Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00The U.S. says it will be ready to help defend Israel if Iran launches an attack on the Jewish
00:06state.
00:07A response from Tehran is expected after the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail
00:11Haniyeh last week in Tehran, which is thought to be the work of Israel.
00:16The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, though, saying he is determined to stand against
00:21Iran.
00:22We're going to talk more about this now with Doug Herbert, who joins me on the set.
00:25Doug, we have been here before in this Mideast conflict, these fears of this spiraling into
00:30a broader regional conflict.
00:32This time, though, it does seem like the lines are drawn a bit deeper in the sand.
00:36I mean, how close are we to a dramatic escalation?
00:38Yeah.
00:39Let's compare escalation watches, if you will.
00:41Back in April, you'll remember that unprecedented retaliation by Iran, which it fired around
00:47300 crews and ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, missiles which were deflected by
00:53Israel with the help of the U.S. and also a little bit of help from Jordan.
00:57This time around is different in the sense that the reports we're getting and the assessments
01:03we're getting is that Iran has an ambition right now to have what's called a decisive
01:08attack.
01:09It's insisted that it is imperative to respond, retaliate decisively, namely because Hamas's
01:15political director was assassinated.
01:17They're blaming it on Israel.
01:18Israel hasn't acknowledged it, but on its own soil in Tehran.
01:22So what might we see?
01:23Well, you know, the Institute for the Study of War, we often cite them when we're talking
01:27about the war in Ukraine, but they also very closely follow developments around the Mideast.
01:32And in their latest report, they're basically saying that what is what their assessment
01:36is, is of a coordinated, large scale drone and missile attack by Iran, but also by what's
01:44called the access of resistance.
01:46That is Iran's regional proxies, whether it be Hezbollah, whether it be the Houthis, whether
01:50it be Iran backed Iraqi militia, acting in tandem in a sense to retaliate for what they
01:56perceive as these unwarranted attacks by Israel.
02:00So what it might come in the form of is compared to April, when in April it was targeted on
02:05these two remote sites in Israel and in Israel alone.
02:09This time there might be more projectiles and they might be that is missiles and drones
02:14and fired not exclusively from Iran, but perhaps also from places much closer to Israel, such
02:19as Lebanon, such as Syria.
02:22And that could change the equation because the missiles would travel much shorter distances,
02:27which imply that they would be harder to deflect in time.
02:31They had to travel much further when they were fired from Iran.
02:35Also changing the location of the strikes of the targets themselves.
02:41So more of a guesswork.
02:42Yes, there could be one target or there could be several targets at the same time.
02:47And you could also see perhaps the possibility of Iran targeting U.S. forces in the region,
02:53especially in eastern Syria.
02:55Once again, according to the Institute for the Study of War, and also on an increase
03:01in drone and missile attacks over several days, as opposed to just a one day one off
03:07attack, as we saw in April, and then it was sort of over.
03:10They said, we've done our retaliation.
03:11You've done your counter retaliation.
03:13It's over.
03:14It might be in stages and the logic behind that being so Iran could learn lessons from
03:18each stage of the attack and hone, fine tune its retaliation as it goes along.
03:23These are all scenarios.
03:25You might say they're all worst case scenarios.
03:27And you might say that there's still time to avoid any of that.
03:30But I will say this.
03:31The U.S., the commander of U.S. Central Command has arrived in the region.
03:35A similar scenario to back in April on the eve of the Iran retaliation.
03:39Then the U.S. commander of CENTCOM also arrived in the region.
03:43A lot of the same chips are lined up.
03:45Doug, what about international moves to hold Iran back, particularly in regard to Jordan?
03:49Yeah, once again, it's like trying to read the tea leaves.
03:52But if you're going to do it, the Wall Street Journal in the U.S. is reporting that Iran
03:55has essentially rebuffed, rejected the attempts at mediation at the calls for restraint from
04:03U.S. and Arab diplomats, that is to hold, prevent Iran from retaliating, hold it back.
04:10More specifically, Jordan's foreign minister, and this is very interesting, traveled to
04:15Tehran over the weekend to meet with its acting foreign minister.
04:19Why is that big?
04:20Because first of all, you haven't had that type of high level trip in about 20 years
04:24from Jordan.
04:25Jordan has a diplomatic tightrope back to walk in the region.
04:28On the one hand, it has longstanding diplomatic ties with Israel.
04:32It's an ally of the United States and one which did shoot down some missiles during
04:36that Iranian retaliation back in April.
04:39Jordan being in the line literally of fire between Iran and Israel.
04:42So it's very wary of that.
04:43But at the same time, it has a large Palestinian population on its own soil.
04:47It's extremely wary of seeing as being too chummy with Israel and the U.S.
04:52So part of the foreign minister's presumable message in Iran this weekend was we condemn,
04:57just as you do, firmly, absolutely, the assassinations, the killings of these Iran backed leaders
05:05in the region.
05:06At the same time, we beg, we pray.
05:09Hold your hand, please.
05:10Trying to prevent retaliation here.
05:12We don't want some wider war, which would be an absolute catastrophic scenario for the
05:15wider region.
05:17So very diplomatic.
05:18Is it going to bear fruit?
05:19We don't know.
05:20So far, there are no signs that Iran is going to back down from its insistence.
05:24And of course, all of this is coming amid reports of a growing rift between the U.S.,
05:29Israel's biggest ally, and Benjamin Netanyahu.
05:32We've been talking about this for weeks and months now, right, of this sense of exasperation
05:36on the part of the Biden administration, even as it continues to publicly support,
05:41quote, Israel's right to defend itself, even as the U.S. moves military equipment into
05:46the region, i.e. warships and jet fighters, to presumably help Israel again in any defense
05:51against an Iranian retaliation.
05:56Joe Biden reportedly made a phone call, spoke to Netanyahu last week.
06:00The administration says it had never been informed of the killing of the Hamas political
06:03director.
06:05Israel hasn't publicly acknowledged that.
06:07But I think there's an exasperation.
06:08The U.S. has been trying to work towards a ceasefire.
06:11It doesn't see this as helping at all.
06:13Some people privately think that perhaps Netanyahu is making a mockery of those ceasefire efforts
06:17and really doesn't even want to strike a ceasefire, something Israel obviously would deny.
06:21Thank you for that.
06:22France 24's Doug Herbert.