AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warns of a potentially very active Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, with a tropical disturbance possibly brewing in the Caribbean for next week.
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00:00 Months ago we talked about how active this season was going to be Alex, but the other added
00:05 concern we have is that we could be looking at rapid
00:10 intensification of these storms this year. I want you to explain what that means and why we're so concerned about that.
00:17 Rapid intensification is I think a word we're going to be hearing a lot this tropical season. Rapid intensification is when a tropical system strengthens rapidly
00:25 35 miles per hour or more in a 24-hour period. Now there's three ingredients that we typically look for that can give us a clue
00:32 as to if a system is going to undergo rapid intensification. We look for very warm water,
00:37 we look for low wind shear, and we look for plenty of moisture.
00:41 And I think we're going to be having those three ingredients very prevalent this hurricane season.
00:45 And obviously when we're taking a look at this hurricane season we oftentimes compare it with last year. Now last year
00:52 we still had an above average or above historical average number of named storms despite the fact that
00:59 we had an El Nino and a La Nina going on here.
01:05 Let me just go back to my graphics here a second here Alex.
01:08 Let's first talk about the water temperatures and then we'll get to the El Nino and La Nina.
01:13 Yeah, the water temperatures are going to be a main contributor for this year's season.
01:16 Pretty much the entirety of the Atlantic Basin is several degrees above average for this time of year.
01:21 There's some places that are even comparable to where we should be in August right now, and that is a very deep concern.
01:27 Now let's get back to this a second Alex.
01:31 I want to get into the El Nino and La Nina that we've been talking about.
01:37 Let's get to this. This was last year where we actually had an El Nino
01:43 even though we had above normal number of storms.
01:48 Yeah, we saw an above average season last year despite the El Nino conditions. Now during an El Nino
01:53 we typically see more wind shear across the Atlantic Basin which can typically inhibit development.
01:58 However, those really warm ocean temperatures kind of compensated for that additional wind shear
02:03 and we still saw an above average year. This year
02:05 we have those really warm ocean temperatures and we're expected to have less wind shear due to a La Nina.
02:11 So that's why we're really concerned that this season could be even more active than last season.
02:15 Let's get back to the water temperatures here. I mean Alex when you look at the water temperatures now from what I understand
02:21 it's almost more typical of what you would see in August. Is that correct?
02:25 Yeah, absolutely. It sure is and the depth of the water is also very important to talk about here.
02:30 I was just taking a look at the latest maps and in the Caribbean Sea there the 80 degree water temperature
02:36 extends as much as 300 feet below the surface of the ocean. This is essentially going to be rocket fuel
02:42 I think for the tropical season and that's why we're so concerned about rapid intensification.
02:46 And as we mentioned it's going to be a very busy season. Just really quickly go over the numbers Alex.
02:52 Yeah, taking a look at the numbers here again
02:54 we're forecasting 20 to 25 named storms well above the average, 8 to 12 of those expected to be hurricanes, 4 to 7 majors
03:01 that's cat 3 or more and 4 to 6 direct impacts on the United States.