IHSG -1,10% ke level 7.610,189 sesi I Senin (28/10) dan sempat melemah ke 7.559. IDX-Infra -1,35% BREN -6,53% jelang rilis kinerja Q3 2024, IDX-Finance -1,24% BMRI -3,19% jelang rilis kinerja Q3 2024. IDX-Technology -1,07% GOTO -1,43% . Sementara saham SMRA +3,23% dan ADMR +3,21% pasca masuk kedalam indeks LQ45.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us and in this segment we will review how the trade is going all day today where the Samkabungan family is experiencing quite a deep correction and right now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Joshua Marcius as a Technical Analyst at Philips Securities Indonesia.
00:22We will go straight to Mr. Joshua. Good evening, how are you?
00:25Good evening, sir.
00:27Thank you, Mr. Joshua, for taking the time to be with us on IDX Channel. In the beginning of the week, Mr. Joshua, the Samkabungan family was experiencing quite a deep correction of more than 1%, sir.
00:39And earlier, intraday, it left a level of 7,600, although the range was quite narrow, the lowest was at 7,599.
00:48Your analysis, especially from the technical side, what are the weaknesses that occurred during today's trade?
00:54As for the weaknesses, our prediction today is coincidentally the same as Mr. Haris.
00:58From 7,800 to 24 September, it was indeed a correction and a swing high, and this is normal, still in a long-term trend.
01:09There is still a possibility of a correction to 7,500 to 7,550. After that, there may be a potential rebound.
01:15Okay, in the short term, at least for the next few weeks, what are the movements of the Samkabungan family?
01:23If you look at it, it still seems to be able to reach the level of 7,800 again.
01:27Okay, Mr. Joshua, from the sentiment side, it seems that from a global perspective, investors are still looking forward to the decision of the previous Samkabungan.
01:39Then the PCE inflation in the middle of the day is heating up again.
01:44But from within the country, the financial performance report in 2024, especially in the third quarter, is still rolling.
01:50And until now, it has not been able to reverse the Samkabungan index.
01:55Your analysis?
01:57If we look at it, actually, although some are good, like the BCA and BNI, which exceeded expectations from their own earnings.
02:05While this may be more directed at people who are now waiting for the results of the U.S. election, which will be held in 10 days.
02:14That may be the reason why it is still WNC.
02:17And then there are some who, because we see the escalation in the Middle East, may run to gold.
02:22And if we look at it, gold continues to rise above 2,700 per troy ounce.
02:27This is what we have not seen yet for now.
02:30But this is a normal correction for the HSG itself.
02:33Still in a very long bullish trend.
02:35Okay, Samsung Banking Big Cap today became a burden.
02:39Especially some stocks that have not released and have just released.
02:44Today, BMRI experienced a correction of more than 3%.
02:47BBNI today also experienced a weakness of more than 3%.
02:52And coincidentally, Mr. Joshua, in our interactive WhatsApp, there are three questions asking Samsung Banking Big Cap.
02:58I will try to read one by one.
03:01I will try to check the first one.
03:04Mr. Victor from Malang.
03:06Good afternoon.
03:07Today, which bank's recommendation has already entered the Big Bank?
03:12With the weakness that occurred.
03:14Next, asking Big Cap Banking too.
03:17I will try to check this.
03:19Good afternoon.
03:20Can the BBCA return to 11,000 at the beginning of November?
03:24Then asking Samsung Banking Big Cap.
03:27Not mentioning the name and location.
03:29Also asking, in the middle of yesterday's Big Cap, which one is more likely to enter?
03:34From a technical point of view.
03:36What is your analysis, Mr. Joshua?
03:38If I look at it, the trend is still quite good at the BCA.
03:43And coincidentally, the earning growth is still double-digit compared to the previous period.
03:47If this period is compared to the previous period.
03:49And if the technical is clear, it is still in the bullish trend.
03:51Then if you look at it from three times holding the other trend, and then bounce.
03:56The potential can still be up to 10,950 or close to 11,000 earlier.
04:00For the BCA itself, as long as it remains in support of 10,150.
04:04Okay. Can you repeat again, sir?
04:06What is the entry level of today's closing at 10,600?
04:09For the 10,600 or 10,550 area is also quite okay.
04:13Around the range of 50 pera right?
04:15With a fairly strong endurance from a fundamental and technical point of view.
04:18If compared to the position of other Big Cap banks.
04:22Where does the BBCA head to at the end of the year, Mr. Joshua?
04:26To touch 11,000 above, it can still be.
04:29Only 11,000, not up to 12,000 technical.
04:32The possibility is still there.
04:34Okay. Today's closing BBCA at 10,600.
04:37Weakening at 1.40%.
04:40From BBCA, I want to go to BMRI, sir.
04:44This has not yet released their energy.
04:46Is there a connection, sir?
04:48This is also an expectation.
04:49BMRI energy in the third quarter of 2024.
04:53Does it meet expectations, maybe?
04:55Or what do you see as the weakness that happened today?
04:59Technically, there is actually a small rising price.
05:02That's why there is a correction.
05:04A normal correction too.
05:05If we talk about the expectations of the financial activity release,
05:07it is clear that there is an impact.
05:08But maybe there is a statement related to the repayment of debts.
05:12It also has an impact on what happened in the banks.
05:16A few corrections.
05:17That may stop it.
05:18Until there is a further explanation related to that.
05:21If you look at BMRI, the potential is more tendentious.
05:23If the correction is close to 6,550.
05:26But in terms of trend, it is still in a very long bullish trend.
05:29Okay. What level of entry is recommended?
05:31And the target until the end of the year?
05:33If you look at the reaction first,
05:35if it's between 6,550,
05:37there will be a kind of bullish hammer.
05:41Or there is an inside bar candle that is quite okay.
05:43With a large body candlestick.
05:44That's interesting.
05:45But now it's still wide NC first.
05:47Okay. 6,825.
05:49Weakened at 3,19%.
05:51It is more recommended to be wide NC first.
05:54For BBRI, Mr. Nikolas today.
05:57Mr. Nikolas.
05:58Mr. Joshua, I'm sorry.
06:00Today, it also experienced a correction again.
06:03Although in the last minute,
06:06there was a reverse direction for BBRI, sir.
06:094,760 is also waiting for the Kinerja release for BBRI.
06:13Meanwhile, weekly,
06:15it has experienced a fairly deep correction at 4,61%.
06:18Mr. Joshua.
06:19If we talk about BRI,
06:21to be honest, the trend is different.
06:23In terms of long-term trends,
06:25if you look at daily, the trend tends to be balanced
06:27compared to the other three major banks.
06:29Like BRI, like BNI, BMRI, and BCA.
06:33If this is more tendentious,
06:35the weakening trend can still continue.
06:37It has also formed a rising wedge.
06:39Moving below EMA200,
06:40it may still weaken to 4,570.
06:42Resistant at 5,325.
06:44But it looks like it will still move below there.
06:46Okay.
06:47The entry is waiting at 4,500, sir?
06:51I'm more waiting for a change in the trend.
06:53Because the trend is very different
06:55compared to the other ones.
06:56How much resistance can be observed
06:59when BBRI changes in the position of the trend
07:02as you said earlier?
07:04Maybe if it has a pattern later,
07:07whether it's a pattern or a downward trend,
07:09it goes through 5,325,
07:11maybe towards 5,500 and up.
07:13It's interesting from a technical point of view.
07:15If you evaluate it, it's a different story.
07:17Okay.
07:18We've moved to BNI for a moment.
07:21Mr. Joshua.
07:22BNI is also experiencing quite a deep correction today.
07:25You said that from the work side,
07:27it actually meets expectations.
07:29But today, the correction is quite deep, sir.
07:31Intraday was above 3%, Mr. Joshua.
07:34Yes, for BNI,
07:35even if I checked earlier in the data,
07:38it even exceeded expectations
07:39compared to its growth.
07:41For BISA and BNI that have come out.
07:43And the correction is actually quite normal.
07:465,350 and 5,750 resistance.
07:49Then there is a correction in the form of swing high.
07:51There is also a dead cross, stochastic.
07:53Maybe this is still temporary.
07:54The bullish trend will still continue.
07:56If it moves above 5,350,
07:58maybe it can still be strong.
08:00Maybe to 5,750 again.
08:02Okay, from the BKP bank, Mr. Joshua,
08:04we switch to another BKP stock
08:06which today became a heavyweight.
08:08There is a brand, sir, from the Rayogopangestu group.
08:10Today, it weakened to 6.53%
08:12and closed at level 6,800.
08:15Your analysis is in the middle of a breakthrough in the brand
08:18which is getting further away from the level of 7,000.
08:20Mr. Joshua.
08:21If we talk about the brand,
08:23since the sentiment puts
08:25and the trend has also changed,
08:27the trend line,
08:29the trend line bullish has been penetrated.
08:31Then after the retest,
08:32then there is a swing high formed,
08:34the resistance,
08:35then the runaway gap is also formed.
08:37This tends to the sentiment not going down, sir.
08:39So maybe it can still go down to 4,310
08:41while moving below the resistance of 9,025,
08:44if we look at it.
08:45Yes, what is the expected performance
08:47when the PTRO has been released
08:49and the performance position also tends to decline?
08:54It seems more or less the same, sir.
08:56If we look at it from the evaluation point of view,
08:58it's also quite far away.
09:00Maybe it's more towards the technical and fundamental effect.
09:02Apparently it will be in line,
09:04tend to weaken.
09:05Okay, before we update
09:07the position of the closing of trade
09:09in the second session today, Mr. Joshua,
09:11I switch to another sentiment
09:13and coincidentally also make our topic of choice today,
09:16stocks that are in the LQ45,
09:18there is SMRA,
09:20then there is also Romeneral.
09:21And coincidentally, technically,
09:23the stock today is also moving quite fast.
09:25How big do you see the impact of this index refresh?
09:30Although now,
09:31the refresh system is more often done
09:33compared to previous years.
09:36If you look at it, it's pretty good.
09:38If you look at the SMRA itself,
09:40it is formed in a technical way,
09:42supported by bullish divergence
09:43and also movement above the MS90,
09:45showing a potential for strengthening
09:47usually from the current trend.
09:50Possibly moving up to 685
09:52and moving above the 620 support
09:54for the SMRA itself.
09:55The ADMR is also seen as such,
09:57which was mentioned earlier that the closing is almost green.
10:00So we can see that this also forms a good swing low,
10:04maintaining above the MS90 support,
10:06possibly still fit to 1.5 or 5.
10:08Is it still recommended to enter, sir,
10:10for Adaro Mineral and also SMRA?
10:13Technically, it's still quite okay.
10:15If you want to enter, maybe go back to Mr. Ibu again.
10:17Okay. Analysis for the stocks
10:19that are confirmed to enter the LQ45 index
10:21which took place on November 1,
10:24in the month of Bemirsa.
10:26Bemirsa is still in IDX closing
10:28and we are still using it to be able to participate
10:30in the interactive WhatsApp at 08.12.8788.723
10:35as shown on your television screen later.
10:37Let's just take a look at the four options
10:40that are recommended,
10:42especially in the middle of the domestic market,
10:44the SMRA index throughout the period today.
10:46The first option comes from the Bemirsa map
10:49recommended by MAPA
10:51with support that can be observed at 885,
10:55resistance up to 975.
10:58Next, there is MIDI also recommended
11:00at 438 to 482 resistance.
11:03Then there is also ARNA
11:05also recommended at 725 to 825.
11:09And finally, there is Adaro Mineral.
11:11We actually reviewed it earlier.
11:13It is still recommended at 1390
11:15up to resistance at 1515.
11:18The four options recommended
11:20and again, the investment decision
11:22is still in the hands of Bemirsa IDX Channel.
11:25Mr. Joshua, let's continue again, sir.
11:27Let's just go straight to the first option, Mr. Joshua.
11:31There is a MAPA stock.
11:33Analysis and recommendations and also considerations.
11:36MAPA is included in one of your options.
11:40MAPA is one of the ones in the middle of the ISP
11:42is still moving in the bullish trend.
11:44Then there is an inverted high-end shoulder pattern.
11:47Then there is also a golden cross on the stochastic.
11:49It usually indicates the potential for strengthening.
11:51It can continue its potential to 975
11:54while moving above the support of 875 rupiah.
11:58Okay, today's closing at 925
12:01strengthens at 2.21%.
12:04MAPA in the retail field, right?
12:07Yes, in the retail field, that's right.
12:09In the last few options, MAPA, then MPPA
12:12and there is also Aces.
12:14The strength is also quite significant, Mr. Joshua.
12:18From a fundamental point of view,
12:20what are the prospects in this matter?
12:22Maybe you know, usually the retail is in Q4.
12:26In Q4, the earnings are quite strong.
12:28Moreover, there is a holiday season
12:30and usually there are many discounts at the end of the year.
12:33That may also drive the industry
12:36related to this, such as MAPA, MAPI, etc.
12:39Okay, MAPA at 925 strengthens at 2.21%.
12:42Recommended by support earlier at 885.
12:46Resistance up to 975.
12:48We switch to the second option.
12:51There is Midi, sir.
12:52You also recommend it well.
12:54Analysis for Midi.
12:56For Midi, it hasn't been long since it broke out the base pattern.
12:59Then today there was a retest too.
13:02And moving above the Rp 530, the trend is still good.
13:05There is also a breakout pattern.
13:07So that the potential can strengthen to Rp 482.
13:09While moving above Rp 438.
13:13Opportunity for Midi.
13:14Back to the Rp 500 again.
13:17If the Rp 500 is back, if it has passed Rp 482,
13:20it can happen.
13:21But for now, Rp 482 is the most dangerous.
13:23Okay, the closest resistance is Rp 482.
13:27Today's closing at Rp 470.
13:29Strengthens at 1.29%.
13:32We switch to the third option.
13:34There is Arna.
13:36Also recommended by.
13:38I repeat again, the support is at 725.
13:41Resistance up to 825.
13:44While in the trading closing,
13:46in the second session today,
13:48Arna was stressed at 1.28%.
13:51In the first session, it jumped up to Rp 800 per share.
13:55Analysis for Arna.
13:58For Arna, it's not a break out.
14:01But the trend has been long since it broke out.
14:03The breakout is also impulsive.
14:05It can be seen in the weekly trend.
14:07During the long consolidation, it broke out.
14:09That's why this is one of the considerations.
14:11There is a potential to strengthen to Rp 825.
14:13While moving above the support, Rp 725.
14:16What is the movement pattern for Arna?
14:19After previously moving at Rp 500 at the end of June.
14:23However, in the last three months,
14:25it has returned to above the Rp 700 level for Arna.
14:29If you look at it, it used to have a long consolidation.
14:32Around Rp 500, back to Rp 600.
14:34Then around there.
14:36After that, it formed a rather long pattern.
14:38It turns out that the weekly inverter is visible.
14:40That's why it's interesting.
14:42There is a potential, usually bullish reversal.
14:44There is a potential to strengthen to Rp 825.
14:46Okay, intraday today was up to Rp 800.
14:49Closure at Rp 770.
14:51Weakened at 1.28%.
14:53Where was the entry level, sir?
14:55Can you repeat it for Arna?
14:56Around Rp 770.
14:58Okay, the level of closure in today's trade.
15:00We turn to the last option, Adaro Mineral.
15:03We actually reviewed it earlier.
15:05And coincidentally, someone has asked, sir.
15:08For Adaro Mineral, Mr. Inder from Bali.
15:10Thank you for joining.
15:12Do you understand Adaro Mineral?
15:14Is it still recommended or not?
15:16Support and resistance.
15:17What is the entry level?
15:19If you look at this ADMR,
15:21it hasn't formed a swing low for a long time.
15:23The support has just formed quite well.
15:25Around Rp 1,390.
15:27The potential to strengthen can still be continued to Rp 1,515.
15:30Remembering the trend again,
15:32it looks like it's going to be bullish again.
15:34Then it moves above Rp 1,100.
15:38Opportunity to Rp 1,500, Mr. Joshua, for Adaro Mineral.
15:41Yes, correct, to Rp 1,505.
15:43That's the closest resistance.
15:46When this level is successfully penetrated,
15:48where will the direction go for Adaro Mineral?
15:50If you look at Adaro itself,
15:53actually, I just said Rp 1,515.
15:56But if it can pass from there,
15:58the direction of Rp 1,550 can still be achieved again.
16:01Okay, today's closing at Rp 1,460.
16:04Strengthened significantly at 4.29%.
16:07The lowest level at Rp 1,415.
16:10Just now, from the fundamental side,
16:12they entered the LQ45 index.
16:15There are many options recommended by the investors.
16:18And again, the decision to invest
16:20is still in the hands of the investors of IDX Channel.
16:23There are MAPA, MIDI, ARNA, and also Adaro Mineral.
16:26Okay, Mr. Joshua, there are still a few more questions.
16:30I will try to check the next question.
16:34Asking about Sido stock,
16:36is there a chance for entry at Rp 570?
16:39The question comes from...
16:41I will try to check.
16:42Malvin Sihite from Depok, West Java.
16:44For Sido, Mr. Joshua.
16:47For Sido, I haven't seen it yet.
16:50And soon there will also be a dividend.
16:52And the trend is still smooth.
16:53Usually, if there is a dividend,
16:55the trend is still smooth.
16:57It can still continue to weaken to Rp 600.
16:59For the closest, these two picks.
17:01For movements, it is more likely to still be pressed.
17:03It can even be lower than Rp 600 for Sido.
17:06I haven't seen a chance yet.
17:08Okay.
17:10If you still want to enter, sir.
17:12At what level?
17:13Apart from Rp 570 for Sido.
17:15A chance for a decline, maybe?
17:17If we talk about wanting to enter,
17:20I'm more waiting for him to go through the Rp 695 area,
17:23heading back to Rp 700.
17:24That's interesting.
17:25But now I'm still waiting for that to happen.
17:27Because if he gets there,
17:28he tends to have a bullish trend.
17:30Okay.
17:31It means it is more recommended to buy on breakout.
17:34For Sido.
17:35Right, buy on breakout.
17:36At what level?
17:37Around Rp 695 to Rp 700.
17:39Okay.
17:40Rp 695 and Rp 700.
17:42And it is not recommended to buy at Rp 570.
17:45I'm sorry, Depok.
17:47And again, the decision to invest
17:49is still in the hands of the viewers of IDX Channel.
17:51Mr. Joshua, we still have one more segment.
17:53There are still a few more questions.
17:54We will continue later.
17:55And viewers, we will be right back.
17:58We have reached the last segment.
17:59And thank you also to those who are still joining us.
18:02Mr. Joshua, when we are out of time,
18:04I will read a question from Mr. Kasmuddin
18:06from Medan, North Sumatra.
18:08He asks, Mr. BBTN,
18:09what is the level of support and resistance
18:11to buy for BBTN?
18:14For BBTN, we can see the interest.
18:18If he sees the pattern,
18:20it often moves near the MA100.
18:22So, near the area of Rp 1,400 to Rp 1,390,
18:25it just pulls back.
18:26We can wait around that area.
18:28Yes, maybe it can still be corrected.
18:29Hello, Mr. Joshua.
18:30His voice is gone, sir.
18:32His voice is gone, sorry.
18:35Yes, his voice is gone.
18:37Maybe it's a signal.
18:38What was the level, sir?
18:40Can it be repeated?
18:41Okay, if we talk about BBTN,
18:43BBTN still has potential
18:45when it has reached Rp 1,400.
18:47Because it often repeats its pattern
18:49near the MA100.
18:50Near that area,
18:51it will probably pull back.
18:53Okay.
18:54Today's position at Rp 1,450
18:56is 1.36% weaker.
18:58Mr. Kasmuddin from Medan.
19:01Moving on to the next question, sir.
19:03I will try to read it.
19:05This time for PSAB.
19:09I will try to check this question again.
19:11From Mr. Samekto.
19:14From East Java, it seems.
19:15Asking PSAB, sir, the support and resistance.
19:18How much is the entry?
19:19Based on the volatility that occurred.
19:22For PSAB,
19:23at today's closing price,
19:24it is also quite interesting in terms of technical.
19:26It really follows the same pattern.
19:28Around the Rp 230 area.
19:31And in terms of trend, it's still bullish.
19:33It really seems to be in line with the gold price movement
19:36which is often forming an all-time high.
19:38It is likely to still be able to strengthen to the Rp 360 area
19:40in a resistant way.
19:41The support is Rp 302.
19:43Okay.
19:44Next, without mentioning the name and location,
19:46asking the PANI stock.
19:47In the middle of the existing volatility,
19:49is there a chance to return to the Rp 15,000 level?
19:54No, sir, for PANI.
19:55To the Rp 15,000 level,
19:57there is still such a potential.
19:59If we look at the technical, it's still quite okay.
20:02Even though the anti-correction
20:03still seems to last around the Rp 12,000 level.
20:06The potential in terms of bullish trend
20:07can still be strengthened to the Rp 15,000 area again.
20:10It's not that far from the current price.
20:13Okay, today's closing is still at Rp 14,800.
20:16Intraday today was able to reach Rp 15,300.
20:20For PANI.
20:21We move on to the next question.
20:23Without mentioning the name and location,
20:25for Unilever, sir,
20:26has it been recommended to buy?
20:29Or is the risk profile quite high?
20:31In the middle of deep pressure,
20:33in the last few times.
20:35If we look at it technically,
20:37and for people who follow the trend method,
20:40the risk can be said to be quite high.
20:42Considering that the energy is also down,
20:45followed by technical confirmation.
20:47We can see that it tends to move.
20:49It may still be able to weaken further.
20:51Moreover, the runaway gap continues to form.
20:53It can weaken to Rp 1,885
20:55for potential while moving below the resistance of Rp 2,440.
20:58Okay, the last one is Abila.
21:00It just entered the WhatsApp interactive.
21:02Asking about the MNCN stock.
21:05Mr. Joshua has taken a position at Rp 331, sir.
21:09Can it still be held?
21:12If we talk about whether it can still be held or not,
21:14let's talk about the technical trend first.
21:16The technical trend,
21:17this MA200 and the bearish trend are really neat.
21:19Moving below Rp 378.
21:21And finally, there is also a swing high.
21:23This means that the new holding area at Rp 346
21:25is lower than the old Rp 378.
21:27The potential is more likely to weaken.
21:29More likely to weaken to Rp 308.
21:31Or even if we talk about the strong support,
21:33it can still be up to Rp 290.
21:35Will it return to its trading buy level?
21:37I don't think so for now.
21:39Stop loss, maybe, sir?
21:41With a position at Rp 331?
21:44For the risk limit level,
21:45which can be considered around Rp 306.
21:47Because if it goes through there,
21:48it can continue to increase to Rp 290.
21:50Okay.
21:51Abillah asked about MNCN shares.
21:54And again, the investment decision
21:56is still in the hands of the ADH Channel viewers.
21:59Our time is quite limited, Mr. Joshua.
22:01It seems that the discussion at the same time
22:03ended our broadcast for this time.
22:05Thank you, Mr. Joshua.
22:06Always healthy, sir.
22:08Yes, always healthy too, sir.
22:09Thank you for the opportunity.
22:10Okay, Mr. Joshua Marcius,
22:11Technical Analyst, Indonesia's Security Select Committee.
22:13And thank you also for those who have participated
22:15in our interactive WhatsApp.
22:16And please join us again
22:18at the same time and on the same program
22:20in the next trading day.
22:22And viewers, don't forget to watch the Market Review program
22:24which will air at 6.00 p.m.
22:26WEST INDIAN TIME.
22:27Because the matter of the future must be ahead.
22:29I am Investor Saham.
22:31I am David Sandoval.
22:32Excuse me.
22:33See you again.