Will Asteroid Hit Earth in 2038_ _ The End of the World _ Dhruv Rathee
Will Asteroid Hit Earth in 2038_ _ The End of the World _ Dhruv Rathee
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00:00Namaskar Friends!
00:01On 13th April, 2029,
00:03an asteroid apophis bigger than 1000 feet
00:06will pass very very close to the earth.
00:14If it collides with the earth,
00:16it will be such a devastation
00:18that has never been seen in the history of mankind.
00:20The bomb dropped on Hiroshima
00:22will release 1 million times more energy.
00:25Tsunami waves will rise 100 meters high
00:31and the entire city will be cleansed.
00:33But not only that,
00:34on 12th July, 2038,
00:36another asteroid can collide with the earth.
00:38And look at this post,
00:40it has a 72% chance of colliding.
00:43NASA has already issued an alert
00:45and has started its planetary defense exercise.
00:48Look at this post,
00:49it's only a few weeks old.
00:50After NASA's chief,
00:51now ISRO's chief has given a warning.
00:53We can all go extinct.
00:55Oh my God!
00:56An earth-destroying asteroid
00:57is rapidly approaching the earth.
01:00ISRO chief says
01:01it is an option to migrate to Mars
01:03and all global space agencies are working on it.
01:07How much truth is there in these news?
01:09Which are the most dangerous asteroids for the earth?
01:13And what is NASA's plan here?
01:15Let's understand all this in depth
01:17in today's video.
01:24Asteroids
01:27Asteroids are also called planetoids.
01:30Because they are like small planets.
01:32They are basically some big stones
01:34that are orbiting in space.
01:35They can be 10-20 meters in size
01:37and can also be 100-200 kilometers.
01:40The smallest asteroid that exists
01:42is only 2 meters wide.
01:44And the largest is called Ceres.
01:46940 kilometers in diameter.
01:48Most of the asteroids in our solar system
01:51are found in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
01:54Where there are millions of asteroids.
01:57The drawing of the asteroid belt
01:59in our textbooks is done like this.
02:02Looking at it, you might think
02:04that there are so many asteroids orbiting each other.
02:06But in reality, the average distance
02:08between any two asteroids
02:10is more than 1 million kilometers.
02:13Now what happens is
02:14many times these asteroids move away from this belt
02:17and come close to the earth.
02:19In such cases, we call them near-earth objects.
02:22In short, they are called NEOs.
02:24NEOs are not just asteroids.
02:26They can also be comets, meteors,
02:29meteorites and meteoroids.
02:31You might ask, what is the difference?
02:33Friends, they are all pieces of stone
02:36that are flying in space.
02:38But the way we define them,
02:40there is a difference.
02:41For example, asteroids are made of stone and metal.
02:44Comets are made of ice, stone and dust.
02:47They are also called dirty snowballs.
02:49Asteroids are found in the belt
02:51between Mars and Jupiter.
02:52Comets are found in the Kuiper belt.
02:54This belt is in front of Neptune
02:56and is far away in the solar system.
02:58When comets fly in space,
03:00they have a tail behind them
03:01which is not visible in asteroids.
03:03Typically, the size of comets can be very large.
03:05It can be 1 to 10 kilometers.
03:07And whenever a comet passes near the earth,
03:09it can be easily seen with the naked eye.
03:11But to see asteroids,
03:13telescopes are needed in most cases.
03:15In case of danger for us,
03:17a comet is far more dangerous than an asteroid.
03:19Because first of all,
03:20the speed of a comet is twice that of an asteroid.
03:23And secondly,
03:24the warning time is less.
03:25When a comet suddenly comes
03:27and impacts the earth,
03:29we won't know for a long time, unfortunately.
03:31The same thing was also shown in the film, Don't Look Up.
03:34In this film, it is shown
03:35how a 6-month warning time is given
03:37when a comet is about to hit the earth.
03:40And how the government and space agencies
03:42react to it.
03:44A meteorite is a small piece of an asteroid or comet.
03:48When a meteorite comes near the earth
03:50and enters our atmosphere,
03:52we call that meteorite a meteor.
03:54When it happens,
03:55it burns very quickly
03:57and we see a streak of light.
03:59It is also called a shooting star
04:00if you have ever seen it in the sky.
04:02When it is in large numbers,
04:04it is called a meteor shower.
04:06And if a piece of a meteor
04:07crosses the atmosphere
04:09and falls on the earth,
04:11it is called a meteorite.
04:13This is the only difference.
04:14The important thing for us here
04:16is the NEOs.
04:18Asteroids and comets
04:19that are passing near the earth.
04:21Because of which we are in danger
04:23that they may crash on the earth
04:25and the whole world may end.
04:27This danger is justified
04:28because this has happened
04:30to dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
04:38If they can go extinct,
04:39so can we.
04:41But before measuring this danger,
04:42before moving ahead,
04:43I would like to say one thing.
04:45If you take your news
04:46from such accounts
04:47on Instagram and Facebook,
04:49it would be better
04:50to stop following the news.
04:52Because this news of the 2038 asteroid strike
04:55is completely fake news.
04:59If you want to follow some pages
05:00on Instagram for news,
05:02then there are many options
05:03like The Hindu, Indian Express,
05:04Scroll.in, The Wire, News Laundry.
05:06Even our mainstream news websites.
05:08Although the standard of Indian media
05:10is not very good,
05:11this level of lies
05:12is not spread there at least.
05:14Because see,
05:15Times of India has also written
05:16an article on this.
05:17In the headline, it is written
05:18NASA warns that a planet-sized asteroid
05:20has a 72% chance of impacting earth.
05:23This headline is wrong.
05:25It is a click-baity headline.
05:26But if you read the first line
05:27of the article a little below,
05:29this has been clarified there.
05:31NASA recently conducted
05:33a hypothetical exercise
05:35to assess planet's preparedness
05:36against an asteroid impact.
05:38Actually, this 72% chance
05:40is not a finding or result.
05:42This is a hypothetical imaginary scenario
05:44that NASA has created.
05:46This was an exercise
05:47that if today we come to know
05:49that in July 2038,
05:51an asteroid is going to fall on earth,
05:54then what all can we do?
05:56This was a mock test
05:57in which more than 100 experts
05:58participated
05:59from different organizations.
06:01NASA, European Space Agency,
06:02UK Space Agency,
06:04United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.
06:06Everyone discussed that
06:08if an asteroid
06:09will hit the earth
06:1014 years from today,
06:11then what all steps
06:12will we take to stop it?
06:14On June 20, 2024,
06:16NASA released a report
06:17in the public
06:18in which some very interesting things
06:19have been told.
06:20We will talk about them
06:21later in the video.
06:22But before that,
06:23I would like to tell you
06:24that the date of 2029,
06:25which I talked about
06:26at the beginning of the video,
06:27that date is not hypothetical.
06:29An apophis asteroid
06:30bigger than 1000 feet
06:32really exists.
06:34And this asteroid
06:35passed very, very close
06:36to the earth
06:37on April 13, 2029.
06:39Only 30,000 km away.
06:41It is less than
06:42many geostationary satellites.
06:44NASA had released a video
06:46in which the exact path
06:47of this apophis asteroid
06:48has been shown.
06:50Five years from today,
06:51the day this asteroid
06:52will pass by the earth,
06:53you will not even need
06:54a telescope to see it.
06:56You will be able to see it
06:57directly with your own eyes
06:58at night.
06:59So the question arises
07:00that what is the chance
07:01that this asteroid
07:02will actually collide
07:03with the earth?
07:04Its answer is 0%.
07:08In 2004,
07:09when this asteroid
07:10was first discovered
07:11by humans,
07:12there was a commotion
07:13all over the world.
07:14Because the first observations
07:15that were made,
07:16they said that
07:17there is a 2.7% chance
07:18that this asteroid
07:19will collide with the earth
07:20in 2029.
07:22Now, 2.7% chance
07:23is not that big.
07:25It means that
07:26there is a 97% chance
07:27that it will not collide.
07:28But when the danger
07:29is so big,
07:30then 2% chance
07:31is also very scary.
07:32That's why in those years,
07:33this asteroid was called
07:34the city killer,
07:35the most dangerous asteroid.
07:38That's where it got its name,
07:39Apophis.
07:40Apophis is a very big snake
07:41in Egyptian mythology
07:43that destroys everything.
07:45It is also called
07:46the God of Chaos.
07:47But the good news is that
07:48when scientists
07:49made more observations
07:50of this asteroid,
07:51they found out that
07:52in reality,
07:53there is a 0% chance
07:54that it will collide.
07:55A few years later,
07:56scientists thought
07:57that not in 2029
07:58but when it will come
07:59back to earth again,
08:00then the danger can increase.
08:01Like in 2036
08:02or 2068.
08:04Because in 2029,
08:05when it will pass
08:06through a keyhole,
08:07then it will pass
08:08through a keyhole area.
08:09In space,
08:10keyholes are called
08:11those places
08:12that are so close
08:13to the earth.
08:14Where an asteroid
08:15impacts the gravitational
08:16force of the earth.
08:17When in 2029,
08:18this asteroid
08:19will come so close
08:20to the earth,
08:21then it will pass
08:22through a keyhole region
08:23due to which
08:24its orbit will change.
08:25Due to the gravitation
08:26of the earth,
08:27its orbit will change
08:28due to which
08:29in 2036,
08:30the danger is more.
08:31Scientists were afraid
08:32of this at one time
08:33but today,
08:34this is not even a danger.
08:35Scientists have said
08:36that in the next 100 years,
08:37this asteroid will never
08:38collide with the earth.
08:39For this reason,
08:40it has been removed
08:41from the risk list
08:42of near-earth objects.
08:43Now you will say,
08:44what is this?
08:45Is there a risk list?
08:46Of course, there is.
08:47Space agencies
08:48around the world
08:49have made a risk list
08:50that which are the
08:51most dangerous asteroids
08:52in the future.
08:53For example,
08:54on the website
08:55of the European Space Agency,
08:56look at this risk list.
08:57When can all these asteroids
08:58and comets
08:59collide?
09:00Which is written
09:01in impact,
09:02date and time.
09:03What is the probability
09:04that all these asteroids
09:05and comets
09:06will collide?
09:07Look at this section
09:08of IPMAX.
09:09Maximum probability
09:10is written here.
09:11And in the section
09:12at the back,
09:13the diameter is written
09:14as to how big
09:15this asteroid or comet
09:16is.
09:17All this is the
09:18wonder of data science
09:19that today,
09:20we can predict
09:21the paths of
09:22all these asteroids
09:23so accurately.
09:24But not only
09:25space exploration,
09:26but data science
09:27is being used
09:28in many different
09:29fields today.
09:30Automobile,
09:31finance,
09:32space exploration,
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10:32Let's come back
10:33to our topic
10:34and in this
10:35risk list,
10:36let's look at
10:37the top 3
10:38most dangerous
10:39asteroids in
10:40detail.
10:41Number 1 is
10:422023 VD3 asteroid.
10:43This 2023
10:44in its name
10:45tells us that
10:46this asteroid
10:47was discovered
10:48in 2023.
10:49It is a very
10:50small asteroid in
10:51size.
10:52It is only 11-24
10:53meters in size.
10:54It can collide
10:55with Earth
10:56on 8th November
10:572034 and
10:58the probability
10:59of collision is
11:000.25%
11:01in percentage.
11:02This is a
11:03very big chance
11:04actually.
11:05This is the reason
11:06why it is
11:07on number 1
11:08in the list.
11:09But because
11:10its size is
11:11very small,
11:12it is not
11:13that dangerous.
11:14The chances
11:15are that
11:16even if it
11:17collides with
11:18Earth,
11:19it will fall
11:20on a place
11:21where there
11:22are no people
11:23and no damage
11:24will be done.
11:25In 2013,
11:26there was
11:27an incident
11:28when the
11:29meteorite
11:30hit a building.
11:31It came
11:32out of nowhere.
11:33A bright
11:34speck in the sky
11:35soon streaking
11:36across the horizon
11:37followed by an
11:38almost apocalyptic
11:39scene.
11:40A blinding flash
11:41of light
11:42and then
11:43all hell broke
11:44loose.
11:45The diameter
11:46of the meteor
11:47was 20 meters
11:48and a very
11:49powerful shock
11:50wave was
11:51released.
11:52Some buildings
11:53were damaged,
11:54some people
11:55were injured
11:56but no one
11:57died.
11:59Most of them
12:00suffered cuts
12:01from shattered
12:02windows.
12:293.
12:30Asteroid
12:312008 JL-3
12:32Estimated
12:33diameter
12:3423-50 m
12:35Potential
12:36impact date
12:371st May
12:382027
12:39Probability
12:40of impact
12:411 in
12:426,711
12:430.01%
12:44chance
12:45of collision
12:46All the
12:47scientists
12:48working in
12:49these space
12:50agencies
12:51are doing
12:52a great job
12:53because
12:54they don't
12:55want to
12:56take such
12:57risks.
12:58They
12:59believe
13:00that these
13:01are the
13:02only asteroids
13:03that we
13:04have discovered
13:05so far.
13:06It is
13:07possible that
13:08more asteroids
13:09will be
13:10discovered
13:11in the
13:12future.
13:13Comets
13:14do not
13:15have a
13:16good
13:17calculated
13:18trajectory.
13:19We
13:20will not
13:21get a
13:22warning
13:23window
13:24about
13:25comets.
13:26The
13:27first
13:28is
13:29Linear
13:30Lincoln
13:31Near-Earth
13:32Asteroid
13:33Research.
13:34It was
13:35started in
13:361996.
13:37It is a
13:38collaboration
13:39between
13:40NASA,
13:41MIT,
13:42and
13:43United
13:44States.
13:45It uses
13:46two 1 m
13:47telescopes and
13:48a half m
13:49telescope.
13:50And
13:51each year
13:52more than
13:5310,000 objects
13:54are discovered.
13:55It was established by the University of Arizona in 1998, which uses two big telescopes.
14:01Its measurements are so precise that in 2008, they found an asteroid which was only 4 meters in diameter.
14:07And accurately, they predicted the exact time and day when this asteroid will fall on the earth and where exactly.
14:1519 hours after their prediction, this asteroid fell in the desert of North Sudan.
14:20And at the same places where they predicted.
14:23Third is PANSTARS, Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System.
14:27It is present in the Pacific Ocean in Hawaii.
14:29And it uses the world's largest digital cameras to find asteroids.
14:34The images captured by this largest camera are of 1.4 billion pixels.
14:40And the fourth is ATLAS, Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System.
14:44It is also present in Hawaii and scientists have made it as a final warning.
14:49If all the other systems fail to find an asteroid, if an asteroid escapes by mistake,
14:54then this system will give us an asteroid impact warning at the last minute.
14:58Every night, this system can scan the entire sky twice for any danger.
15:03So, overall, this defense system of our earth is very good and strong.
15:07But sometimes, it fails.
15:09Like sometimes, small meteors escape undetected and impact the earth.
15:15Like what happened with the Chelyabinsk meteor in February 2013.
15:19This 20-meter-high meteor couldn't detect any system on time.
15:23That's why for such scenarios, the civil defense component becomes very important.
15:27NASA has talked about this on page 12 of its mock test report.
15:31If a small asteroid or meteor is about to hit somewhere,
15:35then it is very important to activate disaster management plans with international coordination at the right time.
15:41But what will happen if a big asteroid is about to hit?
15:47There are three strategies to deal with it.
15:50First, kinetic methods.
15:51Second, slow push and pull methods.
15:53And third, nuclear methods.
15:55Out of these three, the first, kinetic method is the only method that has been successfully tested in real life.
16:01In this, we send a spacecraft to hit the asteroid and change its orbit.
16:08It is a very simple and effective method.
16:10This practical experiment was conducted 2 years ago in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test.
16:15On 26th September 2022, a 170-meter-high dimorphous asteroid was present somewhere in space, far away from the earth.
16:22And NASA's spacecraft was taken and crashed on it.
16:31We didn't face any danger from this asteroid.
16:33It was conducted as an experiment to see if doing this changes the orbit of the asteroid or not.
16:39A video of the spacecraft was also taken, which you can see on the screen.
16:42And after this, when NASA saw the result, the asteroid's orbit had actually changed.
16:47The same experiment is going to be conducted by China's National Space Agency next year.
16:51In 2025, they will try to change the orbit of a spacecraft on a 30-meter-high asteroid.
16:58The second method is slow push and pull.
17:01In this, we slowly change the orbit of the asteroid.
17:04Solar energy can be used for this.
17:07A spacecraft goes near the asteroid and concentrates the sun's rays on the asteroid and vaporizes a part of the asteroid.
17:14Due to this reaction, a small amount of gas will come out, which will cause a slight thrust on the asteroid.
17:19And gradually, the asteroid will change its orbit.
17:22This happens naturally on asteroids when any asteroid passes near the sun.
17:27But when it is done by sending a spacecraft, the only fear is that when the vaporization will take place on the asteroid,
17:34the stone may interfere with the optical system of the spacecraft.
17:38The third method is the nuclear method.
17:40Literally, send a nuclear bomb into the spacecraft and destroy the asteroid.
17:49It sounds very cinematic, but realistically, it may never be used.
17:53There are two reasons behind this.
17:55The first is that using a nuclear bomb in space can cause a lot of legal, international, geopolitical problems.
18:02And the second is that when an asteroid is destroyed, its pieces will scatter all over.
18:07And we don't know which orbit those pieces will follow.
18:10It is possible that a piece may fall on the earth due to its destruction.
18:14But this method is still under consideration.
18:17Because if an asteroid is very large,
18:20like if an asteroid is more than 10 km in size,
18:23the same size that extincted the dinosaurs,
18:27then the other methods may not work because the size of the asteroid is so large.
18:32In the mock test that NASA conducted a few months ago,
18:35all these things were discussed.
18:37Exactly how to deal with an asteroid,
18:39which is going to hit the earth after 14 years,
18:42and whose chance is 72%.
18:45The good news is that 81% of the participants who were participating in this mock experiment,
18:50believed that they were ready to deal with such a danger.
18:54There are only a few gaps that scientists have raised regarding such scenarios.
18:58For example, one gap was mentioned that we have tried only one method till now.
19:03Kinetic method.
19:04In the future, we should test this kinetic method many more times
19:08so that we can be sure that it will work.
19:10This was the 5th meeting that was held to discuss such a hypothetical asteroid strike.
19:16Such meetings were held in 2013, 14, 16 and 22 as well.
19:21It was named as Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.
19:25And in the John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory,
19:27about 100 experts were selected.
19:30So, all in all, friends, there is nothing to worry about.
19:33Firstly, there is no such big asteroid in the next 100 years
19:36which has a 0.01% chance of hitting the earth.
19:40Secondly, our earth's defense systems are becoming more advanced with time.
19:45In the year 2028, NASA will launch a space telescope as well.
19:48It will be named as Near Earth Object Surveyor.
19:50It will detect such asteroids while being outside the earth.
19:53So, our detection systems will improve even more.
19:56And thirdly, even if we find such an asteroid which can collide with the earth,
20:00we already have systems to stop it.
20:05So, stop believing these fake news.
20:07And if you are interested in the topic of space,
20:10I have made many more videos on space before.
20:12There is a complete playlist.
20:13You can watch it by clicking here.
20:15Like this video which is on wormholes.
20:17How interstellar time travel can be possible through wormholes.
20:21You can watch it by clicking here.
20:23And the link to Scalar's live masterclass can be found in the description below.
20:26Thank you very much.