"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Rabu (20/11/2024) dengan Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan."
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00:00What is the status of the stock market in Indonesia?
00:05Next, we will look at the economic agenda, especially from the United States.
00:08There is data on raw oil stocks.
00:11Weekly.
00:12Then from England, the consumer price index.
00:14Then from Germany, there is the producer price index.
00:17And from China, there is the main flower tribe, credit BBOC.
00:20And from Japan, there is the trading rate.
00:22And from Taiwan, the rate of payment in Indonesia.
00:27There is data on the decision of the flower tribe that will be announced by the Bank of Indonesia today.
00:33And the agenda that is interesting for us to discuss.
00:36There is SOTS, which holds the RUPS.
00:38Then DNAR, RUPS.
00:41RELI, RUPS.
00:43AMOR, cash dividend payment.
00:45Then SIDO, cash dividend payment.
00:47And TAPG, cash dividend payment.
00:50And SMAR, cash dividend payment.
00:53FWCT, cash dividend payment.
00:56And IFI, cash dividend payment.
00:59Meanwhile, BBCA and BRAM, cash dividend payment.
01:06Next, we will update the findings from the main Asian exchanges this morning.
01:10The main Asian exchanges.
01:12Compaq was opened.
01:15I mean, we opened it in variation this morning.
01:19Nikkei 225 was opened weak.
01:210.21% level 38,333.
01:25Then STI Singapore was weakened 0.01% level 3,757.
01:30Cosmic Korea was strengthened 0.31% level 2,479.
01:34Hang Seng Hong Kong was opened strengthened 0.09% level 19,681.
01:39And for this morning's discussion at MarketBus,
01:53it has been connected through video conference.
01:55There is Mr. Abdul Haq Alfaruki, analyst at talknow.id.
01:59Good morning, Mr. Abdul.
02:01Good morning, Mr. Wiki.
02:03Good morning. Thank you for joining us at MarketBus.
02:05I hope you are always healthy, Mr. Abdul.
02:08Okay, Mr. Abdul.
02:09Talking about the movement of global business,
02:12especially from the US,
02:14which brought the closure of the US,
02:17mostly strengthened by technology-based companies,
02:21as well as domestically.
02:24Although it did strengthen,
02:27but failed to survive at the level of 7,200.
02:31How do you see the technology sector?
02:33And what is actually the catalyst?
02:35And why is the movement of the technology sector
02:37interesting in the last trade, Mr. Abdul?
02:41Okay, good.
02:43As an investor, if we refer to the last trade,
02:47and in the last few months,
02:49related to the macroeconomic movement,
02:52in the last few months,
02:55there have been a lot of macroeconomic events,
02:57especially in the monetary policy in the US.
03:02We focus on the last trade
03:04where the technology sector strengthened by 5.2%,
03:07which was led by Gotoh and DCI.
03:11Now, there is also a catalyst,
03:13or the main cause,
03:14of course, if we talk about the technology sector,
03:17we will definitely associate it with the closure of the flower family.
03:22Now, here we see that
03:24the US has closed the flower family
03:26as large as 75 basis points in 2024,
03:30from 5.5% to 4.75%.
03:34That is actually a fresh wind
03:36for the technology sector in the US.
03:39But we will refer to the technology sector in Indonesia
03:42where the liability is still quite high,
03:46from the liability in terms of bank debt,
03:49which is definitely flowering,
03:51and of course, this will also refer to the flower family benchmark.
03:55We see that the flower family in Indonesia
03:57has not been reduced
03:59since the last decrease of 25 basis points
04:02to 6% at the moment.
04:04And indeed, for now, the technology sector,
04:06investors are quite interested
04:09in how the development of the technology sector will be at the end of 2024,
04:12where there will be a meeting of the Indonesian Banking Governors' Council
04:16which will decide the level of the Indonesian flower family
04:19which will be closed or maintained, like that.
04:21Okay, if we talk about the consensus itself,
04:25related to the decision of the Indonesian flower family,
04:28what does it look like so far, Mr. Abdul?
04:32If we look at the consensus related to the decision of the Indonesian flower family,
04:37we see that the consensus will still have a potential to be maintained,
04:41which is a step from the Indonesian Bank
04:46to maintain or stabilize the current exchange rate
04:50which is still depreciated by the US dollar.
04:53We see that since the middle or the end of September 2024,
04:57the US dollar exchange rate has experienced a weakness
05:01up to 4% from the best level at IDR 15,000 this year
05:06and is depreciated to the current level of IDR 15,800.
05:11It has become the main focus of the Indonesian Bank at the moment
05:15in addition to the inflation which has experienced a decrease since the last 7 months.
05:20Of course, that has also become the focus,
05:22but at the moment, the focus of the Indonesian Bank
05:24is to stabilize the exchange rate against the US dollar.
05:27Which is also related to the rejection of the community itself
05:29regarding the implementation of PPN to 12% in early 2025.
05:33This is considered to decrease the purchasing power of the community itself,
05:38which may be a consideration from the Indonesian Bank itself
05:43to decide to stay at 6% or decrease it
05:48so that the purchasing power of the community is still maintained.
05:54Actually, Indonesia is currently faced with two choices in terms of stability,
06:00namely inflation and the Rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar.
06:05Here we see that the inflation in Indonesia is currently at level 1.71%
06:11from the previous month at 1.84%
06:13and it has been decreasing for 6 months or 7 months.
06:18This indicates that the demand from the Indonesian community is very weak in the last few months
06:24and we also see from the consumer sector
06:27that there is a decrease in income or net profit from the same sector in the consumer sector.
06:33Of course, this is the focus of the Indonesian Bank
06:37related to the demand from the community in certain goods and services.
06:44Next, the Indonesian Bank is currently faced with the Rupiah exchange rate that I mentioned earlier
06:49where the Indonesian Bank is faced with a Rupiah exchange rate that is depreciated against the US dollar.
06:54But here we see that the urgency of the Indonesian Bank is currently aligned with the US dollar.
07:00Therefore, the consensus for the Indonesian Bank
07:04is that the decision will remain at 6% in the afternoon
07:09and there is no potential for a decrease in the Rupiah exchange rate
07:12even though the Fed has already decreased the Rupiah exchange rate by 75% in 2024.
07:18Let's see how the decision of the Indonesian Bank
07:21will remain or decrease the Rupiah exchange rate
07:25which will be announced today in Rabu.
07:27Back to the technology sector
07:29it seems that there is quite an intense attention from investors
07:34such as DCI and Gotoh.
07:36What do you think about the opportunities of these two stocks?
07:40Is it interesting to be collected later
07:42or do you see the momentum for the strengthening of the technology sector
07:48only for a moment and become prone to correction?
07:52What do you think, Abdul?
07:55Okay, thank you, Wiki.
07:56Related to Gotoh and DCI,
07:58I am more focused on Gotoh
08:01because we see that the DCI stock is already too expensive
08:04and the movement is not too liquid compared to Gotoh.
08:09But what is interesting about these two stocks is
08:12that from Gotoh itself, we can see that
08:15according to the latest financial report,
08:17in Q3 2024, the adjusted EBITDA is 137 billion Rupiah
08:25or moving from negative year-on-year in Q3 2023 to 559 billion Rupiah.
08:33This is a very positive sentiment or catalyst for this company
08:37and of course, investors are looking forward to the BEP
08:41from Labah Bersih Gotoh in the full year of 2024.
08:44And indeed, the projection related to Labah Bersih from Gotoh itself
08:48will be very positive until the end of 2024.
08:52And also, if we look at it,
08:54from the investor's point of view,
08:57they are also more confident about Sam Gotoh
08:59based on the price of Sam Gotoh that has been priced in until now
09:04to the level of around 70.
09:06And indeed, for Gotoh's target,
09:08until the end of 2024, there is still a potential to 90.
09:12On the other hand, the DCI is quite interesting in the eyes of investors
09:17based on the price movement that has risen quite significantly
09:23and indeed, there are some moments where this company is in suspense
09:29due to a deep recession.
09:30But indeed, what will be focused from me to the current investors
09:35for DCI is indeed,
09:37DCI is moving in the technology sector,
09:40where the industry is a data center.
09:42And we see that DCI has 7 data centers
09:45that are distributed in Indonesia,
09:47and among them are the top tier 3 and tier 4.
09:50Here we see that in 2025,
09:52the projection of the use of Artificial Intelligence or AI
09:55will continue to increase
09:57and the use of data centers will also increase.
10:00Of course, this will benefit the income from the DCI emittance in 2025.
10:05So indeed, that's what the investors see about these two stocks.
10:09Okay, it means that prospectively,
10:11these two stocks are quite interesting to be collected in the long term, right?
10:16Unless if we look at the valuation from DCI itself,
10:20it is said to be too expensive,
10:22even if there is a little correction,
10:24it can then be used to benefit investment in the medium to long term, right?
10:29Mr. Abdul, right?
10:30Yes.
10:31Okay, we will continue the discussion in the next segment
10:34and we will also discuss all the options this morning from you,
10:37Mr. Abdul, and our co-chair, we will be back soon.
10:40We are still discussing with Mr. Abdul Haq,
10:43Alpha Rookie Analyst from stocknow.id
10:45and we will discuss all the options this time from you, Mr. Abdul,
10:48including Antam, SRTG,
10:50then PYFA and also WIKA
10:53with all recommendations are BYE.
10:55With the support and resistance I read in order
10:58from Antam, SRTG, PYFA and also WIKA.
11:02Antam support at 1.430, resistance at 1.565,
11:06SRTG at 2.260 for support, 2.260 for resistance,
11:10then PYFA support at 2.60, resistance at 3.00,
11:14and also WIKA support at 3.00,
11:16and resistance at 3.40.
11:19Okay, we will try to discuss one by one, Mr. Abdul,
11:22Antam has been discussed quite a lot in recent days,
11:28especially with the increase in the needs of the community,
11:31Mr. Batangan from Antam,
11:33when the community wants to buy but the stock is not in the market.
11:37At this time, it shows that the needs are indeed increasing,
11:41which means for you, Mr. Antam,
11:44the price will increase,
11:47and may also contribute positive performance for the company, Mr. Abdul.
11:54Antam itself is still very interesting in terms of fundamentals,
11:57but investors see why Antam's stock fell in the last few days,
12:01because there is a negative catalyst from Antam itself,
12:04where the management will decrease the ratio of the PYF dividend,
12:10which is from 50% to 100% will drop below 50%,
12:14that is a negative response from the market players.
12:17But in terms of fundamentals itself, it is still very strong,
12:20and we also see that the gold price is still jumping, experiencing an increase,
12:24and of course, for the gold price, Antam itself will also experience an increase.
12:29Therefore, in terms of fundamentals, it is still very strong,
12:32and the price will continue to grow in 2025.
12:35And here I see Antam from a technical point of view,
12:39there is info coming in from ASING,
12:42as big as 22.7 billion in the last dividend,
12:45and I also see a rebound from the dynamic support in EMA100,
12:49so this is a positive sentiment for Antam itself from a technical point of view.
12:55Okay, in terms of valuation, the last price is interesting, 1475.
12:58What do you think, Mas?
13:00Okay, in terms of the price itself, it is still very interesting,
13:04because if we look at the balance, today Antam is just opened the open gap up
13:08at level 14.90, and it is quite interesting
13:12because it does not leave a lower shadow on the last dividend,
13:16so there is no indication of selling from the investors yet.
13:19Okay, in terms of the target for the end of the year for Antam itself,
13:22in the long term, what level is it, Mas Abdul?
13:25If we look at Antam itself, for the end of the year,
13:28there is still a potential for Antam to return to level 1600-1700,
13:32but in the long term, for investors,
13:35if Antam passes level 1700,
13:38there is a potential for Antam to return to level 2000,
13:41it is very possible that it will be passed by Antam in 2025.
13:46For the short term, is it interesting for trading?
13:49Yes, for the short term, it is still interesting,
13:51because we see here that Antam has been corrected quite deeply,
13:54and there is still a potential for Antam to rebound,
13:57and of course, Antam is still on track,
14:01from the dynamic support at level 1100.
14:04Okay, from Antam, we move to Saratoga, how is it, Mas?
14:09Okay, for Saratoga,
14:12if we talk to Saratoga,
14:15we will definitely agree with Adaro,
14:17and the decline in the last two days,
14:20the SRTG was caused by Adaro,
14:23which also went down after the SLB,
14:26related to the very massive dividend distribution,
14:29and we also see that from the inflow,
14:32the SRTG itself was bought by Xing,
14:35up to 18.3 billion rupiah,
14:37because here, the SRTG is still interesting for the technical rebound,
14:41after a fairly deep decline,
14:43and of course, here, investors,
14:45also pay attention to the decline,
14:47from the point of view, we are still using the MA100 indicator,
14:50here it is quite interesting,
14:51the SRTG decline is still maintained in the MA100 indicator,
14:54as a dynamic support,
14:55so there is a potential for the SRTG to experience a rebound,
14:58in the next few hours,
14:59in line with the movement of the bullish trend over the long term.
15:03Okay, the SRTG in the last month,
15:05weakened 6.3%,
15:06then in one week, it has weakened 4.7%,
15:09but today, it was opened,
15:13quite significant,
15:144.7% to 5%,
15:17the last level is at 2130,
15:20is it a good recommendation for the long-term investment term,
15:23or what is it like, Abdul?
15:26Of course, for investors,
15:28the SRTG is still interesting for the long term,
15:31even though the portfolio of the SRTG is dominated by Adro,
15:34and of course, later, if Adro experiences a spin-off,
15:37and the company will IPO, namely ADI,
15:40of course, ADI will be included in the portfolio of the SRTG,
15:43and it will be greatly benefited by the SRTG,
15:45which will get the purchase right over ADI,
15:48where the purchase ratio is 100-23,
15:51and of course, later, the portfolio of the SRTG will be dominated by ADI,
15:55compared to Adro,
15:56which will focus on Green Energy.
15:58Okay, from Saratoga, let's go to PIVA, what is it like, Mas?
16:03Okay, for PIVA itself,
16:04here we see that fundamentally,
16:08it is still experiencing a decline,
16:11but we see that the prospect of PIVA is still very interesting,
16:14because indeed, in recent times,
16:17PIVA has been cooperating with a cosmetic company,
16:20which will be an expansion project of PIVA,
16:24where currently there are drugs and will switch to cosmetics,
16:28of course, this will diversify the business of PIVA,
16:30will be interesting for investors.
16:32And of course, here we will also see from the technical side,
16:35that in the last trade, PIVA was closed at the highest level,
16:39and of course, this formed what is called a bullish marubozu candle,
16:43which indicates that the purchase pressure is very massive,
16:46in the last trade.
16:48Okay, in terms of length and short term,
16:50it is interesting for PIVA, right?
16:52Yes, for the long term, it is still very interesting for PIVA,
16:55but for investors,
16:57it is also important for the entry to buy on weakness,
17:00actually for the business of PIVA.
17:02Okay, it's been a long time since we heard Wika
17:05enter the radar of share recommendations from several analysts,
17:08Wika entered, was recommended,
17:10today, Mas Abdul, from you, what is the analysis like?
17:14Well, for Wika herself, it's very interesting here,
17:16why? Because indeed,
17:18a fairly deep investment from Wika is actually
17:20not accompanied by a negative sentiment,
17:22and of course, indeed,
17:24the increase in Wika's share is still very reasonable,
17:27in line with the bullish trend movement,
17:30so, investors, please pay attention here,
17:32Wijaykarya will implement the so-called
17:36General Meeting of Obligation Holders and Sukuk Holders
17:39in December,
17:41in 2024,
17:43in fact, on 17 December later,
17:45and of course, investors really hope that
17:47there is no PKPU indication from Wika itself,
17:50and we see that in terms of Wika's own share collectability,
17:54here, it reaches 30.4%,
17:57so it becomes a positive catalyst for Wika
18:01to be able to repay obligations on
18:03obligations that are held by the holder of the obligation,
18:07so indeed, for Wika herself,
18:09it will still survive in 2025.
18:11Okay, the situation of TAM, then Saratoga,
18:13PIVA, and also Wika,
18:15became a side by side this morning, from you, Mas Abdul,
18:17one thing that is also interesting is related to
18:19the current dividend income from the BBCA,
18:22how big is the impact
18:25on the movement of the BBCA bank today, Mas Abdul?
18:30Yes, we see that today there is a dividend income from the BBCA,
18:34and we see that the price of the BBCA
18:37jumped 1.2% to the level of 10,050,
18:40this has become a market projection,
18:45when the dividend income is implemented,
18:47there will be investors who will
18:49reduce the dividend from the BBCA itself,
18:52because the investors
18:54do not see a decrease after the ex-debt,
18:56but there is a recovery after the ex-debt occurs,
18:59because indeed for the BBCA itself here,
19:01historically, after dividing the dividend,
19:03the recovery happens quite quickly
19:05if the macroeconomy is still in a normal state,
19:09of course, it is very interesting here for friends
19:11of the dividend value, dividend investing,
19:14to circle the BBCA before there is an ex-debt, like that.
19:18At the opening of the CCTO today,
19:21the BBCA moved from 1% to 1.26%,
19:25this is also quite in line with your projection this morning.
19:32Mas Abdul, before we finish,
19:34we will take a look at the movement of the ISG first,
19:36at this time, at 9 minutes past 9,
19:38when Indonesia is in the West,
19:40we pass through the data from RTI,
19:42for the ISG, so far it is moving strongly,
19:440.3% at level 7217.418,
19:50then SAMSAM, which is the top gainers,
19:52among them are INPC, BBRI, BDKR,
19:54then also BOAT, PSAB, PIVA,
19:57and also the losers, there is SOL, MLPT, HELI, ILS,
20:02then there is NIKE and also LOPI.
20:05In short, your projection of the ISG movement today,
20:08Mas Abdul, what is it like?
20:10For today, it will be closed,
20:12of course, we are here in line with SAMSAM together,
20:15like the BBCA here,
20:17so I am still optimistic to continue the strengthening,
20:21and also for the shares that have a large weight,
20:23such as BMRI, and also for the brand here,
20:26there is still no negative catalyst that satisfies the shares,
20:29so that at the end of the closing of the market,
20:31the ISG will be projected.
20:33Okay, Mas Abdul, thank you for communicating with us,
20:36I hope the information you convey can be useful
20:39and also be a reference from the investor's investment strategy,
20:42but the investment decision goes back to you,
20:45as an investor, a follower of IDX channel.
20:47Mas Abdul, thank you, good luck,
20:49stay healthy, see you later.
20:52Okay.