IHSG menguat 0,86% ke 7.256,996 di Jumat (9/8). Meski menguat IHSG masih melemah 0,70% sepekan. Sektor barang baku +1,62%, saham AMMN menguat signifikan di 7,25%. Indeks LQ45 menguat 1,03% ke level 908,131. Nilai tukar rupiah -0,20% ke Rp15.955/USD namun secara mingguan +1,5%.
Dari global, Wall Street finis ke zona hijau di akhir pekan, bangkit dari penurunan tajam di awal pekan dipicu kekhawatiran resesi di AS. Di pekan ini, pelaku pasar nantikan rilis data inflasi AS juli 2024, yang diperkirakan akan turun jadi 2,9% yoy di Juli 2024 dari sebelumnya 3% yoy.
Dari global, Wall Street finis ke zona hijau di akhir pekan, bangkit dari penurunan tajam di awal pekan dipicu kekhawatiran resesi di AS. Di pekan ini, pelaku pasar nantikan rilis data inflasi AS juli 2024, yang diperkirakan akan turun jadi 2,9% yoy di Juli 2024 dari sebelumnya 3% yoy.
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TVTranscript
00:00We will now take a look at the interesting economic agenda for us to discuss.
00:09As you can see on the television screen, there is data on Singapore's GDP quarter-on-quarter,
00:14year-on-year, and also from China.
00:17There is also data on circulation, and there is also an OPEC monthly report from the United States.
00:26There is also an investment expectancy for consumers,
00:30a three-month debt record, and a six-month debt record.
00:34And also from Europe, there is a payment deadline in June.
00:43The next is the ME10 agenda.
00:48For the CRJ, it is to inform the European Commission on the Prosperity and Prosperity of The Republic of Indonesia.
00:57Meanwhile, for AMAR, it is the date of the Interim Cash Dividend.
01:03Then, the next is the PSSI, the date of the Interim Cash Dividend.
01:09Then, there is also BSBK, the date of the Interim Cash Dividend.
01:14And also MORA, the date of the Interim Cash Dividend,
01:18for the series that you can see on the television screen.
01:26And the next is for Asia's major exchanges this morning,
01:29as you can see on the television screen.
01:32For Asia's major exchanges this morning,
01:35Bukamix with Nikkei opened 0.56%,
01:38at level 35,025,
01:40SDI Singapore opened 0.63%,
01:43at level 3,291,
01:45Kospi Korea opened 1.17%,
01:48at level 2,618,
01:50and also Hang Seng Hongkong opened 1.17%,
01:53at level 17,090.
02:03And in this Market Plus, I will discuss with Ms. Rizka Friani,
02:06who is the Capital Market Manager.
02:08How are you, Ms. Rizka? Good morning.
02:10Good morning, Mr. Wiki.
02:12Alhamdulillah, I'm healthy.
02:14How are you?
02:15I'm fine, thank you for joining us.
02:17It seems that the IASG has improved
02:21in the closing of the Pekan trading.
02:23It certainly weakened significantly at the beginning of Pekan.
02:26What do you think is the analysis,
02:28what is the cause, and what is the sentiment?
02:30And is it related to the concern of a recession in America
02:35or is it related to what will be done by the Fed?
02:40What is your analysis, Ms. Rizka?
02:42Yes, I see that the IASG,
02:45at the beginning of Pekan,
02:47had a decline of up to 4%.
02:50This is also directly correlated to the psychological level,
02:54at the level of 7,000.
02:56Even though we know before,
02:58in the previous week,
03:00the IASG ranged from 7,000 to 7,300.
03:03In this case, I see more of a panic selling
03:06due to the disappointing labor market data,
03:10where the unemployment rate in July rose to 4.3%.
03:15But I see that the IASG is still quite strong,
03:20still quite strong,
03:21so there is also a reversal in the same Pekan,
03:26where at the end of Pekan,
03:28the IASG was closed at level 7,256.
03:32I see that the release of labor force data,
03:38or the initial jobless claim that improved,
03:41this is also an optimism for market players.
03:45Because we also see that the IASG is expected to start pulling
03:50along with several things,
03:52in addition to global, from domestic too.
03:56If from global,
03:57earlier the data improved the initial jobless claim AS,
04:00then from domestic,
04:02we see that there are emitting steps that are starting to plan
04:06corporate action in the form of interim dividend sharing,
04:09as well as the momentum of Rupiah strengthening,
04:12which became the supporter of the IASG last week.
04:17And if we look at it too,
04:19that last week,
04:21the release of economic growth data,
04:23where Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter
04:27was still able to be above 5%,
04:31or precisely at 5.05% year-on-year.
04:36So I see that the IASG on this Pekan
04:41will move relatively more stable,
04:44because the market experienced stability
04:46after the fluctuation that happened last week,
04:49with a focus on the main inflation data
04:52that will be released this week.
04:55I see that technically too,
04:58for this week,
04:59the IASG managed to break out in the MA20,
05:03along with the Golden Cross in the Stochastic RSI,
05:06and we also see a negative slope in the MACD,
05:11so the IASG is expected to move
05:14for this week in the range of 7,200 to 7,300,
05:20with the support level at 7,201
05:23and the resistance at 7,315.
05:26Okay.
05:27Bariska, even though the IASG is back on track
05:29compared to last week,
05:30last week it was 0.7% weaker,
05:33and year-to-date it was 0.22%.
05:36How much resistance does the IASG need to break through
05:40so that the trend is back to positive?
05:42Even though you said earlier
05:44that the movement on this Pekan
05:46will be positive and reach the 7,300 level.
05:49What do you think, Bariska?
05:52Yes, the IASG's psychological level
05:55is at the 7,200 and 7,150 level.
06:00That's the psychological level of the market players
06:03at the 7,200 level,
06:05and moreover, they have been able to pass the support level
06:09at the 7,150 level.
06:11This will certainly be one thing
06:14that makes the market panic selling.
06:16Meanwhile, if we talk about the resistance level,
06:19the strong resistance of the IASG
06:21has been able to break through the previous resistance level
06:26at the 7,200 level,
06:27and the next resistance level is at the 7,315 level.
06:31At the 7,315 level,
06:33the IASG will still have a chance to reach the 7,500 level.
06:37Okay.
06:38Talking about sentiment from outside,
06:41actually, Bariska,
06:42if we look at the PPI data in the United States,
06:46if there is a chance for the Fed to lower the flower rate in September,
06:51will it be bigger?
06:53And how will this push for positive sentiment
06:59globally and also have an impact on regional and domestic markets?
07:03Yes, of course.
07:05Right now, the market is waiting for the release of data
07:09on the producer price index,
07:11or what we call the PPI in the United States
07:14on Tuesday.
07:16This is also a reference to measure the inflation
07:19that occurs at the producer level,
07:21so that the data is indeed one thing that the market is paying attention to.
07:26The PPI decrease
07:28has the potential to increase the flower rate gap
07:32in September 2024.
07:35But we also need to be vigilant
07:39because I see that
07:41the Fed has the potential to increase the flower rate gap.
07:47But this could happen not only in September,
07:50it could also happen at the end of the year.
07:52The Governor of the Bank of Indonesia
07:55has previously said the same thing.
07:58Because,
07:59why will this decrease in the flower rate
08:02have an impact on the market?
08:04This decrease in the flower rate
08:07will be a reference from the Bank of Indonesia
08:10to do the flower rate reduction.
08:13And the Bank of Indonesia is also expected
08:16to do the flower rate reduction this year.
08:19So, this is in line,
08:20but it must be preceded by the flower rate reduction of the Fed.
08:24Okay.
08:25Let's talk about the latest data from the U.S. Stock Exchange.
08:27Indeed, this was closed at the end of last week
08:31in the green zone for a while.
08:33This may also be something that can affect the ISG
08:38at the beginning of this week.
08:40Yes.
08:41That's right, Mr. Fikir.
08:43The increase that occurred in the Wall Street Stock Exchange,
08:46we can see that this is no different
08:49from the data released by the U.S. economy
08:55which is also quite good,
08:57where the weekly unemployment rate
08:59was recorded to be only 233,000.
09:03This is lower than expected at 240,000.
09:07So, this is a fresh wind for the global financial market
09:12while reducing concerns about the recession
09:15after the panic selling earlier this week.
09:19So, I see that there is a potential
09:22for the IHSG to tend to be more stable this week.
09:26Okay.
09:27Not only the IHSG,
09:28which is quite strong,
09:30the Rupiah is also strong,
09:31below the level of 16,000.
09:36What do you see, Mariska?
09:38Yes, I see that the Rupiah is currently below the level of 16,000
09:45or maybe now it's around 15,900.
09:49This is actually the strongest position
09:51since April 5, 2024,
09:53or maybe the last four months.
09:56If we look at it,
09:57this strength also occurred
09:59after the release of the deficit reserve in July
10:03which increased significantly
10:06and this also gave optimism to the market players.
10:10So, I see that the increase in the deficit reserve
10:15is actually mainly influenced
10:18by the rise of the global government
10:21as well as the increase in taxes and services.
10:24This makes the Rupiah trend this week
10:28still strong and in the strength trend.
10:32If this continues,
10:34the closest Rupiah support level
10:37is at 15,825 per USD
10:42while the resistance level is still at 16,000.
10:47So, I see that the Rupiah will still have a potential for strengthening.
10:55Okay.
10:56And this is also a useful moment.
10:58Especially if we talk about the context
11:00in the IHSG
11:03which is quite significant.
11:05It seems that the sentiment of strengthening the Rupiah exchange rate can be used.
11:08But back to the IHSG,
11:10last week the IHSG's strength was of course supported
11:13by the significant strengthening of Aman Minerals.
11:16Ms. Rizka, even though it hasn't closed the gap
11:18between the previous day's weakness and your analysis,
11:20and also maybe a recommendation about Aman,
11:23what is it like, Ms. Rizka?
11:25Yes, I see that
11:27Aman Minerals is moving below MA50
11:30and formed a haram bullish at the end of the week.
11:34For Aman, there is still a chance to continue strengthening
11:37by testing the resistance level at level 11,500.
11:41If we look at the technical side,
11:44Stochastic Golden Cross
11:46and the RSI is bullish.
11:49For Aman, we can do a buy at level 11,000 to 11,100.
11:55With the support level at 10,700
11:58and the resistance level at 11,500.
12:01Okay, if we talk about other Aman Minerals-based stocks,
12:04there are TINS, INKO, MDK, ANTAM, MBMA.
12:07These are also strengthening.
12:09In your opinion, what is the sentiment?
12:11And what is your recommendation for other Aman Minerals-based stocks?
12:18Yes, I see for other Aman Minerals-based stocks,
12:24TINS, INKO, MDK, ANTAM
12:28still have the potential to continue strengthening.
12:32Because if we look at it,
12:35from the price of the commodity itself,
12:38the price of oil is stable.
12:40Then we also see from the price of gold
12:44has recorded a sharp increase in the previous week.
12:50And I see that there is still a potential for further strengthening
12:55for the price of the commodity.
12:57So there is still a potential to buy in the short term.
13:02Okay, that means for the previous stocks,
13:04just recommend it for the short term, right?
13:06Yes.
13:07It can be used well.
13:08Speaking of other stocks,
13:09TPIO has also re-entered the intraday level.
13:11In your opinion, where will TPIO head to, Ms. Rizka?
13:16Yes, speaking of TPIO,
13:18it is actually in an uptrend
13:21with the formation of Candel Merubozu.
13:23Stochastic and RSI are bullish.
13:26So there is still a chance for strengthening
13:28to test the resistance level at 10,650.
13:32Okay.
13:33What is interesting is related to the strengthening
13:35of property-based stocks,
13:37CTRA, which is 2.31%.
13:39Actually, for a while,
13:42this has become a sentiment that has been waiting for quite a long time
13:45by investors who want to favor the property sector.
13:48Certainly, yesterday there were also many negative sentiments
13:53about the property sector.
13:57CTRA specifically or maybe the property sector in general?
14:01What do you think?
14:02Is it interesting in this trend?
14:04Yes, the property sector is still interesting for us to pay attention to.
14:11Because we see that there is a potential
14:15for the decline of the debt flower population.
14:17This will also have an impact on the opportunity
14:20for the depletion of the Indonesian Bank flower population.
14:22And we also see that
14:26from the marketing revenue or marketing sales side
14:31from the property sector,
14:33this is also generally experiencing an increase.
14:36It means that the sale of units in the property sector
14:40is still quite good.
14:42And if we look at the government,
14:44it still fully supports the property sector.
14:48Although we see that the flower population is at a relatively high level,
14:536.25%,
14:55but the government still provides
14:59some supporting policies.
15:02For example, we see from the LTV side
15:06up to 100%,
15:07where the community or consumers can buy a house
15:11with 0% interest rate.
15:12But this is adjusted again with each of the banking policies.
15:16Then the second, we see from the PPNDTP also extended.
15:21This is worth up to 2 billion,
15:23which is exempted from taxes.
15:25These are the things that support the property sector itself.
15:31And I see that
15:33from the domestic inflation condition,
15:36which is still quite under control,
15:38where at the moment our inflation is still within the target of the Indonesian Bank,
15:422.5% plus or minus 1.
15:46So this is also estimated to still continue to maintain the exchange rate of Rupiah,
15:54which was below Rp. 16,000.
15:56We also see from the side of the inflation,
15:58the current account balance deficit is also minimal.
16:01So the context of a strong fundamental economy
16:06will either directly or indirectly support the property sector.
16:12Okay, the property sector, especially those in the upper segment,
16:14are also quite sensitive to the fluctuation
16:17in the value of European currency from the United States itself.
16:20Because there are still a lot of building materials that need to be imported.
16:25Okay, Ms. Rizka, later we will discuss all of your choices
16:29this week.
16:31We will continue, Ms. Rizka, and also you and we will be back soon.
16:35Thank you for staying with us.
16:37Before I continue the discussion with Ms. Rizka,
16:39we will first look at the recommended options.
16:42Today, the options are
16:44BBRI with a buy recommendation,
16:46support at Rp. 4,600
16:48and resistance at Rp. 4,800.
16:51Then there are also the following stocks that are recommended.
16:54There are brands with a buy on weakness recommendation,
16:56with support at Rp. 8,150
16:59and resistance at Rp. 8,500.
17:03There is also a property that is recommended by Ms. Rizka this morning.
17:06There is BSDE with a buy recommendation,
17:09with support at Rp. 1,050
17:11and resistance at Rp. 1,350.
17:14Then we also have INDI with a buy on weakness recommendation,
17:17with support at Rp. 1,370
17:19and resistance at Rp. 1,450.
17:27Okay, let's continue the discussion with Ms. Rizka.
17:31Ms. Rizka, we will discuss the options this morning from you.
17:35Ms. Rizka, what is the complete analysis of BBRI?
17:39Yes, I see that BBRI is currently moving above MA50.
17:44Hestib stock and RSI are also moving bullishly
17:47so that BBRI has the potential to test resistance at level Rp. 4,730.
17:54For the support level at Rp. 4,600
17:57with the resistance level at Rp. 4,730
18:03and the second resistance level will be at Rp. 4,800.
18:08We can apply a buy for this BBRI for the long term
18:13by applying a stop loss at Rp. 4,570.
18:18Okay, Rp. 4,670 is the last level for BBRI.
18:22BBRI is still in the support and resistance range that you recommended, right?
18:29Yes.
18:30Okay, is BBRI a buy for the short term or long term?
18:35We can buy this BBRI for the long term.
18:39Okay, if we look at the price movement,
18:42for one week, it has increased by 3.09%
18:45but after one month, it still decreased by 3.11%.
18:49Okay, we will leave the BBRI from the banking sector that you recommended this morning.
18:54Bariska, let's move to the brand.
18:56The recommendation is Buy on Weakness with support at Rp. 8,150.
19:00What is your analysis, Bariska?
19:02Yes, for the brand itself,
19:05I see that the previous trading has been strengthened.
19:10Although if we look at the trend,
19:13this brand is in the BBRI trend
19:15but the price is starting to rise from the demand zone
19:17and there is a potential rebound to test the next resistance level at Rp. 8,500.
19:23This is if we look at the bullish stochastic and RSI.
19:27But we also need to be cautious
19:30if there is a decrease below the level of Rp. 8,150.
19:35So I recommend the brand Buy on Weakness.
19:39We will buy at the range of Rp. 8,225 to Rp. 8,300.
19:47Okay, Rp. 8,350.
19:49This is the last level for the brand itself.
19:51Let's wait for the support level that you recommended.
19:55Or at the range of Buy that has been mentioned.
19:58Is the term of investment in the middle?
20:02For the brand, I tend to look from the short term to the middle.
20:11We need to pay more attention to the technical and financial side.
20:18Okay.
20:19Historically, from the fundamentals for the brand itself,
20:22for those who are quite obsessed with the brand
20:26and want to invest in the long term,
20:31is the fundamental level convincing enough, Mariska?
20:34Yes, speaking of fundamentals, the brand has good fundamentals.
20:39Moreover, it is supported by an emitter that moves in renewable energy.
20:46This is still quite rare.
20:49We are also currently supporting clean energy.
20:54Or we see from the SDGs,
20:57this brand is truly one of the emitters
21:03that is also liked by the market,
21:08both domestically and globally.
21:11If I look at it, the price of this brand is also relatively high
21:18from the P&E side.
21:21We just need to be more careful when buying a brand.
21:24I am worried that we will be like in the trade of May and June,
21:30we experienced a significant decrease from the level of Rp11,250
21:37to around Rp5,000.
21:41So, we need to be more careful when buying this brand.
21:47Okay.
21:48From the brand, we move to the last level of BSDE at Rp1,110.
21:52The level of support that you see at Rp1,050
21:56means that it is quite close to the level of support that you recommend for BSDE.
22:03The resistance at Rp1,350.
22:05What is the analysis like, Ms. Ariska, for BSDE?
22:08Yes, BSDE itself,
22:10the strengthening has been happening for the past four consecutive days.
22:14If we look at the property sector,
22:17it is also one of the sectors that I recommend until the end of this year.
22:22For BSDE, the price moves above Rp1,050
22:25in the pull-up trend.
22:26Stochastic has the potential to form a golden cross
22:30with a bullish RSI and a positive MSCD histogram.
22:33BSDE is in the resistance area
22:36and will move to the next resistance at Rp1,350
22:42so that we can currently buy BSDE at Rp1,100
22:48up to Rp1,115 at the price of the last price yesterday.
22:53Okay.
22:55The resistance level is at Rp1,350
22:58and the support level is at Rp1,050.
23:00Okay, so far, at the time of the opening of C1,
23:02BSDE continues to strengthen
23:04with a weekly strengthening of 8.78%
23:08and a monthly strengthening of 8.25%
23:10which means that the price is still okay
23:12in terms of valuation compared to other property sectors.
23:15What is BSDE like?
23:17Yes, talking about BSDE and other property sectors,
23:22actually, if we look at the entire sector,
23:25BSDE is not the only one that is a source of income.
23:34If we look at the market cap,
23:36BSDE is one of the property sectors
23:39that has a large market cap.
23:41The market cap is Rp23.5 trillion.
23:44If we make the investors
23:49who tend to look at the market cap, liquidity,
23:55and the relative price,
24:00it doesn't need to be quantitative.
24:02So I recommend BSDE for today.
24:07Okay, from BSDE, we go to Indica Energy.
24:10What is it like, Mariska?
24:12For now, it is moving in an uptrend pattern
24:17and is expected to reach Rp50 trillion.
24:19Looking at the bullish and RSI statistics,
24:22it is strong with a positive histogram.
24:25Indica Energy has the potential to reach Rp1,450 trillion.
24:29To buy, we can buy,
24:33I recommend buy on weakness
24:35because if we look at it,
24:37last week it was 9.54%.
24:42Buy on weakness is around Rp1,390 trillion to Rp1,410 trillion.
24:46The closest resistance is Rp1,450 trillion
24:50with a support level of Rp1,370 trillion.
24:53Okay, let's go to the last level, Rp1,430 trillion.
24:56I recommend Indica Energy to reach Rp1,370 trillion
24:59and Rp1,450 trillion.
25:01The recommendation is buy on weakness.
25:03Those are the recommendations
25:05or the choices from Mariska Afriyani.
25:08There are BBRI, Brand, BSDE,
25:11and Indica Energy with their own recommendations.
25:13Buy, buy on weakness, buy, and buy on weakness.
25:16Okay, let's stop for a moment.
25:18Mariska, we will discuss the market opening data this morning.
25:22We will be back soon.
25:24Thank you for joining us.
25:26Before I continue the discussion with Mariska Afriyani,
25:28the Capital Trustor,
25:29we will take a look at the opening data of IHSG
25:32this morning from 9.07 am in West Indonesia.
25:37So far, IHSG is moving weakly, 0.07%,
25:39at level 7,251,887.
25:43And so far, it is among the top generations.
25:46Among them are Nest, Harum, Film, Isat,
25:49Tins, Inco, Kepik, DOH, ITMG, and PTPP.
25:54The top losers so far are AMMN, Heli, Goto,
25:58and Buka, BP, Suli, MAPI, MKAP, SMEL.
26:04The data is still moving.
26:07Mariska, so far it is moving weakly.
26:11What is your analysis for IHSG?
26:13At the moment, the weakness is still in a normal context.
26:19Because the weakness is still only 12 points,
26:24which is around 0.13%.
26:27So, I see that the support level is at 7,201,
26:33and the resistance level is at 7,315.
26:37But for today's movement,
26:40I am not too worried about the weakness.
26:44So, the investors can still buy
26:47from the stocks that have good fundamentals.
26:50Okay.
26:52Let's move on to the next discussion,
26:55which is still related to the property stocks
26:58that are also supported by construction stocks,
27:00such as WIKA, PTPP, and others,
27:03each of which is 4%, 7%, and 6%.
27:06What do you see as the possibility for this group of stocks?
27:09Or maybe the chance for this week, Mariska?
27:12Yes, the chance for the property stocks,
27:15the construction stocks are also included in the property,
27:19if we look at the stock market.
27:21There is still a potential for strengthening,
27:23but the strengthening is not as aggressive as the previous week.
27:27So, we need to be careful too,
27:30because there is a potential for profit taking this week.
27:33For the stocks,
27:36whether it's real estate property
27:39or construction property,
27:42I prefer to recommend buy on weakness,
27:48while still paying attention to the technical points.
27:53I'm worried that it's already in the buy zone,
27:57so there will be profit taking.
27:59Okay.
28:00A little bit about the BKEPS stock,
28:02for self-financing,
28:03last week you recommended BBRI.
28:07How about BNI and BCA?
28:13For BNI,
28:15I see there is still a potential for strengthening,
28:18because it is currently in an uptrend.
28:22For BNI, there is still a potential for strengthening,
28:27testing the resistance level at 5,250.
28:32So, for BNI,
28:34we can also do a gradual buy accumulation.
28:37BCA was pressured yesterday,
28:39can it be used to enter a cheaper price?
28:41Yes, of course.
28:43BNI and BCA are still interesting for us to look at.
28:47For BCA today,
28:49we experienced a decrease of 50 points.
28:54Now, at 10,100,
28:57we can still make a purchase at 10,000-10,100.
29:01Okay.
29:02Bariska,
29:03various analysis that you have conveyed,
29:05whether it is related to the global, regional,
29:08and also domestic market,
29:09and this time,
29:11hopefully it can be a reference for market players
29:13to invest today.
29:15Bariska, good luck for you.
29:16Thank you, see you.
29:18Yes, thank you.