• 10 months ago
- How will 2024 pan out for Mutual Funds?
- What's the outlook on debt funds for this year?


Niraj Shah speaks to Edelweiss Mutual Fund's Radhika Gupta on 'The Mutual Fund Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00 The next 25 minutes we'll talk about the middle path with a shark
00:03 Now if that confused you let me try and simplify it for you our guest today is
00:10 Radhika Gupta of Edelweiss AMC. Can I call you Radhika Gupta of Edelweiss AMC?
00:16 So why did we why did why do you think I introduce you the way I did I don't know you know because I'm
00:25 Making an appearance on a show called shark tank. You suddenly think I'm shocking
00:28 You guys have known me so for so many years and I'm the last person to be shocking
00:33 No, but wouldn't investors in AMC schemes be happy that you know
00:38 As the saying goes bulls make money bears make money pigs get slaughtered
00:41 I would want my money to be with a shark as opposed to a very
00:45 Neither here nor there kind of kind of a mammal so it's great to be with a shark
00:52 Yeah, firstly, it's my personal money, but I say that each time no, but
00:56 Yes, I think it's an investor. You want your fund manager to be
00:59 Prudent and sensible and buy at the right price, which which I think is shocking
01:05 But sometimes you have this perception that sharky is also
01:08 Unfair to the other side, you know pushing someone to do something in a rush mean and that's not a very nice
01:16 I think finally investing is about partnering with
01:19 asset-managements whether in the context of funds or in the context of personal investing
01:23 So nothing should be a lose-lose deal because you know investing should be a bit of a win-win deal
01:30 But yes, you want your
01:32 Asset management professional to buy at the right price to be thoughtful all of that. So if that's shocking then all shocking for you
01:39 No, I also want the investment professional. I want to understand the thoughts of
01:44 the house
01:46 Which is managing my money and want to understand how what's the house view and try and see if my view aligns with that?
01:52 So I'm trying to ask Radhika Gupta today at this virtually at the start of the new calendar
01:57 About what does Radhika think is in store for?
02:00 2024 after what's arguably been a banner year for the broader end of the spectrum and a miserable year
02:06 For for the fixed income market. So to say so I think
02:11 2024 is a year of transitions. That's that that's what we call it
02:15 You're transitioning into a new interest rate regime
02:18 You had zero interest rates
02:20 Then you had hiked interest rates and now that regime is coming in to an end. You have elections in
02:27 two major economies
02:29 One of which is India. So I think you have a couple of these transitions that were that are happening. I agree 2023
02:37 Was a phenomenal year for the equity markets
02:40 But if you look at the forecast that happened in 2022 at the end of 2022 most most people said we won't make money in
02:46 23 we were worried about you know a hard landing in the US
02:50 We were worried about so many things and I think for me
02:52 2023 is a year that tells you that momentum turns in markets and no one can really predict how sharply
02:58 Momentum can turn but 2024 really should be a year of more muted expectations
03:06 My biggest worry going into this year is the kind of expectations that people have when I talk to
03:13 especially ordinary investors
03:15 I mean, they're whacked someone came and told me
03:18 Invest in a micro cap fund rose other percent Malaga and then I get not and then I get nervous
03:23 Okay. Okay. Okay, so so
03:26 You are not saying that
03:29 Let's divide let's give it this up into two
03:32 We'll talk about fixed income and other asset classes on the other side of the break in this side of the break
03:36 Let's talk about equity because that's that's what we starting off with you are saying that it's not that
03:42 You expect equity markets to do badly and thereby equity funds to do badly
03:47 Not at all saying don't expect the sky what you'd probably end up getting is the clouds and you should be happy with that
03:52 Yeah
03:53 because if you look at the context of last year see
03:55 India has had a period where earnings in the last decade were a little bit like
04:00 Rakhi and Karan Arjun you kept saying it then I engage it
04:03 And then ever showed up and then you know in the last few years
04:07 Especially post covid what you're seeing is an earnings rebound and you're seeing double-digit earnings growth and all of that was happening
04:13 Now in early 2023 when people were asking me the same question about equities
04:17 Including about small caps and mid caps, which were the story of last year. I said don't panic
04:23 We may look okay from a valuations point of view, but we're very early in the earning cycle
04:28 And I think that's what you started to see
04:30 Companies are delivering the numbers and companies are delivering the numbers across the board now that
04:36 Okay in the valuation cycle is stretched to a little price here on the valuation cycle
04:42 Fundamentally companies are doing well. The economy is expanding across
04:47 Manufacturing across financial services across most segments of the economy you are seeing earnings contribution
04:54 But it's important to moderate expectations because remember last year you had mid cap and small cap funds deliver 20 to 40 percent
05:00 And that isn't an outcome you're going to have every year
05:04 So every year, you know not being same moderate expectations doesn't mean equity markets are going to do badly
05:11 It literally means the middle part
05:13 Could it also be a year? I mean wherein it typically when the index has such a
05:19 Flourishing move not every fund is able to outperform the benchmark and we've seen instances of that in the last calendar, too
05:27 Could it happen that the index by itself is a lot more sedate as you said
05:32 but because individual pockets could have gains and therefore it don't actually be for an opportunity for fund managers to be able to
05:39 Outperform the index especially in flexi caps slash multi caps last mid caps. That's not small cap categories
05:46 I think it is more of a stock picking year
05:48 And you know these these periods happen
05:52 I remember when I joined the industry in 17 me Raj everyone was writing off large cap funds saying there's no alpha left
05:58 I mean, I remember this story now if you look at last year large cap funds have done super well versus the index most large
06:06 Cap funds have meaningfully beaten the index or done something mid cap funds
06:10 by the way
06:11 have trailed indices in some part because of the kind of names that have contributed to the mid cap rally or
06:17 Small cap funds for instance
06:19 So these things are more hard to figure out if you have a more muted year or a more normal year for medium small cap growth
06:26 By the way, you will see alpha starting to come back and that's true of large cap as well
06:31 These things are very difficult to predict most certainly but what might be easy to predict
06:35 I'm just trying to understand if you believe in the same way as well because most of your peers who've come to me
06:41 On whether the CEO side or the CEO side are all of the opinion that you know, it's the year of the large caps
06:47 Versus the mid caps and the small caps and sometimes what worries me is consensus
06:51 So my view is a little different from the consensus trade and I'll tell you why I think we need to
06:57 Look at the fact that the structure of India's market has changed, you know, we grew up
07:02 So if you went back 25 years in India's history, the average size of a large cap company was about three or thousand crores
07:09 Today a large cap amid by the way today a small cap company has an average size of twelve thirteen thousand crores
07:15 A mid cap is thirty eight thousand crores large caps are in lakhs of crores
07:18 Our kids have grown up in some sense
07:21 So the perception of what mid and small cap were twenty years ago or even ten years ago has meaningfully changed
07:28 In fact the way mid caps interact with the market in terms of earnings calls governance. All of that has changed
07:34 I also think that if you need participation in India's economy over the next ten years
07:39 A pure play large cap approach doesn't work because large cap is tech energy and financial services
07:46 These are very concentrated in disease
07:48 If you want a China plus one team if you want a chemicals team if you want a capital goods team
07:54 If you want a capital markets team, I mean, I am hopefully in a good industry
07:57 Then these plays are in mid and small cap
08:00 So I think the approach to the year and I you know
08:04 One of the mistakes that we make in the context of mutual funds is try to do this
08:08 What's the approach for the year with where we are in India?
08:11 We should really think decade L not individually and I think the decade L story is a multi cap story
08:18 I'm not even saying flexi cap by the way
08:20 There is a nuance there because flexi cap tends to be about 70% large cap the definition
08:25 Not by definition, but by benchmark and therefore by outcome
08:29 So there is a difference people think flexi and multi is the same but flexi if you look at the benchmark
08:34 It's NSE 500 and so most funds end up being close to their multi is more
08:39 I mean like when we think of a multi cap fund, it's 40 30 30 something like that 40 large 30 mid 30 small
08:44 I think that's a much more accurate reflection of where India will be over the next 10 years and I get very worried
08:52 The reason I'm away from this consensus trade is I get very worried with this today large cap tomorrow small cap this for an
08:58 Ordinary investor you get the timing terribly wrong and you end up paying a lot of taxes and fees in the churn
09:04 Which is not something most of us like to do. I'm a big fan of
09:07 Bundled solutions and that's why I think multi cap the middle path
09:12 Multi-cap so, okay some would argue that
09:15 Multi an exposure to a multi cap fund which has had a great year by the way
09:22 But an exposure to multi cap fund would mean that my fund manager or the fund house is
09:27 A lot more constructive on returns from the broader end of the spectrum than others
09:33 And yet we are of course talking about how maybe just for 2024
09:37 I know equities are a long-term game, but for 2024 large caps might do better. So where is the dichotomy here?
09:41 So firstly multi cap funds have a little bit of flexibility building it could be 50 20 20 25 25 large mid small
09:48 It could be 40 30 30. So there is a little bit of that leeway
09:52 Now, I don't know if large caps are going to outperform mid caps and small caps in 2024
09:58 What I'm saying is I don't want to make a decision for an investor based on
10:02 2024 because I firmly believe equity investing can never be about a year or even three years and in today when India sitting it has
10:09 To be decade. It has to be at least five years to be judged by what your fund performs
10:15 Sadly, yes, I will in 2024 relative to others relative to benchmark. I will I will talk
10:20 I'll get over there and look we all offer a wide basket of funds. I offer a mid cap fund
10:26 I offer a small cap fund and I offer a pure play large cap fund
10:29 So finally investors will make decisions based on what their advisor tells them based on their own market view and based on their own
10:36 sense of asset allocation
10:38 But as someone who runs an asset management company, if you would ask me where I put my fresh money
10:43 That's the answer I can give you a multi cap a multi cap fund
10:46 Okay, which also means that you don't believe that it'll be a year wherein yes middle part average returns
10:52 But it's also a year wherein mid caps and small caps need not
10:55 Necessarily have a poor year not necessarily because earnings growth is finally supporting and I really think you can't
11:03 Have a bulk of capital in a category, which is 40% one sector, which is financial services
11:08 in which case a recap and
11:11 Hand on heart. I'm just trying to understand before we take that break a large cap fund
11:16 You know and the SPV scorecard is out there for everybody's to the I mean, you know, listen
11:20 We can debate all we want but the fact remains that a large portion of the industry is not able to outperform the benchmark
11:25 right if flexi cap is 70%
11:27 let's say large caps anyways, and if I want a large cap bias would a flexi cap fund be a better option and
11:33 Con and and and then join to that is that if I as an investor believe as well because I also have my beliefs
11:40 I like to have my opinions while I trust my money with a mutual fund that if I believe that no
11:45 That's not necessarily the case. I'll go with a multi cap fund
11:48 Why bother with a large cap fund?
11:50 Which is anyways not been able to even beat the benchmark if I really want that large cap performance
11:55 I'll put it in an exchange
11:57 Answers if you want a large cap fund if you want to be a tad aggressive as I said
12:02 My multi cap option is the right one
12:04 If you don't want to be I don't think the alternative is flexi cap fund
12:08 This is going to sound very counter
12:10 But let me explain I think the alternative is a balanced advantage or aggressive hybrid fund
12:15 If you look at an aggressive hybrid fund that's 75% equity 25% debt
12:20 The long-term performance of that is going to be the same as large cap funds with 75% equity exposure. So personally I
12:27 Do my large cap allocation?
12:30 Despite having a large cap fund with either balanced advantage or hybrid funds because I get the same outcome
12:36 But at least with lower risk and that's worth it
12:40 Yeah, and that's that's overlooked so much people don't understand risk adjustment returns person, but this is fabulous. Thank you
12:46 Thank you for so much so many great insights in this first half of the conversation. Stay tuned. Stay on Radhika viewers
12:51 Stay tuned. We'll slip into a quick break
12:53 We've discussed equities and nozzle and thought I I think I got some
12:58 really cool answers in the in this segment from an equity investors or
13:03 Seeker of what to do with equities perspective. We'll come back and try and talk beyond equity funds as well. Stay tuned
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15:42 - Back on the Mutual Fund Show
15:49 with the CEO of Edelweiss Asset Management, Radhika Gupta.
15:52 I chose my words carefully.
15:54 - There you go.
15:55 - No, okay.
15:56 So great first segment.
15:58 Thanks for the equity view.
16:00 Now let's talk about beyond that.
16:03 Now we've done some macro conversations
16:06 on the channel thus far.
16:08 There's been this overarching view
16:10 that rates predominantly in the US,
16:13 even in India, will come off.
16:15 And by virtue of just that alone,
16:18 it makes bonds a reasonably attractive place even now,
16:21 because not everything is discounted.
16:22 I would love to understand
16:24 how does one approach fixed income investing
16:28 via mutual funds in the current calendar,
16:30 not just for 12 months, maybe for 18,
16:31 maybe for 24 months, whatever it is.
16:33 - So I run the largest book of long-term bond products
16:37 in mutual funds in India
16:39 by virtue of target maturity funds in Bharatwan.
16:42 And it's reasonable to believe that yields will come down
16:47 and you will make money by holding long duration,
16:51 fixed income, and there are lots of those products.
16:54 I also, despite being the largest holder,
16:56 so I like the target maturity structure.
16:59 I've always liked it because the timing is taken care.
17:03 I do believe that people do a slightly poor job
17:07 of timing when to enter long duration mutual funds,
17:10 not the target maturity kinds,
17:12 but the gilt funds, et cetera.
17:14 They enter them at the wrong time,
17:15 they don't exit them, and they have a patchy experience.
17:19 So if you are a sophisticated fixed income investor
17:22 and by all means know how to do this, go ahead and do that.
17:25 Now you have to remember there was a very significant event
17:28 in the debt fund world in 2023,
17:30 which was called tax change in March.
17:32 Now we can debate whether it's good or bad, but it's done.
17:35 I think if you have to play fixed income today,
17:38 if you're making 7%, 8% return,
17:40 you're giving away 1/3 in tax.
17:42 The better way to do this is through a hybrid fund,
17:45 and I think we are seeing that already.
17:47 Now whether it is WAFs, equity savings funds,
17:50 aggressive hybrid funds, multi-asset funds,
17:53 all these constructs are a far more tax efficient way
17:58 to address the debt fund allocation problem.
18:01 So again, if you come back to my favorite 75/25 category,
18:05 let's say Neeraj, you really believed in debt,
18:07 and I do believe people's portfolios should have
18:09 a meaningful amount of debt,
18:12 it might be just more tax efficient to do it in 75/25
18:16 as a one pot kichadi meal,
18:18 rather than eat dal and rice separately.
18:21 So I think that's the story for debt fund investors.
18:23 Don't ignore debt in 2024.
18:26 Very high temptation to do so
18:27 because equities had such a great year.
18:29 These days if I go talk about debt,
18:30 people are like, "What debt?
18:32 "Why hybrid funds?"
18:33 Don't ignore debt.
18:34 If you're sophisticated and know how to play
18:36 the rate timing game, by all means do it.
18:39 Otherwise, hybrid funds are a great tax efficient answer
18:42 for most of us.
18:43 - So in effect, for an average retail investor
18:46 who may not know the exact time to enter and exit,
18:50 most people don't, but let's assume
18:52 an average retail investor definitely doesn't,
18:54 then just avoid that route.
18:56 Choose-- - And just do a hybrid fund.
18:58 - Do a hybrid fund. - And just decide,
19:00 I want to do 75 equity, 25 debt.
19:02 Do it in a fund that has 75 equity, 25 debt.
19:06 I mean, we all work very hard,
19:07 and if there's a more tax efficient solution,
19:10 it's good for everybody.
19:11 And I think people don't realize the range
19:13 of hybrid products that are available today.
19:15 Like there's a construct called equity savings
19:18 that's only 35 equity, 65 fixed income, and arbitrage.
19:22 That's a great product if you want to be conservative.
19:25 There's balanced advantages, there's 65, 35.
19:28 There's a 75, 25.
19:29 So you pick your answer, but do it in a one pot meal.
19:33 - Got it.
19:34 And these bifurcations, if I can use that term,
19:40 you would say are constant across fund houses,
19:42 if you will? - Broadly.
19:43 I think these three categories, equity savings,
19:45 which is broadly 20 to 30% equity,
19:48 the rest safe instruments.
19:50 Balanced advantage, which is on average 50, 60 equity,
19:53 it's variable, balanced debt.
19:54 And aggressive hybrid, which is 75 equity, 25 debt.
19:58 This is very constant across fund houses.
20:01 - And then the tax advantages or the tax treatment
20:03 would be similar-- - All of these
20:04 are equity taxation products. - Equity taxation products.
20:05 - All of these are equity taxation.
20:06 And I picked these three categories in particular
20:09 because they are consistent across fund houses
20:12 and they don't have disputed taxation.
20:14 They all have equity taxation.
20:16 If you're looking to allocate short-term debt capital,
20:19 like three month capital, the most tax efficient category
20:22 today is called the arbitrage fund.
20:23 - Precisely, I was gonna ask you that as well.
20:25 But just before I come to arbitrage,
20:27 the advantage that an investor would have
20:29 when she or he chooses these funds
20:33 is that she doesn't have to think about
20:35 whether the maturity of my money
20:39 is tying with the maturity of the portfolio
20:41 of the fund or no, and all that research
20:43 doesn't need to be done.
20:43 - And all that research, because most people in India
20:46 understand equities.
20:47 Unfortunately, our understanding of fixed income
20:51 is extremely patchy, and I'm just being
20:53 a little bit of a realist here.
20:55 - Yeah, agreed, agreed.
20:57 So, no, no, and this is very helpful.
20:59 Now, arbitrage funds. - Yes.
21:00 - And I think there are a couple of advisors
21:03 who I talk to have said that if you want,
21:05 for example, that you have to make a tax payment
21:08 in September, or you have to make something else,
21:10 or you want to buy something,
21:12 instead of choosing other products,
21:13 choose arbitrage funds as the short-term answer
21:17 to saving, you concur there?
21:19 You believe that's the answer?
21:20 - I do, as long as you have money
21:21 that's greater than a month.
21:22 So this is not a liquid fund.
21:23 This is not like I have to make a payment
21:25 in three days, I'm gonna do in and out,
21:26 because that is expensive.
21:28 But if you have money in the one month plus two,
21:31 especially three year kind of bracket,
21:34 this is super efficient, because remember,
21:36 your taxation is equity taxation.
21:39 Under one year, it's 15%.
21:41 Over one year, it is 10%.
21:44 So that's very efficient.
21:45 What an arbitrage fund does is it puts 35% of its capital
21:48 into fixed income kind of instruments.
21:51 The other 65% is equity for the sake of taxation,
21:54 but it's perfectly hedged equity.
21:55 So I buy X stock, I sell X stock in the same quantity.
21:59 Very good construct.
22:01 I've been parking personal contingency money
22:03 in arbitrage funds for six, seven years now.
22:05 - Got it.
22:06 And the results have been fabulous.
22:07 - The results have been great.
22:08 Again, don't get agitated with one month higher return.
22:11 Try to have a longer term view on everything in life also.
22:15 - In life also, okay.
22:16 Radhika, what has,
22:18 okay, just one question on multi-asset funds
22:24 and then I'll get to this.
22:25 I don't know whether you have it under the investment fund,
22:28 but what kind of investors would a multi-asset fund
22:31 be best suited for?
22:32 The completely risk averse ones
22:33 or the ones which want bifurcation?
22:35 - Okay, so I have a multi-asset fund.
22:37 Mine is the most conservative multi-asset fund
22:40 in the industry because it's income oriented.
22:43 The problem with multi-asset funds
22:45 is the reason I can't give you this answer
22:46 is the industry has 40 fund houses
22:49 and 20 versions of multi-asset funds.
22:51 So I can't give you,
22:53 and each, many of them have different taxation treatments.
22:56 So some of them are equity taxation.
22:58 Some of them are the erstwhile debt taxation.
23:01 So you really have to check what it is
23:04 about your multi-asset fund.
23:06 - What about yours?
23:07 - So ours is an income oriented product.
23:09 So it's a conservative product.
23:11 So it's equity, fully hedged.
23:15 It's gold hedged and it's fixed income hedged.
23:18 So our alternative is to get a better solution to arbitrage.
23:22 But not all industry products are like that.
23:25 - Got it, okay.
23:27 - So then with multi-asset,
23:28 you actually have to do fund wise research.
23:31 - Okay, and if you can't do that,
23:32 please get an advisor.
23:33 - Yes, please get an advisor.
23:35 - Okay, Radhika, last couple of minutes left on the show.
23:37 What has surprised you the most
23:40 from a mutual fund investing person,
23:41 because this is a mutual fund show, about 2023.
23:44 And what is it that you're watching out for the most
23:48 as a mutual fund investor in 2024?
23:51 - So I think the SIP book of the industry
23:53 continues to surprise me in a positive way
23:56 and the stability of it.
23:57 I remember when I joined the industry in 2017,
24:00 the SIP book was 4,000 crores.
24:03 And everyone would always say,
24:05 oh, there'll be a correction, this will moderate.
24:07 And it structurally seems to be going up.
24:09 And I think, you know, you mentioned Shark Tank.
24:12 SIPs have become a little bit of a meme.
24:13 I think I did this poll on a Shark Tank set.
24:16 How many of you know what a mutual fund is?
24:18 Just with some crew members and all.
24:20 Probably 50, 60% people raised their hand.
24:22 How many of you know what an SIP is?
24:24 90% of people raised their hand.
24:26 So I think the popularity of SIPs
24:28 continues to surprise me very, very positively.
24:31 And I think that's a structural trend.
24:33 In fact, I have this bold belief
24:35 that India will have a 35,000 crore SIP book in five years.
24:38 And, you know, for those who think it's bold,
24:41 five years ago, we were at 4,000 crores.
24:43 So just imagine what that's gonna do to our capital markets.
24:47 What was the second question?
24:48 - The second question is,
24:49 what are you watching out for the most
24:51 when it comes to 2024 as a mutual fund investor?
24:54 - So what I'm watching out for the most
24:56 is actually behavior of people,
24:58 because obviously a lot of capital
25:00 has gone into chasing things, as it always does,
25:03 which are volatile,
25:04 and where past performance has been exceptional.
25:06 Not just mid-cap.
25:08 Mid-cap, I don't even worry about so much
25:09 because it's the next 150 companies.
25:11 I mean, they're not even mid-cap, in my opinion.
25:13 Small cap, micro cap, these themes,
25:16 these kind of things tend to worry me,
25:18 because I think we're at a phase in India
25:20 where a lot of new money is coming into markets,
25:23 and it has to have a good experience.
25:25 So I just worry about products
25:27 where expectations are very short-term
25:29 and expectations are very lofty,
25:31 and that's what I'd be watching out for.
25:33 - Okay, well, Radhika Gupta, give us a sneak peek, 30 seconds.
25:38 What should one expect from a judge
25:42 who is investing money in startups?
25:46 - Some of the straightforwardness
25:50 of an investment professional
25:52 who likes sustainable businesses
25:55 with sensible business models,
25:57 and who's selective about investments.
25:59 You can't take the investment professional
26:01 out of the individual,
26:04 but also, hopefully, the empathy of someone
26:06 who appreciates stories
26:08 and who's been an entrepreneur herself.
26:10 - Exactly, I was gonna say that.
26:11 Somebody who's had startup in her blood.
26:15 - Run one startup and build it.
26:16 Edelweiss Mutual Fund is also a startup.
26:18 It's a very small company.
26:19 - As the youngest CEO of an AMC.
26:23 Kudos, great.
26:24 Radhika, at some point of time in the year,
26:26 we'll try and do a show around
26:27 how to have more women investors into mutual funds.
26:31 - We should.
26:32 - We should, we should do that for sure.
26:33 So that's an appointment that I'm booking with you
26:34 sometime in the next one to three months.
26:36 - We should.
26:37 - But thank you for joining us at the start of this calendar,
26:40 at the start of our channel as well.
26:42 Lovely having you.
26:43 - Wish your channel good luck
26:44 and wish all of you a very happy new year.
26:46 - To you as well.
26:47 Thank you for joining in today.
26:49 And viewers, thanks for tuning in
26:50 to yet another episode of The Mutual Fund Show.
26:52 (upbeat music)
26:55 (upbeat music)
26:57 you

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