France's political deadlock: Why has Macron still not chosen a PM?
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00:00Still no white smoke, and after a week of there being, well, a daily
00:05assumed favourite candidate being put forward here in France as
00:08Emmanuel Macron's potential choice for the country's new Prime
00:11Minister, well, it appears we could all be back to square one.
00:14Macron has, throughout the week, received a series of different
00:17potential candidates in his attempts to find a consensus
00:20possibility that could possibly bring the French Parliament into
00:23some kind of working situation.
00:26But so far, he seems to have failed.
00:28That's why international affairs commentator Philip Turrell is
00:31joining me here on set.
00:32Good to have you with us, Philip.
00:33I mean, it is now, isn't it, the longest period since the creation
00:37of the Fifth Republic back in 1958 that France has been without a
00:40head of government.
00:42Why so long?
00:4451 days already.
00:4651 days without a Prime Minister.
00:48Well, we have got a Prime Minister, that's Gabriel Atalba.
00:50He's a caretaker Prime Minister because he no longer has a
00:53majority in the National Assembly with his party, Renaissance,
00:56that's Emmanuel Macron's party.
00:58So the search is on to find a replacement for him.
01:02And it is turning out to be a nightmare scenario for the
01:05president because every candidate he has in mind, that
01:09candidacy is shot down by the opposition who say, well, if that
01:12candidate does become prime minister, then we are going to
01:15immediately set up a vote of no confidence in the National
01:18Assembly and the prime minister and the government will fall
01:21because there will be enough support for that vote of no
01:23confidence to be accepted.
01:25So that is the predicament that Emmanuel Macron is in.
01:28We haven't seen anything like this for years and years in
01:31France. Normally, it's just a formality that once an election
01:34is taken over, the president will name a new prime minister
01:37and that prime minister will then form a government.
01:39The problem here is that no one has a majority.
01:41289 is that magic figure, Stuart, that you need the number
01:45of seats you need to be able to form a majority in the National
01:48Assembly. No party has it.
01:49The NFP, which is the La France Insoumise, France en Barde,
01:53far left party, the socialists, the Greens and the communists,
01:56they have 193.
01:57That's 100 seats short of that majority.
02:00And then you have the government Renaissance.
02:03They have 166.
02:04Still not enough.
02:05The National Rally of Marine Le Pen as a single party, they have
02:08the most seats, but only 142.
02:10So they can't form a government and neither can the traditional
02:13right wing, the Republicans.
02:15They only have 47 seats.
02:16That's their worst showing since the Fifth Republic.
02:20So we're in a situation where there is horse treading going on.
02:22There are arguments going on, almost insults being traded,
02:26because Emmanuel Macron has said he will not govern either with
02:30the left wing France en Barde or with the far right National
02:34Rally of Marine Le Pen.
02:36He would like to take a more consensual candidate in the middle.
02:38But both of those parties have said, well, if you take a consensual
02:40candidate in the middle, we will veto that and there will be no
02:43government. Most of this week, Philip, we've had two main potential
02:46candidates, haven't we, that everyone's been talking about.
02:48This is Bernard Kasnav and Xavier Bertrand.
02:50Tell us about that.
02:51OK, so there are in fact three right now.
02:54The first two, Bernard Kasnav, he is 61.
02:58He was a former socialist prime minister, so he's been there and
03:00done that and knows what he's going to do if he gets named.
03:04But he quit the Socialist Party in 2022 when they struck up an
03:08alliance with the far left and created his own movement called
03:11La Convention. So he is seen as a figure who doesn't really toe
03:15the line as far as the socialists are concerned today.
03:17They're saying he's an odd person out.
03:19And also the far right has said they will veto his candidacy.
03:22Second person, Xavier Bertrand, a lot of hope was given
03:25towards his candidacy.
03:27He's 59, he's a current regional council president of the
03:30Hauts-de-France, the northern French region.
03:32He was a former employment minister under Nicolas Sarkozy,
03:35but he quit the Republicans, the Conservative Party, and then
03:38rejoined it to try to become presidential nominee.
03:40He didn't manage that, but he's an arch enemy of Marine
03:44Le Pen, who also has a bastion in northern France.
03:46And she said, if he gets named, I'm going to veto that candidacy
03:49straight away. There's another one now, and that's Michel Barnier,
03:53who was a former agriculture minister in France.
03:58He's also been foreign minister, but he was best known as being
04:00the Brexit negotiator and a commissioner in the European Union.
04:03If he's taken on, he's 73, he will be the oldest candidate.
04:08But he could be more consensual because he comes from the EU
04:11and maybe someone who is well respected as well
04:15could be a candidate that would fit the bill.
04:17But even that is not sure right now.
04:19And we don't know if Michel Barnier wants to actually do the job,
04:22because there's a saying in France that when you become prime minister,
04:24you walk in to the prime minister's office on your two feet
04:27and you come out carried feet first because the work is so
04:32incredibly difficult and you're just in the crux of arguments all the time.
04:36There are two important issues that need to be solved urgently in France.
04:40The first one is the budget.
04:41It has to be presented to parliament by the end of September.
04:45No sign of that happening.
04:46And there's an increase in France's debt, which has been announced.
04:51And also a big row going on about the overall reform of the pension
04:55bill, which came into effect last year, pushing the pension age up to 64.
04:59Practically unanimity through the opposition that that bill is going to be
05:03shot down if they take power.
05:05That's something Emmanuel Macron doesn't want.
05:08Last point, a lot of people are saying,
05:10why doesn't Emmanuel Macron resign and call fresh presidential elections
05:14that will lead to new legislative elections could solve the problem.
05:17Emmanuel Macron should stay in office till 2027 and he is not moving.