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- Global news flow & cues - Stocks to watch, trade setup - F&O strategies   Niraj Shah, Tamanna Inamdar and Samina Nalwala bring all this and more as we head toward the 'India Market Open.'

Transcript

00:00:00Thank you for watching.

00:00:30A very good morning.

00:00:41It's Friday morning.

00:00:42You're watching India Market Open.

00:00:43We've had a volatile week and it seems like there could be a little bit of Friday cheer

00:00:46coming on the street, despite the fact that global queues aren't too supportive this morning.

00:00:50They're at the flat.

00:00:51So nothing much to take home from, but a big trigger in form of the non-farm payroll data

00:00:56from the US later today.

00:00:57Yeah.

00:00:58I mean, firstly to both of you, very good morning and to all our viewers who are our

00:01:04Jain friends in advance, and to everybody who is celebrating Lord Ganesha's arrival,

00:01:11happy Ganesh Chaturthi.

00:01:12It's going to be a busy weekend.

00:01:13Yes.

00:01:14It's going to be a beautiful weekend.

00:01:15You know why this is also a very exciting time of the year?

00:01:18Because it's heralding the festive season, starting from now all the way to 31st December.

00:01:24It's the best time of the year.

00:01:28The fun stuff.

00:01:29The fun stuff begins.

00:01:31So not a lot of fun stuff on the US markets though, to be honest.

00:01:35Yes, the big non-farm payroll government data comes out tomorrow, but a private payroll

00:01:41data gauge, which has come out a day earlier.

00:01:45By tomorrow, I mean tonight, actually India time, you'll see the official non-farm payroll

00:01:49data.

00:01:50The ADP data, which is a private payroll provider also has put out data, which is not exciting

00:01:56at all.

00:01:57And markets have seen this as negative.

00:02:00So if you look at how US markets have closed, they've closed in the negative largely, future

00:02:05is also pretty much not too exciting.

00:02:09So this is what the ADP data is showing you.

00:02:12NASDAQ was flat, Dow was down, S&P 500 was also down, Dow down about 200 points.

00:02:18So the ADP data has come in at 99,000 hires in August.

00:02:23It basically looks at how much hiring has taken place.

00:02:27It's the lowest level since 2021.

00:02:30The growth in jobs is the lowest since 2021.

00:02:34The expectation was you would see about 140,000 jobs and hires being created in the month

00:02:40of August.

00:02:41So is this an inkling to what we will see with the official government backed data is

00:02:45the question.

00:02:47There has been a bit of a negative sentiment and once more these concerns about whether

00:02:51the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates, which they are likely to do in September.

00:02:56Bond deals also in tandem, not too much change, pretty much range bound and the tenure at

00:03:013.72.

00:03:02Crude is an interesting story.

00:03:05OPEC plus has finally said that they're putting off their increase in output.

00:03:10The reason is because of the kind of drop in prices that they saw.

00:03:13Remember for a lot of these countries to get their own balance sheets in place, they

00:03:17need crude to be above the $85 mark, Brent to be above the $85 mark, they're of course

00:03:22very far away from that right now.

00:03:24So they've postponed that bit.

00:03:27But on the other side, demand concerns still continue.

00:03:31So which is why you've seen Brent just about that $73 mark even now.

00:03:36I'll quickly pull up Asia and see what the Asia Open looks like.

00:03:41Not half bad.

00:03:42I would say flat to positive at the most.

00:03:45Nifty India implied open, we'll take a quick look at that as well.

00:03:49That's showing about 61 points down.

00:03:52And so that's setting up kind of a mixed day to a pretty tough week at the end of it in

00:03:57terms of spotting where the direction is.

00:03:59Just one quick one I want to comment on.

00:04:01Up until two weeks ago, there was a 90% chance of a Fed moving with a 25 basis point rate

00:04:06cut.

00:04:07We eventually got to 99% of the market believing that.

00:04:10If you look at some data, especially in the gold market, those chances have changed in

00:04:18some ways.

00:04:19So now I believe there are traders who are betting on a 59% 25 basis point rate cut and

00:04:23a 41% of a supersized 50 bps rate cut.

00:04:27Now I guess if that does happen and if data is weakening, we may be getting more than

00:04:32anticipated, which hopefully could cheer markets, even though I know Citi doesn't think that

00:04:36may be great for India in the short term.

00:04:38Yeah, maybe we'll talk about that as well.

00:04:41But just before we go to Matt Orton, the other small piece of news, or maybe actually a big

00:04:45piece of news from a China perspective, China has created a behemoth to take on Wall Street

00:04:51banks.

00:04:52$230 billion brokerage firm by a mixture of two firms who are overtaking Citi as the largest

00:04:58investment bank in the country.

00:05:00They are saying that in 2035, Chinese banks should be able to take Wall Street giants.

00:05:04Slipping a 10-year game.

00:05:05Quite something.

00:05:06And just also I think Hong Kong is closed today, so you've got a holiday in that market

00:05:10and I think Japan's data as well has been slightly disappointing.

00:05:13So not a great Friday morning for Asian markets at least, but lower crude could be good for

00:05:18us.

00:05:19Yeah, absolutely.

00:05:20Let's get Matt Orton in on this.

00:05:21He is Head of Advisory Solutions and Marketing and Market Strategy, also the Chief Market

00:05:26Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management.

00:05:29I hope I got all of that correct, Matt, but either way, very good morning to you from

00:05:33where we are and great to speak with you as always.

00:05:37Let's just get your take on the private payroll data which has come in and of course, the

00:05:42whole anticipation for what the non-farm payroll data is going to look like in August.

00:05:48What is the kind of range you're expecting and then what would that mean to how the rate

00:05:52cut scenario is being strategized?

00:05:55Hi, good morning and it's great to see you and to be back.

00:06:00I think that the private payroll data versus the non-farm payroll data, it's always hard

00:06:05to determine how one correlates to the other because when you look back at most of the

00:06:11data points, it's very noisy between ADP and NFP.

00:06:14So I'm not sure how much we can or should draw from what ADP was today versus what we're

00:06:20going to get tomorrow morning in the US from non-farm payrolls.

00:06:24That being said, the market is entirely focused on what that number is and I think the main

00:06:29message that I give is we're in the mode where good news is good news, bad news isn't

00:06:34back bad news.

00:06:35So I think if there is significant weakness or significantly disappointing numbers that

00:06:41we get in the morning, I think that will increase the likelihood that you do see a larger than

00:06:47expected rate cut right now in September.

00:06:49So my base case is for 25 basis points, I still think the economy is in good shape.

00:06:55Overall, you're not seeing intentions for larger layoffs and you usually don't see that

00:07:00when corporate profit margins are sitting at the levels that they are.

00:07:03Small business optimism is starting to improve here in the US too.

00:07:07So there's still a lot of positives to take from this.

00:07:10But certainly seeing a weak number after a surprisingly weak number from the month of

00:07:14July, that certainly puts up, I'd say, our fear flags just a little bit.

00:07:20But I still think earnings have been good and I would still encourage clients if you

00:07:24do get significant downside to use it opportunistically in high quality pockets of the market.

00:07:30How likely is a US recession at this stage?

00:07:35I do not think we're going to have a recession.

00:07:38I think it's clear that economic growth is slow.

00:07:41We all know that economic growth is slowing.

00:07:43I don't think based on the totality of the data that we have right now and based on what

00:07:49I'm hearing from corporate management teams and what their capital allocation plans are,

00:07:54I just don't see that happening, especially given where fixed business investment is,

00:07:59CapEx, is in this country.

00:08:01So the AI theme has definitely helped.

00:08:04Infrastructure spending in this country has certainly helped.

00:08:07Bringing supply chains back to the US is and is going to continue helping.

00:08:11So it's hard to see a full blown recession.

00:08:14I do think what we have seen, though, is this idea of rolling recession.

00:08:19Different sectors and industries of the economy have moved in and out of recession over the past

00:08:24two years.

00:08:25We just haven't seen it all happen at the same time.

00:08:28And I think that is because of the distortive impacts of monetary policy.

00:08:32And so the likelihood of seeing that unified slowdown across most pockets of the economy,

00:08:39I still think that's fairly low probability.

00:08:42Matt, so do you reckon that between the nonfarm payroll data release and the Fed action on the

00:08:5218th, risk assets could take a decisive opinion and make a decisive move?

00:08:59Or will they wait for the cat to be out of the bag?

00:09:03I think risk markets are going to oscillate up and down.

00:09:06I think we're going to see increased volatility heading into the actual Fed meeting.

00:09:10Even if the data we get tomorrow is conclusively bad or conclusively good, I think that will

00:09:15inspire a larger one day move in the market.

00:09:18But it probably gets reversed through trading and a lot of other data points that we're going

00:09:23to get between now and then.

00:09:25The market is very hyper focused.

00:09:27We also have a presidential debate that's going to take place.

00:09:30And so there's a lot of election noise that I think might also cause investors to be a

00:09:36little bit hesitant about putting money to work until we really hear what the Fed says.

00:09:41And so I think the most important takeaway when we look forward to the Fed's meeting

00:09:46in September is their summary of economic projections.

00:09:49How much is the Fed going to change their outlook for the economy going forward?

00:09:54Because I think that's going to dictate both the pace and the depth of the rate cutting

00:09:59cycle.

00:10:00And that ultimately is what the market's going to focus on.

00:10:02That's what it's going to do.

00:10:04The market's going to focus on.

00:10:05That's what's going to drive interest rates.

00:10:07And then as a second order of effect, help guide some of those more rate sensitive pockets

00:10:12in the market and also maybe give us something to hold on to if you're investing in more

00:10:16cyclical areas.

00:10:17But again, I think what I encourage investors to focus on is this is why you want to have

00:10:23a diversified portfolio.

00:10:25And this is why you want to own higher quality companies where you're already generating

00:10:29free cash flow, where you've had a positive inflection with respect to earnings growth.

00:10:34And there's durable secular growth trends behind it, because regardless of what happens

00:10:39to the economy, those businesses are going to weather any storm well.

00:10:43And they can also grow and are levered to more positive growth that we might see, too.

00:10:48So that's I think the main takeaway from all of this.

00:10:51Matt, just one point on FII flows in India.

00:10:55And there's a city note out this morning which says that perhaps post the rate cut

00:11:01FII flows may not come into India the way it has been anticipated.

00:11:04Just wanted to know your take and how the emerging market in India scenario will be

00:11:11viewed post a rate cut in both cases, a 25 basis points or a 50 basis points.

00:11:17So I think you've got to look at the short term versus the long term.

00:11:19I think in the short term, you might see FII flows start to slow down just because of the

00:11:24opportunity set that you might have at home versus India.

00:11:28But I think heading into the end of the year, you know, we've talked about this before.

00:11:33I'm very optimistic on the Indian outlook going forward.

00:11:37And I think investors as well, especially if we do get great cuts, that's going to weaken

00:11:43the dollar relative to other currencies.

00:11:45And that net net is positive for emerging markets, which are largely under owned by

00:11:51a lot of the institutional clients and large brokerage firms I talked to here in the US

00:11:56and abroad.

00:11:57And so I think if you see that, you're going to see more of a rotation.

00:12:01India benefits from that, from an increasing weight, hesitancy to invest in China.

00:12:06And the fact that India really is the global growth story, where else are you going to

00:12:11find seven plus percent GDP growth going forward with good private sector earnings growth?

00:12:18It's in India.

00:12:19And that's one of the only games in town in the emerging markets where I think investors

00:12:23have a lot of confidence.

00:12:24So I think there's still a very good story longer term.

00:12:28Thank you very much, Matt.

00:12:29Great chatting with you.

00:12:30Have a good Friday and have a great weekend ahead.

00:12:33You too.

00:12:34Thank you.

00:12:34Thank you very much.

00:12:35Implied nifty is indicating to a muted start this morning.

00:12:3960 point cut is what we're working with, at least in early minutes of trade.

00:12:43It will be about stock specific action.

00:12:45And that's largely what the markets would like to focus on before we set you up for

00:12:49trade this morning.

00:12:49A quick recap of what happened yesterday.

00:12:52The nifty escalated in 150 point range on the weekly expiry day, which was yesterday.

00:12:58It has ended lower in trade despite a positive start yesterday.

00:13:02Now, we had a positive start irrespective of how global markets did.

00:13:06So we defied global cues, opened higher, but finally went home with cuts towards the close

00:13:11of trade on Wednesday and Thursday.

00:13:13Nifty did make an attempt to test 25,300, but it has failed on both instances.

00:13:19Remember, that becomes an important resistance for the nifty to take out to head towards

00:13:24levels of 25,500.

00:13:26Closure on days low is usually a negative for bulls.

00:13:30So markets are not going to be too impressed or rather were not too impressed as we go

00:13:35into trade this morning.

00:13:36RIL led losses amongst the nifty 50 despite a bonus issue.

00:13:40You had buying that was seen sporadically in stocks like HDFC, ITC and Wipro that helped

00:13:46and negated the cuts that stocks like RIL witnessed.

00:13:50For the week, we are down 90 points as of yesterday.

00:13:53But also what has stood out is while buying nifty has been a slow mover, it's actually

00:13:58outperformed the nifty up 0.2% between Monday and Thursday.

00:14:03But if we do end lower today, it could be the first weekly loss, Neerajan Tamanna, in

00:14:08over four weeks for the nifty.

00:14:09And it seems like that could be a possibility with at least what we're getting in terms

00:14:13of early cues.

00:14:14Perhaps, but I don't know if it will be too negative in the broader picture to have a

00:14:19bit of a cool off in this market.

00:14:21I mean, fund flows though have overall not been that bad.

00:14:25If you look at it, I just pull up yesterday's fund flows.

00:14:28And yeah, you have foreign investors selling about 689 crores.

00:14:33But there have been no massive outflows so far from FIIs.

00:14:37DIs, of course, have stayed steady 2,971 crores in buys.

00:14:43I think the big question though, Neerajan, I don't know what your take on this is, is

00:14:48what is the overall strategy or there's no clear picture in which stocks, which sectors

00:14:54or where the momentum goes.

00:14:56It's very individualized, isn't it?

00:14:58Yeah.

00:14:58And maybe IT is finding favour with brokerages.

00:15:01So maybe that one for today.

00:15:02But outside of that, almost everything that has promised has done well.

00:15:06So who knows?

00:15:07If you're going to be volatile because of global queues, you would imagine IT would

00:15:12be on the sell side, no?

00:15:14Between now and the elections, at least.

00:15:16But a rate easing cycle typically should augur well for tech by and large.

00:15:19So if you're a bull, you'll find your reason.

00:15:21If you're a bear, you'll find your reason.

00:15:22Exactly, exactly.

00:15:23Yeah.

00:15:23But, you know, it's an interesting point that both Samin and Tamil Nadu make.

00:15:26And that's a part of the trade setup, because if you look at call writing in the last five

00:15:30sessions, that has been very intense on the Nifty.

00:15:34And hence, there has been a bit of a downward pressure that is there.

00:15:37But somehow, quant indicators still indicate an upside.

00:15:40So keep an eye out for that.

00:15:42The optimisms need not go away.

00:15:43Thus far, it is still a buy the dips market as the trading day when the world markets

00:15:50were way lower yesterday and how India performed showed.

00:15:53So there's a buy the dip strategy still intact.

00:15:56For the Nifty Bank, though, we are at that point of maximum resistance.

00:16:00Almost every note that I read yesterday spoke about our 51500 or 51750s coming out to be

00:16:08a key point of resistance.

00:16:10So watch out for that, particularly the Bank Nifty if it underperforms, because yesterday

00:16:14it actually did much better than the large cap.

00:16:16Yesterday, by the way, the small caps did really well relative to the large caps.

00:16:19The Nifty may have been down, but the small cap index was up nearly a percent.

00:16:23So no problems there.

00:16:25And IT started to find more favor with brokerages.

00:16:29Who knows, could be outperforming today as well.

00:16:31Yesterday was up about half a percent.

00:16:33The Citi note on Wipro was out yesterday.

00:16:36Wipro was up and about in trade yesterday.

00:16:38Today, there is a Morgan Stanley note, and we'll talk about that in detail.

00:16:41But keep an eye out for IT.

00:16:43May continue its bout of outperformance in today's session.

00:16:47Neeraj, just one quick one, right?

00:16:49So I know Bank Nifty has been so precariously placed all through August and now, of course,

00:16:55early days in September.

00:16:57But what is sort of catching my attention is how PSU banks are doing.

00:17:00The PSU banking index is down 1.7 percent.

00:17:03So even if the buying is coming in, maybe the private banks that everyone's been betting

00:17:08on, that trade hasn't played out.

00:17:10If Bank Nifty does hold up and do well, I do think the leadership could come in from

00:17:14private banks as opposed to PSPs lending the support.

00:17:17But this is as much as I feel more than really up and away from that sense.

00:17:20No, no, I mean, SBI, for example, the last week of August as well as the month of August

00:17:26has been a rank and a performer.

00:17:28So you're absolutely right.

00:17:29PSU banks.

00:17:29Yeah.

00:17:30And even the smaller ones, right?

00:17:31You've look at the Bank of Barodas, the Indian banks, Canada banks.

00:17:35We've all been down and out.

00:17:36Of course, the indexes are 47 percent this year.

00:17:38Look at your small finance banks.

00:17:40Look at, you know, so what Atul Suri was saying yesterday to us, he's how he split banking

00:17:44and financial.

00:17:45He's looking at it at two different pieces.

00:17:47But yeah, SBI would focus today also on the back of brokerage notes.

00:17:50And remember, we're speaking with the new boss in SBI, CS Setty.

00:17:56You will hear from him on NDTV Profit ahead on the show today at 9.30 p.m.

00:18:01So stay tuned for that as well.

00:18:03Yeah, but it's now time to go through all our stocks this morning.

00:18:06We've got a few.

00:18:07We've got a few that you should be tracking in early trade.

00:18:10Three of us will take you through those.

00:18:11First up on my list is Adani Enterprise.

00:18:14And this is an important update announcement coming in from the group.

00:18:18They've announced an early closure of their 800 crore NCD issue.

00:18:23The date has been moved forward to today, as opposed to earlier, which was supposed

00:18:27to be 17 September when the closure was expected.

00:18:31Now, what really does stand out is that they've been oversubscribed and not oversubscribed

00:18:35a few times, but oversubscribed 221 times on day two, which was yesterday.

00:18:42So huge positive coming in there.

00:18:44All the supply that they put out on the convertible debenture side has got lapped up.

00:18:49And the participation has come in from retail.

00:18:52So that also stands out for us.

00:18:54This is also the first non-financial NCD issue that we're seeing in this year.

00:18:58So there's a lot of excitement around this one.

00:19:01And hence, the company and the management has decided to close the issue as early as

00:19:06today versus 10 days out, which was 16th of September.

00:19:10You would see a positive reaction on the counter.

00:19:12I would imagine that should be given largely on back of this.

00:19:16Quick disclaimer of the channel you're watching is owned by the Adani Group as well.

00:19:21Well, a few more stocks that I'd be tracking.

00:19:23One is Prestige Estates.

00:19:25They did a QIP.

00:19:26We talked about this a few weeks ago.

00:19:28Closed the QIP day before yesterday.

00:19:30Successfully have raised 5,000 crore rupees.

00:19:33Now, what again has worked really well for Prestige Estates is the kind of people or

00:19:38institutions that have come in and got bought into this QIP.

00:19:42To name a few, you've got ICICI Prudential, HDFC Life Insurance, Aditya Birla Sun Life

00:19:47Trustee, New World Fund, NPS Trust, etc.

00:19:51are some of the large participants in prestigious QIP.

00:19:54The vote of confidence by them will fuel the sentiment for retail investors and Prestige

00:19:59will be getting a good sort of day of trade over the next few sessions.

00:20:03The other one usually reacts to order wins.

00:20:05Another one, another order win coming for KEC International.

00:20:09And this is a big one.

00:20:10They've backed an order for 1,423 crores for supply and installation in Saudi Arabia.

00:20:17The stock went home with gains of 6% on a day when the trade was muted.

00:20:21Their total order book in F525 so far stands at 11,300 crores, which is a 75% increase

00:20:29year on year.

00:20:30So, KEC positive, Prestige Estate is a positive and of course, Adani Enterprise early closure

00:20:35of the NCD is also a positive.

00:20:37You know, we've been talking about the appetite for paper and equity.

00:20:42But even on the debt side, I mean, it's astonishing the kind of participation that has come in

00:20:48and of course, that you have to close that issue earlier is really a turn in the rate

00:20:53cycle.

00:20:53I think it's slap up as much as you can right now.

00:20:56Absolutely.

00:20:57All right.

00:20:58Three stocks on my watch, you know, Neeraj has been speaking about IT and the first one

00:21:02is an IT company, Wipro is what we're talking about.

00:21:05And Wipro has been sort of, I would say, relatively bucking the trend.

00:21:09Maybe you could say it's one of the last to react in the last mini IT cycle we saw.

00:21:14But anyhow, the news that's coming in is that they have got enlisted by the JFK International

00:21:20Air Terminal to meet their sustainability targets.

00:21:22The company has not really put out details of the size of the deal or any other kind

00:21:28of pointers there.

00:21:29But nevertheless, it would be a positive sentimentally for Wipro.

00:21:34Jindal Stainless is the other one.

00:21:36They have supplied stainless steel for the Vande Bharat Sleeper Coaches.

00:21:40The prototype was unveiled by the Minister of Railways recently.

00:21:43It's designed for an overnight journey and they're manufactured by Integral Coach Factory,

00:21:49ICF and BEML.

00:21:50So those companies as well could see a positive upgrade over there.

00:21:55So Jindal Stainless is the other one.

00:21:57Ashoka Bilkon actually started seeing a bit of a run up towards the close of trade yesterday

00:22:03as well.

00:22:04There you have it.

00:22:04Look at that massive spike, 13% up yesterday itself.

00:22:08You could see a bit of a continuation that there.

00:22:11The company has announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, VHL, that is Viva Highways

00:22:16Limited, has monetized its land in Hinjawadi, Pune, for a total value of 453 crores.

00:22:23So that could be an upside for Ashoka Bilkon.

00:22:27And yeah, those are the top three on my list.

00:22:30Ola Electric might be interesting today, simply because while the stock was up and about yesterday,

00:22:35the anchor book, 50% of the anchor book lock-in has opened and those shares are free to trade.

00:22:41So if you see downward pressure on Ola Electric, it could be a technical factor and not necessarily

00:22:46something fundamental associated with it.

00:22:49So bear that in mind.

00:22:52It's certainly something that you want to keep an eye out for, particularly because

00:22:56it's had a strong day in trade yesterday.

00:22:59So that's Ola Electric, the first one on my list.

00:23:03Not quite sure how some of the IT names per se behave, but while Wipro had an uptick yesterday,

00:23:11Morgan Stanley's note on IT is interesting.

00:23:14They like LTI Maintree, which has been upgraded to an overweight rating.

00:23:18They like Infosys and CoForge as their preferred stocks.

00:23:22They are underweight Wipro and downgrade HCL Tech to an equal weight,

00:23:28given its sharp outperformance.

00:23:31Also, they are underweight all the ER&D players.

00:23:35So the KPID Techs, LTTS, Tata Technologies, Morgan Stanley's underweight, all of those.

00:23:43And the third one, I mean, there are multiple brokerages,

00:23:45but I just had to bring out the Goldman Sachs note on Vodafone.

00:23:51Because while the talk is about how their target price is two and a half,

00:23:55guys, I mean, they've maintained the sell and that earlier target was 2.2 rupees.

00:24:01So it's not that the target was 10 or 8 or 15 and they've taken it down to 2.5.

00:24:06It was 2.2.

00:24:08They brought it up actually to 2.5.

00:24:10So they have been wrong thus far.

00:24:14Now a little less wrong by 50 paise.

00:24:17By 30 paise, to be honest.

00:24:20Because they can't do a complete U-turn, right?

00:24:22They'd have heck on their face.

00:24:23No, they've hedged it well.

00:24:24So and maybe as per the DCF, you know, you could arrive at a target that you want, right?

00:24:29And a target that you actually believe.

00:24:31So they said that the DCF based valuation is two and a half rupees

00:24:34because they expect the free cash flow to be negative till at least FY31.

00:24:38But they also said that despite the fundraising, the market share will continue to drop.

00:24:43May happen because it may continue for a while.

00:24:45But the hedge is beautiful.

00:24:47So they say that the target is two and a half.

00:24:49The hedge is that the implied in a blue sky scenario, if everything goes well,

00:24:54and if the AGR case is in their favor, etc, etc,

00:24:57then the implied value is actually 19 rupees per share.

00:25:00So the whole gamut from two and a half to 19.

00:25:02So it's like pollsters who are ahead of any elections give such a wide range

00:25:08that no matter what happens, you called it first in that sense.

00:25:12You could argue that.

00:25:14The only thing, I mean, I'll give credit to the analyst

00:25:18because in the sense that they're sticking their guns out

00:25:20on the discounted cash flow valuation that they are putting out.

00:25:24But they are also saying that the hedge here,

00:25:26I mean, they are answerable to the clients, not to others.

00:25:28The question is that will the street react negatively

00:25:31to Vodafone on the back of this report?

00:25:33I doubt the reason, which is why I thought it was important to highlight

00:25:36that it is not that they've downgraded 2.5 from 2.2 to 2.5.

00:25:41That's 10% guys.

00:25:44That's an upgrade.

00:25:46Some interesting stocks there as well.

00:25:48We'll get some more because a lot of,

00:25:50I would say, eye-popping notes from Goldman Sachs today, including on SBI.

00:25:55But more of that ahead on the show.

00:25:57I just want to focus on this interesting note from Citi

00:25:59because there's so much talk about Fed and what they will do.

00:26:03It's just a week away, that widely anticipated rate cut.

00:26:07And as we look at the rate cut on India and the impact there,

00:26:11there is a general view that rate cuts could trigger outflows in the short term.

00:26:16Why is Citi saying that?

00:26:17Anushi is joining us for more details.

00:26:20Hey Tamanna, a very interesting note from Citi, as you've mentioned over here.

00:26:23And let's see what Citi is saying on the foreign outflows impact on India

00:26:28post the commencement of the US rate cycle, which is going to happen.

00:26:31So if you look at the first immediate scenario,

00:26:33that is a one-month, three-month scenario.

00:26:36If you look at the foreign outflows have been net negative

00:26:40three of these four instances.

00:26:42And this is immediately after the one-month or three-month following

00:26:45this US rate cut cycle, which has begun.

00:26:47Also, the short-term outflows key trigger,

00:26:50which is looking at are also because of global risk of scenarios with the 2020,

00:26:55the COVID one and 2008 one being the most pronounced in these scenarios.

00:26:58So do keep a note on that as well.

00:27:01Just a short note, global risk of is when you're moving

00:27:04your money from the riskier assets to more safer investment bets.

00:27:08So that remains as the one to three-month scenario.

00:27:11But looking at the overall 12-month scenario,

00:27:13if you look at the foreign outflows, they have remained net positive with healthcare,

00:27:17with sectors like healthcare and staples doing particularly well in these areas.

00:27:22Also, very important to note that Citi has attributed that global peers

00:27:28see that India is still very well placed compared to the other emerging markets in there.

00:27:32So that is one important aspect that we should be focusing on.

00:27:35But coming to Citi's preferences and their stocks that

00:27:38they continue to remain bullish on and underweight on.

00:27:41Let's break this down.

00:27:42So while they have removed the industrials and the utilities from their sector preferences

00:27:48and on the stock-specific side, now they're adding HUL as their preferred list,

00:27:52seeing improvement coming in from the rural side,

00:27:55the volume growth there and other aspects leading to it.

00:27:58While in the mid-cap space, they've added Bharati

00:28:00Hexacom after they've initiated a note on this one.

00:28:04But coming to the key overweight sectors,

00:28:06we have sectors like banks, insurance, telecom and healthcare,

00:28:09which remains as Citi's top picks on sectoral-wise,

00:28:13while on the key underweight sectors where Citi continues to remain underweight,

00:28:17this includes consumer discretionary, IT services and metals.

00:28:20So this is the overall sectoral preferences that Citi has cited.

00:28:24And what could be the outcome of the foreign outflows post the US cycle,

00:28:30the Fed cut cycle, which will begin shortly.

00:28:34Okay, thanks a lot for that, Anushi.

00:28:36So that's the Citi note.

00:28:38Remember, viewers, on the flows, Citi is saying that in the past instances,

00:28:43the one-month and three-month flows may have been negative,

00:28:46but over the 12-month period, the flows have actually been positive.

00:28:49And the negative flows is on account of a global risk-off that happens

00:28:55at a time of a Fed rate-easing cycle.

00:28:58Interesting to see what happens this time around, of course, on the flows front.

00:29:01So that's one thing.

00:29:03And two, I don't know if Indian markets are so correlated right now to global flows,

00:29:07because we've done so well, despite the flows not being positive.

00:29:09So much of decoupling that's rather obvious on the street.

00:29:12But I think the problem would be there are outflows.

00:29:14Potential inflows, sure, we can live without them.

00:29:18If there are massive outflows, then that becomes...

00:29:21Yeah, and there are so many moving parts, right?

00:29:22Wall Street has done exceptionally well.

00:29:24This is a year when you're getting a rate cut,

00:29:25but you also have US elections.

00:29:28You've also got recession fears that are underway in the US.

00:29:32So tough to call it, but I guess Siri knows what they're saying.

00:29:34They say that in the meantime, in the near term, it could be negative India.

00:29:38But let's move on from there to what's working for us.

00:29:41India will become the world's largest consumer society by 2050,

00:29:45says Adani Group's chairman, Gautam Adani,

00:29:48while speaking at Jai Hind College's Teacher's Day event.

00:29:51Business Tycoon says that this will be the key driving force

00:29:54behind the country's unprecedented economic growth.

00:29:58Let's hear him out.

00:30:00I strongly believe that breaking this boundary

00:30:08sets us on the path of becoming the superpower that we have always aspired to be.

00:30:17And as a nation, we have never been closer to this aspiration than today.

00:30:25We stand on the brink of an incredible period

00:30:30where India is poised to become

00:30:34one of the greatest growth platforms the world has ever witnessed.

00:30:42Our nation's greatest strength lies in its youth,

00:30:48lies in its youth.

00:30:51A functioning democracy's biggest advantage

00:30:57is the dynamism that comes about because of its demographic dividend.

00:31:05I started my journey at just 16,

00:31:09and I have always believed in the power of our young generations.

00:31:15Today, with a median age of just 29,

00:31:20India is positioned to be the world's largest consumer society

00:31:26by 2050, the key driving force behind unprecedented economic growth.

00:31:35It is a staggering projection that even in 2050,

00:31:40our median age will be only 39 years.

00:31:46Nothing can be more empowering than being the largest global population

00:31:53that is fully literate, has zero poverty, and a median age of less than 40.

00:32:01Mundra became my karmabhoomi and made my vision a reality,

00:32:08a powerful testimony to the fact what you dream you create

00:32:16and what you think you become.

00:32:20Mundra today hosts India's largest pot,

00:32:25the largest industrial special economic zone in the world.

00:32:28The largest industrial special economic zone,

00:32:32the largest container terminals, the largest thermal power plants,

00:32:38the largest solar manufacturing facility,

00:32:42the largest copper smelter, and the largest edible oil refinery.

00:32:49And yet, we are only about 10% of what Mundra will eventually become.

00:32:57Wow. So inspiring words there from Gautam Adani.

00:33:00A quick look now, though, at the IPO market. I mean, frankly, on most days,

00:33:04it's got more action and more exciting than what's happening in the cash markets as well.

00:33:10Samina is now talking about the latest one, Bazaar Style.

00:33:14Tamanna, it is exciting, but unfortunately, today's market sentiment may not support the

00:33:20listing the way we'd have imagined or expected a few days ago. But this one's a big one. It's

00:33:24a Rekha Jhunjhunwala-backed IPO. And you know that with anybody who comes with a Jhunjhunwala

00:33:29last name, that IPO is going to get a great response. But let's take you through what

00:33:33Bazaar Style is all about and why the excitement around this counter. Bazaar Retail is a company,

00:33:39it's a leading player in the apparel business, largely concentrated in the eastern part of this

00:33:44country, which is West Bengal and Odisha. The other core markets that they focus on is Assam,

00:33:49Bihar, Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh. They are in the value business. Of course, it's not high end,

00:33:54but it's a lower to mid segment that Bazaar Retail has been focusing on.

00:33:59Well, a couple of positives that stand out for this listing that we're all eyeing this morning.

00:34:03They have a very large market share, but that's concentrated in eastern part of the country.

00:34:07They run extremely efficiently. Their growth is pretty solid. And their management is also rather

00:34:13experienced. Along with that, they've also launched their own in-house labels, which could

00:34:17potentially provide better margins and more control on the supply chain. The numbers are

00:34:22impressive, to say the least. They've grown at a CAGR of 33% over the last two years. Top line

00:34:28stands close to Rs. 928 crores, while profitably came in at closer to Rs. 22 crores for F5-24.

00:34:34Well, a few negatives that stand out, which one needs to be mindful of. It's not fair to call them

00:34:39negatives, but it's what you want to be mindful of while you're looking. If you hadn't got this

00:34:44allocation in the IPO, if you're looking to buy today, some factors to keep in mind.

00:34:48Geographic concentration. So like I said, they're concentrated in only one big part of India. Maybe

00:34:54as they go along, maybe in the next five to 10 years, you may see them become a pan-India player.

00:34:58But for now, any concerns in the eastern part of India could impact the numbers pretty significantly.

00:35:03They depend largely on apparel sales. So if there are any changes in fashion in that sense,

00:35:08or taste, their business could get impacted. Along with that, they also don't have very

00:35:13significant long-term contracts with their suppliers, which means that they fall out

00:35:17with a given supplier or there are some concerns. There could be delays due to the restricted

00:35:22number of suppliers that they work with and lack of long-term agreement with these suppliers.

00:35:26Valuations, like I said, very stretched. Their PE ratio is 124 times and that's what you want to

00:35:32watch out for based on F5-24 earnings. But there are other players in the business who claim higher

00:35:38valuation, but that's already in the listed space. Well, that is what the business is about. That's

00:35:42what stood out for us. But what was this IPO and why did they go out and raise this money that

00:35:46they were looking to do? It's a 800 crore plus IPO that hit the markets a few days ago,

00:35:52backed by Rekha Jhunjhunwala. She was one of the early investors in the business.

00:35:57She, of course, decided to offload some of her stakes. It was part fresh and part of an OFS,

00:36:02which means that some of the promoters and early investors also looked and were looking to exit

00:36:08from this IPO. Well, the 1.76 crore shares is what the OFS piece was. It was valued at 687

00:36:17at the upper end of the price band. So, that's what you want to keep in mind. She's going to

00:36:22sell out. She's already, of course, given her shares in the IPO to the tune of 106 crores.

00:36:28This one was subscribed quite well, not as well as maybe a Premier Energies, but 41 times

00:36:34was the subscription number on the last day of the IPO closing. Well, what are we expecting today?

00:36:41You want to keep in mind that the broader market sentiment usually has an impact on how a company

00:36:46lists on the street. This morning, we're expecting a slightly lower start. So, what we would be

00:36:52getting is a 10 to 12 percent upside in early minutes of listing of BazaarStyle. The listing

00:36:58is expected in the range of 445 to 453, depending on how well the markets are doing at 10 a.m.

00:37:06So, that's what we have, guys. It's an important one. I think Rekha Jhunjhunwala's name against this

00:37:10IPO drew the support from investors at the IPO stage. But of course, today's sentiment will

00:37:16largely drive how the stock opens up and trades. Absolutely. So, we'll watch out for the D Street

00:37:21debut of BazaarStyle. Remember, yesterday, Raymond Lifestyle's debut was pretty good.

00:37:27And we'll see if BazaarStyle has the same kind of reception from investors. Now, meanwhile,

00:37:33a major fire has broken out at the seven-story Times Tower building in Mumbai in Kamla Mill

00:37:38Compound. This is in Lower Parel and the fire broke out around 6.30 a.m. NDTV's Juhi Jadhav

00:37:48is joining for more details on the story. Right now, I'm standing outside Times Tower

00:37:54building which is at Kamla Mill Compound and you can see right behind me that a huge fire

00:37:59has broken out at an eight-story building at Times Tower in Kamla Mill Compound in the Lower

00:38:05Parel area this morning at 6.47 a.m. The BMC's MFB reported this tragic incident and as you can see,

00:38:13the fire brigade are trying very hard for the fire to come out. If we can see a video of flames

00:38:21coming out of the Times building, you can see right in front of the channel. As of now, no

00:38:26injuries have been reported. Authorities have declared that this fire is level two fire and

00:38:32the fire brigade team is currently at the accident site trying to control the blaze. The report

00:38:38have been come out and this incident has taken place due to the AC. The AC which was placed at

00:38:45the ground floor bursted this morning and the fire that has taken place went straight up to the

00:38:51seventh floor and as you can see, the fire brigade team is trying very hard to get the blaze in

00:38:58control and also the police authorities have come to the spot and after the blaze has been cleared,

00:39:04the cooling operation will take place and after the cooling operation, they will give an official

00:39:09statement that what was the reason for the fire and as of now, no injuries have been reported but

00:39:17there might be possibilities that the workers who were working at night shift in this building

00:39:22might be yet inside. So, the fire brigade team is also working hard to get them out of the building.

00:39:28All right, I hope everyone is safe in Lower Parel and all of our fellow business journalists

00:39:35in that same compound also have a safe and are fine through the day. But let's go across to

00:39:40Agam now who's standing by to break down F&O queues for the day. Yes, Agam.

00:39:45Oh, well, yesterday was a day where we in fact saw the benchmarks take another step back. It

00:39:50was a very small one but a little bit of weakness seeping in all the same and I'm talking about

00:39:55specifically about the Nifty because that did come off by around quarter percent. Let's take a

00:39:59look at the future space then and you know we didn't see as much change there. There was a

00:40:04little bit of unwinding coming through. The Bank Nifty on the other hand was largely flattish,

00:40:10marginal gains coming in but a little bit of unwinding coming in there as well. Now,

00:40:14we move into a new week and based on that, we are keeping an eye on the marks which would include

00:40:21something like the 25,000 on the lower end and 25,300 still on the higher end because that

00:40:26is slightly higher than that is where we are seeing the Nifty life high at the moment and

00:40:32that's also marked by a good amount of open interest being built in the respective puts

00:40:38and calls. Moving on as far as stocks are concerned, it's been a fairly mixed bag yesterday

00:40:43and while we did see longs in Sinjin, Mutoot Finance and GMR Airports, Jumbo Fertilizers and

00:40:48Max Financial saw shorts and among stocks which are unwinding, we had PVR INOX along with IEX and

00:40:55Asian Pains looking at a bout of short covering. So, interesting names there but the question

00:41:00really is that what do we do with these markets? Well, we have Amardev Singh of Angel One who is

00:41:05joining us on the show. Amardev, good morning. Thank you so much for joining in. Amardev,

00:41:09let's start with your view on the markets in general. How are you trading them?

00:41:14Yeah, overall, if you look at the markets, we are witnessing some sort of consolidation there

00:41:20and that's what is evident in Nifty per se as well. So, if you look at the benchmark,

00:41:28I would say most of the heavyweights, we are seeing some consolidation there as well,

00:41:32be it Reliance, be it HDFC Bank. Some positive is there on the ICICI Bank per se but more or less,

00:41:39if you look at the derivative data also for the next week expiry, we are seeing the PCR at

00:41:480.97. So, clearly, there's not much of a bullish sentiment and higher levels are being actually

00:41:54sold into. So, it's more of a consolidation but within a very narrow range on Nifty. So,

00:41:5825,000 on the downside and 25,350 on the upside. So, that's the range. But if you look at the

00:42:05trend, overall trend still remains bullish for Nifty, there's no doubt about it.

00:42:10Okay, fair enough. Amardev, let's talk about stocks. I believe Exide is one on your radar

00:42:15this morning. Yeah, Exide is one stock. One can definitely look at the stock. What it has done

00:42:22over the last, I would say, since June, the stock has been in a corrective mode almost from 620

00:42:27levels and pleats around sub 500 levels on 495. It's around very crucial support zone. So,

00:42:34one can look at a bull spread in this Exide for the September series. So, buying a 490 call option

00:42:42and selling a 500 call option where the difference is 5 and a target 1 can keep a target of 15

00:42:49and a stop loss of 1. So, this is what we are seeing here in Exide is that the stock is at

00:42:55very crucial support zones and also the long-term trend of the stock remains positive. So, there is

00:43:01a possibility, high possibility that we could witness a pullback in the stock. So, one can look

00:43:06at this bull spread as a strategy. Okay. Well, that's as far as Exide is concerned. Amar,

00:43:14is there any other stocks on your radar this morning? I would say, if I look at some of the

00:43:21other stocks, so in that case, one can look at HDFC Bank. HDFC Bank is actually waiting for a

00:43:30major trigger and what I see is that we have seen some significant volumes there. So,

00:43:36if it sustains above the 1660 odd levels, then one can look at buying a call option or maybe a

00:43:43bull call spread also in that case, going for a 1680 and a 1700 pair. But only if HDFC sustains

00:43:53above the 1660, 1670 levels. Okay. Well, there you have it. Well,

00:44:00those are two ideas from Amar, Exide Bank and HDFC, pardon me, Exide Industries and HDFC Bank.

00:44:07Well, Amar, on that note, thanking you for joining us and taking us through your views

00:44:11on the markets and of course, giving us those two trading ideas. But for all those who are

00:44:17interested in perhaps placing a bet or who already have a position in the futures and

00:44:23options space, don't forget to post in your queries to perhaps get a confirmation on whether

00:44:29or not it is a great idea. And WhatsApp it to us on the number that's being flashed on your screen.

00:44:36We certainly will be taking those queries up with our experts today. And well, that's what we have

00:44:42in terms of the futures and options space. With that, it's back to you, Tamanna.

00:44:47All right. Thank you for that, Agam. Let's talk about one of the sectors on our watch list,

00:44:51which is IT. Morgan Stanley has a note out where they say they prefer tech stocks over

00:44:57engineering and R&D companies. Rucha joins in for more. Rucha, what's the rationale

00:45:03Morgan Stanley is giving? Right, Tamanna. So, Morgan Stanley has

00:45:07come out with a detailed note on the IT sector. Now, it prefers IT services over ER&D, which is

00:45:13engineering, research and development. Now, we can see that many of the IT names are also acquiring

00:45:18these ER&D companies and hence IT services is a broad based portfolio than the ER&D companies.

00:45:25Talking about stocks, the brokerage house has upgraded LTI Mintree to overweight from

00:45:30equal weight and has downgraded HCL Technologies to equal weight from overweight. Now, let me talk

00:45:36to you more about this. In LTI Mintree, the positive catalyst that the brokerage house is

00:45:41watching for is the improved deal conversion ratio, stabilizing margins and wallet share gains

00:45:47as well that could aid the company to go ahead. Now, in terms of HCL Technologies,

00:45:52many brokerage houses also believe that the valuations are too stretched. At the current

00:45:56price, HCL Technologies is valued at around 29 times its FY25 EPS ratio. The downside includes

00:46:04the limited deal wins and share out performance. Limited signals of uptick in revenue is also one

00:46:09of the negative factors because of which the brokerage house has downgraded the stock.

00:46:13Now, talking about the pecking order, it prefers Infosys over TCS, LTI Mintree over HCL and Tech

00:46:19Mahindra both. Talking about Wipro, the brokerage house has underweight on Wipro. But let me talk to

00:46:25you about valuations, which is one of the significant angles in the IT sector. Valuations

00:46:30have become expensive, although the top four PE premium to Sensex is 22%. The premium of top four

00:46:38companies is 22% to Sensex PE. TCS is at a premium of 6% to Accenture versus the last average of 1%.

00:46:48But even after expensive valuations, the brokerage house believes that the macro data,

00:46:52such as US GDP growth, S&P 500 earnings are positive for the IT sector. And when you look

00:46:59at the global IT companies as well and the hyperscalers as well, the brokerage house is

00:47:03seeing signs of positive catalyst and pickup in growth trend. Another important positive is the

00:47:10BFSI, that is the Banking and Financial Services. Now, this segment was under pressure over the last

00:47:14few quarters, but now this segment is seeing an uptrend going ahead. And lastly, in terms of

00:47:21earnings downgrade or upgrade, the brokerage house believes that Q1 was just the start of a revenue

00:47:27upgrade cycle and the revenue upgrade cycle is here to stay at least for the next two to three

00:47:32quarters. All right. Thank you for that, Rucha. Rucha talking about IT, but while we focus on

00:47:42equity all the time, the fact is that one of the most exciting asset classes has been gold through

00:47:48this year, not for the last two weeks though, gold has hit a two-week low. And in fact, Agam

00:47:54is with us to explain why. Yes, Agam. Right. So, in general, gold certainly has been trading near

00:48:00its life highs over the last couple of days. In fact, it's moved well above the mark of $25,

00:48:06$2,500 an ounce and it's been hanging around there. Now, while geopolitical tensions in West

00:48:14Asia, in Ukraine, in several other handful of parts of the world has been attributed to the

00:48:21rise in gold, it's also very curious that every time we see a correction in equity markets is

00:48:27when we start seeing a rise in gold. Sure, gold is certainly considered as a security haven and

00:48:38safe haven when it comes to turmoil across many regions. But today, this time is perhaps one of

00:48:47the few times where you actually have seen gold move in tandem with the equity markets across the

00:48:53globe. But I want to put this and juxtapose it against several other safe havens which are also

00:49:00considered. So, while gold is one safe haven, the other one, of course, is U.S. securities and U.S.

00:49:07securities denominated by gold. But what's been happening is with the expectation of interest

00:49:14rates coming off, U.S. yields, the 10-year yields have come off substantially as well. In fact,

00:49:20at the peak of 5 percent back in October of 2023, that was then, it has come off now to well below

00:49:27the mark of 4, somewhere around 3.8 percent. But what does this have to do with the U.S. dollar?

00:49:35Well, the U.S. dollar has fallen. In fact, what's really happening is that a lot of participants

00:49:41are now taking money off your 10-year yields and they, well, potentially are of the opinion

00:49:48that gold at this point in time serves as a better safe haven. And because of that, we've also

00:49:54actually fallen, seen a fall in the dollar index as well. So, the dollar index has also come off

00:49:59from the peak of around 107. It's currently at about 100 mark as far as the index is concerned.

00:50:06So, a lot of these funds have been withdrawn from U.S. securities denoted by the fall in the U.S.

00:50:15dollar and has been put in gold. And that's also one of the many other crucial, well,

00:50:21factors behind this up move that we've seen in gold coming through. Whether or not this continues

00:50:27is something that we're going to continue to keep an eye on. But for now, this precious metal

00:50:32certainly shines at a life high. Thank you for that, Agam. So, I don't think gold is going to

00:50:39lose its popularity or its luster anytime soon, at least in India. But back to equities and let's

00:50:44tell you what's on NDTV Profits watch list this morning. Well, those with positive news, Rani

00:50:50Enterprises, they've talked about or they've decided an early closure of the NCD issue because of the

00:50:56robust response they've got. KEC International has another set of orders, 1423 crores.

00:51:02Kamlyn Fine is going in for a fundraising via a rights issue. Dream Folks has a 600 outlet plan.

00:51:11But actually, this is interesting because they're moving ahead of outlets at airports and railways

00:51:18to highways. So, they will have food outlets now on 600 major highways. Axo Noble has started

00:51:26operation at a plant in Gwalior. Ashok Bilkon, their arm is monetized. It's Pune land. Basically,

00:51:32they sold their Pune land. So, that's some money coming in. Pirelite Industries, they have a pact

00:51:37with the Caltech Group for distribution. The Matrimony.com board has approved a buyback for

00:51:4272 crores. Brigade has a QIB of 1.3 crore shares. So, and Imami has bought the first tranche of

00:51:51Helios Life. So, a lot of corporate news there. On the downside, Venus Pipes, the DRI probe

00:51:56and for custom duty evasion will probably hurt the stock sentimentally, though the company has

00:52:01said they're cooperating with the authorities. And Met Plus Health has two suspension orders.

00:52:06A whole host of brokerage notes also might see some impact today. So, important to talk about

00:52:13that as well. So, let's just go to that. So, let's just go to that list as well. So, Bharat

00:52:21Forge would be one of them. Their North America Class A truck orders have come in, which are down

00:52:2616% Y on Y. I would keep an eye on Bharat Forge. We can pull that stock up perhaps. SBI has a cell

00:52:33call from Goldman Sachs that could hurt it. I would add to that list an Indus Tower as well.

00:52:42So, Indus Tower also has a downgrade to a cell from Goldman Sachs. The target price, in fact,

00:52:48has been dropped a fair bit from an earlier 434 to 350 and of course, much below the current market

00:52:57price. And Vodafone idea, I mean, I would be curious to see what the stock price reaction is,

00:53:01if any, because the Goldman Sachs target price is at 2.5 rupees for a stock, which is currently

00:53:07at about 15 bucks. So, that would be interesting to see. Mrs. Bector also has a QIP. So,

00:53:13we've covered a large number of stocks, which could react today. We'll see what happens when

00:53:19markets open. But meanwhile, what should be on your radar? Kush Bhora joining us this morning.

00:53:23Sudeep Shah with us this morning as well. And we're speaking with Dharmesh Kant. Welcome

00:53:27to all of you and thank you so much for speaking with us. Kush, let me start with you.

00:53:31On the indices, it's been not even blow hot, blow cold, completely lukewarm kind of a week.

00:53:37Do you see that trend continue? Hi, first of all, very good morning to you

00:53:43and all the viewers. It just might. It just might. But put it in context, 14 days of gains,

00:53:49two days of consolidation, not a bad picture, right? On the whole, I think what we'll take

00:53:54heart from, at least from a technical standpoint, is that even when the markets have closed low and

00:54:00by that I mean Nifty yesterday and the Bank Nifty over the last two days, they've not breached the

00:54:04previous day's lows, which means that there is some buying that is emerging at lower levels.

00:54:10Now, we know 25,000, 24,800 is a strong support zone. But we've also seen some writing at 25,200

00:54:19put, which remains slightly in the money at the moment. So, is there a possibility that we might

00:54:24perhaps see a rebound intraday? Perhaps. It remains to be seen how the options, option

00:54:29writers behave once the markets open. But then there is a possibility that we could see a rebound

00:54:34and also there's this buying interest at lower levels. Bank Nifty is slightly different to where

00:54:39we thought 51,500 may not be as stiff a resistance, but it's proving to be where for the last five

00:54:44sessions, it's not been able to close above it. So, we've had days when it's gone past it, but

00:54:49it's not closing above that mark. So, 51,000 remains a strong support zone. On both the indices

00:54:55for the moment, view remains that you continue to hold your long position. For fresh buying,

00:55:00I think you could wait for some time. For Nifty, if you get any dip closer to let's say 25, 25,

00:55:0850 is when you perhaps go out and buy. Bank Nifty, I would say wait for 51,500 to be crossed

00:55:13and that's when you get the momentum to buy. So, no immediate action on these. Consolidation

00:55:19has been the name of the game for the last two days. Friday might continue today as well.

00:55:25Sudeep, let's start with your index calls actually.

00:55:30Consolidation is the name of the game. Any signs of life though in the Bank Nifty?

00:55:37I'm just able to hear that other interview with Mr. Agarwal.

00:55:42Okay. All right. We'll try and fix that audio for you, Sudeep. There seems to be some problem

00:55:46there. Dharmesh, can you hear me fine? Yeah, good morning, Tamanna. Loud and clear.

00:55:51Okay. Let me start with how you are looking at IT companies today and we've picked IT for a

00:55:57whole host of reasons. A couple of news stories there as well, positive news flow.

00:56:03MS has a good note out on IT and as we get into the Fed rate cut sort of season,

00:56:09do you think IT is a good bet?

00:56:11Tamanna, as far as valuation is concerned, they are not cheap any longer. I mean,

00:56:15they are already at the top end of the valuation multiple and for mean multiples,

00:56:19they are trading at plus one standard deviation. My own sense is people are trying to preempt the

00:56:25move in the IT companies, but the real picture will emerge only after the US election outcome.

00:56:30So, that will decide how that spending and everything is going to take place. Not to

00:56:37forget that the US government is already on a big side deficit as far as the revenue

00:56:42is concerned. So, budgetary expansion, they want to take loans to carry forward the expansion.

00:56:49So, there are many macro things to be settled first before IT companies can see a real falloff

00:56:55for discretionary spending again increasing to the product forage which they have. So,

00:56:59I have my own, I mean, doubts regarding the same, which we have been maintaining. And in fact,

00:57:04I would be very content to say that we have missed the entire rally from the down to the

00:57:08up which the IT companies have made. But structurally, I don't think things have

00:57:12changed dramatically for Indian IT companies. Let's wait for, I mean, 15th or 20th of November,

00:57:17and then a more surer call can be taken. And the only point where I'm reiterating this fact is that

00:57:24post that if things turn out good for IT companies, it won't be a 10-20% kind of a

00:57:28move. It will be a structural three-year, you know, multiple cycle will come in. So,

00:57:34nothing wrong in missing 10-15% if you're targeting 100% kind of a move.

00:57:41Okay, Sudeep, can you hear me now?

00:57:46Yeah, I'm loud and clear.

00:57:48Excellent. Excellent. So, do you want to start with your pick straight up?

00:57:52Yeah, why not? The first pick that I have is Amber Enterprise. Now, here in the stock,

00:58:00if you see the daily and weekly charts, the stock has been in an uptrend. But last one month,

00:58:05the stock was consolidating. And we have seen a decent breakout yesterday with volumes. So,

00:58:10I feel that with the kind of sideways action that we are seeing in the markets overall,

00:58:15and a lot of mid-caps now, it's just some kind of a distribution. This mid-cap stock is just

00:58:22showing signs of a higher relative strength. So, I think this could be bought from a short-term

00:58:26perspective with 4620 as a stop-loss on the downside and 4800-4850 as a target on the upside.

00:58:36Now, my second pick is Ashoka Buildcon. Now, this stock has been in an uptrend since March,

00:58:43from 150-160 levels till 217 July end. Post then, the stock slid into a period of consolidation

00:58:51with lower volumes now. So, yesterday, we have seen a magnificent rise of volumes,

00:58:57a good volume breakout here, as well as price action also breaking out of this entire consolidation.

00:59:03And now we feel that given the kind of structure that the stock is displaying,

00:59:08this could head up to 290-298 levels in the next couple of weeks. Might not be an intraday trade or

00:59:16a trade for a day or two, but yes, from a positional perspective, this would be a very

00:59:20good stock to hold on. This could be bought with a stop-loss of 259 on the downside and a target of

00:59:27290-300 on the upside. Okay. All right. We'll take a very short break. We're coming back with Kush's

00:59:35picks and of course, a report on Ola Electric as well, where the anchor book unlocks today.

00:59:41So, all that and more on the other side. Stay tuned.

01:00:35Thank you.

01:01:05Thank you.

01:01:35All right. Pre-open rates will be all over the place, but we'll try and figure out what happens.

01:01:50By the way, lots of things to watch out for. We've spoken about how Ola Electric could be in focus

01:01:55because of this and we'll talk about it a bit later on. Metro brands, there is a large trade

01:01:59that has happened. GMR Infra yesterday, there was a bulk deal that has happened and talks of some

01:02:04very nice US-based hedge fund or fund coming in to buy. So, lots of stocks will be in focus purely

01:02:10on a kind of deals itself. The index itself likely to be very, very quiet. As Taman has said before

01:02:15the break, we are bringing or focusing on IT for some very specific reasons. And while the macro

01:02:23hasn't changed, I think the notes that have come out seem to suggest, and Dharmesh's point is right,

01:02:29a lot of slip between the cup and the lip could happen. But for now, some people are saying that

01:02:34could there be some reversion to mean for select stocks which have been beaten down.

01:02:37The likes of Wipro, for example, I think remains to be seen. Okay, let's try and talk about some

01:02:46of the stocks which had a very active day in trade yesterday. And there was Ease My Trip,

01:02:52which we will talk to a bit later on in the show. There was Gujarat Floro, there was KCP,

01:02:58and there was Kaplan Point, three or four names which had some very strong moves in trade yesterday.

01:03:03Let's talk about some of them. So, Ease My Trip, Dharmesh, was up 10% yesterday because the

01:03:09company said they are getting into manufacturing of electric buses. Here's a travel and tourism

01:03:17company talking about getting into electric bus manufacturing. It may be a blue sky sector. But

01:03:24would you as a shareholder be okay with the company doing that? Or would you take offense

01:03:28to it? Yesterday, the street seemed to like it. Precisely my point, Neeraj, good morning to you.

01:03:34I mean, they have no experience whatsoever in this segment of the business. And this segment

01:03:39is already crowded as of now. All automobile manufacturers, OEM manufacturers are already

01:03:45into electric buses manufacturing, be it Tata Motors, M&M, we have seen Aicher is there,

01:03:51JBM Auto has come out in a big way. And Ola Electric is already there. So, I mean,

01:03:56Ola Electric is already there. But this kind of a 4A market suggests something else. I mean,

01:04:02as far as shareholders point are concerned, yesterday it was up dramatically. But my whole

01:04:07sense is, I mean, I don't take offense to that. So, not seeing it as a positive move at all.

01:04:15Well, you know, Dharmesh, we'll be getting the management at 9.20am. So, we'll try and ask him

01:04:20some of these things for sure. Kush, a word on Ease My Trip and of course, your stock recommendations

01:04:25for the morning. Sure. The stock's been in a massive downtrend for some time now. Yesterday's

01:04:33move was a big one. But if I look at it from a medium term perspective, there's a falling

01:04:37trend line resistance that comes in at about that 46, 47 kind of zone. I wouldn't really be the

01:04:45first one to jump in by this kind of move that we saw yesterday, 200 day moving average resistance

01:04:49also playing where the stock went past but close below it. So, don't be in a hurry to buy at this

01:04:55big break. Any move above this 47, 47 kind of zones perhaps will be a confirmation of the near

01:05:05term uptrend continuing for some time. Yesterday perhaps might have been a blip. So, it remains to

01:05:11be seen how the stock behaves today. As far as my picks for the day go, two of them. Titan seems to

01:05:17have turned the corner here. The stock has had its share of volatility on the way up as well.

01:05:23But if you see yesterday and the last three, four sessions, the stock has done well on the

01:05:27back of very good volumes. So, I think that is one stock that you have to have on your radar now.

01:05:3237.95, 38.70 are the targets. 36.50 is where you place your stop loss.

01:05:39Pharma names keep cropping up every now and then. This time, it's Bliss GVS that is on our radar,

01:05:45had a very sharp down move in the last two weeks, but an equally sharp up move in the last two

01:05:50sessions back with very good volumes. 134, 135 is a bit of a resistance, but I think once that's

01:05:56taken out, 140 is where the stock would head to. 128 is where you place your stop loss.

01:06:01Okay. All right. All eyes on the Ola Electric stock today, another stock that you should watch

01:06:08because the Anker Investor Lock-in opens today. The question though is,

01:06:12will investors book profits or hold on to the stock? Now, Puneet joins us with more information.

01:06:19Puneet, it's an interesting question for the Anker investors as well because the whole story

01:06:26about the Ola Electric IPO was how attractively it was priced in the first place. Well, definitely.

01:06:31You know, these first round of shares in the market are going to be very interesting to look at,

01:06:35especially since we saw 100% run up in stock price and then a fall also from roughly around

01:06:39157 odd levels is the all-time high for the company. Now, this is going to be first round

01:06:45of selling. As we said, 18 crore shares will be in the market. This roughly represents about

01:06:494.08% of the total equity shares of about 441 odd crores. So, it's a sizable lot that's going to

01:06:56be coming in the market. Currently, Anker Investors will be allowed and eligible to sell roughly 50%

01:07:01of the total holdings that they got during the time of the IPO. So, you know, if someone holds

01:07:06about 100 crore worth of shares, they'll be eligible to sell 50 crore shares in the particular

01:07:10market. Now, this, as we said, is the first round of selling. The next round is going to happen on

01:07:15November 8th, which is the three-month ending period. So, that is when all Anker Investors will

01:07:19be able to sell roughly all of their holdings at that time if Anar will be eligible to do so. Now,

01:07:24we just thought that we'll look at, you know, how the last month has been for the company since the

01:07:27listing. Although the stock price has done very well, the sales numbers have been somewhat a key

01:07:31focus point. Vahan Data suggests that came at around 27,000 for this particular month, down

01:07:36from 41,000 roughly in the previous month. Their market share also gone down to 31% versus 46% at

01:07:43the end of June. So, that's one of the key concern points, really, for Bhavesh Agarwal to answer.

01:07:48The other key thing is also that, you know, year-to-date, although they have managed to

01:07:51retain their sales for financial year FY25 coming at roughly 1.8 lakh units, this is up from 1.06

01:07:57lakh. So, roughly around 70% growth compared to last year. But this is also because of capacity

01:08:02coming on stream. So, it'll be very interesting to see because the market is now crowded with

01:08:06multiple launches, especially in the cheaper EV space by Bajaj and TVS. So, there's definitely

01:08:11a stock to watch out for this morning. Back to you. Okay. Thank you for that. Dharmesh,

01:08:16I'm keen to know your view on Ola Electric. I mean, this is, I think, one of those stocks that

01:08:21have people who are very excited about it or very unexcited about it. Very few in the middle ground.

01:08:28Wondering what you think about the performance that we could see today

01:08:33once there is this unlocking and anchor investors can actually exit?

01:08:38Yeah, I'd say at the IPO stage, we were in the middle ground. We had a subside reading,

01:08:42and my sense was 1995 should be the fair evaluation, giving it a benefit of, you know,

01:08:47expectation that they will be able to deliver the run rate and the path to profitability will be

01:08:52higher. But the type of run-up which came into the stock was quite surprising and amusing to me.

01:08:59So, the reason being seen, M&M is coming out there. You have a strong player like

01:09:05Hero Motocorp already into the electric segment. You have Ola, I mean, the other players like

01:09:12Bajaj coming out with a different version of gas-driven bikes. So, it's a very crowded and

01:09:18very, very competitive space. And their launching of electric by high-end, I have my own doubts. So,

01:09:24it will take some more time, two, three years to see how it shapes up. Even if it shapes up,

01:09:29then too, I mean, 1995 is a good valuation price for this based on next three or four years of

01:09:35earning expectation. So, I think it will come down to that level and stabilize there. So,

01:09:4010-15% more kind of a stock price correction is what is likely to be there for Ola Electric next

01:09:45two to three months timeframe. Okay. Well, Ola Electric 3.5% down for now. Let's just wait and

01:09:53watch how it shapes up during the course of the day. Okay. Sudeep, the trades in banks,

01:10:03particularly, have been anything but good. I'm trying to understand, is there a trade that

01:10:08exists currently on a Friday morning for an HDFC bank or ICICI bank or a Kotak bank? We've just

01:10:14stopped talking about them because really, there's just nothing happening there. But is there a trade

01:10:19there? Good morning, Neeraj. Neeraj, if you take the case of HDFC bank now from 9th of July to

01:10:31almost two months into that cycle, the stock has been in a range between 1660, 1665 and 1610 on

01:10:40the downside. So, a 2-2.5% range for a stock like HDFC bank is not seen many times in the past. So,

01:10:48yes, there could be some move around the corner. Bank Nifty is just waiting for some triggers.

01:10:53And that probably could be the most anticipated Fed meet ahead of which this range bound action

01:11:01could still continue. So, as of now, no trade exists in HDFC bank. There could be a trade

01:11:06only if the stock moves or closes above 1660, 1665 from a positional perspective. Till then,

01:11:13it's just 1-1.5% move here and there. But if you come to ICICI bank now here,

01:11:19this stock is kind of more interesting than HDFC bank because the relative strength here is much

01:11:24higher. And in the last, say, from 14th of August till 3rd of September, the stock has already moved

01:11:327-8%, whereas HDFC bank was in a 1-2% range. So, here, there could be some buy-on-dips case

01:11:40if we have to compare between ICICI and HDFC bank. Yes, ICICI bank is a buy-on-dip till it

01:11:46holds above this 1210 mark, which is the 20-day exponential moving average. And we could still

01:11:52see some consolidation here. But from a medium-term investing or a trading perspective,

01:11:59ICICI definitely tops the list ahead of HDFC bank. Well, the Thai bank that's been a street

01:12:05favorite in the private banking space, HDFC, of course, not being able to play catch-up on that.

01:12:09There'll be stocks. I would have an idea that I'd like to see what happens. In some ways,

01:12:14you've had an upgrade coming in from Goldman where it's a sell, but the price target has been

01:12:19increased. You've also got stocks like Bharat Forge to watch out for in terms of Class A truck

01:12:24numbers that have come in. Monthly numbers are up. Yearly numbers are down, 16% down. Why for

01:12:30Bharat Forge's numbers? Well, Harsh is standing by with a quick update on what the big brokerages

01:12:36have on their list today. Harsh, what do we have? Well, we have Bajaj Finance. Jeffrey is

01:12:41constructive on this one. They've hiked their target price from sub-8000 to 8410, which is a

01:12:47solid 16% odd upside from here. What they seem to be suggesting here is that they've met with

01:12:54management and bounce rates seem to be falling, which is an indication that possibly going

01:13:00forward, your credit costs may start to come off. Bounce rates typically indicate that EMIs

01:13:07are getting paid at an accelerated pace versus what they were being paid in Q1. And therefore,

01:13:12that's a key positive for Bajaj Finance. Credit costs likely to come off. But on the flip side,

01:13:19they're also suggesting that growth may come off because Bajaj Finance is being cautious with

01:13:24regard to its lending. Now, in terms of the growth expectation, they're still keeping the expectations

01:13:30at 25 to 26%. But they believe that the moderating credit costs should aid profitability going

01:13:37forward. They're expecting profitability to bounce back in second half of FY25. And by profitability

01:13:45to bounce back, I mean the impact of credit costs on profitability should get better in H2 of FY25.

01:13:52So, they're seeing that flip. In terms of valuations, they've hiked the target price.

01:13:57The multiple remains 4.5 times September 2026 price-to-book valuations, 8410 being the target

01:14:04price. Thank you for that. That's the call coming on Bajaj Finance. Jeffrey is on the stock. The

01:14:09stock is looking like it could have a decent morning in trade. Well, Kush, a couple of more

01:14:14counters to highlight, which could be the big movers today in the broader marketplace. It's

01:14:18KEC that gets a big order. Ashok Bilkorn has also managed to get a strong order. You've had,

01:14:25I'm not sure why, GM Foddle, of course, on back of news that we had last week is doing okay. And

01:14:30Prestigious State has completed the QIP. Those four counters, anything that makes good or looks

01:14:35good for an intraday trade? I think KEC, despite the kind of up move that we're looking at,

01:14:43could continue the momentum. I'm not entirely sure if it's the upper circuit on opening,

01:14:49then perhaps you'll have to wait for some more time. Other than that, Prestigious State, it's at

01:14:54a good support zone where you've got 1700, 1800 kind of levels acting as a good support zone. So

01:15:00an opening above that could push the stock higher to 1850, 1880 kind of levels. So if you do want to

01:15:07catch a trade, then perhaps Prestigious State would still make the cut.

01:15:14Okay. Let's talk a bit about Angel One. Sudeep, just want to know your view,

01:15:20the business updates are looking good. The pre-open session also was pretty positive

01:15:26for Angel One. Is this something that you would take a bet on for today's trade?

01:15:31Yeah. See, Angel One, if we see, it was in a downtrend from the stock from the highs of 3800

01:15:39had pulled off to 2000 levels. But towards the mid part of August, we saw a good spike up here

01:15:46from 2000 to almost 2800 thereabouts. And then the stock is just leading to a period of consolidation

01:15:52with lower volumes. However, despite this in the last 10-15 days when it was consolidating,

01:15:58it is still holding its 20-day exponential moving average and the volumes are on a softer side.

01:16:04So from here, I feel if this zone of 2450, 2460, which is a 20-day exponential

01:16:12moving average holds, we could see some surprise on the upside, probably up to 2700, 2750 levels

01:16:19in the coming few sessions. Okay. Sudeep, we'll let you go on that

01:16:25note. Thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us and giving us your thoughts.

01:16:28Really appreciate your time. About eight seconds left for the markets to kickstart trade. You would

01:16:33be looking at a flatline market maybe for the course of the day ahead of the non-farm payrolls

01:16:38data. It's really being touted as a very big number. But for now, we're starting off flat

01:16:45as well. Banks, in fact, a third of a percent in the red. So much unlike yesterday, banks are not

01:16:50quite doing as well relative to the Nifty. Nifty IT is the other one because Nasdaq had a bit of a

01:16:57okay move marginally in the green. Okay, let's get the heat map up on the screen and show you

01:17:02what's moving and what's not. A lot of red. SBI correcting on account of the Goldman Sachs downgrade

01:17:08but the other banks like ICICI Bank also looking slightly wobbly today. Hindalco correcting yet

01:17:13another day. HCL Tech on account of the Morgan Stanley downgrade, probably down in trade.

01:17:18Titan after having a really good day yesterday is also in the red. What's in the green though

01:17:22is the question. LTI Mindtree, the Morgan Stanley upgrade working for this one. 2% higher for that

01:17:28one. Bajaj Finance presumably on account of the Jefferies upgrade. IndusInd Bank, PowerGrid, ONG

01:17:33CISO. It's really as if brokerages are determining the fate of the Nifty 50 stocks today. Frankly,

01:17:41not too much of a news flow in most of them. With IT led by LTI Mindtree, TCS Wipro in the green

01:17:47and SBI and ICICI Bank looking slightly weak. Yeah, it is about brokerage notes and even in

01:17:53the broader markets, you'll see some impact there as well. Let me just pull up very quickly though

01:17:58what the broader markets are doing on this Friday morning. Nothing much, frankly. TGIF

01:18:05mood there, mildly in the green on the mid cap, small cap stocks still and that trend continues.

01:18:10The small cap index has been relatively a better performer most of this week or at least the last

01:18:15couple of sessions, 0.5% up in trade right now as well. All right, Goldman Sachs call,

01:18:21sell calls on Vodafone and Indus Tower. Let's start by seeing how both those stocks are faring.

01:18:26The Vodafone target price was the sort of astonishing one because their target price is

01:18:322.5 bucks. The stock down 4% right now in opening trade. There's a sell call on Indus Tower and on

01:18:39State Bank of India as well. So all three in the red, that impact can be seen. KEC International

01:18:44has won orders worth 1,423 crores, that stock up 4.5%. Prestige has raised 5,000 crore rupees in a

01:18:54QIP and you're seeing a bit of an upswing in that stock, more action in the pre-open session to be

01:18:59honest, but Prestige doing okay. Angel One has pretty good business updates for the month of

01:19:05August and that stock in the green as of now. Viatek Wabaug is the other one that I want to

01:19:11highlight for you, 5% up in opening session. They have 2,700 crore rupees worth of orders

01:19:19from the Saudi Arabia Water Authority and that stock up on you. So a mix of

01:19:24news flow and of course, brokerage calls determining who are the winners this morning,

01:19:28Samina. It's a quiet morning, the Nifty 500 pretty much in snow zone for now, trading flat. You've

01:19:34got a bunch of movers and they're coming in on back of order wins at least in the broader

01:19:38marketplace. So Tamman has already highlighted KAC for you, that is your big one in trade this

01:19:43morning. They've backed a significant order, the order book now 11,000 crores. So 1,400 crore win

01:19:48has actually or rather would significantly impact the order book. They've seen a 75% growth as well

01:19:54in terms of orders in the last one year. Well, Avaaz Finances has come out of nowhere. I'm not

01:19:59sure what the news point here is, but the stock is up 4% as we see it. Financials aren't doing too

01:20:04badly. They're not talking about banks. I'm talking about wealth advisors in that sense

01:20:08and brokerages. Motlilal Oswal is seeing an up move of 4 odd percent. You've also got along with

01:20:14that IFL Finance, that's up 3.5%. You've got 360, which also should be seeing an uptick in trade. So

01:20:20all your equity market sort of ancillaries are trading in positive territory this morning.

01:20:27Well, a quick check on how campus active is doing. Well, anything to do with crude has a good taste.

01:20:34So Castorol trades firm this morning with the margin uptick as compared to the rest of the

01:20:38market. This one is up 2.5% on back of lower crude prices. Let's take a look at Gulf Oil. Gulf Oil

01:20:45trades flat. Paint companies while we're at it, let's see there's a reaction this morning on any

01:20:49of those counters. Berger, Indigo paints are some of the names that are worth mentioning,

01:20:53trading highest. They're doing much better than the rest of the market at least in terms of trade.

01:20:57Vartech is looking good. Vodafone is taking into the chin. That GS Gold report has not done well

01:21:02for the stock. The counter sees a 5% downtick. Indus Tavo also sees a 2% downtick. Indigo paints,

01:21:09I believe, has had a block deal that's just hit the market right now. So that could be a reason

01:21:14why you're seeing a little bit of pressure on Indigo paint, 4.5% on a block deal that hit the

01:21:20market just a few seconds ago. So that's Indigo paint for you. On the sell side, apart from Indigo

01:21:24paint, let's take a check of what else is moving lower. You've got Raymond Lifestyle after a good

01:21:31listing yesterday, nearly 100% listing gain yesterday. The stock is seeing some profit

01:21:36taking up, down about 5% in trade. You've also got Godrej Consumers down 2.5%, Garden Reach,

01:21:42Mascow Docks, all your shipyard and defense companies that have had a good week for most

01:21:47part of this week are seeing profits being taken off the table. Kush, quick one. Anything

01:21:54identified in the first few minutes of trade on the long or short side?

01:22:01Slightly mixed bag in the sense that Titan had a softish start, but it's recovering rather well.

01:22:06And it's holding about the 3700 mark. So this was our call in the morning with targets of 3795,

01:22:133870, 3650 being the stop loss, that's still intact. Bliss GVS, again, on the positive side,

01:22:20but soft. Both of these are still very much active. I think more than anything, I'd like to

01:22:25reiterate the Sriram Piston call that we've been discussing. And yesterday also as a part of the

01:22:31BTSC idea, we discussed it around the 2200 mark, has had a solid start. It's maintaining this

01:22:36for a target of 2300 and higher levels. Someone, if he wants to enter from a trading perspective,

01:22:42you can, although we still believe that this stock has a much higher or a much longer way to go.

01:22:48Okay. Dharmesh, anything from the results that has stood out for you that we haven't

01:22:54discussed today that you want to maybe just give us an insight into?

01:22:59Yeah, I mean, a couple of stocks are there which look very interesting in the current market juncture

01:23:04and the way the earnings pattern has spanned out for them. Both are from the partner space. I mean,

01:23:10one is from the hospital chains, Narayana Hurdzale. I think the management has become aggressive

01:23:16now. They are outlaying CapEx for capacity expansion in different geographies. And if you

01:23:22compare this with other hospital chains, they are pretty cheap even at current level. So our call is

01:23:28for a long-term or SIP method of investing. We are seeing at a double at 2100 is the target price

01:23:34based on two years forward earnings. And the next one is Natco Pharma. So this is again a

01:23:41big cap company, particularly into fixed dosage formulation business. Around 76% of it is exported.

01:23:48It's one of the top three oncology players in India. And again, very cheap. If you look at

01:23:52operating margins, pretty high operating margins. Valuation multiples are quite cheap. It's available

01:23:57at 15, 16 kind of multiple with an ROE in excess of 25. We expect 20% profit for this company.

01:24:03So these two are the stocks which I think based on the present market texture is a good SIP

01:24:10method of investing and expect almost 30% to 40% gain on Natco Pharma from a U.S. perspective. And

01:24:17two and three years if we are willing to wait, Narayana Hrudayale around 2100 is the price

01:24:21target which we are expecting from the same. Dharmesh, Kush, so good having you both of you.

01:24:26Thank you so much for taking the time out. Thank you so much, Dinesh.

01:24:29And have a great weekend. Mithyami Dukkaran to both of you. Happy Ganesh Chaturthi to both of

01:24:34you. Let's get in Manoj Soni, CEO of EVN Mobility at EaseMyTrip for the announcement that they did

01:24:40yesterday. Manoj, good having you. Thanks for taking the time out. Let's first start with,

01:24:47because I'm guessing that as the CEO of this division at EaseMyTrip, you probably have prior

01:24:52experience in this space, which is why you've been brought in. But it's a crowded pocket, right,

01:24:57Manoj? I mean, how does a, quote unquote, a startup make its mark when there are behemoths

01:25:04already operating? So, in this space, there is, anyway, it's already on a growth trajectory. We

01:25:12see that year on year, I mean, the CAGR was expected around 24% into this. By 2030-35,

01:25:19I'm pretty sure that there would be a huge demand of around more than 100,000 odd buses. So,

01:25:26there is a space available and we come from the experience segment from the same industry and

01:25:33that's how there is a potential and we are entering into this venture. Manoj, just tell

01:25:39us a bit, because the question yesterday in everybody's mind was, what capability does

01:25:44EaseMyTrip as a business have to launch something like this? Because they're a travel portal,

01:25:48I'm guessing you bring that experience. Just tell us a bit about you and the team that is

01:25:52setting this up for EaseMyTrip. So, to start with EaseMyTrip, EaseMyTrip, as we all know,

01:25:58have a very rich experience into B2C e-commerce sector domain. We already have a subsidiary

01:26:03called Eulobus, which is an EaseMyTrip subsidiary, which is already operating

01:26:08in 250 routes in India. Coming to your question, I personally from, I have 24 years of experience

01:26:17and I am from this background only, I am Excel, Shukliland and Electra as well. So,

01:26:24the team also, the R&D team and all the team, those who are working back into this, they are

01:26:29also having a rich experience and we are building a very great product, which I'm sure in coming

01:26:34time we will see and we will experience that. Manoj, hi, it's also Samina joining in. The most

01:26:39important question, I guess, is how do you plan to fund this expansion? I know your company is

01:26:44almost debt-free, so extremely healthy on debt equity, but these are big plans and this is an

01:26:49upfront investment, I am guessing, that you would be making into this forward integration

01:26:54that you are looking to do. Right.

01:26:55Where is the money coming from? So, initially, board has approved

01:27:00200 crores for the initial proto R&D and plan setup. Going forward, that investment would be

01:27:08utilized in coming 2 to 3 years. Going forward, when we expand, when we initiate the production

01:27:15and all, company is already into funding rounds with investors, that I am sure that would be

01:27:22sorted out. 200 crores initial, that is going to be upfronted, will be coming in from internal

01:27:28approvals? That's an internal approval, yes. And maybe a quarter out of QIP is what could

01:27:34potentially happen? If you have big plans, you don't have much of a choice.

01:27:42Yes, we do have a big plan and we are aggressive about it. We are very much confident and it was

01:27:47not the decision which was made in a very hasty, the thing we had a very long round of discussion

01:27:54once when our playbook was ready, we hit the roads and now we are here.

01:28:01Manoj, how will you look at integrating this? Will this only be for Ease My Trip

01:28:06customers who book through your platform? Will this be available to other platforms?

01:28:11It is the traditional manufacturing business which would be open for all,

01:28:14which would be for India market as well as we are also exploring

01:28:18international markets as well. The product would be capable enough.

01:28:24Is this done revenue accretive? Because I am assuming the investments come in now,

01:28:27it could be at least a few months out if not longer.

01:28:31Sorry? I said when will this turn revenue

01:28:33accretive for you? I am assuming it is still a few months out if you are just setting up

01:28:37the facility for now. Yes, so currently we are in a phase of

01:28:39setting up the facility and creating the infrastructure and all. So we would have our

01:28:44product on road in 2025 and from there we would be hitting the complete revenue booking and all.

01:28:52Manoj, I am just going to snowball this for you because I don't have a sense of this but

01:28:57given the business it is in, one where are you looking to set up this facility and in the last

01:29:03couple of weeks as well the PLI approvals have gone up. Would you consider applying for a PLI?

01:29:10Yes, we would be considering applying for PLI. As of now we have taken a plot around Gurgaon

01:29:18where we would be setting up the infrastructure and everything.

01:29:20Is this planned Manoj? Yeah, planned would be in Gurgaon and we are

01:29:25also in discussion for the expansion of other things.

01:29:31Okay, I just have one more question and which is, what are the timelines Manoj? I mean,

01:29:39when do you apply for this? You might apply a PLI etc. When do the first of the products

01:29:44come off the block? And are there internal targets for, sorry, my second part of my

01:29:49question is are there internal targets for how does the revenue stream look like, let's say in

01:29:54FY26 and then let's say maybe in FY29 or FY30? Sorry, I think we have lost. Sorry Manoj,

01:30:07could you start from that answer again? We just lost you for a brief bit.

01:30:12Hello, am I audible? You are audible now, please.

01:30:15Sorry, internet connection. So yes, the plans are big. We are expecting our first

01:30:20proto and first built vehicle to be out in 2025. From there, the full scale production

01:30:26will start and the growth trajectory would be set. I believe we all will see the financials

01:30:32and balance sheet next year onwards when we start booking the revenues and other things.

01:30:37Some internal targets, Manoj, I'm not asking for a ballpark number, but you mentioned that

01:30:41a big plans, some internal targets about what the numbers could look like, let's say.

01:30:46So in first year, probably, yeah, after the production starts, the first year is something

01:30:51which we are expecting to be around 500 crores revenue. And from there, by 2030, I'm very much

01:30:58sure it would be close to around 5000 or 6000 crores business. Of top line from this electric

01:31:07bus business alone. Yes. Okay. Well, Manoj, we wish you all the best for this and more. Thanks

01:31:13so much for taking the time out and being with us today. Thanks a lot. Thanks for having me.

01:31:17Well, two questions answered by Manoj Soni. One, the question marks were whether Ease My Trip has

01:31:22the capability or no. There is also a step down subsidy that they have and Manoj and team come

01:31:27ex, Manoj himself said that he's ex-Electra and ex-Ashok Leyland, if I'm not wrong. So in some

01:31:32sense, brings some experience out there. Yeah. Very tall plans, but hyper competitive space.

01:31:37So it's going to be difficult for sure. And they have also international plans.

01:31:41And of course, the fact remains that they are putting in 200 crore rupee investment in this

01:31:46to begin with. They're seeking a PLI and also they may be looking at a QIP a few months down the line

01:31:53as they look to make this bigger and grow this business in a bigger way. Well, that's what we

01:31:58have. A quick check on a couple of stocks that are moving in trade. We have Vodafone that's taking

01:32:04into the chin. That GS note is what's probably putting pressure on the counter. The stock is

01:32:10seeing a 7 percent downtick now. A few more that are looking weak. So you've got a whole bunch of

01:32:15counters. Raymond Lifestyle, like I said, is down 5 percent. Indigo Pains, GMG and MDC are some of

01:32:21the other big losers. But on the big conversation for today, if I can just quickly. SPI stock boss

01:32:29says that the bank will focus on customer service for deposit growth. CS Shetty in a candid interview

01:32:35with my colleague Vishwanathan Nair says that the three year agenda is to, you know, of course,

01:32:42grow the deposits. Let's hear him out as he talks about his three year agenda and discusses his

01:32:47future plans for SBI Bank. We are here not on account of speed, but on account of direction

01:32:56and intent. The right direction, right intent is something what brought us here in terms of the

01:33:02size, in terms of the positioning. So that philosophy of pursuing those objectives will

01:33:10remain. I think that's the first thing I would like to say. But the strategies in terms of,

01:33:19you know, what needs to be done in the business, in terms of our strategic directions, in terms

01:33:25of technology. What I intend to do is that in the last three to four years, we built

01:33:36a strong balance sheet. We have invested significantly in the technology and digitalization.

01:33:45Now we have to leverage on that. The leverage is of two kinds in the sense that, you know,

01:33:52we have unparalleled branch presence, ATMs, business correspondents. And how do I marry

01:34:01this technology and digital to reach across the channels and increase the productivity would be

01:34:07my first priority. The productivity gains on account of the technology investments would be

01:34:15the focus. So the second feature would be that we have been succulently growing.

01:34:25While we had a large retail growth for a couple of years and when corporate growth was not

01:34:32happening. Today if you see, retail personnel, MSME, agriculture, corporate, almost having a

01:34:40double digit growth. That means my focus on a particular segment is not there now.

01:34:49I need to grow in all the segments and I have the potential to grow.

01:34:55But among them, if I have to take out and I see that there's a good amount of

01:35:02income potential, earning potential in the MSME now today. And we believe that

01:35:12the kind of data set what is available in terms of GST, in terms of our own account statement,

01:35:20analytics, the MSME lending is much more confidently we can lend to the MSME than

01:35:28what we were doing earlier. So the focus would be on the business front. These are the areas

01:35:33which we are going to do. And for all these things, the central agenda would be the technology

01:35:38and digitalization. As you know, 2.0 also is going to be something which is going to be available

01:35:44during this period and which is going to completely transform the customer experience across the

01:35:49channels, omnichannel experience. So if I have to, my answer is somehow, these are some other

01:35:56things, but I think there are a lot of elements which go into it to achieve these objectives.

01:36:00I'm not getting into the numbers. Obviously, the numbers, you will definitely come to that

01:36:05numbers later. I'll answer it. Okay. Let me break this up now entirely.

01:36:10You've got a massive loan book, right? And an equally massive deposit. In fact,

01:36:16your deposit book is larger than the loan book currently. As a lender who's currently looking

01:36:22at the macro environment, as well as the environment in the banking sector,

01:36:28growing a big book like yours in an extremely competitive sort of landscape, whether it be

01:36:34liabilities or assets, how do you think that will go by in the next three years?

01:36:40Yeah. One thing, at the management level, we decided, and even the board level, we have decided

01:36:48that our growth will not come at any cost. I said in some context also that if I'm fighting for

01:36:57deposits or competing for deposits, I would compete on non-rate war. I don't want to get

01:37:05into the rate contest. Yeah. I would like to improve the service quality and our customer

01:37:11basis shows. And some of them are probably not happy with some of the services. How do we bring

01:37:19them back? We have identified the whole universe of our customers who are the promoters, who are

01:37:27promoting our services. SBI is good. You place a bank with SBI. And then we have stagnant customers.

01:37:34That means they have an account, but have not been transacting. We would like to reach out to them

01:37:38and ask them what makes you to come back. And there are attitudes. They're leaving. Some of

01:37:44them probably are leaving for some reason. We would like to find out what are those reasons

01:37:48which are making them to leave. In the sense that our effort would be to fight on non-rate

01:37:57contest, not on the rate war. Okay. So, is the case with the under credit. When you talk about

01:38:02the credit, the credit growth, we would like to do without compromising on underwriting standards.

01:38:09This is something which we hard fought and established very, very strong underwriting

01:38:14standards today. And there is no way we can compromise on that. And even if the book grows

01:38:20a little slower, it's fine with us. Okay. Fair enough. Coming within the lending ecosystem,

01:38:28two major parts, you've got a non-wholesale and a wholesale piece. Within the non-wholesale piece,

01:38:33you've got retail, you've got MSME as one of the focus areas, as you mentioned.

01:38:37I want to touch upon retail and then come to MSME. First, retail, extremely competitive,

01:38:43unsecured, not so exciting for lenders at this point in time after the Reserve Bank of India

01:38:47raised some concerns. And of course, you are seeing some amount of slippages on that side

01:38:52as well. You and I'm saying the banking system has been so much. To your mind, what is retail

01:39:00growth looking like for SBI, for the ecosystem? Do you think that maybe the times of that

01:39:05extremely 30%, 35% growth is sort of behind us? Yeah. I think the serious year of the 35%

01:39:13what we witnessed may not happen for two reasons. I think there was some kind of demand which

01:39:19resulted in that kind of growth. Obviously, it will moderate over a period of time.

01:39:25And the RBI measures also definitely have impacted the unsecured loan growth rates.

01:39:32But in our book, if I have to talk about SBI, we keep on saying that there are unsecured loans

01:39:38and there are unsecured loans of SBI. So our policy would be that how do we strengthen and

01:39:47expand the user base? We don't want to give unsecured loan to the same person. So we have

01:39:53a significant number of salary package account customers who have not taken this unsecured loan

01:40:00yet. So we would like to reach out to them. And I think our potential is there. I'm not saying

01:40:05that we wouldn't be witnessing 30 to 35% growth rates what we've had earlier. Obviously, to cover

01:40:14on the additional risk rates, we may have to increase the rates. Some amount of rate increase

01:40:20probably would happen in unsecured loan space. But our effort would be to get the best quality

01:40:25customers into our books. That's the unsecured piece. Now on the secured side,

01:40:31under your predecessor, the focus on the home loan has come back, pushing that product as one

01:40:36of the major drivers of your retail book. Where does that go from here on? Because the reason

01:40:41I'm saying this is because hopefully the rate cycle is going to turn. So there is expectation

01:40:45that the demand is going to pick up again. Demand is still there. I think we are doing

01:40:51the run rate is very good on the home loans. And I don't think there is any concern in terms

01:40:59of the home loan growth rate. I think that is one product which is doing extremely well in our books

01:41:05and we continue to do that. And today we have the largest number of processing centers across

01:41:11the country, home loans. I don't think anybody else has got so many processing centers,

01:41:16which has reduced the turnaround time. Today we are able to give a home loan in five days.

01:41:21So we are not only competing. Yes, our rates are customer friendly, competitive rates.

01:41:26But beyond that rates, we are also providing the excellent customer service.

01:41:31We are one of the most trusted home loan provider in the country. We do extreme due diligence on

01:41:38the bill and the paperwork. And these are also some of the USPs which are not visible to anyone.

01:41:45But people would like to take home loan from SBI because of the due diligence which we do.

01:41:50And we protect the customer interest when they are buying the property.

01:41:54So I think that home loan book and the secured retail personal portfolio,

01:41:59I think that will continue to grow. That will be one of the flagship products for us.

01:42:03A flagship product. Coming to the other focus area that you mentioned about MSME,

01:42:08what took bankers so long to realize that, okay, this is a growth area because

01:42:13you know, there was about 10 odd years of corporate credit growth,

01:42:17which then translated into retail credit growth. Now finally, lenders, especially somebody at the

01:42:23size of SBI is talking about MSME as a potential growth area. What is it that kept lenders out of

01:42:30the ecosystem so far? And what is it that you're seeing at this point of time has changed for you

01:42:35to enter? See, we have been traditionally lenders to the MSMEs. While the growth rates have been

01:42:41impacted, we were always the largest lender to the MSMEs. Even in the worst times, I think our

01:42:49MSME book was largest in the industry. The growth rate was lower. Essentially, I think some of the

01:42:58factors which had impacted MSMEs were, you know, who would depend on the large corporates and when

01:43:06the large corporates got into trouble. Correct. Obviously, you know, they also had

01:43:12and they didn't have the bandwidth to, you know, handle the issues which they've come out with.

01:43:18That made the growth rate to slow down and even the absorption by the MSMEs itself has come down.

01:43:24But today, I think MSMEs are also doing well as the corporates are doing well. Number one. Number

01:43:32two, my ability to assess the needs of the MSMEs in a holistic manner without depending on, you

01:43:39know, the piece of paper what MSME is giving to me, a balance sheet or a P&L, I have a host of

01:43:45data which is available. Whether it could be bureau data, it could be a GSTN data, or my own

01:43:50internal account data, which I'm able to triangulate and tell them that this is the loan limit which is

01:43:56available to you. So, my ability to assess MSMEs, not the medium-sized entities, but mainly the

01:44:05small, small size up to five crores. Today, up to five crores, we have completely, assessment is

01:44:11moved to a business rule engine based. Okay. That means, you know, if a customer comes and gives his

01:44:17PAN card, I don't need any paper, just PAN card. In 15 minutes, I will be able to tell him up to

01:44:23five crore rupees, whether what is the loan amount which he is going to get me. So, I think this

01:44:28confidence is what is somehow driving everyone, not necessarily SBI. I think the whole system

01:44:33is growing at 20%, correct? So, the confidence level on the governance part and in terms of the

01:44:41data quality part has improved on the MSMEs, which is making the lenders to definitely go on. And the

01:44:47second important element which is also contributed is CGTMSC guarantees available up to five crores.

01:44:54Okay. Which is a good development. Okay. So, for the bankers, there's that amount of confidence

01:44:59for those smaller loans. Got it. Let me touch on the wholesale piece now. Private CapEx has been

01:45:06making a comeback for three years. Finally, seems like it's here. There is some amount of

01:45:12rejuvenation within the corporate segment. In fact, you know, we had the RBI governor just

01:45:19talk about the fact that companies need to start coming in and trillions to start spending.

01:45:25As a lender who's active in the space and is probably going to lead the charge as far as

01:45:30private borrowing is concerned, how do you manage that growth without compromising on risk, without

01:45:38compromising on any kind of pricing issues? Because pricing has been a big talking point as

01:45:43far as corporate lending is concerned. No, I think these two things I already told you that we have

01:45:48set up underwriting standards, whether it is retail, whether it is MSME, whether agriculture

01:45:54or corporate. I think our underwriting standards, we are not going to compromise. When I say

01:45:59underwriting, it's not about the paperwork. It's about the way we assess the project.

01:46:04For example, maybe a few years ago, if a road project is there, we were trusting that the

01:46:12land will be available, right of way will be available. And even with 50% right of way,

01:46:16probably we were giving the money. Today, our underwriting standard says that unless 95%

01:46:22right of way is available, not even one rupee is given to them. And the whole ecosystem

01:46:31also has changed. And the quality of equity has changed. And the promoters are willing to bring

01:46:36the upfront equity, equity available in the form of private equity or their own cash approvals,

01:46:42which they were able to make in the last two, three years. That means the upfront equity is

01:46:48available. And we are insisting that whatever statutory approvals are required, the statutory

01:46:54acquisition of land is required, that needs to be in place. So, which gives us confidence that

01:47:00the kind of cycle which we have seen will not happen now. That is on the underwriting side.

01:47:07And the pricing side, I certainly believe that I think the risk is not being priced

01:47:12properly in the corporate side even today. And we don't want to get into that situation.

01:47:19I personally believe that with project finance, where the risks of execution are there,

01:47:25that execution risks have to be properly priced. Once the execution risk is over,

01:47:31it can move into a securitization date, where the pricing can be a market related pricing.

01:47:37I think it is important for all of us lenders, particularly in the corporate banking and

01:47:41project financing to realize that the execution risks have to be priced properly. And we are not

01:47:47compromising on that. But doesn't that make it difficult to grow?

01:47:53So, I think people also come to us because of our ability to

01:47:57assess a project. It's not just price a project. It's not about pricing alone.

01:48:02Once the execution is completed, obviously the price war starts and they go around shopping.

01:48:09But as far as project financing has been an issue, I think still SBI is a preferred bank.

01:48:15All right. You can, of course, hear the full conversation on our television channel a bit

01:48:22later on in the day. Of course, hear the whole conversation on all of our social media handles

01:48:27as well. So, keep that in mind. By the way, I wonder if the discovered price

01:48:32of the issue today is here. Bazaar Style is out. It's 9.47. So, we should have it.

01:48:41We'll try and get that going in a moment from now. But Bazaar Style should be something

01:48:44that you want to keep an eye out for as well on listing. In a moment, maybe in three minutes,

01:48:50we'll get there. By the way, the other one stock in focus is matrimony.com.

01:48:56They've approved the buyback, 72 crore buyback at 1025. Acceptance ratio about 3.15%.

01:49:04Only if the buyback is fully subscribed for, of course. Sushant Pai, if I'm not wrong,

01:49:12it's Sushant Pai, Chief Financial Officer of matrimony.com joins us on the show.

01:49:16Sushant, thanks so much for joining in. I believe I'm calling your name correctly.

01:49:20It's Sushant Pai, right? Yes, you got it right.

01:49:23Perfect. Thank you so much, Sushant. Good having you. Thanks for taking the time out.

01:49:26At the onset, happy festivities to you and everybody at matrimony.

01:49:31But just tell us a bit about the buyback. Is it being done to kind of take advantage before the

01:49:37window closes or is this symbolic in nature? Because it's not a very large buyback per se.

01:49:43Yeah. So firstly, thank you for having me here and good morning to all the viewers

01:49:48and happy festivities as well. So first, this is our second buyback. We did the first buyback in

01:49:552022. It is a form of a capital allocation policy. It is a form of returning the shareholders and

01:50:02there are different forms. So this is one form of it. So the second thing is, I think our company

01:50:07is a profitable company. It's a debt-free company. We are a cash-generating company.

01:50:12So we have about, as of 30th June, we had about 382 crores of cash. So from that perspective,

01:50:19it makes sense. And therefore, buyback has to be seen from that perspective in terms of

01:50:25what we perceive as the value for matrimony.com. The second thing on the shareholder bit,

01:50:31there's a little bit of a technicality there. I'll just speak about it. See, you can do up to

01:50:3725% of the net worth as buyback. Our net worth is about 288 crores. So we have done the maximum

01:50:44in terms of buyback and the board has approved at a price of 1025. However, since it crosses a

01:50:50particular threshold and it is up to 25%, this also requires shareholder's approval and that

01:50:55which we will put forth to the shareholders soon. So from a tax perspective, since this buyback

01:51:02will be concluded only after 1st October 2024, the tax incidence will be by the shareholder and not

01:51:11by the company. So the tax will be borne by the shareholder. However, I think the shareholders

01:51:16have to look at their own tax brackets, look at their own tax laws, because I think different

01:51:23entities have different types of tax. For example, a resident shareholder would have a different type

01:51:28of tax. Institutions, they manage money on behalf of someone else. So they may have a different view

01:51:36on all of this. So they need to take into account their entities and then figure out their tax.

01:51:41But for us, I think strategy overrides the tax. That's the way I see it. So for us,

01:51:48it makes sense to do a buyback and tax is only an eventuality out of it. For us,

01:51:54it makes sense to do a buyback. And that's why we want to do the full maximum amount of buyback by

01:52:00taking shareholder's approval. And I think the price is also at a very fair price. Since the

01:52:08price over the last couple of months to three months, so if you look at the volume weighted

01:52:14average price over three months, it's a good premium of about close to 60%. So that's the way

01:52:20to look at this buyback scenario. Okay, thanks. Now, we have about seven

01:52:24odd minutes. I would love to understand about the business as well.

01:52:27Q1, Sushant, you yourself had been not quite up to the mark. And when I look at what's happened,

01:52:35let's say for the last two, three years, right? The three year revenue CAGR is what about seven,

01:52:428% or 9%, right? If I'm not wrong, margins were above the teens. Now they are mid teens currently.

01:52:52What's happening with the business? Do you expect some changes to happen in the near term?

01:52:58Please fill us in. The matchmaking business is highly competitive

01:53:05in nature. There is a lot of competition in the north, we are leading in the south. So it has to

01:53:12be seen in the context of the industry as well. So what we are doing is obviously this is not a

01:53:17business that will grow high double digits and so forth because of the nature of the business as

01:53:22well. So therefore, what we are doing is that to look at all avenues to make sure that non-customers

01:53:31come into our foray. And that's what we are looking at. So for example, if you look at

01:53:37now about 2021, we started something called Jody in the vernacular language plane to nine vernacular

01:53:43languages. That is more for non-graduates, right? So the point I'm trying to make is that this

01:53:49business requires a lot of innovation day in day out, be it product features, be it the way you

01:53:55price it, segmentation, and we have to do all what it takes for the growth. So it's a daily business.

01:54:00It's a consumer internet space, right? So our view is that we have to go on bringing newer segments

01:54:06into the foray and Jody is one example. So earlier we were tackling the mid segment

01:54:12through Bharat matrimony or community matrimony. We also had the elite and personalized services

01:54:17like assisted and with Jody coming into play, we have sort of completed the entire pyramid.

01:54:23So continuously we are looking at avenues. Quarter one, what happened is this year had an unusual

01:54:29number of more number of inauspicious days as compared to quarter one of last year. So therefore,

01:54:35after many, many quarters, actually many years, after a long time, I think we had a decline in

01:54:42quarter one. As we see the business, we are looking at various growth levers. We believe

01:54:48that quarter two is also a little muted quarter. It is expected to be a muted quarter, but however,

01:54:53we believe quarter three onwards, we expect a bounce back to happen from quarter three because

01:54:59of the various initiatives also that we are taking. As we speak, we've also launched

01:55:04in two markets, Tamil and Kerala markets.

01:55:07Sushant, I'm sorry, but I have four minutes. I'm going to try and make it a bit of a rapid fire.

01:55:11And maybe we'll have a longer conversation later. So you expect quarter two or rather quarter three

01:55:16onwards things to pick up. I hear that it's a very busy wedding period until May, once the

01:55:22wedding season starts as well. Does that have a direct impact? And therefore, could FY25 numbers

01:55:27look better than the eight, nine percent average they've clocked in the last three years?

01:55:32No, I don't think so. Because quarter one has been muted one, quarter two is looking

01:55:37muted. And therefore, quarter four is traditionally a strong quarter for us. So I don't think we'll

01:55:44be in that sort of a range. But we will see as it progresses, how we'll do and we want to do

01:55:50better as we go along. But I don't think we will reach that sort of a range.

01:55:53Okay. Okay. Thanks for the candor. The other piece is you're cutting down on

01:55:57advertisement expense as well. Is this? Short answer is we are at a very good threshold level

01:56:02of marketing, right? We have spent about 46, 47 crores and we are covering all segments. I think

01:56:08that's good for us. Competition intensity has also reduced in certain pockets. So given all of that,

01:56:13I think we are in a comfortable space in marketing. And therefore, if you exclude marketing,

01:56:17our gross margins are very good. And with that, we hope that margins also will show

01:56:23improvement as we go along in the year. Okay, but maybe post quarter three,

01:56:28once the period, once you said that business starts looking up a bit.

01:56:33Yes. Okay, great. You are exploring new business

01:56:36segments, I believe beyond matrimony. So what's one, what would these be? And two,

01:56:41what's the rationale for doing this? Yeah. So the rationale is basically to

01:56:46take advantage of a consumer internet brand. In all the decades of experience that we have had,

01:56:51we've been here, we are just entering our 25th year. So to take care of all of those things.

01:56:57And the rationale is our MOA is very, very narrow. So we want to make it a little more

01:57:02broad and we have taken an enabling resolution and the shareholders have approved it.

01:57:06What businesses will start will be a board subject, as in when we deliberate with the board,

01:57:11we will announce to the market if there is anything that is in the pipeline. But this

01:57:16was more like an enabling resolution and we will table it as and when we go along.

01:57:21Sorry. So am I understanding that you've made it an enabling resolution, but there's nothing

01:57:26which is decided or on the anvil about a foray into other products as of now beyond matrimony?

01:57:32Yeah. So we are thinking of a couple of things, but as and when it comes, we will announce. So

01:57:36right now, there is nothing to announce. It has to be deliberated by the board as well.

01:57:41Got it. Got it. Got it. Okay. Yeah, which is fine. But funding won't be an issue because I

01:57:45presume you're sitting on a large pool of cash anyway, which was even post the buyback,

01:57:49I believe the cash on hand would be fairly substantial?

01:57:53Yes, yes. We'll still be about 300 crores even after the buyback cost. And these businesses,

01:57:59even if we enter into these businesses, these don't require, these are not capital intensive

01:58:04or people intensive in nature. These are all certain product place, right? So I think we'll

01:58:09have a frugal investment discipline as well, even if we enter new segments.

01:58:14For sure. One statistic, Sushantan, that's my last question really. One statistic that

01:58:19I really wanted to understand, and correct me if I'm wrong, of course, you added what about over

01:58:26two and a half lakh paid subscribers, right? But the average transaction value for matchmaking

01:58:35remained flat. Why is that the case? Is there a price downtick that has happened due to competition?

01:58:41What has gone behind this? See, that's our segmentation strategy.

01:58:45Like I told you, right, that Jody, for example, is priced as low as 1000 rupees,

01:58:50and Elite would be priced as high as 50,000 rupees. So the mix changes, the product things

01:58:56also changes. So it's a segmentation strategy within various communities, within various

01:59:01segments, we price it differently, and depending on the proportion of the various products,

01:59:06the price changes. So it's a conscious call on how we price it.

01:59:10Okay, no, but so my, okay, so just extending my last question before we wrap up,

01:59:14could it happen, Sushant, that your number of subscribers and the paid subscriptions move up?

01:59:21And you might be wanting that to happen, even if it comes at a lower revenue per user to you?

01:59:27Could that happen over the course of the next nine to 18 months?

01:59:31Yeah, so I think our ATV would be very range bound, you know, I don't think there'll be a

01:59:35significant change. But a consumer internet company like us, it's good for paid volumes to

01:59:41go up. Right. So it's good to get more people paid into the subscription sort of a thing. So

01:59:46yeah, your question is right that it's good for paid subscription to move up.

01:59:52Okay, well, a fascinating space that you guys are in. I wish you all the best for that and more,

01:59:56Sushant. Thank you so much for being patient with my questions. Appreciate your time.

02:00:00Thank you. Have a good day.

02:00:02That's the Chief Financial Officer of matrimony.com, Sushant Pai, talking about what could happen

02:00:08ahead. Remember, a small buyback, but it's a second buyback as he highlighted. So the stock

02:00:16is flattish. Currently, can I just put in a one year chart of matrimony before we get to the

02:00:22listing of the day? And matrimony, today's session is flat, but just get the longer term chart here.

02:00:29It's gained in the last maybe quarter, half a year or a quarter since March or April is when

02:00:36the stock has started inching up a little bit, but the 12 month performance, about 26 odd percent.

02:00:44Okay, the markets, just before we wrap up and before actually we show the new listing,

02:00:47the markets, the Sensex is actually down. A lot of stocks have corrected in the session today,

02:00:52a fair degree of pressure there at the broader end of the spectrum too.

02:00:57So bear that in mind, Nifty 50 down half a percent and small caps, just bring that one up,

02:01:04the small cap index before we get to the listing of the morning, the small cap index,

02:01:09not as bad, but in the red for sure. Okay. Another day, another listing, Bazaar Style

02:01:16makes its debut on the bourses. Remember, the discovered price was flat as flat can be. So

02:01:22is it a factor of listing on a day which is not looking all that great or otherwise remains to

02:01:27be seen? But as the management counts under the listing and a momentous day for any company

02:01:33that is getting listed, unfortunately for Bazaar Style, the listing pricing,

02:01:40the listing price is absolutely flat, 0.96 or 1% higher for now is Bazaar Style. Remember,

02:01:51Samina highlighted in detail about what the company does and what the outlook ahead could

02:01:57be like. Now, will they, over the course of the next two or three years, pick up steam?

02:02:01I think I would urge you before I wrap up this show on India Market Open to hear the IPO adda

02:02:08that is there on all our social media handles to get a sense of what the company could do over the

02:02:15course of the next two or three years. For now, it's a flat start for Bazaar Style. It's a wrap

02:02:20on India Markets Open. Up next on Profit Insights, we speak to Manish Dangi, CEO and founder at

02:02:27Mosaic Asset Management, of whether this is the prime cycle for equities

02:02:33or are there other pockets to bet on.

02:02:57Up next on Profit Insights, we speak to Manish Dangi, CEO and founder at Mosaic Asset Management,

02:03:02of whether this is the prime cycle for equities or are there other pockets to bet on.

02:03:27Up next on Profit Insights, we speak to Manish Dangi, CEO and founder at Mosaic Asset Management,

02:03:40of whether this is the prime cycle for equities or are there other pockets to bet on.

02:03:57Up next on Profit Insights, we speak to Manish Dangi, CEO and founder at Mosaic Asset Management,

02:04:02of whether this is the prime cycle for equities or are there other pockets to bet on.

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