TopRated POLLSTER Projects HARRIS Landslide VICTORY in 2024 Election
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00:00Hey everyone, welcome back to the channel.
00:03Today we're discussing what might be the most significant poll of the month for the
00:07Kamala Harris campaign.
00:09Seriously, this could be the best news they've received so far.
00:13Although Kamala Harris is currently behind in the polls, this isn't just any Iowa poll,
00:18it's particularly noteworthy.
00:20So stay tuned as we break down why this poll is such a big deal and what it could mean
00:25for her campaign moving forward.
00:27This poll is from the Des Moines Register, conducted by the legendary Ann Selzer, who
00:32is renowned in the polling industry.
00:34With an A-plus rating, Selzer is regarded as one of the best pollsters in the nation.
00:40She has an exceptional track record for accuracy, particularly in Iowa, which is her specialty.
00:46And Selzer's polls are highly respected because she exclusively focuses on Iowa and
00:51has a remarkable history of getting results spot on.
00:54She conducts polls for the Iowa caucus and releases them the night before the caucus,
00:59which adds to the excitement and anticipation around her findings.
01:03Selzer's polling is rarely seen because it is both costly and highly accurate, which
01:08is why it garners so much attention when she does release results.
01:12Her ability to consistently deliver precise predictions has established her reputation
01:17as a top-tier pollster.
01:19This particular poll is significant not only because of the credibility of the pollster,
01:24but also due to its timing and the context it provides.
01:27The latest poll conducted by Selzer reveals some noteworthy insights into the current
01:32political landscape.
01:34According to this poll, Donald Trump is leading in Iowa with 47% of the vote.
01:39Kamala Harris follows with 43% and RFK Jr., despite his withdrawal from the race, still
01:46manages to capture 6% of the vote.
01:49This data is crucial as it reflects the post-debate sentiment among voters, giving a snapshot
01:54of how recent political events might be influencing public opinion.
01:58One key point to consider is that this poll was conducted after the most recent presidential
02:03debate.
02:04This timing is significant because it captures the immediate impact of the debate on voter
02:09preferences.
02:10The results are creating quite a stir, which is expected given the prestige of Selzer's
02:16polling.
02:17Interactions and discussions around this poll are skyrocketing, indicating that people are
02:21paying close attention to its findings.
02:24Donald Trump's lead of 4% in Iowa is particularly noteworthy.
02:28In the 2020 election, Trump won Iowa by an 8% margin.
02:33The fact that his current lead has shrunk by half compared to the previous election
02:37is a critical detail.
02:39This suggests a shifting dynamic in the state that could have implications for the broader
02:43election landscape.
02:45Kamala Harris' performance in this poll is also striking.
02:49She is not merely underperforming compared to Joe Biden's 2020 results.
02:54She is significantly falling short.
02:56Biden won Iowa by a substantial margin in 2020, and Harris' current numbers are not
03:01just slightly below his, they are 4 percentage points lower.
03:06This is a substantial gap and indicates that she is not achieving the level of support
03:10that Biden did in the last election.
03:13The implications of these findings are considerable.
03:16If the election were held tomorrow, this poll suggests that Trump would win Iowa by a 4%
03:21margin.
03:22This is a notable reduction from his 2020 performance, but it still represents a lead.
03:27For the Kamala Harris campaign, this data is a clear signal that they need to address
03:32the factors contributing to her underperformance in Iowa.
03:36In summary, this poll from and Selzer highlights a significant moment in the political landscape.
03:42The fact that Selzer, a pollster known for her accuracy and expertise, is reporting a
03:474% lead for Trump in Iowa, with Harris trailing and RFK Jr. still garnering a notable percentage,
03:54adds weight to the analysis.
03:56The results are especially relevant considering the timing, coming after a major debate, and
04:01provide valuable insight into the current state of the race.
04:05This poll underscores the challenges facing the Kamala Harris campaign and signals potential
04:10shifts in voter sentiment that could influence the upcoming election.
04:14I truly believe Kamala Harris has the potential to win decisively and recent polling suggests
04:20this could indeed be the case.
04:22We'll cover all the details in this In-Depth video, but first, let's contextualize the
04:27numbers.
04:28In the 2020 election, Donald Trump won Iowa by a margin of 8.2%.
04:34However, he's now performing 4% worse in the state compared to his 2020 results.
04:40This indicates a notable shift towards the left in Iowa, which could be a significant
04:45factor for the upcoming election.
04:47To give you more context, let's look back at the 2020 Iowa polling landscape.
04:52One Democratic pollster had Joe Biden leading by just one point.
04:56Among the various polls conducted, the Des Moines Registers and Selzer poll stood out
05:01for its accuracy.
05:02They predicted Trump would win by 7 points, just to point off the actual 8.2% margin.
05:08This poll was notably close to the final results, reflecting a reliable trend.
05:14For the 2024 Republican Iowa caucus, and Selzer's poll was also quite accurate, though there
05:20were minor discrepancies regarding candidates like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.
05:25Their predictions were generally on point, demonstrating their strong track record in
05:29Iowa polling.
05:31In 2022, they accurately projected Chuck Grassley's win, underscoring their credibility.
05:37Despite Kamala Harris' recent surge in national polls, where she was ahead by 0.2% today,
05:44Iowa's dynamics remain critical.
05:47The state's shifting political landscape and the accuracy of past polls make it a focal
05:52point for understanding the potential trajectory of Harris' campaign.
05:56We'll delve deeper into what these trends mean for the upcoming election and how they
06:00could influence the overall race.
06:03Stay tuned as we explore these insights further.
06:06Kamala Harris is currently leading by 2.8%, marking a notable gain in national polls.
06:12Her increased standing across the country and in key battleground states is clear, but
06:17her progress in Iowa is especially striking.
06:20Initially, I didn't expect her to make significant gains in Iowa compared to Joe Biden.
06:26Biden, being a moderate and an older white male, had a certain appeal to rural voters
06:31that Harris, as a more progressive and historically significant African American woman, might
06:36not match in these areas.
06:39At the start of the race, I debated whether to classify Iowa as a safe Republican state
06:44or one where Trump would be likely to win by a significant margin, around 15 points.
06:50Given that context, Kamala Harris being only 4 points behind demonstrates a remarkable
06:55shift.
06:56This isn't just about regional variations.
06:59It highlights a broader national trend.
07:02Harris' rise is indicative of a new option that resonates with voters across the country.
07:07In the 2020 election, Trump won Iowa by 8.2%.
07:12Comparing this to the current scenario where Harris is just 4 points behind, it underscores
07:17a significant change.
07:19To further illustrate this, consider the poll from June 17th, shortly after a debate, where
07:25Trump was leading Biden by a substantial 18 points in Iowa.
07:29Now, with Harris as the Democratic nominee, Trump's lead has been reduced to just 4 points.
07:36This dramatic shift in the poll results reflects a considerable turnaround in the race.
07:41This development raises an intriguing question.
07:44Could Kamala Harris replicate this trend nationwide?
07:47If she can outperform Biden's 2020 margins by 4% across the entire country, it would
07:52signify a substantial shift in voter preferences.
07:56It's noteworthy that while Iowa's movement to the left was unexpected, other states like
08:01Michigan and Pennsylvania might trend even more significantly towards the left with Harris
08:05as the nominee.
08:07The fact that Iowa is moving 4% to the left with Harris, a candidate who initially seemed
08:12less likely to perform well in rural states, suggests a broader trend that could impact
08:17the overall election landscape.
08:19If Harris can achieve similar gains in other states, it could reshape the electoral map
08:24and pose a serious challenge to Republican strongholds.
08:28This evolving dynamic highlights the potential for a more competitive race in the coming
08:33election.
08:34How would this shift look on the national electoral map?
08:36To assess the impact, we'll consider not just the seven key battleground states but
08:41also include places like Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Florida, which were less competitive until
08:47this recent surprising poll emerged.
08:50Let's explore the scenario where every state shifts 4% to the left based on current results.
08:56For instance, in Michigan, where Biden won by 2.8%, a 4% shift would extend his margin
09:02to 6.8%, turning it into a likely Democratic state.
09:07Nevada would see a similar transformation, becoming a likely Democratic state as well.
09:12Pennsylvania, a crucial state, which Biden won by just 1.2%, would see a 4% shift turning
09:19it into a likely Harris victory with a 5.2% margin, a significant change.
09:25Wisconsin, which Biden won by 0.6% and Georgia, where he won by 0.2%, would both see margins
09:33increasing to 4.6% and 4.2%, respectively, making them lean Democratic.
09:40Arizona, where Biden won by 0.3%, would shift to a 4.3% margin, also leaning Democratic.
09:48North Carolina, which Trump won by 1.3%, would shift 4% to the left, giving Harris a 3-point
09:56lead, making it a lean Democratic state.
09:58With these shifts, Harris would already secure 319 electoral votes, surpassing the necessary
10:05majority.
10:06Examining more traditionally Republican states, Florida, which Trump won by 3.4%, would shift
10:12to a Harris win by 0.6%, a tilt margin.
10:17Although Harris is already winning the election, this 30 electoral vote gain is significant.
10:22Texas, where Trump won by 5.6%, would narrow to a 1.6% margin for Harris, turning it into
10:30a lean Democratic state.
10:32This would force the Trump campaign to defend a state previously considered secure.
10:37Finally, Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won by substantial margins, would both shift to a
10:434-point margin in favor of Harris, reflecting the broader shift across the electoral map.
10:49We're seeing a shift where two more states are moving from lean Republican to either
10:53likely or safe Democratic.
10:55This is exactly the opposite of what Republicans would hope for.
10:59Additionally, states like Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, traditionally
11:06Democratic and not core battlegrounds, are becoming nearly safe for Democrats.
11:11These states, which require some effort but aren't major battlegrounds, are now solidifying
11:16for the Democrats.
11:18Alaska is also moving to the likely Democratic column.
11:22Several other states are shifting to the likely Democratic category, including South Carolina,
11:27Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Montana, and Nebraska's 1st District.
11:33This broad shift suggests a potential landslide victory if these trends continue.
11:38Given the recent debate and the positive data from Seltzer's Iowa poll, I genuinely believe
11:44Kamala Harris could win by a significant margin in 2024.
11:48This belief is based on the current trends and polling data.
11:52Even though Harris isn't projected to win Florida, my prediction is that Harris will
11:56secure every state that Biden won in 2020 and potentially add North Carolina to her
12:01list of victories.
12:03To sum up, my current forecast shows a 319 to 219 electoral map in favor of Harris.
12:11This projection reflects a substantial shift in the electoral landscape due to the latest
12:16poll results.
12:17This is a major development and it changes the dynamics of the race considerably.
12:22Thank you for watching this video.
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12:34Thanks again for tuning in and I'll see you in the next video.