"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (25/09/2024) dengan Tema Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan."
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00:00The following are some global economic agendas, including the Trust of South Korean Consumers in September and the IHK Inti Bank of Japan.
00:15Next, from the United States, the sale of new houses and the inventory of crude oil.
00:21From the global economic agenda, we turn to the domestic emissions agenda.
00:26There is CNTX, which will direct RUPS, as well as IPCN and TRIN. Meanwhile, KOKA will also RUPS, as well as IKPM.
00:36Then there is BEF, Agencum, bonus share and DPS, cash dividend for EAST and ITMG, cash dividend payment.
00:46Those are the eight emissions agendas.
00:49Let's update the Asia Stock Exchange after the stimulus plan from China that hit the global stock market.
00:55What about the Asia Stock Exchange update this morning for Nikkei Japan, KOSPI South Korea, Hang Seng Hong Kong, Pemirsa, and Times Singapore?
01:06Mixed gender, where Nikkei Japan, Pemirsa, and Times Singapore fell by 0.11%, KOSPI rose by 0.13%, and Hang Seng Hong Kong fell by 3%.
01:24We are connected through video conference with Mr. Nafan Adjigusta, Senior Market Chartist, Mirai Asset Security Indonesia.
01:31Mr. Nafan, how are you?
01:34How are you, Mrs. Prisana? Good morning.
01:36Thank you, Mr. Nafan. Good morning.
01:38Let's start with global sentiment. There is a stimulus plan from China again for its economy, which involves property and direct stock, which is positively responded by the US and European Stock Exchanges.
01:54How far will this trigger the domestic stock market?
01:59Okay. Actually, this stimulus package from the Central Bank of China is something that we should appreciate.
02:12Because this step aims to optimize China's economic growth potential, which according to the IMF is practiced at 5% by 2024.
02:26Therefore, this stimulus package is needed.
02:29For example, a stimulus package in the form of a decrease in the number of Chinese flowers from China's own 7-Day Reverse Repurchase Rate.
02:40This is also related to the support of liquidity from the Chinese government through the Central Bank for the stock market in China itself.
02:50So that it can boost the performance of the index movement.
02:56Of course, this must be able to provide a positive domino effect in the short term. Hopefully, for the stock market in Asia region, especially in Indonesia.
03:11But this is in the short term, in my opinion.
03:14Because the Chinese stock market is still in a slow stage, if I'm not mistaken.
03:24So it's only natural that this stimulus package must be carried out by the Central Bank of China.
03:30Why don't you look at it in the short term?
03:32It is said that this support is expected to touch the property market to revive the economy that is surrounded by strong pressure of deflation.
03:41And is threatened to fail to reach this year's growth target.
03:44There is a strong deflation, then the economic growth target is likely to be threatened, not achieved.
03:50But you said this is only in the short term.
03:54Okay, because if I look at the strength of the index, for example, for ESG, it is relatively mixed to higher.
04:05And on the other hand, we also have to see how this stimulus can improve the macroeconomic performance in China itself.
04:20Because what China is facing is a problem like what you said.
04:25There is a deflation problem, then there is also a crisis of property in China itself.
04:32Then also how China can optimize economic growth by 5% in the end of this year.
04:40Indeed, all of these are steps that must be taken by China.
04:47Where, for example, if at the time of the stimulus provided by China in previous years,
04:52it was seen that it was still not able to get out of the delay in China's economic growth.
05:01So, in my opinion, investors are still waiting for the realization of the policy of China's central bank stimulus to advance its economy.
05:17And if later the result is, for example, this makes the market in the Asian region experience such significant strength.
05:28Indeed, this is something that should be appreciated.
05:32This creates euphoria.
05:34But if we look at it, it's like the stock market performance in the Japanese region,
05:39which was only not thin, but turned out to experience a correction.
05:43Even though there is actually Japanese macroeconomic data, such as SPPI.
05:49In the end, the results are in line with expectations.
05:54But this is not a high market impact for Japan itself.
05:59So, at the very least, hopefully this stimulus,
06:04we have to see how it can have a positive impact on the improvement of China's macroeconomic performance in China.
06:13Mr. Nafan, it means that at the moment, even if there is an increase, it is more like euphoria to welcome the stimulus plan.
06:19We have to see further whether the impact is effective or not.
06:22That's why you said this will only have a short-term impact.
06:26Well, if it does have a short-term impact, what opportunities can we take with the new stimulus plan for the Chinese economy?
06:37Okay, what I mentioned earlier is related to the realization of the results of the macroeconomic data of China itself.
06:50Hopefully, the pressure of deflation can be reduced.
06:54Then, on the other hand, we also see how the level of investment from China can happen in the future.
07:02Hopefully, the stimulus plan of the Chinese Central Bank will be implemented.
07:07Then, on the other hand, if we look at China's export performance,
07:12what is actually faced is trade fragmentation from other countries,
07:19such as Europe, the United States, which implements protectionism policies to prevent the entry of electronic goods from China,
07:28as well as electronic vehicles from China itself to enter those countries.
07:33Not to mention, for example, the fact that the deflation of the Bung Achuan ethnic group in the X-50 Basis Point
07:40has the potential to make the eyes of Wang Yuan appreciated and good,
07:46so how can we maximize the export potential if the eyes of Wang Yuan are strong.
07:55Mr. Nafan, what is your recommendation about investment in the capital market with the sentiments just now?
08:01Actually, if we look at it, the actors of the investors are more influenced by the euphoria of the FED.
08:10For example, if the FED implements the policy of aggressive deflation of the Bung Achuan ethnic group,
08:15that is the euphoria.
08:18But later, if the FED implements the policy of aggressive deflation of the Bung Achuan ethnic group in a moderate way,
08:24maybe we will experience a moderate increase in the growth of the index.
08:30Because indeed, from the perspective of Indonesia,
08:33our index growth rate throughout 2024 is 7,915.
08:407,915?
08:42Yes, 7,915.
08:44If today, ISG is at 7,778.
08:48Indeed, it touched the high at 7,711.
08:53It is almost close to the target of Miraset,
08:56but because it is related to the sentiment issued by the brand of the Russell Index,
09:04this makes ISG experience a 2% decrease.
09:09But the brand increased again yesterday, right?
09:11The brand increased again yesterday,
09:13but it has not yet been able to make ISG experience such a significant increase.
09:18So, what is the recommendation from Panavan?
09:20Okay.
09:21Still respect, if in a technical sense, we respect the price action.
09:27For example, some that are related to, for example, in terms of price action,
09:34we see that if the indicator is oversold,
09:38we can do a buy accumulation.
09:41Then on the other hand, if we see a trend that is experiencing an uptrend,
09:47for example, we see where there is a condition of a throwback,
09:53there is a potential for a technical rebound,
09:56so we can continue the uptrend,
09:57we can do a buy accumulation strategy.
10:00And on the other hand, in addition to technical,
10:02we also respect the prospect of emitting,
10:05as well as the potential of fundamental energy emitting,
10:08which will be in the future.
10:10Hopefully the results can be progressive,
10:12so we can advise the shareholders.
10:15Okay.
10:16What emitters meet these criteria,
10:18which are included in the recommendation of the election party,
10:20and how about the cigarette emitting parties
10:22who experienced significant strength yesterday,
10:25this is because there is a cigarette tax factor in 2025 that has not been increased.
10:30We will review it in the next segment.
10:32Mr. Mirza, stay with us in the market buzz segment.
10:35Still in touch through the video conference, Mr. Mirza,
10:37with Mr. Muhammad Nafan,
10:39Aji Gusna Senior, Chartis Market, Mirai Asset Securities Indonesia.
10:42Okay, Mr. Nafan, yesterday the latest information was that
10:45the government did not increase the cigarette tax in 2025
10:49and was responded by emitters
10:51related to tobacco or cigarettes that experienced a boost.
10:54You said earlier that the opportunity is for us to respect the shareholders
10:59who are uptrending.
11:01If the shareholders in this tobacco industry are uptrending,
11:05or what is the analysis from Mr. Nafan?
11:10Okay, here if I respect,
11:13for example, for WIM,
11:16WIM is actually downtrend but already limited.
11:21In daily chart,
11:23it starts to form major sideways
11:26sideways with major support at 880,
11:30while the major assistance is at level 1,285.
11:35So the distance here is quite wide.
11:40When the position is at the current price,
11:44it can be considered an accumulative buy,
11:49in my opinion.
11:50Because there is a potential for escalating.
11:55This is WIM.
11:56For WIM, yes.
11:57Meanwhile, if we look at GGRM,
12:00this GGRM has started to leave a minor downchannel.
12:05I admit that this is still in the major downtrend category,
12:09but in a minor way, from a minor downchannel,
12:12this has succeeded in passing through well.
12:14Yes, there has been a breakout.
12:18So this will definitely be followed by the formation of Golden Cross.
12:26I mean, the formation of Golden Cross from EMA20 and EMA60.
12:30So later for the upside target,
12:33it is at level 1,875 as a target price.
12:37Okay, this can actually be considered an accumulative buy
12:42because GGRM has started to bluish consolidation.
12:44Okay, then the next one here, the last one is HMSP.
12:49HMSP here, interestingly,
12:52there has been an appreciation.
12:56Previously, there was a significant depreciation
12:59because I saw that there was a brand factor
13:03during Friday that you experienced.
13:05There was a significant decrease in HMSP,
13:08but there was a rebound.
13:11But this rebound from HMSP has also succeeded
13:16in creating a breakout from a major downchannel,
13:20so HMSP must be able to close the resistance gap at 850.
13:26And that is the target price.
13:28So actually HMSP can maintain buy.
13:30Maintain buy, yes.
13:31So what is confirmed right now seems to be more to HMSP first,
13:35so if you want to buy right now,
13:37until you wait for the break again at 850,
13:40it will continue to increase more.
13:45The most important thing is that HMSP must be able to close the resistance gap,
13:48in my opinion, and that is a major exhaustion gap.
13:51So theoretically, there must be a potential for a faster gap closure.
13:58In what range is the gap?
14:00Okay, that was the target price at 850.
14:05So if you just want to buy,
14:07it is more confirmed if it is able to break at 850.
14:13Actually, if there is continuous strengthening,
14:18for example, in terms of price action,
14:20it will be strengthened above 850.
14:22So in my opinion, this must be able to maintain buy for HMSP.
14:28HMSP.
14:29But nevertheless, for now,
14:32the most realistic target price there must be able to close the gap first at 850.
14:40Okay, that's it.
14:41Analysis for some stocks related to the smoking tent.
14:48In general, it means that it can be accumulated, right?
14:51Yes, that's right.
14:52For WIN, GGRM, or HMSP, it should be able to maintain buy.
14:56Okay, let's take a look at the recommendation of the selected stocks.
14:59From Mr. Nafan, it is more complete as follows.
15:01Does this recommendation include stocks from the smoking industry?
15:07Let's take a look at the viewers.
15:09It doesn't look like it.
15:10The first one in Karya is recommended to be Accumulative Buy.
15:13Cepin is also Accumulative Buy.
15:15INTP and also Unilever.
15:18Okay, that's the recommendation of the stocks.
15:20What is the indicator of the selection of these four stocks?
15:24Mr. Nafan.
15:25Okay, the first one here is Adikarya.
15:28Adikarya is actually oversold.
15:30Second, it is an uptrend.
15:32This is an uptrend, but there was a throwback, right?
15:38So it was oversold.
15:40And this is what we can respect for Accumulative Buy.
15:44Moreover, Adikarya has tested the MA60 support
15:49and also the Fibonacci ratio, which is the Golden 1 version at 61.8%.
15:56It should be Accumulative Buy.
16:01Because in terms of price action, it supports.
16:04Moreover, the trend is potentially an uptrend.
16:07With the maximum target based on the Fibonacci extension line at 161.8%,
16:12which is at level 454.
16:15Okay, for the closest price target at level 302.
16:18While for the middle price target at level 344 based on the last high.
16:26Okay, that's the recommendation for Adikarya.
16:29Adikarya.
16:30Okay, let's move on to the next stock.
16:32What is it like?
16:34The second one is Sepin.
16:35Sepin has actually started a bullish consolidation.
16:39The important thing is that Sepin can still survive above MA20,
16:44even for the closest support, which is at level 4,900.
16:48With the next support at 4,760.
16:53If based on the Fibonacci retracement,
16:56Sepin will definitely test several resistance lines,
17:01which are at 5,100, 5,200, or even 5,300.
17:07With a potential offset of 3.7%, 5.7%, and 7.7%.
17:11At the current price, it's at 4,900.
17:16Yes, it can be at the current price.
17:20At the current price, yes.
17:21A bullish consolidation with a chance for further strengthening for Sepin.
17:26That's right.
17:27Okay, let's cross-check.
17:28Sepin this morning opened in the territory of Mas Ucenderung Stock None
17:33at the opening of session one this morning.
17:35While for the index, the combined price fell 0.56% at 7,732.
17:43For the opening and continuation of the recommendation of the selection,
17:46we will continue to discuss Usa Ijeda.
17:48Stay with us in the marketbuzz segment.
17:50Again, we will discuss with Mr. Nafan Adjigusa,
17:53Senior Market Chartist, Mirai Asset Security Indonesia.
17:56And Mr. Mirsa, we will continue with the recommendation of the selection.
17:59Just now, after we discussed Sepin and other stocks, Mr. Nafan,
18:05you also recommended the next stock, Unilever.
18:10Oh, Unilever.
18:11Okay, let's go straight to Unilever.
18:14Unilever actually forms a falling wedge pattern.
18:19In theory, there is a potential for a reversal trend for Unilever.
18:24Moreover, if we look at the RSI, there has been a positive divergence.
18:30Okay, so Unilever is trying to create a breakout.
18:36Hopefully, it can definitively break the highest level of the falling wedge pattern.
18:41So that, God willing, there can be a trend shift in the future.
18:45Okay, for the nearest target price, Unilever is at 2370.
18:50Then for the next target price, it will gradually close the gap.
18:56Actually, it's more like a runway gap of 2700.
18:59The potential offset can be up to 20% of the current price.
19:03Meanwhile, the highest target price, based on the target theory of the falling wedge pattern,
19:09is at level 3000 for Unilever.
19:11Okay, that's the recommendation for Unilever.
19:15Then, INTP.
19:17Well, INTP also has a falling wedge pattern, but this is more to the minor.
19:24Because, as you can see, INTP has started to be more visible from the previous major downtrend.
19:31So, for INTP, it should be able to break above resistance,
19:36as close as possible to the smallest limit of the falling wedge pattern,
19:39at around 700.
19:42Then it can break to 7150 as the second target price.
19:47This is based on the median.
19:49Then for the third target price, if there is a parallel channel,
19:55the highest limit is at 7700.
19:587700, but it has to reach 7000 first, and then 7150.
20:05This morning, INTP strengthened to 0.37% at around 6800.
20:10By current price, 6800?
20:12Yes, that's right. By current price.
20:15Okay, that's the recommendation from Mr. Nafan Pemirsa.
20:20Among them are Adhikarya, Cepin, INTP, and Unilever.
20:25Let's go to the opening of the first trading session this morning,
20:28where the index of joint stock prices is monitored to experience a weakening.
20:33Yes, that's right.
20:34A weakening of 0.73%, Mr. Nafan, at 7,718, down 59 points,
20:40with the exchange rate of US dollars, Mr. Pemirsa, strengthened at 15,094.
20:46Then, for the stock that became the gainers and also losers, Mr. Pemirsa,
20:50among them are stocks like MDKA.
20:53MDKA rose 1.71% at 2,380.
20:57PANI, PTRO, BRMS, Teens, BSBK, Pemirsa,
21:02those are the six top gainers based on value.
21:05Banking losers like BBRI, down 3%.
21:08Brand, down 2.77% at 7,025.
21:12Bank Mandiri, down 2.36% at 7,250.
21:16Telkom, also down 1.58% at 3,110.
21:20BBNI, down 2.56% at 5,650.
21:27And others like AMRT, BBTN, VILEM, WEIRG, and PNLF.
21:32Tips for the viewers at home, Mr. Nafan, in short.
21:37Well, this means that the euphoria of the policy of the money losers
21:43by aggressive defense is already there, 0.50 basis point.
21:47If we look at the 8-year average,
21:50the ESG synergy is majorly in the red zone.
21:54But in October, November, and December, it turned green.
21:59So we still apply the bioweakness strategy.
22:03Bioweakness.
22:04Because the euphoria related to the defeat has started to decrease.
22:09Yes.
22:10At least there is a positive sentiment that will develop next that we are waiting for.
22:15There is still hope.
22:17Mr. Nafan, thank you for sharing the information this morning.
22:21Best of luck to you. See you again.
22:23Thank you, Mr. Firsat. Thank you, Edek Channel.
22:26Good luck.
22:27Good luck.