MLB Best Bets: Epic Pitching Duel - Sale vs Snell Showdown
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00:00All right, Craig, you mentioned it last night in San Francisco, the reigning National League
00:09Cy Young winner, San Francisco's Blake Snell, who won the hardware last year in San Diego
00:14and the NL Cy Young frontrunner this year, Atlanta's Chris Sale, facing off in a game
00:20where both were scoreless and nearly unhittable and both struck out at least 11 guys on the
00:27other side. It was scoreless in regulation. In extras, Travis Darnot and RBI's Zach Fly
00:34wins it for the Braves, a game they desperately needed to add to the win column. But Craig,
00:40as you're watching this last night, Chris Sale for Atlanta, Blake Snell on the other
00:44side for San Francisco. What was going through your mind watching this pitching duel?
00:48Yeah, I was all last night with Joe Ranieri. We were talking about this and going over
00:52maybe this is the best pitching matchup of the season to this point. You know, look,
00:57Snell has been fantastic from start to finish. There's a reason why Blake Snell is not in
01:01that Cy Young conversation. He got off to that slow start. He signed very late in spring
01:06training. I think that definitely hurt the beginning of the season. But even going back
01:10to last year, Ben, and going back to Blake Snell with Tampa in the postseason, I think
01:16that you can make the case that in a short sample, if you just needed one pitcher who
01:21is at his best for five or six innings in all of baseball, you may take Blake Snell.
01:27I mean, he is that when he is on, he is that good. He may be the very best pitcher in baseball.
01:34Last year, he was able to put it together for an entire season to win the Cy Young.
01:37This year, it's been about a month and a half, two months. That was my takeaway from last
01:41night. Right now, when you're facing Blake Snell, if you're betting against Blake Snell,
01:46just get out of the way. The guy is untouchable right now. This is not going to be the entire
01:51rest of the season, I don't believe. But to me, he is the most dominant pitcher when
01:56he's right over anybody else in the game.
01:59And also getting the benefit of the doubt, pitching in a great pitcher's ballpark. That
02:01was unbelievable stuff. One to nothing victory yesterday. But I want to talk about the Los
02:06Angeles Dodgers here with you, Craig Mishka. Correct me if you heard this before. A dominant
02:09performance out of Clayton Kershaw. Otani home run, Betts home run. Betts, welcome back
02:14to Major League Baseball. Absolutely fantastic. Two home runs combined, five RBI combined,
02:19three hits here, a Dodgers victory. What can we expect from Otani at number one and
02:24Betts number two in that lineup the rest of the way? Because if last night's an indicator,
02:27it's going to be something.
02:28How about Freddie Freeman and Teosca Hernandez? I mean, this team is just loaded from start
02:33to finish. And this is why, Donnie, is that there are two months in the season usually
02:38that I look at, July and August, where I usually do not worry about performances, especially
02:44from teams and even your Phillies. I understand they went through it for about a month or
02:48two. But look, talk to me at the end of the season. You're playing 162 for a reason. If
02:53you're winning 91 games versus 98 games because you only won five out of 15, does it really
03:00matter at the end of the season? I understand we're all prisoners of the moment and we freak
03:03out. There's no reason to freak out about the Dodgers. Is there a reason to freak out
03:08about the Dodgers, guys, if they get swept in the first round of the playoffs? Of course
03:11there is. But for right now, it's August baseball, guys. Let's get real. Dodgers will be there
03:17in the end. Diamondbacks are getting hot. There's a chance certainly they catch them,
03:22surpass them. I think all those things are possible. Remember, it is a tournament in
03:27baseball now in October. It is not the postseason like we used to know it.
03:32The Dodgers have to hold on if they want to claim their 11th NLS crown in the last 12 years
03:38because San Diego and Arizona cannot lose. LA has won seven of its last eight games. Perhaps
03:45the largest upset this year in Major League Baseball. The Yankees were greater than a
03:50three and a half dollar favorite last night on the road in the south side of Chicago
03:55against the muddling White Sox, who won by double digits, 12 to 2. Congrats to Grady Sizemore picking
04:02up his first win as the White Sox interim manager. And Sizemore had this to say before the start of
04:09the series last night against the Yanks, quote, we're going to be extremely careful. That guy
04:15does a lot of damage on Aaron Judge, who will be getting a ton of free passes and intentional walks
04:22from the White Sox this week. It worked last night, Craig. Do you think more teams around MLB,
04:28as we have seen over the last month or so, will continue to give some free passes to Aaron Judge?
04:33Yeah, easier to do now than it will be in the postseason. So, you know, right now, look,
04:38the White Sox and the Yankees will play some other teams, Toronto, I'm sure, that are out of it and
04:43really have nothing to lose except for being embarrassed by him. So I think there's certainly
04:47a chance of that happening. I mean, the other thing that we have to watch today, and again,
04:51I'm saying this tongue-in-cheek, Jazz, so I hope he doesn't get mad at me, but every time Jazz Chisholm
04:56has said in Miami that he'll be fine and play the next day, he's been out for the season the next
05:00day. So Jazz last night said, I'm good, I'll be ready to go whenever the next day. Hey, buddy,
05:04I've heard this before. And then the next day you're out for the year. I'm not saying, I'm not
05:09rooting for that, obviously. I'm just saying, like, I know fans last night, oh, Jazz said he's
05:13okay. Folks, it don't mean anything. I've been with this guy for years. I hope he's okay. I want
05:19to see him play well for the Yankees. But guys, that is a hold your breath announcement coming
05:23later today. Hopefully for Jazz, he's only out a couple of days because he has been an absolute
05:28monster for the Yankees. They cannot afford to not have him in the lineup. Yeah, it's been kind
05:34of crazy there for the Yanks. A major favorite last night, still a heavy favorite tonight,
05:37almost a $3 price as well. We'll see how that turns out for the Yanks. But tonight, Houston and
05:41Tampa Bay going to take place down at the Trop, Cucucci versus Boz. If you look at the line in
05:46this game, eights at the FanBlue Sportsbook, now down to seven and a half is the total. And a
05:50favorite here still for Houston at a minus $1.36 price. What are we looking at tonight, Craig,
05:53from these two? Over on Cucucci, strikeout props. This guy has been fantastic. I mean,
05:58what has gotten into this guy with all of these strikeouts here? Another player that's gone to
06:03another location that has just put on a new jersey. He's in a pennant race. Josh Bell is
06:07doing the same thing in Arizona right now. You know, I don't know who's going to win the game,
06:12guys, at this stage of the season. But I like the way Cucucci is pitching, and I think that I would
06:16probably ride that train right now. The Astros have won six straight. They've won both of Cucucci's
06:23starts as a member of this Astros starting staff. He's had 19 strikeouts in those two starts
06:29since being acquired ahead of the deadline. Craig Misch, we appreciate the time. See you on
06:33Newswire in just a little bit. More on the early line next. Here we go. Let's preview some baseball
06:38games around this fall Tuesday slate in MLB. Mookie Betts makes his return yesterday in Milwaukee,
06:45ups his batting average, hits a two-run home run in his second at-bat, and adds in three RBIs in
06:52total as the Dodgers take game number one against the Brew Crew in Milwaukee, five to two. An ever
06:58so slight favorite here in game number two against the Brewers. It's Gavin Stone for Los
07:03Angeles. It's Colin Wray on the other side for Milwaukee. You take a look at these pitchers,
07:09and actually the better pitcher is not for the Dodgers. But the Dodgers, as we know,
07:12will always get the benefit of the doubt specifically in the betting markets. Why?
07:15Because people line up and say, wait a second, as long as I'm not paying $2,
07:18let me just take the Dodgers because of how much talent they have. And you saw yesterday,
07:22Otani and Betts going yard. That's certainly going to have an influence. But take a look at Colin Wray.
07:26Last 60 days of Major League Baseball, 94 XFIP minus, an ERA of under 3.5, solid XFIP numbers,
07:32solid Sierra numbers. But also let's just take a look at some of those non-analytical numbers,
07:36if you will. The last 90 batters that he's faced, how about a K rate? 33%. Fantastic.
07:41How about an ISO power number? 107. How about a weighted-on-base percentage? 254. So certainly
07:46holding his end up with a bargain here for the Milwaukee Brewers. I understand it's a very good
07:51lineup today, specifically with Betts back. He's expected to be in that lineup today. But if we
07:55look at Gavin Stone, an average pitcher, but his last 91 at-bats in Major League Baseball over the
08:00past 30 days, who he's faced, a 299 ISO, really elevated. A weighted-on-base percentage of 427.
08:06Look at the middle of that lineup. That's Churio, Mitchell, Contreras, and Adamas. 276, 216, 271,
08:12and 476 ISO power numbers. You take a look at Rhys Hoskins, his last 52 at-bats. He gets right
08:17into pitching. How about a 370 ISO? I think we take a look at today that maybe you go the dogs
08:23in a bounce-back effort for the Brewers at home. DRS, Mookie Betts might be back with the Dodgers,
08:30but he's not staying with the Dodgers in Milwaukee. You see this story? The Dodgers are staying at
08:36Pfister Hotel, constructed in the late 1890s, the late 19th century in Milwaukee. It's reportedly
08:43haunted. Mookie Betts does not mess around with ghosts. He's got his own Airbnb that he's staying
08:49at in Milwaukee while the Dodgers are on this road trip. Use that in your handicap as you see fit.
08:56Again, the Dodgers have won seven of their last nine games. Milwaukee had a five-game win streak
09:01entering their final game against Cincinnati this weekend. They have now dropped two straight.
09:06In the National League West or in the National League wildcard race, you just have to keep winning
09:10games to keep pace with San Diego and Arizona. That's the story for both San Francisco and
09:17Atlanta tonight. The Braves and the Giants once again by the bay. What a pitching performance and
09:23a duel we got last night. Chris Sale and Blake Snell into extra innings scoreless. The Braves
09:29win it in 10. 1-0. Atlanta had lost seven of its last eight entering the opener in San Francisco.
09:37A virtual pick-em today in game number two. Who gets the dub? It's really another coin flip as
09:43you take a look at it. If we're lining up pitchers today, again last 60 days, minimum 20 innings
09:47pitched on some of those analytical numbers. There's 24 pitchers on the card. How about this?
09:51Kyle Harrison eighth, Charlie Morton ninth. So stacked right against each other. We know this
09:55is a true pitcher's ballpark as well. But having said that, slightly above average, ex-fit modest
10:00numbers for both of these. But these lineups leave a lot to be desired. We saw the total under
10:05yesterday. I mean 1-0 in 10 innings here. Easily stayed under that six and a half to seven
10:09numbers that were out there. Now you're going to give me an eight and a half in this. And again,
10:13the pitchers yesterday, not nearly as good today on the bump. I understand that. I still think this
10:19stays under the total. I don't have a decided advantage on either pitcher or either lineup.
10:23I'll just say those lineups, I don't care what the law of average. Oh, they didn't score yesterday.
10:26They scored today. It might happen. I'm still saying I don't think they get the nine runs today, Ben.
10:32Yeah, eight and a half is that total in San Francisco. The line working even closer.
10:37Atlanta right now minus 1-10 as an ever so slight road money line favored San Francisco
10:42at minus 1-06. The Pirates have lost eight straight games. They're virtually out of the wild
10:48card chase at this moment. San Diego, the opposite end of that coin. They have won 10 of their last
10:5412. They're a $2 favorite tonight against Pittsburgh at Petco Park. The over-under is at
11:01eight. Do the good times keep rolling in Southern California? Yeah, Michael King makes his way over
11:06from the New York Yankees in that trade for Juan Soto. He has been nothing short of sensational
11:09over the past couple months in Major League Baseball. He's third on my card today with an
11:13x-fifth minus number of 77 in ERA over the past 60 days, 2.91. Great x-fifth numbers,
11:18great Sierra numbers, and certainly in a pitcher's ballpark, and he is at home. So how many games?
11:24Is it eight in a row that the Pittsburgh Pirates have lost is what we're saying now? Correct, yes.
11:27You can make it nine in a row after today, but if you do want some RBI props to take a look at from
11:32a perspective where, Donny, I don't want to lay two to one price here on a favorite, I get it.
11:36Ortiz isn't a great pitcher. He's a right-handed pitcher. Lefties get the best of them. Jerickson
11:40Profar, a switch hitter today. He should be in your lineup. Jackson Merrill, the talented center
11:44fielder, making great plays in the outfield on top of flaking some great plays at the plate,
11:49and also you take a look at David Peralta. I think it's an easy victory tonight for San Diego. A
11:54couple RBI props in there, and I don't know when this losing streak is going to end for the Pirates.
11:57I just don't think it ends tonight. And San Diego has won 17 of its last 20. One of the bright spots
12:04despite another win yesterday for the Padres. Joe Musgrove was back on the bump in San Diego for
12:09the first time since late May. Only 63 pitches, only four and a third, but scoreless outing only
12:15allowing two hits. Another good sign in many for San Diego at this moment, and if they keep winning,
12:22Arizona needs to keep winning, and the Diamondbacks have done that. Five to four in the opener of their
12:28set against Colorado yesterday. Arizona remains at home, and they're also a $2 favorite
12:33against the Rockies. Total at nine in the desert. What do you like in Phoenix?
12:38Hey, take a look at Austin Gombra. You see it yourself. He's got an ERA over the past six days,
12:41close to six. A lot of that does have to do with him pitching in Colorado because his X-fit minus
12:46number is rated on average at a 104, but if you're going to get, let's just say, an average pitcher
12:51here against that hot lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks, how could you not go with the
12:54Diamondbacks? I understand they're a heavy favorite, and hey, sometimes you got to take
12:57some underdogs, and they do win. I just don't think they're going to be capable of winning
13:01tonight. Austin Gombra, left-handed pitcher, really struggling with right-handed batters,
13:05so you take a look at that lineup today. Lourdes Gurriel, Josh Bell, who is a switch hitter,
13:08hold back from the right side today. He should be involved in your lineups. E. Eugenio Suarez
13:13has been very good here for the Diamondbacks. I think the Diamondbacks win this one going away,
13:17maybe taking a look at a total to the over in this one as well.
13:22Four straight wins for the D-backs. Eight wins in their last nine games, 12 wins in their last 14,
13:2816 wins in their last 19. They and San Diego have been so incredibly hot since the All-Star
13:34break, it is almost hard to fathom, and so when you look at these games and how they will impact
13:40either the National League West race, the Dodgers still in front by three and a half games,
13:44trying to hold on to the divisional crown for the 11th time in the last 12 MLB seasons,
13:50but Arizona and San Diego are going to be playoff teams, tied at 67 and 53,
13:56four games up over Atlanta for the top two spots in the NL wildcard chase.
14:01More around MLB on this Tuesday, up next on the Early Line.
14:05The Houston Astros have won six consecutive games. They will take that win streak today
14:10with them for game number two of their midweek set in Tampa at the Trop against the Rays. Yusei
14:17Kikuchi makes his third start after being acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline. Houston has
14:23won each of the first two starts that Kikuchi has made. He's got 19 total Ks in those two outings,
14:30and because of all that and Houston's winning ways as of late, the Astros a road favorite
14:35at the Trop. Will it be seven straight for the Astros today against the Rays?
14:40Yeah, I think they pick up the win, I do. I think they have the better pitcher on the mound,
14:42and Yusei Kikuchi going up against Shane Boz, who is a, you know, a decent pitcher, but I just like
14:47the way the lineup sets up today for the Houston Astros. Bregman, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, and also
14:53Caratini all have elevated weighted on base percentages against right-handed pitching over
14:57the past 30 days, and they're just a better team. So you take a look at some of these cheaper prices
15:01for the Astros playing great baseball, I'll climb on board again. I liked them yesterday to win,
15:06and yesterday to stay under the total. They did both barely staying under because nobody scored,
15:10I think, in the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, so that was a lucky one. But today, forget about
15:14the total itself, I just think Houston is the better overall team. I'll take the Strohs today
15:18to pick up the victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. For the second time in six days, it will be Terrence
15:24Scoble for Detroit against George Kirby for Seattle. At least Kirby is the projected starter
15:30as of this moment for the Mariners. These two teams, these two pitchers, faced off last week
15:36on a Wednesday in the Northwest. The total was six. Detroit came away with a win, 6-2 over Seattle.
15:44Today's total back in the Motor City is at seven. Scoble and the Tigers, a slight home money line
15:50favorite as of this moment. A pick-em on your screen, still very, very close. Detroit minus
15:56116 as of the updated odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Last week, total of six over.
16:02Today, minimal total of seven in Detroit. Will we see the same? Yeah, why not go under again
16:08at this point? Because it's not as if you're going from Seattle, which is one of the true
16:11pitcher's ballparks in America here, and saying, all right, we're going to go to Wrigley with the
16:15wind blowing out at 25 miles an hour. Detroit's not exactly a great hitter's ballpark by any stretch.
16:20And if you take a look at the weather conditions, it's 80 degrees. It'll be really nice, but a
16:23slight wind blowing in. So nothing, anything that's going to affect the ball going in or out with any
16:28crazy scenarios. Like, oh, I hit a fly ball. That was the warning track. It ended up in the third
16:32row and a two-run home run at that point. I'll go under in this because I look for a repeat
16:35performance. Both of these lineups don't present themselves all that great against these two good
16:39pitchers. But as Ben points out, you do want to make sure that pitching matchup is there. Because
16:43if you go back a couple years and say, let me just lock this game in and a pitcher drops, your bet
16:48would actually be canceled out. That's no longer the case. Nobody wants to be left handing the bag.
16:52Well, hey, I expected a very good pitcher to be on the mound. Now I'm getting a bullpen start out
16:56of said team here. So I do think it stays under as long as those two starting pitchers get to the
17:00opening or should I say, starting gates here. A good divisional duel in Minnesota. The Twins
17:06take the opener yesterday against the Royals. A huge six-run second inning and Pablo Lopez
17:12continues to deal for the Twins. It's Minnesota and KC once again. Only a game separates these
17:19two in the standings. Could it impact the AL Central? The Guardians still have a three-and-a-half
17:24game lead over Minnesota. It might be more impactful for that AL wildcard race. Just a
17:29game separates Minnesota in front of Kansas City. The Twins a home favorite today at Target Field.
17:36Seth Lugo gets the start for KC. Through the month of June, DRS, Lugo was 11-2, had a 2-1-7
17:44ERA. Both near the top in Major League Baseball, but he's dropped four of his last six starts. How
17:50do you expect him to perform today in Minneapolis against the Twins? I expect him to be decent,
17:55but that Twins lineup has started to come alive here at the right time. Now also, if we're trying
17:59to handicap and say, what do we anticipate out of the starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins,
18:03one of the better prospects in Major League Baseball coming up now in Zebby Matthews.
18:07So if you're looking for electric stuff right out of the gate, have you seen him in Major
18:10League Baseball? No, we haven't yet. So it does make it tough. But if we are just going by some
18:15of the numbers as a professional team that the Kansas City Royals are, one through nine, one of
18:19the better strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching over the past month,
18:23that will help you. Weighted on base percentages, the first six guys above average. So Zebby
18:28Matthews, if he has a great start, which they're hoping and they anticipate, that's fantastic. But
18:33we don't know how these players are going to perform until they get into the big show. It's
18:37a hard handicap just to say, well, I'm going to fade the rookie and go with the Kansas City Royals.
18:41It's really a no-play because I just want to see how this pitcher does,
18:44because I know they've been looking forward to bringing this guy up into the majors.
18:49Daniel Zeballon Matthews, known as Zebby Matthews. A big jump for him though.
18:54Wasn't in double-A ball, wasn't in triple-A, making his way through the minors. He was in
19:00high-A Cedar Rapids. Now he will make his MLB debut. The sixth-ranked prospect for the twins
19:06in their farm system makes his first major league start tonight at home in Minneapolis.
19:12That should be a good one. The Red Sox were on a four-game skid before a win in extras yesterday,
19:195-4 against the Rangers. The Red Sox looking up at the Royals, trying to keep pace with
19:26Kansas City, and hoping Zebby Matthews has a great MLB debut. The Red Sox at home today
19:32against the Texas Rangers. Minus 142 is that number. Total at 10. Well, we see some runs
19:40today at Fenway. Yeah, you see the 9 after 10, and rightfully so. I don't know if I've actually
19:46seen these numbers out of a pitcher that we're going to go over with Cutter Crawford. If you
19:49take a look at the analytical numbers, a 108 X-fit minus over the past 60 days, which isn't bad. A
19:545 ERA, not great. X-fit was a little bit raised. But the numbers we talk about, Ben, and sometimes
19:59you say, well, the pitcher only had three or four batters that he's faced. That's why it's high,
20:02because one of those three or four batters hit a home run. Cutter Crawford over the past 30 days,
20:0788 batters he's faced. I've never seen this before. An ISO power number against 518 combined
20:13through 88 batters. Like, if you're just doing the math, it feels like every other hitter either
20:18hit a double, tripper, or home run against him is what those numbers technically feel for me.
20:22Weighted on base percentage, close to 500. If you break it down, left-handed batters, which
20:27Corey Seager is a left-handed batter, a 619 ISO against through 46 at-bats. It almost looks like
20:34this is an error in computing right now where it can't be that high. It shouldn't be that high.
20:38So if you are backing Dinger Tuesday at the FanDuel Sportsbook against a pitcher that seems like he
20:43must give up a home run every single time to a left-handed batter, Corey Seager has got to be
20:47on your list. Now, it doesn't get much better when you flip it over to the other side with Jose
20:50Ureña. You take a look at him, 32 batters against lefties, 444 ISO, and a weighted on base percentage
20:56of 478. We know they got left-handed batters for days on the Boston Red Sox. So Dinger Tuesday
21:03might find itself a home in Boston, but certainly that total should be in peril even at a 10.
21:09The Rangers struggling as well. The reigning World Series champs in grave danger of missing
21:14the postseason. They have dropped 12 of 16. Should be some offense tonight in Beantown.
21:20DRS will talk tomorrow. Enjoy the Moneyline. More of the Early Line continues next.