AccuWeather's Joe Lundberg and Bernie Rayno look ahead to next week where they monitor the latest development coming from the tropics as well as the drought conditions lingering in the United States.
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00:00Let's talk about the Gulf of Mexico. You and I, when we were at Penn State together back in the late 80s,
00:07we always looked at the history of storms. We have such a large database of history of tropical storms and hurricanes.
00:15So what we did was we tracked all the storms that moved into the northwest Caribbean during the month of September.
00:22Where did they go? And it gives us some perspective and some ideas about landfall.
00:27It really does. Basically, you look at this area right here, Bernie, this area.
00:32Climatologically, that's the area where something that would come through here would end up going in late September.
00:37In fact, if you filtered out the first half of the month, you'd probably see these percentages lower and this percentage is higher.
00:44That's what we're thinking. Climatologically, anything that comes through here, most likely central and eastern Gulf of Mexico threat.
00:52And again, the exact strength of the storm is up for debate, but certainly we think that it's the area from Florida to Louisiana that will likely be the ending spot.
01:01Let's talk about the pattern next week.
01:03And here's the jet stream, a dip here, a little bit cooler there, but generally dry western half of the country.
01:08You'll get some showers here, some minimal drought relief across the Midwest into the Great Lakes, maybe by Wednesday here and Thursday.
01:15Obviously, tropical development that can bring some moisture into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico late next week.
01:21Stay tuned for development on that.
01:23There's the drop monitor really quickly, Joe. It's eye-popping.
01:26This is amazing. From June, Bernie, look at how dry, how wet it was across the eastern half of the country.
01:33But look at these areas in here. It's still OK, but it's changing. And notice most of the east now has gotten much, much wetter.