Sunderland vs Newcastle FA Cup preview with Sunderland Echo and Shields Gazette writers Joe Nicholson, Phil Smith and Joe Buck
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00:36 Hello and welcome to the Raw podcast brought to you by the Sunderland Echo.
00:41 My name is Joe Nicholson and we're back for another preview podcast and
00:45 it's not just any game.
00:47 We're going to be looking forward to this weekend because of course it's going to
00:50 be Saturday's We're Tired derby in the FA Cup, the Stadium of Light.
00:55 So joining me today we have Phil Smith, our chief Sunderland writer at
01:00 the Sunderland Echo.
01:02 Phil, how are you feeling ahead of Saturday's match?
01:05 Yeah, just tired to be fair.
01:07 It's usually this week everything slows down, isn't it?
01:09 A bit after the festive schedule and
01:12 normally you have a bit of a quiet FA Cup third round.
01:15 I'm not sure if anybody quite needs this game actually, but it is happening.
01:19 And we've all got to deal with it in our own way, I guess.
01:23 We're also joined by Joe Box, Newcastle writer at the Seals Gazette.
01:29 Joe, how are you feeling ahead of the weekend?
01:31 Hi Joe, very, very nervous.
01:34 I think all your listeners will be happy to know that there is a lot of nerves on
01:37 Tyneside.
01:38 It's a game that I think that Newcastle didn't need and one, as Phil says,
01:42 normally you'd want this game just to be a nice home, easy game.
01:47 One that you can play some reserves, get a win.
01:49 But yeah, it's going to be a horrendous 48 hours or so before this match,
01:54 I think, for everyone involved.
01:55 Well, Phil, of course, what the two teams are playing for is a place in the FA Cup
02:01 in the fourth round, but just how much bigger is it than that?
02:04 Because it is the first weird time for nearly eight years now.
02:07 Yeah, I don't think it's even occurred to anyone that you're actually playing for
02:14 a place in the fourth round, to be honest.
02:16 I'm not sure that that matters to anyone.
02:19 I suppose that side of it, Joe will probably know better, but I feel like that's
02:23 probably more important to Newcastle because I feel like probably for where they
02:26 are in their season and the way things have gone in other Cups and sort of their
02:30 Champions League push, probably the FA Cup itself is more important to Newcastle
02:35 than it is to Sunderland, which realistically, you know,
02:37 Sunderland aren't going to compete for the FA Cup.
02:41 You know, it's all about the top six for Sunderland, really.
02:43 There's obviously, you know, this year especially, there is a financial incentive
02:46 to the FA Cup, you know, if you do start to progress through the rounds,
02:49 then it is quite valuable.
02:50 But I don't think anyone in Sunderland really cares about that.
02:54 So, and to be fair, I doubt Newcastle do too much.
02:58 This is all about sort of local pride, isn't it?
03:00 As you say, especially given how long it's been since the last game,
03:03 it feels particularly intense.
03:05 We don't know how long it will be until the next one either.
03:08 And obviously we hope it will be next season because Sunderland get promoted,
03:11 but it could potentially be a long time.
03:13 So I think it's just about bragging rights and local pride.
03:15 But in terms of the tournament itself, I think it's clearly more important to
03:19 Newcastle in the context of their season, I think, than it is to Sunderland.
03:24 The next one could be in a week's time if they draw it and they're with a replay.
03:27 But we'll see how it plays out on Saturday.
03:30 Joe, Phil mentioned it there, Newcastle this season,
03:33 they've played in the Champions League.
03:34 They'll have aspirations of getting back into Europe.
03:37 But how big a game and how defining could this game be this season,
03:41 especially given Newcastle's form that they've been on coming into this game?
03:46 Yeah, it's funny.
03:47 I think five, six weeks ago when the draw was made,
03:50 you'll have seen it on Twitter and social media, a lot of Newcastle fans.
03:53 And the discourse around it was very much, 'Oh, this is Sunderland's Cup final.'
03:56 You know, 'This is their biggest game of the season.'
03:58 But five weeks on, make no mistake about it, this is Newcastle's Cup final.
04:02 You know, when that draw was made, they'd just beat Man U.
04:05 As you say, they were in the Champions League, they were in the Carabao Cup.
04:07 Now all of a sudden, they've lost seven of eight since then.
04:10 They're out of both of them competitions.
04:12 This is a massive game for Newcastle and one that Eddie Howe really can't afford to lose.
04:16 He's lost both his FA Cup games as Newcastle manager to Cambridge and then Sheffield Wednesday.
04:21 So they've been beaten by lower league opposition twice in the last two years.
04:25 It's a massive game and one that the club really need to win because after this,
04:30 we don't talk too much after this, but once this Saturday's game is out of the way,
04:33 if they do get beat, they've got Aston Villa and Man City to come before the end of January.
04:38 And if you lose both of them, including Sunderland, that's 10 defeats in 11.
04:41 And that's, you know, that's relegation format.
04:43 So it is a huge game and one that they will hope will kickstart the season,
04:47 but defeat could really, you know, see their season spiral out of control.
04:53 Phil, you spoke to Sunderland head coach Michael Beale yesterday.
04:56 Sunderland now coming into this game in decent form, taking seven points from the last three games.
05:01 So what did Beale kind of have to say and what was his moves coming into the game?
05:07 Yeah, very diplomatic, I think.
05:08 I think Michael Beale is still someone who's sort of working his way into the role.
05:13 You know, you'll know yourself, Joe, from his press conference since he came in.
05:16 He's been very, very measured.
05:17 He's been pretty direct.
05:20 And so there wasn't a huge amount in the way of headlines, to be honest,
05:23 which I think is probably how Sunderland fans wanted it.
05:26 I think Beale's still kind of finding his feet and trying to build that relationship with the supporters.
05:31 I would say there was sort of a quiet confidence about him,
05:35 just in the sense that obviously off the back of that Coventry game,
05:38 where things felt really, really unsettled and the club didn't feel in a particularly good place,
05:42 partially because of this Derby looming on the horizon and some of the arrangements around it,
05:47 with the ticketing and what have you, that's upset an awful lot of, or angered, I should say,
05:50 an awful lot of Sunderland supporters.
05:52 But the response he's obviously had from his players in the last three games has been really, really good.
05:56 You know, the Rotherham game was a really poor performance,
05:59 but ultimately, I think if he'd offered us all seven points from nine off the back of that Coventry game,
06:04 I think we'd have taken it.
06:05 So I think he's got kind of a confidence that he obviously feels he's got the trust of the players,
06:08 that they're responding to him.
06:10 But, you know, he was very clear as well that, you know,
06:12 while I understand Newcastle are in a difficult place in their season
06:16 and they've got a lot of injuries, you know, no one should be in any way
06:20 underestimating the size of the challenge ahead, you know,
06:22 and the gap between the start of XI, the face of Liverpool the other night,
06:26 even if it's not Eddie Howe's strongest squad and exactly where he'd like to be,
06:30 you know, and the team of players Sunderland have at the moment is absolutely vast
06:34 in terms of not just finance, but top level experience as well.
06:38 So, you know, Sunderland are the overwhelming underdogs for this game.
06:43 And, you know, a few defeats in the Champions League and the Premier League
06:47 certainly doesn't change that.
06:50 What have you made of Sunderland under Dale Phillips?
06:52 You mentioned it was a difficult day for them with him coming in,
06:56 but since then they have picked up some points and got a win over Preston on New Year's Day.
07:01 So what have you made of Sunderland in recent weeks?
07:05 I think it's been OK.
07:08 You know, I haven't been particularly blown away by the level of performance.
07:11 I think there is some mitigation for that.
07:12 I think the first thing to say is that I don't think it would be wise or sensible
07:16 to be making any particular judgments about Bill so far because he's had as many games
07:20 as he had training sessions.
07:21 So it wouldn't be fair to sort of judge the level of performance on his coaching
07:25 or the messages he's putting across, because I don't think he's had time to do that.
07:28 And the schedule has also been really challenging.
07:31 So I would say that they've been functional rather than particularly exciting to watch so far.
07:35 I thought to his credit, I thought the start on 11 and the way they set up against Preston
07:39 was absolutely spot on, and I think that's been quite a big game for him in terms of
07:43 supporters could see that the tweaks he made really worked.
07:46 You know, Trey Hulme coming back across to his stronger side,
07:49 Alex Pritchard drifting in from the right flank.
07:51 It worked really, really well.
07:52 And of course, the second half wasn't much of a spectacle, but it didn't have to be, did it?
07:55 Because Sunderland had worked their way into a strong position in the game.
07:59 And in a way, it was quite nice to see them show a different side, actually,
08:01 and just manage the contest in the second half, actually.
08:04 So I think he's, I think Bill has sort of steadied his tenure
08:09 after that Coventry defeat.
08:10 I think fans have got a little bit more trust in what he's doing.
08:13 I think they can see that he's got something about him tactically.
08:17 But it is still very, very early days.
08:19 And this is a hugely important game for him.
08:21 You know, there's no two ways about that, because if he can,
08:23 even if it's not necessarily a positive result, if he can coax a really positive,
08:27 spirited performance out of his players, I think that will really help him with his stand and with his supporters.
08:32 You know, and the flip side of that is if it turns out to be a really, really bad day for whatever reason,
08:36 you know, that will very, very quickly undo some of the positives of the last week or so.
08:40 So it's definitely a big game in terms of his early days as a Sunderland head coach.
08:45 And I think he's definitely aware of that as well.
08:48 So you mentioned as well what a big game it could be for Eddie Howe, Newcastle's last team.
08:54 Of course, that 4-2 defeat against Liverpool, where the game was very open.
08:58 I think Liverpool finished with an XG figure of around 7.5.
09:03 How do you see him approaching the game against Liverpool?
09:08 I think you'll probably, I think you'll do the same.
09:11 I think against the lower opposition, sorry to call it something lower opposition,
09:15 but you know, that's what it is. At home, they've done alright.
09:20 They've done alright at home this year, bar the Nottingham Forest game.
09:23 They've, you know, turned up, they've dominated the ball at times and they're a little bit less chaotic.
09:28 Against some of the bigger sides or the teams that will take them on, as you mentioned about Liverpool,
09:32 they are a bit chaotic in that midfield.
09:34 They haven't had the control they've had last year in that midfield three.
09:38 So that would be where I think the game will be won or lost.
09:40 If they can get that midfield three taken and just control the ball, because I don't know how Michael Bale will play.
09:48 You're going to obviously know more than me, but for me, Newcastle will probably dominate large parts of the ball on Saturday.
09:53 They'll have a lot of pressure on that Sunderland defence.
09:55 And if they can get the first goal, I don't think they'll have too many problems.
09:59 It's just conceding that first goal.
10:02 They have struggled a lot with breaking teams down, who put a lot of men behind the ball this season.
10:07 So I do worry that if they can concede that first goal, that Sunderland will be able to defend and look very,
10:16 I'm guessing, very sort of on the counter attack, very dangerous.
10:20 Nottingham Forest did that very well on Boxing Day.
10:22 They sat back and then attacked with their wingers.
10:25 And obviously we saw Chris Wood get three.
10:26 So I imagine that might be where Sunderland will look to exploit them on Saturday.
10:30 But I think Eddie Howe has to just tell the team to play it like and treat it like a normal game.
10:35 He's done that in games in the Champions League and the Carabao Cup final.
10:38 They haven't changed much preparation before then.
10:40 They'll want it treated like a normal game.
10:42 But obviously it isn't a normal game.
10:43 We all know that.
10:44 And I think that that first goal will be crucial.
10:47 And I just hope that Newcastle can get that first goal because that will settle a lot of nerves in the Newcastle team and in the dugout and in the stands, of course.
10:56 You've mentioned there are a lot of injuries for Newcastle, something that there is a lot of legal concerns as well.
11:02 And there's a lot of quality in that.
11:04 René Guimaraes, Alexander Isak in that.
11:08 Are there many changes that you think Eddie Howe can make?
11:10 With Wilson's been ruled out, Kieran Trippier, we know it's a death for the game.
11:15 But do you see him making many changes from the Liverpool game?
11:18 I don't think so.
11:19 I think it'll probably be the same start in XI.
11:21 The only one, as you say, might be Kieran Trippier if he's fit enough to come back in.
11:25 That is a risk because obviously you don't want a half-fit Kieran Trippier playing or a half-fit anyone playing, to be honest.
11:30 But I think he'll be the only one that might come in and then you might see him at right back.
11:35 Livermund will switch over at left back.
11:37 But I think he's probably not got very few options.
11:40 The only other one would be Al Maron, whether he plays on the right wing or whether they stick with Gordon there and then Joe Linton on the left wing.
11:46 I think that's what they'll do.
11:47 I think they seemed, as much as it was chaotic and a bit all over the shop against Liverpool, they did seem a little bit more dangerous when they were set up like that.
11:55 And last season, they were phenomenal with Joe Linton on the left wing there.
11:59 So, I imagine that'll be the way they go and it'll probably be the same start in XI.
12:04 As it has been in every game they've played this year, they know they haven't been able to rest any players for any of the games with the cup draws they've had.
12:11 And they certainly won't be resting any players on Saturday.
12:15 In terms of how Sunday night at Phil, we saw Alex Richard come back to the starting XI against Preston.
12:22 Still doubts over Roberts.
12:24 Do you think there's many changes that Bale can make?
12:27 No, I'd actually be surprised if there are any changes, unless, you know, there's obviously, I think this game does sort of demand its own.
12:35 I think it exists in its own universe, to be honest.
12:38 And so I think you do pick a team specifically for this game.
12:41 And obviously, we did see that, you know, when Mike Dodds, that Leeds game, which I suppose there's kind of some similarities with, in which someone kind of set up to nullify Leeds as a tight end threat and they switched to a back three.
12:53 So you definitely can't rule out something like that.
12:55 But I just think to me, the balance of that side is probably the play against Preston probably about right for what's coming up in this game.
13:02 I think Sunderland will have to be resolute.
13:04 They are going to spend most of the game without the ball.
13:07 But they also need to have a counter-attacking threat.
13:09 Otherwise, they're just going to be inviting waves of pressure.
13:13 And I think Rooson, you know, it was a big step forward for him against Preston.
13:17 I think he has to play.
13:18 I think he's also, you know, the thing about Rooson is he hasn't always found it easy to impact the game, but he's got a really good work ethic and he's very energetic.
13:24 So he can press, he can track back, he can offer threat on the counter.
13:28 And I think Job similarly is going to be so important because he has that running power.
13:33 And I think in a game like this where you're not going to have a lot of the ball, those players who can get from box to box are going to be really important.
13:38 So I don't see a huge amount of changes.
13:41 The obvious one where the question mark at the moment is, as you mentioned, is Patrick Roberts.
13:46 You know, is Bale playing mind games a little bit by saying he's a big doubter or is he just being genuine?
13:50 And, you know, I think realistically, it feels to me like maybe he might be able to sneak onto the bench and be a bit of a sort of a last chance saloon, maybe coming off in the last stages of the game.
14:02 I feel like the balance of the side was pretty good against Preston.
14:05 And I think Bale will be reluctant to disrupt it too much.
14:09 Particularly because I like to say I think those players like Job, Clark, Roosen and even Alisse to an extent are going to be really important ensuring that, you know, it's not entirely one way traffic, I think, and that someone can actually ask some questions of Newcastle.
14:22 And that's going to be so important because, you know, they are going to have to defend for most of the game.
14:26 But if they're just defending their box for 90 minutes, the quality that Newcastle have, it's a matter of time.
14:31 So it's really important that he finds that balance between ensuring that he does have some real legs who can hurt Newcastle as well.
14:39 I was touching earlier Phil about the kind of resources of the two sides. I saw a kind of tweet earlier about the breakdown of each side cost. The Sunderland team that played against Preston, the Newcastle team played against Liverpool and the estimated team was about £2 billion.
14:55 And the one in the Newcastle one was about £250 million.
14:58 So just how big a step up is this for Sunderland?
15:01 Because I spoke to Dan Neal after the Preston game, and he was saying how when they played Fulham last season, that was quite a big incentive for them to come up against a Premier League team and hold their own over two games.
15:12 But it is going to still be a big step up to take on Newcastle.
15:16 Yeah, massive. And that tweet, by the way, some of the fees I saw for the Sunderland players looked a bit inflated to me.
15:21 So I'm not even convinced the team actually cost as much as in that tweet.
15:25 So I think it's a huge step up and I think it's a really, it is a really interesting one because I think that, you know, Sunderland have shown that they can compete with really good opposition.
15:35 You know, the players and Tony Mowbray talked a lot about that Fulham game last year when they drew, even though Ross Stewart got injured early in the game.
15:43 It gave them a huge amount of confidence in terms of, you know, some of the games we talked about when they went away from home and won in the last stage of the season, West Brom being the obvious one.
15:52 You know, it really made them believe that they could play their own style against, you know, top level opposition.
15:57 And I think even though I understand they're in the Championship now, but let's be honest, they're a bottom half Premier League team.
16:02 Leicester this year, they competed with really well and could have got a point.
16:06 So I don't sort of, I do genuinely believe that the Sunderland team can compete with Premier League opposition.
16:13 But I just still think that Newcastle are another step up from that in terms of the finances that they've spent and the top level experience that they now have in the team.
16:22 I understand that it's not the strongest Newcastle that someone could be facing.
16:26 And I think particularly, you know, they don't have the depth at the moment that they maybe had right at the start of the season or last season.
16:32 I understand that they'd be a different side if they could bring Wilson off the bench, if they could bring Harvey Barnes off the bench or Willock off the bench.
16:39 That would be a totally different facet of the game.
16:43 But I still think that, you know, I think it's good that Sunderland are coming to this into a good frame of mind.
16:48 But I don't think anybody should be getting carried away by sort of form guides.
16:53 The gap between these two teams financially is insanely vast.
16:58 And that ultimately is where most football matches are won or lost.
17:01 And we see that every season.
17:04 And Joe, just going back to Eddie Howe, obviously he's done a great job to get Newcastle into the Champions League last season and had a decent start to this season.
17:13 But just watching Monday Night Football the other night with Jamie Carragher and he was saying that if Newcastle were to lose this game to Sunderland, maybe some of the fans could start to turn.
17:22 What is kind of the view on Eddie Howe at the minute with this difficult run that Newcastle are on?
17:29 The vast, vast majority of fans are still very supportive of Eddie Howe.
17:33 You obviously, you always get the vocal minority on social media that would be against him.
17:38 And, you know, their views seem over the top and are highlighted beyond belief.
17:42 But the vast majority are behind him.
17:44 But there's no, you know, there's no shying away from the fact that this is a massive game and you can't.
17:51 Sunderland, every manager wants to beat Sunderland, but not many Newcastle managers have in recent times.
17:56 And this is one where, as I said before, if you get beat and then you lose the next couple as well, all of a sudden you end in January with, you know, 10 defeats and 11.
18:04 That's a big issue.
18:06 I don't think the owners will act.
18:07 I think the owners of Eddie Howe has got the full support of the owners and the staff.
18:11 I think that you'll at least get to the end of the season, you know, see where they are by then.
18:16 I think Newcastle have now got the benefit of being able to train during games.
18:20 They've not had it, or this is their longest break they've had pretty much since beginning of the season and any international break.
18:27 So they're going to have sort of five, six days on the training pitch with Eddie Howe before Saturday's game, which hopefully will bear fruit.
18:34 But this is a time where Eddie Howe, you know, needs to, needs to not step up because that sounds like a negative.
18:41 But this is where he'll really earn his money, really earn his stripes, because this is probably the lowest it's been since he first joined.
18:47 There was a couple of bad results within the first few months when he joined, which was fair enough.
18:50 He was a new club.
18:52 You know, he was inheriting a very under, out of confidence and out of sorts Steve Bruce team.
18:57 But this is the time since beginning of last season, really, where they've lost a few in a row and they now need to, you know, come out with that.
19:03 And there's no better way to do that than, you know, win against Sunderland and then you go into a game against Man City full of confidence.
19:09 However, we all know the flip side, the pressure will begin to ramp up if you lose this.
19:14 So, yeah, it is a massive game for Newcastle.
19:17 As Phil said before, it is much more, I think it's bigger for Newcastle than Sunderland.
19:22 And obviously the fans will say that, some fans will say this is a huge game for them.
19:25 But in terms of where the clubs are right now and where they want to be in a couple of months' time, this is a bigger game for Newcastle than Sunderland.
19:33 Just on the recent results, how much do you think the performances dropped off in recent weeks?
19:38 Because you mentioned maybe five weeks ago, the mood was pretty good, but some of those have been kind of defeated.
19:44 I think Sotti could have easily gone the way that the Champions League game, Stacey Mann, but kind of two worrying ones,
19:53 the knock on one's face at home and the way defeat at Luton.
19:56 So how much would you say the performances dropped off in recent weeks compared to maybe the start of the season?
20:03 Yeah, they definitely have. I think the one thing that we always clung to throughout the season was their home record.
20:09 You know, Liverpool were the only team to beat them in the Premier League before Nottingham Forest had beat Arsenal, Aston Villa, Man U all at home.
20:17 And there was a sense that it didn't matter what they did away, but even if they were getting beat or drawing games away, their home form would pull them out of that.
20:24 Now, that one defeat against Nottingham Forest has obviously changed that slightly.
20:28 I think there's a real, I don't say lack of belief, but as I've mentioned, if they concede the first goal in games, it's not really that driver.
20:38 They all struggle to break teams down and feel they can get a goal.
20:40 And I think that's happened in the last few games.
20:44 We've seen that against Luton away, even Nottingham Forest, they did get the first goal.
20:48 But as soon as Forest came back on the third half time, they didn't really have another plan to figure that out.
20:52 So there has been a drop off. I think, you know, fatigue and fitness does play a part in that.
20:57 But the last few weeks, that hasn't played a part in that because they've had 14 or 15 first team players that they can't use.
21:06 So it is it's slightly worrying the drop off in form.
21:09 But Sunderland, you know, this, as I've said, they've had two weeks worth of training for two games in the Liverpool and Sunderland between now and Boxing Day.
21:17 So this is the perfect way for them to remind everyone just what a team, because they were a brilliant team last year.
21:24 As a unit, they were they were fantastic.
21:26 And they need to get back to that. The one thing I would worry about is defensively, their solidity seems to have gone.
21:32 It's the same back four pretty much, bar Livermendo in for tribute.
21:37 And Livermendo's a brilliant player as well. So that's not really much of a downgrade, but something's just not really clicked there this season.
21:44 Nick Pope's obviously a big blow with De Bravka in there.
21:46 But as much as he conceded four the other day, he was probably man of the match for Newcastle.
21:50 He was really good. So I think if they can get the defensive solidly sorted and get that midfield,
21:56 working again, then there will be an upturn in form.
21:59 But whether they can do that in these four or five days of training they've had before Sunderland is another question.
22:06 We'll just finish off by asking you both how you think the game's going to go.
22:10 If you want to give me a score prediction, you can. I said 1-1 the other day during another podcast.
22:14 So Phil, we'll start with you. How do you think the game's going to go?
22:20 Well, I agree with you. I think the early stages are really important.
22:24 I think they'll be difficult, especially because of the noise around Newcastle at the moment.
22:30 I think if they start well, I think it's potentially a bit of a reset moment for them.
22:34 And I think especially with such a young team in that atmosphere, I think it'll be difficult for Sunderland.
22:39 So I think the early stages are going to be really important.
22:42 I do fancy Sunderland's score. It's just something we kind of always say, that they tend to find a way to score.
22:48 I know that they struggled this season in the final third, but they do have a threat on the breakaway.
22:54 And they do find a way of hurting the opposition.
22:56 So I find it very difficult to look past Newcastle, to be honest.
22:59 I expect them to win the game. They should win the game.
23:03 Despite the injuries, everything is in their favour.
23:05 So at this stage, my head would probably say, I don't know, I'd say probably 2-1 Newcastle.
23:12 So what do you think?
23:15 Putting on the spot here, I think it'll be, I was going to say 3-0 and then Phil reckons Sunderland are definitely going to score.
23:22 So I'm easily say 3-1 to Newcastle.
23:24 But as I've said, I do think if Sunderland score first and early on, it could be a 1-0, 2-0 Sunderland, because I do think the nerves will kick in.
23:31 But right now, I'll say 3-1 Newcastle.
23:36 Which is bound to be a huge occasion.
23:39 The Stadium of Light.
23:40 And for all the latest SAFC news, you can head over to the SAFC section of the Sunderland website for more build up.
23:47 Ahead of Saturday's huge match, we'll also have live updates and analysis of the Stadium of Light, as well as post-match reaction, the latest transfer news and more.
23:57 So once again, thanks a lot for listening to The Raw Podcast.
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