Dolphins vs. Bills: Can Miami Keep Surpassing Predictions?
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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:02 All right, marquee offensive matchup of the week between the Dolphins and Bills.
00:08 Miami, as everybody knows by now, Warren, they put a 70 spot on Denver.
00:13 Buffalo came back very strong last week on offense and defense in Washington.
00:19 Two and a half point favorites, Buffalo are.
00:21 At the beginning of the season, if I asked you what this line was,
00:23 you would have said, ah, Buffalo probably minus five, minus four.
00:27 But that's how good Miami has been.
00:28 A lot of public backing them, total 53 and a half.
00:33 What do you make of this game?
00:34 >> Yeah, so far, the Buffalo Bills defense has looked really good.
00:38 And you're right, the look ahead line in the summer was five and
00:41 a half for the Buffalo Bills in this spot.
00:44 Miami has obviously exceeded a lot of expectations.
00:47 The Buffalo Bills, they did put up a crooked number last week on
00:50 the Washington Commanders.
00:52 They got a lot of pressure on Sam Howell.
00:54 But Sam Howell, keep in mind, he was taking the most pressure,
00:57 had the worst sack to pressure ratio of any quarterback in the NFL,
01:01 even before the Bills game.
01:03 So the Bills just like we're eating fine meals there in that game.
01:09 It was easy pickings for them in that matchup.
01:13 When we talk about who the Bills defense has gone up against,
01:16 the three offenses that they played either rank bottom five in passing offense,
01:21 bottom five in rushing offense, or in the case of the Jets, bottom five in both.
01:25 The Miami Dolphins ranked number one across the board offensively.
01:29 Then you look at pressure rate, and this is where I think is the biggest
01:32 indicator of who's gonna have success in this game.
01:35 Because of the Bills and their ability to get pressure without rushing,
01:39 without blitzing, a natural pass rush.
01:42 They've had a ton of success in doing that.
01:43 But here's the thing, when they did not blitz Tua last year,
01:47 Tua averaged over nine yards per pass attempt.
01:50 This season, when you don't blitz Tua, he is the most efficient quarterback in
01:54 the NFL, and he's pushing the ball deep down the field,
01:56 averaging over ten yards per attempt, over ten air yards per attempt.
02:01 They're really getting aggressive when teams are not blitzing them.
02:05 But the Buffalo Bills, when they blitz, though they do it at the lowest rate of
02:09 any team, they get the worst pressure of any team in the NFL when they try to blitz.
02:15 So I'm not sure, it's like pick your poison.
02:16 What are they gonna try to do?
02:17 If they sit back Tua can pick them apart.
02:19 If they send blitzes, this pass rush has not had a lot of success year to date
02:23 on actually turning those blitzes into pressures and sacks.
02:27 So I think it's gonna be a challenge, especially without Poyer in the secondary
02:30 for the Buffalo Bills in this game.
02:33 I think this game definitely could be a back and forth tilt,
02:36 because they don't have a lot of confidence in the defense of the Miami
02:40 Dolphins either.
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