Costa and Jansen discuss whether upset wins in the NCAA Tournament will become less and less frequent in the new era of college basketball with NIL and the transfer portal.
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00:00Are you concerned about the madness?
00:02A lot of blowouts.
00:04No Cinderella's. Sign of things to come.
00:06Maybe we're overreacting, but it feels like the trend is headed that way.
00:10The little guy has it harder and harder.
00:12With NIL payments ballooning,
00:14there's no continuity for Cinderella teams to even get some footing.
00:18And the games have been blowouts.
00:21The tournament continues. The madness is over.
00:24And does that impact your interest at all?
00:262485399797
00:28Texter says March Madness for the men's side is going to start looking like the women's side.
00:34Very few blowouts.
00:36He says with NIL, more blowouts on the way.
00:39Kevin, on his way to work.
00:41So I looked at the women's bracket, and it's
00:431-2-3-4
00:451-2-3-5
00:471-2-3-5
00:481-2-3-5
00:49And those four fives were OT games, two of them.
00:52So, yeah, I think you're going to see a lot more chalk.
00:55You're going to see a lot more of that.
00:57Look, prerogative, if you think that's the better product.
00:59I think the madness was so unique and made this cool and made it different.
01:03It's a better product when you get to the round of 16,
01:06the round of eight, the final four, the national championship game.
01:10Yes, it's a better product when you have
01:13the best players playing against each other.
01:16But what makes that first round of 64 so exciting
01:21is the prospect of
01:24a 16 falling to a 1, even though it's extremely rare.
01:28But more common is a 15 and a 2.
01:30It's a 14 and a 3.
01:32How about a 13 seed?
01:34Yeah, and we always talk about the 12-5 matchup, right?
01:36That's one that our eyes were on, specifically this year,
01:39because it was UC San Diego, Michigan,
01:41but it was Clemson, who ended up falling to a 12 seed.
01:44Those are ones that have happened, but
01:47in the coming years, is the trend going to be,
01:51this year, one year of sample,
01:5413 through 16 did not advance.
01:58Next year, does it include the 12s?
02:00Does it eventually include the 11s?
02:02Is this going to be a bracket that only
02:06when you get to 16,
02:10the 1 through 5s are the only ones that legitimately have a shot?
02:14To the guy who says the product is better
02:16because the best teams are still alive,
02:18you're a basketball guy.
02:20The product is the opening weekend.
02:24If your team's still in it, like I know we're talking to Wolverine fans and Spartan fans,
02:27you're still invested because your team's in it.
02:29But if your team's out right now,
02:31I think the interest level peters out as the tournament goes on.
02:34I think the interest peaks the first 48 hours,
02:38and if we're knifing that to death,
02:41it's not good for the product.
02:43Well, and if you're only in it for your team,
02:46Michigan and Michigan State, both programs that will be able to invest in their basketball teams
02:50and the talent that's on the court.
02:54But if you're talking about the interest across the country,
02:58right now you have 16 fan bases
03:00along with college basketball fans
03:02that are invested in moving forward with the tournament.
03:05But the casuals die off after the opening weekend.
03:07Yeah.
03:08And they might not show up at all if there aren't upsets.
03:10And the casuals eventually will die off anyway.
03:12Yeah.
03:13So how much of that will affect,
03:15will the casual fan no longer want to watch the opening weekend
03:19if within the first five minutes of the game,
03:21It's over.
03:22It's done.
03:23Your Ucons, your Floridas,
03:25your, you know,
03:26the teams that are spending the most on their rosters
03:29are just simply better.
03:30Texter says you guys are completely overreacting.
03:33Besides, as much as fans love Cinderella's,
03:36they ruin your bracket and they make these next rounds boring.
03:39I suppose everybody's got their bracket alive, right?
03:43Unless you had St. John's winning it all.
03:45Sorry to...
03:46Yeah. Sorry, Lisa.
03:47Sorry, Lisa.
03:48Everybody else is doing fine.
03:49Texter says, let's take this deeper.
03:51They're looking to expand the tournament to more teams
03:53while at the same time the talent gap grows.
03:55Get ready for more blowouts in the early rounds.
03:58The expansion would be a disaster.
04:00I think, yeah, I think even before this trend,
04:02and again, it's a one-year trend.
04:04Don't know if this is what it's going to be moving forward,
04:07but if you're reading the tea leaves
04:09and if you're just simply paying the best talent,
04:13to go to 20, maybe 25 of the schools,
04:19and you're plucking the best talent,
04:21that's the issue, is you're plucking the best talent
04:24from Oakland, from the Mac schools,
04:27from, you know, pick any conference.
04:29Big Sky, MIAC, whatever, yeah.
04:31You're picking the best talent that has,
04:34whether it's developed late
04:35or it was somebody that went under the radar,
04:37now all of a sudden, hey, they are,
04:40they're playing in a conference title,
04:42and a guy goes off.
04:43Now all of a sudden, that individual,
04:45while not being able to be paid by that school,
04:49is offered 500 grand for a year?
04:53He's gone.
04:54In a lot of ways, it's the reverse Robin Hood.
04:57It's the rich stealing from the poor
04:59to build up their bank account.
05:01It's exactly what it is.
05:02Texter says it's an opportunity for the NIT
05:04to rebrand and rebuild their tournament.
05:07John and Harper Woods.
05:09And this one says it's kind of funny.
05:11A couple years ago, the narrative was
05:12the tournament sucked
05:13because there were no bluebloods.
05:14Now it sucks because there's no little guys.
05:16My takeaway is everyone just loves to bitch.
05:19Well, yeah.
05:20Some truth to that for sure.
05:22I didn't hate it two years ago
05:23with the little guys.
05:24Had a coach tell me one time,
05:25it's your God-given right to bitch and moan.
05:28It's my God-given right,
05:30whether I care or not.
05:33True.
05:34Thanks, coach.
05:35Which coach was that?
05:37Joe Pendry.
05:38Hold on, coach.
05:40Perhaps this is another text
05:42we're getting a lot today.
05:43The committee's doing a better job
05:44seeding teams.
05:45Maybe that's the explanation.
05:46Do you buy that?
05:50It's possible.
05:51That could be part of the equation.
05:52There's a lot of things that play
05:54into this equation,
05:55but when it comes down to it,
05:56if you don't have,
05:58if you never have a 14 that ever wins,
06:00you never have a 13,
06:02and we start moving that bar,
06:06this year it's 13 through 16.
06:08Do you include 12s next year?
06:10And I don't think it's because
06:11the NCAA is just so good
06:13at seeding teams.
06:14Has that ever been the argument?
06:16What is self-serving?
06:17I mean, I know this isn't...
06:18Yeah, of course,
06:19the committee's just perfect
06:20at their job.
06:21Oh, the data that says
06:22this team is a four seed,
06:24they're perfect where they are.
06:26It would be great, though,
06:27if they tweeted out,
06:28we finally got it right, guys.
06:29This year, we did it.
06:30Perfect lap.
06:31Perfect lap.
06:34Texture says,
06:35oh, no, not my bracket.
06:36Who cares?
06:37Upsets make the product.
06:39That's more of what I'm saying.
06:40There are a lot of people,
06:41especially on that first weekend,
06:42that love the upset.
06:44Some people saying
06:45it's an overreaction.
06:46The little guys will still be there.
06:47I don't like the new portal rules.
06:49I'm all for players getting themselves
06:51to elevated programs.
06:53Look, I'm not mad
06:54at any of the individual players.
06:56No, and we can revisit this next year.
06:58Yeah.
06:59We could be way off.
07:00For the first time,
07:01I would be wrong.
07:02Certainly not for me, either.
07:03But this is,
07:04one year does not make a trend.
07:06No, but we're seeing one year,
07:08and we're seeing
07:09where the sport's headed,
07:10and we're, I think,
07:11trying to add two plus two
07:12to get four.
07:13Right.
07:14And if you are taking
07:16all the best players
07:18from those schools,
07:19not that they're going to be starters
07:21on Alabama,
07:23or USC, UCLA,
07:26Michigan, Michigan State,
07:28you know, UConn,
07:30but you're talking about guys
07:31that maybe they were the headliner
07:33at those schools.
07:34They're not getting paid,
07:35but if I'm going to get paid
07:37to be the second guy off the bench,
07:41these are 18 to 21-year-old kids,
07:44and you offer them 500 grand
07:46or somewhere in the ballpark,
07:48the pennies of 250 grand
07:51for a year.
07:52Only.
07:53Right.
07:54They're jumping ship.
07:55I don't blame,
07:56nobody's blaming the players,
07:57but I definitely don't blame the players.
07:58Like, there's an odd situation
07:59with Michigan right now
08:00where they're still playing,
08:01and they have a player
08:02who's entered the portal.
08:04We'll talk about it a little bit
08:05in the nine o'clock hour here.
08:06I don't blame the player.
08:07It's a lousy situation.
08:08The portal opens during the tournament.
08:10I mean, the system's
08:11not designed well here.
08:13It's the same thing
08:14as the Penn State quarterback.
08:15Yeah.
08:16Entering it while they're
08:17in the college football playoffs.