Menyikapi Kondisi Pasar Saham yang Naik Signifikan
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (09/09/2024) dengan Tema Menyikapi Kondisi Pasar Saham yang Naik Signifikan."
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00:00The following are some global economic agendas that should be taken into consideration.
00:04Among them, there is the US inflation expectancy.
00:07Then, there is the BTF interest rate from France.
00:12Next, there is the Swiss deficit reserve.
00:17And some other data, such as domestic products from Japan.
00:22In the country itself, there is information about the Consumer Trust Index.
00:27The agenda that should be taken into consideration this weekend is the general meeting of shareholders of a number of emitters,
00:34especially MASB.
00:36Then, there is also GMTD, the payment of deposit from BVIC, and the sum of interim cash dividends from ITMG.
00:45An update from the ASEAN exchange.
00:46You can see all the details on the Pomyarsa screen,
00:49where this morning, Nikkei Japan, Kospi South Korea, and then Hang Seng Hong Kong
00:57Pomyarsa
01:01Compact is in a negative territory, Pomyarsa, at the beginning of the week,
01:05especially for Nikkei, which has weakened by 2.88% or almost 3%,
01:10Shared Times fell by 0.27%,
01:12Kospi South Korea fell by 1.35%,
01:15and Hang Seng Hong Kong fell by 0.07%.
01:18Pomyarsa
01:23And this morning, Pomyarsa, we will discuss through a video conference with Mr. Gembong Suwito,
01:27Director of Education and Investment from Salmology.
01:30Mr. Gembong, good morning.
01:32Hello, good morning.
01:34Good morning, Indonesia.
01:35Good morning. Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Gembong.
01:38Okay, let's talk about Indonesia.
01:41Our capital market is at its highest level, at around Rp7,700.
01:46And the same goes for the Rupiah, which was strong at Rp15,300 yesterday.
01:50What should be done in the midst of the market conditions at its highest level, Mr. Gembong?
01:57Okay, if we talk about the market,
01:59this year's ISE is an anomaly.
02:03Of the 939 emitters in the stock market,
02:08let's assume that in terms of market cap, there are 20 major companies,
02:128 of which are supported by a conglomerate or a group of major companies.
02:17We disclaim all of them,
02:19such as Brand, DBA, Aman, BIA, DSSR.
02:22And actually, the driver of the market or IISK this year is an anomaly,
02:28that is, the conglomeration does not determine the value of the IISK actually.
02:32So what makes it rise, yesterday there was a break high at Rp7,700, Rp5,400,
02:38that is based on the fact that it is still supported by a conglomeration,
02:42not from the approach of blue chips in general,
02:46or usually historically like that,
02:49usually movements such as Telkom, Astra, or BBBank,
02:52have already made a significant increase.
02:54It is precisely the rise of Samsung conglomeration.
02:56If it is supported by Samsung conglomeration, not blue chips,
03:00what is the difference, sir?
03:03If we talk about blue chips,
03:05then in the last 10 years,
03:07the market movement in terms of liquidity and business traffic has been quite famous.
03:14For example, all big economy,
03:16for example BBBank, plus Astra, Telkom,
03:19it has become a foundation.
03:21But this year there is an anomaly,
03:24when the brand enters, the security enters,
03:26then SSA is what makes the market of IISK reach the highest level so far.
03:34If that is repeated, maybe IISK is still in the range of Rp7,300-Rp7,200.
03:40It means that a very healthy market, in your opinion,
03:43if it experiences an increase, it should be supported by blue chips,
03:46which has been known to have a track record for maybe 10 years.
03:51At least not, it should be like that.
03:53Correct.
03:54Okay. So in the current market conditions,
03:56which you said earlier is more supported by the conglomeration,
03:59this must look at the value, growth, or momentum.
04:02Well, this will return to each individual player in the capital market,
04:08what is the strategic or suitable.
04:11Because if we talk about momentum,
04:13it is indeed in the conglomeration,
04:16even though in terms of valuation, for example, it is very high.
04:21For example, the best practice in the market,
04:23if we talk about valuation, the method used is usually relative valuation,
04:27with an increase per BBV.
04:29Per standard, for example, 10-15,
04:31reduce the BBV by 2 or 1, that's valuation.
04:36But if we talk about momentum,
04:38the pair can be 500, the BBV can be 100,
04:42it's not max.
04:44So it will return to the strategy used,
04:47what method is used, what is suitable.
04:50If Mr. Gembong, what is suitable?
04:52Yes, for me, it's usually specific to value investing,
04:58related to valuation, we talk about blue chain,
05:03in LQ45, IDX80, that's my specialty.
05:06Okay, so if asked, what is the recommendation analysis like?
05:11More screening of liquid 45 shares?
05:14Yes, and IDX80,
05:17that's usually what I've been using for the last 3 years as my universal investment.
05:22Okay, if we talk about market sentiment,
05:24what is your concern?
05:26Let's go to the country first, is there anything, Mr. Gembong?
05:29Okay, let's talk about the world market first,
05:31because that's the key block or the center of the global market.
05:35Okay, at the moment,
05:37everyone will focus on the American side.
05:41Yesterday, Friday,
05:43the release of non-fund payroll data,
05:45it was indeed the last 4 months,
05:47the energy of non-fund payroll opening in the US was not as expected,
05:52below the expectation.
05:54That's in the labor sector.
05:56That's what makes,
05:58from the market side,
06:00hoping that the Fed will lower the winning rate.
06:04This Fed, on the 18th, 19th, September 1st,
06:08it will hold a meeting,
06:10there are already signs,
06:12that the time has come.
06:16What does it mean?
06:17Lowering the winning rate,
06:19the winning rate is lowered,
06:21whether it's 50 basis or 0.5,
06:24or 25 basis.
06:26If, for example, at 25 basis,
06:29it's already priced in,
06:31but if it's extreme, at 50 basis or 0.5,
06:34it will be a surprise for the market,
06:36and it will be a very positive catalyst for the market.
06:39So, that's what is currently the main focus,
06:43related to the sentiment about the Fed itself.
06:45But looking at the non-fund payroll data,
06:47which made the US market
06:51tend to collapse last Friday,
06:53is there a possibility,
06:55maybe this flower breed,
06:57the cut will not be too significant,
06:59maybe only 25 basis points?
07:01True.
07:02If we talk about the market,
07:04the consensus is roughly at 25 basis points,
07:07that's the first step.
07:09Later, it will be seen again,
07:11or it will be followed again,
07:12usually in November,
07:13or the December basis is November.
07:15So, if now, for example, at 25 basis,
07:18it's normal,
07:19that's what we all hope for.
07:20But if it's extreme, at 50 basis,
07:22it will be surprising.
07:23So, the Fed will be quite aggressive
07:25when it comes to the consensus.
07:26It shouldn't be.
07:27Why?
07:28Because if we talk about economic growth,
07:30it's still relatively good,
07:31their GDP,
07:32but it's inflation,
07:34this is inflation.
07:35We will see inflation next week,
07:37especially on the 12th, 13th.
07:39Last month's inflation was 2.9.
07:44This month's consensus is 2.6.
07:46The target is 2.
07:47This is an important indicator
07:49to determine how much the Fed
07:51will reduce the flower breed percentage.
07:55Okay.
07:56While waiting for a few more weeks,
07:58the decision from the Fed
08:00to cut the flower breed,
08:03what should be done by retail investors?
08:06If you said it's more suitable
08:08to look at IDX80, LQ45,
08:10there are a lot of options, right?
08:12We will go over it later, Mr. Gempo.
08:14We will go over it later.
08:15Mr. Mirsa, we will be back
08:16after the next news.
08:17Thank you again, Mr. Mirsa,
08:19and we are still discussing
08:21how to adapt to the market conditions
08:23that are getting higher,
08:24especially by the FOMC,
08:26which has reached the highest all-time high record
08:28last Friday,
08:29at IDR 7,754.
08:31Our Rupiah is also getting stronger
08:33at IDR 15,300.
08:35Earlier, Mr. Gempong,
08:37Mr. Gempong Suwito,
08:38Director of Education
08:39and also Investasi Sahamologi,
08:41said,
08:42look at the stocks
08:44that are included in the LQ45 index
08:46and IDX80.
08:48Well,
08:49what are the stocks like, Mr. Gempong?
08:51Are they all left to choose from,
08:54or what?
08:56Okay.
08:57So, on our side,
08:58we usually use three methods.
09:00First, we will look at the fundamentals,
09:02how it works,
09:04how it is evaluated,
09:05and the positive story
09:06or the positive prospect.
09:07That's the first.
09:08Then, the second,
09:09on the technical side,
09:10because we are a screener,
09:13based on technical best,
09:15especially in the technical area,
09:17there will be what is called
09:19fresh buy or buy signals.
09:21That's what we call it.
09:23And the third,
09:24it's about inflow and investment.
09:26So, we apply these three methods
09:28in the LQ45 or LQ80 index.
09:33Something like that.
09:34From there,
09:35to recommend the stock,
09:37if we are directly specific,
09:39what is usually asked is the stock pick.
09:41For today, what is it like?
09:43Okay.
09:44The first is,
09:45maybe it can be shown,
09:46one is on the CBO sector.
09:49The CBO sector here,
09:51from all CBO emitters,
09:53we recommend,
09:55even though it's not in the LQ45,
09:58but it's still very positive,
10:00PHB.
10:01PHB.
10:02Why?
10:03Because CBO has two drivers
10:05that are very positive.
10:06The first one is the policy
10:07for the future of decline
10:09without tax in CBO.
10:11That's good for the industry.
10:13The second,
10:14from the government policy,
10:17to use bioethanol more.
10:19So, the B35 program
10:21will be increased to B50.
10:24In addition,
10:25in the food sector,
10:27it will be one of the strong foundations.
10:29PHB.
10:30Why?
10:31At the level,
10:33the area is around 380 to 390,
10:37with a price target of around 850,
10:40and a stock loss of 750.
10:42That's the main one in the CBO sector.
10:44Okay.
10:45There are many in the CBO sector, right?
10:47There's AALI,
10:48then there's LCIB,
10:49and we know the price of CBO,
10:51yesterday,
10:52it's a global price.
10:54It experienced a significant increase,
10:56after a few days ago,
10:58it decreased,
10:59but it was repaid at the end of last week.
11:02Okay.
11:03Why more to TAPG?
11:05One, from the quality,
11:07from the plant side,
11:09if we talk about the CBO,
11:11a very productive age,
11:12from all,
11:13we want to focus on TAPG.
11:16So, the age of the palm is very young,
11:18very productive.
11:19Something like that.
11:20From the productivity side,
11:21it will be more interesting,
11:23compared to AALI.
11:25That's what I want to say.
11:26Okay. Because of TAPG.
11:27So, indeed,
11:28the sentiment,
11:29the two main sentiments,
11:31that move the market,
11:33there's a decrease in the plantation side,
11:37the first tax plantation,
11:39with CBO,
11:41and the B35 increase program,
11:43to B50.
11:44So, there's a high domestic demand.
11:46Okay.
11:47This is a positive for the sector,
11:49that's why, last week,
11:51almost all of the stocks,
11:54that CBO emits,
11:56have increased.
11:57Correct.
11:58So, indeed,
11:59the increase in CBO,
12:00is one of the TAPG.
12:01Because, indeed,
12:02from the quality and valuation side.
12:03Okay.
12:04TAPG,
12:05both in the 780-790 area,
12:07with the target price,
12:09850,
12:10stop loss,
12:11if it goes down,
12:12760.
12:13And,
12:14last weekend,
12:15two consecutive days,
12:16on the 5th,
12:17the increase is almost 6%.
12:19Then, on Friday, the 6th,
12:21the increase is almost 9%.
12:23In the psychological position,
12:24it's 800.
12:26So, you tend to buy on weakness,
12:27Mr. Gembong, right?
12:28Correct.
12:29I usually,
12:30always buy on weakness.
12:32So, I follow the price a little,
12:34after that,
12:35in terms of trend,
12:36the major trend is still very positive,
12:37still improving,
12:38but usually,
12:39we will buy on weakness.
12:41Okay.
12:42If we talk about the plantation sector,
12:44in the middle of the price,
12:45CPO commodities that are strengthening,
12:48TAPG is the choice of Mr. Gembong, right?
12:50Correct.
12:51Okay.