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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Dana Kennedy,
00:07AARP Arizona State Director. Dana, thank you so much for joining me.
00:12Thanks for having me, Brittany. I really appreciate it.
00:14The AARP released a new presidential poll with some really interesting
00:18results coming out of Arizona. When it comes to the general election,
00:23Donald Trump is beating President Biden 45 to 37 percent. And then once you look at voters
00:29age 50 and above, Trump's lead widens by 10 points. So what are some of your takeaways?
00:35Well, we're seeing a good deal of swing voting in Arizona. And, you know, this has always been
00:39the case. And that just means that voters will vote for one party in one race and another party
00:45in another race. And among voters 50 plus, Trump is leading President Biden by 10 points, 49 to 39.
00:54And in the U.S. Senate race, for those listeners who may be interested in that as well,
01:00Carrie Lake leads Gallego by one point, 48 to 47, with 50 and older. But there is a large
01:08gender gap for voters 50 plus. So Biden and Trump are tied among women 50 plus,
01:15while Representative Gallego leads among women by 12 points and among men 50 points. So Trump
01:22leads Biden by 22 points, while Lake leads Gallego by 15 points. So let's talk about that
01:30gender gap there, because when you look at just women, Biden and Trump are essentially tied.
01:35Why is that? You know, I think that women voters we know are going to be the deciders. And I think
01:43that, you know, Social Security and inflation and rising prices are really important to those women
01:49voters. And we know that, you know, they're just a block of voters that, you know, they do split
01:56their ticket and they're very, you know, thoughtful voters. Another voter, another group of voters,
02:02rather, that the AARP is going, says is going to be essential in this election are voters over 50.
02:09Why is that? So older voters are our nation's most powerful voters, and they'll be the deciders in
02:17the 2024 elections. And this voting block has accounted for 55 percent of all Arizona voters
02:24in the 2020 elections and 64 percent of the state voters in the 2022 midterms. And 86 percent of
02:33voters 50 plus say they're extremely motivated to vote in this election, compared to 66 percent
02:40of voters 18 by 49 who say the same. So we know that this block of voters, they're just ready to
02:46vote and we know that they're going to go to the polls. You underscored the importance of this
02:52voting block in the AARP's press release. I want to read your quote and then dive a little deeper
02:57into it. You said this quote, Arizona voters over age 50 are the biggest voting block that could
03:03tip the scale for any candidate in this election. So what are those issues that that really important
03:09voting block care about? So we know that, you know, that economics is really important, as well
03:16as Social Security. And we also know that caregiving is really important to these block of
03:21voters as well. So, you know, one in four are family caregivers right now of those 50 and older,
03:29and especially women. And so they really want to understand where the candidates stand on issues
03:37and making sure that they're going to provide home and community based services to help keep
03:41their loved ones at home and safe in the community. And based on this poll, is there a
03:46sense from voters of who they believe are better, is the candidate that's better equipped to handle
03:51these issues? You know, they're right now, they want to know where the candidates stand on the
03:56issues. So they do lean, you know, to making sure that they're going to vote in the election.
04:03But personal economic issues loom larger when we tally up, tally up the responses for inflation,
04:10economy and jobs and Social Security. And as a group, these issues picked up first and second
04:17by 54% of Arizona voters 50 plus, and the personal economic issues are very high among the GOP voters
04:2550 plus, and a top among independent voters 50 plus. And the top tier among Democrats,
04:33just behind our threats to the democracy. So Trump is leading Biden by two to one,
04:39when voters are prioritizing economic issues. The economy continues to be a top issue for
04:46voters across the country, not just in Arizona. But the economy by the numbers is doing better
04:51than it has been in the previous years. In May, the NASDAQ closed at an all time high,
04:57the S&P 500 hit a record high as well. The CPI report for May showed inflation slightly cooling
05:04down. So based on these numbers, do you think that sentiment will eventually catch up between
05:09now and election day? Or are people pretty much set in their way when it comes to how they're
05:14voting because of the economy? You know, it's really interesting, because we know that people
05:20are going to vote based on their pocketbook. But they also want to make sure that they're safe at
05:25the same time. So the candidates that speak to them on these issues is really important. So we
05:31know that there's a base of Democrats that are just going to vote Democrats. And then there's
05:37a base of Republicans that are just going to vote for Republicans. But then in Arizona, you know,
05:43what's interesting is a third of the voters, 33% are independents. And that's the block of voters
05:50that these candidates really need to speak to. And if they really want to, you know, win over
05:55this block of voters, they need to really be talking about Social Security and economy. And
06:00also family caregiving is a really important issue to them as well. Arizona is such an interesting
06:06state because it's home to the late, possibly most famous modern maverick, Senator John McCain.
06:14I mean, you're saying this huge constituency are independents. It is known to be purple.
06:19You're saying that it's not just a down ballot vote. So why do you think that is?
06:25You know, I love Arizona voters, because you can never count on them. And they're going to keep
06:31you on the toes. And you know, it's kind of like when I hear national polls, I'm like,
06:35that doesn't matter. It's going to come down to the electoral college. And if you look at the
06:41state by state polls right now, it seems that it might come down to Arizona. And Arizona voters
06:48are prickly, you know, prickly, and they really want voters to speak to them. And there's a lot
06:54going on in Arizona that, you know, the rest of the country may not know about. But that one third
07:00of independent voters, they're going to show up in November. The question is, are they going to
07:05show up in our primary at the end of the month in July? And this block of voters, they don't really
07:12know that they can actually vote in a primary. So both parties really have to, you know, spend a lot
07:17of time talking to those independent voters when they're trying to focus on the primary right now.
07:23We're also looking at the general election, but you have to get through the primary.
07:27And so we know in the presidential, you know, we pretty much have that, you know, sewn up.
07:31But what's interesting is the Republican, you know, Senate race. So we'll see what happens to
07:37that in the primary. Of course, you know, Carrie Lake is the one that has the most name recognition.
07:43And then she'll probably most likely go on into November. But people forget that we actually do
07:48have a primary here at the end of July. And so this block of voters is interesting.
07:54And the older voters are really interesting, too, that the election could really come down
07:59to them coming out and voting. And Dr. Joe Biden, first lady, was in Arizona in Phoenix this weekend
08:06at a Seniors for Biden event. So is there an indication that the campaign realizes how serious
08:12this block of voters is to sway them to vote their way?
08:16You know, I feel like in Arizona, we might be treated like we're Iowa, you know, for a caucus.
08:21And we had Trump here already. We've had Biden here a few times. You mentioned just Dr. Biden,
08:27the first lady, was here. And so we are going to start seeing a lot of candidates come here,
08:32as well as the surrogate candidates. So I think most voters are going to get to see some face
08:37to face time. But if you are a candidate and you're coming right now, just know it might likely
08:42be over 110 degrees. So, you know, I know that Trump had, you know, a forum and a bunch of
08:49people actually passed out waiting to get inside because of the extreme heat. So it's really
08:55important that, you know, we also take safe, you know, heat safety. So it's really hot here and
09:02it's going to be hot for at least two or three more months before it starts to cool down. But
09:07last year we had 55 days of 110 degree weather. So that's also something to consider.
09:16A, that's really hot. B, I was in June or I was in Arizona in June a few years ago
09:21covering a political town hall. And I mean, I can attest to just how hot that was.
09:26I'm from the Northeast, so I wasn't prepared for that heat. But it will cool down by November,
09:32five months away from now come election day. So what are you looking out for when it comes to
09:37Arizona, when it comes to the presidential election between now and then? You know,
09:41I think that a lot of candidates will be coming here and that most candidates, you know, will
09:46have different kind of forums. So voters will probably get to come and see those candidates
09:52face to face. But I think that it's really important that these candidates do speak to
09:56the senior voters. And we know, you know, we hear about immigration all the time, but that's not the
10:00only issue that's important here. So the economy is also important. The democracy is also important.
10:06We also have many things on our ballot as well. Dana Kennedy, thank you so much for your time.
10:11You're welcome back anytime. Thanks, Brittany. I really enjoyed the interview. Thanks for having me.