Share Market Opening LIVE | Stock Market LIVE News | Business News | Nifty LIVE | Sensex LIVE News - video Dailymotion

NDTV Profit

- Global news flow & cues - Stocks to watch, trade setup - F&O strategies   Niraj Shah, Tamanna Inamdar and Samina Nalwala bring all this and more as we head toward the 'India Market Open'. #NDTVProfitLive   Guest List: Kunal Bajaj CEO and Co-Founder of CloudExtel  Shilpa Rout, Derivatives Lead Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher  Avinash Goraskshakar, Director, Research Profitmart Securities  Chandan Taparia, Head- Technical & Derivatives Research MOFSL  John Chambers Chairman, USISPF Founder & CEO, JC2 Ventures, Chairman Emeritus, Cisco  Girish Kousgi, MD & CEO, PNB Housing Finance  ______________________________________________________   For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/ Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports Follow NDTV Profit here Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/ #ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE

Transcript

00:00:00 In the Gen Z lingo, it's meh, as they say.

00:00:05 But, you know, there's that wait and watch mode.

00:00:07 Nothing too negative, nothing too positive.

00:00:10 Consolidation phase, perhaps, when it comes to Wall Street,

00:00:14 tepid movement all around.

00:00:16 Wait for the kind of data that will give

00:00:19 the next leg of direction.

00:00:21 So you saw that cautious mood on Wall Street.

00:00:23 Very small gains, if at all, for the S&P 500

00:00:28 and the Dow, most of them flat, NASDAQ slightly up

00:00:34 in the green.

00:00:35 You see what the tenure is also doing.

00:00:38 And small slide up, small slide up

00:00:42 ahead of all of that data which is coming in.

00:00:45 Interesting moves on crude that we saw.

00:00:47 And you had a statement from Biden

00:00:49 saying that he expects by March 4, there will be a ceasefire.

00:00:53 There is an agreement that in Gaza,

00:00:55 there will be a ceasefire during the holy month of Ramadan.

00:00:59 So that might see crude cool off a bit.

00:01:02 There's also this anticipation that OPEC plus

00:01:06 will extend their production cuts for the next quarter

00:01:08 as well.

00:01:09 So that would be the next driver as far as crude is concerned.

00:01:13 On the Asia front as well, not too many major cues.

00:01:18 We should pull up and see what the Nikkei is doing.

00:01:20 Because after hitting new highs every day,

00:01:23 a bit of consolidation this morning,

00:01:25 a bit of pull up, but mixed cues from Asia.

00:01:28 So I'm not sure that there are too many cues

00:01:30 from global markets that Indian investors will take today.

00:01:33 Let me just pull up fund flows also while we're at it.

00:01:36 Because yesterday, DIIs were buying.

00:01:38 FBIs continue to be sellers in equities, not in debt, though,

00:01:42 as Samina will tell you in just a bit.

00:01:44 Debt is a whole different story.

00:01:46 But on the equity side, FBIs continue to sell.

00:01:49 Yesterday, about 1,500 crores.

00:01:50 DIIs bought about 2,800 crores.

00:01:54 So the big movers and shakers perhaps

00:01:57 will not be taking global cues today, Neeraj.

00:02:00 It will be based on the domestic stories.

00:02:02 - Yeah, most certainly.

00:02:03 And even on the domestic story, here's some,

00:02:06 I was just thinking because yesterday we spoke

00:02:08 about how the market is this narrow,

00:02:10 narrow candles almost every single day.

00:02:14 So I was trying to think about what's happening

00:02:15 over the last two months and practically nothing.

00:02:18 But the interesting small data point.

00:02:20 So is it the buy on dips market?

00:02:22 That's the question that a lot of people ask.

00:02:24 And here's some data to kind of exemplify that.

00:02:27 Look at the Nifty levels on the 15th of Jan.

00:02:30 We were at 22097 on a closing basis.

00:02:33 We scaled down to 21238, eventually at about 21616.

00:02:38 So if you take a one month account of Jan 15 to Feb 12,

00:02:41 around one month, we dipped about 60650 odd points.

00:02:45 Look at what happened in the next or the subsequent week.

00:02:48 From Feb 12 to Feb 16, we scaled back the entire 600 points.

00:02:52 So it's just taking a very, very little time

00:02:55 to swiftly pull back on any kind of downticks

00:02:59 that are happening.

00:03:00 Is that why the market, is that why the larger populace

00:03:03 believes that this is our buy on dip market?

00:03:06 Maybe so.

00:03:06 I mean, so it's an interesting thing.

00:03:09 It's too short a timeframe, but it's something

00:03:11 that we observed most part of the last quarter

00:03:14 of calendar year 23 as well.

00:03:17 It is deemed one of large volatility.

00:03:19 If you look at the VIX numbers between 14.5 to 16.5,

00:03:23 so hardly any moves there.

00:03:24 Even today, if PCR, for example, is at one, exactly one.

00:03:28 So there is no difference between the call writers

00:03:31 and the put writers on the nifty sentiment.

00:03:33 And that's why the index is fairly flat.

00:03:34 Maybe that's why guest after guest who's coming

00:03:37 on the platform or the channel is saying

00:03:39 that we are not trading the index.

00:03:40 We are trading other things.

00:03:41 And what are they trading, well, amongst other things,

00:03:43 real estate certainly seems to be right up there.

00:03:45 Was the best performing index last week?

00:03:47 Was the best performing index yesterday as well?

00:03:50 Giving company to real estate was infrastructure.

00:03:53 And a clutch of infrastructure stocks

00:03:55 had a really smart move in trade yesterday.

00:03:58 Look at a K&R construction, PNC Infra, GR Infra,

00:04:01 Ashoka BuildCon, 2, 3, 4% the kind of moves

00:04:05 that came into each of these stocks.

00:04:06 But the K&R was up about 5% in trade yesterday.

00:04:10 We have this table, if I'm not wrong,

00:04:12 which shows K&R, PNC, GR, Ashoka,

00:04:14 and just the kind of moves that they had yesterday.

00:04:16 Very strong moves in the session.

00:04:19 So maybe from an equity side,

00:04:22 infrastructure also becomes a pocket to watch.

00:04:25 But clearly, Samina, there is lots happening

00:04:27 on the debt side as well.

00:04:28 - Yeah, and you've talked about infrastructure.

00:04:29 There is an interesting invit that opens today.

00:04:32 We'll talk about that in a minute.

00:04:33 But yeah, debt markets.

00:04:35 So while we've been talking about how FBIs

00:04:38 have been selling out of Indian equity markets,

00:04:40 and the rupee hasn't been declining.

00:04:42 So you might have noticed that despite foreigners

00:04:44 selling equity markets, the rupee has actually

00:04:47 remained fairly stable.

00:04:48 It's only down 0.4% for the month of Feb.

00:04:51 Now why is that happening, right?

00:04:53 So while there is a sell pressure coming in

00:04:55 from equity markets, guess what FBIs or foreigners

00:04:58 are buying?

00:04:59 They're buying into the Indian debt market.

00:05:00 Indian debt market record inflows coming from foreigners

00:05:04 stands at a six year high.

00:05:06 So for the month of Jan, they bought debt Indian paper

00:05:10 to the tune of $2.5 billion.

00:05:13 Feb, we're almost at the end of Feb,

00:05:15 they've bought about $2 billion of Indian paper already.

00:05:18 Now this comes in on heels of India's inclusion

00:05:21 in the JP Morgan and Bloomberg index.

00:05:24 Both these inclusions will draw funds to the tune

00:05:27 of 30 to $35 billion in the Indian equity,

00:05:31 in the Indian debt market over the next 10 months.

00:05:34 Couple of factors that you wanna keep in mind

00:05:36 when you read all this information.

00:05:38 Very slowly and gradually, passive funds have been buying

00:05:41 into the Indian debt market, not just in Jan,

00:05:43 and Feb, but this really started in October.

00:05:45 And hence, it's very easy for us to collate the fact

00:05:48 that this is happening largely on back of this inclusion.

00:05:51 What does this do for the currency?

00:05:53 Remember, the RBI has been very active

00:05:55 in managing the currency historically.

00:05:58 The rupee, like I said, has declined very marginally

00:06:00 and it's been the three least volatile currencies in 2023.

00:06:04 And 2023 was a tough year for a lot of currency markets.

00:06:08 What are we expecting?

00:06:09 We're expecting that the rupee may continue

00:06:12 to remain range bound, even though you have $35 billion

00:06:15 of funds coming in over the next 10 months,

00:06:17 the rupee is not expected to appreciate too much.

00:06:20 A stronger rupee doesn't do well for a country like India.

00:06:23 Like Neeraj and Tamannaah had indicated yesterday,

00:06:25 one big reason Japanese equity markets are pending well

00:06:28 is because of a weaker yen.

00:06:30 Very similarly, a stronger rupee will not garner well

00:06:33 for Indian equity markets or Indian exporters,

00:06:35 and that's not good news for the RBI.

00:06:37 And hence, while you're seeing this big chunk

00:06:39 of money coming in, the rupee will continue to remain

00:06:42 fairly stable and may see a little bit of depreciation

00:06:44 over the course of the next eight to 10 months.

00:06:46 So that's the debt market,

00:06:48 but we've got a whole lot of stocks as well, I believe.

00:06:49 So a quick check on implied nifty before we move on

00:06:52 to equities and stocks that you want to track this morning.

00:06:55 What if an idea is stop recall?

00:06:58 We've talked about this for the last few days,

00:07:00 but that's implied nifty indicating to a flat start.

00:07:03 So don't expect fireworks in trade this morning.

00:07:06 It's been a tight range, it's been stable actually.

00:07:08 And I think that's what investors will be taking heart from.

00:07:11 Traders, of course, finding it hard to find opportunity

00:07:14 in a market such as this.

00:07:16 Well, on Vodafone Idea, the board has approved

00:07:18 an equity fundraise of 20,000 crores.

00:07:20 Now that's a huge sum of money coming into a company

00:07:23 that is cash-trapped and finding it hard to make ends meet.

00:07:27 Who's giving the money, when this money's happening,

00:07:29 of course, we'll take you through all that

00:07:30 and talk to an analyst to understand

00:07:33 what this means for the telecom sector,

00:07:34 what it means for Vodafone Idea and Indus Towers as well.

00:07:38 They've also said that they're looking to raise 45,000 crores

00:07:40 via a combination of equity and debt.

00:07:43 They've also made commitments that they may be able

00:07:45 to complete this fundraise by the coming quarter.

00:07:48 The fundraise will be reused to increase the coverage

00:07:52 of 4G, 5G network rollout, capacity expansion,

00:07:56 and actually, and of course,

00:07:57 running in operational use as well.

00:07:59 The promoter will be participating in this fundraise.

00:08:02 Remember, the promoter's been very clear in the past

00:08:04 that they're not looking to exit Vodafone Idea,

00:08:07 even though things are looking tough at this stage.

00:08:09 What will this mean for Indus Tower?

00:08:11 Their receivables will hopefully come through

00:08:13 and that could garner well for the company.

00:08:16 Just a quick word, Indus Towers entered the NSE ban list

00:08:20 as of yesterday, so this morning,

00:08:21 you will not have an opportunity to trade this one

00:08:24 in the F&O space, so just a word on that.

00:08:27 Well, Zee's back in the news.

00:08:29 They have been in the F&O ban for the last few days.

00:08:32 Very stable moves.

00:08:32 You're not seeing too much happening on that stock.

00:08:35 It trades close to 173 rupees.

00:08:38 I guess no news could also be good news for this one,

00:08:40 but this morning, they've once again reiterated

00:08:42 what they said yesterday, that they've approved,

00:08:44 the board, we believe, has approved a committee

00:08:48 to strengthen the committee.

00:08:49 We'll, of course, look at it,

00:08:51 be an independent advisory committee,

00:08:52 which would include investigation assessment.

00:08:55 That is gonna be the primary responsibility of the company.

00:08:58 So now, whether or not this means anything for the stock,

00:09:01 but it is a news point that we are highlighting

00:09:03 for you this morning.

00:09:04 Another smaller one, but worth a mention,

00:09:06 because counters like these usually react

00:09:08 to order wins such as this, GE and TD.

00:09:11 The company has secured a order worth 370 crores

00:09:15 from the Power Grid Corporation of India

00:09:17 for the supply of 765 KV Shandractyars

00:09:21 for various transmission system projects in India.

00:09:24 The stock will be up and about in trade,

00:09:26 is what we're expecting on back of that pretty big order win,

00:09:29 but I'll toss it over to you guys

00:09:31 and then talk about the inward that opens this morning

00:09:33 that I'm quite excited about.

00:09:34 - Yeah, clearly, and both are big stories.

00:09:38 Vodafone, of course, will be talking about

00:09:39 in a lot more detail that 45,000 crore target is the big one.

00:09:44 I just wanted to point out one thing on Vodafone.

00:09:47 From FY25, their AGR bills begin.

00:09:51 Remember, they had a moratorium,

00:09:52 but they still have to pay it.

00:09:54 FY25 onwards, they have to pay 5,000 crores.

00:09:57 In FY26, it's about 30,000 crores.

00:10:00 So even if they do end up raising 45,000 crores

00:10:03 through a combination of debt and equity,

00:10:06 they are going to be presented with a bill of 35,000 crores,

00:10:11 which will go to their largest shareholder,

00:10:13 which is the government of India.

00:10:15 So how does that all pan out, we'll have to see.

00:10:17 And just quick word on Zee, we spoke about it before.

00:10:19 It's the same advisory committee

00:10:21 that they announced a couple of days ago.

00:10:23 They've rebranded them as the investigation committee.

00:10:26 The same questions emerge,

00:10:27 that if it's your committee, your guys,

00:10:29 are they going to really investigate

00:10:31 allegations of wrongdoing against yourself?

00:10:34 So I don't know if that's going to really give

00:10:36 a lot of confidence in terms of the corporate governance

00:10:39 issues that Zee is facing.

00:10:40 But Patanjali is the other one which was in the news.

00:10:43 So the Supreme Court has made observations

00:10:45 and come down quite heavily on the Ayurved business

00:10:49 of Patanjali, saying that you're making claims

00:10:51 which are incorrect, misleading, advertisement, et cetera.

00:10:55 What we want to clarify is that this will have no bearing

00:10:58 on any kind in terms of revenue, business, et cetera,

00:11:02 for Patanjali Foods, which is a separate listed entity.

00:11:05 And I thought it's important to make that clarification

00:11:08 that Patanjali Foods is a separate business altogether.

00:11:11 I don't know if there's going to be a sentimental hit or not,

00:11:13 but definitely a stop to watch.

00:11:15 SJVN is the other one.

00:11:18 And as renewables, solar continues to be the flavor

00:11:23 of the season, SJVN is in the news

00:11:25 because they've bagged 100 megawatt solar power

00:11:28 project at a tariff of 2.64 rupees per unit.

00:11:32 This is with the Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam.

00:11:35 And the cost of the project is about 642 crores.

00:11:40 So SJVN may be in focus once again.

00:11:44 The stock was up yesterday as well.

00:11:45 All cargo logistics is the other one I want to talk about.

00:11:48 And we've been consistently mentioning the Red Sea

00:11:50 crisis, the Red Sea crisis.

00:11:52 What is it actually doing to companies?

00:11:54 So they've come out with their monthly business update,

00:11:57 which is definitely showing impact.

00:12:00 It's delayed shipments for all cargo logistics.

00:12:03 The volumes have reduced by 3% for the month.

00:12:07 And the biggest hit in terms of volumes

00:12:09 is in LATAM, Europe, and America.

00:12:12 India volumes, though, have increased in Jan.

00:12:15 So you might see a further hit on all cargo logistics.

00:12:18 They were down about 2% yesterday.

00:12:22 But a few more on your radar, Neeraj?

00:12:25 Yes, there are a few stocks.

00:12:29 So for example, this one, Torrent Power

00:12:32 could be an interesting one in the session today.

00:12:34 So it's emerged as a successful bidder for a transmission

00:12:37 project in Cholapur, the project to evacuate

00:12:39 renewable energy with a capacity of about 1,500 megawatts.

00:12:42 And that's a large one.

00:12:44 It's also one of a kind thing that Torrent Power

00:12:46 has gotten into because they are getting into the transmission

00:12:49 project for the first time.

00:12:50 It entails setting up a transmission line

00:12:52 of approximately 44 kilometers.

00:12:54 So this could be interesting for Torrent Power.

00:12:56 So do watch out for this one, a key stock

00:12:59 to monitor in the session today.

00:13:01 From amongst the brokerage notes--

00:13:02 and there are various notes on Vodafone, Idea, Bharti, Airtel,

00:13:06 et cetera.

00:13:07 But I thought the DreamFolks note from Motilal Uswal

00:13:09 was interesting.

00:13:10 They've initiated coverage with a buy rating and a target

00:13:13 price of 650 rupees per share.

00:13:15 They expect benefits from rapid growth in the Indian airline

00:13:17 industry, expected strong 20% revenue and 28% PAT CAGR,

00:13:22 or FY '24 to '26.

00:13:24 So this is the other interesting piece

00:13:26 as well that they are talking about.

00:13:29 28% PAT CAGR is really interesting.

00:13:32 And while they are venturing into industrial markets,

00:13:34 according to Motilal Uswal, as a lucrative long-term

00:13:37 opportunity.

00:13:38 So do keep a keen eye out for this one as well.

00:13:41 So DreamFolks is certainly something

00:13:43 that one should keep a keen eye out for.

00:13:45 The last one is BLS International.

00:13:47 Columbia Pet Cam has bought 21 lakh shares

00:13:49 at 373 rupees per share.

00:13:51 It's an entity associated with Aditya Kumar Halwasia, who

00:13:54 recently bought a large stake in TFCI, you remember,

00:13:58 and associated with many other large investments.

00:14:01 So it's just the name associated with this bulk deal

00:14:04 in BLS International, which may evoke a response.

00:14:08 So do watch out for BLS.

00:14:09 Was up about 2% at the session yesterday.

00:14:12 Let's see if there is more in store for BLS.

00:14:17 And of course, there is an eye out for the delivery-based

00:14:23 buying that we saw in a clutch of stocks like Uniparts,

00:14:26 Railtel, Mahindra Logistics.

00:14:27 Look at the kind of price and volume action

00:14:30 that we saw in most of these.

00:14:32 Ganesh Housing, interestingly, was up 10% day before yesterday

00:14:35 and was up about 5.5% yesterday as well.

00:14:37 So 3x the one-month average, but up about 16%,

00:14:42 17% in the last two days.

00:14:44 So do watch out for some of these stocks.

00:14:45 Could be interesting.

00:14:46 ICCA Lombard, too.

00:14:47 Yes, ICCA Bank bought into it.

00:14:50 And that's why the volumes and the price activity yesterday.

00:14:52 Could it do an encore?

00:14:53 Remains to be seen.

00:14:55 But an interesting move in some of these stocks.

00:14:57 Even some of these defense names are looking pretty good

00:14:59 on the charts.

00:15:00 So your BDL, HAL all had a pretty solid run in trade.

00:15:05 And on charts, they seem to be ready for a breakout.

00:15:07 But we'll talk about that and more with our analyst

00:15:11 in the next hour.

00:15:12 But one interesting piece that has been around for a while--

00:15:17 and these are Infrastructure Investment Trusts,

00:15:19 more popularly known as INVITS.

00:15:21 Now, these have been around for a very long time.

00:15:23 But they're recently gaining popularity,

00:15:25 one with ultra-H&Is and also with retail investors.

00:15:28 So if you're looking to play the India growth story,

00:15:31 the proxy of all these auto wins, road construction, port

00:15:34 construction that we very often talk about,

00:15:37 the one other way to do this, besides buying an equity stock

00:15:40 or investing in an infrastructure mutual fund,

00:15:43 is actually investing in an investment, which

00:15:46 is an infrastructure investment, more popularly known

00:15:48 as INVITS.

00:15:50 Like I said, INVITS are very similar to mutual funds.

00:15:52 They are traded.

00:15:53 The only difference being that you can actually buy--

00:15:55 and they're bought in units, just like you buy mutual funds.

00:15:58 The key difference between an infrastructure mutual fund

00:16:00 and an infrastructure INVIT, or an Infrastructure Investment

00:16:04 Trust, is both of these--

00:16:07 while a mutual fund can, of course,

00:16:08 invest in various assets or equity companies,

00:16:12 an INVIT can only invest in infrastructure projects.

00:16:16 Their payouts as well are different.

00:16:17 They pay out a dividend.

00:16:19 They go into projects that are completed

00:16:20 by regulation of the SEBI.

00:16:23 So a lot more safer, a better risk-reward ratio,

00:16:26 and also a lot more liquid.

00:16:28 Why we are talking about this is because there

00:16:30 is Bharat Highway Infrastructure Investment, which

00:16:32 is an INVIT.

00:16:33 The IPO opens today and closes on the 1st of March.

00:16:38 They've already raised 825 crores

00:16:41 through a bunch of very big investors,

00:16:43 institutional investors, largely.

00:16:45 The expectation is that this one will open today,

00:16:47 garner 2,500 crores from the public markets,

00:16:50 and will look to list in the first week of March.

00:16:54 Interesting, if you're looking at playing this sector,

00:16:56 if INVITS is something that you're

00:16:57 looking to diversify your portfolio with,

00:17:00 this might be a good one to consider, guys.

00:17:03 And talking about IPOs, Juniper also debuts today.

00:17:05 Juniper Hotels IPO, it's a tie-up between Salaf Hotels

00:17:09 and Hayat.

00:17:10 And 1,800 crore IPO, 360 is the issue price.

00:17:15 It was subscribed two times on its final day.

00:17:17 So that's one to watch out for.

00:17:19 But the stock of the day, and the story this morning,

00:17:22 is definitely the telecom sector and Vodafone idea.

00:17:26 Now, will they, won't they, how much money

00:17:28 will the promoters put?

00:17:30 All of this has been impacting the stock price

00:17:32 over the last few days.

00:17:34 And really, the big question is that can Vodafone idea

00:17:38 get a new lease of life?

00:17:40 Remember, it was a ventilator of sorts

00:17:42 before the government came in and actually kept it alive,

00:17:48 because you didn't want to do a bully in the Indian telecom

00:17:51 sector.

00:17:51 Now, what's happened yesterday is a board meeting

00:17:54 where they've approved a fund raise.

00:17:56 They're going to raise 45,000 crores in all.

00:17:59 About 20,000 crore rupees off that is equity,

00:18:02 and the promoters will participate.

00:18:04 We don't know to what extent the rest is going to be in debt.

00:18:07 They plan to raise at least the equity portion of it

00:18:10 in the first quarter.

00:18:12 Can they raise that kind of money right now

00:18:15 is the question.

00:18:16 Kunal Bajaj, CEO and co-founder of CloudXtel,

00:18:19 is with us on the show to give us his perspective.

00:18:22 Very good morning, Kunal.

00:18:23 Great to speak with you on NDTV Profit.

00:18:27 Let's begin with your take of the figure that

00:18:29 has come out of the board meeting yesterday,

00:18:31 and 45,000 crores in all, 20,000 crores of that equity.

00:18:36 Do you think it's doable right now?

00:18:38 Is it overambitious?

00:18:40 Good morning.

00:18:41 How are you guys today?

00:18:42 And thank you so much for having me on this morning.

00:18:46 Certainly, I think Vodafone has been at this

00:18:48 for quite some time now.

00:18:49 They would have certainly spoken to all the relevant investors.

00:18:53 And because we've been hearing this news come out

00:18:55 in bits and pieces and grabs over the months,

00:18:57 saying that the fundraisers right around the corner.

00:19:00 So I think it's very positive that finally they've

00:19:02 had a definitive board meeting where they are talking

00:19:05 about the specific numbers, approving it.

00:19:07 And also, we've been hearing a lot of good messaging

00:19:09 from the promoters that they're not walking away from this.

00:19:12 So they're ready to participate from an equity level.

00:19:14 So it looks like the light might finally

00:19:17 be there at the end of the tunnel.

00:19:20 Does it matter how much the promoters put in

00:19:23 and how many external investors come in?

00:19:25 Because that's the hitch, right?

00:19:27 They've been hunting for external investors for a while.

00:19:30 And they really haven't seen any big player

00:19:34 come and put their might behind Vodafone.

00:19:36 In fact, Nomura note out this morning

00:19:38 that have kept their rating to reduce.

00:19:41 They've maintained a target price of 6 and 1/2 base.

00:19:43 And say it's positive if they're able to bring

00:19:46 in external investors.

00:19:47 How key is that in your view, Kunal?

00:19:50 Yes, so I do agree with that.

00:19:52 Because at the end of the day, even with promoter

00:19:55 participation, we know that the promoter participation

00:19:58 is going to be limited.

00:19:59 So the 45,000 crores that we're talking about,

00:20:01 of which, as you mentioned, 20,000 crores is equity,

00:20:04 that's OK for now.

00:20:05 But that's not enough for what is really

00:20:07 going to be required from a debt repayment perspective,

00:20:10 as well as from a CapEx commitment perspective

00:20:12 over the next three to five years.

00:20:14 So this is not a one time thing which we need to look at.

00:20:17 We need to look at what is going to be the commitment to fund

00:20:21 and strengthen and reinvest in VIL over the next three

00:20:25 to five years.

00:20:26 And only if we have that consistent commitment that's

00:20:28 going to continue to be there, will we

00:20:30 expect them to be able to really bounce back from the situation

00:20:33 that they're in today.

00:20:34 So I think that's why external participation is

00:20:36 quite important.

00:20:38 Kunal, dues that Vodafone will owe

00:20:42 is 5,400 crores in F525 and 30,000 crores in F526.

00:20:48 That's over 35,000 crores that's paid

00:20:50 below the next two years.

00:20:52 Now, if you're looking at a fundraiser of 45,000 crores,

00:20:55 how is that math going to work out

00:20:57 if the big push is going to be towards expansion?

00:20:59 And that's the need of the hour as well.

00:21:02 Yeah, no, I completely agree with you.

00:21:04 And I think that's exactly the point, that this 45,000 crores

00:21:07 is just a start.

00:21:08 Even if, like you said, you look at just the debt amount,

00:21:11 40,000 crores due in the next two years, of which 95%

00:21:14 is also due to the government.

00:21:16 So unless the government steps in and decides

00:21:19 that they are going to further enhance the support

00:21:21 and the package, which they have already extended to the telecom

00:21:24 sector, or which they may specifically

00:21:26 have to extend to Vodafone, then yes, it's certainly

00:21:28 not going to be enough in terms of the mathematics.

00:21:31 Because in addition to this, they have vendor dues,

00:21:33 plus they haven't yet started the 5G rollout.

00:21:35 But I think that's exactly to the point that

00:21:37 was being made earlier.

00:21:38 If you have an external financial investor

00:21:41 or strategic investor that comes and participates in this,

00:21:43 then that will show a longer term commitment.

00:21:45 Because no financial investor is going

00:21:47 to come in thinking that I'm only

00:21:49 going to put in 20 today, or a certain amount today,

00:21:51 and that's going to be it.

00:21:52 Because I think everybody realizes

00:21:53 that this is a long journey for Vodafone

00:21:56 to get back out of the situation that they've gotten themselves

00:21:59 into today.

00:22:00 Can I have one quick question?

00:22:01 I know part of the fundraise is going to be through debt,

00:22:03 and part of it is going to be through equity.

00:22:06 Now, getting external investors may or may not

00:22:09 be challenging from the look of it.

00:22:10 It doesn't seem like it's an easy task.

00:22:12 And the timeline is next quarter,

00:22:14 which makes it even more challenging.

00:22:16 Assuming that they do go out and raise the equity,

00:22:19 the rest of it is raised through debt,

00:22:21 is the cost of funding going to be something

00:22:24 you want to watch out for?

00:22:25 Because getting the money is one thing,

00:22:27 but getting the money expensive is only

00:22:30 going to make this tougher looking ahead

00:22:32 for the next couple of years.

00:22:35 Completely agree with you on that.

00:22:36 Because you can't raise debt in such a way

00:22:39 that you end up making the whole bigger for yourself.

00:22:42 So today, I think one of the good things

00:22:44 is that, at least from an external financial debt

00:22:47 perspective, i.e.

00:22:48 non-government debt, they've been

00:22:49 able to get a lot of things under control

00:22:51 over the past couple of years.

00:22:52 And they've been picking away at that

00:22:54 and actually being quite responsible about it.

00:22:57 It's the government debt today that's the major overhang.

00:22:59 But yes, if you raise very expensive debt

00:23:01 from external markets just in order

00:23:03 to get external investors participating,

00:23:05 then the cost of that debt, you're right,

00:23:07 is going to create a bigger problem.

00:23:10 And that's probably why I think what we're looking at

00:23:12 is something that is going to be a combination of the debt

00:23:15 and the equity and potentially some kind

00:23:17 of structured instrument that may come in as well.

00:23:20 Kunal, I just want to understand what this is going

00:23:24 to do for them in real terms.

00:23:26 So if you look at their press release

00:23:28 and what they've sent to the exchanges,

00:23:30 obviously, as expected, they're very optimistic.

00:23:33 They say that we've been improving, 4G, 5G, rollout,

00:23:36 et cetera.

00:23:37 But look at the industry right now

00:23:39 where you have very strong competitors, essentially

00:23:43 a duopoly with Vodafone kind of hanging on,

00:23:46 if we're being very honest.

00:23:47 So to what extent can those goals be achieved,

00:23:52 even if a 45,000 crore fund raise goes out successfully?

00:24:01 So I think the fact that Vodafone has survived this long

00:24:04 with such intense competition and also being almost two years

00:24:08 behind the ball from a launch of 5G perspective shows,

00:24:11 and as well as the fact that they've

00:24:12 been able to decrease the bleed in terms

00:24:15 of number of subscribers which are exiting.

00:24:17 And like you said, some of the optimism

00:24:19 which they've displayed have come out

00:24:20 in last quarter's numbers where you've

00:24:22 seen quarter-on-quarter improvement in EBITDA.

00:24:24 So I dare to say maybe we are sort of already at the bottom.

00:24:30 And this is kind of the last opportunity, but also

00:24:34 the right time for this type of investment

00:24:36 to come in because the customers who are still there on Vodafone

00:24:39 are clearly very, very loyal to them.

00:24:42 So you do have high levels of churn,

00:24:43 but that's typically in the prepaid user base

00:24:45 at the very bottom.

00:24:46 But the postpaid subscribers that they have,

00:24:48 the corporate customers that they have,

00:24:50 the higher value customers who have been using 4G

00:24:52 for a long time, the fact that many of those

00:24:54 have still not churned out despite the fact that 5G is

00:24:57 available in the market and it's been available in the market

00:24:59 for almost two solid years now shows

00:25:01 that you have some real loyalty that's left.

00:25:03 And if Vodafone can recover from that,

00:25:05 deliver back on its network quality, launch 5G,

00:25:08 and really provide those same services to that loyal user

00:25:11 base, there is an opportunity to bounce back,

00:25:13 leveraging the spectrum assets they have,

00:25:15 leveraging the network assets that they have,

00:25:16 and clearly the goodwill that they

00:25:18 have with this customer base.

00:25:20 And in terms, Kunal, of impact, say, on a Bharti Airtel,

00:25:24 there's Morgan Stanley note out this morning talking

00:25:26 about whether this impacts Bharti Airtel at all.

00:25:30 And their take, at least, is that it's a limited upside.

00:25:33 And all this does is prevent further consolidation

00:25:37 in the industry as of now.

00:25:38 So it leaves a life.

00:25:40 In your view, is there any impact on Bharti Airtel?

00:25:43 And additionally, how do you view the government efforts

00:25:47 to revive and grow BSNL in this bigger context?

00:25:52 Yeah, so I think from that perspective,

00:25:54 the impact on Bharti Airtel and on Jio, for that matter,

00:25:58 as well, is going to be quite limited in the sense

00:26:00 that the market is really big enough.

00:26:02 And we've had many more operators performing

00:26:06 financially very well, even in the past.

00:26:08 And I think we're at a stage where operators realize

00:26:11 that further competition, which is just

00:26:16 like an unsensible type of competition, where you're just

00:26:19 randomly cutting prices and things like that,

00:26:21 is not healthy for themselves or for the sector.

00:26:23 So if we have a strong Vodafone back again, what we will have

00:26:27 is a proper three-player market.

00:26:29 It's very unlikely that we would see in the near term

00:26:32 Vodafone get back to the type of market share

00:26:34 that they used to have before.

00:26:35 And therefore, they're not likely to take away

00:26:37 substantial amounts of market share from Airtel or Jio.

00:26:40 And at the same time, given that ARPUs

00:26:41 have been rising for everybody, you're

00:26:44 in a situation where the sector itself is growing

00:26:47 and the health of the sector itself is growing.

00:26:49 And having this third operator around

00:26:50 is only going to help with that.

00:26:52 So yeah, I agree.

00:26:52 I don't see too much of a negative impact

00:26:54 or a very limited potential downside on Airtel.

00:26:59 Just one quick last question.

00:27:01 This is more sector-related.

00:27:02 We've moved on from 3G, 4G, 5G, and now we

00:27:06 are talking AI and IoT.

00:27:08 At a time like this, when we're already at the next leg,

00:27:11 you've got Vodafone not just one, but two steps behind,

00:27:14 in that sense.

00:27:15 How is it going to play out for the sector?

00:27:17 I mean, how is one going to monetize--

00:27:19 and not just Vodafone, right, even

00:27:20 the other players in the business--

00:27:22 monetize 5G at this stage?

00:27:24 Because if you've already moved to AI,

00:27:26 I'm guessing this is a challenge unless Elon Musk gets

00:27:29 into this business in India.

00:27:32 So with every launch of a new generation,

00:27:36 the initial launch phase has, by and large,

00:27:39 always disappointed, right?

00:27:40 So if you think about when 3G was first launched

00:27:42 and when 4G was first launched, everyone's like, hey,

00:27:45 this is just a faster 2G when 3G came out,

00:27:48 or when 4G was there, it's just a faster 3G.

00:27:50 But what you notice over a period of time

00:27:52 is as the capacity is made available

00:27:54 and device penetration really starts

00:27:56 to permeate across the user base,

00:27:59 the use cases start to come out that leverage the bandwidth

00:28:02 that's available, and that's when the monetization kicks in.

00:28:05 So the entire shift from 2G to 3G

00:28:08 was the shift basically from messaging

00:28:10 to browsing the internet.

00:28:12 And from 3G to 4G, the entire shift was to video streaming.

00:28:15 And now if you see where we are as a country, right,

00:28:17 we're amongst the largest-- not the largest--

00:28:19 consumer of YouTube content in the world.

00:28:21 You have all sorts of other types of video content

00:28:23 on Insta and others, which are now actually being monetized

00:28:26 and business models have emerged,

00:28:27 not to mention all the OTT players.

00:28:29 So the shift to 5G, as we get that penetration,

00:28:32 you will get new use cases and new models coming out.

00:28:35 And then the monetization on that

00:28:36 will finally start to happen.

00:28:38 It just takes a little bit of time.

00:28:40 Thank you, Kunal.

00:28:41 Great chatting with you and getting some perspective

00:28:43 on what this approval of fundraise really means.

00:28:46 Of course, the first leg is to get in that fundraise.

00:28:49 And then, of course, what it could mean for Vodafone,

00:28:51 what it could mean for Indus Tower, smaller in nature,

00:28:53 but definitely worth the mention, and the industry

00:28:56 as a whole.

00:28:57 We'll take a break.

00:28:57 Implied Nifty is indicating to a flat to slightly higher start.

00:29:01 Agam, as always, will join in at 8.30

00:29:03 to, of course, decode the F&O markets for us.

00:29:05 So stay tuned.

00:29:06 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:09 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:13 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:16 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:37 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:40 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:29:50 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:30:02 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:30:06 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:30:29 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:30:32 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:30:53 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:30:56 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:31:16 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:31:19 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:31:42 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:31:46 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:32:11 Welcome back.

00:32:12 Quick look at the implied open before we

00:32:13 get to the F&O piece of it.

00:32:15 We've had a sort of quietish kind of week,

00:32:18 very consolidated, very range-bound.

00:32:20 You're seeming set for another day like that.

00:32:22 A market in hunt for fresh triggers

00:32:25 as mildly positive, perhaps, at best.

00:32:28 But all the action, perhaps, on the derivative side of things.

00:32:33 Agam, what's expected today?

00:32:34 Right, so we're going to be missing an expiry today

00:32:36 because it's the month end, which

00:32:38 means that the bank Nifty expiry will come through tomorrow.

00:32:41 That said, we have--

00:32:43 while, you know, prima facie, it doesn't look like a lot of

00:32:47 action has been taking place as far as the benchmark score,

00:32:50 a lot more consolidation coming through.

00:32:51 But on an intraday basis, we've seen some pretty sharp moves

00:32:55 for the Nifty, the bank Nifty, as well as, of course,

00:32:57 the fin Nifty.

00:32:58 But I'm going to start off with the key benchmark, which

00:33:01 did, in fact, move up by around 0.3%.

00:33:04 We're starting to see a lot of unwinding coming through,

00:33:07 which is why the February futures, of course,

00:33:09 are seeing a decline in open interest to the tune of nearly

00:33:11 25%.

00:33:12 But the March futures are now starting to pick up.

00:33:14 And there will be a substantial amount

00:33:16 of rollovers coming through over today and tomorrow.

00:33:20 That said, as far as the bank Nifty goes,

00:33:22 that's where we did see, well, flattish moves.

00:33:25 It was a tough expiry, at least as far as the fin Nifty

00:33:28 goes, yesterday.

00:33:29 And based on that, a lot of banking constituents

00:33:32 were in focus.

00:33:33 Today, it will be the same.

00:33:35 But Kotag Maidra Bank, of course,

00:33:36 not helping things out here.

00:33:37 We've seen another dip there.

00:33:39 And that's actually been weighing on the banking index,

00:33:41 too.

00:33:42 We did see an open interest decline of around 2%, 8.5%

00:33:45 in the February futures.

00:33:47 The March futures, of course, we did

00:33:49 see a significant increase there,

00:33:50 as I've been mentioning.

00:33:51 Rollovers are starting to pick up.

00:33:53 How are the things panning out for the options market?

00:33:56 Well, yesterday, the Nifty was flattish.

00:33:58 But considering it hung on to the level of 20 to 100,

00:34:03 in fact, inched towards 20 to 200, well,

00:34:05 naturally, we saw a lot of put writing around 20 to 100,

00:34:11 20 to 200 as well.

00:34:13 On the higher end, we continue to see a little more buildup

00:34:15 around 20 to 500, 20 to 700.

00:34:18 20 to 700, the probability of the Nifty going all the way

00:34:21 till there, it does seem unlikely.

00:34:24 Never say never.

00:34:25 But we're still a good 500 points away from that mark.

00:34:28 And there are no triggers, at least in the horizon

00:34:31 at the moment.

00:34:32 Which also means that for now, the maximum open interest

00:34:36 in distribution for calls stands at around 22,500.

00:34:40 On the lower end, it continues to mark 22,000

00:34:43 as the one which will provide you

00:34:46 with some sort of a base, a support of sorts,

00:34:48 considering there is so much accumulation

00:34:50 of open interest input.

00:34:52 So that's a 500 point range we are playing with today,

00:34:55 going into tomorrow's expiry.

00:34:58 As far as Bank Nifty is concerned,

00:35:01 the mark of 46,500, which has been a little bit of a pivot.

00:35:05 Do remember that we closed slightly

00:35:08 above this mark yesterday.

00:35:10 But on the higher end, 47,000 will provide

00:35:13 a very, very stiff support.

00:35:15 Pardon me, stiff resistance going higher,

00:35:17 considering the kind of accumulation

00:35:19 that we've seen as far as calls are concerned.

00:35:21 So it's a 500 point range for the Nifty,

00:35:24 that is 22,000 to 22,500.

00:35:27 And for the Bank Nifty, at the moment,

00:35:30 we do see a base around 46,000, 46,500.

00:35:34 And on the higher end, keeping an eye on 47,000.

00:35:37 - Well, that's of course the index, Agam,

00:35:39 but it's largely been stock specific

00:35:42 for the last couple of weeks now,

00:35:43 and this week specifically.

00:35:45 Any stocks that are on your radar this morning

00:35:47 which you picked up in terms of F&O activity?

00:35:49 - Yeah, so I've been talking to a handful

00:35:51 of quantitative traders who follow

00:35:53 a cross-sectional momentum.

00:35:55 And there are three stocks, in fact,

00:35:56 which come up on their radar.

00:35:59 And that is largely on account of, well,

00:36:01 the advances that we've seen through.

00:36:03 So Tata Motors is the one which, in fact,

00:36:06 made a life high yesterday.

00:36:08 We saw a good jump in volumes,

00:36:11 in fact, the highest volumes in two weeks

00:36:13 on an intraday basis.

00:36:14 And for now, we're also looking at Tata Motors

00:36:17 making a 900 as a little bit of a base,

00:36:20 a little bit of a support.

00:36:21 So watch out for that.

00:36:22 Let's take a look at what's happening

00:36:24 in the futures side.

00:36:25 Naturally, the February futures will see

00:36:26 a significant amount of unwinding coming through.

00:36:29 But the March futures will be interesting to watch

00:36:31 whether or not there are, in fact,

00:36:33 new long positions being built there.

00:36:35 Remember, when a stock actually hits a new high,

00:36:39 you know, it would perhaps be not the best

00:36:43 to go ahead and sell it,

00:36:45 because it is on the rising tide.

00:36:47 So this is as far as your March futures are concerned.

00:36:49 And we've seen a whopping 70% increase in OI there.

00:36:53 But this is, of course, as we move into the next expiry.

00:36:56 The other stock that I wanted to talk about was Sun Pharma.

00:36:59 Now, the entire pharmaceutical space

00:37:02 has been climbing quietly, gradually higher

00:37:04 over the course of the last two, two and a half months.

00:37:07 Sun Pharma is no different.

00:37:09 And this time around, it has hit a life high.

00:37:11 Yesterday, it was up around 1.7%.

00:37:13 Cash volumes, again, highest in one week.

00:37:16 And at the moment, we are looking at 1500

00:37:19 for Sun Pharma as a little bit of a base.

00:37:21 So keep an eye on that one as well.

00:37:22 These are the two nifty counters,

00:37:24 which have seen significant gains

00:37:25 and in fact, close at life highs yesterday.

00:37:28 And again, as far as your March futures go,

00:37:30 we are looking at an increase of open interest.

00:37:33 You know, your absolute number is not very large,

00:37:36 but that's also because we're only starting

00:37:38 to see a build up and a lot of those rollovers

00:37:40 coming through for, well, in the case of Tata Motors

00:37:44 as well as Sun Pharma.

00:37:45 And the other stock that I wanna talk about,

00:37:48 which is not a part of the nifty,

00:37:49 but which has also made a life high,

00:37:52 and that is JK Cement.

00:37:53 JK Cement has also moved up gradually higher.

00:37:56 And again, this is where cash volumes

00:37:58 are the highest in one month on an intraday basis.

00:38:01 And in fact, it's taken out a four week high yesterday.

00:38:05 So, which means it's broken out of a range of sorts.

00:38:09 And based on that, we are seeing not only

00:38:11 a significant amount of volume extraction in cash,

00:38:14 but in futures as well.

00:38:16 And as you can see, we are seeing about

00:38:18 a substantial increase in the March futures.

00:38:22 So, these are the stocks that should be on your radar

00:38:25 if you are looking at the F&O segment.

00:38:28 - Okay, thanks a lot for that, Agam.

00:38:31 Some interesting names out there.

00:38:33 Sun Pharma and the Generic Pharma stocks

00:38:35 have done really well.

00:38:36 And JK Cement, I reckon courtesy the Motilal Aswal note

00:38:39 as well yesterday, was up and about.

00:38:41 But quite clearly, the F&O build up

00:38:43 that we've seen in that stock

00:38:45 has been very, very interesting.

00:38:46 So, do watch out for that.

00:38:48 Do watch out for some of the other cement names.

00:38:49 Not a bad move for the likes of Ambuja

00:38:52 and the others as well.

00:38:53 So, could be an interesting one.

00:38:55 Well, what about stocks to watch in the session today?

00:38:58 I think first, we've spoken about a clutch of stocks

00:39:01 on the trade set up as well.

00:39:03 But Mahima joins in with a list of some of the key stocks

00:39:06 that are standing out for her.

00:39:07 Morning, Mahima.

00:39:08 - Morning, Neeraj.

00:39:09 So, as you rightly mentioned,

00:39:10 the first one is Indostar Capital Finance,

00:39:12 which is set to raise 450 crores

00:39:14 via preferential allotment of warrants

00:39:16 to Brookfield AMC and Foreign Tree TechServe.

00:39:19 Now, Brookfield will invest approximately 256 crores

00:39:22 and Foreign Tree will invest approximately 200 crores.

00:39:25 Brookfield will subscribe 1.4 crore warrants

00:39:28 and Foreign Tree will subscribe

00:39:31 approximately 1.1 crore warrants.

00:39:33 And both of these will be subscribed at 184 per share.

00:39:36 Now, moving on to GE and TD India,

00:39:39 it has won an order of 370 crores

00:39:42 from Power Grid Corporation.

00:39:44 And the order is for supply of 765 kV shunt reactors

00:39:48 for transmission of system projects.

00:39:50 Then we have Salsa Technology,

00:39:52 which gets an order of 200 crore

00:39:54 from Zetwork Business Private Limited.

00:39:55 And the order is for supply of 25,000 metric ton

00:39:58 of solar structures.

00:40:00 Moving on, Torrent Power will be in focus today

00:40:03 because it has received an LOI

00:40:05 for transmission system of evacuation of power

00:40:07 from RE projects.

00:40:09 Now, this project is for 1500 megawatt

00:40:11 in Solapur, Maharashtra.

00:40:14 And this order is received,

00:40:16 this letter of intent is received from PFC Consulting.

00:40:20 And this will be a tariff,

00:40:22 this is received on the basis of tariff-based

00:40:25 competitive bidding.

00:40:25 And the contract is for 35 years.

00:40:28 And it is scheduled commission date is from 24 months

00:40:31 from the SPV acquisition.

00:40:33 And the annual transmission charges

00:40:34 are approximately rupees 500 million.

00:40:37 So these are some of the key stocks

00:40:38 to watch out for in trade today.

00:40:41 - Right, thanks for that, Mahima.

00:40:42 There's a whole bunch of stocks

00:40:43 that we'll be tracking today's day of trade.

00:40:46 Anilash Gorashankar, Director of Research

00:40:48 at ProfitMart Securities and Chandan Taparia

00:40:52 both joining.

00:40:53 Chandan, good morning.

00:40:53 Thanks for joining us.

00:40:55 Chandan, before I start talking stocks,

00:40:57 a quick word on the Nifty and Bank Nifty.

00:40:59 Where are you eyeing tomorrow's expiry?

00:41:01 - Good morning.

00:41:03 Thanks for having me.

00:41:04 We have witnessed some sort of positive

00:41:07 to range bond bias in the market in the entire month.

00:41:11 If you look at the month on month basis,

00:41:13 index is up by around 2%.

00:41:15 If you look at the expiry on expiry basis,

00:41:16 then index is up by around 4%.

00:41:19 So we've witnessed some recovery,

00:41:20 but yes, some sort of consolidating move

00:41:23 was clearly visible in the market.

00:41:24 If I look at the volume weightage average

00:41:26 of the entire month, that is near 21,900 zone.

00:41:30 We are slightly higher than the VWIP,

00:41:32 which clearly indicates the declines could be both.

00:41:34 Overall, we are consolidating in between 21,875

00:41:37 to 22,300 zone.

00:41:41 We believe that supports are intact

00:41:43 and with support of 22,000 slow in a study,

00:41:45 we can hit towards 22,350, 22,400 zone.

00:41:49 So we'll look at buy on decline.

00:41:51 Have potential to again revisit the new lifetime iterative,

00:41:54 but we'll need to apply buy on decline

00:41:55 instance in the Nifty index.

00:41:57 Now looking at the Bank Nifty index,

00:41:59 Bank Nifty holding near is 50 day exponential moving average.

00:42:02 It's up by around 4% on expiry on expiry basis,

00:42:05 up by around 1% on month on month basis.

00:42:08 So as of now, the 46,300 is the major support.

00:42:10 We are slightly higher than volume weightage average.

00:42:13 So with support of 46,300,

00:42:15 Bank Nifty has potential to bounce towards 47,000 months.

00:42:18 - Right, that's the view coming on the index,

00:42:22 but we've also got Avinash.

00:42:24 Avinash, we'll jump straight into stocks

00:42:27 because fundamentally I think the markets

00:42:28 are also no man's land, earnings are behind us.

00:42:31 I think the next big trigger is only gonna be,

00:42:33 of course, the political picture and global cues if that.

00:42:37 Talk to me about what you made of Vodafone Ideas

00:42:41 board approving the fundraising plan.

00:42:43 It's a difficult space they are in.

00:42:45 Operationally, of course, things are tight,

00:42:48 cashflow is tight,

00:42:49 and they are also behind the curve in terms of 5G.

00:42:53 Do you think this fundraise brings with it

00:42:55 some relief for Vodafone Idea investors?

00:42:58 - Good morning.

00:43:00 Yeah, I think my sense is that Vodafone India,

00:43:03 this fundraising exercise was expected from a very long time

00:43:06 and I think sooner the later,

00:43:08 but I think it has now rectified into something meaningful.

00:43:11 But I think if you look at the market share loss of Vodafone,

00:43:14 they've lost almost 100 to 150 basis points of market share

00:43:18 to competitors like Jio and Bharti.

00:43:21 And most importantly, going forward in FY26,

00:43:25 again, spectrum charges are going to come up.

00:43:27 I think looking at their weak cash flows,

00:43:29 this amount which they are mentioning about the fundraising,

00:43:33 20,000 via equity and some amount of debt raising

00:43:36 is unlikely to actually give a full kind of benefit

00:43:40 to the company's capital structure.

00:43:42 So I would suggest that the stock has significantly risen

00:43:45 in the last one month.

00:43:47 This news has already been partly been discounted

00:43:50 in the price.

00:43:50 So I don't think this news prima facie

00:43:52 is going to re-rate the stock further.

00:43:54 We'll have to see what is the kind of commitment

00:43:56 from the promoters,

00:43:57 because promoters had always been dilly-dally

00:44:00 in committing their own money into the company.

00:44:02 So if the promoters are quite confident

00:44:05 and they allocate a larger part of the money in the company,

00:44:08 that would install a lot of confidence

00:44:09 in the Vodafone stock.

00:44:11 So I think it's better to wait and watch

00:44:13 considering the fact that the stock has risen considerably.

00:44:16 And the next couple of quarters

00:44:17 are going to be very challenging.

00:44:18 So I wouldn't suggest buying at these levels,

00:44:21 but yes, those who have entered the stock

00:44:23 can obviously wait for some more time

00:44:24 as after a long time, some positive tailwinds

00:44:27 on the fundraising has been announced yesterday.

00:44:29 - So the figure doing the rounds for the last several months

00:44:35 and what the promoters could put in

00:44:36 is just about 2000 crore rupees.

00:44:38 Will that come in?

00:44:40 Will it be higher?

00:44:41 All remains to be seen.

00:44:42 Interestingly, Nuwama now has a target price

00:44:44 of six and a half rupees.

00:44:46 Chandan, of course your take on Vodafone,

00:44:49 but also your picks for this morning.

00:44:51 - Yeah, so to start with the idea of Vodafone,

00:44:55 major trend was in tech to positive,

00:44:58 but yes, this stock has multiple supply it has.

00:45:01 So I believe that let it find some support near 14.

00:45:04 It manages to hold 14 in this decline,

00:45:07 then again, it has potential to swing to us 18 to 20 marks.

00:45:11 So we have to look at weight and watch mode on counter.

00:45:14 Now looking at the stock wise,

00:45:15 first it is buy on Tata Motors.

00:45:17 We have positive stance in most of the nifty auto companies,

00:45:21 including Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra.

00:45:23 Tata Motors has given a consolidation breakout

00:45:25 of last 15, 16 days.

00:45:27 It managed to hold above a key hurdle of 940.

00:45:30 The stock is inching upwards and we are heading towards

00:45:34 expiry so some short covering trigger can happen.

00:45:37 So one can buy with support of 940.

00:45:39 We have target to us 1000 in Tata Motors.

00:45:42 Second trading area one can focus on Voltas.

00:45:44 As per the seasonality, Voltas usually performs well

00:45:48 in the month of March, as per the data of last 10 years.

00:45:53 So chart setup is positive, major trend is in tech.

00:45:56 Slow and steady supports are shifting higher.

00:45:58 It is holding well with built up of long position.

00:46:01 Rollers are turning on the long side.

00:46:03 So recommending to buy on Voltas

00:46:05 with support of 1095.

00:46:08 We are expecting really to us 1160 to 1118 Voltas.

00:46:11 So Tata Motors, Voltas, these two will be preferred

00:46:14 to pick for the morning trade setup.

00:46:16 - Okay, Tata Motors and Voltas is on top of Chandan's list.

00:46:22 And of course, Vodafone idea is a wait and watch situation

00:46:25 depending on how it seems.

00:46:26 Perhaps some initial tailwind because at least news

00:46:29 that was expected for a while has come in.

00:46:32 It's gone up about 7% in the last month.

00:46:34 But the other stock which is in focus is Vedanta.

00:46:39 They had an analyst call yesterday

00:46:41 and then a slew of brokerage notes this morning

00:46:43 where the management has come in and talked about

00:46:46 their plans to pair debt, what their sort of demerger

00:46:51 will do in terms of unlocking value.

00:46:53 Anushi, what's the verdict in terms of what house views are?

00:46:57 - Right, Tamanna.

00:46:58 So if you had to look at what are the comments after this,

00:47:00 sort of a mixed view over here.

00:47:02 Now, Nuvama and Antic has come out with a buy rating

00:47:06 while Kotak has a sell rating on that.

00:47:10 But before we go on that, let's just point out

00:47:12 some key highlights that they have mentioned.

00:47:14 So the focus continues to remain on debt reduction

00:47:17 with the management guiding for a debt reduction

00:47:20 of about $3 billion over the course of next three years.

00:47:23 Then also there is the major focus remains

00:47:26 on value unlocking on the back of the demerger

00:47:29 and listing of its business verticals separately.

00:47:32 The key focus over here, the key growth driver

00:47:35 continues to be the aluminum business over here.

00:47:37 Now, if you had to look at the positive stance

00:47:39 of both Nuvama and Antic, so they have highlighted out

00:47:43 that the monetization of steel and iron assets

00:47:47 by the first quarter of 2025 remains as a positive watch out.

00:47:52 Whereas even the EBITDA growth of about 40%

00:47:54 that they are expecting remains on a positive side.

00:47:58 Also, there is a beneficial of about most of these CAPEX

00:48:02 projects that had been going on over the course

00:48:06 now start to show the benefits from Q4Q

00:48:10 to the second half of H2O25 onwards.

00:48:13 Now, while Kotak has a different view,

00:48:16 where they are stating that the EBITDA guidance

00:48:18 that the company has given of about $6 billion

00:48:21 is too optimistic, whereas they see about EBITDA guidance

00:48:24 of about $4.2 billion.

00:48:26 Key downside risk also remains on the merger

00:48:29 of its parent, copper business at an expensive valuation.

00:48:33 So that is another trigger that could be watched out for.

00:48:37 But the main focus, as mentioned,

00:48:38 is remains on the value unlocking of all the demerged

00:48:43 verticals.

00:48:43 So that is all the stance on Vedanta.

00:48:47 OK.

00:48:48 Thanks a lot for that.

00:48:50 Anushi, Avinash, you would have seen some takeaways

00:48:53 of this analyst meet as well.

00:48:55 And the reports thereof.

00:48:57 Are you at all inclined towards Vedanta,

00:49:01 or any other metal name for that matter?

00:49:04 I think, Neeraj, my sense is that Vedanta, which

00:49:08 has announced a five-year split, I think clearly it

00:49:12 would be better that I think the investors should wait

00:49:14 for some more clarity to come in.

00:49:15 I think the key element for Vedanta

00:49:18 is obviously how they manage the debt on the books,

00:49:21 because that is one issue which the market is extremely

00:49:23 worried about.

00:49:25 I would not be surprised, however,

00:49:26 that the kind of bashing the stock has got.

00:49:29 Downside from these levels seem to be capped.

00:49:31 So I think a large part of the negative headwinds

00:49:35 has been factored into the price.

00:49:37 So my sense is somebody who wants

00:49:38 to take a small trading bet, a short-term kind of near-term

00:49:43 scenario, could obviously look at it.

00:49:44 But longer term, I think opportunities

00:49:47 could arise once the final restructuring is over,

00:49:49 because we really don't know how the markets would

00:49:52 look at each of these companies.

00:49:54 Typically, I think we have been telling our clients to hold on.

00:49:57 Near-term, I think there could be a bounce quite sharply.

00:50:01 But over the medium to longer term, each of these companies

00:50:04 will be now a unique set of businesses.

00:50:06 So we'll take a small wait and watch here.

00:50:08 But I think you mentioned about what looks interesting.

00:50:11 I think one or two companies which we met recently,

00:50:14 I think companies which are in the auto components space,

00:50:17 something like a Micra CIE, a Steel Strip, and Wheels,

00:50:21 these are interesting bets, because a lot of CapEx

00:50:24 is happening here.

00:50:25 And I think the management commentary has also

00:50:27 been extremely solid.

00:50:29 CIE Automotive is very large, not only in the Indian market,

00:50:32 but even the European markets.

00:50:33 Although the European markets are slightly muted as of now,

00:50:36 the management has sounded very confident

00:50:38 that the Indian market is going to grow significantly,

00:50:40 and that should benefit them.

00:50:42 Steel Strip Wheels is now looking

00:50:44 at increasing its wheel capacity, that

00:50:45 is alloy wheel capacity, totally from 3 million

00:50:49 to roughly 4.8 million numbers.

00:50:51 So I think this is a very interesting space.

00:50:53 Not many players here.

00:50:54 We have got larger players like Wheels India here.

00:50:56 So I think this could be also an interesting bet

00:50:58 in the current scenario, considering

00:51:00 the kind of buoyancy we are seeing

00:51:01 in the commercial vehicle, in the passenger car sector,

00:51:04 and where I think demand is not a problem.

00:51:06 So I think volume growth would be assured for Steel Strip

00:51:08 and Wheels at least over the next 12, 18 years.

00:51:11 Chandan, do you have a view on Vedanta?

00:51:14 It's pretty much done nothing in the recent past.

00:51:18 And maybe we can extend that conversation, not just Vedanta,

00:51:21 the rest of the metal pack.

00:51:22 Is there any trade here?

00:51:23 Potentially on the short side also, if you think so.

00:51:27 Yes, so I'm observing the mix set of cues

00:51:29 in most of the metal name.

00:51:31 In fact, the sustainable move is not there,

00:51:33 or absence of follow-up is clearly

00:51:35 visible in most of the name.

00:51:37 So first, let me talk about Vedanta.

00:51:39 The stock is slightly making lower top, lower bottom.

00:51:42 The good part is the breakdown is not there.

00:51:44 Sustained selling is not there.

00:51:46 But yes, bouts are being sold.

00:51:47 So as of now, I'll avoid for going low.

00:51:50 Let the stock come near 250, 250.

00:51:53 I think that will be the stable zone

00:51:55 to find some bargain buying in the counter.

00:51:58 If I need to talk about other names,

00:51:59 then Hindalco I have the negative view.

00:52:02 We have seen built up of short position.

00:52:04 Just a couple of days back, we have seen sharp selling from 600

00:52:07 to 500 odd levels.

00:52:09 And after that, it witnessed some recovery,

00:52:11 and then again selling came.

00:52:13 So some put writing is there at 500,

00:52:15 but again, there are chances that with hurdle of 518,

00:52:18 it has potential to drip down to 500 marks.

00:52:21 So slightly negative bias in most of the meta.

00:52:25 Jindal Steel could be one name where some sort of buying

00:52:29 interest could emerge.

00:52:30 765 is support for upside move to a 792.

00:52:35 So Hindalco negative, Vedanta some profit booking decay,

00:52:38 and Jindal Steel could be some recovery in the counter.

00:52:42 You know, another space that I think we should look at,

00:52:45 which has seen a lot of ups and downs

00:52:48 before we go to some of the bulk and block deals that

00:52:51 are in focus, is your OMCs.

00:52:53 Now to add to that entire debate,

00:52:56 and Obama note also out, which has downgraded BPCL, HPCL, IOC,

00:53:01 all of them.

00:53:03 And there is definitely a bull and bear case

00:53:07 over here on whether OMCs have more to give.

00:53:10 I want to get Avinash's view first on this pack,

00:53:13 and if there's anything that you would pick up at this level.

00:53:17 I think oil marketing companies have done remarkably well

00:53:20 in the last couple of months.

00:53:22 And I think the markets have obviously

00:53:24 factored in the benign crude oil prices.

00:53:26 But I think you must understand that as now elections are

00:53:29 nearing, clearly the markets are also

00:53:32 sensing the fact that there could be some price

00:53:34 cuts on petrol or diesel.

00:53:36 And I think that could be a kind of a short term

00:53:38 break for these companies.

00:53:40 My sense is within the given pack,

00:53:42 I will be more comfortable on a company like IOC.

00:53:45 I think the evaluations still consider

00:53:47 look pretty interesting.

00:53:48 But again, one should always keep that caveat

00:53:51 that in case there is a price cut of, say,

00:53:53 4 to 5 rupees for diesel or petrol, which

00:53:56 is very much likely, then I think in the very near term,

00:53:59 these companies could possibly obviously not

00:54:02 go that significantly on the upside,

00:54:05 at least in the very near term.

00:54:06 But I think overall, if you look at the automobile sector,

00:54:09 the aviation sector, I think throughput

00:54:10 from both these sectors has been very significant.

00:54:13 And it has benefited these companies quite significantly.

00:54:15 So prima facie, these companies look interesting.

00:54:18 But in the near term, if these headwinds come in,

00:54:20 probably once the election dates are finally announced,

00:54:23 I would not be surprised that there could be

00:54:25 a little break on the upside here.

00:54:27 But longer term, yes, I think if crude remains benign

00:54:29 at the current odd levels, the risk reward

00:54:31 is definitely better in oil marketing companies

00:54:33 rather than upstream companies.

00:54:36 I think rather than upstream, Chandan,

00:54:38 anything of any of these that you like on the charts?

00:54:41 So in the recent past, we have noticed good recovery

00:54:45 and momentum in most of the oil marketing company.

00:54:48 If you look at the last almost five months,

00:54:51 Hint Petro has really dwelled from 250 to almost all the way

00:54:55 to 600 zone.

00:54:56 So now some profit booking could be there.

00:54:58 Major trend, isn't it?

00:54:59 But some profit booking cannot be ruled out,

00:55:00 because after the decent run up of more than 50%,

00:55:05 I think some profit booking could play.

00:55:08 So I'm just waiting near 500, 490 zone in Hint Petro

00:55:12 to again rebuild the long positions.

00:55:14 So don't have negative view, but expecting some profit booking

00:55:17 decline, because most of these stocks

00:55:19 have already seen good momentum in the recent past.

00:55:21 Very quickly, Chandan, some of these defense names

00:55:24 were doing quite well in trade yesterday.

00:55:26 I mean, to name a couple, BDL and HAL.

00:55:28 On the charts, how are these counters looking?

00:55:33 Quite positive on entire CPSC and defense name.

00:55:36 HAL is our preferred name, HAL and BR.

00:55:39 So first talking about Hindustan Aeronautics HAL.

00:55:42 Our stock is all set to give a major consolidation

00:55:44 breakout of last almost eight, nine weeks.

00:55:47 Earlier, multiple time it took hurdle near 3,100 zone.

00:55:50 So a small follow up over 3,100 could open the further upside

00:55:54 of 5% to 8%.

00:55:56 So we will suggest to buy on HAL with support of 3,000,

00:55:59 expecting the rally to extend to us 30 to 50.

00:56:03 If I talk about BDL, Bharat Dynamics,

00:56:05 here trend is also positive.

00:56:07 We have seen good recovery from 15.50

00:56:09 to all the way to 19.84 marks.

00:56:11 We witnessed some profit booking from higher levels,

00:56:13 but again, buy on decline could continue.

00:56:15 We have major support at 18.20.

00:56:18 With the support of 18.20, we can place the target

00:56:20 to us 2,000 in BDL.

00:56:22 We are also positive on the BL, Bharat Electronics.

00:56:26 So positive view with support of 200.

00:56:28 It can head to us to one, two kind of level.

00:56:31 So positive stance in most of the defense name in the market.

00:56:34 - Okay, positive on some of these names.

00:56:37 Some of the bulk deals could be in focus as well this morning.

00:56:41 Varsha Johnson with the few stocks on which

00:56:44 the bulk and block data is interesting.

00:56:45 Varsha.

00:56:46 - So starting with CMS InfoSystem,

00:56:48 wherein Scion Investment Holdings sold

00:56:50 almost their entire stake,

00:56:52 which constitute 27% at 370 apiece.

00:56:56 The buyers were ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund,

00:56:59 which bought almost 3.5%.

00:57:01 Nomura Funds, which bought almost 2.7%.

00:57:04 And Kotex Small Cap Fund.

00:57:06 Then we have ICICI Lombard General Insurance,

00:57:08 wherein Bharti Enterprises sold almost 1.2% of the stake.

00:57:12 As in December 2023, their stake was 3.7%.

00:57:17 While the stake was bought by ICICI Bank.

00:57:20 So as in December 23, if you see,

00:57:22 ICICI Bank held almost 47% stake in the company.

00:57:26 Now ICICI Bank said in its board,

00:57:29 that its board has approved an increase in shareholding

00:57:31 in the general insurance company

00:57:33 by up to 4% in multiple transfers.

00:57:36 Then lastly, we have Sapphire Food,

00:57:37 wherein Wellington Trust sold almost 0.5% stake

00:57:41 in the company.

00:57:42 As on December 23, their stake was 1.9%.

00:57:47 - Okay, Varsha, thanks a lot for those.

00:57:50 By the way, an important one is also BLS International,

00:57:54 simply because as we said in the trade setup,

00:57:56 the buyer in BLS International is an interesting name.

00:58:01 Aditya Kumar Halwasia is the entity.

00:58:03 His entity is bought into BLS,

00:58:05 so that stock also remains in focus.

00:58:07 We need to slip into a break though.

00:58:10 As we hit the break, here are the very important voice.

00:58:13 According to John Chambers,

00:58:15 India will surpass both the US and China

00:58:17 in the next half a century.

00:58:19 Remember, he spoke to Tamannah,

00:58:21 my colleague on NDTV Profit exclusively.

00:58:24 Here's a small slice of that conversation.

00:58:27 - India's population is gonna have

00:58:29 the fastest economic growth,

00:58:30 not just for the next five years,

00:58:32 but with the plans and programs

00:58:33 your prime minister is putting in place now

00:58:35 for the next 20 to 30 years.

00:58:38 Assuming that you have the courage to continue to take risks

00:58:41 and be critical of yourself on it.

00:58:43 You look at the population growth,

00:58:44 average age 26 or younger,

00:58:46 average age in China aging rapidly

00:58:48 in terms of the direction.

00:58:50 China's population going from about 1.4 billion

00:58:54 to 800 million with a much older population.

00:58:57 India's going from 1.4 billion to 2 billion.

00:59:00 The ability to do the education with the speed,

00:59:03 the optimism, the entrepreneurship.

00:59:05 China's issues are health self-inflicted.

00:59:08 They got away from reasonably free enterprise.

00:59:11 They got away from startups.

00:59:12 The government started to get involved

00:59:14 in almost everything, put regulations in place,

00:59:17 put a win-lose mentality versus the US

00:59:19 and much of the rest of the world.

00:59:20 Doesn't surprise me, they slowed down.

00:59:22 (upbeat music)

00:59:25 (upbeat music)

00:59:36 (upbeat music)

00:59:38 (upbeat music)

00:59:41 (upbeat music)

00:59:43 (upbeat music)

00:59:46 (upbeat music)

00:59:49 (upbeat music)

00:59:51 (upbeat music)

00:59:54 (upbeat music)

00:59:56 (upbeat music)

00:59:59 (upbeat music)

01:00:10 (upbeat music)

01:00:24 (upbeat music)

01:00:27 (upbeat music)

01:00:52 (upbeat music)

01:00:55 (upbeat music)

01:01:00 - Back, we're gearing up for trade this morning.

01:01:05 It's gonna be a flat start,

01:01:06 but the stock of the day will be Vodafone

01:01:08 and that's one that's gonna be on everyone's radar

01:01:11 as we geared up this morning.

01:01:13 Implied nifty indicating to 15 point gap up.

01:01:15 So it's gonna be flat and fairly quiet on the street.

01:01:19 But Avinash, a quick one.

01:01:21 I don't know if you've been tracking

01:01:24 the Bharat Highway Investment,

01:01:26 which is the Invit that opens today.

01:01:28 Would you be recommending that?

01:01:29 It's an interesting proposition

01:01:31 given the story and the cusp of growth that India stands at.

01:01:34 - I think my guess is it's an interesting asset class.

01:01:39 And if you're looking at the next, say,

01:01:40 two to three years kind of time horizon,

01:01:43 definitely I think some allocation

01:01:45 is something which is advisable.

01:01:47 My sense is that it may not give you

01:01:49 some sort of a very large alpha kind of return,

01:01:52 but yes, it's a steady kind of instrument

01:01:54 which offers a good investment bet.

01:01:57 But this is typically for those investors

01:01:59 who want to look at safety of capital at the same time

01:02:03 and show steady returns.

01:02:04 And I think the space is pretty interesting.

01:02:06 I'm not surprised that once the new government comes in,

01:02:09 infrastructure, especially the road network

01:02:11 is going to be given a further boost.

01:02:13 So I think that is definitely something

01:02:15 which is going to benefit Invits

01:02:16 which operate in this space.

01:02:18 - The past returns are some of the other ones,

01:02:20 like the IRB Invit, PowerGrid Invit,

01:02:22 and Indigrid Invit have been, what,

01:02:24 12 to 12 and a half percent of dividend yield annually.

01:02:27 So it's an opportunity you might want to consider it

01:02:30 if you want to add some to your portfolio.

01:02:32 Chandan, we've talked about a bunch of stocks already,

01:02:35 but anything else that's catching your attention

01:02:37 this morning that you would probably look at

01:02:39 for an intraday play or maybe up until tomorrow?

01:02:43 - So already we talked about Tata Motors, Voltas.

01:02:47 We can focus on HL.

01:02:48 You asked about this defense name.

01:02:51 So HL will be our preferred name.

01:02:53 We are expecting a rally to us 30 to 50.

01:02:55 So Tata Motors, Voltas, HL,

01:02:57 these are the couple of names we should keep on radar.

01:03:00 I can talk about M&M, Mahindra and Mahindra.

01:03:02 So in auto space, we like Tata Motors.

01:03:04 And apart from that, Mahindra and Mahindra looks good.

01:03:07 Three, four days back,

01:03:08 it witnessed some consultative move.

01:03:10 Technically, it gave a breakout

01:03:12 from its pull and flick pattern.

01:03:13 After that, it is now continuously

01:03:15 making higher tops than Vodafone.

01:03:16 So with support of 1900,

01:03:18 we are expecting momentum to continue to us

01:03:20 2013 Mahindra and Mahindra.

01:03:22 So one can focus on Tata Motors, Mahindra

01:03:25 and a few other names in the market.

01:03:28 - Just a quick look at what Vodafone is doing pre-open.

01:03:31 Even as, of course, we'll wait for those rates to settle.

01:03:34 Some of the big stocks in focus today,

01:03:36 Vodafone will be one of them after that fund raise down

01:03:39 about nearly 10% in opening trade.

01:03:42 Of course, all of those will settle.

01:03:45 Curious to know what Bharti Airtel

01:03:46 is also doing this morning as is Indus.

01:03:48 As the news of that fund raise gets digested

01:03:52 and we see the impact.

01:03:54 So Bharti Airtel positive as of this point,

01:03:58 maybe some skepticism there about

01:04:00 whether Vodafone's fund raise will make any dent

01:04:03 to Bharti Airtel at all.

01:04:05 Indus up in the hopes of some sort of,

01:04:10 getting some of its dues from Vodafone back.

01:04:13 So those are some in focus.

01:04:15 Patanjali Foods is something that I wanna pull up as well.

01:04:17 We talked about it.

01:04:18 The wrap on the knuckles was for Patanjali Ayurveda,

01:04:21 but the stock is reacting, at least initially,

01:04:23 it's reacting a little negatively.

01:04:26 Avinash, I want to get your sense on banks

01:04:29 and especially your private banks

01:04:31 that haven't really been participating in this rally.

01:04:34 Do you think there will be some time for that

01:04:36 as we wait for more queues to come in,

01:04:39 especially from the RBI?

01:04:40 - Yeah, I think some more consolidation could happen,

01:04:45 Tamanna, on the private sector banks.

01:04:46 I think we've been seeing a lot of traction

01:04:48 on the PSU banks,

01:04:50 but I think banks like ICICI Bank,

01:04:52 typically SDFC Bank,

01:04:54 banks like IndusInd Bank,

01:04:56 numbers for the third quarter have been pretty solid.

01:04:59 Commentaries have been good.

01:05:00 I think the key challenge across all the banks

01:05:02 has been deposit growth.

01:05:04 I think that is one key challenge for most of the banks.

01:05:07 And I think I would not be surprised

01:05:09 that the kind of CASA deposits

01:05:11 which these banks have got

01:05:13 would definitely help these banks

01:05:15 in retaining most of them

01:05:16 and ensuring that they get a decent kind of

01:05:20 competitive kind of pricing for the deposits.

01:05:22 But it's going to be a pretty challenging kind of environment

01:05:25 at least for the next six to eight months

01:05:27 because money is getting more and more difficult

01:05:31 to get in for these banks.

01:05:32 So I think re-rating would actually happen

01:05:34 post the first quarter of FY25.

01:05:37 So till that time,

01:05:37 I think stocks like ICICI Bank,

01:05:39 which has shown very strong numbers,

01:05:42 may still continue to remain a market performer.

01:05:44 But I think at these levels,

01:05:45 there's nothing to lose,

01:05:46 provided your timeframe is at least next 12 to 15 months.

01:05:50 Our sense is that whatever new initiatives

01:05:52 the government announces post the election

01:05:54 and the new government comes in,

01:05:56 infrastructure would be a key element.

01:05:58 And I think to finance infrastructure,

01:06:00 I think banks are going to play a key role.

01:06:02 So I think ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank,

01:06:04 or even SDFC Bank at these levels,

01:06:06 definitely look interesting,

01:06:07 but I think the timeframe has to be slightly longer.

01:06:10 - Okay.

01:06:12 Now, the pre-open rates will settle in a bit.

01:06:15 One of the pockets that did reasonably okay

01:06:18 in trade yesterday were select brokerages.

01:06:19 Now, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

01:06:23 as a stock was up and about in trade yesterday.

01:06:25 We spoke about the price volume bursas.

01:06:27 This one was up about 5% in trade yesterday,

01:06:30 marginally higher in trade today as well.

01:06:32 I was just looking at some of the numbers

01:06:33 that the stock has clocked in

01:06:34 or the businesses clocked in.

01:06:37 Of course, it doesn't trade too expensive as well.

01:06:39 I think 12, 13 times, if I'm not wrong,

01:06:41 trading 12 months P.

01:06:43 But what it has done in the first nine months

01:06:44 of this calendar, or this financially,

01:06:46 is pretty remarkable to the previous year.

01:06:48 So nine-month FY24 revenue is 14% higher

01:06:52 than the full-year FY23 revenue.

01:06:54 Nine-month FY24 PAT is 84% higher

01:06:59 than the full-year PAT of FY23.

01:07:02 And you could argue that some of these statistics

01:07:05 hold true for some of the other broking names as well.

01:07:07 And which is why, in some sense,

01:07:09 some of them have gotten a bit of a leg up as well

01:07:13 in the recent past.

01:07:14 Since I can't ask Chandana Bhatt Motilal,

01:07:16 I'll ask Avinash Bhatt Motilal.

01:07:18 Avinash, Motilal Oswal,

01:07:19 or any other broking stroke capital market play?

01:07:23 - Well, I think you're right, Neeraj,

01:07:26 that numbers for most of the broking companies

01:07:29 like Motilal Oswal, Novoma have been pretty solid.

01:07:31 In fact, we have been very positive on the broking

01:07:35 as well as the wealth management kind of space.

01:07:37 And I think here, as you rightly pointed out,

01:07:40 valuations seem to be quite reasonable.

01:07:41 And I think the kind of growth

01:07:43 we've seen on the capital market side,

01:07:45 and the plus the kind of retail

01:07:47 as well as institutional participation in the markets,

01:07:50 I would not be surprised that the markets

01:07:52 are just looking at maybe another one or two quarters

01:07:55 before growth comes back again.

01:07:56 And I think these profitability numbers

01:07:58 are something which I think the markets

01:08:00 would be looking at very closely

01:08:01 because 84% YY growth for Motilal Oswal.

01:08:05 I think that is one key element

01:08:06 which the markets would be monitoring

01:08:08 whether it's going to be sustainable or not.

01:08:10 But I think despite considering the fact

01:08:12 that even if this growth, you know,

01:08:14 fatters down a bit,

01:08:16 numbers are going to be pretty solid for FY25.

01:08:18 We are also positive on Novoma.

01:08:20 Our sense is that within the wealth management space,

01:08:22 this is one stock which got recently listed

01:08:24 and where the opportunity for growth is quite significant.

01:08:28 It may appear a little bit expensive on the price,

01:08:30 but I think looking at the kind of growth

01:08:32 which they have recorded in the December quarter

01:08:33 and the management commentary,

01:08:35 I would not be surprised

01:08:36 that these are very solid franchises

01:08:38 with a very strong customer base

01:08:40 and a very large AUM with them.

01:08:42 So that is definitely going to work very well for them.

01:08:44 Obviously, you know, post the election,

01:08:46 we are expecting further markets to get further re-rated

01:08:49 and get a sense of more buoyancy.

01:08:51 So all that would obviously rub off

01:08:53 on most of these broking

01:08:54 and, you know, wealth management companies.

01:08:56 - Very, go on now.

01:08:58 - No, sorry, I just, just interested now,

01:09:00 since the pre-open rates are about to settle in,

01:09:01 one of the key suspects of inclusion into Nifty,

01:09:05 Sriram Finance.

01:09:06 I'm just trying to understand

01:09:07 if Sriram Finance has reacted positively today.

01:09:09 Let's just bring that up

01:09:10 and see what that is doing in the session.

01:09:12 No, not really.

01:09:13 It's just about flattened out.

01:09:14 2396, very active in the first couple of minutes of trade.

01:09:17 - I think the other one that's looking really good

01:09:19 this morning is BML, 10% in pre-open.

01:09:22 Chandan, you track this one,

01:09:24 if you get an opening of that range.

01:09:27 - No, it's not flattened out.

01:09:28 Just like Sriram.

01:09:30 BML is also flattened.

01:09:31 - Okay, at least I'm not alone in this one.

01:09:33 - Not at all.

01:09:34 - Chandan, would you short Vodafone Idea

01:09:35 if you get a gap down on the counter?

01:09:37 And at what price would you short it?

01:09:39 - No, no, I won't do, but let the price is stable.

01:09:42 Because overall, I believe some sort of support

01:09:44 will be there.

01:09:45 If you ask me positionally, I'm not much various.

01:09:47 In fact, if I get a dip towards 14 or 13.5,

01:09:51 I'll go positionally long in the counter,

01:09:52 looking at the major wave

01:09:54 and the long-term picture of the chart.

01:09:56 - Look at Patanjali this morning.

01:09:58 Patanjali and Avas Finance.

01:09:59 Avas Finance has a positive brokerage note on it.

01:10:03 That's seeming to do well,

01:10:05 at least in the pre-open session, about 4% up.

01:10:07 Patanjali negative because of the Supreme Court wrap.

01:10:09 Reputational hit more than anything else,

01:10:11 though technically has nothing much to do

01:10:13 with Patanjali foods.

01:10:15 But that sort of wrap on the knuckles

01:10:20 for misleading advertisement has some impact here.

01:10:22 Chandan, any of these that you look at?

01:10:27 - So you, let me talk about Patanjali.

01:10:30 It got stuck in a range.

01:10:32 So follow-up is missing,

01:10:33 but the good part is near the lower band,

01:10:36 it takes support-based buying.

01:10:38 So let it come near 15.25,

01:10:41 then some buying interest could emerge.

01:10:42 Because 1500 to 1680 is the broader range.

01:10:45 So Patanjali could be one name

01:10:46 where buy on decline could continue in this.

01:10:48 - Well, that's some of those counters that are in focus.

01:10:53 Vodafone's not looking too bad, actually.

01:10:54 2% cut is what we're expecting.

01:10:56 Patanjali also looking at a gap down.

01:10:59 Some of these logistic companies

01:11:00 have also been doing quite well.

01:11:01 And delivery in pre-open is indicating

01:11:03 to a gap up of 2.5%.

01:11:05 I think Zee also will be in focus today.

01:11:08 197 may continue to see an upper circuit.

01:11:10 Be interesting to see if that's what's gonna happen.

01:11:13 Chandan, it's after many days

01:11:16 that Paytm is not expected to see a circuit in early trade.

01:11:21 I know there's not too much history to go by,

01:11:23 but if you had to trade this one on the charts,

01:11:27 do you think if we do get a day

01:11:29 when it doesn't hit up a circuit,

01:11:30 it could be a good trade for a short-term trader?

01:11:34 - It's very tough to trade Paytm

01:11:36 because major trend is down

01:11:37 and short-term trend is giving a bounce.

01:11:40 And after that, it locks in circuit to circuit.

01:11:42 So it's advisable not to trade.

01:11:44 But yeah, if someone trades,

01:11:46 then one can look support near 415.

01:11:49 And if bounce happens, it can go to 455 to 460.

01:11:53 - All right, a lot of brokerage notes this morning

01:11:56 and we're already seeing some reaction

01:11:58 to some of those notes in the pre-open trade.

01:12:01 For example, Jeffries on Avas.

01:12:03 While Motilal Oswal has initiated a buy call on Dreamfolks,

01:12:06 Harsh now joins us with more details of the key,

01:12:10 the top brokerage notes

01:12:11 that we've picked for you this morning.

01:12:14 - Well, absolutely, Tamana.

01:12:15 Let me first start off with Avas.

01:12:17 We have Jeffries, which has a buy call

01:12:20 or retains its buy call on Avas.

01:12:22 1,940 rupees is the target price.

01:12:25 They have a solid 30 plus percent upside.

01:12:27 Now, what they're suggesting is loan growth's affected

01:12:31 largely due to certain tech,

01:12:34 or rather the new tech platform coming on stream.

01:12:38 And that will go on stream in the next quarter.

01:12:41 And therefore, loan growth is set to pick up.

01:12:44 They're expecting, or rather they've guided

01:12:46 for a 20 to 25% loan growth.

01:12:48 Jeffries expects that to come in at the top end of the band.

01:12:51 So loan growth will come in quite strong.

01:12:54 The other piece that's been a miss with regard to Avas

01:12:57 has been to manage attrition.

01:13:00 Now, the diversified sourcing channels going forward

01:13:04 should help with that.

01:13:06 They've also improved their incentive structures

01:13:08 as well as their hierarchy structures.

01:13:11 And they have suggested that the branch growth

01:13:15 will also be at 10%.

01:13:17 All of that should therefore arrest some amount of attrition

01:13:20 and therefore aid loan growth going forward.

01:13:23 Productivity metrics also should improve.

01:13:26 They're expecting the turnaround time to fall

01:13:29 from 13 days to nine days on loan sanctions.

01:13:32 That's the other improvement.

01:13:34 With regard to NIM pressure,

01:13:36 well, the management has suggested that lower,

01:13:38 smaller loans, which are slightly higher yielding,

01:13:42 is also what is causing NIM pressure.

01:13:43 So that should get offset.

01:13:45 They've also hiked lending rates,

01:13:47 which should therefore aid NIMs.

01:13:49 OPEX is expected to remain stable

01:13:51 with the tech rollout cost to fade,

01:13:53 employee costs to remain stable.

01:13:56 And therefore, Jeffries expects an EPS gaggle

01:13:59 on this one of 25%.

01:14:01 ROE expansion to happen over FY '24 to '26.

01:14:05 Very strong buy call there by Jeffries.

01:14:08 Switching focus, Motilal on DreamForks.

01:14:11 They've initiated coverage, target price 650,

01:14:14 which is again a 30 plus percent upside.

01:14:16 They believe that firstly,

01:14:18 air travel growth should boost DreamForks

01:14:21 in terms of top line.

01:14:23 They're expecting a 29% revenue gaggle

01:14:25 on the top line of DreamForks all the way through FY '26.

01:14:29 They believe that international expansion

01:14:31 should further aid this number.

01:14:33 And they believe that the asset light model

01:14:35 and stronger growth would drive earnings going forward.

01:14:39 They believe that this one has strong market control,

01:14:42 mind you, sub 70% to above 70% in terms of market share

01:14:47 is what this one has seen, DreamForks has seen.

01:14:50 The margin impact of FY '23 was due to an exceptional item

01:14:54 and therefore they don't expect it to recover,

01:14:55 but that could be a risk.

01:14:57 They're expecting gross margins to be at the top end

01:15:00 of the 11 to 13% band.

01:15:01 And a pad gaggle of 28% over through FY '26.

01:15:06 Got it.

01:15:07 A target price of 650 on this one.

01:15:10 Thanks, Harsh.

01:15:11 Thanks for that.

01:15:11 Two notes, we are a minute and a half away

01:15:13 from market open, but this remains interesting.

01:15:16 Chandan, DreamForks, I know Motilal has initiated a note,

01:15:19 but independent of that note,

01:15:21 have you looked at the charts on this one?

01:15:23 Yeah, so we came up with the note

01:15:25 and it looks good in terms of risk reward ratio.

01:15:28 It has been consolidating from last couple of months

01:15:30 and now turning from the key support zone.

01:15:33 Even the mechanical indicators are turning

01:15:34 from oversold territory,

01:15:36 which also attract the buying interest.

01:15:38 So technically speaking, 475, 480 is the support.

01:15:42 It can head to us 540 to 550 zone.

01:15:44 Chandan, so that's the view on DreamForks,

01:15:48 but if I had to ask you for one top recommendation,

01:15:51 pre-open rates have settled.

01:15:52 One stock that you would trade, quick 20 seconds.

01:15:55 We are very close to market open.

01:15:56 I'll go with Tata Motors.

01:15:57 With support of 940, I'm expecting thousand rupees.

01:16:00 Tata Motors support at 940.

01:16:05 So that could be the stop loss, if you will,

01:16:07 viewers maybe, if I'm not wrong, Chandan,

01:16:09 and the target is thousand rupees.

01:16:11 Remember, Tata Motors yesterday eclipsed TCS

01:16:14 as the best performing stock on the index in late trade.

01:16:17 So had a bit of a late surge yesterday

01:16:19 and that is Chandan Taparia's top call for the morning.

01:16:22 Now, we'll just get the rates going in about 15 seconds.

01:16:26 Remember, we'll start off maybe marginally higher,

01:16:28 if you will, but a lot of broader market stocks,

01:16:33 which are usual movers, are kind of lying flat.

01:16:35 So we'll probably have a flattish stock

01:16:39 to the mid-cap index as well.

01:16:40 But here are the first rates.

01:16:43 This Wednesday morning, Nifty, flat as flat can be.

01:16:47 The mid-cap and the small caps will come up,

01:16:49 as will the Nifty IT, which was in news yesterday.

01:16:52 Mid-caps about a quarter of a percent.

01:16:54 A small cap index about 0.4%.

01:16:56 Let's see if this lasts.

01:16:58 Nifty IT, 0.2%, and Nifty Bank would be flat.

01:17:01 Yesterday took support at about this 46,500 level,

01:17:05 which is where the largest concentration of the puts are.

01:17:10 And 46,658 currently, so hardly any move there.

01:17:13 Bring up the heat map and show you what's moving

01:17:16 and what's not on the gaining list.

01:17:18 Not too much, Bharti Airtail about half a percent.

01:17:20 That's the extent of the gain.

01:17:22 None of the gainers have a gain of more than a percent.

01:17:24 Bharti 0.7%, Tata Motors starts off well.

01:17:27 There is strength in Tata Consumer, Hindalco, SBI.

01:17:30 So it's fairly disparate.

01:17:31 No particular sector really ruling the rules,

01:17:34 but for the fact that FMCG,

01:17:36 including HUL and Tata Consumer, are up there.

01:17:39 So maybe the FMCG index starts off okay.

01:17:42 What's losing out?

01:17:43 Again, power grid, hardly any losses there.

01:17:46 You have a Wipro, BPCL, et cetera.

01:17:48 Nothing too untoward, really.

01:17:49 So it's a very, very flat day, except for Bharti.

01:17:53 We don't see too much, at least as far as large caps go.

01:17:56 Maybe just maybe Tata Motors,

01:17:57 because after a very strong day,

01:17:59 it's starting off on a positive note.

01:18:01 Let's see if it builds on from there.

01:18:02 Chandratapari certainly believes it will.

01:18:05 Tamanna, what are you spotting?

01:18:06 Yeah, I'm interested in seeing your top gainer

01:18:08 on the Nifty chart, which is Bharti,

01:18:10 because it seems to be reacting to the Vodafone fundraise,

01:18:14 which is why let's begin with Vodafone

01:18:16 and see what's happening there.

01:18:17 It was a big stock that we discussed pre-open as well.

01:18:22 Finally, that much-awaited fundraise detail is out.

01:18:25 They'll raise about 45,000 crores.

01:18:26 20,000 crores of that is in equity.

01:18:28 The stock down about 1.5% in open trade.

01:18:32 Indus Towers is expected to benefit

01:18:35 because 5,700 crore rupees is what Vodafone owes them.

01:18:39 Will they get some of that money back

01:18:40 if funds are raised was the question.

01:18:44 Not really reacting this morning.

01:18:46 Torrent Power is the other one that we're looking at.

01:18:49 It's received an LOI for transmission system

01:18:52 for evacuation of power from RE projects,

01:18:55 from PFC, in fact.

01:18:56 So that's talk about 2% up in opening trade.

01:19:00 Vedanta had an analyst call yesterday in a clutch of notes.

01:19:04 A mixed sort of response to Vedanta

01:19:07 from various brokerages houses,

01:19:09 but Novama has retained a buy

01:19:11 and that stock up about 2.5 to 3%.

01:19:15 Patanjali Foods is the other one

01:19:18 that we're talking about this morning.

01:19:20 The contempt notice, once again,

01:19:21 was for their Ayurvedic products,

01:19:23 but Patanjali Foods also seeing a downside

01:19:26 at about 2%, a sentimental hit,

01:19:28 perhaps over there or in the opening trade of that stock.

01:19:33 Another set of downgrades for your OMC pack

01:19:38 from Novama again this time.

01:19:40 So HPCL, BPCL, IOCL have all seen target prices reduced,

01:19:45 all in the red, but not massively.

01:19:48 I'm not seeing any major moves.

01:19:49 Amina, are you picking up anything?

01:19:51 - She quite, quite, quite this morning.

01:19:54 You've got a few stocks

01:19:55 and the reactions are not very sharp.

01:19:56 So like you said,

01:19:58 this is what a stable market usually looks like.

01:20:00 You're not gonna see massive run-ups

01:20:02 or run-downs for counters,

01:20:04 but a few that we are catching up to,

01:20:06 I mean, I think Tamanna and Neeraj mentioned Bharti.

01:20:09 The reason it's gaining also is because

01:20:12 Mr. Mittal has indicated that they are looking

01:20:15 to sell out of their non-core business

01:20:16 and focus and talk about their focus

01:20:18 to the telecom business.

01:20:20 That could be a reason.

01:20:21 So it could be another reason why you're seeing a big gain

01:20:24 on a level of clarity coming in

01:20:25 from Mr. Sunil Mittal himself.

01:20:27 Well, in terms of other stocks

01:20:29 that are drawing our attention this morning,

01:20:31 you've got Cochin Shipyard that's actually up 3.5%.

01:20:34 It is your biggest gain on the street.

01:20:37 The company is to inaugurate its hydrogen fuel cell ferry

01:20:40 in virtual mode today and on back of that new plant,

01:20:43 the stock trades the gain of 3.5%.

01:20:46 All cargo logistics, Tamanna has already mentioned that

01:20:48 the stock is lower

01:20:49 because of the monthly sales numbers seeing a decline.

01:20:52 You've also got GNT India.

01:20:54 That's a big order when I talked about this morning.

01:20:56 Small company, a 370 crore order is what has led

01:20:59 to the counter hitting up the circuit.

01:21:01 Not surprised there, right?

01:21:02 These are companies that usually react

01:21:04 to order wins quite significantly.

01:21:06 Well, apart from that, Motilal,

01:21:08 the aneurogen mentioned those numbers for nine months.

01:21:10 The market seemed pleased.

01:21:12 The stock is seeing a good gain.

01:21:14 This morning, a percent and a half higher.

01:21:16 BB Fintech continues its upward journey.

01:21:18 It's been a gainer every single day over the last few days.

01:21:21 And today as well, the stock not seeing a runaway rally,

01:21:23 but a gain of 2%, nevertheless,

01:21:25 on a quiet market is what we are picking up on.

01:21:28 Apart from that, you've also got a few other names

01:21:31 that are doing well.

01:21:31 So MMTC, KEC International,

01:21:34 Tandla is a mind of its own, a story of its own,

01:21:37 continues to do well this morning.

01:21:39 On extension of the deal with Truc,

01:21:41 all of the stock is up 3.5% in trade.

01:21:44 You want to comment on Tandla?

01:21:45 You're giving me the look.

01:21:46 No, no, no, no, not at all.

01:21:48 I don't know too much about Tandla to be very honest.

01:21:50 So, it's up 3,000% in the last couple of years.

01:21:52 Only 3,000.

01:21:53 So, Tandla is something which I put on my list yesterday

01:21:57 only for the reason that I like their business model.

01:22:00 And I think more and more there's going to be a use case

01:22:03 for it, which is why that tie up with Truc Collar as well.

01:22:06 And the AI component.

01:22:07 Just some context.

01:22:08 I think Tandla had become a trader's delight.

01:22:11 You were very often getting stuck either on the downside.

01:22:14 So these are stocks that you've got to be

01:22:16 a little more mindful of.

01:22:17 I think at least historically,

01:22:18 they go into upper circuits and lower.

01:22:19 Change the name.

01:22:21 Lower circuits, yeah.

01:22:22 - They go into platforms.

01:22:22 - It's questionable.

01:22:23 I mean, and they're reacting to a news like this up 5%.

01:22:25 - But hey, if it's gained 3,000%,

01:22:27 who are mere mortals to comment on it?

01:22:29 - Yeah, this is one of those markets right now

01:22:32 where the rules really depend.

01:22:35 Everything goes out the window.

01:22:37 - But just a couple of stocks.

01:22:38 I'm sure we mark Dreamfolks,

01:22:39 but that's the best performer on the A group stocks

01:22:42 this morning on the BSE.

01:22:43 7% higher on that brokerage note.

01:22:46 So, keep an eye out for that.

01:22:47 Remember, yesterday, Seller World up 5%

01:22:50 after that Motilal Oswal coverage.

01:22:51 Today, this one about 5.5% after that.

01:22:53 So, that one.

01:22:55 Paisal or Digital is the other one.

01:22:56 We highlighted it yesterday.

01:22:57 We spoke to the management,

01:22:59 and that one is up another 3% today.

01:23:01 So, that's to be kept in mind.

01:23:02 And lo behold, today, Vedanta is up 2.5% as well.

01:23:07 So, that analyst meet and those notes

01:23:09 have certainly done the trick.

01:23:11 It's after a while that I'm seeing

01:23:12 such a sharp move on Vedanta.

01:23:14 Opening thoughts, Chandan Taparia,

01:23:16 anything that stood out for you?

01:23:18 Any trades on the index?

01:23:20 Yeah, so like in index, again,

01:23:21 buy-on-decline needs to follow

01:23:23 because major trend is intact.

01:23:25 But as we are at new lifetime highs,

01:23:27 so some sort of supply we need to absorb.

01:23:30 So, I'll continue to be with buy-on-decline strengths.

01:23:33 As of now, for intraday players,

01:23:34 22,100 will be support.

01:23:36 For positional point of view, 21,900 will be support.

01:23:40 So, by looking at the support,

01:23:41 I'll play bounce of 50 to 100 points in Nifty Index.

01:23:44 Now, looking at the stock-wise,

01:23:46 in morning, we talked about Tata Motors.

01:23:47 I have two more ideas where we can focus.

01:23:50 First is buy-on-HL.

01:23:51 We have positive on most of the defense names.

01:23:53 Already discussed with you,

01:23:54 we are expecting a target towards 30 to 15 HL.

01:23:57 So, one can buy HL.

01:23:59 And apart from that, positive on the Tata Consumer.

01:24:02 We have seen a nice breakout

01:24:03 after a long consultative move of 30 trading session.

01:24:06 So, one can buy with support of 1180.

01:24:09 Here, we have a target towards 1240.

01:24:11 So, Tata Consumer, Tata Motors, HL,

01:24:14 and buy-on-decline with support of 20 to 100 in Nifty Index.

01:24:17 Buy-on-HL, that one's actually looking good.

01:24:22 In trade, it's up 1.7%.

01:24:24 Structurally looking set for a bigger move in today's trade.

01:24:28 Well, apart from that,

01:24:30 you've got a few other names that are catching attention.

01:24:32 Actually, let's pick up Bharti.

01:24:33 That's worth talking about.

01:24:35 Avinash, while it seems like Vodafone's got it bad,

01:24:39 Bharti is gaining this morning and gaining quite well.

01:24:42 It is turning out to be a top gainer on the Nifty 50.

01:24:46 Couple of things that worked out for Bharti,

01:24:48 you had Sunil Mittal come out and tell Mint

01:24:51 that they are actually looking to exit

01:24:53 their non-core business for digital growth.

01:24:56 Airtel has clearly shifted focus.

01:24:58 On back of the fundamental news point

01:25:01 or the commentary of the management,

01:25:03 would you go out and buy, Bharti?

01:25:05 Yeah, I think, Sameera, I think my sense is that,

01:25:07 you know, the management commentary has been very strong

01:25:10 post the Q3 numbers.

01:25:12 And I think this news flow about, you know,

01:25:15 getting out of non-core business is also something

01:25:17 which the market has obviously liked.

01:25:20 We believe that, you know, going forward

01:25:21 as the 5G rollout gets better and stronger,

01:25:24 Bharti is definitely well positioned

01:25:26 in terms of not only protecting its market share,

01:25:29 but even improving its ARPUs.

01:25:30 So we have been telling our clients

01:25:32 to actually accumulate the stocks slowly.

01:25:33 We could see levels of around 1275 to 1300

01:25:36 over the next, say, 12 to 15 years.

01:25:39 Okay.

01:25:40 Avinash, before we thank you,

01:25:42 aside of steel strips and wheels from the metal space,

01:25:46 any other new, any new idea or a result

01:25:51 that has looked interesting this earning season?

01:25:54 Well, I think clearly, you know,

01:25:55 we are quite positive on companies

01:25:57 like Action Construction Equipment.

01:25:59 I think-

01:25:59 It was up 7% yesterday.

01:26:01 I think they have got a combination of, you know,

01:26:04 capital goods, defense.

01:26:06 And I think the defense piece, Neeraj,

01:26:07 is going to get more and more better

01:26:09 in the coming 12 to 15 months.

01:26:11 Our sense is that, you know, this is one stock

01:26:13 which has actually outperformed the market

01:26:15 last year very significantly.

01:26:17 And even today, you know,

01:26:18 the earnings trajectory looks pretty solid.

01:26:20 So I think, you know, at any decline,

01:26:22 possibly, you know, probably around 1200

01:26:24 or 1230 odd levels,

01:26:25 one could look at levels of around 1350, 1400.

01:26:28 So I think clearly the stock is in a very positive trajectory

01:26:31 and we continue to be positive.

01:26:33 Yeah, absolutely.

01:26:36 Thank you so much, Avinash and Chandan.

01:26:37 Great to speak with you.

01:26:39 We're taking a very short break,

01:26:40 but a special interview on the other side

01:26:42 and one which I must say I really enjoyed doing.

01:26:45 I got the opportunity to speak with John Chambers.

01:26:48 He's chairman of USISPF.

01:26:51 That's the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum.

01:26:55 Of course, runs a very, you know, successful startup,

01:26:58 but best known in his capacity as the Cisco chairman

01:27:01 for 20 years and is Cisco chairman emeritus.

01:27:04 So he's doing this interview in his own personal capacity

01:27:08 and the comments should be looked at it like that.

01:27:10 So that exclusive interview,

01:27:11 he's in India, spoken only to the NDTV network.

01:27:14 Slice of that interview on the other side.

01:27:16 (upbeat music)

01:27:20 (upbeat music)

01:27:22 (upbeat music)

01:27:25 (upbeat music)

01:27:38 (upbeat music)

01:27:40 (upbeat music)

01:27:55 (upbeat music)

01:27:58 (upbeat music)

01:28:11 (upbeat music)

01:28:25 (upbeat music)

01:28:27 (upbeat music)

01:28:40 (upbeat music)

01:28:53 (upbeat music)

01:28:55 (upbeat music)

01:29:22 (upbeat music)

01:29:24 (upbeat music)

01:29:34 (upbeat music)

01:29:50 (upbeat music)

01:29:53 (upbeat music)

01:30:07 (upbeat music)

01:30:10 (upbeat music)

01:30:28 (upbeat music)

01:30:30 - In a world of increasing global uncertainty,

01:30:43 what is the next big thing?

01:30:46 Is it going to be the decade of AI?

01:30:49 Is that a story that is being overbought right now?

01:30:53 And what will we see in terms of India emerging

01:30:56 as one of the largest players on the world stage?

01:31:00 Now, rather than me speculate about all of these things,

01:31:03 I think the best person to speak to about this

01:31:06 is John Chambers.

01:31:07 He's with us right now in this exclusive interview,

01:31:11 speaking only to the NDTV network.

01:31:14 And remember, John Chambers 2024 outlook

01:31:19 is something that is very well followed,

01:31:21 very well, you know, seen by everyone

01:31:24 and he gets most of his predictions right.

01:31:26 - I try hard.

01:31:28 I've seen every movie and I've made every mistake

01:31:30 there is to make,

01:31:31 but I'm pretty good at pattern recognition.

01:31:33 - Yeah.

01:31:34 So having said that, your predictions on inflation

01:31:38 being a big pain post the pandemic,

01:31:40 on the impact of COVID on, you know,

01:31:43 a whole host of things has really ticked all the boxes.

01:31:46 So that's a great spot to start with.

01:31:48 - Yes.

01:31:49 - And let's begin with that.

01:31:50 So the biggest, you know, or the number one

01:31:53 on your list for predictions for 2024

01:31:56 is AI, something which half the world is scared of

01:32:00 and the other half is excited about.

01:32:02 Where do you stand?

01:32:03 - Well, I'm the half that is realistic

01:32:05 on the opportunity it will bring.

01:32:07 It will help us cure cancer.

01:32:10 It will make us more healthy over time.

01:32:12 It has the benefit to benefit every citizen in the world

01:32:16 and to have economic strengths

01:32:18 as well as huge productivity strengths.

01:32:21 It's going to move very fast though.

01:32:23 So I worry about job creation,

01:32:24 keeping up with the jobs that it will displace.

01:32:27 I worry about misuse of space union, cybersecurity on it.

01:32:31 But where you're leading me, I agree with

01:32:33 because when you talk to a person

01:32:35 about their views for the future,

01:32:37 your audience is going to say,

01:32:38 "Well, I've heard about John, but I don't know him that well.

01:32:41 You were kind in the introduction."

01:32:42 And January of 2020, we said,

01:32:45 "There's some illness coming out of China

01:32:48 that is slowing business in Southeast Asia."

01:32:51 And I said, "This is going to have a major economic impact."

01:32:54 - Yeah.

01:32:54 - And then by 2022, at the time everybody thought COVID,

01:32:58 and it was a terrible thing to happen to all of us,

01:33:00 but thought that would be the dominant force in 2022 and '23,

01:33:04 I said, "No, it will be inflation,"

01:33:06 which unfortunately turned out to be very accurate.

01:33:09 That was when I made the big bets on AI

01:33:11 saying it would become mainstream in early '22,

01:33:14 and it did toward the end of that year, as you know.

01:33:17 I've been betting on AI companies,

01:33:19 including several major Indian startups,

01:33:21 for seven years now.

01:33:23 And I think it will not only be as big as the internet or the cloud,

01:33:27 it'll be three to five times its size.

01:33:29 I think its impact on society will be largely positive,

01:33:32 but we've got to have some guide rails in place.

01:33:35 Do I think India has a chance to lead in AI

01:33:37 in a way it's never led in technology before?

01:33:40 I really do.

01:33:40 - Today, if you ran a large IT company or an internet company,

01:33:45 and you're wondering, "What do I do with AI?

01:33:49 Where I make money off it, I make sure it's safe,

01:33:52 it doesn't destroy the world as a lot of people are thinking about it,

01:33:57 regulations are on the horizon."

01:33:59 What do you do right now if you led, as of today?

01:34:02 Of course, you lead a very successful startup venture,

01:34:05 and we'll come to that.

01:34:06 But today, in that position, what would you do?

01:34:08 - Well, when I left Cisco, I made my personal commitment.

01:34:12 I would support them, but it was their company to run,

01:34:14 and I wouldn't want the ex-CEO saying,

01:34:17 "Here's what I think of that company's future," et cetera.

01:34:19 So I did that very smoothly,

01:34:22 and Cisco's a great company.

01:34:23 It's my child on it.

01:34:26 Now, back to your bigger question, however,

01:34:28 a large high-tech company or a large bank or a large insurance company

01:34:32 or a large retail company or a large oil company,

01:34:36 you've got to have the courage to reinvent yourself.

01:34:38 You've got to have the courage to disrupt.

01:34:41 You've got to have the courage to destroy your business models

01:34:43 before somebody else destroys them.

01:34:45 You've got to have the courage to get out of your comfort zone,

01:34:47 where you don't view AI as fear.

01:34:50 You say it has tremendous power.

01:34:52 I've got to understand its strengths,

01:34:53 and I've got to understand how I'm going to use it uniquely.

01:34:56 And if you watch the companies that have moved well in the stock market,

01:34:59 and I'll pick a couple out,

01:35:01 they, in the U.S., they're the companies that not only said,

01:35:05 "I'm going to adapt AI, and here's what I'm going to do with my strategy,"

01:35:08 but they were able, in their most recent quarters,

01:35:10 to show the business results that came from them.

01:35:13 Companies like ServiceNow have done a great job.

01:35:15 Companies like Microsoft have done a great job.

01:35:18 Now, you might say as an audience,

01:35:19 "Yeah, but those are all tech companies."

01:35:22 Postal service companies, government companies,

01:35:24 they are the slowest-moving companies in the world, right?

01:35:27 I want to pick out LaPoste.

01:35:28 That's led by an amazingly good Philippe Boile, CEO.

01:35:32 And with 260,000 postal workers,

01:35:37 he made a decision a decade ago to bet on AI.

01:35:41 And he explained to his entire employee base,

01:35:44 to his shareholders, to the unions,

01:35:46 on what that would mean for their future.

01:35:49 He trained 230,000 employees on AI.

01:35:53 You're talking about people who used to deliver the mail,

01:35:55 who now are delivering services,

01:35:57 and there's a trusted band throughout all of France.

01:36:01 He acquired seven or eight AI companies.

01:36:03 He works with startups all the time.

01:36:05 So every industry has a chance to reinvent itself.

01:36:09 Now, here's the downside.

01:36:11 If companies who have been successful

01:36:12 keep doing the right things too long,

01:36:14 they're going to get into trouble,

01:36:15 and the market sees that.

01:36:17 So you've got to have the courage to take risks.

01:36:20 And as you start across uncharted waters,

01:36:22 there are going to be some bumps along the way,

01:36:24 and you have to adjust very quickly.

01:36:26 That's what Silicon Valley has traditionally done very well,

01:36:29 but it used to be mainly Silicon Valley

01:36:30 where 90% of venture capital goes.

01:36:33 I make a huge amount of my own bets.

01:36:35 I've got nine unicorns, as we said earlier.

01:36:37 Not bad out of 20 companies.

01:36:39 I'm a small startup,

01:36:40 but half my CEOs are Indian diaspora

01:36:44 or located here in India.

01:36:46 India has an education and democracy system.

01:36:48 You've learned how to partner with the U.S.,

01:36:50 and the U.S. has learned how to partner with India.

01:36:52 That perhaps was the biggest bet that I made seven years ago

01:36:55 in saying this should be

01:36:57 the most important relationship in the world,

01:36:59 not just on business-to-business and nice economic returns,

01:37:02 but to the lives of every citizen for job creation

01:37:05 toward the 1.2 million jobs

01:37:07 we need to create in this country per month.

01:37:09 The ability to look at where the market's going

01:37:12 and say India will not only be

01:37:13 the most successful economically,

01:37:15 but it will be inclusive of all groups.

01:37:17 And to do it in partnership with the U.S.,

01:37:19 the largest democracy,

01:37:20 we will work together in common goals

01:37:23 such as supply chain, manufacturing, agriculture, defense,

01:37:27 but have the ability to dream together.

01:37:28 - Yeah. - Is it easy to do?

01:37:30 No.

01:37:31 But I think this country can do it.

01:37:33 We have an election this year,

01:37:35 a big one in India and the U.S.

01:37:38 I may go as far as to say

01:37:40 maybe the one in the U.S. will be more of a suspense

01:37:42 and exciting than in India.

01:37:44 The markets, et cetera,

01:37:46 have factored in policy continuity here at least.

01:37:50 Does it make a difference to the partnership

01:37:52 whether Trump is in the White House possibly

01:37:55 or a Biden continuation or someone else?

01:37:58 As a business leader,

01:38:00 how big a factor is it about what happens

01:38:03 in the United States in terms of elections later this year?

01:38:07 - Well, one of the first things that I did

01:38:09 when I was fortunate enough to have the leadership at Cisco

01:38:12 in the very early '90s

01:38:14 is I formed, along with one of the top venture capitalists,

01:38:16 John Doerr, TechNet.

01:38:19 And that was to have influence in Washington

01:38:21 and around the world on technology,

01:38:23 which we never did before,

01:38:24 and we always did it as individual companies.

01:38:27 And we built it with the premise

01:38:28 that we cannot be tied to one political party or another.

01:38:32 We have to represent all of America

01:38:34 because there's going to be lots of challenges to go with it.

01:38:37 So I think business leaders

01:38:38 who make the mistake of tying themselves completely

01:38:40 to one party or another make a mistake on that.

01:38:43 I think the business leaders can say what their opinions are

01:38:46 and what they view in terms of economic growth

01:38:49 and creation and predictability,

01:38:51 and then you can say your views

01:38:52 in terms of the importance that India and the U.S.

01:38:54 play very strongly, which I have no problem doing

01:38:57 with whichever leader the U.S. picks.

01:39:00 I wish we had stronger leaders in the cycle

01:39:02 to be very candid.

01:39:03 As you know, the majority of Americans

01:39:06 would like to see somebody

01:39:07 other than the two most likely candidates.

01:39:09 First time in my lifetime that's occurred.

01:39:11 But my parents are both doctors.

01:39:13 You deal with the world the way it is.

01:39:15 And so whichever one wins, I will absolutely support.

01:39:18 And whichever one wins,

01:39:19 I guarantee you Prime Minister Modi

01:39:21 will find a way to build that trust

01:39:23 and the candid relationship.

01:39:24 But the teams now trust each other.

01:39:27 The American Indian diaspora is amazingly powerful.

01:39:30 Half of our large technology companies

01:39:32 are led by ex-Indians.

01:39:34 Why do you think so?

01:39:35 I mean, that's a matter of fascination back home as well.

01:39:39 And, you know, Indians here like to sort of think that,

01:39:45 "Oh, they're our own."

01:39:47 Of course, a lot of them have studied.

01:39:48 They are your own.

01:39:49 I mean, they've got those opportunities in America,

01:39:51 they're American citizens.

01:39:52 But, you know, we like to appropriate

01:39:54 all your brown CEOs.

01:39:56 But why do you think that happens?

01:39:57 Why do you think that works?

01:39:58 Well, you may have to accept me as an Indian too

01:40:00 because I love this country.

01:40:02 But why it happened is very simple.

01:40:04 Your IITs, your education system

01:40:06 generated three decades of top engineers.

01:40:12 And the majority of successful companies,

01:40:15 whether it's Lisa Su at AMD

01:40:18 or where you're going with Microsoft,

01:40:20 with Satya, Adobe with Shantanu,

01:40:24 IBM with Arvin, et cetera,

01:40:26 half of those leaders are Indian engineers.

01:40:30 I'm the exception.

01:40:31 I'm a business leader in a technology-driven environment.

01:40:34 And so the reason is very simple.

01:40:36 An education system that teaches about technology

01:40:40 and how to build great companies

01:40:42 is just getting stronger.

01:40:43 But also one that learns how to partner together.

01:40:46 So if you talk to any of these leaders I've just met,

01:40:48 all of them believe hugely in the Indian-US relationship.

01:40:51 - Yeah. - All of them believe

01:40:52 in how do we benefit the citizens in America

01:40:54 and the citizens in India inclusive

01:40:56 in regards of age, geographic location,

01:40:58 religion, et cetera, on it.

01:41:01 So it's a simple answer.

01:41:02 People try to make it too complex.

01:41:05 When I said India will become

01:41:06 the largest economy in the world,

01:41:07 first leader I think to really say that very aggressively

01:41:10 on a national stage in front of your prime minister

01:41:13 and in front of Secretary of State Blinken,

01:41:15 that was in hindsight a little bit scary.

01:41:17 And it was.

01:41:18 - I want to ask you why you made that bet.

01:41:21 And you've spoken about Prime Minister Modi

01:41:23 through this interview.

01:41:25 You've even said that I wish we had a leader

01:41:27 like him in the US.

01:41:28 I want to understand why.

01:41:31 I want to understand why

01:41:32 and why you are saying that India

01:41:35 will be the largest economy in the world.

01:41:36 It's a matter of when, not if.

01:41:38 - Not if, yes.

01:41:40 So you really hit at the heart of the issue

01:41:42 and you got there very quickly.

01:41:44 The reason I'm very good at pattern recognition,

01:41:47 I'm dyslexic, which means I have to go A, B, Z.

01:41:50 I can't go A, B, C, D, E, F.

01:41:52 I get lost in it.

01:41:53 And for any of your audience who's dyslexic,

01:41:55 you know, and it's something,

01:41:56 there's a weakness on one hand,

01:41:58 but you have to learn to balance.

01:41:59 It's a nice way of saying

01:42:00 once I see pattern recognition,

01:42:02 I look, how does that play out?

01:42:03 And that's why people say

01:42:04 I'm able to see around the corners.

01:42:06 I'm able to understand the internet,

01:42:07 the cloud, cybersecurity, voice being free.

01:42:11 Every country becomes digital.

01:42:12 Now every country becomes an AI company.

01:42:15 If you look at the mathematics,

01:42:17 India's population is going to have

01:42:19 the fastest economic growth,

01:42:20 not just for the next five years,

01:42:22 but with the plans and programs

01:42:23 your Prime Minister is putting in place now

01:42:25 for the next 20 to 30 years.

01:42:27 Assuming that you have the courage

01:42:29 to continue to take risks

01:42:30 and be critical of yourself on it.

01:42:32 You look at the population growth,

01:42:34 average age 26 or younger,

01:42:36 average age in China,

01:42:37 aging rapidly in terms of the direction.

01:42:40 China's population going from

01:42:42 about 1.4 billion to 800 million.

01:42:45 With a much older population,

01:42:46 India's going from 1.4 billion to 2 billion.

01:42:50 The ability to do the education with the speed,

01:42:52 the optimism, the entrepreneurship.

01:42:54 China's issues are health self-inflicted.

01:42:58 They got away from reasonably free enterprise.

01:43:00 They got away from startups.

01:43:02 The government started to get involved

01:43:03 in almost everything,

01:43:05 put regulations in place,

01:43:06 put a win-lose mentality versus the US

01:43:08 and much of the rest of the world.

01:43:10 Doesn't surprise me, they've slowed down.

01:43:12 Do you think they can recover?

01:43:13 No.

01:43:14 I think the mistakes have been too dramatic.

01:43:16 Now they've got democratic,

01:43:17 it's going against them

01:43:19 on population from 1.4 to 800 million.

01:43:22 Could they?

01:43:23 Yes. But do I think they will?

01:43:25 No, because it requires tremendous courage.

01:43:27 And you've got to say,

01:43:28 what was it that got us on top and miss?

01:43:31 Now, remember,

01:43:33 three years ago, if I had said that,

01:43:35 everybody would look at me like,

01:43:36 "John, what are you thinking?"

01:43:38 But I said it three and five years ago.

01:43:40 And it's hard once you lose that entrepreneurial spirit.

01:43:43 It's hard once you use the foreign direct investment

01:43:46 into a country to get it going, to get trust.

01:43:49 Do you have the track record?

01:43:51 Do you have the relationships and trust?

01:43:52 And China lost most of those.

01:43:56 Now, do I think it's in India's

01:43:58 and the US' interest in China

01:44:00 to recover and get stronger?

01:44:01 Absolutely.

01:44:02 Because this is one the whole world can benefit from.

01:44:04 And do I think over time the US and China

01:44:06 will do dramatically better than we are doing today?

01:44:09 Yes.

01:44:10 But China came with a win-lose attitude.

01:44:12 And so I think in that,

01:44:14 people forgot about entrepreneurship

01:44:16 and the empowerment.

01:44:17 And if a government, regardless of its form of government,

01:44:22 over-regulates, over-controls innovation,

01:44:25 you don't move with the speed of innovation.

01:44:27 Could they recover?

01:44:29 Possibly, but I think if you look at the math,

01:44:30 it's very hard.

01:44:32 So how did I see it?

01:44:33 Purely math.

01:44:34 It was easy to do the math out,

01:44:35 the education, democracies working together, et cetera.

01:44:38 Now, if India misexecutes or the US misexecutes,

01:44:42 could China be there?

01:44:43 Yes.

01:44:44 Fast forward from three years ago,

01:44:47 everybody said China would be number one.

01:44:49 People said US would be number two, India number three.

01:44:51 I actually think it's going to be India, US, and China.

01:44:55 If I were forecasting out half century,

01:44:58 I'd say the US will be probably 30% bigger than China.

01:45:04 India will be maybe 90% bigger than China.

01:45:06 Whoa.

01:45:07 So we'll see if that plays out.

01:45:08 Yeah, that's a big one.

01:45:09 Am I an optimist? Oh, yeah.

01:45:10 But I believe in your country.

01:45:11 I believe in your citizens.

01:45:12 I believe in the relationship with the US.

01:45:14 You are a country of dreamers,

01:45:16 but you have the ability now,

01:45:18 because you've seen it work,

01:45:19 to take dreams, inspire hope,

01:45:22 make a difference, and drive it through.

01:45:23 This has been fantastic.

01:45:24 Thank you so much, John.

01:45:25 It was an honor.

01:45:26 Thank you, as always.

01:45:27 Thank you.

01:45:29 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:45:32 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:45:35 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:45:39 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:45:42 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:45:48 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:45:56 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:06 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:09 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:29 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:32 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:45 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:46:58 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:47:01 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:47:10 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:47:19 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:47:22 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:47:45 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:47:48 [MUSIC PLAYING]

01:48:14 Welcome back.

01:48:15 You're with India Market Open.

01:48:17 All right, the company in focus this morning

01:48:20 is PNB Housing Finance.

01:48:22 Morgan Stanley Note recently saw 40% upside on the stock.

01:48:28 Q3 numbers have also been fairly decent.

01:48:30 We're trying to understand what makes this housing finance

01:48:33 company tick, and the focus that they have kept on the HFC

01:48:37 business, bearing down the corporate business, et cetera.

01:48:40 Girish Kowsky, the MD and CEO at PNB Housing Finance,

01:48:43 is joining us now for more on the story.

01:48:48 Mr. Kowsky, very good morning.

01:48:49 Thank you for speaking with us here at NDTV Profit.

01:48:52 Let's start by talking about your Q3 numbers,

01:48:55 and just as a takeoff point for our conversation.

01:48:59 Was it a tough quarter?

01:49:00 We've seen that in the financial space,

01:49:03 your net interest income was down about 19% year on year,

01:49:07 operating profits were also squeezed about 20%.

01:49:11 Provisions were up.

01:49:13 How would you look at that one quarter, quarter three?

01:49:17 Is it an aberration, or are you seeing a climate which is

01:49:21 slightly difficult right now?

01:49:24 So I think quarter three was soft because there were

01:49:29 a lot of exceptional items.

01:49:30 I think there were a lot of one-offs in comparison.

01:49:33 I think if you look at PNB Housing today,

01:49:36 we are through a transformational journey,

01:49:38 and this is in two phases.

01:49:40 So phase one is now over.

01:49:42 Phase one had to do a lot with raising capital,

01:49:45 getting the corporate book right in terms of rundown,

01:49:48 and getting the asset quality right.

01:49:50 On corporate, we were at about, let's say,

01:49:54 about two years back, we were at about 35% of NPA,

01:49:58 and now it is less than 3%.

01:50:00 So we have just one account.

01:50:02 We are expecting resolution in this quarter.

01:50:04 So corporate is more or less sorted.

01:50:06 We ran down the book from 18,000 crores to about 2,200 crores

01:50:09 at the last quarter end.

01:50:11 Now, and also we did a lot of work on growth,

01:50:15 because a year back, if you see the growth,

01:50:18 it used to be negative or flattish on the retail side.

01:50:22 The first nine months, we have progressed from zero

01:50:26 to about 13.5% in terms of book growth,

01:50:29 and this was a growth of 22%.

01:50:32 So quarter three was soft because of exceptional items.

01:50:36 Otherwise, now we are ready for phase two.

01:50:39 Phase two, our focus is going to be in terms of growth

01:50:43 and margins.

01:50:46 The reason why I'm saying growth is that,

01:50:49 in spite of all those challenges, in the last one year,

01:50:51 we've shown a growth of 13.5% on retail.

01:50:54 Since corporate, we have stopped doing business temporarily.

01:50:58 The guidance for coming year on book growth is going to be 70,

01:51:02 and disbursement growth is going to be 24% plus.

01:51:05 So in last, by this March, we will be at 300 branches.

01:51:10 So if you see, in last 17 months,

01:51:13 we would have opened 200 branches, taking it to 300.

01:51:18 That means from 100 to 300.

01:51:21 So from coming financial year onwards,

01:51:24 we would have 300 branches, and out of 300 branches,

01:51:27 200 branches would be focusing on lower end of prime

01:51:31 and affordable business, which means these are high yield

01:51:34 businesses.

01:51:35 So going forward, growth and margins is the focus.

01:51:38 - Okay.

01:51:39 I'll come to you on details on margin and growth guidance,

01:51:42 but just a word on your corporate book,

01:51:44 and that's impressive, the extent to which that corporate book

01:51:46 is run down.

01:51:47 You're saying there's one borrower left.

01:51:49 You're going to close that this quarter.

01:51:51 Can you give us an idea, both on timelines and the amount

01:51:56 that you hope to recover?

01:51:58 - No, I mentioned there's only one NPA account.

01:52:01 The book is 2,200 crores, which is down from 18,000 crores.

01:52:06 So that one account is small account, it's about 80 odd crores,

01:52:09 so that we are expecting resolution this quarter.

01:52:11 - Okay, so it's not going to make a huge difference here or there.

01:52:14 It's about 80 odd crores, and then you've cleaned up that book

01:52:18 completely.

01:52:19 Talk to us about the focus as well,

01:52:22 because your non-housing portion of your book is relatively

01:52:28 smaller.

01:52:29 The focus is on the housing finance side.

01:52:31 Is that where your focus continues, and how do you aim to grow it?

01:52:35 - Our focus will be on both home and non-home,

01:52:38 but both under retail.

01:52:40 Largely, our focus will be on retail.

01:52:43 So as we speak, now we are close to 97% of retail book at the portfolio

01:52:50 level, and incrementally we're doing only retail now.

01:52:53 So our focus is going to be on retail.

01:52:55 Within retail, we are operating in two segments now.

01:52:58 One is prime, and the second one is affordable.

01:53:01 We are launching a new segment from April that is emerging markets.

01:53:05 So out of the 300 branches, 160 branches would focus on affordable.

01:53:10 We are seeing very good traction.

01:53:12 We were one of the fastest to build an AM of 1,000 crores,

01:53:16 so we see a lot of traction there.

01:53:18 So we will have 160 branches focusing on affordable housing,

01:53:22 and the yields, what we are expecting for coming year,

01:53:25 is going to be about 12.5% from affordable segment.

01:53:29 And 50 branches would be focusing on emerging markets.

01:53:33 So here the yield should be close to about 10%,

01:53:36 and the balance 90 branches will be focusing on prime business.

01:53:40 - I want to understand your loan growth trajectory, Mr. Kowsky.

01:53:45 So your loan growth in FY25 is about 15%.

01:53:49 The following year, FY25 is expected 17%.

01:53:54 Do you aim to bump this up?

01:53:56 What is your outlook for your loan growth rate?

01:53:59 - I think for next two, three years, we should grow the book by 17%.

01:54:04 So this year it's going to be between 14% to 15%.

01:54:07 I'm talking about retail, since we are not doing corporate now.

01:54:11 So on retail, the growth this year is going to be between 14% to 15%.

01:54:15 And from coming year, for next two to three years' time,

01:54:19 we will focus to grow at 17%.

01:54:21 - In your individual housing book, which is about 17%, 2% of your loan mix,

01:54:27 how much of it is affordable?

01:54:30 And I'm just trying to get a sense of, you know,

01:54:32 how much of it is now growing because of this entire real estate housing boom

01:54:37 that we're seeing.

01:54:38 Are you seeing benefits of that?

01:54:40 And going forward, do you see benefits of that sustaining?

01:54:44 - Oh, definitely, yes.

01:54:45 Demand is quite robust.

01:54:47 Real estate is doing well since last three to four years' time,

01:54:51 and this cycle would last for another at least five to six years.

01:54:54 So we see a lot of demand.

01:54:56 Affordability has improved drastically.

01:54:59 And also because we had changed our focus and we had started

01:55:05 Affordable Vertical last year,

01:55:07 and we're going to start Emerging Vertical in the coming year.

01:55:10 So we see a lot of scope, especially on affordable and emerging,

01:55:13 in terms of profitability.

01:55:15 And the prime pool also would grow.

01:55:18 And overall, you know, the growth is going to be about 17%.

01:55:22 - Geographically, the lion's share continues to be from Maharashtra,

01:55:25 and you think will continue to be from Maharashtra?

01:55:28 - No, we are a national player, so we are operating in about 22 states.

01:55:33 Our focus is on all the zones, south, north, and west,

01:55:38 to a small extent in east.

01:55:40 I think that focus would continue.

01:55:42 However, within the segments, we may operate to be slightly skewed

01:55:45 towards one of the zones.

01:55:47 - That you are.

01:55:48 I'm just wondering if it's going to continue in that trajectory

01:55:51 or you're working on new geographies and locations as well.

01:55:55 - So we are getting deeper into each of these geographies.

01:55:59 I think in terms of skewness, it will be slightly skewed towards south,

01:56:04 maybe 38%, 39% incrementally,

01:56:07 and the rest will be between west and north.

01:56:09 So in terms of balance, it will be almost, you know,

01:56:12 all the three zones will contribute almost similar numbers.

01:56:15 - So more focus on south.

01:56:17 Just on your margins, I want to understand that you had a credit upgrade

01:56:20 recently, Mr. Kowsky.

01:56:22 Has that helped you in terms of cost of funds,

01:56:24 and will that flow into your margins?

01:56:26 - Definitely, yes, it has helped, and we also see that the interstates

01:56:29 have now peaked out, and in about two quarters from now,

01:56:32 the rates would start dropping.

01:56:34 So we will also get some benefit on the cost of borrowing

01:56:37 because of the rating update.

01:56:40 So definitely we'll see some benefit, and this apart,

01:56:42 our focus is to increase margins and directionally, strategically,

01:56:46 now two-thirds of our branches would be focusing on originating business

01:56:50 at a better yield, a higher yield.

01:56:52 So this will definitely be after two, three quarters time,

01:56:57 the margin should improve.

01:57:01 - Where is that higher yield coming from,

01:57:03 and what would be your margin guidance?

01:57:05 You're saying it will improve in two to three quarters.

01:57:07 Can you give us a sense, a direction, and a ballpark number on that?

01:57:11 - So as of now, margin is about 3.5%,

01:57:15 so we'll be able to maintain that for the next two, three quarters.

01:57:18 After that, I think with every passing quarter,

01:57:21 the margins would improve as the mix in the book keeps changing.

01:57:24 There is no guidance on future margin, but definitely I think

01:57:27 after two, three quarters, margins should improve

01:57:29 because most of the origination would be at a higher yield.

01:57:34 - So two to three quarters later, you see an improvement.

01:57:36 You can't really give us a number to where you expect that to go,

01:57:39 but thank you so much, Mr. Girish Korshki,

01:57:41 for taking out the time and speaking to us today.

01:57:44 That's a wrap on the India market open,

01:57:47 but up next, we are going to be seeing Talking Point.

01:57:51 Stay tuned.

01:57:52 ♪ ♪

01:58:05 ♪ ♪

01:58:18 ♪ ♪

01:58:20 ♪ ♪

01:58:22 ♪ ♪

01:58:23 ♪ ♪

01:58:33 ♪ ♪

01:58:43 ♪ ♪

01:58:53 ♪ ♪

01:59:03 ♪ ♪

01:59:13 ♪ ♪

01:59:23 ♪ ♪

01:59:33 ♪ ♪

01:59:43 ♪ ♪

01:59:53 ♪ ♪

02:00:03 ♪ ♪

02:00:13 ♪ ♪

02:00:23 ♪ ♪

02:00:33 ♪ ♪

02:00:43 ♪ ♪

02:00:53 ♪ ♪

02:01:03 ♪ ♪

02:01:13 ♪ ♪

02:01:23 ♪ ♪

02:01:33 ♪ ♪

02:01:48 - Juniper Hotels, a fresh issue of 1,800 crores.

02:01:51 It's just getting listed or has listed.

02:01:54 This is the hired brand, remember?

02:01:56 In fact, nine seconds left for the listing to happen,

02:02:00 and while hotels are a very strong subset

02:02:03 currently within the markets,

02:02:04 just a two-time subscription at the end

02:02:07 probably leaves to Juniper not necessarily having the best debut.

02:02:12 Let's get the price up on the screen.

02:02:14 While these are the visuals, the price up on the screen,

02:02:16 about a 3% uptick, so nothing too dramatic.

02:02:18 Remember, about a year ago, it might be a very different story.

02:02:24 Though hotels have done really well,

02:02:25 Indian hotels and the likes have actually hit life highs as well,

02:02:28 but the hotel sector was in a thick of a lot of action back then.

02:02:35 Who knows? Things may have been different,

02:02:36 but for Juniper as well, I mean, one, it was a large-ish issue

02:02:40 and related to the financials,

02:02:43 the subscription numbers weren't the strongest,

02:02:45 so maybe this was anticipated.

02:02:48 But thanks for tuning into Talking Point,

02:02:51 and I'm your host, Neeraj Shah,

02:02:53 and the case for a chat today,

02:02:55 well, we will ask our guest about whether this persistent trend of DIs,

02:03:00 investing into the market at all valuations, persists.

02:03:05 And in fact, the question on valuations as well,

02:03:07 that have valuations peaked for the period,

02:03:10 or could there be a chance of even further valuation upsides

02:03:15 for the Indian markets?

02:03:16 And of course, amongst the other things,

02:03:18 while everybody's been talking about manufacturing,

02:03:21 we try and dwell with our guest today

02:03:23 on the consumption side as well,

02:03:25 and try and understand from him

02:03:26 about what are the trends of India's consumption spends,

02:03:30 and what investing decisions can be made out of that.

02:03:34 Our guest today is Ajay Argal.

02:03:36 He's Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager

02:03:38 at Franklin Templeton.

02:03:39 Ajay, great having you.

02:03:40 Thanks for taking the time out.

02:03:41 Hope all is well.

02:03:42 Yes, thank you, Neeraj.

02:03:44 Thanks for having me.

02:03:45 The pleasure is entirely ours.

02:03:47 Ajay, one has to admit that the market has kind of stayed

02:03:52 or stood on the crutch of DI buying

02:03:56 for the last innumerable number of months.

02:03:58 Now, we've seen indices being buy on dips

02:04:02 simply because the flow of money from the retail investor

02:04:05 and the domestic investor has been very strong.

02:04:07 My question to a portfolio manager like you

02:04:10 is that with the valuations the way they are,

02:04:13 with global markets doing what they are doing,

02:04:16 while you're getting flows,

02:04:18 would you be investing that money at the current valuations?

02:04:22 Are there enough pockets available?

02:04:24 Or would you be a bit circumspect and take a bit of a cash call?

02:04:28 Yeah, so as you highlighted,

02:04:33 the market valuations are definitely not cheap,

02:04:39 but at the same time, there are pockets where it are not too expensive.

02:04:43 So if you kind of just segregate even at the market cap level,

02:04:47 there is a clear indication that the large caps

02:04:53 are kind of reasonably valued.

02:04:55 They are not on the expensive side,

02:04:58 but if you look at especially the mid caps,

02:05:01 then the valuations are definitely on the higher side.

02:05:05 So Nifty Index, if you look there,

02:05:08 I mean, it is trading at around 21 times one year forward earnings,

02:05:12 which is around five or ten year averages and medians.

02:05:17 So it's kind of in a reasonable range.

02:05:22 But whereas if you look at the Nifty Mid Cap Index,

02:05:26 then it is kind of trading at around 27 times one year forward earnings,

02:05:31 and which is also kind of a 30-35% premium to the Nifty Index.

02:05:38 And we have seen in the past that typically

02:05:41 those are the limits at which the Nifty,

02:05:48 I mean, or at which the Mid Cap Index trades.

02:05:52 So mid cap on a relative basis to the large caps are on the expensive side.

02:05:59 Can they be more expensive?

02:06:00 Yes, they can be like they were just immediately after post-COVID,

02:06:05 though it was a bit different then because the earnings were much more depressed.

02:06:10 So on a normalized earnings,

02:06:11 this kind of premium for the mid caps definitely is on the higher side.

02:06:16 So that's why we see that the pockets of opportunity which we are getting

02:06:20 when we do our bottom-up stock picking,

02:06:23 it's much more in the larger caps compared to the mid caps.

02:06:27 And just as an aside,

02:06:28 even the small caps there are trading at 10% premium to the Nifty Index,

02:06:32 which is again close to the peak which they have traded in the past.

02:06:36 So coming back to your questions,

02:06:38 what do we do in this kind of market?

02:06:40 Our objective is always been to get the better stocks within the portfolio

02:06:47 because as portfolio managers,

02:06:48 our main job is to invest the money which the investors have given to us in the market

02:06:55 on a fundamental basis.

02:06:58 And we generally don't take too large a cash call,

02:07:02 maybe 5%, 6%, maybe up to 7%,

02:07:05 but not beyond that because we are not kind of the equity funds are not asset allocation funds.

02:07:10 They are the funds to get the best stock ideas into the portfolio.

02:07:15 So we still see pockets where we think that they can do relatively better.

02:07:21 And of course, equity is a long-term investing horizon instrument.

02:07:27 So you should not be looking at the immediate short term,

02:07:29 maybe six months, one year.

02:07:31 So definitely over the next six months to a year,

02:07:34 the investor return expectations should be toned down.

02:07:37 But from a longer term perspective,

02:07:39 all the growth drivers which India have in terms of demographics,

02:07:43 in terms of under penetration,

02:07:45 in terms of the young population and the consumption,

02:07:51 which will keep on increasing as we go forward over the years and decades,

02:07:55 those kind of fundamental long-term growth drivers are there.

02:07:59 So it remains a very attractive market,

02:08:01 but just a bit of caution from the short term.

02:08:05 Got it.

02:08:06 Caution for the short term opportunities in the large caps,

02:08:09 not as much in the mid cap space.

02:08:11 So that is the first key takeaway from this conversation thus far.

02:08:15 Where is it that you've seen, Ajay,

02:08:19 the best possibility of earnings growth over the course of the next six to 12-odd months

02:08:25 based on whatever assessments that you and your team have made about commentary

02:08:30 in the first nine months and quarter three?

02:08:32 Yeah.

02:08:33 So we are seeing pockets where the earnings growth is very strong,

02:08:36 but you have to balance that with the kind of valuations which are there in those stocks.

02:08:42 So obviously some of the retail stocks, for example,

02:08:47 have had very good visibility for the growth,

02:08:51 but it's kind of, in our opinion, more than compensated for the valuation.

02:08:55 So it's just not the growth which you should look at.

02:08:57 You should look at the combination of growth versus valuation,

02:09:01 which is where we try to position ourselves that we generally get into growth at a reasonable price.

02:09:07 So from that perspective, we are finding pockets of opportunity when we combine the growth and valuations.

02:09:15 We are finding that we are positive on the industrial sector,

02:09:22 though our positivity has kind of reduced because the stocks have done phenomenally well,

02:09:27 but purely from the growth visibility perspective, that is a sector where the growth visibility is the highest

02:09:32 because the order books have been strong and the execution by most of the companies in the sector has really picked up.

02:09:39 So the top line growth and then there is the operating leverage.

02:09:42 So that improves the margins.

02:09:44 So a lot of companies within the sector have good growth visibility, especially over the next six to 12 months.

02:09:53 And the valuations, though they are on the higher side, they are not terribly expensive.

02:09:57 So we are getting pockets of opportunity there.

02:10:00 The other sector which has not done so well in the recent past is the banking sector,

02:10:05 where the growth visibility is reasonable,

02:10:08 though there is a bit of a tone down of expectations in terms of growth as well

02:10:13 because the RBI itself has highlighted that there are certain pockets,

02:10:18 especially in personal and secured loans, where they want a bit of a lower growth.

02:10:24 But even then the growth possibilities look very sanguine in kind of 12, 13, 14 percent, that kind of band.

02:10:33 And there the advantage is that the valuations are really reasonable.

02:10:36 This is the only sector where the valuations are lower than the last five or even 10 year averages.

02:10:42 And the margins is kind of normalizing because we saw very high margins in the last couple of quarters,

02:10:51 which was because of the timing mismatch between the asset pricing and the liability pricing.

02:10:56 And now that is getting normalized. But in spite of that, we have reasonable growth.

02:11:00 Another sector we see good growth opportunities is the real estate.

02:11:04 So the real estate, the cycle has really turned because the affordability has improved substantially,

02:11:10 especially over the last 10 years or so when the real estate prices didn't go anywhere.

02:11:15 If you go back two years, then 10 year period before that, the real estate prices actually didn't move at all,

02:11:21 whereas the salary is kept on going up. So the affordability increased and therefore there is a pickup in the real estate cycle.

02:11:29 The launches, the presales, everything is happening at a very fast pace.

02:11:36 So the growth visibility is very strong there as well.

02:11:40 And the other sector where we are positive is pharmaceuticals.

02:11:45 And there it is actually more stock specific. So there are a few stocks where we see that the growth visibility is very high.

02:11:52 And the growth in the domestic market is anyway quite stable around the 10 percent band.

02:12:01 But certain companies are having specific strategies with respect to the export market.

02:12:07 So there is a company who is specializing in the specialist pharma space in the US,

02:12:13 another company who is specializing in complex generics where the competition is much more limited.

02:12:18 So there in those kind of companies, we are seeing growth visibilities with a reasonable valuation.

02:12:24 So these are some of the pockets where we see that the growth, especially in the near term, is likely to be very strong.

02:12:33 OK. Well, you know, we will talk about some of the industrials with Ajay as well,

02:12:39 because I remember sometime in December, if I'm not wrong, Ajay and Franklin Tepal were very constructive on power, for example, as a pocket as well.

02:12:45 So we'll talk about that too. But just one quick broad macro question, Ajay.

02:12:50 What has made headlines is the fact that FPI ownership in Indian stocks is at maybe decadal lows or thereabouts,

02:12:57 and kind of is probably something that is very easy to deduce,

02:13:05 considering the fact that DIs have been the more active investors as well.

02:13:10 Would you brace your portfolio for better valued stocks, which may find a flip as well because of technical reasons of FII inflows coming in at some point of time if the EM inflows return?

02:13:26 I'm just trying to understand if there is a tactical play out there in the minds of a large DII investor.

02:13:34 So it is there at the back of the mind, but it's not, I would say, a significant part in the decision making,

02:13:40 because we should be and we are focused on what the growth opportunities are and what the market expectations are as we can infer from the stock prices.

02:13:53 So you can work back from the stock prices and try to figure out what is the imputed growth that the market is indicating in a particular stock.

02:14:03 Given the current stock price. So we try to assess that and then we try to see whether those growth expectations are likely to be met in our opinion or not.

02:14:16 And if you see that they are not likely to be met, then obviously we become cautious in those kind of stocks.

02:14:23 So on the FII itself, then there are too many moving parts because it's not only India, it's how the other markets are doing and what other opportunities they get.

02:14:36 So it's kind of a call for them on the other opportunities.

02:14:41 Most certainly Ajay. Sorry Ajay.

02:14:43 So that's the reason we don't focus too much on what their behavior could be.

02:14:48 Agree, agree completely. No, no, I didn't mean it that way. All I was saying was that, you know, the common belief is that because FIIs were so over owned in banks, right?

02:14:56 And the FII supplies leading to the kind of subdued performance in banks, despite the fact that their quarterly performances haven't been as bad.

02:15:04 In some cases, they've been pretty good too, for the larger ones at least.

02:15:07 So could that trigger moving, either the selling going away or fresh buying coming in when the buying returns be a factor that could serve as an add on to the fundamental performance for banks?

02:15:19 Are you invested in banks in a big way?

02:15:22 Yeah. So, I mean, we are invested in the banks in a big way, as I highlighted, that it is one of our sectors where we think that the growth versus valuation combination is the best.

02:15:32 So, purely by the very reason that the banking sector, the weightage is the highest in the market in any of the indices you look at, especially the large cap indices or even the BSE 200, NSE 200, even that kind of diversified indices.

02:15:51 Or even if you look at NSE 500 for that matter, the weightages are very high. So, any investor when he's selling, then perforce the banking sector will be the sector where the selling will be the maximum.

02:16:04 So, typically you will find that even in kind of NSE 500, the banking sector weightage is 30%. In a NIFTY, it might be a bit more.

02:16:15 So, if there is any selling, whether it is from foreigners or whether it is from domestic, the large portion will come in the banking sector.

02:16:24 So, that is something which one has to be cognizant of. But at the same time, it works in reverse as well.

02:16:31 When there is buying, then perforce you will have to take exposure to that. I mean, those are as far as the technical things are concerned.

02:16:40 So, we have all these things in our mind, but as I highlighted, it is not one of the critical decision factors because there are so many moving parts here.

02:16:50 And within that, I mean, it's not a homogeneous category. Even if you look at foreigners, there might be foreigners who have been invested in India for very long and they're sitting a lot of profits.

02:17:01 So, they might be booking profits, whereas some others might be new and getting in. So, they might have a different thought process.

02:17:08 And same goes for the DIAs and the individual funds which we manage. In certain funds, we might be balancing the sector positions.

02:17:17 In certain funds, we might be kind of having a profit booking. So, it's so many moving parts there.

02:17:24 If you try to figure out from that perspective, it gets very entangled. So, we don't usually go there.

02:17:31 Ajay, stay on. So much more to talk about. We'll take a quick break. Be back with more conversations around specific pockets.

02:17:38 Industrials is a thing to focus on. We try and do that on the other side.

02:17:42 [Music]

02:18:00 [Music]

02:18:10 [Music]

02:18:20 [Music]

02:18:30 [Music]

02:18:40 [Music]

02:18:50 [Music]

02:19:00 [Music]

02:19:10 [Music]

02:19:20 [Music]

02:19:30 [Music]

02:19:40 [Music]

02:19:50 [Music]

02:20:00 [Music]

02:20:10 [Music]

02:20:20 [Music]

02:20:30 [Music]

02:20:40 [Music]

02:20:54 Back with Talking Point in Guna Deshmukh, Ajay Argyl, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton.

02:20:59 And we spoke about industrials and consumers as the cases for the chat.

02:21:04 Consumption is interesting, Ajay. This whole recent data that has come in wherein the pattern of consumption has changed so dramatically for households at large India-wide.

02:21:13 Discretionary spend so much more than basic staples, etc. How are you positioned on the consumption end?

02:21:20 Are you at the upper end of the K-curve? Are you now betting on staples because they are maybe on a valuation-wise as cheap as they have been in the recent past?

02:21:28 How is it that you're playing this theme?

02:21:30 Yeah, so generally over the last many months we have been a bit underweight on the consumption side and especially the consumer staples.

02:21:41 So as you highlighted, there is a dichotomy and the mass market on the rural side, the consumption is more muted, whereas on the premium side and urban, the consumption is having a better growth.

02:21:58 So we still think that going forward that will be the case.

02:22:03 And we continue to remain substantially underweight on consumer staples because we have seen that even now most of the companies are having a lot of difficulty in having volume growth.

02:22:17 And especially the companies which cater to the mass market or more towards the rural markets.

02:22:23 And even when they are kind of cutting prices, the volume growth is not kind of improving, which means that maybe this will continue for maybe some more months.

02:22:38 So we are not positive at all on the consumer staples and this also needs to be doubted with the kind of valuations they have been trading at.

02:22:50 So in spite of quite a big slowdown in the growth, the valuations have not corrected anything meaningfully.

02:22:59 So that kind of makes our underweight position.

02:23:04 Whereas if you look at consumer discretionary, we have been positive on the pockets of it.

02:23:09 We had been positive on automobiles, which have already done well. So OEMs as well as certain auto ancillaries.

02:23:20 And then we have some positions in the online food ordering, which is part of the consumer discretionary.

02:23:29 So there we see that there is a decent growth both for the market as well as the market share gain from the other players in the food consumption,

02:23:43 whether it is from the restaurants or whether it is from some of the other QSRs.

02:23:48 So we are having substantial positions in those spaces.

02:23:54 So there are pockets in the consumption where we see that the growth is better.

02:24:00 And in some cases, the company's profitability is have improved and they've got back on the or rather got on the profitability path.

02:24:11 If you look at the online food delivery, which was earlier making a lot of investments and therefore not so profitable.

02:24:19 So these are some of the pockets where we see opportunities in the consumption space.

02:24:24 But generally mass market, we are still kind of cautious.

02:24:29 OK. The other thing is industrials. And I want to focus maybe not as much on just pure industrial,

02:24:34 but if I can qualify power as a part of that subset and has a phenomenal run, Ajay,

02:24:42 almost all forms of power related businesses, finance, equipment, ancillaries, etc.

02:24:49 But that space has some tall ambitions. India has tall ambitions as a country in power.

02:24:54 Are you still constructive here? Yeah. So we are constructive from the opportunity, from the long term perspective.

02:25:02 But as you have highlighted, these talks have done phenomenally well.

02:25:08 So which means that the kind of numbers you are showing, it shows that the expectations is very high in all these stocks.

02:25:16 So basically, the market participants are saying that they are very sanguine about the growth opportunities,

02:25:23 not even in I mean, not only in the near term, but maybe even a five year period.

02:25:28 They will have the kind of growth which they have not seen in the last three or five years.

02:25:34 Whereas this sector itself, we see that it requires a lot of investments.

02:25:44 It requires a lot of execution skills. There are many approvals required, which sometimes take a bit longer than anticipated.

02:25:54 Whereas if you look at the stock prices, in our opinion, a lot of them are kind of priced for perfection.

02:26:01 So they can still give you returns in line with growth if they are able to execute the opportunity which is there

02:26:13 and the expectations which are there on a very clinical basis. Basically, they executed perfectly.

02:26:19 Then they might be able to give you some returns. But whereas we think that that might be a difficult task to achieve.

02:26:26 So generally, we have participated in quite a few of them. But over the last few months, we have been trying to book some profits

02:26:36 because we think that the markets are really getting very, very optimistic on this side.

02:26:41 And one needs to be cautious, especially considering what they've already returned and considering that there might be

02:26:53 challenges in growth to the extent that the market is expecting. They may not be able to achieve that.

02:27:00 And that could lead to some correction in these stocks.

02:27:04 Got it. Ajay, so good talking to you today. Thanks for taking the time out and giving us your sense on a few key points.

02:27:10 Much appreciate your time. Thank you. Thank you, Neeraj. Thanks for having me.

02:27:14 The pleasure was ours. And viewers, thanks for tuning in to this edition of The Talking Point.

02:27:18 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:27:40 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:27:50 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:28:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:28:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:28:40 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:29:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:29:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:29:40 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:30:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:30:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:30:40 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:31:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:31:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:31:40 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:32:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:32:10 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:32:20 [MUSIC PLAYING]

02:32:34 Hello and welcome to the F&O Show. This is Neena Nalwala and Agam Bakir.

02:32:38 We both will take you through all the action in the F&O markets.

02:32:41 Agam, it is a relatively flat morning. We're eyeing expiry tomorrow, but no fireworks expected between now and then.

02:32:47 I guess not, but it doesn't mean that we may not have any volatility because the way things have panned out at the moment,

02:32:54 well, we do know that on an intraday basis yesterday, there were very, very sharp moves towards the upside as well as the downside.

02:33:03 And it's not very different today either. Well, the whole idea behind the fact that there could be consolidation,

02:33:11 it's not bereft of, well, very sharp gyrations in the middle. And that's exactly how things are panning out today as well.

02:33:19 Of course, today is not an expiry, but we are seeing some very sharp moves on the Nifty as well as the Sensex towards the red and the green.

02:33:28 and something that's going to...

Share Market Opening LIVE | Stock Market LIVE News | Business News | Nifty LIVE | Sensex LIVE News

Category

Transcript

Recommended