The Israel defense minister told Hamas that the IDF would take "annexed" and "permanent" control of parts of the Gaza Strip unless Hamas hands over the remaining hostages.
The Israeli military also says it launched airstrikes on several locations in Lebanon on Saturday, after multiple rockets were fired from there toward northern Israel. LiveNOW's Austin Westfall discusses the latest in the Middle East with Dr. Alon Burstein, Tufts University visiting assistant professor.
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The Israeli military also says it launched airstrikes on several locations in Lebanon on Saturday, after multiple rockets were fired from there toward northern Israel. LiveNOW's Austin Westfall discusses the latest in the Middle East with Dr. Alon Burstein, Tufts University visiting assistant professor.
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Raw and unfiltered. Watch a non-stop stream of breaking news, live events and stories across the nation. Limited commentary. No opinion. Experience LiveNOW from FOX.
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NewsTranscript
00:00All right, welcome back.
00:01I'm Austin Westphal.
00:03Let's get the latest on the Middle East.
00:04Dr. Ilone Burstein is standing by, as always, Ilone.
00:07It's good to see you.
00:09There's a lot to get to, as always.
00:11We want to start off with something that I know you've been following closely this week.
00:16On Friday, Israel's defense minister said that he had instructed the military to, quote,
00:21seize more ground in Gaza and threatened to annex part of the territory unless Hamas released
00:26all hostages, living and dead, that are still held in the enclave.
00:30Ilone, what do we make of the words seize and annex?
00:34How easy is it for Israel to do such in Gaza?
00:39Good to see you, Austin.
00:40Yeah, what we've seen really is an escalation, a gradual escalation in the rhetoric of Israel
00:47with regards to how it intends to punish Hamas for what it considers walking away from the
00:53negotiations.
00:54Hamas is saying it's still open to negotiations.
00:55We can talk a little bit about who's standing where on the negotiations.
00:58Originally, Israel said that it is going to start the military pressure and reignite the
01:02military campaign in order to bring Hamas back to the negotiating table.
01:07Then the rhetoric started to change, and the minister of defense said that the military
01:10pressure is going to continue until all hostages are released.
01:14That's different.
01:15That's different than coming to negotiations.
01:16That's saying until all the hostages are released.
01:20Then a later thing was said, this was said on Friday, the minister of defense upped the
01:23ante again and added two things.
01:25First, he said, like you said, that territory is going to be taken over and annexed by Israel
01:31as a punishment for Hamas, as long as Hamas has not released hostages, the Palestinians
01:35are going to be seen to be losing territory.
01:37But importantly, in that statement, he also added a second thing, and he said until all
01:42the hostages are released and Hamas is destroyed, that's really upping the ante.
01:49Now, is that actually going to happen?
01:51At this point, it seems unlikely for Israel to annex territory from the occupied Palestinian
01:55territories from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is not that easy.
01:59Israel has held the territory in the West Bank since 1967, and in the Gaza Strip, it
02:03held it since 1967 until 2005.
02:06It's always threatened to annex it.
02:08It never actually has, except for East Jerusalem.
02:11It never actually has.
02:12Such a move would run up against a lot of internal legal problems within Israel.
02:17It would come up before the Israeli High Court of Justice.
02:19It's also questionable if the Trump administration would support this.
02:24Even if we take the most radical interpretation of Trump's plan for the Gaza Strip, if we
02:29say that it is the complete ethnic cleansing of all Palestinians, driving them elsewhere
02:33and rebuilding Gaza and the Riviera of the Middle East, in his plan, that does not then
02:37belong to Israel.
02:39That's not Israel expanding its borders.
02:40So I take this more as a threat and something that's meant to cater to Israel's more right-wing
02:48hawkish coalition, some of which want to annex the Gaza Strip.
02:51I take that more as a threat and looking at that rather than something that's actually
02:54going to happen.
02:55Even if it would happen, it's not going to happen in the next week or two.
02:58That is something that would take years.
02:59At this point, Israel is simply upping the ante, trying without actually retaking the
03:04entire Gaza Strip, trying to constantly threaten and say, look, if you don't, we're done playing
03:09games.
03:10And that's just how I read this rhetoric.
03:11Yeah.
03:12As you know, this week, the IDF once again moved ground forces into Gaza.
03:16How do we know about how much Hamas has rehabilitated during the temporary truce?
03:20Did it likely give them time to reorganize alone?
03:23Is the IDF targeting things on the ground there that weren't there before?
03:28So when we think about Hamas in the Gaza Strip, we really have to think about two different
03:33systems.
03:34There is the political system.
03:35That is the system that was the governing body of Hamas.
03:37That includes everything that we think of in a government.
03:40I know that when we think of Hamas, we think of a terror group and it is labeled as a terror
03:43group.
03:45When it governed the Gaza Strip, it also had civil servants.
03:48It also had postal workers.
03:50It also had sewage workers, it had educational workers, it had hospital workers.
03:54All of these were part of the Hamas government.
03:57Then we have Hamas's military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, and the two, even though they support
04:02each other, do really operate sort of distinctly.
04:06One of the interesting things that Israel has done as it returned to fighting now in
04:10the last week, is it specifically did not target Hamas's military infrastructure.
04:15Instead, it focused almost all of its attacks on Hamas's civilian infrastructure, the attempt
04:21to rebuild its governing apparatus in the Gaza Strip.
04:24Among the list of those who were assassinated is Issam Dalis.
04:27He was the Hamas Prime Minister in the Gaza Strip.
04:31Others are the Minister of Interior in charge of the police.
04:33So Israel really focused its attacks on the Hamas governing capabilities.
04:38I think possibly out of sort of looking more forward, looking ahead, Israel's going to
04:43encounter the Al-Qassam Brigades no matter what, the military wing, but the governing
04:47apparatus really what Israel would like to stop Hamas from rebuilding.
04:50Now has Hamas managed to rebuild?
04:53In some way, both of those apparatuses, the governing system and the military wing have
04:57been rehabilitating themselves throughout the entire time.
05:01But mostly during the truce, it was the governing apparatus, the political wing that really
05:05rebuilt itself because the Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing throughout the entire war
05:10has been rebuilding itself.
05:11It is constantly losing troops, it's training new troops, it's losing ground, it is gaining
05:16ground elsewhere.
05:17According to intelligence reports in Israel and the United States, Israel managed to kill
05:21between 14,000 and 17,000 militants in the Gaza Strip.
05:25Hamas during the war, not during the truce, during the active fighting, was able to recruit
05:30between 10,000 and 15,000 new fighters.
05:33So the Al-Qassam Brigades is constantly rebuilding itself.
05:37What really was not able to rebuild itself during the active fighting is the governing
05:41apparatus.
05:42The entire civil infrastructure collapsed.
05:44There was no such thing as social services, no such thing as police officers.
05:48One of the very basic functions that happened when the truce started is Hamas mayors came
05:52out of hiding and started directing traffic, like the roads are destroyed, no one knows
05:56where to go.
05:57It's hard for us to sort of conceptualize in the Western world.
06:00But if you think about where you're living, all of a sudden the entire roads are bombed
06:03down.
06:04Now people are starting to drive.
06:05You need basic police officers.
06:07That's really what Hamas is invested in, rebuilding since the truce, primarily because it wants
06:13to show Israel, the Arab world, the Western world, and mostly the population of Gaza,
06:18we're still here.
06:19It's been 15 months, but still you haven't instated any other government in Gaza.
06:23So guess what?
06:24We're the only government in Gaza.
06:26One more thing I'll say about that, that is very, very important.
06:29During the truce, over 25,000 aid trucks carrying food, water, gas, cooking oil, humanitarian
06:36aid, shelters, entered into the Gaza Strip.
06:39There is no other governing apparatus in Gaza to manage and organize this.
06:43There is the United Nations, but Israel is not working with the United Nations Relief
06:47and Work Agency, UNRWA, because it says that it supports Hamas.
06:50There are other smaller aid agencies, but bottom line, you need a governing apparatus
06:55to organize and manage this.
06:57Some would regret it, we all say, the only governing apparatus in the Gaza Strip is Hamas.
07:01Now aid is cut off from the Gaza Strip.
07:04Guess what?
07:05The one that manages to largely take hold of the humanitarian aid and then distribute
07:08it, the one that's the only functional government at this point is still the Hamas apparatus.
07:13Tough situation.
07:15Live look at Gaza, early morning hours there in the Middle East.
07:19Not only Gaza do we have our eyes on, we've also, for the first time in some time, we've
07:24been looking up north as well.
07:28Israel struck Lebanon on Saturday, and I think we do have a tweet from the IDF saying such
07:33for our producers here.
07:35Israel did strike in Lebanon on Saturday.
07:37It was in retaliation for rockets targeting Israel.
07:40It killed six people, including a child, in the heaviest exchange of fire alone since
07:44the ceasefire with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah began almost four months ago.
07:49The rockets fired from Lebanon were the second ones launched since December.
07:54Is it feeling like the ceasefire up north is in danger of breaking?
07:59To be completely honest, I wouldn't go that far yet.
08:02What happened in the current situation is the fighting started up again.
08:06Now, when the fighting had started between Israel and Hamas back on October 7th, 2023,
08:12everyone in the region was called to action and Hezbollah, starting October 8th, a day
08:16after the war broke out, started firing its rockets.
08:19And the Houthis, a month later, also got involved.
08:22Now Hezbollah has largely been knocked out of the picture as a result of the IDF and
08:27Mossad activity that happened, primarily, again, the Beeper attack and all those things
08:30that we talked about for months.
08:32Hezbollah has largely been knocked out of the picture.
08:35Ever since the fighting returned, Hezbollah made a lot of statements.
08:40None of them threatened that they are going to start firing missiles again.
08:44None of them threatened that they're going to be active again.
08:46They condemned.
08:47Hezbollah is really, really busy trying to lick its wounds.
08:51It is trying to rebuild its political strength in Lebanon.
08:54You know, I always say we have to look to internal politics.
08:57Hezbollah absolutely cannot afford another engagement with the IDF right now.
09:02Then all of a sudden, fighting returns, and we have the launching of six rockets, three
09:07of them crashed in Lebanon, and three of them made it over to the Israeli northern town
09:11of Metula.
09:12The IDF is going to respond to this as though Hezbollah has broken the ceasefire.
09:16In truth, Hezbollah put out a message within an hour screaming, it is not us.
09:22It was not us.
09:23Please do not attack us.
09:25We are not violating the ceasefire.
09:26More than that, they pledged to work with the Lebanese government in order to try to
09:30resolve the situation.
09:31You know, it's up for grabs if you believe them or don't believe them.
09:34I will say that Hezbollah at this point has very little interest in taking part in the
09:39fighting.
09:40And more than that, if they do, then they have no interest in denying that.
09:42Then they are in a lose-lose situation.
09:45So Israel is retaliating against Hezbollah as though it came from Hezbollah, because
09:50as far as Israel is concerned, they said rockets coming from Lebanon, we're hitting back.
09:53We're hitting back because that's a violation.
09:54We don't care who it was.
09:56It was this, in fact, Hezbollah.
09:58I would bet probably not.
10:00Hamas does have a presence in southern Lebanon.
10:02Palestinian Islamic Jihad has a presence in Lebanon.
10:04Amal, another group, has a presence in Lebanon.
10:07I will say that the Lebanese military also tried very hard to show that they are taking
10:11this seriously, that they're not going to let the situation deteriorate again.
10:14They quickly swung into action.
10:16They have claimed to have already found the three launchers from which these rockets were
10:20launched.
10:21And interestingly, those were found north of the Litani River.
10:24The reason that's important is because the entire deal between Israel and Lebanon says
10:29that the Lebanese army is going to purge southern Lebanon, south of the Litani River, of any
10:34hostile activities.
10:35The Lebanese military is trying very hard to say, look, this happened in northern Lebanon.
10:38No one is violating the deal.
10:40Please, let's not get there.
10:42I think that's how Hezbollah wants to see it.
10:43Lebanon wants to see it.
10:44It remains to be seen if Israel is going to accept this and say, OK, another group fired
10:48the rockets, so we'll spiral it down or not.
10:51We're probably not seeing a full escalation there at this point, but obviously it remains
10:54to be seen.
10:55If more rockets come, we may be in a different setting.
10:57Before we go, I'll pose a wide-ranging question to you.
11:00What are we watching for this week, whether it's on the Hamas front, whether it's on the
11:04Lebanon front, whether it's on the Houthi front, whether it's something else?
11:08What are you looking ahead to this week?
11:11So really what I'm looking to this week is the focus is between Israel and Hamas.
11:17And I'll say also internal Israeli politics and what's happening in that arena.
11:22Because as I said, what's happening between Israel and Hezbollah, there might be more
11:25rockets, but chances are we're not going to see a complete breakdown of the deal.
11:28At worst, we'll see the idea of carrying out airstrikes in retaliation.
11:32The Houthis every two or three days are launching ballistic missiles at Israel.
11:36I don't belittle that.
11:37I am just saying the United States has asked Israel to not retaliate.
11:40So chances are we're going to see the same dynamic, ballistic missiles coming, the United
11:43States responding to Yemen.
11:44What we're really going to see and what we should be looking at is what is going to be
11:48the development in the Gaza Strip.
11:50Something that I mentioned I think the last time we spoke, it is unprecedented historically
11:54and internationally.
11:55Israel has invaded the Gaza Strip.
11:57Gaza Strip is controlled largely by Hamas, a terror group.
12:00Hamas has not retaliated.
12:02They have not engaged the IDF at all.
12:04They haven't fought them on the ground.
12:05They haven't set off roadside bombs.
12:08They've sent a couple of rockets and that is it.
12:10That is unprecedented for a terror group to just be saying, okay, you can take over territory.
12:15We're still going to ask for negotiations.
12:17Really the next couple of days are going to be the ones that determined what's the trajectory
12:20of the next phase.
12:22Is Hamas going to say, okay, enough is enough.
12:24The IDF has now pushed into too much territory and we're going to start engaging them and
12:27then we'll see full swing back into the war.
12:30Or is Hamas going to continue to say, okay, we're still calling on negotiating parties.
12:35That is going to start mounting pressure on Israel.
12:37The United States has already sent some signals that they're not happy with just a return
12:40to fire with no aim and no end.
12:43And that will mount more pressure on Israel to possibly spiral down.
12:46The last thing is, again, internal politics in Israel are really coming to a boil.
12:51Tens of thousands of people were protesting in the streets because of internal things
12:55that have to do with the dismissal of the head of the General Security Service and things
12:57like that.
12:58But we're starting to see some spillover already into people saying, and this war is futile
13:04and we're not getting anywhere with the war and if the political pressure mounts there,
13:07also going to be one of the big game changers.
13:09So I'm looking at Hamas in Gaza and internal politics in Israel.
13:13Alon uploads his own updates on his personal YouTube channel related to the Middle East.
13:18Alon, as always, good to see you.
13:19Have a good rest of your weekend.
13:21Have a good night.