IHSG Anjlok Hampir 2%, Sell in May and Go Away Dimulai
IHSG ditutup melorot 1,63% ke 7.116,59 di sesi I Kamis (2/5). Sembilan indeks sektoral masuk zona merah dengan sektor keuangan -2,68% terbebani saham BMRI -8,70%, BBNI -6,29% dan BBRI -4,05%. Saham LQ45 MAPI -10,4% dan PTBA -4,62% pasca rilis kinerja. Saham BREN menguat tembus New ATH intraday di Rp. 9.825 meski kinerja melemah dikuartal I 2024, bahkan kapitalisasai BREN kembali salip BBCA.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir variatif, Rabu, setelah The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan sesuai ekspektasi, dan menegaskan tidak ada kenaikan suku bunga di 2024 dan menunggu lebih banyak data pendukung, sebelum memangkas suku bunga.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street berakhir variatif, Rabu, setelah The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan sesuai ekspektasi, dan menegaskan tidak ada kenaikan suku bunga di 2024 dan menunggu lebih banyak data pendukung, sebelum memangkas suku bunga.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for those of you who are still with us, and in this segment we will review how the trading process has been throughout the day,
00:07especially in the middle of the collapse of the Samkabungan real estate industry, and previously had to leave the physical level at around 7,100.
00:13And we remind you again, you can still participate in our interactive WhatsApp at 0821-8788-3723, as shown on your television screen later.
00:24And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Hadrian Maynartaslim, Associate Director, Chief Executive of Capital Security.
00:32We will go straight to you, Mr. Hadrian. Good afternoon, how are you, sir?
00:36Good afternoon, how are you, Mr. Evin?
00:38Thank you, Mr. Hadrian, for taking the time on the IDA channel.
00:41It looks like the news is not good, Mr. Hadrian, for the Samkabungan real estate industry.
00:45Today, Samkabungan experienced a fairly deep weakness.
00:48Intraday, earlier it had a weakness of over 2% and had to leave the level of 7,100.
00:55Today's position is still under pressure, but it is more towards the limit, although the category of weakness is still quite deep.
01:02Your analysis?
01:05Yes, this ISG is under quite a lot of pressure, especially I think from foreign investors.
01:12Because we can see from the last quarter, foreign investors have accumulated sales of up to 17 trillion, so it is still quite steep.
01:19The policy from the FOMC yesterday, in fact, by not increasing the flower rate, it is quite good.
01:27Although investors hope that the Fed will cut the flower rate this year.
01:31However, looking at the US inflation data, it is not too good.
01:35The Fed can't make sure when it will cut the flower rate.
01:39This directly puts pressure on the banks.
01:45Even BNI and Mandiri, their turnover is more than 2 trillion, so the pressure is quite big.
01:54ISG support is actually at 7,132, at MA10 it has been cut, so the next psychological support is at 7,000.
02:01We hope that tomorrow ISG can survive above the level of 7,000.
02:07The event may still weaken on Friday, but we hope that the weakening will be limited to above 7,000.
02:13We will see the resistance at the level of MA50, at 7,260.
02:18When the support is below 7,000, where will it go, Mr. Adrian?
02:22Actually, we both don't expect this.
02:25Yes, if below 7,000, the next support is in the 6,900 area, in the weakening area in November 2023.
02:35That will be the next support, at 6,900.
02:38We hope to survive above 7,000, Mr. David.
02:42Because if it goes there, the downtrend will be quite severe.
02:46Okay, Mr. Adrian, what is quite interesting is the cycle of years, Mr. Adrian.
02:50Sell in May, go away.
02:52Today is the first trading day in May and internal correction has begun.
02:58What is your analysis? Has it started or is it just a healthy correction?
03:04The profit taking that happened is also related to some global negative sentiment.
03:09Yes, if I look at the sell in May and go away, it's actually more in the direction of historical data.
03:15Indeed, in May, if we look at the last ten years,
03:187 times May was covered by a weakening, red, 3 times green.
03:24So actually, sorry, not 7 times, but 7 times red and 5 times green in the last 12 years.
03:33So actually this is a bit, because it tends to be more often red, people sell in May and go away.
03:39Actually, it's not.
03:40That's because actually there is a macroeconomic global data.
03:43Some recession economies are at the level of the flower tree, right?
03:47And the global recession is still haunting and the Middle East conflict.
03:52But actually, May is also under pressure because it's the right time for Ngaporno Keuangan to be released, the full year.
04:00So there are a lot of gaps.
04:03Like Ngaporno Keuangan, it's like a weakening, suddenly a weakening, or a strengthening.
04:08So May tends to be because of the cycle of years from Ngaporno earnings,
04:13Ngaporno Keuangan publication and from the global side.
04:17So I think May this year is still uncertain, still 50-50.
04:21So it's uncertain, sell in May is uncertain too.
04:23Yes, because today is the first day of trading in May 2024.
04:28Mr. Hadrian, from the review of Indekargasam Kabungan, the sectoral movement rotation,
04:33today is also quite interesting, we pay attention to it, although the interesting thing is the bad news.
04:39The financial sector today has weakened Indekargasam Kabungan, has become a burden,
04:45because today the shares are experiencing quite a deep correction,
04:49even this deep correction has been happening for a long time,
04:53no incident like today, I mean, Mr. Hadrian.
04:56BMRI, sir, today experienced quite a deep weakness,
05:00earlier, in an intraday, it was above 11%, the closing position of the second session weakened by 8.33%.
05:06And coincidentally, there is a question on our interactive WhatsApp,
05:09I will try to read it, Mr. Inder from Bali,
05:12want to enter BMRI, how much is it recommended?
05:16Analysis for BMRI, Mr. Hadrian, in the middle of a deep correction,
05:20has it been recommended to enter, or is BMRI still prone to correction to a lower level?
05:27Yes, actually BMRI has already pulled support, in my language,
05:32so actually BMRI, I have a recommendation to buy,
05:35earlier in the IDX stock that we entered,
05:37which is in the 6100-675 area, with a support of 5.975, and a resistance of 6.650.
05:47So, for BMRI, I will speculate to buy.
05:49But this is still a speculation first,
05:51it is better if tomorrow it is confirmed to hold above the 6300 area,
05:55above the support, the trading buy is more confirmed.
06:00Because actually fundamentally,
06:02BMRI, Q1 2024, the price increase by 1.13% year-on-year.
06:08Indeed, the increase may be below expectations,
06:10because it is only 10%, but actually it is still profitable,
06:13even the price increase is still good,
06:16the income grew by 13% to Rp35 trillion,
06:20and the flower income rose by 5% to Rp24 trillion.
06:23So actually, the performance is still good,
06:26but maybe the growth is below expectations.
06:29So, for me, BMRI is still profitable,
06:31you can pay attention, you can speculate to buy,
06:33if there is a 6300 area, the position can be increased.
06:37Okay, at the same time, answering Mr. Inder's question from Bali,
06:40BMRI at the end of the second session,
06:42the weakness is more towards the limit,
06:44it can be 8.33%, even though it is still a category of deep weakness,
06:48it means there is resistance in this matter.
06:50For BBNI, sir, today also experienced a deep weakness,
06:54just a brief technical analysis, Mr. Hadrian,
06:574830 weakness at 8%.
07:00BBNI has also tested support, track support,
07:03the next support is at 4720,
07:05the resistance will be at 5200 at M80.
07:08So for BBNI, it's the same, accept it,
07:10you can correct, speculate to buy,
07:12with the stock price at 4720,
07:15with the closest target at M80 at 5200.
07:18Okay, next for BBRI, Mr. Hadrian,
07:21weakness at 3.64% from 4 to 4.7%.
07:24If we flashback, before the mid-week break,
07:27BBRI was previously a supporter,
07:29Indekar Gasa combined with a significant increase.
07:31Profit taking happened for BBRI, sir?
07:33Yes, I think this is more in the direction of day trading,
07:37taking advantage of technical rebound in BBRI.
07:40But just like Mandiri, fundamentally still wise, still good, still growing,
07:44even though it was below expectations yesterday,
07:46because the NPL rose a little.
07:48But you can correct, for me, it's still the same,
07:51speculate to buy, the next support is at 4640,
07:54with the closest target at M80 at 5050.
08:00That's for BBNI.
08:02Okay, Sam Sam's analysis of the B-CAP bank today
08:04became the focus of Indekar Gasa combined,
08:07recommendation, support, and resistance,
08:09and also the strategy in the midst of the weakness that occurred,
08:11and again, the decision to invest,
08:13is still in the hands of the IDX channel.
08:15And at the same time, I also received a question from Mr. Inder from Bali.
08:18Thank you for joining us.
08:20In addition to the B-CAP bank,
08:22several stocks today released their performance.
08:25In this case, Mr. Hadrian's METAN,
08:29and its position today is quite high,
08:31and is generally dominated by commodities.
08:33Including also from the mining of Batu Barapa, PTBA,
08:36from the position of the laba's performance,
08:38this has experienced a significant decrease in intraday.
08:41Intraday today had a weakness above 8% earlier.
08:45Today's closing, 2890,
08:47weakening at 4.62%.
08:49Sandak's analysis for PTBA.
08:51PTBA's net profit fell by 31%,
08:55to 790 million in Q1 2024.
08:58Indeed, this immediately became a negative sentiment.
09:00But actually, this is still a profit.
09:03And this is only Q1 actually.
09:05So there is still a lot of spare this year.
09:09This is also due to the increase in the price of Batu Barapa itself.
09:11In 2023, there will be a lot of METAN from Batu Barapa,
09:15it will definitely be a correction in the future.
09:17Because of the decrease in the price of commodities too.
09:19But the call is starting to rebound again,
09:21so I feel optimistic that PTBA can improve its performance
09:24throughout this year.
09:25Can we go straight to technical, Mr. Hadrian? PTBA?
09:28PTBA, PTBA can be seen now,
09:31it rebounded from MA10,
09:33with the closest target being in the 3000 area.
09:37With the closest support being at 2860,
09:40or the lowest price today.
09:42Okay, analysis for PTBA,
09:44which today released their performance
09:46and was negatively responded to,
09:48poor performance throughout the first quarter of 2024.
09:51And again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of Pemirsa Idea Channel.