IHSG -0,21% ke level 7.618,252 sesi 1 Selasa (29/10). IDX-Industry -0,94% ASII -2,38%, IDX-Finance -0,64% BBNI -2,73% BBRI -1,05% BMRI -0,73%. BBRI dan BMRI melemah jelang rilis kinerja Q3 2024 Rabu ini. Sementara saham JPFA melaju kencang ditengah setoran dividen interim dan laba naik 124% YOY di Q3 2024.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout the day,
00:12where the share price is experiencing quite a deep pressure and technically has left the 7600 level.
00:19And we remind you again that you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive on 08.12.8788.723
00:27as shown on your TV screen.
00:29And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Octavianus Audi,
00:33who is the Head of Customer Literation and Education PT Kiwum Sekuritas Indonesia.
00:39We will go straight to him.
00:40Mr. Audi, good afternoon. How are you, sir?
00:43Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.
00:45Yes, thank you, Mr. Audi, for spending your time on IDA Channel.
00:49Let's go straight to the share price index, sir.
00:52It's fluctuating, but it's more tense.
00:54Even intraday, a few minutes after the end of the second session, it's already moving to the level of 7500.
01:02Your analysis, the weakness that continues throughout the second trading session?
01:09Yes, so if we look at the trend, ESG is still in the bearish phase in the short term.
01:16But what we have to bear in mind is that the decrease in the last few days
01:22is a tendency from the volume of transactions to continue to decline.
01:25So this is one of the concerns of the investors.
01:29So we also see a few things that create sentiment in the market right now.
01:34The first is definitely related to the release of work.
01:37So the market is still waiting, especially for the big caps.
01:42For the banks, it is also very influential.
01:44In addition, there is also a little sentiment related to the Sytex case.
01:48But for the big caps, we also see that the NPL for banks,
01:54especially the one that was highlighted earlier is the BBCA with the largest share purchase,
01:58is still relatively safe, 2.1% in September.
02:02But for ESG itself, for now, we still see a tendency.
02:06The correction to the current support level is at 7,566.
02:12So this has begun to be limited with resistance.
02:16We estimate that if there is a technical rebound,
02:19then at least up to the level of back to 7,700, it is still very open.
02:31Yes, so for now, the correction has begun to be limited.
02:34So maybe this investor has begun to take advantage of the momentum for buy-on weakness.
02:39Moreover, if it is confirmed, ESG is still hanging at the support level earlier at 7,566.
02:45So this will actually be quite a positive sentiment.
02:48So for now, we can pay attention to the support level first.
02:51We still expect there will be a little additional correction,
02:54but it has begun to be more limited until the end of this week.
02:57Okay, let's move on to Mr. Audi's sector.
03:00We will try to review from the big cap banking side.
03:03Today, the average is experiencing a fairly deep weakness.
03:06There is BBNI, today the correction is even above 4%.
03:11Then BMRI and BBRI, tomorrow Rabu, this will only release their performance.
03:16BBRI, if I'm not mistaken, in the morning at 8.30, while BMRI in the afternoon.
03:21How do you see the movement pattern of this big cap banking?
03:26Have investors priced in first?
03:32Or will the energy sector experience a jump?
03:35Yes, we think the market has begun to anticipate,
03:39especially with several emitters,
03:41especially those who are more focused on small or even micro.
03:48Because if we look at the sentiment related to the allocation of flower tribes by central banks,
03:53it turns out that it has begun to be reflected in the market and in the real sector.
03:59Especially for BBNI, if we look at the energy release,
04:04with a single-digit growth rate compared to BBCA,
04:08it turns out that investors responded quite negatively,
04:11with a much deeper correction.
04:14And we also anticipate that this can also happen for BBRI.
04:18With foreign sales, so far, this is the biggest.
04:25More than Rp20 trillion still continues to sell to BBRI.
04:29So this will be quite a negative signal in the market,
04:33as well as the anticipation of the energy release.
04:35So this development is still being dominated by sentiment related to the third quarter energy release in 2024.
04:43Okay, I want to go to BBNI first.
04:45Mr. Audi, let's start from the technical side.
04:48And coincidentally, there are also questions coming in.
04:50Mr. Victor from Malang, thank you for joining us.
04:53Asking BBNI, the stock price has risen, but the stock price is down.
04:56What is the cause?
04:58Then also from the recommendation side.
05:00Maybe from the cause, you have mentioned it earlier.
05:02What is the recommendation, with a BBNI pressure above 4%?
05:055275, the current position level.
05:09Yes, BBNI we see is quite interesting actually.
05:11Here there is a fairly strong demand area,
05:14it is at 5,150 to 5,250.
05:19So this is an area of support that has been formed since early October.
05:24So if it succeeds in tanking or at least there can be a potential pullback or rebound,
05:30it can actually be kept first.
05:33But it will be a negative signal for the market,
05:36especially for friends or investors who only use it for trading in BBNI.
05:41The bad signal is if it goes below level 5,000,
05:44it will be a continuous bearish signal.
05:47But if there is a rebound potential at 5,150, 5,250,
05:51then the nearest resistance is at least it can go back to 5,500, which is still open.
05:57Moving to BBRI, sir.
05:59Just tomorrow, it looks like they will release their energy.
06:02It is already at level 4,700.
06:06It looks like the closing line is the lowest intraday level throughout today's trade.
06:12Yes, BBRI, it looks like the market has started to reflect
06:17on the potential risk of energy,
06:20which is said to be only single digit.
06:24And if we look at the trend,
06:26it has started to approach the selling area,
06:29or oversold technically.
06:32But the buyback area or the demand area,
06:35we see that there is still enough space.
06:38It is at level 4,550 to 4,600.
06:42So with the current price at 4,700,
06:45the tendency or possibility or probability that it will correct is still open.
06:50So this is for buy-on weakness,
06:52the level can be observed earlier.
06:54And if there is a rebound,
06:55then for resistance, we see,
06:57for now it can go back to level 4,830,
07:01this is already very good.
07:03Okay, in the forecast, this is already a correction of 4.08%.
07:06Moving to BMRI, Mr. Audi,
07:09from the agenda,
07:11tomorrow will also release their forecast.
07:14Today also experienced quite a deep pressure,
07:17even though in the last minutes of the closing,
07:20the power is more to the limit,
07:22and finally closed flat at 6,825.
07:25What signals can we conclude
07:28about the direction reversal for BMRI,
07:30but not rushing back to the green zone, sir?
07:32Because the market in the second position is rushing to close, it seems.
07:36Yes, so this is indeed a little different.
07:39So for now, our topic is
07:41BBSA and Mandiri,
07:43which are more segmented in the institutions or in the stock market.
07:49And if we look at the trend,
07:51technically, there is a signal here that is very good potential.
07:55We see there is support at MA200,
07:57and it turns out it rebounded today,
07:59just once the low touched,
08:01and finally approaching the closing,
08:03it can pull back again.
08:05So this is a pretty positive signal.
08:07While waiting for the energy release,
08:09we expect it will be in line with the target,
08:12not far below expectations.
08:15So maybe the market can take advantage
08:17or this momentum can be used
08:19for the short term.
08:21The target is currently at the level of 7,100 to be the resistance.
08:26Okay, in the middle of the achievement
08:28of the pick-up bank so far,
08:30is there any change in the target until the end of the year?
08:35Yes, for IASG itself,
08:37we still haven't made significant changes.
08:41For the closing target until the end of the year,
08:43the range is indeed at 7,700 to 7,800.
08:47That is the moderate range,
08:49if it is in line with expectations
08:51and also in line with some of the targets that we have dropped.
08:55Okay, I mean, sir, for each pick-up bank target,
08:59is there any gap with the weakness that happened quite deep
09:02in the last few times?
09:04Yes, okay, sorry.
09:05For that, we are still in line.
09:07There is indeed a slight correction in some of the targets,
09:10especially like BBNI,
09:12but we are still quite optimistic
09:14with the existence of a monetary policy extension.
09:16So this is at least starting next year,
09:18there may be a return from Kinerja,
09:21especially for Mikro.
09:23Okay, good.
09:24From the SriTech side,
09:25there will be no significant impact.
09:27Will the impact be less?
09:30Yes, actually if we look at the bank loan,
09:33and this has been quite a long time
09:35related to loans made by SriTech
09:37to several large banks,
09:40both BUMN and private.
09:42But if we look at it,
09:44with this current position,
09:46with the ratio of non-performing loans
09:48that are still in the target,
09:50especially BPCA, as I said earlier,
09:53per September is still at 2.1%,
09:55so this does not have a significant impact.
09:58Because it has been preserved,
10:00and it has been too long,
10:02but the sentiment from the market is quite negative.
10:05But for Kinerja,
10:07we think it is still quite strong for now,
10:11with the current market conditions.
10:15Okay, this special notation stock,
10:19where is it located?
10:21It does not move anywhere,
10:24Okay, let's try to move to other stocks
10:27that are quite interesting
10:29and also quite attracting attention
10:31throughout today's trading.
10:33There is Java from Paltry,
10:35which is quite fast.
10:37Today is October 29th,
10:39it is a store run in Vindian Interim,
10:41Tambukul 2024,
10:43and Kinerja also jumped above 100%
10:45for the long position in the third quarter of 2024.
10:47With the achievement of Java
10:49throughout today's trading,
10:51what is the next direction
10:53and also recommendations for Java?
10:55Yes, Java for now,
10:57actually if we look at it
10:59in an indicator way,
11:01we see there is a correlation
11:03from the decline of the stock,
11:05which is corn,
11:07which indeed if we look at the trend
11:09from 2023 until now,
11:11the trend continues to decline
11:13and this is a very positive sentiment.
11:15And indeed the market has priced in,
11:17I think, with a significant increase in price.
11:19But for now, Java,
11:21we still see there is a potential
11:23with the closest target at 1.990.
11:25Okay.
11:27Today's closing is 18.30,
11:29intraday at 18.45.
11:31Is it still recommended to buy?
11:33Yes, it is still recommended
11:35to buy at least at least for a short period
11:37up to 19.90.
11:39Okay.
11:41For Java, today's price increased
11:43at 9.91%, intraday increased
11:45above 10%.
11:47The investment decision is still in the hands
11:49of the investors of IDX Channel.