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00:00live right here on the early line on sports grid. It's time
00:06to set up a new week in Major League Baseball on this Monday
00:10and 11 game card around the bigs on this Monday in MLB. We
00:15start in Milwaukee between the Dodgers and the Brewers, two
00:19top teams in their respective divisions. Milwaukee now is
00:22seven and a half game lead in the National League Central.
00:25The Dodgers a three and a half game advantage over the
00:27surging in red hot San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks
00:31in the National League West. Clayton Kershaw gets yet
00:35another start tonight on the road in Milwaukee against the
00:37Brew Crew. The Dodgers an ever so slight favorite minus 112 on
00:42that money line. Total is eight. What do you like in the
00:44opener between the Dodgers and the Brewers? To be honest, this
00:48is going to be interesting because you do see LA as a
00:50favorite. They're primarily a favorite each and every time
00:52you just see the name Clayton Kershaw like, oh, that's good.
00:54Freddy Peralta not as good as Clayton Kershaw, but the
00:56questions certainly come up on how good Clayton Kershaw is
00:59going to be down the stretch for the Los Angeles Dodgers,
01:01but I see that eight number here and I really want to go
01:04over. Forget about what Kershaw has actually done on the
01:06field. Only 61 batters he's faced so far this season. Let's
01:10go down and take a look at the lineup here for the Milwaukee
01:12Brewers outside of Contreras and Artemis. We're very good
01:15hitters. They've struggled against left-handed pitching
01:17over the past 30 days. The rest of that lineup and cheerio 553
01:21weighted on base percentage Hoskins 405 Sanchez 342 Perkins
01:25454 Ortiz 353 Freilich 403 and Monteserio 442. Now, of course
01:32you want to focus on say how many runs we're going to get
01:34out of the Dodgers and in the focus of the lineup today
01:37expected to be back. I'm showing movie bets in the
01:40lineup. So we go with Tawny Betts Freeman Hernandez Smith
01:43Lux Rojas Kiermaier Hernandez two really good looking lineups
01:46and it bets us back in we are going to get over eight runs in
01:49this game. Forget about a side and taking a coin flip. If
01:52Kershaw can bounce back those two lineups should be ready to
01:54go tonight in Milwaukee. When Mookie Betts got injured, he
01:59was batting 304 had 10 home runs and 40 RBIs. He was a
02:04hefty favorite to win the National League MVP award in
02:08front of his teammate and current hefty favorite Shohei
02:12Ohtani. But of course, Mookie Betts is not played now in
02:15nearly two months since Sunday, June 16th, an added piece to
02:20this Dodgers lineup getting healthier and healthier at the
02:24right time, but he will not play shortstop where he has
02:27been for this season in Los Angeles. He'll return to right
02:32field where he is more comfortable to ease back into
02:35the rotation. The Dodgers sweeping the Pirates this
02:38weekend. Now they head to Milwaukee. The Brew crew nearly
02:41sweeping the Reds, but Cincinnati winning the finale
02:44yesterday four to three. The Atlanta Braves are struggling
02:48at this moment. They have dropped seven of their last
02:51eight games. They now go to San Francisco to take on the
02:54Giants. What a pitching matchup we have. The National League
02:58Cy Young favorite in Chris Sale against the reigning NL Cy
03:01Young winner in Blake Snell. San Francisco, a home underdog
03:06minus 112 to Atlanta minus 104 on the other side. That total
03:11no longer seven DRS. It is dropped to just six and a half.
03:15Absolutely. It should be dropping at this point. You
03:17take a look at, you know, Chris Sale right now at the
03:19FanDuel Sportsbook, who's going to win the Cy Young Award for
03:22the National League. It's Chris Sale right now, rightfully so.
03:25He has been that good. This is a true pitcher's ballpark, but
03:27I want to focus actually on the other side here. It's Blake
03:30Snell. My goodness, you want to talk about shot out of a cannon.
03:33His last 100 batters, that 118 batters that he's faced. How
03:37about a strikeout percentage here of 39%? That's outrageous.
03:41How about taking a look at the ISO power number against 073
03:45weighted on base percentage 157. Looking at that Atlanta
03:48Braves lineup outside of Jorge Soler is the only legitimate
03:52bat going up against left-handed pitching, which
03:55means the rest of the lineup in a pitcher's ballpark against
03:58maybe the most dominant pitcher right now in baseball. That
04:00doesn't hold up. Do I think it goes under six and a half? Yes,
04:03I do, but I'm more likely to say I have the better lineup at
04:06the plate and the better pitcher on the mound, even though I do
04:09think Sale is in line to win a Cy Young tonight. I think I'm
04:12going to take Snell plus 100. Sign me up there for Snell and
04:15the Giants. Sale the odds-on favorite to win the National
04:19League Cy Young award at minus 125. Blake Snell won the award
04:23last year in San Diego, has had a wild 2024 season plagued by
04:27injuries, but in four starts in July, he did not earn a
04:32decision, but only gave up two earned runs in total. Now in
04:36August, he has won his last two starts. He is two and three
04:39with a 4-3-1 ERA. San Francisco, meanwhile, has won
04:43eight of its last 11 games. The San Diego Padres have won 16
04:48of their last 19. They're a home favorite today against the
04:51Pittsburgh Pirates, minus 164 on the money line. DRS, the
04:55Buccos have dropped seven straight. Yeah, quickly on this
04:58Musgrove, looks like he's going to get back on the mound, so
05:00sometimes you have a little bit of angst, maybe batting on that
05:03side as such a heavy favorite, but Marco Gonzalez pitching
05:06for the Pittsburgh Pirates, terrible against lefties,
05:08terrible against righties, red hot offense for the Padres. Oh
05:12boy, just got a little bit harder to make the playoffs
05:14here tonight for those Pittsburgh Pirates. That's for
05:16score. Yeah, seven straight Ls at this moment. After splitting
05:21a four-game set this weekend against divisional foe, the
05:25Twins lost their final two games to Cleveland. Another
05:28division arrival to start off this week for the Twins against
05:32the Kansas City Royals. Minnesota, a minus 162 favorite,
05:36a total of eight tonight at Target Field in the Twin
05:40Cities. Pablo Lopez gets the start for Minnesota. On the
05:43other side for Kansas City, it's Brady Singer. DRS, only a
05:47half game separates these two teams and where they stand in
05:51those standings. Cleveland has a three and a half game lead
05:53for the top spot in the American League Central over
05:56Minnesota, who's a half game in front of KC, but also spot two
06:01and three in the American League wildcard race. The Twins, a
06:04half game up over the Royals, an important midweek set gets
06:08underway tonight. That is a big midweek game set that's going
06:13to shape up, but by the way, when you take a look at the
06:15Pablo Lopez side of things, his ERA over the past 68 days isn't
06:18that bad at 3.88, but one of the better X-Fit minus numbers of
06:22those past 68 days. So analytically, he's the better
06:24pitcher than Brady Singer is on the Mounte, but also both of
06:27these lineups are very good. So if we're lining up and saying,
06:30all right, 78 degrees in Minneapolis, that's very good
06:33temperatures for them. Wind slightly blowing out to left
06:36field, that total that I'm looking at for these two good
06:38pitchers. I wonder if that sticks tonight and also is it
06:40more of a playoff atmosphere because of how close these two
06:43teams are at this point. If I do think the better pitcher is
06:46Lopez, maybe at a minus 125 minus 135 price point would
06:50make sense. That price point is too high for me to take the
06:52Minnesota Twins. I'm probably looking more towards the
06:55underdog in this environment, but as I said, the two lineups
06:57do present themselves well, but both of these pitchers also
07:01probably a slight, slight lean to the under. I don't know if we
07:04get nine runs, but they should approach that seven or eight
07:06range at that point. But for me, that plus 128, that sticks
07:10out more than the minus 152 price. If I think we're
07:12basically in a coin flip type of an environment with maybe
07:15just home field advantage for Minnesota, I probably would
07:17lean on the Kansas City Royals in this spot here. Also, just
07:21something to note, KC played in one of those rivalry weekend
07:24series that we saw around the bigs. It was the White Sox and
07:27the Cubs, Chicago taking both of those, the show me stage
07:31showdown between the Cardinals and the Royals. Both of those
07:34sets, just two games. So, KC had a rare Sunday off in Major
07:39League Baseball before this trip to the Twin Cities. Alright,
07:43the Houston Astros have won five straight. They are tied
07:46right now with Seattle atop the American League West. One less
07:49win, but one less loss for the Astros at this moment. Houston
07:54on the road tonight in Tampa to take on the Rays. The Strohs, a
07:59favorite from Valdez, has been sensational for the Astros.
08:03It's why Houston is a road favorite tonight. Seven and a
08:06half is the total in the truck. I think this should be a road
08:10favorite too. So, I don't mind that minus 125 or so price
08:12point, but if I'm looking at that total seven and a half, I
08:14don't think we get the eight runs. Now, correct me if I'm
08:16wrong. I think Taj Bradley got beat up a little bit in his
08:18last start, but he's been spectacular typically at home
08:21this season and over the past six days, even with some of
08:24those starts and 81 X-Fit minus number with an ERA that
08:27approaches just below two, which is fantastic. But Fran
08:30Rivaldo is the best pitcher by far on that Houston lineup here
08:33and also talking about not playing in Houston, which
08:36technically is a hitter's ballpark, but playing in Tampa
08:38Bay, which is a pitcher's ballpark instead of taking the
08:40side itself, which I do think Houston probably will win this
08:43game. I don't think we get eight runs here. I'll take the
08:45under seven and a half here. When you look at Romer Valdez,
08:49DRS for the Astros, they have won his last eight starts.
08:52Houston as a team. Valdez himself has earned a winning
08:57decision in six of those eight. The Astros at only minus 126 at
09:03this moment. Could the reigning World Series champs be out of
09:07the American League postseason here very soon? The Rangers in
09:11danger, seven and a half games back of the two top teams in
09:14the AL West, Houston and Seattle, a full ten games out
09:18of a wild card spot in the American League. The Red Sox
09:22now fall to three games out of a wild card spot in the AL.
09:26They got swept this weekend at home in Fenway by those
09:29Astros. Boston running a four-game losing skid, slightly
09:33favored at home today, remaining in Fenway to snap the
09:36skin and get back into the win column. Do you agree with the
09:39odds? The odds do make sense. I actually think they're a little
09:43bit short technically because the Texas Rangers on the mound
09:45with Tyler Molle, he did have a good start coming back here
09:47into Major League Baseball in 2024. ISO power number against
09:51those 21 batters, 050, weighted on base percentage, 263, but
09:54you're also taking a look at a Boston team, particularly at
09:56home against right-handed pitching that's absolutely
09:58matched. Their last 30 days, first four batters in the
10:01lineup, weighted on base percentages, 462, 434, 403, and
10:04476. Connor Wong is in that fifth spot today, not so good,
10:08but then you get to the next three batters weighted on base
10:10percentages against right-handed pitching over the past month.
10:13Smith, 389, Sogard, 380, and Raffaella at 368, but also, if
10:18I'm looking at an angle from this game, I think Boston wins
10:21probably so, but Brian Baio is on the mound. He really
10:24struggles, not only the past 30 days, Ben, but the entire
10:26season against left-handed batters, maybe just a Corey
10:29Seager RBI prop who threw his last 68 plate appearances
10:32against right-handed pitching, a 328 ISO and a weighted on
10:35base percentage of 425, and had a very good day yesterday, even
10:38in a losing effort for the Rangers against the New York
10:41Yankees. So, I think an RBI prop for Seager, but also still
10:44think that the Boston Red Sox end up pulling this game out.
10:48An early week start for our guy, Luis, don't call him, you
10:52know what? He'll on the bump today for the Yanks and DRS
10:56from where we showed this line and ask Tom Vecchio for his
10:58handicap. It has worked in favor of New York on the road
11:02today against the White Sox. Now, minus 330 to lay the run
11:06of the half with the pinstripes on the road in the south side
11:10is minus 210. So, Donnie, ask Tom, how do you approach a game
11:15with a greater than $3 line in that money line number? I ask
11:19you the same question. What's the approach? Here's the crazy
11:23thing. Let's just say if it was Chris Sale in the mound for the
11:25New York Yankees as the best pitcher technically on the card
11:28today, X-Fit minus wise over the past 60 days, you go, yeah,
11:30that makes some sense here because we don't know we're
11:32going to get out of Kai Bush. He had struggled a little bit in
11:34AAA. Second start, I believe, in Major League Baseball this
11:37year on a bad baseball team. They shouldn't win, but when
11:39you take a look at Luis Gil, he's got a 114 X-Fit minus,
11:42which is above average over the past 60 days. An ERA of close
11:45to five, an X-Fit number that's high, and a Sierra number at
11:484.41. It's not as if you're getting like a super dominant
11:51pitcher. Is he the better pitcher in this game? Yes, or
11:53the better team, the New York Yankees, but goodness gracious,
11:56minus $3.30 price on the road against a pitcher that
11:59technically has been average at best over the past 60 days
12:02shows you how bad the White Sox are. For me, probably just
12:05looking at Soto with a hot bat yesterday, now facing another
12:08left-handed pitcher, which he's done extremely well over the
12:10past 30 days. Maybe an RBI prop, home run prop, or some total
12:13basis prop on Soto makes more sense to me because you figure
12:16if they win and win going away, Soto's probably going to be
12:18a big deal, and you don't have to lay minus $3.30 in order to
12:21get that victory. Two home runs for one Soto yesterday in the
12:25series finale win over Texas. The White Sox snapped their 21
12:29game losing skid on Tuesday. They lost to the A's the next
12:33day. They fired Pedro Grafal as the manager. They've lost two
12:37straight. DRS, enjoy the money line. We'll talk tomorrow for
12:40the early line next.