The Marvels May Already Be Doomed
An inflated budget. A lack of press. A looming sense of superhero fatigue. The November box office needs a hero. The question is, can Captain Marvel be that hero?
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00:00 An inflated budget, a lack of press, a looming sense of superhero fatigue, the November box
00:06 office needs a hero. The question is, can Captain Marvel be that hero?
00:10 The fall season got a little more bare than many in the industry hoped it would be, as
00:14 movies like Dune Part II vacated 2023 in the hopes of greener pastures in 2024. This was
00:20 thanks to the strikes that dramatically hindered Hollywood this year.
00:23 The Marvels, the latest entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, is due to hit theaters
00:27 this weekend, and Brie Larson's Captain Marvel will be leading a brand new superhero team.
00:32 Unfortunately, the movie's box office prospects are not looking super heroic.
00:35 "We're a team. Oh no no no no, we're not a team. We're not a team."
00:39 Director Nia DaCosta's big-screen MCU debut is currently looking at an opening weekend
00:43 between $72 and $90 million, according to The Hollywood Reporter. That's a pretty broad
00:48 range, but even on the high end, it would fall well short of 2019's Captain Marvel,
00:53 which opened to $153 million. But even that range may not tell the full tale, as box office
00:58 pro is far more pessimistic, giving the film an opening weekend range of $45 million to
01:03 $62 million. Should that come to pass, it would be nothing short of disastrous.
01:08 Looming large is the fact that the film carries a reported $250 million budget. This is quite
01:13 a bit higher than the first film, which was made for $160 million, en route to a $1.13
01:18 billion global total. But the days of MCU films sailing to $1 billion at the box office
01:23 with relative ease appear to be behind us.
01:26 The only MCU entry to cross that coveted mark since the pandemic began is Spider-Man No
01:31 Way Home, at $1.9 billion worldwide. Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness did
01:36 get close, though, at $955 million worldwide.
01:40 So what is The Marvels all about? The film sees Captain Marvel reclaim her identity from
01:44 the tyrannical Kree and take revenge on the Supreme Intelligence. Her duties send her
01:48 to an anomalous wormhole linked to a Kree revolutionary, and her powers become entangled
01:53 with Kamala Khan, aka Ms. Marvel, and Carol's estranged honorary niece, astronaut Captain
01:59 Monica Rambeau.
02:00 Samuel L. Jackson also returns once again as Nick Fury. Even if The Marvels opens closer
02:05 to $90 million, it would have next to no shot of matching its predecessor. Granted, Captain
02:10 Marvel was a unique situation. The film overperformed against expectations largely because it came
02:15 out at the peak of MCU fever, just weeks before Avengers Endgame arrived. It felt like essential
02:20 viewing in the gap between Infinity War and Endgame. That helped push it well past the
02:25 $1 billion mark.
02:26 These movies certainly don't need to make $1 billion to be considered successful, but
02:29 with a $250 million budget, anything below $600 million worldwide is likely considered
02:35 a disappointment.
02:36 Marvel Studios' most recent release, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, did very well, taking
02:41 in $845 million worldwide. But that was the finale of a trilogy that audiences were resoundingly
02:46 on board for. This is a bit of a different situation. Here, we're introducing a new superhero
02:51 team. At a time when audiences are rejecting a lot of new superheroes, Eternals, Black
02:56 Adam, and Blue Beetle all failed to start new franchises, for example. Word of mouth
03:00 is going to be key here. Reviews have not dropped yet, but as we saw with Ant-Man and
03:04 the Wasp, Quantumania, earlier this year, that can have a major impact. That film opened
03:09 to $106 million before falling off a cliff, topping out at just $476 million.
03:14 "What the hell happened?"
03:15 "Yeah, no, it's a whole thing. I'll tell you later."
03:21 Marvel and Disney are also relying on fans more than usual here, as Larson and the rest
03:25 of the cast haven't been able to embark on a press tour, given that the Screen Actors
03:28 Guild strike is still in effect. That certainly doesn't help matters. There are several other
03:33 hurdles that Marvel's latest has to clear to overcome what feels like a deck stacked
03:36 against it right now. For one, the title doesn't say "Captain Marvel 2," and there's no catchy
03:41 subtitle. The "Marvels" may not mean a lot to the average, more casual moviegoer. The
03:46 sequel also doesn't have the benefit of setting up a big event film like Endgame. It's more
03:50 or less a standalone adventure.
03:52 Then there's the fact that Monica Rambeau and Ms. Marvel were set up in WandaVision
03:56 and Ms. Marvel on Disney+. Did enough viewers watch those shows to move the needle? Or are
04:01 viewers who didn't watch those shows going to feel alienated? With opening weekend on
04:05 the horizon, it's a question that looms large.
04:07 [music]