AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Alex DaSilva discuss the potential of tropical development increasing from the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to tropical rainfall in Texas this week.
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00:00Alex, let's take you right out to the infrared satellite here.
00:03The one thing that's really eye-popping now is that growing area of thunderstorms in the
00:09Bay of Campeche.
00:10Yeah, a very impressive area of thunderstorms developing, and since we last talked, it looks
00:15like an area of spin is starting to develop down in the southern Bay of Campeche, that
00:21area of swirling clouds right there.
00:24Right over the ocean it has finally moved over the warm waters out there, but we're
00:28still dealing with a little bit of disorganization.
00:31We have what we call a low-level center underneath that cloud of thunderstorms in the Bay of
00:36Campeche, but the mid-level center is still over land right now.
00:40You need those two to be lined up with one another in order to get tropical development.
00:45So I still think we're about 12 to 24 hours away from when we could first see our named
00:50storm potentially.
00:51The hurricane hunters are going out there very shortly to investigate.
00:55Well, let's take a look at the water vapor loop because, listen, water temperature is
00:59plenty warm enough.
01:00We can make that statement for the rest of the hurricane season.
01:03But what we also look at is moisture and wind shear, sufficient moisture and light winds
01:10aloft.
01:11Yeah, everywhere where you see green on this graphic here is where we have plenty of moisture
01:15to sustain tropical development.
01:17You can see that kind of yellow and orange color backing up, backing away from the Bay
01:22of Campeche right now and ahead of the storm.
01:25So I think the environment ahead of this thing is very favorable.
01:28And the wind shear is also decreasing across this basin as well.
01:32And so I think that we can have development here in the near future.
01:36Yeah, let's take a look at the eye path, Alex.
01:39And again, we have this organizing into a tropical depression, you think, by this time
01:43tomorrow?
01:44Yeah, I think so.
01:45I think it has a really good shot.
01:46Like I said, we still need to get the storm what we call vertically stacked.
01:50You need the low-level center and the mid-level center to be stacked on top of each other.
01:55But I think that can happen here in the next 24 hours.
01:57We might be looking at a depression by this time tomorrow.
02:00And potentially, a couple days from now, we could be dealing with a tropical storm.
02:03All right, let's take a look at a couple of other areas, Alex.
02:06Let's go well out in the, well, first of all, heavy rain is a big story here.
02:11Houston, Corpus Christi, we have 8 to 12 inches.
02:14There'll be some downpours today.
02:16And then we'll bring in the heaviest rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.
02:20Watch yourself also, San Antonio and the Hill Country, possibly some heavy rain.
02:24Let's take you out in the southwest Atlantic, a little swirl here, well to the east of Florida.
02:29Yeah, a little swirl east of Florida.
02:31And again, this is considered homegrown development.
02:34We look close to the United States during the months of June and July.
02:38This is still close enough to be considered homegrown development.
02:41This area is going to swing to the west here over the next couple of days.
02:44And the hurricane hunters might actually be flying out in this thing tomorrow to investigate
02:49whether we have a swirl of thunderstorms.
02:51Either way, through the rest of the week, we'll be tracking this thing as it moves west
02:54towards the United States.
02:57And then potentially towards the end of the week and into next weekend, it could approach
03:01the U.S.
03:02We're also checking in on the Bay of Campeche again for the end of this week, as well as
03:07another area may break off from what we call the Central American Gyre, that big swirl
03:12of thunderstorms over Central America.
03:15We might have another piece of thunderstorms break away from that and move into the Bay
03:19of Campeche at the end of the week.
03:20So a lot to look forward to here over the next week or so, Bernie.
03:24A lot to watch.
03:25Yeah.
03:26Al Acua, the lead hurricane expert.
03:27Alex DaSilva, thanks for joining us.
03:30We'll keep an eye on things.