Analisis IHSG Pasca Catat Rekor Intraday
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Jumat (13/09/2024) dengan Tema Analisis IHSG Pasca Catat Rekor Intraday."
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00From the information on the POMI Arsha price index, let's move on to the economic agendas that should be considered.
00:05Among them, the US Federal Reserve in August,
00:09then the POMI Arsha from the European Union, industrial production,
00:12and also some other economic data from other countries, such as India,
00:16visa bans, and industrial production from Japan.
00:21Let's move on to the ME10 agenda.
00:26There is GEMS, which agendas the payment date of the interim cash dividend,
00:30then LPGI, the last day of the long nominal trade, or stock split.
00:38An update from the Asian Stock Exchange as the next POMI Arsha this morning.
00:42Nikkei Japan is expected to move in a positive territory,
00:46with strength reaching 0.37%, then Singapore's share time 0.09%.
00:53KOSPI, South Korea is down 0.03%.
00:56Hang Seng, Hong Kong is up 0.77%.
01:06Yes, POMI Arsha, in session 1 yesterday, the POMI Arsha index managed to touch or even break
01:11the new highest record at 7,800.
01:14However, POMI Arsha in the afternoon, the IHSG reversed, but the weakness was not too deep.
01:19It means that the IHSG position is still at the top level.
01:23And one of the sectors that attracted the attention of POMI Arsha yesterday was coal.
01:27This is what we will review together with our guest this morning,
01:31Mr. Raden Bagus Bima, the founder of Warkob Saham.
01:34Good morning, Mr. Raden.
01:38Yes, good morning.
01:40Good morning, thank you for joining us this morning.
01:42Let's go to the Saham Gabungan index first.
01:45POMI Arsha is not tired of trying to break the new highest level at 7,800.
01:50Session 1 has been achieved, but in the afternoon there was a slight reversal.
01:55Let's go to the IHSG first.
01:56What is the opportunity from your point of view and what is the target level?
02:04Yes, I think this is something very interesting.
02:07Almost every day, our IHSG always records the new highest level.
02:12We also hope that today, on Friday, at the end of the week,
02:16on Friday, I think there is still a good chance for our IHSG to record the new highest record again.
02:24Even until next week, while we wait for the results of the FED, the announcement from the Bunga tribe,
02:31I think our IHSG still has a strong momentum.
02:35Even up to 8,000, this is quite a lot.
02:40Analysts in the last month have upgraded several target levels for the IHSG,
02:48even up to 8,000.
02:51So I think 8,000 is a psychological level for the IHSG.
02:558,000 means it can be said that on this Friday afternoon,
02:59the IHSG has a chance to continue upgrading until the decision of the Bunga tribe, the FED, next week.
03:07Yes, that's right.
03:08So I think our best momentum to be able to take profit or sell can be seen next week,
03:15approaching the IHSG level at 8,000.
03:18Okay, wow.
03:19There is a chance for the IHSG to rise again to around 8,000.
03:26Okay.
03:28Commodities are generally performing and starting to rise again.
03:32For example, gold to copper.
03:34Which one do you think is strong enough to last?
03:38Yes, I think in terms of sustainability, I think gold is much stronger.
03:43But the sensitivity to stocks in our market,
03:47at this time, it tends to be copper.
03:50Actually, it doesn't just look at the commodities,
03:52because by the end of this year,
03:54some copper emitters will approach the interim dividend schedule.
04:00Like what happened yesterday, it was the ITMK.
04:02So I think it's much more interesting in the copper sector
04:06because there are other factors, including the interim dividend for the copper sector.
04:12Okay, it's more interesting in the copper sector.
04:14Speaking of copper,
04:16is it more of an interim sentiment,
04:19or is there also a commodity price factor?
04:22Or is it because of the added commodity interim makes it better than other commodities?
04:27That's right.
04:28So I think the two variables that affect the movement of the copper commodity at this time,
04:34moreover, copper has actually experienced a decline earlier than other sectors.
04:39And right now, if we compare it to other sectors,
04:43indeed, the position of copper is a bit in the middle.
04:47There are still no copper emitters that have reached the highest level yet.
04:52So maybe this can be an option.
04:54At least we can maintain or we can see this copper sector until the end of this year.
05:00It means that the chance of copper, compared to other commodities, to strengthen is quite large
05:05because of various sentiments.
05:07Among the commodity prices, it is indeed increasing
05:09because it has fallen, so the opportunity to rise is also quite large.
05:12Then the emitters, most of them are those who like to give quite significant dividends
05:17or are diligent in giving dividends.
05:19And maybe the substitution of natural gas from copper is also increasing.
05:23Okay, Adaro.
05:25Adaro yesterday strengthened significantly.
05:27It was above 10%, even 12% before it was finally closed,
05:31strengthening 9% in one day.
05:33What is your analysis that is the main trigger for this Adaro to be significant?
05:40Yes, I think this is one thing that is awaited by the market.
05:44So there is one of the emitters that has a corporate action
05:48that can affect the finance of the company.
05:53This is the moment where investors are waiting.
05:57Yesterday, this happened in Adaro,
06:00where it will indeed cause devastation, which in my opinion is also quite high.
06:06In fact, it can affect half of Adaro's finances.
06:11So this is a euphoria that in my opinion is very interesting in the market condition
06:18which has started to stagnate, has started to consolidate.
06:23There is an emitter that has a corporate action that can affect the market condition.
06:27Why did I say affect the market condition?
06:29Because Adaro's transaction value yesterday even reached 2 trillion.
06:34Then in terms of frequency, this is the top frequency yesterday,
06:38around 52 thousand transactions.
06:42So I think Adaro is the investor magnet yesterday
06:46and I hope today there will still be a continuation of strengthening in Adaro.
06:51And as we know, the sentiment in Adaro is not a short-term sentiment,
06:57but a long-term sentiment that can affect the price of the Adaro stock itself.
07:02A long-term sentiment, not a short-term sentiment.
07:05Okay, maybe I'll summarize a little.
07:07Adaro separates the coal business from selling Adaro Andalan Indonesia
07:10or AAI worth 2.45 billion US dollars or around 37.7 trillion rupiah.
07:18What is the positive impact on Adaro itself?
07:23Yes, I think this condition will benefit indirectly for stock investors,
07:29even though we still have to wait for the defestation mechanism
07:33that will be decided later in Europe on October 18th.
07:37But here there are quite a lot of speculations that have been evaluated by several analysts.
07:43In the short term, this will have a positive impact on investors
07:48who have become Adaro investors before.
07:51More to the investor who benefits from this defestation at the moment. Why?
07:58Yes, because the existing investor will benefit from fresh funds
08:05that will be processed later with a mechanism,
08:08which is one of the rumors circulating, with Rake issue.
08:11So I think this is one of the benefits that can be directly obtained by investors from Adaro.
08:18Okay, including RITA investors?
08:21Yes, this will affect all investors in Adaro.
08:27Okay, that's it for the corporation's action.
08:31We will follow it further, but there is a projection that this will not only have a short-term impact,
08:35but also a long-term impact.
08:36It will be investigated further, especially after the RUPS comes.
08:41This euphoria occurs because it is felt that it will benefit all existing investors in Adaro.
08:49If it's about dividends, in the RUPS later, do you think Adaro will discuss dividends?
08:55And historically, is Adaro diligent enough to share dividends?
09:05Yes, historically, it is quite consistent to share dividends at the end of the fourth quarter.
09:10At the end of the fourth quarter or on the first day at the beginning of the year.
09:13This has happened in the last few years by Adaro.
09:17So I think if this defestation process, or later in the RUPS results,
09:23continues as planned at the beginning,
09:26I think there will be a potential increase in the value of dividends from Adaro.
09:30Other than the fact that the energy from the financial side in 2023 compared to 2024 is still the same.
09:38It will even have better potential in 2024.
09:42Plus, there will be a potential for sharing special dividends,
09:47like the news that circulated recently.
09:50So I think from the point of view of interim dividends,
09:53even if the value is still the same,
09:55it means that the 2024 dividend will be much greater for Adaro.
10:01Okay, so there are a lot of positive sentiments in Adaro.
10:04There is the commodity price, then there is the action of the corporation,
10:09then dividends, and also the right issue plan.
10:12Now, what is the recommendation for Adaro after a 9% increase in trading yesterday?
10:18Yes, I think even yesterday's increase, which has been reached up to 15%,
10:24proves that investors are very concentrated in Adaro.
10:28If we have enough funds, I think we can buy in Adaro.
10:36Until later we wait for the RUPS process,
10:40even later we will see the results of the RUPS and also the implementation of the results of the RUPS.
10:46So I think if we buy Adaro at this time,
10:49we can defend Adaro's shares for the next few months.
10:53Okay, is there a target for Adaro at the current price of IDR 3,850?
10:58Is there a chance to reach what level?
11:01Yes, I think Adaro still has a chance to reach the level of IDR 4,200.
11:05IDR 4,200 is the closest level that I think is not too far.
11:10With the highest price, what happened in 2022 was IDR 4,250.
11:15It means that Adaro will approach the highest level in 2022, I think.
11:19IDR 4,250 is the highest level in the long run, right?
11:22Will it be tested again or bricked again?
11:24The trend will reverse and it's not interesting to buy when, in your opinion, it drops to what level?
11:31I think because yesterday's increase was quite significant,
11:36we have a stop-loss at around IDR 3,700 for Adaro.
11:41That's the recommendation for Kadar Pemirsa, which dropped by about 9% in trading yesterday.
11:47A little bit about Adaro, what phase is it in?
11:50The increase yesterday was quite significant,
11:52but in terms of trend, do you see the short and medium-term trend in the Arab market?
11:57Is the trend rising or what?
12:00Yes, I think the short and medium-term trend,
12:02if we look at the last year, the last year and a half,
12:07which means around 15 or 16 months,
12:09the position is uptrend.
12:10So I think if we look at the trend, it's still very good,
12:15whether it's short-term or medium-term, it's still an uptrend.
12:19Uptrend. Short-term, medium-term, still uptrend.
12:22Again, Pemirsa, the investment decision is entirely in your hands regarding this meeting.
12:28Recommendations and choices, we present Usai Jeddah.
12:31Stay with us in the market bus segment.
12:39Transcription by ESO. Translation by —