Kamis (18/7/2024), IHSG parkir di 7.321,07 menguat 1,34% dan berhasil menyentuh kembali level psikologis 7.300. Investor asing mencatat beli bersih jumbo Rp1,16 T di seluruh pasar. Penguatan ditopang BREN +11,90% dan perbankan Big Caps BBCA +3,06%
Dari global, Wall Street anjlok Kamis (18/7), membalikkan kenaikan sebelumnya. Ketiga indeks saham utama AS alami kerugian. Dow Jones catatkan penurunan terbesar, menghentikan rekor penutupan tertinggi berturut-turut.
Dari global, Wall Street anjlok Kamis (18/7), membalikkan kenaikan sebelumnya. Ketiga indeks saham utama AS alami kerugian. Dow Jones catatkan penurunan terbesar, menghentikan rekor penutupan tertinggi berturut-turut.
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TVTranscript
00:00And next we will look at the economic agenda, which you can watch on the television screen for an interesting economic agenda for us to discuss this morning.
00:09Among them are, from the United States, there is the Logan Fed, then there is the FedBalanceSheet, there is the FOMC Dali, and also some of the FOMC members, including Bowman, Williams, and Postik.
00:23From Japan, there is IHK Inti Nasional Jepang in June 2024.
00:30From Malaysia, there is the PDB data from Malaysia.
00:32Then there is also from the UK, retail sales of Inti year-on-year monitoring in June.
00:39Then also from Europe, there is data about the price index produced in Germany.
00:47Then there is the EBITDA agenda, which is also interesting for us to discuss today.
00:52Among them is, the CTRA will issue a cash dividend payment, then the same thing will also be done by the BRPT, TECIM, INKP.
01:05Meanwhile, the BRPT will issue a cash dividend payment, and so will the SMA and DOIT.
01:16Next, we will take a look at the data from the main ASEAN exchanges this morning.
01:22For the main ASEAN exchanges, in Bukamix, the exchange with Nikkei opened 0.2% at level 40,208.53.
01:35SCIC Singapore opened 0.4% at level 3,448.9.
01:40KOSPI Korea opened 1.2% at level 2,790.59.
01:46And Hang Seng Hong Kong opened 0.88% at level 17,622.
02:00And to discuss this morning at MarketBus, there is Mr. Reza Priyambada, Director PT Reliance Security Indonesia TBK.
02:08Good morning, Mr. Reza.
02:10Good morning, Mr. Reza.
02:12Good morning, sir.
02:14Good morning, sir.
02:16Thank you for joining us at MarketBus this morning, Mr. Reza. I hope you are doing well.
02:21Yes, I'm doing well, sir.
02:24All right. It is said that the movement of the ISG at the closing of yesterday's hearing was stronger than 1% and again reached the level of 7,300.
02:32How do you see the movement of the ISG yesterday and how will it be reflected in the closing to the weekend on Friday, Mr. Reza?
02:43Yes, thank you, sir.
02:45So, if we look at the movement of the ISG yesterday, which was finally able to reach the psychological level of 7,300,
02:55there was a lot of domination by the strength in the big cap shares.
03:00First, in some of the food stocks.
03:05Then, in some other sectors, such as the local energy sector, infrastructure, it also experienced an increase.
03:14The increase was also supported by the sentiment of strengthening the value of our Rupiah exchange rate against USD.
03:22After the Bank of Indonesia finally decided to maintain its equilibrium level.
03:29So, that's what finally made the market players still tend to be in the market in the trading yesterday.
03:37Okay. Indeed, there are many sentiments that make the ISG shrink above 7,300.
03:44How will the ISG then remain at the level of 7,300 in the period, at least this may be projected until next week, Mr. Reza?
03:55Yes, okay. So, if we look at the chart of the ISG, the ISG actually fell to the highest level at the level of 7,330.
04:06Then, in the previous trading, the ISG fell to the lowest level on the 18th.
04:23After the 17th, it fell to the lowest level at the level of 7,200.
04:27Then, in yesterday's trading, on the 18th, the ISG experienced a significant drop.
04:34Then, if we compare it with the current sentiment, the movement of European and American companies is not very good.
04:47Especially in European companies, the movement is also quite negative after the ISG did not make any changes to the level of 7,300.
04:57Then, in the United States itself, the weakening in several sectors can also affect the movement.
05:09So, if we look at today's movement, it is possible that the ISG can be reversed.
05:16Because it has already been shown on the screen, right?
05:19That in Asian companies, only Hang Seng and other ASEAN companies are negative.
05:30This is what the market players use yesterday's increase for profit banking.
05:38If we look at the movement of the ISG, it is also supported or supported by the stock movement of brands that want to go above 11 percent.
05:47After the deep correction a few times ago.
05:50At this time, maybe for investors who are quite interested in entering the brand,
05:59even if they want to enter, even if the goods are there,
06:04is the price already too expensive or are you waiting for a correction?
06:11Yes, if you look at the chart movement, yesterday the brand experienced an increase of 11 percent in the level of 8,700.
06:23Where before it was 7,100.
06:32So, if from the level of yesterday's increase, it is actually still lower than the movement a few weeks ago.
06:42So, if we look at the movement, sometimes we pull back from the beginning of July, for example.
06:48The movement at the beginning of July, on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd of July, the movement is between 9,700 to 10,700.
06:59So, with yesterday's increase, it is actually still lower than the increase at the beginning of July.
07:06Even if we pull back in May or June, the brand movement was at the level of 12,000.
07:17So, I think with yesterday's increase, there is still a potential upside for the brand to increase.
07:29So, for those who don't have a brand yet, maybe you can pay attention to today's support at the level of 7,525.
07:44For today's potential upsides, the resistance is between 8,750 to 8,825.
07:58Okay, the last level is at 8,700, but what is the reasonable price for the brand itself?
08:03Mr. Reza, in terms of target price, what do you think is the level for the brand itself?
08:09Actually, for the brand, our research team estimates the movement of the brand at around 10,500.
08:21At how much, Mr. Reza?
08:23At 10,500.
08:26Okay, is that for the target or the reasonable price?
08:30For the target price.
08:33Until the end of the year, right?
08:35Yes.
08:36Okay, Mr. Reza, we will continue our discussion and we will be back soon.
08:42Thank you for joining us and I am still talking with Mr. Reza Priyambada, Director of PT Reliance Securitas Indonesia.
08:49And we will look at the options this morning that Mr. Reza recommended.
08:54For example, there is DMR with support at 1,260, resistance at 1,420 with a speculative buy recommendation, PTBA.
09:02With support at 2,420, resistance at 2,760, buy recommendation, PGEO.
09:08Support at 1,175, then resistance at 1,380, buy recommendation.
09:13And after PGEO, we have SMGR with support at 3,720, resistance at 4,370 with a speculative buy recommendation.
09:24Let's go to the DMR first. Mr. Reza, what is the complete analysis like?
09:31Thank you, Mr. Eke.
09:32So, from our research team, looking at the movement of the DMR,
09:36indeed, if we look at the last few days, the movement of the DMR is still sideways.
09:43But in the previous session, if we look at the movement of the DMR, it was able to fight,
09:50it was reflected from the support line.
09:54Then, from the stochastic indicator, it also reversed to Golden Cross.
10:01Then followed by an increase in volume.
10:04So, for support, it was mentioned earlier, support at 1,260.
10:08Then for resistance at 1,400 to 1,420.
10:12Maybe for the entry level, it can be at 1,330 while at 1,345.
10:17Okay, so the last level at 1,345 can directly enter when the market is open like that.
10:24In one week, it has weakened by 0.37% and in one month it has also weakened by 0.37%.
10:30This is for the recommendation, the term of investment is medium-long or short, Mr. Reza, for the DMR?
10:36It's a bit short.
10:38Okay, as far as I know, Adaro Minerals or ADMR increased by 36% in Q1 2024.
10:46But so far, it is still recommended to play for a short period for ADMR.
10:51From ADMR, we go to PTBA. What is the analysis like, Mr. Reza?
10:56Yes, from the PTBA side, if we look at the movement of this PTBA stock, it has managed to break out.
11:03The resistance after moving sideways.
11:08Then if we look at it, there is still a gap up in PTBA, so we hope that the gap up can be closed by PTBA.
11:18Then if we look at it from other indicators, it's the same as in the previous ADMR.
11:26Previously, the stock was at 2460, then it dropped to 2740, then it dropped to 2760.
11:40Maybe for the entry level, it can be observed at levels between 2590 and 2620.
11:47Okay, at the moment, the level is moving at 1.15%.
11:52Still pushing for strength or strengthening for PTBA.
11:58And if we look at the movement, from one month it has strengthened 9.5% and one week it has strengthened 4.74%.
12:05Is it the same as the recommendation for a short period for PTBA or do you see another view, Mr. Reza?
12:09Yes, you have to look at it for a short period, according to your recommendation.
12:19Okay, so all four are recommended for a short period.
12:23Is there a special consideration as to why these four stocks are recommended for a short period,
12:29Mr. Reza, to take advantage of the momentum of PTBA's strength to realize profits or what?
12:34Yes, because we also see it from a fair sentiment.
12:39Especially in the middle of the ESG momentum, which experienced a significant increase,
12:44it can be used by the market to profit taking.
12:51So we can recommend it for a short period.
12:54Although from the energy side, it may be very good.
13:00But in terms of trading, we may see it as a short period.
13:08Just a short period, okay.
13:10From PTBA, we go to PGEO.
13:13What is the analysis like, Mr. Reza?
13:18Yes, from PGEO, if we look at it,
13:21we can see that the momentum from this is still able to survive above the MA200.
13:28Then we also see that there is still a potential for limited strengthening.
13:33Then from the stochastic side, it is already in the oversold area.
13:39So we hope that the momentum from PGEO can experience an increase.
13:44Then for support at 11.75%, then resistance at 13.50% to 13.80%.
13:53Maybe for the entry level, it can be observed at the level between 12.70% to 12.85%.
13:59Okay, in terms of revenue growth, maybe for investors who see this PGEO as interesting,
14:06then in the collection, from the revenue growth indicator year-on-year, it has grown 5.24%.
14:14In 2022, the growth was 4.6%.
14:18Then in 2021, it was 4.2%.
14:21But in 2020, it was corrected for the revenue, 46.92%.
14:29Okay, from PGEO, we go to the next stock.
14:32And the last one from you, Mr. Reza, there is SEMEN Indonesia, what is it like?
14:40Yes, SMGR, if we look at it, the momentum is already below.
14:48But from the technical indicators, we see that the momentum from SMGR is testing at MA60.
14:57So we hope and anticipate if there is a breakout in SMGR.
15:04Then if we look from the MSCD side, this is also seen in the Golden Cross area.
15:12Then the support product at 13.70%, then the resistance at 4.320% to 4.370%.
15:22So for entry level, it can be observed at levels between 4.030% and 4.090%.
15:29Okay, that was the SMSUM recommended by Mr. Reza this morning.
15:34There are ADMR, PTBA, PGEO, then also SMGR, and it is recommended for short-term trading only.
15:41Okay, Mr. Reza, we still have one segment, we will continue the next session.
15:45And you stay with us, we will be back soon.
15:48Thank you for staying with us, Mr. Mirsa.
15:51And I am still talking with Mr. Reza Priyambada, Director of PT Reliance Securitas Indonesia TBK.
15:56And we will look at the opening data from Bursa Efek Indonesia or perhaps IHSG that we passed through from RTI, Mr. Mirsa.
16:05Yes, for IHSG itself, it moves at a negative level.
16:10It had a negative level, then it recorded a weakness at 0.43%, then it recorded the highest level at 7.321%.
16:170.071% weakness, or it had reached the lowest level in this morning's trading at 7.283.991%.
16:28And the top gainers, there are ADARO, BOGA, BSBK, ISEA, GUNA, KPI, GEINDI, BLESS, IBOS, then ABMM.
16:36Meanwhile, the losers are PSAB, BUKA, WIFI, PG, and AHAB.
16:44Okay, Mr. Reza, how do you see the opening of IHSG this morning?
16:55Hello, Mr. Reza.
16:56Yes, so if we look at the movement of IHSG today, as we said at the beginning,
17:07that the movement of IHSG which is significant at 1.34% is indeed prone to profit taking.
17:16Moreover, the sentiment is also not fully supportive, especially from the movement of Asian and global companies.
17:23Even though, if we look at the news of MITEN, MITEN's corporate action,
17:30the news is very positive.
17:34However, it is not strong enough to withstand the selling action of the markets.
17:40So, it tends to experience a weakness.
17:51But we hope that this weakness can be limited, so that it does not interfere with the bullish trend in IHSG.
18:05Yes, and hopefully the weakness is not too deep.
18:10Okay, even though there was a little signal, but we can still conclude from what you said, Mr. Reza.
18:17Thank you for joining us at MarketBus.
18:21Good luck and stay healthy, Mr. Reza. See you.