Singapore faces a general election amid global shifts and growing uncertainty. But what is at stake at this critical juncture? Join Dr Oh Ei Sun to discuss the challenges ahead of the Singapore GE25.
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00:00This is Awani Global with me Nailah Huda and recently the Prime Minister of Singapore
00:12Lawrence Wong announced that the nation is due to head for the general elections in May
00:18and he describes the general election as being held in a time quote amid profound global changes.
00:25What does he mean by this? It surely comes as no surprise especially after the US President
00:31Donald Trump announced major tariff rate hikes against a long list of countries but one of the
00:37highest being 145% on goods imported from China. So we want to look at the Singapore elections amidst
00:44these profound global changes globally with the US and China trade war, regionally looking at ASEAN
00:50and also within Singapore looking at its local dynamics as well as its relationship with Malaysia.
00:55And so to help me unpack these dynamics joining us today, we have Dr. Oh E. Sun, a Principal Advisor
01:02Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia. Thank you so much for joining us Dr. Oh, how are you doing?
01:07I'm doing okay. Very much looking forward to sharing some of my views.
01:12Yeah, it's definitely very interesting. The previous general election in Singapore,
01:16it was coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, also profound global changes but this time around
01:22perhaps what the Prime Minister of Singapore is trying to allude to is perhaps referring
01:28to something a bit different. What do you make of this?
01:31Well, of course, Singapore as you know, it's a very trade-oriented country with trading volumes
01:38even many times larger than its GDP. So when there are impediments to global trade and especially free trade,
01:48such as the high tariffs just announced by President Trump, even though Singapore itself
01:55was hit by only 10% of tariffs by the Americans. But, you know, if other countries, they have high tariffs
02:05and imposed upon them and some of their goods, they might pass through Singapore and so on,
02:12it would affect this sort of very high trading volume. And that's why Singapore is very concerned
02:18about this, what it would consider impediments to global free trade. And amidst this, of course,
02:27challenges globally, it would have the possibility of affecting Singapore's domestic social economic
02:36conditions as well. So that's why he, Lawrence Wong, it's a big concern about what's going on around
02:44the world. And given this global instability, including, you know, the US-China tensions, looking at
02:51trade disruptions with Singapore being heavily trade-oriented, how crucial do you see is, you know,
02:57the continuity in Singapore's leadership for regional stability? And it's important to also look
03:03at, obviously, Malaysia and ASEAN in this context. Well, of course, Singapore together with, let's say,
03:09Malaysia and Indonesia, shall we say, the leading nations of ASEAN, right? They typically would,
03:18I wouldn't say set, but at least draft the agenda for ASEAN. So it is doubly important that countries
03:28such as Singapore would have, well, its domestic economy going well, as well as its domestic social
03:38stability also going well. So that's why I think in this election, Lawrence Wong and his team would
03:47emphasize that, for example, they are the steady hands that could guide Singapore amidst these
03:55global challenges.
03:56We want to look at some of the local political dynamics as well. If you look at the Singaporean
04:04political model, this is only its 14th general election since independence and first under PM
04:11Lawrence Wong. We also want to look briefly at the manifesto that's just launched this week,
04:17looking at the theme of changed world. What do you make of this? What are your thoughts?
04:22Well, of course, I think in this manifesto that has been released by the ruling PAP, a lot of emphasis
04:33is put on, shall we say, domestic, social, economic, as well as livelihood concerns. You see provisions
04:43about housing, about employment, about what they call reskilling or training for other jobs, for example,
04:52about healthcare, about taking care of the elderly and disabled and so on. Because Singapore is a country
05:00with a relatively small size, therefore, all these items could go into a lot of details, right? So, and therefore, I think
05:10they are trying to tell the voters that PAP does care that, again, PAP is the steady hand that could guide Singapore
05:21through these challenges, yeah.
05:25Looking specifically at Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, do you see this election as being a sort of validation,
05:32a litmus test perhaps, or could we finally see some political contestation this time around?
05:38Well, I think you will see both in this general election. Number one, because Lawrence Wong took over last year,
05:47and, well, usually a new Prime Minister would have a general election to so-called approve his mantle, right?
05:56His mantle of leadership, and this is certainly one such a big test for Lawrence Wong.
06:05On the other hand, of course, you see a number of opposition parties in Singapore.
06:11They are also eager to make a name for themselves and hopefully win seats in the parliament.
06:19So, yeah, you will see both going on in this round of general election in Singapore.
06:26What do you see being some of the major political or polling factors, some points of influence for voters this time around?
06:34I think, well, I think domestic concerns and more specifically livelihood concerns would indeed be the determining factor,
06:49just as with most countries globally, whether you can create good jobs for your citizens,
06:59whether you could provide good health care, whether the elderly and the disabled will be able to be taken care of, and so on.
07:09These are all concerns for urbanized citizens around the world, and Singapore, as you all know, is a highly urbanized society.
07:20So, that's why not only PAP, I think the opposition parties, they are also running on very similar themes to see who could provide better education,
07:32better health care, better housing. Housing is always a big concern in Singapore.
07:38Better and more affordable housing for a citizenry, and so on. Yeah.
07:44Looking just briefly at the demography, if we were to compare this to Malaysia with the past general elections,
07:50surely we were focusing a lot on young first-time voters with undi 18 as well.
07:56This became quite a major theme in the past general election.
08:00But if we were to look at Singapore, as you say, issues of livelihood, the economy, the cost of living,
08:07surely we're looking at issues of youth unemployment, retrenchments.
08:12If we look at statistics, these might not be a major concern, but there is a slight rise,
08:17despite an uptake in resident employment.
08:21How do you see this potentially shaping some of the votes, especially among young voters?
08:26Well, you will see nowadays politicians from both sides of the Singapore political divide,
08:33they would have to appeal to the younger generation of voters, right?
08:38And that's why all these different social media platforms, and especially those with video capability,
08:45become very handy, right?
08:48You will see ministers trying to explain some of their policies in more vivid terms, in more vivid acts and so on.
08:59You see the health ministers sometimes even working out and having videos of his work out,
09:06being filmed and being disseminated and so on.
09:10And from the opposition side, of course, they are also trying to carry across their message
09:16in a more lively manner and not just keep on harping on PAP and so on.
09:25So I think because the younger generation, perhaps they are more enamored to social media,
09:33so both sides of the political divide are trying very hard to win over this cohort of voters
09:41by means of more creative social media presence.
09:48I want to move on from sort of the local dynamics and look at some of the regional factors,
09:55perhaps the regional dynamics.
09:58Obviously, in the backdrop of the US-China trade war, we see ASEAN growing a lot more prominent in the sort of global scene.
10:08Looking regionally and at the Singapore general elections, how important is ASEAN for the general Singaporean voter?
10:18Looking at how Singapore plays its role in the international scene, is this a strong factor?
10:25Well, you see, if you look at the world nowadays, I would say there are several big either economies or economic blocks, right?
10:35They are the US and China, the two big superpowers.
10:40But then on the other hand, you also have two big, shall we say, unions.
10:44And that is a European Union, well, and then there's ASEAN, right?
10:49Sometimes we, I guess we underestimate how important we actually are at a very dynamic, economically dynamic part of the world.
11:03And ASEAN's, as I said, the agenda very often would be drafted by the likes of Singapore and Malaysia and Indonesia because they are the founding members of ASEAN.
11:21And that's why, on the one hand, how Singapore politically turnout would have an implication on ASEAN, right?
11:33Because Singapore is a main drafter of the ASEAN agenda.
11:38On the other hand, what is happening around in ASEAN would also have implication for Singapore and its politics.
11:46If the region is doing well, for example, you will see a lot of, for example, investments, a lot of funds will be packed at Singapore.
11:59If the region is not doing very well, well, then a lot of these funds, a lot of these investments, they will also dry up.
12:07And consequently, that will be detrimental to Singapore's economy.
12:12And when the economy is not doing well, then, you know, the livelihoods of the people will be affected.
12:18Politics-wise, it will also be reflected.
12:21So it's like a two-way traffic in terms of how Singapore would exert its influence on ASEAN and also how the rest of ASEAN would exert its influence on Singapore's domestic scene.
12:37If we were to look at both Malaysia and Singapore, how might the outcome of Singapore's election affect its approach to bilateral issues with Malaysia?
12:47If we're looking at, you know, issues of water, trade, connectivity, is this probably one of the priorities on the national agenda?
12:56Well, number one, of course, the bilateral relations between Malaysia and Singapore is at, I think, its all-time high, right?
13:06I mean, not only are we actively engaging each other in terms of this previously, sometimes argumentative issues, right?
13:16Such as water supplies, such as, you know, sometimes boundaries be drawn more clearly and so on.
13:26But we are also working together in forging this Johor-Singapore special economic zone, which hopefully could benefit the two countries.
13:39I think regardless of, you know, who is running either Malaysia or Singapore, all these projects which are mutually beneficial, it's not detrimental to anyone's side.
13:50Any one side is mutually beneficial, I think they would go on.
13:53Number two, I think it's also an open secret, almost an open secret that PAP is very likely to continue to be the ruling party in Singapore.
14:04There could be some ministerial portfolios reshuffle, just as there could be cabinet reshuffles in Malaysia, right?
14:13So, but still, I think the working relations between the leaders of both Malaysia and Singapore are very strong and they will continue to be very strong, yeah.
14:27Just quickly on that note on political stability, what is the palette like amongst the Singaporean public when considering political stability,
14:40but also at the same time, you know, looking at how things are moving so rapidly, fast around the world.
14:48Is this something that is a priority?
14:51Yeah, I think just like with the last round of elections amidst the COVID challenges, right?
14:59I think many Singaporean voters, they will still look forward to, shall we say, a pair of steady hands guiding them through this economically challenging times for all,
15:11not only for Singapore, but for the region as well.
15:15Of course, there will be some opposition party candidates who are voted into parliament.
15:22I think more or less, it goes without saying that PAP will still continue to run Singapore.
15:30Yeah. If we were to also just briefly compare again with Malaysia, I guess if we were to look at the national agenda,
15:40what's becoming a priority for Malaysians, we do see more and more so what's happening internationally,
15:46especially with the US-China trade war that's becoming a bigger priority.
15:50How Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the government of Malaysia, the cabinet is handling this trade war is a concern.
15:57If we were to look at Singapore and how Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is handling this,
16:03perhaps not as big of an issue if we were to look at the specific numbers of the tariff rate hikes,
16:09but is this a concern and how has Prime Minister Lawrence been handling this?
16:14Well, of course, the US imposed tariffs, it's a concern for all, right? For Malaysia, for Singapore and for most other countries in the region.
16:24You see, frankly speaking, different types of reactions to that. For example, Vietnam was very quick to promise zero tariffs against American goods, right?
16:40I think the rest of ASEAN, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia included, we are also trying our best to forge a more coordinated, concerted response to the US tariffs.
16:56We do not, in a sense, hit the US with retaliatory or, I don't know, reverse reciprocal tariffs.
17:11But I think we are negotiating with the American side, all of us, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and so on, on hopefully mutually acceptable terms.
17:24We are trying very hard, for example, to learn how the US calculated so-called tariffs against American goods.
17:34And, well, we will see what are the American demands, for example, in terms of non-tariff barriers.
17:44But, well, we will see what we can do in order to meet those demands and to thereby, once again, having the low tariffs with one another.
17:58I think both Malaysia and Singapore, we keenly feel the heat of these tariffs, but we respond in a very responsible manner.
18:10We don't just go out there and scold the Americans.
18:14Yeah, taking into account concerns such as aging society, very real concerns.
18:19But, you know, global challenges are moving ever so rapidly and are changing every single day.
18:25The options that are being offered in the manifesto, do you think this is sufficient to withstand these challenges?
18:34Well, I think all of us in the region and beyond, also in the learning process, right, as to how we could be more resilient against these tariffs and wider socio-economic challenges.
18:51But if anybody is Singapore, it's no stranger to resilience.
18:56In fact, I would characterize it as perhaps the most resilient country in the region, both economically, both in terms of food security, energy security and so on.
19:11Singapore has a very sizable foreign reserves.
19:16It has investments around the world, so it's not putting all the eggs in the same baskets and so on.
19:25So, how to translate, of course, this resilience into perhaps not better, but at least similar livelihood levels for its citizens,
19:40such that they could continue to enjoy adequate and affordable housing.
19:47Also, the adequate level of healthcare and education.
19:53I think that is indeed the challenges that are facing Singapore, and that's why this manifesto, I think it goes heavily into these concerns.
20:09And I think when the manifestos of the opposition parties are coming out, similarly, they will have all these points addressing these concerns, albeit from a different point of view.
20:24On that note of resilience, what do you think are some lessons that should be learned from the previous election coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic?
20:32Again, very unprecedented times, very tough times.
20:35Once again, faced with another major global challenge this time around, what do you think are some lessons that should be learned from the political parties?
20:43Well, again, you need to be on the ground. I think that is indeed very important. You need to really listen to what the voters, the people say are their main concerns.
20:58Some of these, of course, are very mundane, right? It's typical neighbourhood concerns, shall we say.
21:07But for a country the size of Singapore, neighbourhood suddenly assumes a very important proportion in its society.
21:17So I think all parties, that's why they are going their rounds in the last few rounds, not only PAP, but the opposition party as well, such that they know really what are the concerns of their voters, and they could devise possible solutions to try to address that.
21:38And I think not only Singapore, I think Malaysia, Indonesia, all these countries with electoral democracy, that's what nowadays a lot of leaders would have to do.
21:51Yeah.
21:52Yeah. And I guess just lastly, looking at what you said earlier about consistency, I guess, in what we might expect in the general election results, looking at Singapore's political landscape, often described as relatively stable, but perhaps slightly more limited in the democratic space.
22:15Again, looking at the size of the country as well. Do perhaps Malaysians and other nations in ASEAN still look at Singapore as a model of governance, looking at its political landscape?
22:27Well, I think at least the existing leaders of, let's say Malaysia, Indonesia, and other electoral democracy in Southeast Asia, in ASEAN countries, of course, they very much look forward to Singapore's political stability, as well as its dynamism in terms of commerce, in terms of innovation, its creativity.
22:56In terms of its finances, in terms of its research and development and so on.
23:03Singapore, traditionally, I think it's sort of a reference model for a lot of countries in Southeast Asia, and I think we should highlight the fact that, you know, we are not envious of one another.
23:19We try to learn from one another, and that's what ultimately makes ASEAN so great, because these neighbouring countries, even though they are competitive against one another, but still they try to learn from one another, and also they compete in a very positive manner to offer better incentives and services to investors, for example.
23:46And definitely competitive in the sense of who has better food, but we'll leave that for another day.
23:52Thank you so much. That's Dr. Oh Ehsan from the Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia, sharing very crucial insights on what we can expect from the Singapore general elections on the 3rd of May.
24:04You know, a lot of local, regional, and global dynamics that we can expect coming out at play during these elections. Thank you once again, Dr. Oh.
24:13Thank you very much indeed.
24:15That's all for Awani Global this week. With me, Nailah Huda will catch you again another time.