AccuWeather's Alex DaSilva and Bernie Rayno urges caution as they expect one to three named storms expected to develop from the tropics as we move further into the late stages of hurricane season.
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00:00You and the long-range team came together and we're ready to make this special announcement pertaining to the rest of the hurricane season.
00:07Yeah, we certainly are. And we've been saying it since the very beginning of the hurricane season, even way back before when we made our initial forecast out in March,
00:15that we thought the end of the hurricane season could get quite active. And we still think that right now.
00:20So we think that we could see a late-season surge here as we move into the month of November.
00:25We're still expecting another one to three named storms during the month of November, and we may even see something into December as well.
00:32And you know what? We always like to take it a step farther. Okay, one to three named storms, but then the next part of the equation is, who has to worry about them, Alex?
00:44Yeah, absolutely. That's the million-dollar question. Are these going to affect me? Because if it's one to three out in the middle of the Atlantic, nobody really cares.
00:51But we are concerned that areas, the entire state of Florida, even up into the Carolinas, could be at risk of seeing another tropical impact this season.
00:59And of course, those areas are already very, very vulnerable from multiple hits this season.
01:04Good news is, the western and central Gulf of Mexico areas, we don't think that those areas will be seeing any direct impacts for the rest of the season.
01:12All right, let's just tie this up here with some talking points, Alex, as we go forward.
01:17As we go forward here, again, we are concerned about impacts throughout the month of November. We may even see a storm into December as well.
01:23It doesn't happen very often, but again, those really warm sea surface temperatures are kind of driving this as well.
01:29So we're thinking Florida up into the Carolinas are at risk here over the next month or so, and we're calling for one to three additional named storms throughout the rest of the hurricane season.
01:39And we feel pretty strongly that one to three named storm is coming within the next week, Alex.
01:45Yeah, it certainly could. We push the date back just a little bit. We're thinking the beginning of November, high risk of development.
01:51We've been talking about this for days and days and days, concerned about this area in the central Caribbean here, very warm water temperatures, very low wind shear.
02:01We're expecting development in this area.
02:03And the reason we've been on this since last week is we saw this, the weather pattern, big area of high pressure building across the northeast that sets a front southward.
02:13And then it starts a chain reaction that begins with showers and thunderstorms.
02:18And Alex, right on cue, there they are in the southern Caribbean.
02:22Yeah, I still think we have a couple of days before these will organize.
02:25But like you mentioned, we're starting to already get the early signs of development, some showers and some thunderstorms developing there in the southern Caribbean.
02:33And then as that high builds to the north, it's going to create a very favorable environment, I think, for tropical intensification here.
02:39Wouldn't shock me if we're dealing with a hurricane potentially at one point early next month, early in November here, because, again, look at this environment.
02:47Very, very little wind shear.
02:49And the water temperatures in that area are exceptionally, exceptionally warm.
02:53All right.
02:54We've been working on this graphic all morning.
02:56You and Alex Duff came in to me and said, Bernie, I think we have a problem.
02:59Of course, I don't like anybody changing my graphics.
03:02However, you did convince me.
03:05Let's talk about the first scenario, more of a northern track, Alex.
03:10Yeah, well, this is more favored toward climatology.
03:13You know, this time of the year, we expect storms that develop in this region to either move north or northeast.
03:18So climatology would tell us that this storm probably moves across Hispaniola and Cuba, goes out to sea.
03:23And so but we do have to watch for an impact to potentially Florida here.
03:27We're going to have that big area of high pressure that we talked about.
03:30That might block whatever develops from heading out to sea
03:33and could actually force the storm kind of to move west into Florida.
03:38So that's kind of the concern there with that more northern track.
03:41But even that western track, if the high is stronger initially in early November,
03:46it might just have the storm move straight west into the Yucatan.
03:50But then if there's a weakness, it could allow the storm to turn to the north.
03:53So we're still, you know, seven to ten days out from this.
03:57So a lot of different moving pieces here,
03:59and it's all going to be determined on how strong that high to the north ends up being.