"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (11/09/2024) dengan Tema Rekomendasi dan Analisis Saham Pilihan."
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00:00Thank you, Mr. Mirsa, for joining us again in the segment of the market based on the price index of joint stocks or IHSG.
00:06We are still not tired of recording the highest record in both intraday and trading closures.
00:12Yesterday's IHSG intraday close managed to reach a new highest level of 7,764.78,
00:20and closed at the new highest level of 7,761.38.
00:31The price index of joint stocks or IHSG closed at 0.76%,
00:35to the level of 7,761.38 at the end of the close trade,
00:40and is the highest level of closures in a long time.
00:43At least, IHSG also managed to reach the highest level of new intraday in a long time at 7,764.780.
00:50Eight sectoral indexes strengthen the support of IHSG.
00:53Among them, the sectoral index with the highest increase is the technology sector,
00:58the infrastructure sector increased by 1.63%,
01:01and the consumer goods primary sector increased by 0.95%.
01:05Meanwhile, the sectoral index that weakens the industrial sector decreased by 1.03%,
01:09the energy sector decreased by 0.09%,
01:12and the new goods sector decreased by 0.06%.
01:16Meanwhile, from the stock side, PT Baritur Renewables Energy Tbk or BRN,
01:20became the largest shareholder and reached 30 index points.
01:24PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero Tbk or BBRI reached 8.3 index points,
01:29and PT Goto Gojek Tokopedia Tbk or GOTO reached 6.7 index points.
01:36IHSG is in the process of optimizing its trading in the Central Bank of the United States,
01:41where the Fed will hold a meeting next week.
01:44The latest outlook, according to FedWatch CME,
01:47the market players are more optimistic that the Fed will close the flow with a soft landing
01:50of 25 basis points with 71% chance.
01:53The remaining 29% is likely to be a decrease of 50 basis points.
01:58On the other hand, investors are looking forward to the release of consumer price index data
02:01and producer price index data.
02:03The price index data will be the final data anticipated by investors
02:07before the Fed holds a meeting on September 18.
02:10From various sources for IHSG.
02:12IHSG
02:17That's IHSG, a joint stock index that is still bright,
02:21setting the highest new closing record.
02:24And we go to the economic agenda.
02:26First of all, we see there are several data releases from the United States.
02:31There is the consumer price index,
02:33or this is also the US inflation data that is the anticipation of global investors,
02:37including Indonesia as well.
02:39Then there are other data from the UK and China, as well as South Korea.
02:47Next, we go to the emission agenda.
02:50There is a general meeting of shareholders of the BSS emission,
02:54then PPGL, IATA, RUPSSU,
02:59continuous emission and ITMG at PSU Dividend Tunai Interim.
03:03We continue to update the Asian Stock Exchange.
03:09Nikkei Japan
03:12From the Asian Stock Exchange, Nikkei Japan's mixed gender exchange
03:15is expected to fall by 0.47%,
03:18Shred Times rose by 0.38%,
03:21and KOSPI Hang Seng also fell.
03:23Only Shred Times Singapore is expected to rise this morning
03:26from the Asian region compared to Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.
03:32And the exchange has been connected through video conference this morning.
03:35We will discuss with Juniko,
03:37a research analyst from MNC Securities.
03:39How are you, Raka?
03:41Hello, good morning.
03:42Hello, good morning. Thank you.
03:44Thank you for joining us this morning, Raka.
03:47Just now, there was information about IHSG
03:51which continues to record the new highest record,
03:54both in closing and intraday.
03:56And the closing is not far from the highest record in 7764,
04:02which was touched, but closed in 7761.
04:06It's actually very thin.
04:07What is the main reason why you see IHSG
04:10continue to record the new highest record?
04:13Okay, well, if we look at it from a helicopter view,
04:16from the global trend first, where we see
04:19and this global investor tends to value Indonesia
04:22as a fairly attractive emerging market,
04:24because it will later coincide with the existence of the flower species.
04:29So that later the liquidity that comes from the developed country
04:34will be anticipated to flow to emerging countries
04:37such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
04:39But investors value Indonesia as an advantage
04:43because it has the potential of a community cycle.
04:46Meanwhile, if we look at it,
04:48this is also reflected by a fairly strong net inflow,
04:52where if we look at yesterday,
04:54this net inflow has reached around 32 trillion,
04:59which is different from the position in June
05:02when the net sales was around 10 trillion.
05:05And if we look at it, IHSG's strength is also driven
05:08mainly by blue chip banking and other 7 magnificent.
05:12And it is also added to the fact that there is a USDA DR strength factor
05:16and so on,
05:17which makes investors seem eager to press in first.
05:21Okay, in the middle of the current share price index,
05:25which is rising,
05:28crude oil was corrected to a fairly deep level,
05:32to the lowest level in three years
05:34because there was a reduction in production from OPEC itself.
05:39How do you feel about the impact on the domestic market
05:43this morning, especially in energy stocks?
05:46Because in the world market itself,
05:47this energy sector is the weakening factor.
05:51Okay, if we look at the fall of crude oil globally,
05:55it can't be avoided.
05:57And it is because of the first one itself,
06:00where global demand is ensured to weaken next year.
06:05It can be seen from OPEC,
06:06which cuts the estimation for demand from 1.78 to 1.74.
06:14So this is anticipated as an investor step
06:18to sell or consider a barrage against oil.
06:22And if we look at next year,
06:25sorry, this year,
06:27where there will be an election from the US,
06:31and if we look at Donald Trump,
06:34it is ensured or has great potential to be the number one in the US.
06:40And if we look at Trump's policy before,
06:43Trump is more pro-production,
06:46so this is anticipated to lower the price of oil globally in the future.
06:55How about the impact?
06:57If we look at it,
06:58the impact is negative for stocks that have a proxy,
07:03especially in oil.
07:05But if we look at it,
07:06the positive impact will be greater,
07:09in line with the potential decrease in the price of BBM,
07:12which may have happened.
07:14However, if we look at last year,
07:16if I'm not mistaken, it was around Rp. 14,500,
07:18and the last one was around Rp. 12,900.
07:20So it can support the purchasing power.
07:24And later, the sector that will be benefited,
07:26such as the consumer sector,
07:28both cyclical and non-cyclical,
07:30and if we look at it later,
07:32this is also a weakening of oil,
07:35whether globally,
07:36will make the price of BBM cheaper.
07:38So later, the production price of plants
07:41will be cheaper,
07:44and the anticipation will be able to thicken the margin
07:48of emitting CPO or plantation.
07:51Okay.
07:52So, the main sentiment was that
07:54OPEC cut the prospect of demand,
07:56not the production.
07:57But what was cut was the prospect of demand,
07:59so it made the assumption that
08:02the price of oil tends to be less attractive
08:04in the future and go down.
08:05Okay.
08:06So don't focus on the negative impact,
08:08but focus on the sector that will be affected by the positive impact.
08:12Is that right, Mr. Rahka?
08:14Yes, that's right.
08:15Because if we look at it,
08:16the positive impact will be greater,
08:18and of course, it will affect the investors later.
08:23Okay.
08:24But if those who have invested in Samsung based on commodities
08:26that are closely related to the price of crude oil,
08:28what should be done?
08:30Okay.
08:31If we look at the last few trading days,
08:34there was a weakening,
08:36such as Acra and Medco.
08:39It seems that for the investors,
08:42they will be able to take the sector rotation.
08:45Especially if we look at the end of the year,
08:47there is usually a kind of withdrawal,
08:50especially from coal production stocks.
08:53So it seems that if we look at it,
08:55these investors can take a position
08:57on other rotation sector stocks
08:59that are more attractive,
09:01such as commodities,
09:02such as coal and nickel.
09:05But not right now, right?
09:07Yes.
09:08Because if we look at it,
09:09for ESG,
09:10at the beginning of September,
09:12it will still be suitable for the West side,
09:14until there is FOMC, the Fed.
09:16Okay.
09:17We will continue later.
09:18There is a brand that is always in demand,
09:20and it is said that because of these commodities,
09:23those who bring ESG fly high.
09:26But what about Blue Chips?
09:28Because Blue Chips doesn't seem to be as high
09:31as commodity stocks.
09:33So what's going on there?
09:34If that's the case,
09:35we will discuss the phenomenon later
09:37in the next session of Pemirsa Usai Jedah.
09:39Stay tuned on the marketbuzz segment.
09:41Thank you, Pemirsa,
09:42for coming back with us.
09:43We will continue our discussion
09:44with Mas Raka Juniko,
09:45Research Analyst at the Ministry of National Security.
09:47Mas Raka,
09:48related to the SAMGABUGAN price index
09:50that is currently on the highest record
09:52all the time,
09:54SAMSAM that wants to become a supporter
09:56is SAMSAM Conglomeration,
09:57specifically the brand.
09:58What needs to be discussed
10:01or is it possible to say that
10:03ESG is now flying high
10:04because of SAMSAM Conglomeration?
10:07Okay, if we look at it year-to-date,
10:10if we look at the data from IDS Statistics,
10:13this is for the increase
10:14or the one that drives the market year-to-date,
10:17if we look at it,
10:18there are brands,
10:19TPIA,
10:20Aman Mineral,
10:21DSSA,
10:22BMRI,
10:23and also BBCA.
10:24And if we look at it,
10:25there is a TPIA,
10:26Aman,
10:27and DSSA brand
10:28that is the proxy of the conglomeration.
10:30However, if we look at it,
10:32once again,
10:33as I mentioned before,
10:35foreign investors show that
10:39the potential of liquidity
10:41or SAMSAM that is experiencing an increase,
10:43especially SAMSAM Conglomeration,
10:45is dominated by the flow.
10:47And if we look at it,
10:48the flow that occurs at that time
10:50is in line with the position
10:52or potential of MSCI
10:55or other indexes
10:57such as FTSE.
10:58And if we look at it,
11:00this is what drives the increase in ISK.
11:04What is the concern here?
11:05If we look at it,
11:06the increase is quite significant.
11:09But back again,
11:11where SAMSAM Conglomeration
11:13has the potential to include MSCI
11:16and also FTSE.
11:17So it looks like this is anticipated
11:21or causes demand for future investors.
11:25Then what is the concern?
11:26Especially if we look at it,
11:28the interesting concern here is
11:30why isn't BlueJeep
11:32the driver for the index?
11:35Where if we look at it,
11:36the position of BMRI,
11:37BBC, or other big financials,
11:39has already been in the position
11:40of indexes like MSCI and FTSE.
11:44So it looks like this opens up investors
11:47to drive or cause demand
11:53or enthusiasm
11:54for SAMSAM Conglomeration
11:56which has the potential to include MSCI.
11:59Okay, so which one is more recommended right now?
12:02Do we follow SAMSAM Conglomeration
12:05or BlueJeep?
12:09Okay, if we look at it,
12:11SAMSAM Conglomeration
12:13has a significant increase.
12:15But if we look at it,
12:16it's usually based on sentiment.
12:19Where usually,
12:20if it hasn't reached demand yet
12:23or rebalancing,
12:24there is still a potential increase.
12:26Where this is related to historical
12:29or cycles in previous years.
12:32But if we, as investors,
12:34still evaluate the downside
12:37from dividends and so on,
12:41we still see BlueJeep
12:43as a benchmark or proxy.
12:46Okay, still more to BlueJeep.
12:49But I'm interested in the brand.
12:50First of all,
12:51this brand is still being targeted, right?
12:537% increase,
12:5440% increase in one month.
12:56What is your recommendation
12:57for this SAMSAM Conglomeration
12:59which can also be said
13:00to be included in BlueJeep?
13:03Okay, if we look at it,
13:05we cover the brand.
13:07But if we look at it,
13:08technically speaking,
13:10this brand was at its highest
13:12on May 17 this year.
13:16Its highest was 12,200.
13:18So it looks like
13:19if we look at the uptrend
13:20which is still consistent
13:21and the volume is still maintained,
13:23it looks like the price will try
13:25to test the resistance level
13:27at 12,200.
13:29If the level is successfully
13:30broken by the brand,
13:31then the brand will potentially
13:32return to test the next resistance
13:34even though the psychological
13:36is at 13,000.
13:37What is the strategy for the brand?
13:39If from you,
13:40are you interested in joining the brand?
13:42Even though you said earlier
13:44you didn't cover it,
13:45it means it's not interesting
13:46for you to invest, right?
13:48It's not less interesting,
13:50but if we look at it,
13:51there are some indexes
13:53that we have to adjust.
13:55If we look at it,
13:56at this time or this month,
13:59there is a rebalancing index too.
14:02And if we look at it,
14:04there is still a potential buy,
14:06but for buy or weakness,
14:07with a close price target,
14:09maybe for the first resistance test.
14:11Okay, the first resistance test
14:13at what position?
14:16For the first resistance test,
14:17it's at level 12,200
14:20to level 13,000
14:22for the first resistance test.
14:24How much is the buy at the lowest price?
14:27Okay, for buy,
14:28it can be at the previous closing price,
14:30which is at around level 11,500.
14:3411,500 current price, right?
14:36Because now it's at 11,550.
14:39Like that?
14:40Yes, like that.
14:41Okay, there is still a target,
14:42but this is more like short-term trading?
14:46Short-term trading, yes.
14:48Okay.
14:49If the stock recommendation
14:50that you are more firm,
14:51that this is an interesting stock
14:53to be put in the middle of the index,
14:54again at the highest record,
14:56what kind of stock are you more inclined to?
14:58Can it be evaluated one by one?
15:00Okay, if we look at it,
15:02we have to look at the long-term first,
15:05that is in 2025,
15:06where it is ensured that
15:07there will be a flower-type gap,
15:10so that it can be attractive
15:12to several sectors,
15:13such as the property sector,
15:15retail, consumer, and others.
15:19And for us, MS Cryptos,
15:21in the short term,
15:24we have several examples,
15:27such as BBNI, INKP, PANI, and also TOR.
15:31BBNI, INKP, PANI, and TOR, right?
15:36PANI and TOR, yes.
15:37Okay, we will discuss first,
15:38maybe we go to PANI first,
15:42what is interesting about PANI?
15:44Okay, if we look at PANI,
15:46in terms of market size,
15:48it is quite attractive,
15:51and also if we look at the long-story growth,
15:53and also the private investment yesterday,
15:56these things have the potential
15:58to make PANI accelerate
16:01in the coming years.
16:03And if we look at this property sector,
16:06there is TELWINS,
16:08with the government,
16:09which is doing an extent
16:11from the PPNDTP,
16:13the total price of this property
16:15will of course be able to increase
16:17the marketing sales of the future property.
16:20But what about PANI?
16:21There are a lot of positive sentiments,
16:23the expansion of the Bunga tribe
16:24will have an impact on housing credit,
16:27has a positive impact,
16:28then also the new government
16:31is interested in building houses
16:34more than before,
16:35and is interested in building housing ministries,
16:38and there are other sentiments like that.
16:40But why PANI,
16:41out of so many emitting properties,
16:43Mr. Raka?
16:44Okay, we are interested in PSN,
16:47the government-sponsored program,
16:49where if we look at one of them,
16:51there is PANI and also BSDE.
16:54If we look at the land bank position,
16:56the large land bank potential
16:57is still available to PANI,
16:59and the position of the land bank
17:01can be above other emitting properties
17:05that have been a proxy for a long time,
17:06such as Pakuwon, Ciputra, BSD,
17:09and also SMRA.
17:11Okay, what is the range of PANI?
17:13Currently, it is at 9,050.
17:15The increase is quite significant,
17:17continuing the strengthening that has been going on
17:19for three consecutive days.
17:21Okay, for us technically,
17:24for the nearest target price,
17:25it is at the level of 9,500 from the Ministry of Security,
17:28and the stop-loss is below the level of 7,525.
17:32Okay, 9,000, the target is 9,000?
17:359,500 for the nearest target price,
17:38and the stop-loss is below the level of 7,525.
17:419,100 currently by current price?
17:44Okay, for now it can be by current price too,
17:47for PANI.
17:48For PANI, representing the property sector.
17:51Okay, later we will discuss the opening of the first trading session,
17:55and also the other items that have been mentioned,
17:57the investment business,
17:58stay tuned in the Market Pass segment.
18:01Thank you, Mr. Mirsa, for being with us again.
18:03Today, Wednesday, September 11, 2024,
18:06IHSG again touched the new highest level, Mr. Mirsa.
18:10It touched the position of 7,800,
18:13before it eventually fell to the bottom.
18:15Mr. Mirsa is currently strengthening 0.36%,
18:187,788,
18:22and the strength is 28 points.
18:25Mr. Mirsa continues to climb for the joint stock price index,
18:28accompanied by the Rupiah, which has strengthened to 15,429.
18:34And Mr. Mirsa is followed by the following stocks,
18:35which are gainers based on value.
18:37Among them are Brand,
18:39Brand again strengthened 2.39% at 11,775.
18:44Laba, AMRT, Cuan, PANI,
18:46which is also a stock from MNC Securities,
18:49today entered the top gainers in the 5th position,
18:51PNLF, SMRA, Unilever, and also several others.
18:55And losers are PSAB, Medco, WIKA, GRIA,
18:59ENRG, INET, STAA, MSJA, AMAN, and also BINO.
19:04With sectoral movements, you can see in the middle column,
19:08Mr. Mirsa, everyone is moving in a positive territory,
19:10led by technology, property, and finance.
19:14What do you think about IASG?
19:17It touched 7,800.
19:19Yes, it's possible.
19:20It reached 7,800.
19:227,000, yes, that's right, 7,800.
19:27Yes, 7,000.
19:28Yes, indeed, if we look at IASG's performance today,
19:31it's quite in line with our previous prediction,
19:34where as long as IASG is still able to maintain the level of 7,654,
19:39then IASG still has a chance to continue to grow.
19:42Then IASG still has a chance to continue to test the level of 7,800
19:46to the level of 7,824,
19:49to form wave 5 from wave 1 of the box.
19:52However, it should be noted, if we look at it,
19:55unfortunately, for the historical cycle,
19:59usually the decline of the Bunga Devet tribe
20:02will usually be accompanied by a short-term correction
20:05for all existing global indexes.
20:08Therefore, we anticipate for IASG,
20:11if it is corrected below the level of 7,654,
20:14then the level of support that will have the potential to be tested
20:18for IASG is at the level of 7,804
20:21and the level of 7,499.
20:24However, let's be careful again later
20:27for the sentiments that happen too, of course.
20:31Okay.
20:32And if we look at it,
20:34in line with that,
20:36we from MSDK still set a target for IASG in 2024
20:41at the level of 7,370 to the level of 7,560.
20:467,300 even, yes.
20:48If you look at the opportunity to go down to that position.
20:512024, yes, it means this year,
20:53from the current level of 7,800,
20:56there is an opportunity to go down to 7,300.
20:58Especially if the FED really cuts the Bunga tribe,
21:00according to the projection, you see,
21:02there is no trigger, it will be priced in
21:05and right now the market is, what is it,
21:09euphoria will cut the Bunga tribe.
21:11That's why the increase is quite significant.
21:13Later, if it's official,
21:15yes, maybe there will be a profit-taking action.
21:17So that's what needs to be monitored.
21:19Yes, for this volatility,
21:21it can be measured from whether the US will be soft landing or hard landing.
21:25If later the US is hard landing,
21:27then it will need to cut the Bunga tribe
21:30and such a thing can trigger a significant price drop again.
21:34Okay.
21:35But again, it's just a short-term correction.
21:37Okay, but there is still time,
21:39there is still about a week for the Bunga tribe.
21:42So there is still a chance for trading,
21:44trading may take advantage of the opportunity.
21:46In short, after Pani, you recommended BBNI, INKP, and TOWR.
21:50What are the recommendations for these three funds?
21:54Okay, indeed for BBNI,
21:56we see that in terms of info,
21:58this is indeed banking.
22:00For this banking info,
22:02it has been quite massive in BBRI,
22:05sorry, in BBCA, BRIS, and BMRI.
22:09We see that the next potential info will be directed to BBNI
22:13and for the series with lagging that exists in BBNI.
22:16Then next for TOWR,
22:18you have mentioned the target price from level 900 to level 1000.
22:21When I was on the IBST side yesterday,
22:23this can provide a more solid future.
22:26And INKP, if we look at it,
22:28it has the potential for better performance in the future,
22:32especially with public expansion
22:34and also demand that is not only in China.
22:36In the future, the demand has the potential to shift to India.
22:39Okay, that's it.
22:40BBNI, INKP, PANI, and TOWR.
22:42Tips before we end,
22:44in the middle of an index that is once again a record in the morning.
22:46How?
22:48Okay, indeed if we look at the current SGS fund,
22:50it is still favored by the flow of liquidity from abroad.
22:54However, I hope that if the investor feels that there is a decrease in the price,
23:01especially when the flow of liquidity is increasing,
23:03then the investor can take advantage of the profit for the time being.
23:06And waiting for bottoming,
23:08later to buy back the assets of the selected instruments.
23:12So if you just want to enter,
23:14hold on, wait for the discount prices.
23:17Because the average has increased significantly like that.
23:20Yes.
23:21Okay.
23:22Thank you, Mr. Raka,
23:23for sharing the information this morning
23:25and the recommendation,
23:26hopefully it can be a reference for investors at home.
23:28But Mr. Mir, once again, the investment decision is in your hands.
23:32Good luck, Mr. Raka.
23:34See you again.
23:35Okay, good morning, thank you.