end up with a significant flash flooding threat, especially
01:39across south Florida. And the concern we have, John, is messaging. Let's say this doesn't get a
01:45name, similar to what happened in North Carolina, where we had that unnamed subtropical storm.
01:52Nothing was named, but yet we had places, Carolina Beach is one of them, where we had over
02:03nearly 20 inches of rain and the massive amounts of flooding. Right over toward Southport as well,
02:09and it was a very focused area there across the North Carolina coastline. But what was the problem
02:15there? It was a repeated feed of direct tropical moisture. What do we've got next week? A repeated
02:21feed of direct tropical moisture. There's also going to be a lingering front in the area. That's
02:26also going to help create extra uplift and rounds of tropical downpours. That's a problem. All right,
02:31let's talk about this setup. Now, this is far different than Helene. This is not going to be
02:35Helene. We are not saying it is. In fact, we're going to say it's far different. And there's a
02:39couple of reasons for that. Number one, Helene was one area of thunderstorms that we can track
02:45and we can develop. But when you look at the Northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, John,
02:50I mean, do the math and you don't need a calculator for this, but it is a lot of pieces.
02:56That's part of the difference with this one. It's disorganized clusters of showers and
03:00thunderstorms. And we'll see if there can be enough of a consolidation to form a tropical storm.
03:06But even if that doesn't happen, we're still going to have that heavy rain threat across Florida.
03:10Now, on the other story is the Gulf of Mexico is in a far different. Let's put it this way. It
03:15looks far different today than it did look last week. Last week, we had a lot of moisture. We had
03:20low wind shear. It's the complete opposite. The only thing that is similar this week to last week
03:27in the Gulf of Mexico is the warm water. Everything else is different. That's a great point. Look at
03:31all this dry air indicated by the oranges and reds on the scale. There's some dryer in the
03:36mid part of the Gulf of Mexico. Lots of dryer to the north. Some pockets, though, of moisture air.
03:41And that's where those showers and thunderstorms are located. I think you said that right pocket.
03:46There's a little pocket of development. Here's the problem, John. We have the warm water and we
03:53will have enough moisture. It's the wind shear that we've been talking about all week. That's
03:58going to be the limiting factor. And that's tricky to forecast this far out. It is. But I
04:03think what's interesting is we know there's going to be a lot of west to east flow here across the
04:08Gulf of Mexico U.S. coastline. So that's a given. But look at this zone. There's like a little
04:13corridor, almost a highway here in the atmosphere that could set up from the southern Gulf of Mexico
04:18over toward Florida. It points toward Florida. And that's going to be a zone where if something
04:23can develop, it would be right in here. And it may get a little help, too, from the jet stream
04:28coming south. We've seen that with other storms like Francine and also Helene. Let's go over the
04:35scenarios, John. And again, I think it's all about wind shear. There's a strong wind shear.
04:41Scenario one would be the most likely result. Right. And that would be a rather disorganized
04:47system. A hurricane would be very unlikely in that scenario, but still a heavy rain producer.
04:51But a second scenario would be a stronger storm, maybe intensifies into a tropical storm or a
04:57hurricane and then heads toward Florida. We don't think that's likely, but we cannot rule it out.
05:02And either way, a big flash flooding threat across Florida next week.
05:07John, there is a potential that Fort Lauderdale,
05:11Sarasota, someone can get 15 to 20 inches of rain with this. I think that's an important. We're not
05:18saying it's going to happen, but that threat does exist. So you need to be ready for that. The
05:22threat is there early next week. Exactly. Especially where the risks for flash flooding are amplified in
05:28the city environments.