Kent Politics Show Special: Election 2024 (23:18-00:15)
Watch back KMTV's live coverage of the UK's 2024 General Election results.
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00:00Welcome back to Medway Park. I'm Rob Bailey and with me here now is Kate Belmonte from
00:08the Green Party and Robert Boddy, a local democracy reporter here in Kent. Kate, we're
00:14discussing the exit poll. Obviously, it's very, very early days. We've got one vote
00:19up on the, one constituency up on the board now. It's about as far from here as you can
00:24get. So it is very, very early days. But the exit poll says two seats for the Greens. Now,
00:31the Greens have been making great ground in Kent over the last few years. Control of Folkestone
00:36and Hyde, control now of Maidstone effectively in a coalition. The vote share has been going
00:41up and up and up. How disappointing is that exit poll result for you? Well, it is disappointing
00:47because we were hoping for four. We've done four fantastic campaigns. But to double the
00:52number of MPs we've got is also fantastic. So having at least two Greens in Parliament
00:59to keep things on track and to challenge where needed will be amazing. Were you expecting
01:05to see, I mean, obviously, we don't know exactly how the vote share will come out in Kent yet,
01:10but are you expecting to see big progress from the Greens? Oh, definitely. Particularly
01:14in those seats where you've already done well in local elections? Yeah, no, definitely.
01:18I mean, I think once people see a Green in the council working for them, then there's
01:23just that, oh, maybe they're not all hippies and tree-huggers. They're actually working
01:26really hard. So hopefully, that will be reflected in tonight's results. We've seen, obviously,
01:33the upstart reform. Yes. There with 13 potentially kind of seats, the way it's been predicted
01:39at the moment. Parties kind of leaping ahead. Is that going to make the Greens' primary
01:46objective in politics, essentially putting those Green issues at net zero, the targets
01:50for, I mean, obviously, the Green Party was talking about bringing that net zero target
01:54much, much, much, much sooner than any of the other mainstream parties. Is that going
01:58to make it harder for you to kind of lobby and make changes on that? I think at the moment,
02:05the way that Labour are looking at dealing with the climate crisis is obviously very
02:09concerning for us because they're not bold enough. They're not doing it in a quick enough
02:14timeframe. But the fact that our voice is being heard now, we will keep going, we will
02:20keep pushing because the reality is if we want this planet to be habitable for humans,
02:25in the future, we need to make some drastic changes. We want to take people on that journey
02:30and the sooner we do that, the better because if we leave it too late, it's going to cost
02:34more money. It's going to be so much of a change for people. So I think that if Carla
02:41is in as well, they're going to be seeing the teams working together and hopefully that
02:46means that we will sort issues out quicker. Robert, you've been covering this all the
02:51way through the six weeks. You're a specialist democracy reporter. What's been your take
02:56on the campaign and what the big shocks, the big surprises have been so far? I mean, I
03:01suppose the biggest element of this has not really been, I mean, the Labour have run a
03:06very, very good campaign. It's fair to say. But I think they've been massively lucky as
03:11well. The role of the dice has basically, Kirstein has kind of not put a foot wrong.
03:15There's been a couple of positions that could have been very difficult for him, but it really
03:19didn't develop that way. Whereas for Rishi Sunak, it's the complete opposite. You know,
03:22everything seemed to go wrong with, you know, D-Day, MPs getting caught up in this gambling
03:28scandal and all these sorts of things. It just seems to be going wronger and wronger
03:32for the Tories. So, to be honest, I'm not surprised at the state of this exit poll.
03:38I had been a bit sceptical about the massive leads that some were predicting Labour would
03:43have. But yeah, it's kind of part of the course. One of the things I want to talk to you about
03:47when we come back in a second is boundary changes and what kind of issues they might,
03:52how that affects things. But before we do that, we're going to go and talk to Gabriel
03:55Morris. He's in Maidstone and Morling, which is one of the seats which has been very much
03:59affected by boundary changes. Gabriel, what are things looking like there?
04:03Evening, Rob. Hope it's all going well down in Medway, just down the Bluebell Hill in
04:11Moats Hall in Maidstone. This is a leisure centre. You can smell the chlorine in the
04:15air. In fact, when I arrived here, scuba divers were here doing their weekly training, but
04:21they've all gone. Election agents are in and some candidates are starting to come in for
04:25the Maidstone and Morling seat and also the Faversham and Mid Kent seat, which is also
04:29being counted here this evening. Now, you are right. There have been boundary changes
04:35here. Now, in Maidstone and Morling, it's a Tory stronghold and they have lost some
04:41of their key areas, such as Headcourt and gaining Lib Dem areas as well. Now, in the
04:48polling, Reform have been coming second in some of those polls alongside Labour and Lib
04:53Dems. And actually, one poll, Labour could be winning altogether. But the exit poll
04:58suggests that Conservatives will win both in Maidstone and Morling and in Faversham
05:05and Mid Kent as well. So it seems those boundary changes might have not had as big of an effect
05:12as we may have thought before, as this seat was potentially all to play for. But we're
05:18still only at, what time is it now? 11.30. We're told the count, the final count will
05:24be in for around about 4.30 this evening. So, Rob, it's looking like we still have a
05:28long way, a long five hours to go until we know for certain. But at the moment, the answer
05:32on the ground is that the Conservatives are going to hold both seats.
05:39Yes, a long night ahead. I imagine a lot of the results will be coming in in that kind
05:43of window, that 4.30 window. Gabriel just explaining there that the Maidstone and Morling
05:49seat particularly is expected to be held by the Conservatives. It was one where there
05:54was some question about whether some of the more Lib Dem leaning areas that have been
05:58pulled into that seat might have an effect. But there are other places where the new boundaries
06:03might have quite a big impact. We've been talking about Ashford a little bit over the
06:08course of the evening so far, where Damien Green could lose. How significant do you
06:13think these new boundaries are? I mean, I think changes to the dynamics of any seat
06:18can be really significant. And it's a whole set of new constituents that you haven't really
06:23accounted for previously. So, these changes to the boundaries can be really, really significant,
06:27particularly, as you say, sort of places like Maidstone and Morling and that Ashford seat
06:30as well. I mean, the Weald of Kent is a brand new seat. And so there was a lot of questions
06:34about, you know, they should go one way, but might they? You know, there's combinations.
06:38And so, you know, a lot of candidates probably scratching their heads thinking, how do I deal
06:40with this, you know, over the past six weeks? OK, we're going to get to the end of the evening
06:44and we're going to be looking at a situation where Reform are probably going to stack up
06:48quite a significant number of votes, even if it doesn't necessarily equate to quite a proportionate
06:54number of seats. Greens are probably going to come up with quite a significant number of votes,
06:58even if it's only two seats. We're talking about boundary changes. But one of the big
07:02questions that's likely to emerge from this is, does our system work? No. I expected you to say
07:08that. I mean, do you think that this election might lead to that debate? Do you think that
07:13there might be? I think there has to be that debate. And I think we need to fill our bellies
07:18with fire because the reality is people are voting for Labour because they no longer want
07:23Conservatives, not because Labour are offering them a fantastic future. And so we need people
07:30to vote for the right reasons and we need to ensure that everyone's vote counts equally
07:34and is not purely down to geographical areas resulting in who becomes the MP. It's absolute
07:40madness that we are still having first past the post in this country, which is so diverse
07:46and has so many fantastic candidates from all parties. And actually, when you come together
07:53and everyone's at the table, things will go a lot more smoothly and there'll be less division
07:58in society because they'll see that the politicians are working together, regardless of whether
08:03they agree on one policy or the other, but they're working together to make the country better.
08:08The other side of that is Labour are likely to get this quite significant majority, probably
08:15on the basis of less than 40 per cent of the vote. There'll be no real benefit for them shaking
08:20up the system now. It won't, no. Liberal Democrats are in favour of proportional representation,
08:27Greens have just said are, but are they going to have any kind of a hand to play in terms of
08:32making that happen? Well, I think this is where the Labour membership comes in because they voted at
08:37conference to go for a proportional system. But the leader has decided to not include that
08:47on the manifesto because it is about just winning for them. It's not about what's right for the
08:53country. And I think the reality is they're very institutionalised organisations and
09:01you've seen that people have been taken away from standing in certain places.
09:06I do wonder how much say the Labour MPs themselves will have and how much whipping will go on.
09:13Robert, how likely do you think it is that we'll see, obviously we had the opportunity, we had the AV
09:17referendum 10 years ago now, didn't work. Do you think that that debate can come up again?
09:22I mean, previously, I mean, prior to 1997, proportional representation had been voted on by
09:28the Labour membership then as well. And obviously, then Tony Blair won a massive landslide and it
09:32got dropped. I think we're probably going to see the same thing today after this result. I think
09:38on the Lib Dems, who also have been a big proportional representation voice, I mean,
09:42we've seen Lib Dems have grown significantly in this election, or that's what the exit poll is
09:46suggesting. And I think part of that success is that the Lib Dems have really focused and
09:51targeted more to work within the first past the post system. So with these gains, they may even
09:56say, look, you know, this is a system, we're going to keep going for it because proportional
10:00representation, it doesn't seem like it's going to come anytime soon.
10:04And what do you think about the other story that we're not going to know quite yet is going to be
10:08around turnout? Do we expect this? I mean, there were reports today higher than expected. I don't
10:16know what that necessarily will shake down to, whether it will be upwards of 66% turnout, or
10:23whether it's going to still be slightly lower than that. What kind of a story do you expect
10:26that to tell us this evening?
10:28I mean, I wouldn't, 66, I mean, at the very maximum, I'm not expecting a massive turnout,
10:33because there is a lot of apathy. I mean, that is something that I mean, particularly the Labour
10:36campaign in the past couple of weeks, that's been their focus, their final advert of the campaign
10:40was, you know, don't let the Tories slip in because you didn't vote, basically. So I think
10:45there will be a lot of apathy. So turnout, but then equally, that drive to get the Tories out is
10:51very, very significant across the country. You know, I think that there are people who are like,
10:56this is the chance to get rid of them. And so that might, so it's hard to tell really.
11:01Yeah, a big part of that, Kate, is young voters, young voters often are in your demographic,
11:06aren't they? I mean, that's the thing. We've just had Glastonbury. Memorably, a few years ago,
11:12one of the headline acts of Glastonbury was Jeremy Corbyn, and he attracted a huge crowd.
11:17Didn't really get that kind of political sense out of Glastonbury this year. There was a lot
11:22of get out of the vote activity, but it wasn't the same kind of thing. Do you think young people
11:26particularly have been energised by this campaign?
11:28I think they have been energised in so much as they are aware that their future is very,
11:34very different to ours. They're going to be living through a lot of difficult times ahead
11:39if we don't start sorting things out immediately. Obviously, we are fully in support of 16-year-olds
11:46having the vote, because the reality is they may be pregnant with children, they may be in a flat,
11:54they may have basically issues that we all have, and they deserve a right on it, a vote on it.
12:02So, yeah, I do think they've come out. I think we've probably not seen as many.
12:06Do we think that's a more likely thing? We've talked about changes to the way the votes are
12:12counted and the way they're organised as being an unlikely thing, but there are quite a few
12:15parties now saying votes for 16s, Labour among them. Do we think that that's a likely change
12:19to happen in the next five years? I don't think Starmer will, no.
12:24I think, yeah, it was a good campaign element, but I think in reality it will get lost in the
12:30wash. I think many things will get lost once, yeah, they will.
12:34Oh, well, let's expand on that. What else do you think will?
12:37I think he'll go back on the 20 per cent, sorry, not 20 per cent, the removal of tax
12:42on private schools. I think he'll go back on that. I think there will continue to be no VAT
12:47on a profitable school who is not a charity. So, I think he would gain on that. I really
12:53do not think that British Energy is going to come about. One of the big things that
12:57that is stopping the renewables getting so big is the profit margins. They're simply
13:02not attractive enough. So, we need to have people that are willing to work to get that under
13:09nationalisation. But the reality is, well, I don't think...
13:13I mean, that was the first policy he announced before the election was even on the horizon.
13:18That was the first thing. Do you think that will go?
13:20I think it will go. I think, actually, he needs to be a lot bolder in terms of
13:24privatisation of things, sorry, the publicisation of things, because things are an absolute mess
13:30and we are being asset-stripped left and right, and I do not believe that he has the best intentions
13:35of the people. Well, let's go back to the floor here at Medway Park. Cameron is there
13:40just to give us a little update on how things are going with the count.
13:46Things are going well. We're now beginning to have a trickle of some of those dignitaries
13:52from all of the parties coming. I've noticed Theresa Murray from Medway Labour, Graham Colley,
13:57the candidate for Rochester, and Strood, Liberal Democrat. He's here. There's a lot of Reform UK
14:03rosettes here early. No sign of any of the incumbents yet or any of their Labour rivals.
14:12I'm sure to bring you those and any interviews we manage to bag with them over the course of the
14:16evening. An important arrival as well to mention is our old colleague, Joe Coshin. He's arrived
14:24with his IATV colleagues, with the rivals, so we'll be sure to chase to get some of those
14:30interviews before he does.
14:36It's amazing how many people didn't even know it was a general election.
14:38OK, thank you, Cameron, for that update. So we were just talking about what a Keir Starmer
14:46premiership, what his government might look like, the kind of priorities it might have.
14:51We were talking about energy. I'm very interested to kind of stick with that for a moment because
14:56one of the big debates in Kent over the last few years has been about nuclear.
15:02The Conservatives, particularly in Kent, very, very keen on Dungeness. They say it will bring
15:08jobs. Robert, what's your take on the potential future of a small modular reactor,
15:14as they call it down at Dungeness now?
15:16Well, I mean, I know there's sort of quite significant local opposition there, which
15:20obviously throws up a lot of issues. I think it goes back to, as Kate was saying about weather,
15:24how bold Keir Starmer is going to be if he says we've got to become self-reliant with energy,
15:30if Great British Energy is really on the cards and he really wants to push forward with it.
15:36And there's a couple of questions about whether it would actually generate energy or whether it
15:39will be sort of a strange amalgamation of getting energy from other places. But if he is set on it,
15:46I think nuclear energy is probably the way forward. And it might be the case of local
15:52opposition just doesn't come on. I mean, that's part of the planning
15:55reform that's being talked about, isn't it? Essentially, the growth priorities can override
16:01local opposition. That's part of the reform that's coming. I mean, the Greens have had a strange
16:07relationship with nuclear over the years. They've been pro and anti at various different times.
16:12If that becomes something that could happen in Kent, how would you feel about it?
16:17Scientifically, nuclear is fantastic. It's amazing. But the reality is it's so expensive
16:22to actually then build it can take 10, 15 years, and then you've only got 30, 40 years
16:28of actual capacity. So the fact that where they need to be placed by the sea and seas are rising,
16:35we're going to see up to 900 mil at the moment by 2050. So that could go up. That's not a worst
16:41case scenario. So if we were to spend that $20 billion now within the next two years, we could
16:47have a massive renewable infrastructure ready to go producing energy for people rather than
16:55spending $20 billion on a main nuclear reactor, not the mini ones, and then the people and the
17:02storage and everything else. Let's just put new renewable up. It's not got any safety concerns,
17:09really. Even the turbines, when you look at the damage they can do to birds, cats kill more than
17:16actually the turbines do. So it's really about what's the most economical way to do it, and it
17:22is simply through putting solar, wind, thermal, and we're an island, our tidal.
17:29Is there the capacity in Kent for more of that? We already have some of the biggest solar parks in
17:33the country. We have the biggest wind park in the country. Yeah, there is certainly. I mean, every
17:37single car park that's outside should have panels on top of it, not least because you can also
17:42collect rainwater. Every building within the city, I can't speak, I'm too tired,
17:51should need solar on it. Every new development should have solar on it. And wind, you know,
17:56there are some fantastic places that wind could go, and I love a turbine. I think they look amazing,
18:00and I understand people that don't, but the reality is if we do not decarbonise our electricity
18:06supply, we are going to be in a lot of trouble, and we need to lead the way for other countries.
18:10You know, I'm very proud to be British, and I want to be us. I want to be leading that, and the
18:15technology and the battery storage, everything. We could do it all. Well, we've just had big news
18:20from down on the floor with Cameron Tucker, where all of the boxes have now arrived in Medway. So
18:25what's happening, Cameron? That's right. We've just had the returning officer come up on stage
18:31to say all 97 boxes from the 97 polling stations across Medway have arrived, including 16 from
18:40the Tunbridge constituency, which are also being counted. Some of those are being counted
18:45here. All of them arrived, so it is just a case of all the many dozens of counters behind us
18:52tallying them up. Any close-run things will ensure that the candidates will go in for recounts.
18:59We don't know at this stage how likely that is going to be to happen, and like I said,
19:04no views yet on any of the candidates or any of the Labour Conservative candidates have arrived
19:11at this point. Like I said earlier on, it's looking like, from speculation from those exit polls,
19:18those three blue seats going red by the end of this evening.
19:26So we can see it's a hive of activity down there on the counting floor. We'll look,
19:32we'll be waiting for updates from there, but let's continue our chat here, Robert. We're talking
19:38about the kind of predictions of what a Keir Starmer government might look like. We've been
19:42talking about the environment, and one of the big things, you dial back a year, everyone assumed
19:48that the ultra-low emission zone in London was actually a thorn in the side of Labour,
19:53deeply unpopular. The Conservative narrative was people hate it, people won't vote for it.
19:58Obviously, we saw the London mayor leadership elections earlier this year didn't go that way.
20:07What do you think the future of those kinds of policies are now? Because there are a lot of
20:10people out there that are very nervous that we're going to start seeing ULEZs pop up all over the
20:14place. Do you think that's likely now? I mean, I have seen sort of some people saying, you know,
20:19a national ULEZ and that sort of thing. I don't think that's ever going to be plausible, realistic
20:24or, you know, necessary. I mean, I recently was living in Manchester and they had a sort of a
20:30similar sort of thing, a low emission zone, which faced a lot of local opposition. I think, you know,
20:37they will crop up more. I do believe that. And I think particularly within London, a lot of people,
20:42I know there's a lot of noise about them, people being against them, but a lot of people do support
20:47them. And Dartford going red today is a very interesting thing for that because that's the
20:52borough that's really most affected by it. Absolutely, yeah. I think, you know, there's a
20:58small number of people making a large amount of noise that basically has swayed the Tories in
21:04going down that direction. And Labour did, you know, immediately after that,
21:08sort of the Uxbridge by-election were sort of turning that way as well. I think it's calmed
21:12down a bit more. This massive majority will probably give Keir Starmer a bit more confidence
21:17to basically cut his own path. Hopefully, that's what he thinks anyway. But so I think this may
21:24not really be an issue that causes a lot of stink in the future, I don't think. Well, I'm told we
21:28can go back to Abbey Hook now in the KMTV studio, who's got some more for us.
21:36Okay, thank you, Rob. Back to the KMTV studio, got Patrick Lowline from Tambridge Conservative
21:42and Paul Francis, political commentator from Kent Online as well. Here, we're looking at the exit
21:48poll here, the national picture. It's always nice when you see it in the coloured dots in
21:53its simplest form to be able to get that picture. Paul, I'll come to you first. What was your
21:59initial takeaway when you saw this come out? About 40 minutes ago now, it's flown by.
22:04Well, I thought it would make a nice bit of wallpaper.
22:08It was pretty much in line with my expectations of the numbers breakdown. You know,
22:14Labour have obviously scored a huge victory. But I think the Tories might be not too dismayed by
22:23the number of MPs they've returned. It's the kind of least worse outcome, I think, for the
22:28Conservatives. And it'll be interesting to see who actually goes and who actually stays. That's
22:35the next important bit. Yeah, as we're starting to see, we are a few hours, a good few hours away
22:41from some of our results coming in for Kent, as we hear from our reporters. Still, not all the
22:45boxes collected, all 97 at Medway, though. What's your reaction, Patrick, to the national picture
22:52of the exit poll? No, I think there's a little bit too much red in that picture for my liking.
22:57But yeah, I have to live with it, I'm afraid. But yeah, the result for the Conservatives is
23:04it's not as bad as some feared, at least. But there are some surprises there. The big surprise
23:11is that we'd have two green MPs. I don't see that happening at all. I'd love anybody to name where
23:19they could be. And I think 13 reform may also be a bit excessive. But I'm delighted to see the
23:25SNP down to 10 seats. So yeah. Do you think that that's down to, we've been having a lot of
23:33discussion with my previous guests here in the studio as well, and across our coverage about
23:37the campaigns or the lack thereof of the Conservative campaign. Do you think that's
23:42reflective? No, I think people just had enough of 14 years Conservative government. I think that's
23:48the main thing. And I think that's also what we see in the other countries. So with Scotland as
23:54well, people there have had enough of SNP government. They just want change. And yeah,
23:59I think that's the main thing we're seeing in all these elections, just desire for some change,
24:03really. And Patrick mentioned reform in there, those 13 seats there. And where we could see
24:08that rise in Kent, and there was whispers of Sittingbourne and Sheppey and a few votes going
24:15for reform there. Gravesham, there were whispers too, Paul? Yeah, I personally think it's unlikely
24:21that reform will get any seats actually in Kent. I'm prepared to be defeated on that. But I think
24:30what they will get is lots of votes. But lots of votes don't necessarily equate to lots of seats.
24:35I mean, in some of these Conservative strongholds, they may increase their number of people
24:41supporting them, but it won't make any actual difference to the outcome. So it's often said,
24:48isn't it, that elections are won or lost on the basis of a very small number of constituencies.
24:53And I think that's reflected in what we've got so far. And over to Tunbridge, Patrick,
25:00Tom Tugendhat, Inner Cabinet, whispers of running for leader if Sunak stands down, if he got the
25:07chance. Will he have a chance at securing that position, given the makeup of this election and
25:14what it looks like so far? I don't see why not at all, if he decides to go for that, because
25:23at some point, Rishi will want to step back. I hope he doesn't do so immediately to give us some
25:28time. Because we should have any choice in it. Well, the men in grey suits will come and knock
25:33on his door. No, no. Actually, that takes some time as well, because the men in grey suits would
25:39have to come from the 1922 committee, which isn't sitting until now. And probably they've lost 22
25:45seats from that committee. Yeah, well, we'd have to elect a new committee before anything like that
25:50could happen. But I expect him to stay on. And then hopefully we'll take time over for a leadership
25:56contest, because we should have a bit of debate, ideally, in my view, about the future direction
26:01of the party before that happens as well. Would Tom Tugendhat make a good Prime Minister?
26:06I think so. And I think he'd make a good leader, because he can actually unite different factions
26:10of the party around him. He's not particularly aligned to one wing or another. So we certainly
26:16need somebody of that calibre. We don't really want the kind of fighting that we've seen before.
26:19Whoever does take on the leadership of the party has to try and unite the party.
26:25It's a challenge after the situation we're looking at now. Paul, what's your thoughts on that,
26:31talking about Tom Tugendhat? Well, I mean, they do say that it's best to avoid being a successor
26:36to the person who's failed, a bit like football club managers. I think he's got the credentials.
26:42I think a large factor will be the 130, projected 130 MPs, which wing of the Conservative Party they
26:51are coming from and what they're representing. I mean, he is a One Nation Tory in some regards,
26:58but he's also quite shrewd in playing to the rights of the party as well, on issues like
27:04security and defence. I mean, definitely more than the right of the party on those kinds of
27:09issues. I'd agree with that. But there's plenty of time to... And I think the kind of MPs that
27:17we want to return would back him, I think. I mean, he's always said that if you want to win
27:24the lottery, you've got to get a ticket for it. So he's definitely expressed interest in this job.
27:32But I think it's going to be a bit... You don't get many people saying, yes, I want that job
27:37at this stage of proceedings. It would be seen to be a bit unseemly. So I think they're kind of
27:44erring on the side of caution and not being explicit about their intentions.
27:49Yeah, it's not the first time we've heard that intention as well. And now looking at the
27:53rest of the picture and the exit poll results for Kent, what surprised you? There's been a lot
27:59of talk about the Hern-Bain sandwich, Roger Gale's seat looking to go to Labour. Paul, what do you think?
28:06Well, I went down to Hern-Bain, did a little bit of vox poppy on my own. And it was quite
28:11interesting because a lot of people really liked Roger Gale, but didn't necessarily like the
28:18Conservative Party. So he's been around such a long time that he's a bit of a fixture in that
28:24part of Kent. And when I spoke to him about what the polls were sort of indicating,
28:30he kind of acknowledged that there was going to be a chance of him losing his seat. And he
28:34reeled off a list of things that he hadn't been able to do. And it's almost giving me a sense that
28:42he knew what might be in the offering. And Patrick, how much do you think the voting is down to
28:50the member standing, the candidate standing? I mean, you're meant to go and vote for the person
28:55you want to see in Parliament, what to represent you, sort of regardless of party, it's meant to be
29:00who matters to me, who's going to cover the issues that I want covered in Parliament, who's going to
29:05speak my voice. But I suppose it does, it gets washed down in that national picture that we've
29:10been looking at, people are voting for a party, not a person. How important do you think that is?
29:15Do you think it needs to be? Do we need to focus on the person or do we? I think we should. I
29:20think I actually asked a very unscientific poll about that last week, just asking randomly on
29:26social media, you know, what matters to you regardless of party? Is it just the party,
29:30the quality of the candidate, this kind of thing? And the response to that very unscientific poll
29:35was actually for 60% of people, the party is all that matters. But then in my experience,
29:40I'm knocking on doors, let's say for Tom Tugendhat in the last month, it is very much about the
29:46individual, it's very important, or today, you know, I speak to my parents as well, they actually,
29:50you know, decided to vote differently than they thought originally because of loyalty to the MP
29:55about how much the MP had done for them. So yeah, I think it does matter for about a third of the
30:01population. It should be more really, because how constitutionally the UK works, we elect an
30:06individual, and that individual happens to be with the party, but if they then decide to elect
30:11another party, we still keep them as our MP. And Paul, your coverage of Kent, are you seeing those
30:17same loyalties, people sticking to an MP that served them for time on end, or are they going
30:23for the person that matters to them there and then in the issues of the current day? I don't know,
30:28I can't read the minds of... Wasn't it with Roger Gale just now, it sounded like? Yes,
30:33there are candidates, former MPs who have got that personal kind of vote, carry a bit of a
30:40personal vote. Tracey Crouch, probably one of them, obviously she's not, but that, you know,
30:45her position was solidified by the type of person she was and the relationship she had built. She's
30:51one that sticks out to me. Yeah, some are more personality than political, some are more
30:57political than personality. It depends on the individual, which is not providing any massive
31:04insight into the minds of voters. But, you know, some MPs don't necessarily have the kind of
31:13ability to connect with people in the ways that others do. And we were talking just then about
31:19sort of the views on voting, the way people vote, the way that changes as well. We've seen that
31:25result come in for Sunderland, the Labour seat, the turnout there, 51%. Does that surprise you,
31:33our first result coming through a voter turnout of 51%? Pretty low. Yeah, I was hearing very high
31:42numbers all day long. So that is a big shock to me. Very low, very low indeed. Yeah. And you're
31:47saying it's a Labour win? Yes. Okay. It's looking like Bridget Philipson could be the next Education
31:53Secretary. Oh, right, okay. So we love the raw reaction. Well, I don't know what to say about that.
32:02Okay, we'll have some time to mull that over for you then, Paul. And we've now got
32:06Sean McPollan who's joining us, Sean McPollan that's joining us now. Sean, what's it like where you are?
32:14Yeah, it's good here at the minute. It's getting lively. You can see just down here the votes are
32:18coming in and getting counted. We've got some of the candidates behind us who have arrived.
32:24We're still waiting to see Laura Trott, who the polls are expecting to regain her seat here.
32:30But yeah, everything's underway. We've also got the Police and Crime Commissioner, Matthew Scott,
32:34who's just behind me. Okay, Sean, thank you very much. An important seat that one, Sevenoaks.
32:44There was some whispers, some chatter about it before, but it's looking like it will stay
32:49with Laura Trott. Laura Trott is a rising star within the Conservative Party. She is someone who
32:56is seen as someone with a bright future in politics. And she's in a rock solid safe seat too.
33:03And sometimes voters look at that as when they're weighing up who to vote for. But I think we're
33:10going to see more of her. She's with the Treasury, definitely got ministerial ambitions,
33:17I would have thought. And who knows, maybe leadership ambitions too.
33:21Oh, you reckon leadership?
33:23No.
33:27If we're looking at our Conservatives going for leadership, then Tom Tugendhat or Laura Trott?
33:32Yeah, the dream team.
33:34The dream team. We're going to get that quoted for you.
33:38Well, you know, as we said, I think Tom Tugendhat is definitely going to go for it. He's going to
33:44pass up the opportunity. Even though he came in, he got knocked out in the third round,
33:49didn't he, last time? I think.
33:52Yes, I think it was. He did well in the first round.
33:55Yeah. And he had a very well organised campaign team with lots of people funding his campaign.
34:03And yeah, he did a good job on the campaign front, just didn't get the result that he wanted.
34:10And on government jobs, any for the new Labour MPs, potentially?
34:16From the county?
34:17Well, I don't know enough about the new Labour MPs.
34:21Well, I think we should keep an eye on Polly Billington in East Thanet. Thanet East,
34:27Thanet West, South and North and East. I don't know what part of Thanet it is.
34:31In East Thanet.
34:33She seems to be well regarded and used to be a journalist. Not that that should influence any
34:42decision.
34:43Yeah, we had Barry Lewis on the show about coming up almost two hours ago now. Time is flying by
34:49on this. And he was saying much of the same. He's worked a lot with her and been out.
34:54She used to be the BBC reporter on Radio 1 back in the day. I'm old enough to remember this.
35:02When Radio 1 was experimenting with news coverage,
35:05so they appointed Polly as their kind of youth news reporter.
35:11But just a little fact about her background.
35:15And why do you think it was that Rishi Sunak didn't make an appearance down here in Kent,
35:20down here in the county? Does it follow that gaffe in Tunbridge Wells,
35:25where he spoke about finances and money? Do you think that's why he perhaps didn't
35:30come on down here? Why do you think he didn't make an appearance here? We saw Sir Keir Starmer
35:34launch the campaign at Medway round the corner at Gillingham Football Club.
35:37I don't think. I've actually never given it any thought. And I don't know why he didn't
35:42come to Kent. And I didn't actually realise he didn't come to Kent.
35:44One reason sometimes that leaders don't visit is because they send a message that their presence
35:50would not necessarily be welcome on the campaign trail. And given his rating or low rating amongst
35:59some people, they may have taken the view that a visit was not going to do them any favours
36:06and sent a message back to GCSU. I'm inclined to believe that he was given
36:11bad advice because he's been given a lot of bad advice over his whole term by the people around
36:16him. And something we've been talking about before is campaigns and how effective they are,
36:21how much they matter. We've been talking about voter habits a lot. And if people have already
36:26made their minds up before they even see a campaign or if their mind's made when they walk
36:30in to put their vote down, do you think campaigns make a huge difference? And it's a shame perhaps
36:37the Conservatives didn't kick those into gear as much?
36:40I don't think that they make a difference. Yeah, absolutely. But for a lot of people,
36:46the decision would have been made beforehand. So it is about those particular numbers,
36:51which do then actually affect the overall outcome. But really, is there that much more
36:55that could have done? I don't think so. Yeah, it's all about visibility and presence,
37:01isn't it? Rather than that sort of detailed manifesto.
37:03And that visibility and presence was felt by Sarah Davey, for sure, across the whole country.
37:09Here in Kent as well, we had our reporter, Oliver, doing an obstacle course with him
37:15near Bewater. So do you think that those stunts work?
37:19Oh, goodness. I've been mulling that over. In some ways, it's so odd that he's been doing
37:27that kind of thing that people will remember him, who might never have heard of him before.
37:33They might have thought he was a bit weird doing these kind of stunts. But on the other hand,
37:38it brings some kind of...
37:41So I think we're going to go to some live pictures now. It's the first
37:45candidate that we've seen at Medway Park. I think we've seen that. There he is,
37:49Raymond Chissie, doing the rounds. I think he's with Rizvi Raboof there, the reform candidate,
37:53I think, if my eyes don't deceive me. I haven't got my glasses on. He's set to lose the Gillingham
37:59and Raynham seat. But there he is, turning out the first one to arrive, almost two hours into
38:05the count. Paul, are you surprised that others haven't arrived?
38:09Well, I mean, there's not much to do really at this stage of the proceedings. I mean,
38:15they're obviously checking that voting forms are validated properly and put in the right
38:20bundles and so forth. He may just be there because he's bored sitting around at home,
38:25and maybe he's got a few football jerseys left over from his bargain box to distribute to his
38:31colleagues.
38:32We have been seeing that. Patrick, do you think it makes a difference, do you think,
38:36when we're thinking about visibility as well, of candidates turning up to these things? We'll talk
38:40about visibility on the streets and things, but visibility at the counts, I suppose,
38:44that the votes are done by then. But is it important that they're there? He's on our TV
38:48first. He's the first candidate to be with us.
38:50Well, it's nice to have him there, absolutely. I mean, we can talk about it, but I think it's
38:55very much an individual decision. I don't think it's somewhere you need to be, especially this
39:02early. But, you know, exactly what's the alternative, sitting around at home, waiting all
39:06night? Why not?
39:09George Perfect there as well, focusing on the front. We had him earlier in the show
39:13with Rob as well. Now, looking, Conservative, seven seats, 11 for Labour. Those are the
39:21Kent exit polls. How many of them do you think are going to stay that way? What could be
39:26swayed?
39:29Tunbridge Wells is the one that I think might change. I'm not quite so confident on that
39:36one. I think that may actually go Lib Dem.
39:38Tunbridge Wells has been a big fight over Tunbridge Wells between the Liberal Democrats.
39:45Are you surprised to see that that hasn't been affected?
39:49No, I'm not surprised in some ways because there was an attempt to encourage tactical
39:55voting from the Dems who wanted to get Labour support. Labour didn't want to engage in
40:03tactical voting. So that could have been the difference between winning and losing. But
40:08as Patrick says, we don't know yet. But my suspicion is that the Lib Dems have fallen
40:14short again. Ed Davey made one visit and no more. And I thought that was slightly odd
40:22because, you know, for most target seats for the Lib Dems, the in play seats, you know,
40:27VIP visits are quite common. But he didn't come back to Kent. And I think that was maybe
40:34an indicator that there were other battles to be had elsewhere.
40:37Can I just ask, do you think that tactical voting actually works? Do you think it actually
40:42has an effect? Because I'm very sceptical that it works in any way whatsoever.
40:46Well, there are so many websites and apps that advocate tactical voting that there may
40:52be something in it. Otherwise, why would people take notice of them? I don't think it's
41:00a necessarily decisive factor, but it may help some candidates from different parties
41:07over the line. I just think it's a good way to make some money if you're an organisation
41:11trying to raise funds. Well, there is that, yes.
41:14It's an interesting discussion for sure. I think we're going to head over just at the
41:19stroke of midnight back to our Medway Park studio with Rob and some guests he's got there.
41:26Rob, it is now Friday morning almost. Five seconds to go.
41:32You've got a kind of New Year vibe to it, isn't it? I feel like I should be like
41:37George Holland with balloons coming down or something. Yes. Happy Friday, everybody.
41:41Welcome back to Medway Park. I'm Rob Bailey. I'm joined now by Stephen Keevil, a journalist
41:46with Local Authority, a Medway-based community news organisation. And Robert Boddy, the local
41:52democracy reporter in Kent, is also still with me. Stephen, we've just seen Raymond
41:57Chisholm turning up, the first of our candidates arriving here. Do you think he knew that the
42:04writing was on the wall for this exit poll, that he was likely to lose his seat?
42:08I think so. I think when you look at the national picture, it was always going to be a challenge
42:14at the best of times, and this is not the best of times. You've also got to take into
42:17account that Medway, Gillian Moranian was part of that, is a bellwether. And so when it has been
42:24conservative, that majority has been strong. So it will take a lot to turn over. So you've
42:29always got to act as if it won't happen. But the whole campaign, it's been hard to see why it
42:35wouldn't. It's an interesting thing with Medway, isn't it? Obviously, it was all red in 1997
42:42when the political mood shifted in the country during the Cameron years, and we saw the rise
42:47of UKIP. Of course, we got one of the very few UKIP MPs there were here. The one sense in which
42:52we might not be a bellwether is that reform don't seem to have made that much of an impact here,
42:57according to the polls at least. Robert, does that surprise you?
43:00Yeah, it does. I mean, maybe less so with sort of Chatham and Aylesford and Gillingham and Raynham.
43:05I did expect some sort of movement around Rochester and Strood, because as you say,
43:08it was previously a UKIP seat. I think I heard some talk about there being sort of, particularly
43:15out on the Who Peninsula, a big reform movement. But it doesn't seem like that's really surfaced,
43:20at least from what we've seen so far. No, it'll be interesting to see once we get
43:23those results through, the mark breakdown. I've been chatting already to Vince Maple,
43:27to George Perfect, the Medway council, kind of top politicians, about trying to get a little
43:33bit into how we can explain this result. You might have a better insight than anyone into this,
43:37Stephen. You've been running hustings across Medway all the way through this campaign.
43:41What do you think the really burning issues here in Medway were? What's forced Medway to go back
43:47red? Well, I think from that perspective, I think you would argue that actually,
43:53for a general election basis, there hasn't been any burning issues. The burning issues that there
43:58are locally that come up, and social media skews this. You can know how big an issue is,
44:03the Chatham docks, for example. But actually, in the general elections, it hasn't really come up
44:08at all. It hasn't really made an impact. And the things that have been talked about,
44:11so it is more that general vibe, mood, kind of the NHS, and the general fact that public services
44:19generally aren't working. And so it is that general feeling of, how are things better now
44:26than they were in 2010? And the struggle to identify any real positives there. You look at
44:32the River Medway and the quality of the water there. All of these things have kind of just
44:36mounted up into a feeling of, this isn't working. No matter how many times someone says they have a
44:42plan, things aren't working. And to go for another key word at the moment, they have gone for change.
44:49Absolutely, yes. And were there any specific issues that people were raising when you were
44:55giving people a chance to quiz the candidates? One of the things I should ask, actually,
44:59I mean, the Conservative candidates often were the people that weren't attending.
45:02Yes, so we did three hustings, one for each constituency. And just with the KMTV hustings,
45:08the Conservatives did not attend. And their reasoning was, we are busy campaigning,
45:13which the joke on the night was, well, the people that are here must be too lazy to campaign then,
45:17because they were there. And the argument could be made that they weren't there because they
45:23couldn't defend their platform, their program. For the questions on the night, again, it was
45:29everything you would expect. How are we going to improve GP waiting times? How are we going to
45:32improve the quality of the roads? How are we going to improve education? So it was those all-encompassing
45:39sort of vague things. I mean, my favorite question that probably came up across the three nights was,
45:43why would motorcyclists vote for you? That was a very kind of specific question that kind of took
45:49most of the candidates out. They were like, I don't know how to answer this one. No one
45:52was ready for it. It was amazing, again, reflecting the general election,
45:59Brexit didn't really come up at all in any sort of way. A lot of the culture issue stuff
46:02didn't really come up in any sort of meaningful way. It was the broad, generalized topics that
46:07you would expect to see. Have you seen the same kind of thing, Robert? Yeah, absolutely. I think,
46:12I mean, at the KMTV hustings, I think the very first question for the Rochester Institute one
46:16was basically all around sort of the morale of the country. And I think that's kind of the tone
46:21of it. It's a general sort of sense of, I mean, in one sense, you might say that the three Conservative
46:26MPs are just a victim of national movements. But I think, you know, so in that sense, yeah,
46:33it's not really been a very like, locally in Medway, a very sort of, this is the issue that
46:37everyone is, you know, they've put a foot wrong or something like that. It is just sort of a general
46:41sort of, we've had 14 years of the Conservatives and do we feel better? That's the key question.
46:45Do you feel better, you know, better off than you did 14 years ago? And for a lot of people,
46:48the answer is no. And that's why we're seeing the result we are. I think the other thing that
46:52were kind of a theme was this general question over how you can restore faith in public,
46:59you know, in Parliament, in the service, you know, how can we trust that you won't be corrupt?
47:05How can we trust that you will hold kind of surgeries that we, you know, it was all those
47:09sort of things that was clearly tempered by people's frustrations at their lack of access
47:15to the current MPs. Now, the current MPs could argue that they are, you know, busy and do those
47:20work. But this was what was coming through some of those questions. Obviously, your website
47:27focuses very, very tightly on Medway and particularly on holding Medway Council to
47:32account. I was talking to Vince Maple, the leader there earlier, about the fact that they kind of,
47:36they provided a dress rehearsal for this. They won Medway Council last year. We got a sense of
47:41what it's like when Labour come in and take over after a long period of Conservative rule here.
47:45What have you learned about Labour in that year that might help us understand a little bit about
47:49what's going to happen next now? Well, I think it's very much that fact that there were key
47:54members within the local party who were like, right, this is how we're going to do it, who kind
47:59of professionalised that sort of, if we want to win, we need to do it this way. And so they took
48:05that in terms of how they selected their candidates, which wards those candidates were going,
48:10and then they were very high focalised. They went, right, we need to win these wards to win the
48:14council. Let's not get distracted by here or there. This is all we need to win. And then they were
48:18very specific on that. You know, I caught up with Alan Jarrett, the former leader of the council,
48:23and he said something, he said to me, regarding the locals and generals, people don't vote for
48:29divided parties. And when you look at the difference between Labour and Conservatives,
48:33Labour are out supporting each other in a much more collegiate fashion, both nationally being
48:39supported, but also in that local sense. And Conservatives seem to seem more disparate.
48:44The idea that Gillingham and Rainham Conservatives could form a working union with
48:48Rochester and Strood Conservatives just seems an impossibility at this point. And that's affected
48:54them locally last year and will affect them nationally this year. Obviously, you cover
48:59local councils across the county, don't you, as part of your day job as a local democracy
49:04reporter. What do you think is going to make a difference now? Now that local councils across
49:09Kent, including the unitary here in Medway, Kent County Council, are going to be working with the
49:13Labour government. Is that going to have an immediate difference, do you think?
49:18I think certainly so. I mean, Ellie Reeves, the Deputy National Campaign Coordinator,
49:24was in Medway just the other day, and she mentioned something which had been sort of
49:27discussed as a possibility, which is multi-year financial settlements, which is a big thing that
49:33lots of councils have asked for, which, you know, to get into sort of the weeds of local council
49:38finances, at the moment they get one year's funding. And a lot of people, a lot of council
49:43leaders say this is a problem because you can't rely on, you know, we're going to fund these
49:47projects but we'll need money next year and all this sort of thing. Labour have said they're going
49:50to do multi-year funding projects. So from that sense, councils will get a longer sense of stability
49:56for whatever they want to do. So I think there are definitely, I think a lot of people have referred
50:01to Keir Starmer as sort of technocratic almost. He looks at sort of problem solving and less so
50:05about sort of cultural war issues and that sort of thing. And so I think we'll see a lot of changes
50:10like that sort of level of, you know, incremental changes that will make big differences on the
50:16ground at local council level. And in terms of kind of how that might affect people out there,
50:20do you think that that would then give councils the confidence they don't need to make
50:24panicky cuts to frontline services, those kinds of things? Absolutely, yeah. I think it's a case of,
50:28you know, say they want a health service, a local sort of health provision that's going to last for
50:33the next five years. At the moment, they'll say, right, well, we'll put it in place now and we'll
50:38hope that next time around we can, you know, get that funding award again or we'll find some other
50:42route for it or we'll find some way to monetise it in some way to fund it. With this longer term
50:47thing, they can say, you know, at least for this block of time, which is a bit longer, to get it
50:52up and running, get those sort of efficiencies running because, you know, starting these services
50:55can be very expensive up front. That will give them much more confidence, I think so. The other big
51:02thing that we might be talking about over the next five years affecting local councils in Kent
51:06and people's relationship with them will be devolution. We've already had a lot of conversations
51:11between Kent County Council and Medway Council about what that might look like should Kent
51:15have an elected mayor. The Conservatives have particular views about what devolution would
51:19look like. Those views are now, as far as we know, out the window. Do you think that we will be
51:24looking at a complete restructuring? Do you think we could have a mayor of Kent? I think there's,
51:28so there's an argument that from a financial point of view that changes need to happen. I think the
51:33idea of a Kent-wide mayor is currently completely off the table. I wouldn't expect to see anything
51:39about that come now in the next five years. Whether we see some move towards, kind of,
51:44there's been rumblings about maybe a unification between Medway, Nutri Authority and Gravesham,
51:49you know, because we've already got a connection in terms of certain services. So there's a
51:55possibility there. And again, it's that thing of parties sort of talk about these things and then
52:01they're in power and they don't want to give up the things that that entails. So there's certainly
52:06a benefit in terms of, you know, in terms of the costings, but whether that would improve services
52:11out in the peninsula is a different matter and whether that would solve housing crisis, you know,
52:16issues if, you know, in terms of are you sharing that burden or, you know, are the other housings
52:23not being built, you know, we don't have the answer to that at this point.
52:27What would be your take on the possibility of devolution?
52:30I mean, I know, obviously, locally here, Vince Maple, leader of Medway Council, is very against
52:35a Kent mayor. I think he does have quite a strong voice within, sort of, the local labour and
52:42has the ear of certain national figures. So possibly it could be a case of, you know, with a
52:47labour government, they could say, well, that was really sort of a Tory policy and it's not really
52:51something we're interested in. I think elsewhere in the country, there is an appetite for devolution.
52:56Where I'm from originally, North Lancashire is in the process of getting a mayor of its own,
53:01so, and Manchester loves their mayor, they're having a great time. So I think it's a case of
53:09local feeling about it. I think that's going to be a key element to it because, you know,
53:13if they did force a mayor on Kent when a lot of people don't want it, it's not going to be
53:17very popular. You'll see low turnouts in mayoral elections and that's never good.
53:23We might come back to that in a second, but for now, we have Alfie Armstrong over in Gravesham
53:27who can give us an update on how the county's going there.
53:35It's very busy here in Gravesham.
53:38Over here, we've had queues and queues of ballot boxes coming in and the sound here is just so
53:45loud. There's so many people out here counting the ballots. Actually, half of them have just
53:52gone on break. We've spoken to a couple of candidates, the Liberal Democrat and Greens,
53:57and they're saying they're not reacting until the votes start coming in. We've tried speaking
54:03until the votes start coming in. We've tried speaking to right-wing parties, Reform and
54:08Conservatives, but neither have anything to say to us at this time, wanting to wait until
54:15the results come in.
54:25Okay, now we're going to take a short look at the election issues and the campaign in Gravesend.
54:31Just under a month to go until the general election, and voters of Gravesham say the
54:36cost of living, police and small boat crossings are the most imminent issues facing the constituency.
54:43But on the streets of Gravesend, voters don't seem to be agreeing on who they want to be their
54:48next MP. I think I'd rather vote for them because they haven't been in power for a long time.
54:55Since I came to Gravesend, I've been always choosing Labour.
55:01Well, I don't know who I'm going to be voting for. Definitely not the President, Prime Minister.
55:08Reform, as they call it. Yeah, why? Because that's what we need, is reform.
55:13I'm swaying towards the Conservatives, but I'm still a bit undecided.
55:19In Gravesend, the Borough Council is currently run by Labour,
55:23with Conservatives as the opposition and no other parties elected. And Lauren Sullivan,
55:28who's on the Borough and County Council, is now running as Labour's parliamentary candidate.
55:34It's about increasing the police presence. It's about tackling anti-social behaviour,
55:38and because it has a huge impact on people living here. We also need to get our NHS back on its
55:44feet. Talking about our education system, our youth work, our society is broken and we need
55:49to fix it. My priorities here in the town, in Gravesend, is about looking at the business rates.
55:55It's making a fairer system.
55:57This is a seat that's been held by the Conservatives since 2005. But now,
56:01according to the latest electoral calculus predictions,
56:04Labour could win the Gravesend seat come the next general election with 46% of the votes.
56:10But of course, that's just a prediction. It's not 100% accurate,
56:13and there are many more candidates wanting to be the next MP here.
56:16So I would be really lobbying for increasing funding for the local area, for services
56:22supporting young people. I really think that the health service, the NHS really needs more
56:27protecting and more support. I think Gravesend would really benefit from additional support
56:32and investment.
56:33My priorities will focus on improving access to GP practices, that we restore the funding
56:41for education. We make sure that we train enough teachers to deal with some of those
56:48target subjects. And we have opportunities for young people for higher education and apprenticeships.
56:55All parliamentary candidates in Gravesend were contacted,
56:59but not all were available for interview.
57:01Just a few weeks left now until decision time. Time to decide who you want the next
57:05Prime Minister to be, but also who you want representing you in your constituency.
57:10Sophia Aitken for KMTV in Gravesend.