This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. We go on a journey through space and time to try and locate sunny and warm weather and look at the prospects for things warming up across the UK in the coming weeks. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to your Met Office Deep Dive. My name's Alex Deakin. I'm a
00:05weather presenter here at the Met Office but today I'm channeling my inner Olaf
00:10as I go in search of summer. Join me for the next 20 to 25 minutes as we travel
00:17through space and time to try and locate some warm and sunny weather because it's
00:22definitely been in short supply across the UK. If you enjoy this do hit the like
00:27button and if you've got any comments do please put them in as well because we
00:33do love reading them. Comments, questions, queries, suggestions of how we can do
00:38things differently or what else you'd like to see in the Met Office Deep Dive
00:42because it's here for you. Okay as always plenty to talk about and we are going in
00:48search of summer but no sign of that certainly recently across the UK. This is
00:53the satellite image for the past few days and you can tell just from this
00:57just from the way the clouds are moving that the air is coming down from the
01:00north. Clumps of cloud drifting south from Iceland and when the air is coming
01:05down from the north
01:06well it's a no surprise that there's a bit of a chill in the air. You've
01:10probably noticed that over the past couple of days it has been very fresh
01:15feeling despite some decent spells of sunshine. Why is that? Well let's take a
01:20look at the bigger picture. Here's what's going on, the pressure pattern at the
01:24surface and what's going on high in the atmosphere with the jet stream. The jet
01:28stream is driving to the south. We've got this little trough, this little dip in the
01:33jet stream and we're in that. The winds at the surface therefore are also coming
01:38down from the north and it's these northerly winds. Look at that, a real
01:42doozy of a northerly all the way up to the Arctic. That's where our air is
01:46originating from. It does mean there's pretty good visibility out there when the
01:49sun's out but it also means yes despite the reasonably powerful June sunshine it
01:55does feel chilly and high pressure is nearby. That is going to topple in and
02:00bring many places a fine day tomorrow. In fact if we just fast forward to tomorrow
02:03we'll see that not only is the high pressure moved in a little bit but as it
02:09does so the winds at least across the UK are going to be a little bit lighter. So
02:14tomorrow is going to be a fine day for most places. The air is still incoming
02:18from the north but with lighter winds maybe a bit more sunshine it shouldn't
02:22feel too bad tomorrow. So yes we've got cold air in place from those northerly
02:27winds but we are in for a bit of a change later on in the week. But certainly for
02:31the next couple of days staying on the cool side let's take a look at the
02:34numbers we're talking about. Temperatures today generally struggling in the mid
02:39high teens in one or two places across the south. These numbers generally three
02:43or four degrees below the average but tomorrow well we're still only in the
02:48teens but we are for most places a couple of degrees higher tomorrow and
02:52with lighter winds and a bit more sunshine well it might just feel a bit
02:55more like June. Certainly by the afternoon first thing tomorrow morning
02:58it's going to be on the cold side because the mornings are still
03:02particularly chilly. Overnight temperatures towns and cities single
03:06digits but in rural spots quite a bit below and we could be well below
03:10particularly as we go through into Wednesday morning. These are the
03:15temperatures single digits Northern Ireland parts of Wales Scotland that
03:19hint of blue on the chart suggesting rural spots may not be far off freezing
03:23actually so a bit of a chill in the air certainly and even on Thursday morning
03:27again it gets a bit milder in the west we'll see why that is in a moment but
03:30look at these temperatures again over central and eastern parts seven eight
03:34degrees that's in urban areas towns and cities but in rural spots it may not be
03:38too far off freezing two or three degrees and certainly a ground frost is
03:42possible over the next coming night. Is that unusual? Well actually it's not
03:47exceptional far from it this map is showing the number of ground frosts that
03:54we see across the UK in June compared to average anything white is one or fewer
04:01anything blue is between one and five so you can see actually of course Scotland's
04:06good part of Northern Ireland and a good part of Wales actually most Dunes you
04:10see at least one or two ground frosts a good part of England though in that
04:15white zone where ground frosts are pretty rare so yeah we do see them in
04:20June but they're they're not a common occurrence and our stats guys have been
04:24looking at some of the figures so far this June we've had a hundred and thirty
04:28recorded ground frosts in June compare that to a hundred and forty three for
04:33the whole of June 2023 June 2015 however we did have 600 in 2015 and that
04:40was also particularly chilly start to June more on the June stats in a moment
04:46but yeah first let's take a look back at those temperatures over the next few
04:50days because we are going to see a bit of a change today's temperatures
04:54tomorrow's temperatures just ticking up by the time we get to Friday Saturday
04:59again more widely up to 16 17 degrees let's compare those numbers with average
05:03because we are as you might imagine well below average at the moment as I said
05:08three four five degrees this darker shade of blue is between three and six
05:13degrees below average most of the UK below average by about three degrees or
05:18more and that's today's figure so quite a bit colder than average by tomorrow
05:23not quite as blue still it's far from average or above but it is just starting
05:30to creep up by the time we get to Friday and Saturday again those temperatures
05:35more widely closer to average so this week it is getting warmer it just isn't
05:41getting warm we're going from well below average to back somewhere closer to
05:45average but they'll still be a bit of a chill in the air but it's going to be a
05:48different feel because we'll see our winds swinging in from a different
05:52direction let's take a look at a few more stats talked about June so far and
06:00how how many frosts we've seen or ground frosts we've seen ground frost is where
06:05we take the temperature on on the floor by the way on the ground so when
06:09temperatures there actually dip below freezing not the air temperature that's
06:12measured in a Stevenson screen a bit above the ground but we have
06:16thermometers on the ground as well because that often is colder to get this
06:21time of year and of course that's important for gardeners if you get a
06:23frost on the ground whereas the air temperature can be a few degrees higher
06:27whereas that temperature on the ground because it radiates that much more is
06:30that much lower these are the mean temperatures for June so far and well
06:35you may or may not be surprised to see that we are below average ticking along
06:40here below average quite a bit below really for the time of year this is only
06:44with the data up to yesterday we will see that those curve may be rising a
06:49little bit as the temperatures over the next few days get back a little closer
06:53to average but this is the cumulative score if you like through June so far
06:58you can see we was a little bit above average through the latter part of last
07:01week but now we are well and truly below average we're also below average on
07:05rainfall and that's been helped by that northerly wind yes we've seen some heavy
07:09showers around but this is the cumulative compared to this black line
07:12which is the average line for June the red line at the top the extreme wettest
07:18June and this is the driest June the blue here and you can see here that we
07:22are below average in terms of rainfall again that is likely to tick up
07:26particularly as we head towards the weekend because we are going to see
07:30something of a change in our weather patterns let's take a look at that I've
07:34already hinted at the change with those temperatures but you can see here and
07:39now the jet stream dipping down like that we have what's called more
07:43meridional weather pattern where the weather is quite static this area of
07:47high-pressure is toppling in but out west look at this a much more angry
07:52looking jet stream and much more kind of typical you might say a zonal jet
07:56stream as it's known because it's going from east to west rather than this
07:59north-south orientation this is an east-west orientation and this jet is
08:04just going to give everything a bit of a push out in the Atlantic at the moment
08:06we've got weather fronts and yes they are on their way in if we just play
08:11through the sequence over the next few days this little trough this little dip
08:16in the jet stream kind of gets pushed away the high-pressure topples in but
08:20it's weakening all the time it's being pushed away by this more active jet
08:24stream funneling in across the Atlantic and yes that means these weather fronts
08:28are going to arrive and that means a spell of wet weather as we go through
08:33Thursday in particular these weather fronts driving in bringing some rain
08:37developing low-pressure systems dipping against we have this little bit of a
08:42trough in here which is generating the low-pressure helping to spin things up
08:45creating low-pressure pushing the weather fronts in and pushing the rain
08:49in with it let's put the rain on that chart let's just zip it back a little
08:52bit because you can see most places dry on Thursday but then the rain comes in
08:57on those weather fronts as that jet stream dips south and then if we just
09:02fast-forward to Friday and then Saturday not a great deal has changed from where
09:09we started we've got the dip but we're still on the cold side of the jet but
09:13instead of high-pressure we have low-pressure sitting right across the
09:17UK and that is going to generate a lot of showers so yes mostly dry on Wednesday
09:23Thursday's the day of change still fine in many eastern areas but then low
09:26pressure comes in expect a lot of showers Friday Saturday Sunday it's
09:30looking very showery indeed from this area of low pressure it is going to turn
09:35a little bit milder let's put those temperature profile because we had the
09:38come back to here this is where we are now with the northerly winds and the
09:43cool air fast forward we've got the orange colors back but as we saw earlier
09:49it just means temperatures are going to be back closer to average it doesn't
09:51mean warm of course it's June and when we're talking showers it means there
09:56will be some sunshine between the showers when the Sun's out in June it
09:59always feels reasonably pleasant and so yes it will feel a bit warmer but it
10:03will not be anything like warm temperatures as we've seen will be just
10:08much closer to average plenty of showers in these low-pressure systems as
10:12well what we'll actually probably have through the course of the weekend in
10:17particular on this fast forward to Sunday we'll generally see let's do
10:24Saturday for it because that shows it quite nicely we're going to have kind of
10:27three zones of weather on Sunday and Saturday and Sunday close to the area of
10:33low pressure notice the isobars are quite spaced apart which means the winds
10:36are going to be light which means where we see the showers is not going to be
10:39much to move them on so be a zone close to the center of the low where there
10:43will be slow-moving heavy showers but equally away from the showers there'll
10:48be some slow-moving sunnier zones as well so in this central zone close to
10:52the center of the low there'll be slow-moving heavy showers then you've got
10:55this other zone where the weather fronts are still around bringing more
10:58persistent rain just a band of slow-moving rain here there's quite a
11:02bit of uncertainty about the position of that front but where you are on that
11:05zone expected just to be dull and damp whereas in the south notice here yes
11:10there will be a lot of showers but there's also the isobars are closer
11:13together so there's going to be a more enough of a breeze so in this southern
11:16zone it'll be a really changeable day on Saturday the showers will come the
11:20showers will go heavy downpour one minute sunny spells the next so three
11:24different distinct types of weather even though it's just one area of low
11:28pressure dominating things in the exact position of the low and those weather
11:31fronts will really determine where those zones start and end so from details
11:35on that if you've got plans this weekend do keep up to date with the forecast
11:39because you could be in any of those three zones really under the more
11:42persistent rain with the weather front that slow-moving showery zone close to
11:46the center of the low or in the south where the showers will just zip through
11:50on a fairly brisk wind so that's how it's looking into the weekend's
11:54shower rate but a change compared to what we're seeing at the moment but as
11:59you can see from that no real sign of any lengthy spells of sunny and warm
12:04weather and I said at the start we are going in search of summer so we're going
12:08to have to do one of two things either change go forward or back in time or
12:12move somewhere else in the world so let's do that because I know where the
12:17Sun is shining and shining strongly at the moment and that is across parts of
12:20southern Europe and particularly the eastern end of the Mediterranean high
12:24pressure dominating here let's put the let's put the jet stream back on
12:29actually and show you the full picture because while we've got this dip in the
12:33jet stream here there's another kind of arm of it pushing northwards here which
12:36is just allowing this high pressure to build across the southeast of Europe and
12:40that means the temperatures are building here as well take the rainfall off for
12:44now it's in this zone where the heat is really building once more it's pretty
12:48hot last week temperatures have dipped off a little bit but over the next 24
12:52hours or so they are going to be building again particularly across the
12:56far eastern end of the Mediterranean so Cyprus Turkey parts of Greece especially
13:00seeing those temperatures really rising and then just notice as we go through
13:05the weekend let's fast forward that a little bit faster start to see the heat
13:08does tend to drift away again from Greece but stays pretty hot in Turkey in
13:13Cyprus into the weekend but even here that heat starts to subside as we go
13:17into Sunday especially let's take a look at what that means for those
13:23temperatures in this part of the world
13:29let's head down there first of all hotter hotter playing a game with my
13:35four-year-old the highest temperatures definitely in this part of the world a
13:41couple of days ago there was a tornado triggered by the thunderstorms in
13:45Hungary and that's where the hot air is meeting the cooler air further north but
13:48hot air in place across Turkey and Greece let's have a look at some of the
13:53numbers that we could see here putting this on the map here so parts of Greece
13:57there up to 40 degrees tomorrow not far off on Thursday we will see that dip in
14:01temperatures increase as we go through Friday and Saturday if we just scroll
14:05down to Turkey now temperatures here also particularly inland rising up into
14:10the high 30s mid 30s and let's just scroll down to Cyprus because I could
14:15find a 40 degrees here earlier in the week and it's just disappeared and lost
14:22it now on the map
14:23where's that gone let's have a look I'm losing the map there we are let's bring
14:26Cyprus in start that again on to here
14:31yeah there we go 38 degrees so they'll peak in Cyprus Friday and then start to
14:36dip off on Saturday but that is definitely where summer is at the moment
14:41in the southeastern corner of Europe that's where the hot air is that's where
14:46the sunshine is compare and contrast take the jet stream off the cooler air
14:51across the north hot air across the south so quite contrast that between the
14:54blues across the UK and the chilly air from the north and that heat building
14:58across southeastern parts of Europe temperature is going to get over 40
15:01degrees in some locations over the next couple of days and where they meet where
15:05the air masses clash that's where we see heavy thundery showers and we'll see
15:10more of those over the next couple of days Tuesday and Wednesday particularly
15:14northern Italy parts of Hungary Romania Ukraine up towards Russia where you see
15:19the hot air meeting the cold air you get a clash you get the rising air and
15:22you get the thunderstorms I mentioned earlier the tornado in Hungary on Monday
15:33and if we look at the satellite picture you can see in here just watch the
15:37thunderstorms blossom on Monday you can actually see the mushroom clouds
15:41developing there there there's one supercell big thunderstorm developing
15:45let's just do that again because that's quite cool you can see them just in here
15:49individual cells is blossoming really rapid explosion if you like of a
15:53thunderstorm just developing and that's what creates the heavy downpours and
15:57that's what created the tornado in Hungary on Sunday or Monday I think it
16:02was Monday Monday evening across there
16:05ok so we found some hot and sunny weather by going to a different part of
16:10the world any sign of that warmth returning to the UK we've seen in the
16:14short term no not really but what about beyond that looking a little further
16:21ahead are there any signs of summer returning to the UK well in the short
16:29the short answer is is not really because if we look a little further
16:34ahead these are the rainfall anomalies so when you compare them to average for
16:40a week starting next Monday so it's a week's worth of rainfall anomalies green
16:46is wetter than average and brown is drier than average and these from the
16:52European model for the whole of next week so from Monday the 17th to Monday
16:57the 24th it takes us across the solstice and you can see that the signal there is
17:02actually is going to be wetter than average for England Wales and parts of
17:05eastern Scotland and around average for much of western Scotland and Northern
17:10Ireland so that isn't signaling a lot of dry and sunny weather and there's an
17:15even stronger signal if you look at the actual temperatures again this is for
17:18the same time so for the whole of next week starting Monday temperatures
17:22compared to the average for June it's across the whole week so you can have a
17:26warm day and then a cool day and averages out but but these this is
17:30showing quite a decent signal that generally England Wales Northern Ireland
17:33across the week if you average out going to be below average for that following
17:38week after that well there aren't any strong signals at all really look
17:43showery through next week which is why it's slightly wetter than average for
17:47England and Wales and staying on the cool side generally after that for the
17:51final week of June the week into Glastonbury actually the weather signals
17:54are pretty weak I've been speaking to Helena deputy chief here at the Met
18:00office today we did our 14-day outlook earlier and again just talking to her
18:05just get the feeling there isn't there isn't any strong weather signals for
18:08that final week of June and that's often the case at this time of year there's no
18:13real global drivers dictating our weather patterns so we often get that
18:16this time of year no really strong signals high pressure or low pressure it
18:20is well a bit of a toss a bit of a toss it really for that final week of June
18:25this again from the European model is for the following week and it does
18:28indicate perhaps the pressure may be building from the West this is a
18:32temperature and it does indicate that perhaps temperatures in the West may be
18:35a little bit above average in the West for that final week but I can't
18:39emphasize enough how there's no really strong signal for for the weather
18:43patterns beyond you there's no strong signal certainly for anything
18:46significantly warm we may just see higher pressure nudging in from the West
18:51as we go through the latter part of June but no real strong signal for anything
18:55significant in our weather going forward so we can't find summer for the UK going
19:00forward let's look back because I can definitely find summer for you if we
19:04look back exactly a year one year ago today the UK was officially in a heat
19:12wave with parts of the UK over 30 degrees Celsius actually on the 10th it
19:17was over 30 degrees Celsius and then the 11th these are the temperatures from the
19:2111th of June last year compare and contrast to the temperatures for today
19:26for this afternoon 14 15 degrees compared to temperatures quite widely in
19:31the mid-twenties and a few places over 30 degrees Celsius so going back a year
19:36well that's where we can find some sunshine some hot and sunny weather
19:40across the UK which do you prefer be interesting to know in the comments
19:44actually I think most of us would prefer something in between I certainly myself
19:49about 25 degrees would be about right but which would you which you prefer 32
19:53or 16 degrees Celsius interesting let us know in the comments which one you would
19:59rather have but yes no real signs of summer for our weather going forward or
20:05going back as I talked about in the past actually 2020 was also interesting in
20:15terms of how it started pretty cool talked about how this year has started
20:19on the cool side and people are commenting quite a bit on it but we've
20:23had other cold starts to June in the past 2015 2019 were also pretty chilly
20:28starts to June this chart is showing June 2024 each of these maps is for a
20:35different day so for the first nine days in June compared to the average so the
20:40anomaly temperature map and you can see actually that the second was generally
20:44bit warmer than average before we turned blue and I see 2024 was remarkably
20:49similar with the first and the second of June generally above average quite a bit
20:54above average in northwest Scotland and then we embarked on a pretty chilly
20:57spell for over a week temperatures were quite a bit below average across a good
21:02chunk of the UK back in 2020 it then did warm up and towards the end of the month
21:07that dark red one toward the bottom right there we did have quite a hot spell
21:11towards the end of June people remember 2020 of course and the certainly the
21:15spring because it was locked down and there was a lot of sunshine around but
21:19actually June of that year did start off fairly chilly and overall I think it
21:24ended up being a little bit below average in terms of its temperature
21:27overall across the whole month so it's not exceptional the weather we're
21:32experiencing at the moment something comparable did happen just just for
21:36June's ago historically I'm going to take you back and a year again now
21:43because this is this is a sad moment for me because if you've been following the
21:48Met Office across social media for a number of years we've often this time of
21:52year highlighted a particular anomaly in the summer stats the 13th of June I
21:59loved this stats deeply the 13th of June was the only day in meteorological
22:05summer never to have reached 30 degrees Celsius and that changed last year so
22:10during the hot spell during the heatwave that we talked about these were the
22:13temperatures we recorded on the 13th of June 2023 that brought an end to that
22:20amazing stat that I loved that the 13th of June was the only day in
22:24meteorological summer never to have recorded 30 Celsius so that has gone
22:28every day now in meteorological summer which is of course the month of June
22:31July and August has recorded a temperature over 30 degrees Celsius and
22:35that just I'd mention that because it's a sad moment for me that we've lost that
22:40stat okay enough of that I hope you've enjoyed this journey we have found some
22:45hot and sunny weather albeit not for the UK do please keep your comments
22:50coming we will read them we'll reply to some of them as well I get in the chat
22:55probably about half for this afternoon assuming we can upload this in time and
23:00yeah I'll be live interacting on the comments then but keep your comments
23:04coming in if you're not watching this even if watching it later on because we
23:07do read them all and we do love your feedback we'd really do appreciate it as
23:10well so if you could hit the like button that would give us a big boost as well
23:14thank you very much we can keep doing these things and share the love let
23:17other people know that we do this and that we are on here and the deep dive
23:21for other met heads people who may love this kind of thing do share the love and
23:26let them know as well but that's it for me for this week thank you for watching
23:30I hope you had fun and I'll see you again soon