Kamala Harris 7State Strategy for a LANDSLIDE 2024 Electoral Victory
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00:00Hello, everyone. It's Collins from Discover Politics. Today, we'll discuss about the
00:072024 presidential campaign and Kamala Harris' seven-state road to a landslide, or possible
00:13landslide, in the 2024 election, producing a blue wave down the ballot on the presidential
00:18level, as well as the Senate and House contests. So, as I have stated, Kamala Harris has a
00:23seven-state route to victory, and numerous measures have now demonstrated that this is
00:28doable. For example, the 538 election projection
00:32shows a very tight race. They give Kamala Harris a 60% probability of winning overall.
00:39In Wisconsin, there is now a 61% probability. In Michigan, 64%. It varies. By state, Harris
00:48has a 58% probability in Pennsylvania. That is, you know, really low. It is a lot more
00:54than 42, but there is still a very low likelihood. Arizona is exactly 50-50ths. Georgia is precisely
01:0250-50ths. North Carolina is exactly 50-50ths. What are the chances of that?
01:08So, obviously, Kamala Harris has a 50-50 probability of winning in each of these states. But there
01:14are two more states that are important on her way to an electoral landslide of almost
01:19400 electoral votes, right? By today's standards, that is an electoral landslide with a total
01:25of 70 electoral votes from two states, Texas and Florida.
01:30The 538 estimate shows Kamala Harris has a 26% likelihood of winning Texas and a 32%
01:37chance of winning Florida. Obviously, it pales in comparison to Trump's 74% and 68% chances
01:44in Texas and Florida, respectively, but more than a 1 in 4 possibility and nearly a 1 in
01:513 chance in Florida are not to be dismissed. It is very probable that both Florida and
01:56Texas will vote Democratic. That's for definite. I also prepared a whole film about and Selzer,
02:02the most accurate pollster in the country. They presently only poll the state of Iowa,
02:07and they do so seldom due to the high cost of the procedure, as seen by their accuracy.
02:12And Donald Trump is leading Iowa. Of course, it's a Republican state, but the margin
02:17is just 47 to 43. He leads by barely 4%. Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden by 8.2 points in
02:25Iowa during the 2020 presidential election. So, according to and Selzer, if the election
02:31were conducted today, or when this survey was issued, the outcome would be within a
02:35point of what they indicate in their poll. I mean, they are always right on. Then, Donald
02:41Trump would plummet from 8% in 2020, an 8% margin, to 4% just 4 years later. And this
02:47is in Iowa, a state that is predominantly rural, white, moderate to conservative, and
02:53right-leaning. When Joe Biden returned to the contest, I didn't anticipate Kamala
02:57Harris to make such significant gains over him in this state. I didn't believe she'd
03:02do it because she's more progressive than Joe Biden, an African-American and Asian-American
03:07woman, and a history-making presidential candidate. I doubted she'd perform well
03:11in Iowa, which is predominantly white, conservative, and Christian. Now, if she gains 4% from Biden's
03:192020 performance in Iowa, think how the trends will play out in the other battleground states.
03:24So, looking at this 2024 map, Kamala Harris will absolutely win every single state that
03:30Joe Biden won by a safe margin. Because, in a landslide scenario, she is sort of getting,
03:35you know, only exceeding Joe Biden's margins, that's for sure, because 2020 was absolutely
03:41not a landslide for him. Now, Donald Trump has some as well, where Kamala Harris will
03:46be unable to break it, even if she gains, say, 4 points overall, but a good number of
03:51safe states will become probable states beginning in 2022. That's Kansas, Missouri, Montana,
03:58and South Carolina, which was expected, but should be incredibly troubling for the Trump
04:02campaign, as well as Alaska, which is practically a lean state. So, for Kamala Harris, she also
04:09wins Colorado by a safe margin, and then you have a batch of these Democratic states, you
04:14know, that are extremely Democratic that aren't going to go to Republicans in the next decade,
04:18but they're not quite safe margins for Democrats, and you might notice, you know, even if Kamala
04:23Harris gains 4 or more points nationwide, a lot of them, she won't be able to crack.
04:28I would place Virginia in the safe category, but Minnesota, New Mexico, these somewhat
04:33less Democratic states, New Hampshire, and Maine would be well within the probable classification,
04:39like deep into the Democratic column, but not quite safe margins. Again, the 7 state
04:44route to win, not just a victory, but to a landslide, is what we will focus on in this
04:49video, but it also implies that many of these extremely Republican states will become competitive.
04:55Nebraska's first is expected, but you have Iowa, of course. According to the Ann Selzer
05:00survey, Iowa is going to Donald Trump by a 4 point lead, which is a lean margin. It would
05:06be the same in Ohio. Ohio voted for Donald Trump by 8 points. If Iowa becomes 4 points
05:12more Democratic, we should expect Ohio, especially in a landslide, to be somewhere in that range.
05:18Obviously, this is not a forecast. This is not a forecast, and I want to make that very
05:23clear. So now we're nearing Maine's second, which would likewise be lean, most certainly
05:29down in 2020, but we're getting close to 7 states. But there are two more that, in
05:34this landslide scenario, would not be extremely competitive, so we wouldn't call them part
05:39of her 7 state road to a landslide. That is Michigan. That is Nevada. Wisconsin, Michigan,
05:46Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada were the 7 key battleground states
05:52that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, with Nevada and Michigan having the largest margins. Michigan
05:58won by 2.8 points, which is a really large margin, while Nevada won by 2.4. So, if she
06:05is winning Texas and Florida, and she is trending Texas 6 points to the left, then if she is
06:10trending 3 points to the left in Nevada and 2.5 points to the left in Michigan, then they
06:15are already likely to win by a margin. So, I'm not claiming she would push these states
06:206 points to the left, because Texas is a stronger left-leaning state than some of these
06:24other battlegrounds, but they would still fall well within the lean margin classification.
06:29In this scenario, Kamala Harris would likely win both of these states by a significant
06:34margin. Next up, we have the lean states, and there are quite a few. Of course, Joe
06:39Biden won several battleground states in the 2020 election. He only lost one of the 7,
06:45North Carolina. So, if Kamala Harris makes significant gains in all of these states,
06:51more than just 0.1% or 0.2%, if she gains by at least 2 or 3 points, even states that
06:57went to Biden by less than a percentage point in the 2020 election, such as Georgia, Arizona,
07:02and Wisconsin, would be lean. They'd be virtually certainly likely. There's one more, of course,
07:08Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania voted for Joe Biden by 1.2%, and Kamala Harris has the potential
07:14to significantly surpass expectations in the state, outside of the landslide scenario.
07:20So, for example, suburbs are a hot subject in the 2020 election, as they are in many
07:25other states. Of course, from 2016 to 2020, the suburbs in Pennsylvania changed the most
07:32toward Joe Biden and Democrats, from Hillary vs. Trump in 2016 to Biden vs. Trump in 2020.
07:39Chester County, Pennsylvania, voted for Hillary Clinton by 9.5% in 2016. Four years later,
07:47they would support Joe Biden by 17.1%. So, it trended 7.6% to the left, but the state
07:54as a whole trended just roughly 2 points to the left. And we'll get to Texas. Texas
07:59is an even better example since the effects are so obvious. But we'll get to that when
08:04we discuss how leftward the state is heading. But Pennsylvanians have always disliked Donald
08:09Trump, right? In 2012, they voted for Mitt Romney in Chester County, despite Obama's
08:155% victory in the state. And four years later, when the entire state switched red, Chester
08:21County flipped blue, and not by a little margin. It flipped blue by 10 points. So, suburbia
08:27despised Donald Trump, and I believe they demonstrated this in 2016, much more so in
08:332020, and I believe Donald Trump is a worse candidate than ever before, and that the suburbs
08:38will demonstrate this on a larger scale in 2024. So, again, this is not a forecast,
08:44but it does demonstrate that there is a strong possibility for Kamala Harris to make major
08:48gains in several of these states. Arizona, particularly the Maricopa County area, has
08:54a large number of suburbs. The suburbs around Atlanta, Georgia, are also very large. These
09:00are crucial. It's something you should keep an eye on, right? Examine these key voter
09:05demographics to determine how they vote. It is critical to look at it and comprehend
09:10the prospect of a Kamala Harris landslide. Donald Trump is simply not the same candidate
09:15he used to be. So, we go on to our final three states, all of which voted Republican in the
09:212020 election. North Carolina by 1.3, Florida by 3.4, and Texas by 5.6. North Carolina should
09:30not come as a surprise. North Carolina would be required in this seven-state landslide,
09:35and it would very certainly win by a slim margin. I mean, I currently believe that North
09:40Carolina will vote Democratic by a slim margin, particularly in light of the recent Mark Robinson
09:46affair. However, this is a state that is significantly going to the left, and with Kamala Harris
09:52gaining on Joe Biden's numbers countrywide, given how close it was in 2020, Kamala Harris
09:57should have little issue winning North Carolina in this scenario. We now have Florida and
10:02Texas. Florida and Texas are vitally crucial. And you may have noted that we scarcely mention
10:08the Rust Belt in relation to these final three states, as well as nearly all of the battleground
10:13states in general. We are talking a lot more about the Sun Belt, and there is where Kamala
10:18Harris would be able to take this road to a landslide. The Sun Belt, more than any other
10:23area in the country, is vital to a potential Harris landslide of about 400 electoral votes.
10:29That is the most significant region. So, whether Kamala Harris wins by a landslide or a solid
10:35margin in the Electoral College, minority voters will play a significant role. So that's
10:40African Americans in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and maybe Florida, which are really
10:45crucial. Of course, Latino voters in Texas and Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and even North
10:52Carolina will still vote for Kamala Harris, despite the fact that the Rust Belt is mainly
10:57dominated by whites. However, the Rust Belt is one factor in achieving that landslide.
11:03She would narrowly win the election with just the Rust Belt. Sure. Of course, she needs
11:08it for her landslide to 270, but those states are already under her belt. I bet she has
11:14them all in the back. But what's more significant are these Sun Belt states, where if Hillary
11:19can turn out minority voters in historic record proportions, surpassing Obama's 2008
11:24statistics, a landslide of about 400 electoral votes is feasible. Of course, this applies
11:30to Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, all of which are Sun Belt
11:37states with a wide range of cultures. And it's Kamala Harris. Again, she is, and she
11:43will be the first African American female president. In terms of demography, she is
11:48a historic presidential contender in the making. So it is likely that these African
11:52American Latino voters were not very driven to vote in 2020, but they may be in 2024.
11:59So as 538 suggests in their model, Kamala Harris has a strong chance of winning these
12:05two states. There is a possibility for Kamala Harris in Texas, but in Florida, it would
12:10be a close race. That shouldn't be that surprising. Yes, it is a trending state, but
12:16Kamala Harris has the potential to make a late push there. But Texas is more essential.
12:21Texas has more electoral votes and is more Republican, correct? 5.6 is significant. She
12:28would have to win by around 6% more than Biden 2020 in Texas. That's what she'd have to
12:33accomplish in Texas, which would be challenging. But consider the margins here. As I mentioned,
12:39Dallas is Texas's largest and most populous city. And you can see that the suburbs around
12:45Texas are going dramatically to the left. I mean, go back to 2012. Mitt Romney received
12:5115.7% of Tarrant County's vote. For years later, they would vote 4, but Trump would
12:57win by 8.6 points. That is a 7 point swing right there. 4 years later, in 2020, Biden
13:04won by 0.2, 8 to 0.2. It was trending around 9 points to the left at the time. So, for
13:12example, in Collin County in 2012, you had Romney plus 31. That's completely ridiculous.
13:19Romney plus 31, then Trump plus 16. So it decreased by, hmm, around 15 points, or trended
13:2615 points to the left, even with Hillary, a poor candidate. Then in 2020, it was Trump
13:32plus 4. If there is another rise in voting turnout, simply look at these figures. Eventually,
13:39Texas will get there, right? Texas will get there, whether it takes a decade, two decades,
13:45four years, or this time around. So, with this rise in voter turnout, Kamala Harris
13:50has a chance to win the state of Texas. She actually does. She would just have to increase
13:56voter participation in the Dallas suburbs, but equally essential, persuade Latino voters
14:01to turn out in the Rio Grande Valley and put them in the Democratic column. They are not
14:05going to be all Democratic voters. That voter demography has been shifting toward the right.
14:11Kamala Harris needs to get it back. So, this is the seven-state road to an electoral
14:16landslide. Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. I'm sorry,
14:24Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not, but Michigan and Nevada are likely. So, there it is. 389,149.
14:34Over 400 electoral votes, an incredible landslide. So, thank you for viewing this video. If you
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