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00:00Again, there are just seven teams nationally that have a minus money price favored to reach
00:08the college football playoff in its first year of 12 in 2024.
00:12And Notre Dame is one of those seven teams, Joe, at minus 170.
00:17The win total for the Fighting Irish, 10 and a half, and the under has the juice at minus
00:21170, an indication that if Notre Dame can at least get to 10 wins, the Fighting Irish
00:27will be in the college football playoff.
00:30Is the path that crystal clear for Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame?
00:33I think it is.
00:34And it starts with the quarterback position, Riley Leonard taking over for Sam Hartman.
00:38We talked about Riley Leonard being a dual threat quarterback.
00:42He stepped up in Duke, was hurt towards the end of the regular season, but he is an added
00:47dimension in regards to the offense for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
00:50Notre Dame averaged well over 170 rushing yards per game.
00:54Roderick Estime moves on to the NFL, but you have four starters coming back on the
00:58offensive line, and we saw them win 10 ballgames last year, including the ballgame.
01:04So again, there is the potential.
01:06Starts week one against Texas A&M.
01:08Schedule's a little bit light, Ben, so I don't see any way for Notre Dame is not a 10-win
01:14football team.
01:1511 wins, I think, is the top.
01:16They're going to have maybe one loss throughout the regular season, but everything is there
01:20for the taking for Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame.
01:23And here is the debate around the Irish in the 12-team format of the college football
01:28playoff.
01:29Because Notre Dame is an independent FBS football program and does not belong to a conference,
01:35they will never earn an automatic berth to the college football playoff.
01:39The top four, the four highest-ranked conference champs, all earn an opening round buy.
01:44Notre Dame will never have the opportunity, at least in this format by these rules, to
01:50earn an opening round buy in the CFP.
01:53What Notre Dame can do is host a college football playoff game on campus under the
01:58watchful eye of touchdown Jesus in South Bend as one of the top five to eight seeds in the
02:03college football playoff.
02:05But that's the distinction.
02:07In my estimation, Joe, I think this makes things easier for Notre Dame.
02:12You might be saying, well, they'll never get the automatic berth and they'll never get
02:15to get the buy in the opening round to help their chances, you would think, of winning
02:19a national title.
02:21But Notre Dame had all these same questions in a four-team format.
02:24They had to be nearly perfect, a razor-thin edge each and every season.
02:29Now there's seven spots for Notre Dame to occupy and the odds makers agree.
02:33Again, why it is minus 170.
02:35That's the expectation this season in South Bend.
02:37It is and they want the eyes on the product.
02:39If it comes down to a 10-2 Notre Dame team and let's just say an 11-1 Memphis team or
02:44Liberty that's not a conference champion, I think the committee would take Notre Dame
02:48in a heartbeat over both of those teams.
02:50So that's where you get the added benefit for Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman.
02:55They have the cachet.
02:56They have the tradition and pageantry that other teams don't have, right?
03:01Team and the fan bases want to see Notre Dame in terms of the college football playoff.
03:06So that's where you get the value in terms of the minus 170 to make it this year again.
03:11But they have to step up.
03:12They thought Sam Hartman was the answer last year.
03:15They specifically got Sam Hartman to win that game against Ryan Day in Ohio State.
03:19They had him for 58 minutes and 59 minutes and 30 seconds.
03:24Couldn't put him away last year.
03:25In the first two years under Marcus Freeman, the Irish have won nine and ten games by the
03:30end of the season, but both of those years featured a bowl victory.
03:33They have not gone over the 10.5 win total, which is a regular season win total in either
03:38of his two years at the command in South Bend.
03:42Oftentimes, because of their independent status, Notre Dame plays a very difficult schedule.
03:47They have a scheduling alliance with the ACC.
03:50They play five ACC teams each and every year.
03:54Sometimes that can be Clemson or Florida State or Miami.
03:56Insert who you would like into that conversation.
04:00And then, of course, their non-conference, and everything is a non-conference, but those
04:04other teams outside of the ACC are often quite grueling.
04:08USC in years past, Michigan, so on and so forth.
04:13This year you look at the schedule for the Irish.
04:16It is not overly difficult in comparison.
04:19They do have Florida State, but that game is at home in South Bend.
04:23They open up the year on the road in College Station, where Riley Leonard, the former Duke
04:28quarterback, will play his former head coach, the former Duke head coach, who is now the
04:32head man in College Station, in Mike Elko.
04:35And that game, Joe, I think is even more fascinating in this 12-team era of the college football
04:40playoff, because it is right now a virtual pick-em.
04:43Minus 111 in favor of A&M, minus 108.
04:47Three cents of distinction on the money line.
04:49Where in years past, the loser of the game slimmed to none in terms of their margin of
04:54error to get to the college football playoff.
04:56This year it is just a celebration of a great non-conference battle that will show us what
05:00Notre Dame is capable of this year.
05:02It will.
05:03And think about the matchup.
05:04You have Mike Elko, a defensive mastermind, that took down Cade Klubnick with six months
05:08of preparation, and he knows Riley Leonard very well.
05:12So if he's going to devise a game plan to really limit Riley Leonard in week number
05:17one, he has six months to do it.
05:19I think that's why you're seeing the one-pick-em type of spread play out right now in terms
05:24of the offseason.
05:25But I still give the edge to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
05:28They legitimately have the quarterback advantage in almost every ballgame, and that includes
05:32Miller Moss and USC and DJU and Florida State.
05:35They play both Navy and Army on the schedule.
05:38There is no reason for this team not to win ten football games.
05:42Marcus Freeman, ten wins last year, but you lose to Louisville on primetime.
05:46You get blown out.
05:47Right?
05:48You struggle with Duke.
05:49They had to pull that ballgame out in the last minute in terms of the regulation.
05:53You cannot have lapses like that.
05:55So, again, it's the third year.
05:58He needs to step up.
05:59Pressure's on Notre Dame.
06:00I don't see any reason why they don't get over the ten and a half.
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