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00:00Hearing about the biggest set of strikes from the US, wave of strikes across the country in Yemen
00:05targeting Houthi rebel positions. It started on Saturday, the biggest strikes in three years at
00:10least, when the Saudi-led air war was ongoing. Now Iran is playing the innocent victim
00:17in controlling rogue terrorists in Yemen. That's the latest claim from President Trump today as
00:22the US military continues its air assaults with more strikes earlier today. According to the
00:28Houthi militants, the White House warning too that Iran will be held responsible if the Houthis
00:33return fire. Well the Islamist group supported by Tehran claims its actions are in support of
00:39Hamas in Gaza and will continue striking at US vessels. Now we're going to talk a little bit
00:45more about the root to the fruit of this story, the complications, the contradictions and try to
00:49see what's at the heart of events. Let's go to London. Let's bring in Andreas Krieg, Associate
00:54Professor of Defence Studies at King's Colleges University and a fellow at the Institute of
00:59Middle Eastern Studies. Great to have you on the programme Andreas. Let's first of all start with
01:04with your reading of the situation right now, this huge wave of strikes.
01:09So certainly as you already rightly mentioned, these are extensive strikes that have been
01:14launched all over the country. Certainly the boldest strikes that we've seen from the US
01:17since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Certainly far more extensive, far-reaching and also
01:22targeting directly not just military facilities but also trying to target
01:26Houthi leaders. That is certainly a major escalation from the US point of view,
01:30but I would see this within the overall context of what Trump is trying to achieve with this
01:35mega deal, which would include obviously the GCC, would include Iran and also obviously
01:41the Houthis to an extent. But instead of going after one of the root causes, which is obviously
01:46the Gaza war and trying to solve this, he's now going after one of the symptoms. And obviously
01:50over the last 18 months or so, we've seen the Houthis really being emboldened
01:54by the war in Gaza and by the response by Israel, United States and the UK
02:00striking the Houthis in Yemen. That has actually been very counterproductive. And what we've seen
02:04over the last years as well, since the war that was led by the Saudis, is that the Houthis are
02:09not really responsive to deterrence by punishment. And hence, usually instead of just putting
02:16pressure on them and changing their behaviour, I think that will just further embolden them.
02:21Let's go through some of the areas that were struck, Andreas. So we go down to the,
02:25this is since Saturday, the southern point of the territory that they hold in Yemen,
02:28the al-Badr governorate in, I think it's Maliras as well, all the way to Sadr in the north,
02:33Marib, Hadja, Danmar, these multiple locations, more than 50 people killed, we're told. The US
02:39saying that they've managed to kill a number of, quote, senior members of the militant group
02:43as well within that. But there's a strange, there's something strange going on within this.
02:47And I wonder if you can pinpoint it for me. It's the fact that there hasn't been
02:51Houthi strikes since the ceasefire began in Gaza. What's your reading of why the US strike started
03:00is entirely down to trying to pressurise Iran on its nuclear situation?
03:05Well, I mean, this is part of Trump's gambit, right? He usually starts out with quite a lot
03:09of pressure, trying to pressure a negotiation partner into a corner, into a position of
03:14weakness from which then Trump wants to engage through discussions and negotiations. The thing
03:20is, though, I think Trump understands as well, I mean, the US understands, the US military
03:24understands that there won't be a military solution to the Houthi problem. The Houthis
03:28have been proven to be extremely resilient. You know, even if you, they've been able to sustain
03:33years and years of strikes from the Saudi-led coalition as well, they have not been strategically
03:38weakened. Even in terms of degradation, the network of the Houthis, which it is essentially,
03:43has not been substantially degraded. So taking all of this into account, I think Trump knows
03:49that there isn't a lot to be achieved militarily on the ground against the Houthis. You can degrade.
03:54But in the end of the day, this is supposed to be the opening gambit to a greater negotiation.
03:58I think what Trump is getting wrong here, though, is that the Houthis, yes,
04:01they are funded by Iran. And obviously the technology is Iranian technology. But after
04:05all, they're a Yemeni actor. They're deeply ingrained, embedded in the local community.
04:11And as such, you know, they're not vitally relying just on the Iranians to switch them
04:17on and off. I mean, they have a great degree of agency and autonomy. And I think what we've seen
04:21over the last six weeks or so, ever since Trump came into power, the Iranians have really told
04:26the Houthis to keep their feet still, to remain calm, do not escalate, don't invite any retaliation
04:32from the United States. And the Houthis seem to have, even though they haven't struck,
04:36their narrative has certainly been one of we're escalating now, we want to put more pressure on
04:40Israel. And Trump is someone who responds to narrative with further narrative. You pressure
04:44him, he's going to double pressure you. That's kind of how he works. Briefly, we have about a
04:49minute, but I do want to hear your thoughts on this. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State in the US,
04:53saying this weekend that they will carry on until they've ended the capability of the Houthis to
04:57attack. I'm guessing you, in what you've just said, you're not sure that that's going to be the case.
05:03No, I mean, a lot, I mean, they're a low tech operator. I mean, they have a lot of high tech
05:07stuff that they get from Iran. But a lot of the drone technology, even the missile technology is
05:11fairly low tech. And my point is, as long as the Houthis have access to some of the weaponry that
05:15they can reverse engineer to use against shipping in, you know, around the Bab al-Mandab, they will
05:20use it. So essentially, it has to be a political settlement. And even striking Iran will not make
05:25any difference on, will have not any major impact on how the Houthis operate around the Bab al-Mandab.
05:30Great to talk to you, Andreas. Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor at the Defence
05:35Studies Department at King's College in London. Nice to talk to you this evening.
05:40Let's go from there. Let's start with