IHSG dan Rupiah Anjlok di Awal Kuartal II 2024
IHSG anjlok 1,75% ke 7.161,5 sesi I Senin (1/4). Pelemahan IHSG disokong seluruh indeks sektoral. IDX Sektor Keuangan -3,16% dengan saham BBRI -3,31%, BMRI -5,52%, BBCA -2,23%, BBNI -4,66%. Bahkan BRIS dan BBTN turun 7,01% dan 6,11% penghuni top losser LQ45. Dari komoditas, harga emas kembali menyentuh new ATH intraday di perdagangan hari ini.
Dari global, bursa saham Wall Street sepanjang pekan lalu cenderung bervariasi, di tengah minimnya sentimen pasar pekan lalu. Terbaru, inflasi meningkat sesuai dengan ekspektasi pada periode Februari lalu, kemungkinan membuat The Fed menahan diri sebelum mulai mempertimbangkan penurunan suku bunga.
Dari global, bursa saham Wall Street sepanjang pekan lalu cenderung bervariasi, di tengah minimnya sentimen pasar pekan lalu. Terbaru, inflasi meningkat sesuai dengan ekspektasi pada periode Februari lalu, kemungkinan membuat The Fed menahan diri sebelum mulai mempertimbangkan penurunan suku bunga.
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00:18 This is the latest information on your television screen.
00:20 And now we are connected on Zoom with Mr. Mohamad Waffie,
00:24 a Research Analyst at the Indonesian Security Agency.
00:27 We will continue with Mr. Waffie. Good evening. How are you?
00:30 Good evening, Mr. David. I'm fine, thank you, sir.
00:34 Thank you, Mr Waffie. It seems that you've been spending some time on IDX Channel.
00:37 It seems that the situation is not good for Indecargas Kambungan.
00:40 Especially in the trading on the first day of the quarter, on the second day in 2024.
00:46 Today, the situation is weak enough in you, Mr. Waffie.
00:48 Although in a few minutes after the closure, the production is more limited.
00:52 Earlier, it was 71.37, now it's 64.
00:56 Your analysis from the technical side of the weakening that happened today,
01:00 has it been able to stop the bullish trend?
01:03 When previously Indecargas Kambungan also touched the highest level of intraday and closures in the long run.
01:08 Yes, actually if we look at the price position itself,
01:13 the level of IHSG currently that makes the lower low level has already marked the bullish trend.
01:19 It may even have entered the bearish phase.
01:23 However, if we add a few other indicators,
01:26 for example as a confirmation such as volume transaction,
01:30 actually the correction that happened today has not confirmed the bearish phase of IHSG.
01:36 Why is that? Because if we look at the volume of IHSG transactions,
01:40 the trend is still below average, quite low.
01:43 And that has happened in the last two weeks.
01:46 And indeed, historically, this usually happens during long holidays.
01:52 In my year, there are two holidays, Eid and New Year holidays.
01:59 Usually there is an indication of the tendency of IHSG movement with a fairly low volume.
02:04 And this fairly low volume can mean two things.
02:08 The first is the position of IHSG movement that is generally stable, stagnant or sideways.
02:13 And the second is the IHSG volatility then increases higher than usual.
02:19 And by looking at the significant price drop today,
02:23 it seems to be heading to the second scenario,
02:25 where we will see the confirmation after the long holiday.
02:30 Okay, in the next few weeks, sir, for the next four trading days,
02:33 the long holiday road, where is the trend of the combined index?
02:36 Is the range of movement also relatively narrow?
02:38 The correctional space is still quite open, but more towards the limit?
02:42 Or is there a chance for a small rebound for IHSG?
02:46 Okay, my first data is that the IHSG pressure is quite deep today, at around 1.4%.
02:53 Then my second data is that we see that all sectors are under pressure.
02:58 And the third is that if we look at the sector that can be said to be quite deep,
03:04 it is the banking sector, where the banking sector has the largest market capitalization
03:10 among other sectors in the IHSG.
03:12 From the three charts, I see that there is still a potential correction in IHSG.
03:17 At least this is to test the support level of MA200, which is around level 7100.
03:23 That is the support level in IHSG at the moment.
03:27 With the resistance level, it looks like it's only this week, it's around level 7280.
03:35 Mr. Awafi, from the road sector, you mentioned the finance sector today seems to be a burden,
03:41 especially Samsung, the big cap bank, today experienced a fairly deep correction,
03:45 after touching the intraday level and the highest coverage in the long term
03:49 and becoming a support for the combined index.
03:51 The tendency in recent times is quite stressed, sir.
03:55 What is your recommendation to Samsung, the big cap bank?
03:58 Is it a good time to enter, where we are still waiting for the release of the first quarter of 2024?
04:05 And coincidentally, Mr. Awafi, there is a question that came in our WhatsApp interactive.
04:08 I will try to check first.
04:10 There is Mr. Victor from Malang.
04:16 Big bank stocks, can they be bought with a deep correction throughout the day?
04:21 I want to go to the BBRI first, sir, your analysis for the BBRI.
04:26 Yes, for the BBRI, if we look at the potential for correction, it still exists.
04:32 The bioweakness strategy can still be done.
04:34 But I do see a lower price level than the current price position.
04:39 The current price position is at 5,925.
04:42 While for the entry, I suggest approaching the level of around 5,700
04:46 which I think is quite right to enter the BBRI.
04:52 Meanwhile, for the closest resistance level, it is currently at 6,000.
04:57 Okay, 5,700 entry level for the BBRI.
05:00 For Mr. Victor, the closing price today is 5,925.
05:03 There is still a drop in resistance.
05:06 It's at 7,000, right?
05:08 The closest is at 6,200.
05:11 6,200 first. Okay, there is still room.
05:12 So the weakening position today is a discount and a continuation weakness for the BKB Bank, right, Mr. Wafi?
05:18 Yes, that's right. There is still a potential for a continuation weakness.
05:21 Okay, BBRI, sir. Today, the correction is also 4.83%, 6,900.
05:26 What is the entry level?
05:28 Yes, for the BBRI, if we look at it now, 6,900, we must see that there is still a potential upside.
05:34 At least this is towards level 6,600.
05:38 I think it's a level that's quite right if you want to enter the BBRI again.
05:44 With the closest resistance level currently at level 7,200.
05:49 Okay, moving to the BBNI, Mr. Wafi.
05:53 Today it also weakened 5,650.
05:56 Just now it was 4,25% to 5,550 for the BBNI.
06:00 Yes, for the BBNI, it's actually closer to the support level.
06:05 I see the support level is currently at level 5,500.
06:09 It has also become the lowest level in 2024, so the support level in January.
06:16 5,500 is the support level.
06:19 While for the closest resistance level, I see it at level 5,650.
06:24 The valuation from several other BKB banks, BBNI, is still the cheapest, Mr. Wafi?
06:31 That's right, David. So if we compare it, among the four big banks,
06:36 BBNI is still the cheapest.
06:39 Okay, what about the BBCA?
06:41 The last 9850 weakened by 2.23% entry level,
06:45 with the use of the resulting weakening.
06:48 For the BBCA, I see here for the entry level,
06:52 it can be found at level 9,700.
06:55 That's the support area for the BBCA.
06:58 While for the closest resistance level, it's at least at level 10,000.
07:02 Okay, analysis for the BKB Bank's shares, the BBCA,
07:05 which today weakened quite deeply and became a burden for the community stock market.
07:09 And at the same time, answering the question from Mr. Victor from Malang.
07:13 And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the BBCA.
07:17 Okay, Mr. Wafi, while waiting for the closing update in the second session,
07:21 from the commodities, today is also quite interesting, Mr. Hargamas,
07:24 again touching the highest level, both intraday
07:27 and from the closing position throughout today's trade.
07:31 How is your analysis?
07:33 Meanwhile, I also see that the shares based on the commodity market today,
07:37 the movement is quite varied, sir.
07:39 Although there are some shares that are still able to survive in the green zone.
07:43 We go to the BKK Bank first, Mr. Wafi, your analysis.
07:47 Yes, so if we look at the BKK Bank,
07:50 the current price position is actually closer to the support level.
07:58 If we look at the support level, it is at level 2200,
08:03 that is the support level for the BKK Bank.
08:05 But indeed, to return to the bullish phase,
08:08 the BKK Bank must be able to break out at level 2450,
08:12 at least it becomes the closest resistance level for the BKK Bank.
08:15 Okay, from the BKK Bank, we move to Antam, sir.
08:19 I will try to check first,
08:22 back to the red zone,
08:24 especially entering the second session of trading,
08:27 the pressure is quite deep, but in the last minutes of the second session closing today,
08:31 the weakness is more to the limit,
08:33 although still at 1.25%.
08:35 Coincidentally, there is also Mr. Bob from Jakarta asking Antam,
08:39 support and resistance, how much can it be?
08:43 Yes, for Antam, as far as I can see,
08:45 the current correction has begun to be limited.
08:48 The support area is at 1550 to 1500,
08:52 so it can start if you want to fill entry for Antam, it can be from 1550.
08:57 Meanwhile, for the resistance level itself,
09:00 I see this is the closest resistance level,
09:02 it is at level 1700,
09:07 that is the closest resistance level for the bank.
09:09 Okay, the response from the gold maintenance is quite varied, sir.
09:13 So it depends on how much gold is in each business line that is run.
09:19 Does this affect you, Mr. Wafi?
09:21 Yes, of course it will affect, Mr. David.
09:24 Especially not only the price of gold, but also the outlook,
09:27 the potential for gold prices in the future.
09:30 Okay.
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