Pilih Saham Berdasarkan Value atau Growth di Tengah Pelemahan IHSG?
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (07/10/2024) dangan Tema Pilih Saham Berdasarkan Value atau Growth di Tengah Pelemahan IHSG?"
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00:00What is the agenda of the Global Economic Forum?
00:05We have the Global Economic Agenda from the U.S.
00:08which is the Trends Index for CBOE.
00:11Then from the European Union, there is the Retail Sales Index
00:14and President Obama's bid.
00:17Then from China, there is the Deficit Savings Index.
00:21Then from Japan, there is also the Deficit Savings Index
00:23and the Consumer Price Index from Thailand
00:25as well as the Consumer Price Index from Indonesia.
00:28Then, we move to the EMIT agenda.
00:31Among them are the DPS Dividend Tune-in Interim,
00:34KUM Dividend Tune-in Interim,
00:36and the payment of coupons from the BSDE.
00:39So, there is AALI DPS Dividend Tune-in Interim,
00:41UNTR also has KUM Dividend Tune-in Interim,
00:45BSDE, and there is also Mora.
00:49According to what you can see on the screen.
00:51An update from the ASEAN exchange on morning trading
00:56This Monday, the Japanese Nikkei was up 2.17%,
01:00Singapore's Street Time was up,
01:02KOSPI was also not far from Singapore's Street Time,
01:04and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.93%.
01:13Looking at the closing of the US and European exchange
01:16which was strong at the end of last week,
01:17and we can also see the opening of the ASEAN exchange in the morning.
01:21Maybe there is a chance that the SARGASAM Index
01:24will also reverse from weakening last week to strengthening.
01:27And we will discuss it with Mas Hendra Wardana,
01:31Founder of Public Investor.
01:32Good morning, Mas Hendra.
01:34Good morning, Mrs. Lisa.
01:36Thank you for joining us this morning, Mas Hendra.
01:39Looking at the SARGASAM Index last week,
01:42it ended up experiencing a weakening.
01:44But we just saw from the opening of the ASEAN exchange,
01:46the average was strengthening,
01:47especially the Nikkei was up above 2%.
01:50There is a chance at the beginning of this week,
01:51the SARGASAM Index will reverse or what?
01:55Okay, Mrs. Lisa.
01:56If we look at the condition of the SARGASAM Index last week,
01:58it can be said that it experienced a significant correction
02:02for a week,
02:03because it weakened almost at the level of 2.6%,
02:06or at the lowest level, at the level of 7,496.
02:11And if Mrs. Lisa asked earlier
02:13whether there is a chance of a rebound today,
02:15it is very likely to rebound,
02:17because if we look at the global market,
02:20the global market also fell on Friday,
02:22it experienced a strengthening.
02:23And earlier we also saw that the Asian region also experienced a strengthening.
02:28In addition, we see that the Nikkei is more than 2%.
02:31There is a possibility for the ISG today
02:33to test its psychological area again at the level of 7,500.
02:37Or maybe later we will see
02:38that the condition of the ISG will go up.
02:42The driving force is definitely the SARGASAM.
02:44But if we look at the last week,
02:47this is actually a burden on the ISG.
02:52We see a weakening of the SARGASAM index at the end of last week,
02:57and it looks like this is also a weekly weakening.
03:02For one week ago, the SARGASAM index fell by about 0.6%,
03:10at 7,496.
03:13Or in three consecutive days,
03:15from the 2nd to the 4th,
03:20all of this is a weakening compact.
03:22Do you see the weakening of the ISG as normal?
03:24Or how do we go from 7,900 to 7,400?
03:28Yes, actually it can be said,
03:30previously when I was live on IDX,
03:33I also said there was a chance that the ISG would correct.
03:37Just wait for the sentiment, the negative sentiment.
03:41And it was proven that the ISG was at level 7,900,
03:44but now it is traded or closed at level 7,496.
03:48Actually, what sentiment makes the ISG go down quite deep?
03:53Because if we look at it, there is indeed a Chinese stimulus
03:58that makes the outflow quite large for one week.
04:01Because if we look at it,
04:02the outflow of one week for the ISG is almost 5.07 trillion.
04:07This is a very large number,
04:10especially in the banks,
04:12which in particular are the driving force of the ISG itself.
04:16And we also see the tension in the Middle East
04:20between the war between Iran and Israel.
04:22This makes the condition of our market a little panicked.
04:28But I feel that the movement of the ISG today
04:32will tend to experience strength,
04:34even though we are more careful as investors.
04:38The concern is that the rise today,
04:41in the future, the ISG will go down again.
04:46Only a temporary technical rebound.
04:48But we still have to look at the opportunities that are happening today.
04:51Okay, if we look at foreign investors,
04:53they did book an outflow in the last week.
04:57How do foreigners still do business?
05:02Do you see this as a short-term or long-term?
05:05Okay, if we look at it,
05:07for one week, the ISG outflow is almost 5.07 trillion.
05:12And the shares sold by the ISG are
05:15BBRI 1.2.9 trillion,
05:17BBCA 1.1 trillion,
05:20Bang Mandiri 844 billion.
05:24This is a fairly high number.
05:27As investors, what do we do?
05:32Back to investors,
05:34are we long-term or medium-term,
05:36or are we playing short-term?
05:38We take advantage of the momentum
05:40when there is a good news sentiment,
05:43we trade there.
05:46For example, when there is a sentiment of commodity experiencing strength,
05:50because oil experienced strength yesterday,
05:52we try to trade in some oil.
05:54Then there is a sentiment related to Mr. Prabowo,
05:59he said he would care about Indonesian people,
06:02he was given the opportunity to check up every year.
06:06Shares of pharmacies are experiencing strength,
06:08including healthcare, such as hospitals, etc.
06:11So, as investors or traders,
06:13we must be smarter to look at the sentiments that occur.
06:16Although in all aspects,
06:19we have to look at the overall of the ISG,
06:22which is experiencing a correction from level 7,900
06:26to level 7,496.
06:29But even though the ISG is decreasing,
06:31there are still sentiments that make other stocks
06:35also have a chance to make a profit there.
06:38There are sentiments that make other stocks
06:40have a chance to make a profit,
06:42you say like that.
06:44But we see that the data of labor
06:49in the United States
06:51turned out to be better than expected.
06:53It means that there is a possibility
06:55that the cut of the flow rate,
06:56which is expected in the November meeting,
06:59may not happen.
07:01That's the expectation.
07:02But on the other hand, it's also positive.
07:04The data of labor is better than expected,
07:06which makes the stock market stronger.
07:08What will be the impact on Indonesia?
07:13Will it also be positive?
07:15It means that the US economic growth
07:17is not slowing down or improving,
07:19but also the cut of the flow rate,
07:21which is expected to be more massive,
07:24may also be sustained.
07:27What does that mean, Mr. Henrach?
07:29Actually, it's a global economic dilemma.
07:33Why did I say it's a dilemma?
07:34For example, when the US economy
07:36is growing well,
07:38the possibility of the Fed reducing the flow rate is small.
07:42But when we look at the labor,
07:44we hope that the US labor is not just good.
07:48We are worried that the Fed will not reduce the flow rate.
07:52The point is, the Fed has reduced the flow rate
07:56by 50 basis points,
07:57or around 5%.
07:59And our market should remain optimistic
08:03until the end of the year.
08:05Because there is still a chance for December
08:08when the US does not reduce the flow rate in November.
08:12Because the factor is not just the number of labor,
08:16but also the inflation rate.
08:18We hope that the US inflation rate
08:20has begun to be controlled,
08:22let's say around 2% to 2.3%.
08:27There is a chance for the Fed to reduce the flow rate
08:29until the end of the year,
08:31around 25 or 50 basis points.
08:33There will be a chance there.
08:35But if we look at the conditions of the IASG,
08:37in my opinion, the tendency is very natural
08:41when the IASG has experienced
08:43a very significant increase
08:45up to 7,900.
08:47And as I said in the previous live,
08:50we just have to wait for the negative sentiment
08:52for the IASG policy.
08:54And right now, the IASG is at level 7,496.
08:57And there is a possibility that the movement of the IASG
08:59will move sideways at level 7,380
09:03to 7,600.
09:05Before that, maybe until the end of the year,
09:07in December,
09:08the IASG will again increase to level 7,800
09:11or 7,900.
09:13Or even test the ultimate high at level 8,000.
09:17Let's look at the sentiments
09:19that certainly make the IASG optimistic
09:22towards our own market.
09:24That's it.
09:25Okay.
09:26Well, if you look at the commodity stocks,
09:28they are doing well.
09:29Recently,
09:30also because of the commodity price
09:32which is indeed high.
09:33While the stock market,
09:35the signs have also sounded
09:37for example,
09:40big.
09:41When the IASG is weak,
09:43we should look at the sentiment
09:45in terms of value or growth.
09:48Growth.
09:50Okay.
09:51Back again,
09:52it's each to the profile of the investor.
09:55For example,
09:56typically for those who are long-term
10:00or more to the investor,
10:02certainly more to the growth.
10:04But if for example,
10:05typical short-term or medium-term,
10:08we look at the value.
10:09Which is like,
10:10what kind of stock is happening?
10:12If for example,
10:13let's say with the IASG condition,
10:16yesterday experienced a very significant correction.
10:19We are trading in commodity stocks.
10:21We force the commodity stocks
10:23to buy at that time.
10:25Yes, automatically,
10:26we have a loss.
10:28Moreover,
10:29commodity stocks outflow.
10:31And if for example,
10:32we look at 70-80%
10:35commodity stocks,
10:36it must be dominated by foreigners.
10:38So when, for example,
10:39foreigners are still very aggressive to outflow,
10:41the stock that is said to be a typical investor
10:44who grows better,
10:46just be patient.
10:47Wait, there is a real technical rebound
10:49in the stock market,
10:50namely,
10:51foreign stocks have started not to outflow
10:54or foreign stocks have returned to inflow.
10:56That may be an option
10:58when friends of investors
11:00want to buy commodity stocks.
11:03But when, for example,
11:04value investing,
11:05let's say,
11:06choose based on
11:08M810, M810,
11:09which is still undervalued,
11:11and so on,
11:12maybe you can choose stocks
11:14that are said to be benefited
11:16like commodities.
11:17Yesterday, if we look at
11:18commodity stocks like Midpo,
11:20it experienced a 9.2% strength in the same week.
11:23Elsa also experienced a 6.6% strength.
11:27And if we look at Raji,
11:29it is 33% stronger.
11:30And maybe today is
11:32the momentum for commodity stocks.
11:34Because if we look at the trading
11:36on Friday yesterday,
11:38the Newcastle commodity stock sector
11:41experienced a 4% strength,
11:44more than 4%.
11:45So, today, it is possible that
11:47the stock that is happening
11:49is a commodity stock.
11:50Okay.
11:51It depends on the risk profile.
11:52If for investment
11:53and following the institution,
11:55usually, it likes the growth,
11:57commodity stocks that grow.
11:58But right now,
12:00the momentum is again in stocks
12:02that are more value.
12:04It depends on how you want to choose,
12:07short-term or long-term.
12:09If it's short-term,
12:10today there is a chance
12:11maybe from the commodity stocks.
12:14Right, Enra?
12:15Right.
12:16For the commodity stocks.
12:18Okay.
12:19Later we will discuss
12:20the recommendations of your choice.
12:21Is there a value-based one
12:23or more to the growth?
12:25And what is the sector?
12:26Does it include commodities?
12:27USAIJEDA,
12:28Enra,
12:29we will be back
12:30in the next segment.