"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Senin (01/11/2024) dengan Tema Pasar Saham Sambut Pekan Pilpres Amerika Serikat."
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00:00Good morning, Mr. Mirza, for those of you who have just joined us, you are watching MarketBuzz, which will process a number of information about the capital market and also its recommendations.
00:14But before we talk with the analysts this morning, Mr. Mirza, we present to you data related to the Global Economic Agenda.
00:22From the United States, there is the Employment Power Index. Then from Europe, there is PMI Manufacture. Then from Germany, there is Pidato Bubba.
00:29And also from France, there is the Royal Government and PMI Manufacture from Spain.
00:36From the PMI Agenda, there is the Stockholders' Meeting. Then there is the DPS, Dividend Loan Interim from DVLA.
00:44Dividend Loan Interim from Sido.
00:49So, Mr. Mirza, there are several agendas from PMI for Monday, November 4, 2024.
00:56Updates from the Asian stock market. Will it follow the global stock market that tends to strengthen at the end of the week?
01:00Or is it just like the IHSG? We see that Nikkei fell by almost 3 percent.
01:06Then at the same time, Singapore rose by 0.35 percent.
01:09Kospi rose by 1.35 percent.
01:11Hang Seng rose by 0.93 percent.
01:14What will be the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?
01:23This morning, we will discuss how to anticipate the results of the U.S. presidential election that will be held this weekend.
01:32We will discuss it with Mr. Praska Prutentio, who is the CEO of Advisor.id.
01:36Good morning, Mr. Praska.
01:38Good morning, Ms. Lisa.
01:40Thank you for your time this morning, Mr. Praska.
01:42Of course, there are many sentiments that are of interest this weekend, especially from the global.
01:46There is the U.S. presidential election.
01:48And the day after that is the meeting of the DFAT, which is projected to re-eliminate the Bunga tribe.
01:53First of all, let's go to the U.S. presidential election first.
01:56What needs to be anticipated?
01:59Is it true that predicting who will win is a bit difficult because the competition is very tight?
02:05Yes.
02:06Okay, thank you, Ms. Profesor.
02:08So, related to the issue this week, there are three things.
02:12But if I look at it, there are four.
02:14Not only from the U.S. presidential election, but also from the DFAT and our GDP release.
02:22Today, the GDP per third quarter is projected to slow down.
02:25The expectation is 5%.
02:28Although it has just indicated that the potential is lower than 5%.
02:31And the fourth is the release of manufacturing data from China.
02:36Although in terms of impact, it may not be as significant as the data from the U.S.
02:42But these four things, in my opinion, are the most important things this week.
02:46In addition, the inflation in China will probably be released on Thursday, Friday.
02:51For this week, it is also important.
02:53Maybe from the U.S. side.
02:55The U.S. side, because of the polling results from the New York Times,
03:01which I saw here, the National Polling Average,
03:05it seems that Kamala Harris has been collected at around 49% and Trump at 42%.
03:11It means that the competition is still quite thin.
03:13Here, it is difficult to make the market still wait and see.
03:17Related to the results of the U.S. election,
03:19which may be ensured in 1-2 days is not quite final in terms of results.
03:23If we look at it, the market seems to anticipate whoever wins.
03:28This will be anticipated by the impact in the future.
03:31Especially if we look at President Donald Trump's election,
03:35of course it is anticipated how the trade war policy will be.
03:39Regarding the tariff against the main opponent, China,
03:43which is the right-hand man.
03:45This can also trigger an economic crisis later.
03:48In the middle of the economic condition,
03:50China is trying to rise up with a lower tariff.
03:53Even though in Trump's era,
03:55of course, the stimulus or pro-tariff policy is highly prioritized.
03:59As for Kamala Harris, this is more of a geopolitical issue
04:03which is currently a market trigger,
04:06because it triggers the volatility of the value of the community,
04:10especially in geopolitics in the Middle East
04:12and also in the issue of Ukraine and Russia,
04:14which can be said to be still unfinished.
04:19From your observation on the domestic market players,
04:22who do you think will win?
04:27If I look at it, it still seems more likely to Kamala Harris.
04:34Because in terms of the low-cost policy,
04:37of course it will be continued because it is to support the meeting.
04:40But Mr. Dida, to minimize the trade war this time,
04:43Mr. Dida, don't let it happen first.
04:45Because in the middle of geopolitics,
04:47if the trade war continues,
04:49it will be difficult for the global economy to recover.
04:53Especially now, the economy seems to be sectoral.
04:57Look at the manufacturing index in China,
05:00then in the US, in China too,
05:02in several countries in the European Union,
05:04it has also started to decline like that.
05:06Okay, so you see that you are more interested in Kamala Harris, right?
05:11Yes.
05:12Okay, what needs to be anticipated when the winner
05:16is Trump or Kamala Harris?
05:22What steps do domestic market players need to take
05:27at this time when one of them wins?
05:32For example, let's go to Kamala Harris first.
05:34What should be done?
05:36Is it better to take a position if it is true that Kamala Harris wins?
05:39Or right now, when the S&P index is down more than 1% on Friday
05:44and it is already at 7,400 again?
05:48Yes, okay.
05:49So if I look at the market, without looking at any of the winners,
05:52because each has a side that needs to be looked at.
05:56Especially if it is Trump,
05:59be more conscious of his role,
06:01the issue will be more significant in my opinion.
06:03So if I look at the investor,
06:06it is more recommended to be able to do an average down.
06:10So the investment pattern is more of a wait-and-see.
06:14Wait-and-see.
06:15So anticipating the pressure by accumulating stocks that have been re-collected.
06:21Especially when we talk about sectors, from banks,
06:24then from consumer goods,
06:26then energy that is currently being re-collected.
06:32In the middle, the price of commodities is also currently being re-collected.
06:35Because anticipating the short-term uncertainty
06:38is what needs to be looked at or taken by the investor
06:42in considering the stock investment this week.
06:46Okay, Mr. Praska.
06:47So you see the weakness that is happening right now
06:49is only temporary while anticipating the uncertainty of this short-term.
06:53Whoever wins later, the market may adjust again.
06:57What needs to be done.
06:59But you see the trend is actually still going up.
07:02So the short-term uncertainty needs to be anticipated first.
07:05That's why there's a weakness like that.
07:07Yes.
07:08Okay.
07:09How about the day after that?
07:11The Fed will hold a meeting that is predicted
07:13to still limit the flow of flowers.
07:15Many have analyzed around 25 basis points.
07:17Do you agree or not?
07:19Yes, okay.
07:20So if you look at it,
07:22with the current probability of 98.9
07:28which I opened on this date
07:31it was even 100% yesterday.
07:33The percentage level for the basis point
07:3525 basis points again to level 4.75.
07:38This does look like it has been anticipated by the market.
07:41So that sentiment looks like for me
07:44it doesn't look too interesting for the market.
07:46It looks like the market is interested
07:49to see how the results of the US market
07:52then also maybe how from the side
07:55what is the condition of the economic outlook.
07:57Especially here, after the government of China
08:02and also the Central Bank
08:04also carried out flower harvesting.
08:06The most effective flower harvesting
08:08is quite significant for economic growth.
08:10Here they want to see how
08:12the condition of inflation there
08:14will also improve or not like that.
08:16Before maybe also continuing
08:19from the results of the US market
08:21which has been released on the 4th, 5th, and 6th.
08:26In my opinion, like that,
08:28what I see here is the impact
08:31that can be anticipated by the investor.
08:34So you feel that this has actually been priced in like that.
08:37But you see there is an opportunity
08:39to cut the 25 basis points, or bigger?
08:41Yes, in terms of opportunities, it is true.
08:43It is in line with expectations if it happens.
08:45So the market does hope for a strong 20 basis points.
08:47Because inflation in the US
08:49even if we look at the data here
08:52it still seems to experience a decline.
08:56It hasn't increased yet.
08:59So for example, inflation yesterday was still 2.4%
09:01if you look at September.
09:03So it does support the flower harvesting, right?
09:06Yes, it still supports.
09:08But what if it stays?
09:10Or bigger?
09:11So it's impossible, 50 basis points.
09:13Or still like that?
09:15So here, if we look at the response
09:18which is a bit pessimistic
09:20it happens in the obligation market.
09:22The US Treasury,
09:23just when the 7th quarter is over,
09:26the US obligation yield
09:29even increased to 4.39
09:31which indicates that there is a long-term concern.
09:35Even though from the central bank's point of view,
09:38there is a flower harvest.
09:40Where from the sentiment of the obligation market
09:43sees that by showing a slowdown
09:46in the US economy,
09:48there is a manufacturing index.
09:50This is what makes investors tend to
09:53do a release on the obligation market
09:56resulting in an increase in the yield.
09:58So the focus is more on the sector,
10:01which is currently being surveyed by the market players.
10:04Again, just looking at the slow inflation,
10:06the decline,
10:08then it creates hope
10:10when the economy will also slow down.
10:12Again, look at the impact on the sector.
10:14Like that.
10:16So you still recommend
10:18to do a buy-on-weakness
10:20to those who have overcome the weakness
10:22with the sector you mentioned earlier.
10:24You just added that the sentiment from the domestic market
10:26is the GDP of Indonesia in the 3rd quarter
10:28that will be released today.
10:30You said the possibility will slow down.
10:33What needs to be done
10:35if it really slows down?
10:38What is the possibility of short-term impact?
10:42So if I look here,
10:44actually the Sampita market,
10:46the 2.5% correction from last week,
10:48it has responded to things
10:50that may not be good this week, in my opinion.
10:52So the correction of the GST
10:54from level 7,778
10:58rose after the appointment
11:00of the President and also the Ministers.
11:02Then the brokers
11:04tend to net sell,
11:06including foreign investors.
11:07I recall here,
11:08last week,
11:10even last month,
11:11net sell was around 5.7 billion,
11:13then the record net buy was around 4.1 billion,
11:16and now net sell is around 6.3 billion
11:18in the domestic market.
11:19It means that the investors
11:21seem to have anticipated
11:23the negative effects
11:25of the correction.
11:27Even though,
11:29I recall there was a gap
11:31at level 7,505
11:33and another lower gap
11:35at level 7,366.
11:37This is the worst scenario.
11:40But at least,
11:41for level support 7,500,
11:43it has started to touch a little more.
11:45So, in my opinion,
11:46the anticipation for GDP
11:48slowed down,
11:49and if we look here,
11:51from the loan growth,
11:53the credit flow slowed,
11:54our inflation deflated
11:55for 3-5 months,
11:57even though in October,
11:58we finally deflated again,
12:00sorry, I mean inflation, 0.08,
12:02but in my opinion, it's quite thin,
12:03not strong enough,
12:04but the weakness of net buy,
12:06our manufacturing index
12:07slowed down to 49.2,
12:09which indicates that
12:11our sector is under pressure,
12:13including the issue of PHK
12:15and so on.
12:16So, indeed,
12:17the sector that is under pressure
12:19right now,
12:20in terms of primary consumer,
12:21and the collapse of several other sectors,
12:23such as
12:25the financial sector,
12:27infrastructure,
12:29and energy,
12:31is still under pressure,
12:33and also logistical transportation,
12:35which is the most under pressure
12:36in the past week.
12:37I think that's it.
12:38So, you see,
12:39there is a chance for GDP
12:40to be released
12:41a bit late
12:42in the third quarter of 2024,
12:44which will be released today,
12:46the probability is less than 5%, right?
12:50In our prediction,
12:52it is suggested
12:54from 4.9% to 5%,
12:56something like that.
12:574.9% to 5%,
12:59that's the GDP.
13:00And you see that
13:01the chain of negative sentiments
13:04should have been priced,
13:06seeing foreign net foreign sale
13:08which is almost
13:10more than 6 trillion
13:12year to date.
13:13Even though it was already positive.
13:15So, when it's really
13:17realized later,
13:18the data has been released,
13:19you see there is a chance
13:20for a reversal, right?
13:21Right.
13:22Good.
13:23And the currency is also weakening right now, right?
13:25Yes, 15,800.
13:26In the middle of that sentiment,
13:28and still a little more
13:30so that the certainty becomes real,
13:32what are your recommendations?
13:34We will review in the next segment.
13:36After the break,
13:37stay with us at MarketBas.