Musim Laporan Keuangan Dimulai, BBCA Catat Laba Semester I-2024 Tumbuh 11%

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (25/07/2024) dengan Tema Musim Laporan Keuangan Dimulai, BBCA Catat Laba Semester I-2024 Tumbuh 11%".

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00:00And to discuss more about the current market conditions,
00:03it has been connected via LINE ZOOM with Mr. Gembong Swito,
00:06Director of Education and Investment, Sahamology.
00:09Mr. Gembong, thank you very much for joining us today.
00:14Thank you, Mr. Fajar.
00:15Yes, Mr. Gembong, before we dig deeper,
00:17there was one of the emittents that seemed quite interesting
00:19related to the release of the financial report.
00:21But let's start with IHSG first.
00:23Mr. Gembong, yesterday IHSG was finally closed
00:25unable to reach the level of 7,300 again.
00:28And now it's at 7,262.
00:30What is the current position of IHSG?
00:34Okay, if we talk about IHSG,
00:36for the past year, it's been an anomaly.
00:40Usually, IHSG is an all-market operator.
00:45Like Big Bank, Telkom, Astra.
00:48But this year, IHSG operators are more on the side of conglomeration.
00:53For example, BP Group and others.
00:55That's why the movement of IHSG is very anomalous.
00:58If we talk about the current target of IHSG at 7,300,
01:04the target for this year, for example, in 2024,
01:07may be in the range of 7,500,
01:12maybe at the end of the year.
01:14But if the potential decline,
01:16especially in the sector of conglomeration companies,
01:20that can lower IHSG to the level of less than 7,000.
01:25Okay, the level of 7,000.
01:29And also yesterday, we learned that some securities
01:32broke the target of IHSG.
01:34It seems not as optimistic as at the beginning of the year.
01:36With the release of financial reports from a number of emittents,
01:39what will IHSG be like in the future,
01:41especially by the end of the year, Mr. Gembong?
01:43Okay, if we talk about the release of financial reports,
01:46thank God, it started from the king of BCA.
01:51That's a very good position.
01:53The big bank will also be positive.
01:55But when the big bank goes up,
01:58if the conglomeration companies, especially BP Group, go down,
02:02IHSG will go down because of the market cap.
02:06Okay, so the main movement from the conglomeration
02:09is that the market cap is quite large.
02:11And a number of emittents have been mentioned by Mr. Gembong.
02:15We start from BCA first, which was also mentioned earlier.
02:18It turns out that the growth is quite good.
02:21In the first semester of 2024, the market cap went up by 11.1%.
02:25Does this become a positive sign
02:28or a positive signal for the BCA itself?
02:32Okay, from the point of view of BCA itself,
02:35why is it called a wonderful company?
02:38Because this company always grows,
02:42especially on the bottom line, which is EPS or Earning Percent.
02:47The market cap goes up every year,
02:50even though the valuation is expensive.
02:54With BBV, for example, 5 per 2-3 is expensive.
02:57But why can this continue to grow?
02:59Because indeed, in business, in energy,
03:02it continues to require growth.
03:04For example, in Q2 2024, it was released earlier at 11.1%.
03:10That's very good.
03:12Why? Because if a company can grow,
03:15for example, in double digits, above 10%,
03:18it's already very good.
03:20And it's not easy.
03:21With the market size, BCA can still grow,
03:25it's already very good from a company's point of view.
03:27But in terms of price,
03:29now BCA is at least Rp10,000, the highest is Rp10,400.
03:33Based on the analysis consensus,
03:38this year it's around Rp11,000.
03:41But the current area, Rp10,000, is consolidative,
03:44which forms resistance.
03:47The position may move sideways first.
03:51If with this good financial report,
03:54it should be able to all-time high at Rp10,500.
03:58Something like that.
03:59But one thing we have to pay attention to
04:03is in terms of inflow,
04:06how consistent it is in or outflow.
04:09Right now, the outflow is still not too big.
04:13So, the movement of BCA itself will still be sideways
04:17in the area of Rp10,000, Rp9,800, up to Rp10,500 all-time high.
04:24The movement of BCA will still be sideways.
04:27This is what Mr. Gemoh said earlier, Rp9,800 up to Rp10,500.
04:31And this is a level that you can appreciate.
04:34But I'm also interested,
04:36Mr. Gemoh, can we review a little more about BCA's performance?
04:39The rate is increasing, the credit outflow is also increasing.
04:42This is in the first semester, 15.5% annually.
04:46Is this also a positive sign for BCA's fundamental performance?
04:50If the fundamental performance is very good,
04:53especially from the perspective of banking capital,
04:56especially in the credit outflow,
04:58it can grow 15.5%.
05:01In the big bank, BCA can achieve a target of 15.5%.
05:08This is very good.
05:09Especially in the current condition,
05:11where the BNKM segment,
05:13then the corporation with high relations,
05:16can still pass, can still grow 15.5%.
05:20This is very good in terms of the fundamental performance of the company.
05:23Okay, for the NPL, it's still quite safe, right?
05:26NPL at 2.2% is very safe.
05:29Compared to smaller industries,
05:31compared to other big banks,
05:33it's already above 3%.
05:35So with the NPL quality in BCA,
05:37I think it's very good at 2.2%.
05:39It's still safe.
05:40It's still quite safe from a fundamental perspective.
05:43Earlier, the level was actually mentioned by Mr. Gemoh,
05:46for the BCA stock.
05:47But actually, what can be recommended
05:50for IDF Channel friends for BCA?
05:53Okay, at the moment,
05:55of course, again,
05:57the price movement will be different
06:00with valuation or energy.
06:02If the current price is more likely to be corrected,
06:07healthy correction.
06:08Why?
06:09Because globally,
06:11both in America and in Asia,
06:14this morning, it was mostly opened negative.
06:17So, of course, the impact from the regional will also be affected.
06:23Especially from the big bank side,
06:25it will be more likely to be corrected or down.
06:28Okay, so some indicators can be observed.
06:32As for my friends or viewers,
06:34they always pay attention to the speed or movement of the BCA stock.
06:38But if we look at Mr. Gemoh,
06:39the BCA stock, as mentioned earlier,
06:41from the energy side or from the speed of the stock,
06:44does this make a difference for other big banks?
06:46Or is there a different side for other big banks?
06:50Well, this is interesting.
06:51Since 2024, the release of the P1 report,
06:55there is a statement.
06:56BCA can grow by double digits.
06:59While three other big banks,
07:02BRI, Mandiri, BNI,
07:05it only grows by single digits.
07:08Even today, the release of BRI,
07:11BRI can only grow 1.13%.
07:18Very thin.
07:19Although in terms of value,
07:21one semester is equivalent to 29.9 trillion.
07:26So if the growth analysis expectation,
07:30for example, I want to grow by double digits,
07:34this is not achieved in BWMN,
07:37especially the big banks in the first semester.
07:40In the second quarter, it's the same.
07:45They will mostly be positive,
07:48only the growth rate is thin.
07:51Single digit.
07:52And it started from BRI, which is 1.13%.
07:57This will burden them in terms of price.
08:00Okay, we can compare the growth
08:03between Big Cap 1 and others.
08:06But for BRI itself,
08:08with the growth that was only thin,
08:10is the stock itself still interesting, Mr. Gembong?
08:13If in terms of valuation,
08:15fundamental or energy,
08:17this is very interesting.
08:19Why?
08:20First, the average consensus analysis
08:22is at the level of Rp5,900 to Rp6,000
08:25for the next 12 months.
08:27But what happens?
08:29The price movement on the BRI side
08:32is outflow or inflow.
08:35Since mid-March 2024,
08:42foreign investors in 2.5 months
08:45continue to sell or outflow.
08:48This is what pushes the BRI down
08:51from the highest level of Rp6,450
08:54at the time of March,
08:56to the lowest of Rp4,090.
09:00Today, the BRI is around Rp4,700.
09:05Yesterday, it was Rp4,900.
09:08But because of the financial report release,
09:11if we talk about growth or not,
09:13but the expectation of the analysis
09:15is usually higher than that,
09:17below the consensus.
09:19This is what causes the BRI position
09:21to be relatively prone to correction.
09:24In addition,
09:25from the financial report,
09:27there is a trend for non-performing loans,
09:30or NPL.
09:32From Rp1 to Rp3.2,
09:35currently Rp3.4.
09:37If that becomes the focus of the investor,
09:40then the tendency of the BRI will be more corrective.
09:44Okay, what is your recommendation for the BRI, Mr. Gembong?
09:47Gradually.
09:48We talk about the valuation,
09:50it's quite interesting.
09:51Fundamentally, it's okay.
09:53But this is a temporary corrective.
09:57At Rp4,600, Rp4,700,
10:01we have started to recommend
10:03gradually.
10:05Or DCA.
10:07Okay, gradually.
10:09That was Mr. Gembong's recommendation.
10:12But once again,
10:14we will return the decision to each of you.
10:18Apart from the bank,
10:19Mr. Gembong, what financial reports
10:21can we discuss?
10:23But later, after the break,
10:25we will continue to discuss,
10:26and the auditors will stay with us.
10:27We will be right back.
10:33Thank you.